Oltux72

1. White Sand needs a source of Investiture to recharge. The Aethers tap the Spiritual Realm like in the Metallic Arts.
2. Nalthian arcane arts do not need recharge. This thing looks like technology and seems to simply recharge electrically from sunlight.
3. The sand is not the only Invested Art on Taldaine.

4 hours ago, robardin said:

What does this mean for her purpose in being on Lumar? Sadly, it appears to be no more than an epic scale of bullying.

Then why not land on an inhabitated island and turn a tenth of the population into flatulent slime moulds and make the rest lick clean marble statues of her?

OK, now to a true reaction to the whole book.

This read like Secret History as told by Allomancer Jak. I loved them, I loved this book. It was better than Lost Metal and Rhythm of War. However, I can see that this is a more extreme style. You either love or hate it. Brandon really used the sauce of Cosmere stuff here. This is a book for nerdy fans.

Just now, NewbSombrero said:

So in the SP1 post, Brandon said we "might be able to puck up some context of who [Hoid's] talking to" based on some of the comments he peppers in. I'm not sure if that's just like homeworld or if we're talking about a specific character, but the thought did hit me wondering whether Hoid is telling this story on First of the Sun (maybe to our buddy Sixth). Idk does this seem likely to anyone else?

Given the time the, if we know the audience, it will have to be either First of the Sun or immortals.

Given how Hoid talks about religion it seems to me that he is speaking to a group.

23 minutes ago, Karger said:

We have volcanoes that do something similar(spewing vapor constantly for hundreds of years).  Even in our solar system their are planets and moons that are much more active in that respect.  You don't need much gas to produce the fluoridation either.

But we are talking about a large fraction of a planetary surface and most of the time.

So the book tells us who and what she is and what means she uses for her defense. And it shows us her hobby. But what is she doing there? Why is anybody who desires so much security that she turns a whole ocean into her guradian so conspicious? Why does she settle on an inhabitated planet at all if she wants to live alone on an unhabitated island?

1. What are the transparent things strung up behind Tress in the painting on page #2 ?
2. Captain Crow on page #196. Her gun is smoking. Do they have gun powder used in small fire arms?
3. Page # 430 - is that a wink at Jeff Bezos?

4 hours ago, Karger said:

This needs to be a movie.

Enough said.  I know that some of you must be film students.  Your great Brandon Sanderson high priest commands you...

In all serious though this book was surprisingly cinematic.  All of he characters have wonderful quirks that would be very easily portrayed and the world itself would create some amazing opportunities for images.  I think this book might be the best of any of brandon's for a story that is easily adapted to another medium.  Anyone have actors in mind for different characters.  Music? Direction?

It has been confirmed that Brandon is talking wit Hollywood.
Speculations were always that the material targeted were established worlds. Because they are known to readers. But by the time a movie were made the Secret Projects will be well known.

4 hours ago, Karger said:

Bubbles from vents under the ocean.  I'm guessing that some sort of deposit of mineral is heated and that resales the gas but that one is just a shot in the dark.

Over much of a planetary surface for centuries? The amount of gas needed would be astronomical. And where does it go? Lunamar does not have the amount of air that would imply.

4 hours ago, Karger said:

The whole planet is likely artificial(12 moons).  I imagine that the dead spores can dehydrate when on land and this creates water vapor.

It can but it would still generate unpredictable weather. There is something Hoid either does not know or does not tell.

8 hours ago, Necessary Eagle said:

Because the narration says the kandra have gotten weirder over "the decades" since they went their own ways.

So you are making the assumption that the Kandra scattered immediately after being released from Harmony's service?

3 hours ago, FireandAshes said:

Genuinely so excited when he showed up. I wonder what kind of magic he used to wrap Crow with the curtains? Was it something established like awakening, or do dragons of some form of telekinesis? 

Dare I suggest Microkinesis?

3 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

I believe Brandon said SotD is farther ahead, bit not by a lot.

