Ivory Dragonfly

I'm fairly sure that your faction is one cycle away from victory, but I'm not at all sure how your faction can be prevented from winning.

If GLaDOS is one of the two factions one cycle away from winning, I'm not sure we can stop them, especially now that players can submit orders for inactive faction members. We don't know all their members, so whoever has Ruin can just pass the Shard to Rhinoceros, or Kangaroo(Note that I'm not sure either of these are in GLaDOS), or some other player unconnected to their faction and submit a kill order on their behalf. Even if all the Returned(except Chameleon) coordinated to suicide-roleblock potential Ruins, they still might not succeed. Even if they did succeed, that blocks one win condition for one cycle, and the other faction could still win. I've been getting a bit concerned that there's a faction with a planet creation wincon, as First of the Sun might be only one turn away from being created. It would need three Shards contributing, so I'd like to publicly ask whether any Shards from factions that don't have a win conditions involving planet creation have Invested in First of the Sun.

Mouse(5): Albatross, Toucan, Tuatara, Elephant, Scorpion Weasel(5): Zebra, Mouse, Heron, Ostrich, Dragonfly Tuatara(2): Falcon, Weasel Weasel, to prevent Mouse from needing Devotion's protection. Toucan and Tuatara's votes for Mouse were in self-preservation, while Albatross and Elephant are looking to advance their win condition, but why are you voting for Mouse @Amethyst Scorpion? Your faction member Crocodile seemed very concerned about GLaDOS's win condition, while you are actively helping them achieve it. Tuatara is not going to be lynched at this point, so that shouldn't be a factor.

Tuatara(3): Falcon, Zebra, Weasel Mouse(3): Albatross, Toucan, Tuatara Toucan(1): Mouse If we're not lynching Tuatara, there's a lot of people who would have to remove their votes. While there's no reason to lynch Toucan, I can say that lynching Mouse would be bad for almost everyone. Last night, Mouse was protected by Devotion, which means that an attempted lynch will bring GLaDOS one giant step closer to victory, assuming we're right about their win condition. If they're willing to expose their membership by actively pursuing a Mouse lynch, it would mean that GLaDOS is uncomfortably close to winning. I don't really have any great lynch alternatives, though. Would anybody like to suggest one?

Why would Lion being lynched have been something Hidden Garden agreed to? If Hidden Garden wanted to send Odium to your faction, it would have been so much easier and less fatal for Lion to have just passed the Shard to a representative from Joe Cloud. It's a bit of a risk for Dominion as well, but I can't see any particular reason for you to murder Dominion with a Mistborn; that doesn't seem to gain you anything. Can a Shattered Shard be Fused with a whole Shard to create one whole Shard? If either Hidden Garden or Joe Cloud has a Feruchemist, they could provide protection for Odium's Vessel. Supposedly, Albatross's faction has already done whatever they need to do with Joe Cloud, but it still might not be a good idea to let them provide protection.

Feruchemists can protect people, and Tuatara claimed that their survival was due to being given an extra life by a Feruchemist. If they've saved a member of GLaDOS, Joe Cloud, and Hidden Garden, they need to get a member of Utility Company, and a member of our faction for full victory. If Toucan was attacked, that means that they can likely pick which factions they want to protect, rather than all the living factions, as Heron could easily have been attacked and saved this past night. I believe they also protected Axolotl at some point, as Weasel was very sure that Axolotl would survive the lynch D4. What doesn't make sense is that Ruin then attacked Axolotl on Roshar, where Feruchemical protection is hard to come by. Additionally, if they get notified when their win condition i advanced, I would have expected them to murder someone from N2 onwards. Tuatara on N2, ??? N3, Axolotl N4, ??? N5, Toucan N6. Was anyone attacked night 3 or 5?

Since Chameleon wasn't Devotion after all, it appears that was just another lie Axolotl told to gain Joe Cloud's support. Since Joe Cloud didn't start with Odium, and almost certainly does not have a win condition that involves Shattering Shards, I'm a bit concerned about why it appears they're targeting Shard holders. This is interesting, and unexpected. What kind of ability allowed you to gain this information?

