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CadCom

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Everything posted by CadCom

  1. CadCom
    Unfortunately, we lost Lan, but on the good side, we did manage to get rid of both creatures and deal damage to the third that was created this cycle. That means Rand should be able to take care or Rath(creature, not character) today. We still have 7 health left on the current ring, so that's good as well. I'm seeing some of the popular discussions being between aman and mark, or between mr. doctor and fura. Then there's also the discussion of randuir, and whether he's ikyk-ing us. (Which I could see happening, but I personally doubt) I'll provide more thoughts on this tomorrow. Specifically the aman/mark and the mr. Doctor/fura discussions. As i suspect at least one elim among those two discussions.
  2. CadCom
    fair enough. In that case, It could be that the traitor is relatively active, and they sent in another bead, and the inactive person was the person he converted N1, who was inactive, possibly due to the weekend. I haven't been following this game very closely, and for that I apologize. Let me look over the thread real quick and see If I can formulate any suspicions.
  3. CadCom
    I've spent an hour or so trying to find out how the blight attack amount can be correct, and I haven't really come up with anything else, other than what is already mentioned in the thread. But I think that any further discoveries ought not to be shared with the thread, because If we, who are trying to protect the Eye, don't know what happened, the elims probably also have no idea what happened, and we don't want them figuring it out, in case it could happen again.
  4. CadCom
    So if I were elim this game, I cant help but think that one strategy that would pass through my head is to lay silently, while the village kill themselves. Once I am lynched once, then at that time, I would be able to stop laying in wait, and I would pass out as many beads as possible before I'm completely lynched, if I didn't manage to convince them that I'm a thug. This would allow the elim to go relatively unnoticed, and find out through much more careful consideration, who exactly they would want to bribe. So I believe that the idea that I recently came up with may not be taken the best by everyone, but I will suggest it anyways. What if we simply don't vote, or vote for (a no lynch, if that's allowed) in order to hopefully incentivize the elims to action. Because if we don't incentivize them, we may remain in this status with no kiills for as long as possible.
  5. CadCom
    I actually just did the vote count. I think this is accurate... Droughtbringer (2), fura, mark. Did I miss anything?
  6. CadCom
    Hey all! I've been keeping up on a little bit of the discussion, but I havent had time to do a proper analysis yet as to what's going on. If someone could post a vote count for me, thatd be great. Other than that, I'm leaning towards voting fordrought this cycle, but only based off the analysis of others unfortunately. The discussion about Mark and Aman is kind of interesting, and I'll look more into it, but most likely not today due to time restraints.
  7. CadCom
    My vote was negated. I'll try to provide more analysis later.
  8. CadCom
    I agree with the lynch on Brightness Radiant. For the reasons I expressed last turn, So That is where I will put my vote. Also, as is typical for me of the weekends, my activity goes down, but I will try to check in over the weekent.
  9. CadCom
    Well, I was just looking at the abilities we have from defending the rings, and I noticed that on the fourth ring, anyone defending the ring will be immune to the creatures of Aginor. Once we start having to defend that level It will probably be good to stay on that ring as long as possible as well.
  10. CadCom
    I haven't been posting much, and I completely missed last night. Well, actually, I was going to post about how we needed to keep the discussion going, but then Mailliw beat me to it, and then I got busy trying to think of another post, so it never happened. So, no death probably means that the Seer chose to convert tonight. Unsurprising. Unless Aman's theory proves to be true. In that case, we have an inactive or less active eliminator, and at this point it's still 1 versus everyone else. I'm kindof leaning to the likelihood that the elim did convert, and we are simply not informed. That being the case, there are now 2 elims out there, and at this case, I still believe that it would be relatively difficult to tell who they are. I will try to come back later to post some analysis on players though. I'll let you know how it goes.
  11. CadCom
    Lynching an elim is very important, But if we lynch Aginor, all we will know is that we lynched someone with two lives. That's still very useful information, because we can just lynch them the next cycle and find out who he is if that's the case. Or if anyone has a night kill(I can't remember right now) Then they'd be able to take him out. But my point is that Aginor has two lives, so even if we lynch them they will survive. I wasn't role blocked or redirected, this cycle, or any. So, Rand can do one damage against either a creature of the blight, or the creature of Aginor, right? The creature of Aginor also has 2 lives, so Rand wouldn't be able to kill it tonight, unless the Emond's fielders can also submit a kill, by looking at the discussion so far, from randuir and fura, that might be difficult. But if we don't kill it, then it will kill one of us. Then, we have Poxx, the creeper of Blight, which will deal 2 damage tonight, unless stopped. But I think what you're arguing is that stopping the creature of Aginor, as opposed to the creeper of blight is a better option? If so I think I agree, but all the mathmatics in this game are admittedly not my specialty.
