Ivory Dragonfly

Bailey happily handed one of the coins to the stranger. He hadn't honestly expected anybody would volunteer. He thought there was maybe enough oxygen for another person or two if they worked quickly. Strength in numbers and all that. "There's a few storage rooms scattered about. Biggest one is aft lower-level of this place; that's probably the one we want. Expect it to be dark, and expect to be holdin' your breath for a while. Other than that, I really hope it's pretty straightforward. We just grab the supplies we need and bring it back here so people can eat and whatnot." Bailey wondered if there was anything else he was missing. "You got a flashlight? All I got is these," he admitted, holding up two emergency red glowsticks.

This has occured to me, yes. If Falcon did not know which faction they were aligned with or against, this is the most likely explanation, I agree. In that case, their win condition probably ties into another role, and that other role has an unknown alignment. My one reservation here is that Falcon said they aren't neutral, which implies that their win condition doesn't just hurt another faction, but is in fact mutually exclusive with another faction. The alternative is that Falcon does know what faction they are aligned with, but still does not wish to reveal that information because it would still result in their certain death (this is also consistent with what Falcon has told us). I figure it could plausibly be either. A few observations on this: Falcon has decided not to describe their role, even though they are basically resigned to being lynched. I can only think of a few reasons for this: Falcon has the ability to survive the lynch, so they are still trying to win. This raises the question of what kind of role can survive a lynch. Falcon's win condition does not depend on their survival, so they are still trying to win. This suggests that you are correct, and Falcon's win condition is indeed contingent upon the survival or death of another player, or something along those lines. It also suggests that if people knew what the win condition was, it would be less likely to happen. Falcon is an obviously evil role (possibly an eliminator; that can't be ruled out from what Falcon has told us so far), who is basically resigned to being dying, but who refuses to just give up and out themselves. That is respectable; I would probably be doing the same thing in their place. There are only 14 players in this game. And, as far as we can tell, only one night kill in effect. I personally do not expect more than 2 third party roles in a game of this size, although I could be totally mistaken on that count. I like how you are thinking with the Kandra-Hunters. I will point out that Kandra-Hunters as a faction name does not quite exhibit the properties Falcon described to us, though. Falcon was very sure that if they told us the faction name, they would be killed. In the case of Kandra-Hunters, Falcon would totally be dead if the kandra was an elim. But if the kandra was a villager, I personally would have no way of knowing that, and would have no reason to lynch Falcon. We could try waiting and seeing if the eliminators put in a kill on Falcon, for similar reasons as we might choose to lynch Falcon. Thing is, we have no guarantee that the eliminators wouldn't try the same thing on us. Also, that strategy would be a disaster if Falcon is an eliminator, which I'm not ruling out. So yeah. I'd be sorry to lynch a role we did not need to lynch, but I suppose that's always going to be true for any lynch that doesn't involve an outed elim. Weighing all the factors I still definitely believe the best course of action is lynching Falcon (sorry friend). And I think I've covered why in enough detail now, so have some RP. "We are out of stew," Bailey said mournfully. "Nothing for it. I'm volunteering to go into the storage room, find some more supplies." Some of the refugees murmered at this. Surprise. Concern. Maybe a bit of derision. "Yeah, I know there's no breathable air over there," he said to the lot of them. "That's why I brought these." He held up a handful of small metal coins, one part nicrosil, one part cadmium. They were clearly labeled "O2" on one side, and stamped with the Kasheron station logo on the other. "Nabbed 'em from an emergency kit. Good sort of thing to keep on hand in space, ya know? Should last for about an hour apiece. Any volunteers want to come with?"