That raises a fundamental question. We have multiple interstellar empires. Yet we also have multiple relatively primitive planets. So many that many of them are still being discovered. I can see no way this is possibe unless the Cosmere has hundreds of inhabitated worlds. That means that our view of it must be highly skewed towards atypical worlds.

7 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

1. True, but...

- So far the Unmade have a poor record vs Radiants. For those who have actually had confrontations...

Yes. The Unmade are also decaying. It can hardly be denied in total.

7 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

- thunderclasts don't seem all that impressive vs Radiants, though they are awesome living siege weapons. Nightblood wasn't available in the past, but they don't have the mobility to deal with flying or Abrasion-using Radiants, and Renarin isn't really hurt much by a solid hit - and he didn't have Plate yet.

Combined arms. The Singer armies in this Desolation are quite debilitated by having no established militaries. A Thunderclast is something you have to defend against or attack. Thus you are losing initiative. We have seen a Shard being forced into taking personal command.

7 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

- Regals and Midnight Essence are less powerful than Fused, they're going to be very little use vs trained Radiants.

We have not seen trained Regals. And again combined arms. A team of Regals and Thunderclasts is harder to beat than either of them alone, for example.

7 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

2. This is genuinely possible, since Soulcasting food requires specific gem types. They'd never run out of gemstones in general, since singers have gemhearts and ancient humans harvested them (this is the source of the listeners' corpse taboo), which means using Regals and regular singers is probably a net loss to the Fused - theyre providing resources. But conceivably they could run out of emeralds and heliodors.

Even then, though, I don't think its a clear win for the Fused, for two reasons:

It isn't. Given the number of Desolations and how they lways ended it is quite clear that the outcome is almost preordained. However, that does not make Odium's side harmless. And remember, ultimately Odium does not want humans on Roshar to be exterminated.

7 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

- The Radiants shouldn't need anything like their full forces to defend the Oathgate cities. I doubt there's enough Fused in existence to beat 200, or even 100, 4th ideal Radiants in a straight fight. (4th ideal Radiants with both Plate and Stormlight healing are incredibly hard to kill; Fused are not.) That leaves Radiants free to go hunt the Fused so they can't organize a siege well. Or to go hunt greatshells for more gems; before millennia of overhunting, they were probably not hard to find, especially for flyers.

Yes. If worst comes to worst, you can retreat back to Urithiru. The Singers were never able to exterminate their opponents. But they didn't need to. The Radiants and Heralds always knew that the next Desolation would come. The risks in a pyrrhic victory were too great. You would need to really exterminate the Singers. And you would never have been sure.

7 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

- Animals with gemhearts are ranched for gems on Roshar. Even with the need to maintain some farming and ranching (so not all humans are literally in the Oathgate cities themselves) the flight speed of Radiants with Gravitation is enough that I don't think any humans would ever have to be out of quick response range of Radiants.

True, but on a world without fast communications meaningless by itself. Spanreeds are a recent innovation. The Radiants would need to patrol. And there go your resources.

1. What causes the fluidization? What happens to stuff that falls into the oceans?
2. How do the rains work? This looks like the weather on Lumar is artificial.
3. Why does a dragon keep slaves? Why not just hire people? 
4. How does the life cycle of aethers work? If it takes sapient incubators, how were the first spores produced?
5. Are the mad aethers still sapient?

1. The Ire are prospering
2. Somebody developed true AI
3. Where was Design?
4. Do genuine familiars exist or do they not?
5. Nalthis is still around and producing its own technology
6. A Dragon! Dragonsteel!

24 minutes ago, Necessary Eagle said:

The most interesting Cosmere connections:

1. Apparently Saze set all the kandra free? And the implication was that this was within a century of whenever the story takes place.

Why?

24 minutes ago, Necessary Eagle said:

3. If Midnight Essence comes from (or is associated with) Aethers, what does that imply about Re-Shephir's nature?

Nothing. Pewter and Shardplate give increased strength. Lightweaving comes from three different systems.