The thread identified and tried to lynch members of both factions that attempted to help Axolotl. Neither Joe Cloud nor us wanted to have one of our members be lynched, and since the *only* viable alternative was from the other faction, neither side was willing to back down. Now that everyone knows who we are, we can likely avoid future conflict, joining everyone else as proud members of the "People Axolotl lied to" club. Or maybe we want to tear each other apart while every other faction looks on in morbid fascination, that's also a possibility. We were told that Hoid's could use a day action to target a player. If that player passed a Shard during that cycle, either day or night, the Shard would be rerouted to Hoid. We are not sure how this would work with Shade!Axolotl, if indeed Axolotl was turned into a Shade. Is this action just illegal? Can a dead player hold Shards? Would any Shards stolen in this manner be immediately rerouted as if Axolotl had died holding that Shard? Opinion is split.

Cream (2) - Mint, Indigo, EmeraldSage (0) - CreamJoe (2) - Chartreuse, Magenta, Sunburst, Saffron, QuartzIvory (1) - CreamAzure (8) - Oxblood, Turquoise, Quartz, Onyx, Melon, Amethyst, Mauve, Charcoal, AMBITIONCharcoal (8) - Ivory, Magenta, Pearl, Quartz, Mint, Chartreuse, Saffron, Ivory, SapphireIndigo (0) - Charcoal, Ivory And so we send the lynch off to the grace of Devotion, or perhaps the Gods of Luck and Chance.

Thank you. I seem to have forgotten that you'd already voted, but we will repay any assistance you can give, especially of the Forgery type. There are more than three of us; we just didn't feel the need to tell Axolotl the identities of our entire faction.

Mouse won't die if Chameleon shifts their vote. Joe Cloud obviously isn't going to switch, so Weasel, Hyena. I'd like to see what happens in a tie. @Pearl Chameleon? Would you care to deadlock the vote?

Mauve's faction is the Joe Cloud faction, not Utility Company. Cream (2) - Mint, Indigo, EmeraldSage (0) - CreamJoe (2) - Chartreuse, Magenta, Sunburst, Saffron, QuartzIvory (1) - CreamAzure (8) - Oxblood, Turquoise, Quartz, Onyx, Melon, Amethyst, Mauve, Charcoal, AMBITIONCharcoal (6) - Ivory, Magenta, Pearl, Quartz, Mint, Chartreuse, IguanaIndigo (1) - Charcoal, Ivory Here's the current vote count, with me adding in Ambition's vote. Even if I switched my vote back to Hyena, Mouse will still die.

Cream (2) - Mint, Indigo, EmeraldSage (0) - CreamJoe (2) - Chartreuse, Magenta, Sunburst, Saffron, QuartzIvory (1) - CreamAzure (7) - Oxblood, Turquoise, Quartz, Onyx, Melon, Amethyst, Mauve, CharcoalCharcoal (5) - Ivory, Magenta, Pearl, Quartz, Mint, ChartreuseIndigo (1) - Charcoal, Ivory So I believe this is the current vote tally. Honestly, wasting another lynch on Weasel sounds better than killing Mouse. Joe Cloud, what do you say? I could also be persuaded to vote Chameleon again.

If the alternative is having Mouse die, I will put my vote back on Hyena. However, if you give my another option, I won't. The Hidden Gardeners are out, so I'll take my vote off of Falcon. Perhaps one of Weasel's faction; they haven't lost anyone. We gave Axolotl a list of four lynch candidates: Chameleon at the top, then Beagle, Zebra, and Albatross as alternatives in case Axolotl didn't want Chameleon to die. Axolotl approved Chameleon, but said nothing about the possibility of lynching Devotion.

Axolotl did not tell us who Devotion was. In fact, Axolotl pretty much explicitly claimed not to know who Devotion was. Chameleon was a random player who seemed bloodthirsty. Ah, a Hidden Gardener then. Well in that case, I'm very confused. Does anybody know where Odium went? Edit: Why did Falcon believe themselves to have been targeted by Odium?

