Ashbringer

... I'll have to think about it, but I might be able to do this. Not 100% sure how busy my summers will be.

I think the thread might end in 5-10 minutes so trying to keep this short Currently we're in a three-way tie, so one of Sart and Terrisman are up for Stilling. And I'd rather Terrisman not be Stilled, I think. I think I mostly trust Terris and BridgeBoi, Sart's been looking better but overall somewhat less so. I somewhat trust Wiz and Steel, and don't trust Aeternum and not really TwinStorm. Not sure if I have a solid reason for why for each, because a lot of Aet might just be playstyle differences, but they seem to set up precedent for them to take a lot of different actions on later cycles, and the whole keeping suspicion on TUF while voting elsewhere. STINK is a ghost as usual and doesn't really fit in the meta of the elim team but could be something. Illwei... not really sure. I didn't trust Gaea but Illwei's seemed mostly like Illwei, and also I could never read Illwei to save my life lol. Anyway, if I get NKed please look at Aet and TwinStorm next cycle.

Unless Illwei's Elim - which I'm not sure of, just that Gaea had strange interactions with Drake - then no Elim was in danger for most of the turn. So not exactly something where we can easily predict where Elims are.

Well, that's not particularly what I wanted to happen. Might have been a good idea to set up a Still on Jo, since he'd be leaving anyway, but too late now. Yes, I did. Because so far the only reason I could see people gave for Stilling him was the fact that he had immunity. That's... not a very good reason, in my opinion. Several games so far in SE have had Thugs who have that extra life, which BridgeBoi is somewhat an equivalent of currently - and while an Elim Thug is annoying to deal with for the Village, so is a Village Thug for the Elims, and just stripping an extra life from a Thug is spending another vote round not doing anything. But also, my vote was also meant to make more people vote, considering that we're supposed to have everyone vote for the Seat every Night Cycle and... five people didn't? I'll vote Illwei for the moment.

Because if BB is Village, them being temporarily unkillable is fine? And I haven’t seen any reason to think they’re Elim. Sart, mainly. Maybe Jo, but since Jo’s slated for a PH and my Sitter it’s hard for me to tell. But also if votes are where I think they are, leaving BB as the lowest could start Stilling basically anyone, and I don’t want a random Stilling on Steel or Terrisman.

Just a note that we do need to vote today for the Seat. Why do people want BridgeBoi Stilled, besides to just take out the extra life? They've been pretty Null for me.

I think you're mixing "start looking elsewhere" as a sense of trying to find other suspicions vs a sense of just dropping E!TUF as an exe possibility entirely. For the most part I wanted to hunt through other things (NKA on my end, where people voted or discussed on another) to see if new info changes anything, rather than just pile votes on TUF and then sit on our hands for 40 hours or something. Hopping back on TUF was always an option within that, especially since I didn't really agree with the other choices of pushes. TwinStorm vs Worldhopper felt more like it stemmed from a miscommunication than anything. Obfuscating the two is to some degree the idea, because if I make a really obvious net for Elims to jump into to try and save TUF, then it doesn't work so well. Eh, sometimes I do a lot of it, sometimes not. Depends how mechanically intense the game is and/or how much someone like Kas is pushing me to do NKA but again, I'd say I have plenty of reason to vote Elim - just not as much reason to suspect him for the Teldris kill. Wiz has jumped on trains faster than I have though, yeah. (We tend to use Deepwolf, as Elim doesn't have a great simple equivalent. Generally MU/traditional mafia lingo works for people as well here.) (... I take it back, I have no idea what this means.) (Elim reads or E!Reads, yeah.) Eh, maybe - but if the idea was to get the votes close enough to entice an Elim to swap the votes, are you sure you could then back-swap before the cycle closed? Because right now you're the closest to doing so. Tbh, if it is E!TOW, there's not a lot of ability for the Elims to call shots on other trains. And having an E/E set of wagons has happened before, whether by the Elim's design or not. But I do need to go back to the TwinStorm vs Worldhopper again as well. ... I thought I had something to respond to Steel here but maybe not

Hmm

Got a somewhat-meta-ish question. Do you think an E!You, who decided to do a random kill and had the rand land on Teldris, would follow through with the rand or do a reroll? Because we've had a good amount of random-Elim kills. And those are great when the randomness lands on good kills, or even confusing kills, but not so much when they land on bad kills. I still don't really trust Aeternum but I do think we need to exe The Unknown Flame. Honestly the votes between TwinStorm and Worldhopper seem more like a miscommunication, but I also don't really like putting TUF in an "might exe later" basket when we've got other things to do. @Mark IV @DrakeMarshall you around to say hi?