This book really increases my dislike for Hoid to new heights. There is something distasteful about the same man making jokes about officers losing men and then abusing a crew and getting some of them killed for your own personal power.

5 hours ago, Frustration said:

The Singers would lose in the same way, but humans reproduce faster.

Singers may not be as fertile as humans, but they grow up faster.

And, much more important, their recruitment improves during a desolation. They have people who really live only for revenge.

5 hours ago, Frustration said:

And that spren do in fact prefer to bond quickly after their radiant dies.

That's still a losing game, because your Radiants now have neither Blade nor Plate.

2 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

What I find a plausibility issue is... back when there were Orders of well trained Radiants (the later Desolations) how did the Fused kill 90% of humanity?

They did not. Odium's full forces include the Unamde, Thunderclasts, Regals, Voidspren, Midnight Essence and true Voidbinders and probably other things we have no yet seen.

2 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

If I were in charge of the human side, I'd put all humans in the 11 Oathgate cities (Soulcasting can handle all logistics, you don't even really need to farm) and make the Fused come to us. there's nothing the Fused could do, pre-RoW discoveries, against a hundred Windrunners/Skybreakers/Stonewards in living Plate backed up by Dustbringer artillery and Edgedancer/Truthwatcher healing. And with everyone in the Oathgate cities, they can't avoid fighting those groups unless they give up the war entirely.

Attrition. Guerilla warfare until the cities run out of gemstones.

12 hours ago, Tamriel Wolfsbaine said:

I think this is a great point.  Shardbearers cannot hold ground... radiants can.  Open a perpendicularity and do whatever bonkers shenanigan's you can think of with the surges on an aoe scale and in theory you should be able to swallow up entire armies of enemies without breaking a sweat.  

Then can in accordance with their numbers. Which will dwindle with the general population. Radiants can't lower their recruiting standards by much. They cannot draft people like conventional armies can.

12 hours ago, Tamriel Wolfsbaine said:

Thats my whole issue with SA.

They can be at a few places. And at that places they can slaughter armies. But there won't be armies to slaughter. The Singers don't need large armies at that stage. It will be one burned village after another. And then the Radiants will be forced to make peace.

On 21.12.2022 at 10:59 PM, Frustration said:

Fused souls wear out after each rebirth. Spren don't, so killing then is making progress.

Not to mention they have virtually no way to counter a radiant once they reach 4th ideal.

The Knights Radiant wouldn't lose. The Rosharan humans would lose. You would have a small elite and a broken people. And then: Shardbearers cannot hold territory.

49 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Mainly because if you look at how the map depicts the icons the mountains of mist and the Horneater peaks are far higher than say the unclaimed hills, which appears about the same as the Scadrian mountain ranges.

It does not really matter all that much. Any mountain is a mountain for these considerations. On a densely populated, quite developed world of 8 billion people we tend to forget that in its natural state only a small fraction of the planetary surface is accessible with vehicles. Especially in developed countries we have paved roads everywhere. In its natural state Europe and most of North America would be impassable.

49 minutes ago, Frustration said:

And general Roshar is not plains, it's rocky crags which is easier for humans to move on than horses OB 736.

Yet a certain slaver could pass the Frostlands with multiple carts without roads. Alethi armies could travel the Shattered Plains without roads. In most of the Earth and other planets that would just have been impossible.

49 minutes ago, Frustration said:

The Set did it. They went from their warehouse to the temple of the Sovereign in what two days? They almost beat Wax there and he could fly.

The last stretch they walked. They had months to prepare and they took a small party and had medaillions.

9 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Army traveling on soil with no road, will quickly turn the ground into mud, which would massively slow them down - ask Germans about it, they've learnt it in 1941. Even Napoleon was advancing by roads. Scadrial is deprived of transportation infrastructure outside of Basin. 