  12. CadCom
    I don't think that they necessarily think you're an elim more than they think anyone else is an elim. It's kind of a general rule to assume everyone is an elim until you can confirm they're not. Personally, I don't see anything you've said that makes me think you're elim, all of you're posts have been NAI, but unfortunately, that gives you a 1 in 4 or 5 ish chance of being an elim. (because we are assuming 4-5 elims among 20 people)
  13. CadCom
    Alright, I've done a couple more people. Once again, I didn't go in order, because these two people seem interrelated in this game. 10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) Playing entirely in RP. Which is fine. I personally don’t think that conceals much for him, because he is using RP to still provide analysis when necessary. But, I also don’t see much alignment indicitave stuff. D1, he didn’t like BR’s posts, and he got some backlash for it D2. Despite being somewhat less active, he has generated a lot of discussion from his limited analysis. Could be a good option to lynch if we want to get rid of a possible less active, while still getting a lot of Information. From what I’ve seen there could be a bit of tunneling on BR, which I will discuss when I get to her, but I tend to agree with most of his reasoning, even if I don’t necessarily trust him. (if that makes sense) 18. BrightnessRadiant, I actually kindof agree with Bard on this. I know Brightness hasn’t played many games since I’ve started, but I find it odd how often she has claimed to be confused in this game in particular. Not necessarily alignment indicitave, but I would put her as slightly elim, just because of how much she’s said she was confused about the rules. I kindof wish that I had done some of this analysis on these people prior to the end of the last day cycle, because looking at these two people, and who is defending who, i think can lead us to at least one villager, Currently I'm leaning more toward BR being elim more than Bard, but as I went through each of their posts, it did flip flop back and forth. During the next day cycle, I don't want to only discuss these two, but perhaps more people's opinions on the apparent discussion here would be good? Thoughts?
  14. CadCom
    In that case, I will vote. I saw that Snipexe did not have any votes, so I'll vote for him. On the basis that he has a 1 in 19 of being an elim (or 1 in 18 if I remove myself, since I'm not the Eliminator)
  15. CadCom
    My vote didn't get negated either. Work is keeping it difficult for me to consistently do player analysis, but I've done a few more. They are out of order now, and some of them were just because of the ease of completing an analysis on an inactive player. Here's what I've got now. 8. Rathmaskal I’m reading as slightly elim. But then again, if I weren’t me, and I were judging me the same way I am judging Rath, I’d also read myself as slightly elim, so It isn’t the most accurate reading. That is because he seems to be lurking a lot(a couple people have seen me lurking as well, and then tagging me to get me to speak, but my lurking has been very short sporadic views just so I don't fall too far behind, but no analysis took place), but pondering very carefully before he posts anything, as if he doesn’t want to say anything wrong. And anyone who has been watching me could possibly think the same thing. 15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) Is he Kidpen now? In my opinion, he usually reads elim, even when he is not. But this game, he has been exceptionally low on activity, so that seems odd to me. 16. STINK, Has been very inactive, due to computer troubles. On the one hand, I would like to get rid of inactives to keep the actives playing longer, but on the other, lynching an inactive only gives us probablilty chances of catching an elim. Which is what? About 4 or 5 out of 16? So 25ish percent? Not that great when we are can possibly narrow down the suspects through some other form of analysis. Same goes for Ark and other inactives.
  16. CadCom
    So I'm counting, What? 3 votes for this cycle? With Just one Elim currently, I am more proned to not feel comfortable placing a vote yet, So I will let those that have voted or will vote determine the lynch for now.
  17. CadCom
    I'm seeing a lot of discussion regarding the vote negation, seeing as it is come pretty high negation, out of 13 people. However, I don't see how much of the discussion is moving past that point. I think we can all agree that 1. there was a lot of vote manipulation 2. most of it was probably caused by just the 20% of defenders votes doesn't count. 3. It's possible that Aginor negated a vote. The location of the vote is not 100% verifiable though, at least with the information that the people who have posted so far have presented. 4. Enough people defended that a ring did not fall, which has now increased the strength of the attack this next cycle. If anyone disagrees with these statements, or if you argue that we can, currently, derive information from these, please let me know, and I'll go back and reconsider them. So, I'm going to move on. I'm in the process of doing some more player analysis. Will provide that within a couple of hours.