Ah, a difficult position. You have my respect, because I really believe you told about as much truth as you could reasonably afford to. However, I hope you understand when I say I am still definitely voting to lynch you. Whether or not you are a neutral, basically all of my points still stand, and indicate that you are aligned against the village. Furthermore, you have basically said that your win condition is mutually exclusive with either eliminators or villagers, and that if you claimed you would die. The latter is somewhat more likely to paint a target on your back then the former, because nearly all of us need to kill the elims to win. What's more, if you were a high priority target for the elims, you would likely have mentioned at some point that your death would hurt the village, which you haven't particularly done. Also for what it's worth, this play seems eerily similar to something I once witnessed an elim try to do in a different blackout game. Personally, I am disinclined to be persuaded by what sounds rather like a threat. I invite you to try to dig up dirt on me though, because I get the feeling that at the moment you chose an easy target. I agree with you that Falcon could not plausibly be a jester. Even though that would be entertaining if it were true. I also agree that lynching a true neutral would be a completely useless waste of a lynch. But everything up to and including Falcon's own claims indicate that they are not a neutral. I would not say sharing information is intrinsically a bad thing. It tends to help the village at least as much as it does the elims, especially in a blackout game. That said, personally I am not going to persist in asking Falcon to share their role. I respect that they are doing what they feel is best for their win condition, and will not press them for information they choose not to share. Even if my conclusion is that their win condition is anti-village. I am also a little curious why you are protesting Weasel asking Falcon to share their role, in light of the fact that you did something that imo looked similar with Dingo earlier this cycle. You and I both helped draw out Falcon's claim (or lack thereof) with our votes. I don't think Falcon chose the timing of any of this. I would hesitate to label another player as toxic without good cause. I do not believe it is wrong to sympathize with somebody for being in a difficult spot, while still believing that they have an antagonist role in the game. Actually, respecting an opponent but still doing your best to take them down is almost the opposite of toxic, imho.

Okay, I understand. Presumably you are claiming some form of benign neutral. I can respect that. And while I don't want to be "that other guy" who attacks neutral claimants, I'm seeing a few problems with this. I strongly suspect that you included your own secret role in your list of role speculations. Which is problematic, because none of the ones you speculated about fits the bill for benign neutral. You tried to backtrack on the meaning of "survive" as the refugee win condition, stating that you actually meant "kill all evils." I find myself unable to believe this explanation: You admit that you are indeed not village, but then also disputed the meaning of survive. Most truthful explanations do not need to attack every link in the chain of an argument. "Survive" has a much more obvious meaning, and the simplest explanation is that you most likely meant it to mean survive. You originally speculated the informants had a "kill all evils" faction. And then you went out of your way to distinguish informants and refugees as seperate factions. Now you are saying you believed they had the same win condition all along? If a neutral claimant is unwilling to share their win condition with the village, then logically there are two most likely reasons for this. Either their win condition is harmful to the village, or they aren't actually neutral at all. I am sorry if I am wrong, but from how Falcon has responded to our votes, I find it difficult to see how Falcon is anything but an anti-village role at this point. So my vote stands.

Subtlety has never really been my thing Although, Scorpion, note that I said nothing about refugee being an unpowered role, just that refugee is the name of the village faction.

Koloss? Actually, I reckon that informants is just a village role, otherwise it would be a different color. And nope, that's not the refugee win condition, because I can attest that refugee = village. That's interesting. You are clearly not a villager from this analysis. So what are you, Falcon? Edit: Ninja'd.

Hard for the Swan to hide all those coral feathers, I imagine Out of idle curiosity, what suggested to you that I have a role?

In my post, you will also see reference to the specifity of your speculations about the evil roles (I have seen evil players in blackout games correctly "guess" the identity of their evil faction on multiple occasions). And also a general gut reading. The color thing is secondary, although not entirely insignificant because I for one knew the village was color-coded green from my role PM. I am generally very reluctant to leverage that sort of thing, but your post made it difficult not to notice. I don't see it as strong evidence, but I do see it as another point against you.

Bailey cracked an eye open. He was curled up on the floor. In the dim lighting, he could make out a mass of refugees circled crowded around the airlock, peering out of the viewport, a chorus of shouts surrounding them. "Urgh... Did you alls just space that Albatross...?" Rusts, he still hadn't gotten used to this vessel's clock. Should have been awake for that. He blinked to clear his eyes. "Right, well, next order of business. Shift just started, gotta pick somebody else to space by the end of it. I nominate Dingo, 'cause they just seem off and I'm not the only one who's said it. What's more, some of their guesses about the murderers seemed kind of weirdly specific. Furthermore, they didn't pick up on how the different peoples are color-coded for your convenience, which any self-respecting refugee should do."