Inside the Basin, too. Look at a railway map of eastern North America or western Europe in 1900. Scadrial is underdeveloped.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

Yes, but that goes both ways, we cannot say those mountains are i.e. Himalayas or even just Alps and so present good natural defense, just because they are covered in snow.

I am sorry, but we can say exactly that. You are not going to cross mountains covered in snow without roads with any conventional land vehicle.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

And this is also assuming that perpendicularity is the only way to attack, which is not the case (Roshar has Surge of Transportation, Sel with prep-time can do anything, forces of Autonomy can create artificial perpendicularity under some constraints etc.)

Well, no. It assumes that the perpendicularity significantly matters.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

True on logistics, but logistics is not the same as natural defenses.

True, hence it needs its own section. Yet the topics are related. Attacks and defenses involve moving people and things.

A look into history is instructive there. For example the wars between Austria and the Ottoman Empire. Both sides went along the Danube every time. That was obvious to the other side. Were they stupid? No. It took a major navigable river to supply armies of that size. Does that have any connection with defenses? Of course. Just by looking at a map anybody with a bit of history or military training can tell you that the site of Belgrade will be a major fortress. And it is.

You can look at Scadrial and it becomes obvious where the major strong points for defenders of the Elendel Basin would be. And they would be there precisely because the mountains force a very small number of approaches onto an invader.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

I agree that logisticics section could make sense, however I fear it would be far too speculative (as books typically don't concern themselves with such manners). I.e.

I am sorry, but they do. We know how long a shipment of goods took in the Final Empire. We have an idea how quickly Elend's armies moved. We know how Dalinar's armies deal with ... human waste, let's call it that. We know how long a trip from Elendel to New Serran takes. We can even take an educated rough guess at the loads of a Scadrian railway car.

5 hours ago, therunner said:

Mine explodes on its own, this requires manual operation.

The grandfather of command detonated mines

Automatic detonation is a feature to save man power. If you have a few observable lines of approach its disadvantages may outweigh its benefits. Other than that the Scadrians of course have automatic detonation. What do you think the bomb Wax and Wayne found in Alloy of Law was?

3 hours ago, therunner said:

Well, the nearest mountains are hundreds of kilometers from Elendel? If I remember right, so they don't really help Elendel much.

On the contrary. The Basin is pointless to besiege by that feature.

55 minutes ago, therunner said:

I mean, depending on time of year even very flat mountain ranges (i.e. around ~1100 meters above sea level) are covered in snow for up to 5-6 months at a time.
Hell, some retain snow even until August!

That very much depends on Scadrial's orbital parameters and the luminosity of its sun. We just don't know.

55 minutes ago, therunner said:

Also I would say that what counts as natural obstacle depends on capabilities of the attacking force, if they all fly neither rivers nor mountains will be much of defense. Same if they easily burrow underground.

No. It also depends on the defending force. For example mountains around your perpendicularity in a basin are much easier to fortify and allow you to take it under artillery fire.

55 minutes ago, therunner said:

I think putting only non-regular features under natural defenses makes more sense (i.e. frequent earthquakes, Highstorms, Aether seas etc.), it should be something which makes the planet stand out or a combination of effects that is obvious hinderance, not something that is normal occurrence everywhere. Basically every planet has mountains, rivers etc. so influence of that on Firepower index would end up mostly cancelling out.

1. This is the Cosmere. Not every planet has those features. Take Taldaine. Almost everything is a desert on Dayside. Or Roshar. Rivers are generally impermanent.
2. Your invasion or logistic depend on the location of your perpendicularity. Take Final Empire Scadrial. They had barge traffic via their canal network to both their perpendicularities. Modern day Scadrial lacks those advantages. Sel has a perpendicularity right next to its center of Invested manifacturing. Roshar has an oathgate in a dream location in Thaylenah. Nalthis is at a severe disadvantage.

55 minutes ago, therunner said:

Limited artillery fire and air attack, if we are considering them at the end of TLM, as I think is the setup of this post.
So far we have not seen any actual air force from Malwish, only slow moving bombers, and artillery in basin has range less then 10 miles despite what Bilming propaganda wants others to believe (if I remember correctly)

Ample range. And they have Coinshot paratroopers.