  18. CadCom
    I promised Id put a vote in bu the end of the cycle, and I do prefer the lynch of meta, who I believe is ookla the cited over fura, because fura is contributing a lot to discussion, and I am reading village on them. Edit. Could someone with more time than me post a vote count?
  19. CadCom
    I had posted though. Even with some analysis. Admittedly not much. I'm going to re read the thread one more time, then provide a vote. It may take some time though.
  20. CadCom
    I sincerely apologize for lack of content from me. My toughest final is today, then after that, I honestly can just skim by, without worrying for my last two, because they're online and open book. I've been studying like crazy these last 24 hours though. Here's my thoughts on 2 more people though. 6. Amanuensis Inactive, until yesterday, like me. I’m still Neutral with my read of him. His discussion was basically regarding who he thought could be Village, including discussing slightly more exensively, the possibility that Rath is village, but most of that is in response to Randuir’s questions. 7. Droughtbringer Somewhat less active as well. Fura tunneled on him D1, and D2. He did little to nothing to defend himself. I’m reading as slightly village. But he is less active, and that makes him scarier to trust. I personally think that we should lynch a less active this cycle, because if we lynch someone who's more active, we are going to be killing the discussion. So if someone could post a list of the least active, including me, I'll go over that list and decide who I think is most beneficial to lynch. But for now, I will withhold my vote. @Ookla the Positive(steeldancer) I do understand that you are also busy, just like me. And you do have the virtue of putting more effort into anything than I did probably up until this point. No worries, I understand your predicament. For that reason, for the time being I will not put my vote on you, like I suggested last night cycle.
  21. CadCom
    Hey all, Checking in now. Could I get a time zone for the cycle close? And I'm assuming 6:30 PM? I should be back before the end of the cycle.
  22. CadCom
    So it's a bit busier today with calls at my work than I was expecting, so I haven't done as much as I would like, but I'll try to go through all the players, listed in the order that they are mentioned in the write-ups. I've done the first four as of now, so I'll post those. Hopefully later, I'll post 4 or so more. 1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) D1, didn’t want to form a “baseless suspicion, despite that is what D1 votes are based on. Up late at night, Very werewolfey behavior. Votes young Bard for Harshness against BR in an RP post. It seems like his posts are possibly in an attempt to stay under the radar, avoiding suspicions, and accusatory claims, except for his tunnel on Bard. 2. randuir Wants to get info out to help village, including placing action to protect ring, if no other action idea occurs. (village)All of his posts, including revealing himself as an emonds fielder read village to me, because he really wants to give the village info and help, and it seems like quite bit has been verified. 3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) I feel like enough has been expressed about him from others, and I am generally in agreeance with them. Pushing hard for Snipexe’s lynch doesn’t necessarily mean that you are elim, just because he’s village. I mean at least 4 other people agreed with you enough to push for the same lynch. 4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) I have been relatively inactive, and, Unfortunately, my inactivity does not help establish myself as a villager. I will be hopefully posting at least one more time this cycle, and once or twice next cycle, with substantial posts. After that, I will have completed my hardest final, and I won't have any more studying to juggle. As a wrap up, if today were a day cycle, and There were only these 4 people left in the game, I would vote for Steel, but seeing as this is not a day cycle, I will have to do more analysis, and see if I still agree after analysis of more people.
  23. CadCom
    Alright guys, I'm back! Sorry for inactivity. Give me a couple hours to read through everything and post a concious analysis. Once again, I sincerely apologize for being so unhelpful until now.
  24. CadCom
    Hey guys I've had an unexpectedly busy weekend. I'll be back on for a little bit tomorrow, then hopefully back to normal activity by Monday. I apologize for my lack of activity though. edit whoops. I was so preoccupied in saying this that I didn't even read fifths post that the cycle is closed. Sorry.
  25. CadCom
    Hey everyone! I'm checking in! I'll read over the thread, and hopefully the rules again, and hopefully add something by the end of the cycle, but, as I mentioned when I signed up, My activity may be slightly lower until the middle of next week, a couple of days into the game.
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