FWIW, Kas mentioned in our Ajah doc that V!Kas and V!Sart clash a bit, sometimes more than V!Kas E!Sart. How much he considers this clashing or not, not entirely sure. I'm not really familiar with their play, either. Which is part of the problem. But they also seem to fit the profile best of someone who'd go for a newer player first, and their response to that has been... muted? Not really sure about that. Was hoping Aet or someone else would bite, but instead the vote count looks a bit all over the place, and more interesting things are happening elsewhere to some degree. But I also need to think a bit more on who, then.

Hmm. Vote Count, I believe: Mark IV (2): Kasimir, Sart The Unknown Flame (2): The Wandering Wizard, BridgeBoi Aeternum (1): Ashbringer TwinStorm (1): Steeldancer STINK (1): Aeternum ThatOneWorldhopper (1): Terrisman Sart (1): TwinStorm

Process of Elimination. Or as I used it, PoE Bandwagon - just exeing people in a predefined order based on who’s most suspicious without a ton of afterthought. Good for finding pesky last Elims through a lot of dead Villagers, bad for finding deepwolves who got themselves nicely trusted. My post-D1 PoE probably wants TUF/TwinStorm dead and flipped and then Sart Stilled, but that’s based largely on D1/N1 and you still need to take in new information. Especially on D2 lol. Which is why I’d like to start looking away from TUF.

Ah. That makes sense, then. I tend to be... somewhat oblivious to hintings, so I think I clocked "Steel has outside reason for being upset at this NK" but not what the reason was. I think I do trust Steel, for the most part, between this and D1. ^ Very much so this. It's also why I will often doubt my own NKAs, because sometimes my brain decides "new players won't choose a kill" when sometimes they just very much will. Tried not to do that this time, but yeah I'm not good at detecting an entire Elim team unless they all are in agreement on who to NK, which they're usually not (especially for low-info kills and especially especially new player ones). Interestingly close compared to mine: TwinStorm, Aeternum, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Sart, Jo And yes, it never really gets as narrow as I'd like either Well, there's also the old phrase "don't count your Elims until they've hatched". I for one don't trust TUF, but I'm inclined to look for a different execution for a few reasons - IMO this kill doesn't fit him (too much), losing a few days of discussion even if we think we've found an Elim tends to hurt more than help, and also running the Village over with a PoE Bandwagon is... something that's been done multiple times (and by me multiple times) but tends to stifle discussion even more. Honestly - mostly for that reason, to save you. I'd have preferred to go on Gaea over Polly if the vote counts were equal, because I still wanted some answer for the earlier Drake weirdness, but the push on you felt wrong and Polly was a big catalyst in that. Does D1ing Kas / the most active player ever feel right, I'm not sure.

Ah. That makes sense with what I’ve seen, yeah. (And is also it’s own weird category of mafia-experienced but perhaps in a different meta… maybe. Not hunting new players feels fairly universal?)

