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Lumgol

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Everything posted by Lumgol

  1. Alright, at least this makes Ventyl and Drake look very good...
  2. Pocketing is when an elim is trusting and friendly toward a villager in an effort to gain trust and defense in return.
  3. I said that I have reasons to believe that Aman's survival was not due to elim protection. I specifically chose this wording because I don't have any concrete evidence to believe that, I just see a lot of plausible options that don't involve a WGG. A village Lurcher could have protected Aman. Aman might be a Thug. Something less likely is that an elim Lurcher might have protected Village!Aman to gain trust, and I find that less likely because no one has openly claimed Lurcher here.
  4. Furamirionind has just made too many posts that seem elim. Asking Mistborn to claim to them in PM's. Then asking other roles not to? Starting off by saying that tonight's kill was definitely not a WGG. Instead of listing the options and analyzing each one, Fura straight-up said (I'm paraphrasing) "This was definitely not a WGG because [Fura's reasoning]". Although I have reasons to believe that tonight's kill was likely not a WGG, and I tentatively trust Aman, this sounds... too much like a cover-up? People have argued that Fura is sounding TWTBAW, but why? If someone's village, why couldn't they just sound village? If someone is sounding suspicious, I'll still find them suspicious even if it seems like "too much".
  5. If anyone wants to swap roles, they may PM me. I have already used up my PM for today.
  6. I PMed Aman last turn, @Amanuensis can confirm. @Furamirionind, why are you expecting a mistborn to claim to you if it's been stated that they're likely elim or kandra?
  7. Good game everyone! Although I wasn't as involved as I hoped to be, I'm glad I got to be a part of this game and it was really fun stepping in
  8. Alright. @Devotary of Spontaneity's posts feel a bit off to me... I'm not sure why, and I can't really pinpoint it. But there's not really something that particularly sticks out or warrants a vote. So you're staying neutral for now, and I'm keeping an eye on you. @Amanuensis has had some good points that he's explained really well. I'm especially interested in the idea of not having a lynch D1. Honestly, I think that's a pretty good idea (although I haven't been in any games where no D1 lynch happened, so I don't have the experience to back that up). I wholeheartedly support voting on players for whatever reason, "genuine" or not, because voting always has a function. Even if votes are retracted at the end of the day, votes can still be analyzed and patterns can be looked at later in the game (who tends to listen to what players and which players vote for which people for which reasons, etc). If a villager is lynched D1, though, we lose a villager, which is not good. If an elim is lynched D1, then obviously the good news is that an elim is lynched but since it's D1, there just aren't any clues that the elim can leave behind to connect themselves to other elims. On the other hand, the elims are always going to kill a villager (or possibly the kandra, but that is much less likely), and the kandra is going to target both the village and the elims but is more likely to choose a villager D1 because there are more villagers and not that many clues. So lynching someone D1 can at least possibly remove an elim or the kandra, and if a villager is lynched, then at least the kandra might have more clues as to who the elims might be (and if a villager is both lynched and elim-killed, I would assume that the kandra would try to target an elim if their goal is to balance targeting elims and villagers). So, back to Aman. He's sounded really defensive when Fifth voted on him, even when Fifth said that a lot of it was just paranoia. That raises a bit of an alarm, because there's really no need to get that defensive D1 unless someone is particularly vulnerable. I think his analysis is quite solid and I agree with much of what he says about the game, though his whole tangent about not wanting to kill villagers because of not liking to kill people and him being empathetic was... kinda off? Yeah, I think it's pretty normal to feel at least slightly bad about killing a villager. That is not really a legitimate argument against friendly fire or vigilante kills, though. Killing is going to have to happen, and the important part is about whether it's a good strategy for the game, as opposed to how it makes you feel.
  9. Hello, I am checking in. Poke-voting on me this round is now no longer justified.
  10. I don't really know if I have that many thoughts about this game other than, yay, I won ALSO MAILL I KNEW IT I KNEW YOU HAD TINEYE 2 THE FIRST CYCLE AND YOU VOTED ON STEEL TO SCAN HIM I KNEW IT I want to shout out @Elandera and @STINK for being people that I trusted, and @Mailliw73 for another incredibly fun PM conversation I also wrote a few really long analysis posts that I'm proud of and will certainly look back upon and be like oh, hey, this was when I sorta started to be good (even though @Furamirionind apparently disagrees ) @Coop772, thank you for actually posting sometimes Also, this was probably my last game with @Steeldancer? I think? Well I was also in MR35 for a bit. But I'll miss you, and it was definitely fun having you around in the game (even if we did have to lynch you at one point) @Fifth Scholar and @A Joe in the Bush, I was never around for LG41 but thank you for giving me a chance to play a similar game! I really enjoyed the writeups this game, too. ... I think that's about it
  11. That makes a LOT more sense. Double post, but I'd like to point out that the votes are 2:1 on your side. The person who will be mislynched, if nothing else happens, is me. If I'm lynched, we'll just have an elim and a bunch of inactive or slightly-active players (That's if Fura is indeed the elim). That looks like a losing situation for the village. The village will lose due to inactivity because of failing to step forward and look for the elim. If Fura is lynched and flips elim, the village wins (unless there's another elim, which is unlikely). If Fura is lynched and flips village, well then... that won't be good at all, since that will make me look very suspicious and will cause not one but 2 mislynches. Regardless of the situation, however, "loss due to inactivity", per se, is much more likely if I am lynched and it is the situation that will cause my lynch, if any.