On further consideration, I will tentatively retract from Weasel, as I no longer believe that they are a good option for the D1 lynch. Perhaps I will look at Melon’s posts next.

I don't think there's anything wrong with that, so long as those of us who do so meet the expectations we set for ourselves.

This has nothing to do with Magenta's identity reveal, but I want to point out that defending the kandra is pretty IKYK because they anticipated that people would interpret it as defending the kandra. Ergo, I don't consider Magenta's behavior to be alignment indicative. Aside from that, I will consider Indigo's recent posts and try to reach a conclusion on them.

"Hey," Bailey slurred groggily, joining the throng of other refugees. "Just woke up. I miss anything?" "Stew," somebody supplied, pointing at a pot of the stuff next to the captain's mangled corpse. Bailey blinked to clear his vision, then set his eyes on the stew. Perfect. He needed a bite to eat. He carefully shuffled over towards the captain's dead body, sat down on top of it, and promptly began to slurp up the cold stew. Much better. Some of the other refugees looked at him askance. He wondered if the stew belonged to one of them. He almost asked, but decided against it, shrugging. People were weird like that sometimes. It was a pretty decent stew, even cold. Not like that soulcast crem they had over on Roshar. "Now," he said through a mouthful of carrots and a lump of inderterminate meat. "It's come to my attention that people are gettin' murdered and whatnot. And while that means more stew for the rest of us, that's still bad. We need to put a stop to this nonsense. Any ideas?" Slurp. "Also, this is a right proper stew. You sure none of you want any?"

Hello everybody! I am here. I apologize for the delay. I was given the wrong password for this anonymous account, and was unable to log in last night. A few thoughts on the game setup: Bodyswapping+Scadrial = Kandra, probably. From the powerset that a kandra is likely to have, I am guessing this is either some kind of SK role or part of a traditional eliminator team, with equal odds of either. Probably not village, because bodyswapping is a disinformation power. This should probably be treated a bit like an enemy with a conversion mechanic. Kandra don't drain and dismember corpses, so there is probably also something else in addition to kandra. The writeup implies this other threat is the primary threat in the game, and I am going to conjecture that it is structured more or less as a traditional eliminator team, since the signup thread hints at conspiracy (which implies teamwork), and because it is a common and central game mechanic that would not be excluded without good reason. A pity that PMs aren't allowed. I am guessing this is because PMs could critically undermine account-swapping powers, so I don't think we should expect there to be any PM abilities at all in this game. Note that this strongly suggests that the account-swapper(s) is opposed to the village. Incidentally, RP is actually strategically useful in this game, because it makes it harder to get away with account-swapping. I am making minimal (though not quite nonexistent) efforts to hide my identity. I am almost hoping to be identity thefted at some point, just to watch what somebody else does when they are pretending to be me. If it functions as a kill+swap, there are several possible limitations. Common restrictions are that it can be used X times ever, or that it can only be used every X cycles. It could also be something slightly more exotic, such as needing to correctly guess the target's role to impersonate them. The particular restrictions also depend on the difficulty of the win condition they have. If the account swap is part of an eliminator team, than I would bet that their power just piggybacks on the faction kill, instead of adding more kills into a game of this size. Since this was posted early in the game, I think it is all but certain that you are not a body-swapper. And that information has limited usefulness, with the possibility of identity theft down the road. Not necessarily, because this game is set in the far future and a lot could have changed. The same goes for conventionally evil powers like hemalurgy. This is part of why a blackout game can be fun By definition, anything that is NAI is not helpful to a villager Anyway, I am a believer in voting early and often. Since Seonid has not explicitly said there is no vote, I will assume there is one. D1 lynches are always a little shaky, but: I am voting for Weasel for these reasons: Their initial post asking the kandra to step forward felt a little forced. As did highlighting the fact that a kandra might not exist. They automatically assumed that there is an eliminator team. While I agree that this is probably true, they sounded very sure of it. The vote on Swan felt like jumping for an easy lynch. It is now my honor to announce that this game no longer has any inactives, for which to park non-alignment indicative votes on.

Okay, who is Heron? I’m following none of this.