Alright @Mauve Crocodile, @Onyx Flamingo, @Amethyst Scorpion, @Charcoal Hyena , @Cream Tuatara, @Turquoise Gorilla just in case, I'm sure we can solve this peaceably. Hyena. If we don't have Odium, and you don't have Odium, and Hidden Garden doesn't have Odium, then who does? I still think it could be Falcon. Can we agree not to kill each other, after we've already weakened each other by fighting publicly?

And now for exciting yet very, very unnecessary inter-factional violence. If Axolotl said that we were getting Odium, then that was a lie. Axolotl chose to die rather than give us Odium. You can ask yourself with Ambition, if you'd like. And how did you think you were going to get Devotion? Axolotl was incapable of killing, and our agreement with Hoid was a mutual non-aggression treaty. Even if you believed we would receive Odium, did you think we would go around killing people just because Axolotl asked us to?

Well, it looks like the purple alliance is real. Scorpion and Flamingo appear to be in one faction, with Mouse in another. With Scorpion and Flamingo avoiding votes for Hyena and Tuatara, and Heron's claim that those latter two are in the same faction, it appears that Scorpion, Flamingo, Hyena, and Tuatara are part of the same faction. Crocodile is also part of the purple alliance, and as Mouse tried to lynch them day 4, the two are unlikely to be in the same faction. That leaves Scorpion, Flamingo, Hyena, Tuatara, and Crocodile likely to be all in the same faction. If that's all true, then if they have six players in their faction, their last member is probably Gorilla, which makes the Mouse lynch something close to a very gradual hammer. One of these factions presumably has Ambition, the last member of the purple alliance, who can add a vote to either Mouse or Hyena, either making the lynch closer or swinging it further away.

So we have a lynch between Hyena who might have been working with Axolotl, Mouse who was probably working with Axolotl, and Tuatara who has outright admitted to working with Axolotl. We're lynching one of these players because we can, and on the off-chance that one of them possesses Odium. With supposedly at least two factions working with Axolotl, and the possibility that Odium reverted to Falcon or Hidden Garden, our chances of actually lynching Odium are not great. What's the next step here? Keep lynching people until Odium is found? Wiping out the faction(s) that worked with Axolotl? Khriss's faction is not named after her; it's the Silverlight Research labs faction. On Day 1, Joe clarified that a single player counts as a faction unless they don't, which, while not particularly helpful, does mean that it's possible for a faction to have only one member. Since Axolotl helped kill Opal, it might have been a good idea to reveal that information. Ostrich seemed rather sure that Axolotl was lying about not having a secret role, which would make sense if they were in the Roshar doc. Ostrich apparently believed that Axolotl would spill more secrets if left alive, but seeing as how Axolotl went to their death still clinging to lies, this may not have been true.

Hyena is right that the Night 5 writeup implied that Hoid was the only member of his faction. Special abilities are only revealed if all members of a faction end up in the Spiritual Realm, yet Hoid's abilities will be revealed if just Axolotl ends up there. In that case, Odium would have gone to someone who isn't an Ancient, and lynching the new Vessel will not cause the Shard to leave it's current faction. Who else was on Roshar when this happened? I don't recall anyone bringing this up during the Axolotl lynch.