55 minutes ago, therunner said:

Since the post is Scadrial at TLM, and only for demonstrated capabilities, they don't yet have water mines, or even regular mines.

1. They drill subways with explosives.
2. Fill a ship with explosives and anchor it in the river.

There are your mines.

On 30.12.2022 at 0:42 AM, Frustration said:

That is a great point thanks.

And I forgot tat this advantage applies also on land and water. The Lifeless really give Nalthis a logistical advantage far above their level of technology.

The key drawback of land transport in preindustrial times was that your means of transport need to eat.If you use Lifeless draft animals that disadvantage goes away. And they can pull day and night without rest. Hence you are also much faster than conventional land transport and you can give convoys armed escorts without much of a logistical burden.
This also applies to ships. Lifeless oarsmen can operate continously without food or water.

I think the index needs its own section for logistical capabilities.

16 hours ago, Frustration said:

Going from the Perpendicularity to the basin only requires them to cross a single mountain range, which has pathways to the basin. From there an invading force won't need to cross mountains again until they invade the Malwish.

One mountain range is plenty.

16 hours ago, Frustration said:

And there is one very important detail about those rivers that ruins their potential defensive use: They are all navigable. Rather than hindering an invading army they provide quick and easy transportation to the Basin's capital and largest population center.

On which ships? Are they constructing a ship yard? Or do you propose carrying ships through Shadesmar?

16 hours ago, Frustration said:

And even if they don't take the time to build boats rail lines run perpendicular to the rivers, allowing them to follow those.

While under artillery fire and air attack? Industrialized warfare, contrary to expectations, does not lower the defensive value of natural obstacles.

14 hours ago, alder24 said:

Rivers! Rivers are the barrier. The closer they get to Elendel by "following the rails", the closer the rivers get. And if they don't cross any river, they would be stuck in a wedge hundreds of kilometers long, being forced to use more and more troops just to secure their flanks, with frontlines shortening, and with exposed flanks - big advantage for the defenders. Invaders can't advance on Elendel without crossing rivers and encircling the city.

That, however, works both ways. The Elendel Basin is fertile, but I seriously doubt a city of millions of people could feed itself if the river were blocked and railway lines cut.

Attempting urban warfare against Allomancers is just not a good idea. If possible at all, you'd starve them into surrender.

14 hours ago, alder24 said:

 

It's your index, you decide. I just pointing out how you underestimated the importance of extensive river networks and mountain ranges shown on map. There is barely any flat plains on Scadrial, everything is divided by mountains. Elendel Basin is called basin for a reason. Look into history to see how mountains and rivers dictated wars.

That raises a generic point. There is no section for logistical capacity.

15 hours ago, Frustration said:

And while the Malwish do have mountains they can't survive there long due to their need of warmth. And most of their continent is accessable via the ocean.

Again with which ships? You got to remember that Shadesmar is land. the largest piece of equipment you can transport in one piece is limited.

15 hours ago, Frustration said:

Does Scadrial have water based mines? 

Unless they are stupid, yes they have them. If not, they have artillery and they surely have oldfashioned chains. In the worst case they'll sink a few barges. Taking a river is a nightmare against an enemy with modern weaponery.

You can make a perpendicularity with Connection, too. Feruchemy can manipulate Connection.

Does anybody know according to which time zone Secret Project #1 will be released?

Let's talk about aethers. Aethers raise a fundamental question by existing. Why do you want aviars so badly? They may give you more abilities, but fundamentally a small bud in your skin is just more convinient in everyday life. It seems to me that TLM explains that. The aviar comes without a connection to a superbeing whose interests and standards may conflict with yours. But I am going out on a limb and speculate why Hoid is in SP#1. The planet is a source of unbound aether buds due to a group of core aethers having gone insane and rogue.