The Young Pyromancer

Right, I’m not reading Araris as village, but since so many people are, if they’re an elim I’d say we’ve pretty much lost. For a TJ lynch, if our next lynch is a village NR, we’ve basically lost. If there’s 5-6 elims, that means we’re 10 or 9 to 4 or 5 after this night. If we lynch a villager, that’s pretty much game, if inactivity is considered. We need to lynch an active elim this day cycle. I suggest mage as a candidate in case I die. Be suspicious of people who put pressure on tj. If there is any protection left, tj would be the best target, considering their analysis combined with their role would make them a great kill.

Mage, I don't think I've been more active. I just think everyone else has been so inactive it makes me look good by comparison. We're on a bad streak of mislynches here. @TJ Shade @Araris Valerian @Frozen Mint ya'll have been doing analysis. Help please.

Matrim, by saying that, you lessen the chance Araris will be NKed, thus proving your own theory. Bad. For NKs, me and Devotary are likely targets, as the least controversial players. Also, Gears, was that an SCP foundation ref?

I mean, I'm a bit of an exception to that, but whatever. See, there is good reasons against that. End of D3 I expressed my opinions on that, and a bunch of people agreed, adding their own thoughts. I agree with your lynch analysis here. Since lynching a semi-active elim who's around enough to put in kills doesn't lead to the loss scenario like we talked about the previous day, I'll vote on Frozen Mint. EDIT: to be clear, I meant the single train bit.

Right, a bit ago I posted something with 'when I flip elim' in it. No one has commented on it, which is a shame, as people who jumped on it might have been elim trying to push a village lynch.

See, staying out of things is HOW people get lynched their first game

I'm moderately sus of gears. It's important to remember their Striker vote though, and not fall into recency bias. Kind of sus of da bear for not pointing that out. I thought TJ was soft-clear? What's with the suspicion on them? Matrim's being really paranoid this game, even more so then the MR, despite having been a role that if killed, would lose the game for basically everyone. This is sus. Bad gut on Illwei. They've been semi-active, but no one's been reading them. This is VERY suspicious. However, i would mean a large number of the active analysing players are elim. Which is possible, in a game with this many inactives. ...I'm scared

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that I'm playing very differently then I have as an elim, and therefore I'm more likely to be village.

Really? I've been being less chaotic as it's harder to calculate the impact of my plays without PMs. Huh. I'll have to do better then. And yes, I know me putting suspicion on Elb then withdrawing it looks like distancing. When I flip elim, feel free to lynch her for it.

Oh, Had that quoted for a while, just forgot to use it.

Slight village read on ash for this. Elims would want to encourage chains, and Ash doesn't seem to be the kind to Um, noo? Devotary always does that. And besides, if you look at my history, I'm not afraid to hide as an elim. If anything, that should give you a village read. Also, why'd you remove Ash and yourself from that list? I'm not so suspicious of El anymore now that I've had time to think about things. Still a little sus of dice. TJ, you've played with me as an elim twice now, once where we worked closely together. What's your read on me?

Sure, you raise some good points. If Elb is village, that's a big hit against us activity-wise, which is something I didn't think about. However, if we lynch inactives, even inactive elims, and the elims kill active villagers, that's even more of a death sentence. I'm fine lynching Eternum over Elbereth, but will not abide by the same reasoning next cycle.

Agreed. As more and more positive evidence comes out on why Gears is innocent, I read them more and more as village. @Matrim's Dice, on the other hand, has not. What say you about Devotary's points?

Just because someone's suspicious doesn't mean they can't also be right. And Gears is pretty village to me, as as TJ pointed out, the vote mattered a lot.

Nah, as 'Locky said, Elbereth's posts seem moderately sus here. Combined with your voting bit, I'm fine lynching Elbereth today.

I don't see why you're suspect. Can someone please explain why they want to lynch gears?

Okay, nope, our group PM was longer. However, I think SHOUTY SHOUT AGENCY!!! wins on word count.

THAT GAME... *siiighhh* We really should have won that one. But I think the shouty shout was way longer. I'll check the length in a bit

Or Protect me, as the elims might kill me in order to make it look like El is an elim if they're innocent. What's with the suspicion on gears? Striker's vote on them makes it seem like they're village. Also, what did ventyl say that makes you think Gears is innocent @Matrim's Dice?

Re:PM's, something we considered for 66 that didn't end up working was if the thing was per pm, the elims could set up a group PM and just spam messages to each other, or because there were PM spies in that game, just spam a bunch of messages one on one.

Right, @Elbereth so from these THREE POSTS, you've apparently deduced that Matrim is a better lynch than Ventyl, despite NONE OF THOSE POSTS BEING FROM THEM, OR being serious discussion about the arguments against either one. This seems like either distancing or bussing, though if it's neither, I feel we can safely say you're village.

It's like one of those Punett Squares from biology, with the squares inside being when the two outside the box in a row/column with it are true. Anyways, what's your thought on Elbereth's post?

...???? Okay, this seems like distancing to me. How in the world could you gather that Ventyl is a worse lynch candidate than matrim here? Also, like you say in that same post, the Ventyl lynch seems pretty solid, so I doubt it'd shift. For that reason, Ventyl Matrim, because if Matrim's elim, I'll put 60/40 odds on El being elim here too.

It is this: Ventyl is elim | Ventyl is not elim Lynched | Killed elim | Not that bad Not Lynched| Live elim | Lynched Later Did that help? EDIT: Gears was using this to say the lynched row is better than the not lynched row, and so therefore we should lynch Ventyl

I'm actually a little more suspicious of Matrim than ventyl right now, but I don't see a matrim lynch taking off today, so I'll keep my vote where it is.