Well... haven't seen that happen since a certain mechanical incident. And this is not that, likely. I will note, just because I've had the thought myself - sometimes it's hard for returning players like me or Steel (or to a much greater degree, Joe/Gaea) to tell who's a brand new player versus a somewhat-newer-but-not-brand-new player vs something else. I thought Mark was a newer player myself, instead of a greatly-returning player. ... that doesn't really hold when Teldris had seven posts, though. Hmm. Let's try to do the thing that I'm allegedly good at, then Wiz, TwinStorm, Aeternum, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Worldhopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo I'm going to kick a few out here - if it's E!Kas I'll eat my hat, and Drake fully wasn't on this Night turn despite the game having inactivity penalties - and also I think fundamentally neither would kill a new player (more on that later though). Wiz, TwinStorm, Aeternum, Ash, Steel, TUF, Worldhopper, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo That's a lot of people! So let's sort people into some arbitrary buckets. In terms of experience, Wiz, Ash, Steel, TUF, Sart, and STINK (and Kas/Drake) are experienced players. TwinStorm, Worldhopper, BridgeBoi, and Terrisman are much newer players. Mark, Gaea, and Jo are returning players. (Aeternum is... I think experienced/returning? But in a similar space as Mark where I'm not really sure how much in either category.) In terms of other things - Wiz, TwinStorm, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, and Worldhopper all commented on how weird it is to kill a brand new player D1. Aet, Sart, and BridgeBoi instead commented on the kill being a notable low-info or unexpected without directly commenting on the new-player aspect. Terrisman didn't comment at all at first, then noted that they wanted to go for the rookies / interacting with Worldhopper who's been defensive about this. (Mark and STINK haven't been online, and Gaea and Jo instead just haven't posted yet.) I could make a reads bucket, but that wouldn't be arbitrary, would it. Teldris shares an Ajah with Gaea, voted for STINK, and trusted Sart above Terris/BB/Steel. Not a lot to go off of; not exactly the most direct way for Terris/BB/Steel to get themselves elected to the Amrilyn, and one vote shouldn't be enough to scare off STINK. So who stands out? The trick here is to try and make sure I'm not subconsciously going for my own suspects. But of the two newer players commenting on the kill of a newer player - TwinStorm's is much more an echo of other player's comments, while Worldhopper's are much more self-defensive. Aeternum also feels like someone who would comment more on these. I want to go into some older games to see how some of the more experienced players actually act around newer players while Elim. I do know that, despite other things, it's pretty easy for Elims to try and use new players' newness to their own gain (read: my first game I got PMed by 2 elims asking for claims). But for now... I'm honestly inclined to believe Wiz, Steel, and TUF. Steel's was a bit over the top but also he's a Sitter lol. TUF is still suspicious from D1, IMO, but this... I don't think for this unless he honestly is going for Randomness and got a bad draw twice. TwinStorm, Aeternum, Worldhopper, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo Honestly, again, Worldhopper feels genuine. Gaea I'm not so certain - depends somewhat how dead their doc was - but I don't think Gaea would kill a new player and their Docmate without a good reason. (Whoever's Gaea's Sitter, if you think there is a reason, would be good to know). And STINK, honestly, doesn't seem the type for now. TwinStorm, Aeternum, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terrisman, Sart, Jo I like this divide. Jo doesn't seem the type either, but low-info would help him if getting Amrylin is the plan. The others could do a few things. I'll vote Aeternum. Also because NKA relies a lot on player lists, and it's still there - @|TJ|, the player list is still pinging Exp and not Aeternum.

In 20 minutes, iirc? Steel

Did you now...

Ah. Good to know. There’s also the aspect of if making lerasium would increase the Ruin power imbalance, but that could be offset by atium… maybe. Depends how that works now, and how Intent works with god metals in general. (But that’s another topic.)

Sorry I like a Drake Exe but dislike a Kas one more

Part of the issue is that Drake’s posts this cycle have been, er, nonexistant Realistically, the Elim team probably isn’t Drake and Sart and Worldhopper, but something’s strange there. I’m also a little suspicious of Gaea as well. But for now, I’ll do Drake Polly/KelsierApologist

Hey, I also have one vote! But also - Gaea voted for Drake and immediately got voted by Sart. I vote Drake and immediately get voted by you. Whoever voted Drake earlier (Joe?) also had their vote vanish. Meanwhile Drake has said nothing this turn. I find that quite interesting.

Hmm… fair point. Counterpoint: Drake.

… I don’t like a D1 Kas exe. Even if this game is one with limited trust. I trust my docmates, as far as I can throw them, and I can throw them much further than some others. Polly and TwinStorm, are you docmates?

Alright, I am once again alive and once again have too many things to respond to! ... I appreciate it, but I also just usually play like this depends how much I can latch on to. I'm a bit more limited in role-power than other games but analysis on detail is kinda just my thing. Well, that and kandra. Objection: this was my idea first! I've been claimed by Kas already so not too much more thought, but I think it'll be helpful. Although as a warning, some people (me) may end up using this to speculate who elected which Sitter. ... huh. How'd this translate in terms of votes? Well, that phrase has some success stories in elections, I suppose Do you know who you would have voted for, had you had the chance? (Don't say it, but I'm curious if you had one in mind. The Green Ajah in particular is one where I'd imagine the Elims have an eye on. Also Other Green Ajah, don't claim but if Sart's lying it would be really good to know before you all mysteriously disappear. But overall I like this response.) @xxGaea, or @The Wandering Wizard, did you try to become Sitters? Seems like something you'd both do. (Edit: in addition to Drake, but multiple people have commented on Drake before but not these two.)

There’s also a point on, besides the original Atium we don’t know how god metals are produced. And for all we know Harmony is capable of producing atium/lerasium, but is trying to hide that. One of my bucket list WoBs to ask is would it be easier to restore Devotion + Dominion from the Dor, or some mixed shard (Leadership?).