Unless I have gone blind, the Eyes of Trell have never appeared on the player list, so its current absence from the list doesn't mean it's gone. Axolotl did support Crocodile relatively strongly during day 4 with the lynch between Lion and Crocodile. Looking at the votes between days four and five, I may have discovered evidence of a purple alliance. Opal(9): Mauve, Onyx, Charcoal, Cream, Melon, Violet, Turquoise, Sunburst, AMBITION Mauve(8): Indigo, Saffron, Ivory, Quartz, Azure, Emerald, Opal, Salmon Pearl(8): Ambition, Azure, Charcoal, Cream, Ivory, Mauve, Onyx, Violet Axolotl (12): Chartreuse, Emerald, Indigo, Magenta, Melon, Mint, Pearl, Plum, Quartz, Saffron, Sapphire, Taupe Of the eight players who voted for Opal Lion, five of them voted in support of Axolotl, with only Dingo joining the lynch against Axolotl. Similarly, five of the seven players who voted in support of Axolotl also defended Mauve, with the exceptions being Mouse and I. According to Beagle, who is rejoining us after a two and a half week vacation, Mouse's faction had a PM with Axolotl. Any such PM likely would have come after Mouse revealed that Axolotl had taken two actions, including a self-targeting one. As it's rather rude to kill off one's PM partners, it would make sense for Mouse not to vote for Axolotl in that scenario. As for me, I learned that even if an accusation seems baseless, it is likely to be true and the accusers just aren't willing to explain why they know things. Since we're playing "Who took the Od'yum from that old Hoid's corpse?"(Who me? Couldn't be), and because we might be punished by the Almighty GMs for placing our first vote fewer than six hours before rollover, I will put a placeholder vote on Charcoal Hyena until I get someone to tell me what's going on. Is the push to lynch possible allies of Axolotl designed to kill the new Vessel of Odium? Is it to exterminate any faction members of Axolotl that may or may not exist? Because we have nothing better to do with the lynch?

I don't know why Joe would be uncertain where Odium ended up if something as simple as Investing or passing took place. In the clarification about where Shards end up if no member of the Vessel's faction is alive and nobody was Invested, Joe listed 'shared an alignment with the Shard' and 'targeted by the Shard' as qualifications to become the new Vessel. While it's unclear whether Axolotl actually tried to attack Falcon with Odium, if that attack did occur, Falcon could be the new Vessel of Odium.

It looks like I've missed a lot. We've engaged in the blasphemy of discussing the lynch more than six hours in advance. Weasel made a claim about Shard-passing that presupposed Axolotl was Odium. I could have said something along the lines of 'lynching Odium wouldn't prevent the Shard from passing to a player of Odium's choice, but instead I addressed the factual errors of that claim using Weasel's assumption to save time. Heron definitely seemed more sure that Axolotl possessed Odium in their most recent post as opposed to their previous one, though Axolotl still denies possessing Odium. This could be condemning, if true. I don't see how you could say this for sure though unless Axolotl confessed to someone. The closest evidence I can think of is a combination of Falcon being attacked and a Truthwatch scan showing that Axolotl targeted Falcon. That would still be pretty suspicious if Falcon and Axolotl are on different planets, as only Shards, Researchers, and Elantrians can target off-planet, but not conclusive proof of murderous intent. Would some of those stops include revealing information in thread? If you would answer questions in an Elantrian or 1-on-1 Cultivation PM no matter who sent the message, you can afford to spill a few secrets to everyone. To start with, why did Heron claim that you were Hoid and Odium's Vessel with markedly increased surety?

Would you have voted for Iguana had the coin come up the other way, or did you change your flip to Axolotl vs. Chameleon? We know Hidden Garden has killed at least one player. It may be they were only going after suspected Shards, but they were willing to kill. I don't see how lynching Axolotl would prevent Odium from passing on to a successor of Axolotl's choice, because taking the day turn to pass a Shard is always an option. That you know Odium Invested in someone just makes it more likely that your faction is in contact with Hidden Garden.

I do not have a better option for who might have taken Odium. Penguin appears to, but won't share unless the theory identifies an actual suspect, and presumably even then only if the thief can't come to a proper arrangement with Hidden Garden. All Penguin has shared is that it probably wasn't Axolotl, and if the faction that most wants the thief found doesn't think Axolotl is the thief, I don't see much reason to lynch Axolotl for it. We would see role and faction, yes, but we wouldn't learn anything about how Axolotl managed to take two actions in a turn, which seemed to be the main reason you wanted to lynch Axolotl. I do agree that it would be convenient if Axolotl explained their abilities, but that's not usually the type of discussion that goes in the thread. Iguana was the one to claim Nazh existed, while voting for Axolotl on suspicion of being Hoid. Since Iguana seems in favor of Khriss/Nazh, yet apparently wants Axolotl dead, I conclude that Axolotl is not Nazh. While Iguana could be lying, it would seem that there are at least two surviving secret roles. What alliance would this be? Just Hidden Garden/Weasel's faction combining? Some other combination of Shards that can kill? How would you have found out about this?