  12. Submitting a kill onto anyone would have proven that I'm village, since if I were elim and sumbitted a kill and you redirected the kill onto me, I would have died. I only really started to consider the possibility of you being elim a couple days ago, and since I was away yesterday, I could only take the time to formulate my suspicions today. My vote on you D3 was mostly out of paranoia rather than real suspicion. Did you just... out yourself? Implying that a lynch on me would be a mislynch?
  13. This does not make you more village in any way. Elims have just as much motivation to go after Mistborn as the village. Exactly. You need to keep me suspected, but you also need to keep me around, which is why you didn't kill either me or anyone. Not killing anyone is the only choice for you, since it's the only option that both keeps me alive and suspected. As for pushing for someone who "won't immediately get lynched", how would you go about that? Would you, then, try to vote for someone who's been cleared? That would only make you more suspicious. As someone who's currently leading discussion, people will at least consider suspecting those who you suspect. Your arguments against me make sense. I don't think there's a way to cause suspicion on someone and just guarantee that people will keep them around nonetheless, unless the person you suspect is a cleared villager.
  14. So, bear with me while I try to explain why I think Fura is elim. Part 1 I'll say my weakest argument first. Although I never really trusted Maill this game, he did happen to be right. He suspected Steel and Devotary early on in the game, he told me that Rath was an elim the night during which he was killed, and that same night, Maill told me in PM's that he suspected Fura. Part 2 Now, looking at PM's: When I told a few people what Fura's role is, Fura threatened to redirect the elim kill onto those people. Even though Fura stated later that that wasn't their actual plan (which I'll go into later), this threat implied that Fura knew who was going to submit the kill. Fura stated later that they intended to redirect the kill onto whomever I mentioned to them. Why? Village!me wouldn't tell Fura's role to people who I think are evil. Elim!me would give Fura the names of some villagers to frame. Either way, there is no reason to suspect the people I mentioned to Fura for that reason alone. Which brings me to my next point. CadCom was one of the people to whom I told Fura's role. CadCom died that night. What I gave Fura was a list of people who knew too much information and therefore needed to be killed. Part 3 Early on in the game, Fura mostly just analyzed mechanics. I don't remember Fura ever starting or really spearheading a suspicion of someone early in the game. They were just lying low. There's almost certainly only one elim left now. If it's Fura, Fura's probably on their own. With a large portion of the players cleared, Fura is one of the remaining people who hasn't really been cleared yet, so they need to deflect suspicion onto someone else. Namely myself. If Fura really suspected me for a while, why did they only suddenly mention it today? Fura's posts look less like genuine suspicion and more like a desperate framing attempt strongly based on the assumption that Fura is innocent. Last night, the elim failed to submit a kill, obviously to frame me since it was openly stated that Fura was going to redirect the kill onto me. To that elim, keeping the suspicion on me is, for some reason, more important than killing another villager. With most players at least somewhat cleared, and Fura not being one of the cleared players, it must be especially important to keep me both alive and under suspicion. That, I think, is why no kill was submitted. It would benefit Fura in this situation to keep suspicion alive more than it would benefit Fura to actually get closer to outnumbering the village. Conclusions? The more I look into Fura this game, the more it makes sense for them to be elim. If you've been a less active player this game, I urge you to look at this post and put in some votes, whomever they may be for. Fura is certainly the most active player right now, and if little to none of the rest of the players vote, we'll have another mislynch and the person I most suspect as elim will be pretty much the only active player in the game. If you haven't voted or posted yet today, I urge you to come forward and vote for Fura.
  15. I will be gone for the rest of today and part of tomorrow, but I should be around for rollover. That being said, Fura. I'll try to explain when I come back.
  16. WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH CREM WHOEVER FRAMED ME BY NOT SUBMITTING A KILL ACTION, PLEASE COME FORWARD (well obviously you won't, because you're the last elim)
  17. @Furamirionind, try redirecting me onto myself tonight if you wish. I don't care. The only reason it won't be a waste of an action is that it'll prove I'm village.
  18. Hadn't Devotary practically outed themselves? I can't really say I'm suspicious of Ark per se, but it's more of him being an elim makes sense. He's been a lot more NAI than I remember him being in games before this one where he was village, and has been active enough to participate without doing that much analysis (although I'd say that's pretty normal for Ark). Him claiming Tineye 1 may very well be used to persuade people not to kill him because it would be closer to taking away PM's, and I can definitely see how it can be used to balance out the roles of Smoker/Seeker/Senn/Assassin. As for Fura: If I were elim, would I really have sent you the names of my teammates as the people I told? No. I would have given you villager/mistborn names to frame. Why, then, would you intend to redirect the kills onto them?
  19. Did I really trust Maill though? I never trusted Maill in this game. When I made a deal with him, it was all about testing his role. I voted on him twice. AND, he wasn't even a villager. I. literally. Have. Never. Said. In. This. Game. That. I. Trusted. Maill. Just because I PMed with him a lot does not mean I trusted him. Also. Me not voting on Devotary was done for completely different reasons than not taking Maill's advice. For the village to win, the Mistborn have to be eliminated first. And yes, Maill knew information about who the remaining elims are. That is why I was trying to lynch Stick, not Maill. As for roles: The elims already had a Seeker 2, an action scan role. That combined with Tineye 2 would consist of a disproportionate number of scanning roles. Look. Not only did I vote on Steel D3, I was one of the earlier votes and wrote up my reactions to every one of his posts up to D3. Bandwagoning on an ally to gain trust is one thing. The post I wrote about steel is a totally different realm. I think the last remaining elim is Fura or Ark. For now, though, I'm voting Maill. The mistborn need to die first. But Fura or Ark still needs to die.
  20. Furamirionind is totally an immortal worldhopper who can time travel, right, though? @Furamirionind
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