Hmm. Thanks, Chameleon. I don’t know if we want any other villagers claiming, though. Looking at Elephant’s post again, he may be bluffing, and as long as we’re not double-protecting someone that’s not getting killed anyways, we probably shouldn’t give too much away. Unless, of course, you’re like me, and stupidly claim to others via PM. In that case, feel free, as the Elims likely know by now.

I actually thought the fake-claimer was Elephant. Regular villager rang alarm bells to me. Of course, he has a real role too, I’m sure. And yes, you very effectively took advantage of my inexperience. As I said, well played. If you’re our Worldhopper, mind drawing Edgedancer again? I love reading your keteks. I want more! ...can you just write some now, without needing to wait until you draw Edgedancer again? Because seriously, those keteks were great.

Big problem, Elephant: two villagers, Chameleon and Zebra, are nearly inactive. Making it really hard to coordinate actions. Especially Zebra, who I haven’t seen for a week. @Orlok Tsubodai, has he gotten a pinch hitter, or have we run out of those? The Elims clearly have a Skybreaker who has scanned every living player, so I advise all villagers to claim in chat. It’ll make it a lot easier to coordinate, even if most of the coordination is mental since PMs are down. Elephant, I hope your Worldhopper draws Edgedancer. On Alvron’s behalf, I will beseech the Gods of Luck and Chance to grant us this reprieve. And, on second thought...if we have a Windrunner, don’t auto-protect me, as that’s a free Elim kill on another target. Just win a round of IKYK. I’d like our Elsecaller to claim, if they can, so they don’t draw Windrunner protection by accident.

Well, everyone I trusted in PMs was Elim. Heron, in front of all these witnesses, I express my sorrow at not trusting you about PM safety. I had contacted all these people in PMs, and trusted them. Especially Kangaroo, the Elsecaller. Yeah, no shame at revealing that now that I know he’s Elim. Shoot, Elims have two Bondsmiths? That’s crazy. I removed Crocodile’s vote, if you’re curious. Pretty sure everyone on Axolotl lynch was Elim except Scorpion, maybe. Though he could be Elim as well. Well played to the Elims. You had me fooled. Toucan, feel free to say “I told you so” about Albatross. I am asking for village protection tonight. While I doubt any exists, the Elims likely having all the Skybreakers and Windrunners, I’m asking as a final, desperate plea to save the village. My vote manip is the only way the village can lynch people they want, and the Elims will remove that if they can. If there’s no protection, enjoy my writeup I made for my death. It’ll likely conclude the game. Again, well played to the Elims! This was a really fun game, even if we totally lost, and I’m thrilled to have such a game be my intro into SE!

Update on vote count: 3- Mouse: Dragonfly, Albatross, Elephant 2- Axolotl: Crocodile, Scorpion 2- Scorpion: Heron, Ostrich Okay, Ostrich raises some interesting points. She says the vote on Axolotl looks like an effort to save Scorpion. This is very true, and I don’t like the players on that side of the lynch. However, the Scorpion lynch also has the potential to swing us away from Mouse. Just something to keep in mind. Village read on Heron. Fairly NAI at this point unless Heron flips elim. Brings up a bunch of evidence to indicate Mouse was framed. While the evidence is good, why are you so seemingly desperate to prove to the village that he was framed? Plus, I still have a feeling that we’re not going deep enough with our IKYK. The Elims knew the vote would draw suspicion on Mouse. They also know we’re not analyzing anything past the first level or so. I think they’re banking on the fact that we’ll go the first level and convince ourselves that Mouse was framed, but go no further and not see that the Elims could be framing elim!Mouse, ironically, to draw suspicion away from him. Points against Scorpion: 1) lynch-bouncing: I’ve been responsible for some of this, especially the soothed vote last round. I obviously wish I hadn’t, but it’s a bit late to go back and fix it. 2) I’d say Scorpion is more involved in the game than half of the people in it. His playstyle just isn’t one for deep analysis. 3) Agreed. 4) I’d say this is NAI. Every vote cast to lynch a player has fallen on a villager. Including mine. 5) Agree, and this is why I kind of re-suspect Scorpion. We aren’t going enough levels of IKYK, and it’s costing us. I still think it’s costing us with Mouse, too. While the Scorpion lynch isn’t a terrible one, I still think we’re being played something good here by the Elims on Mouse. I may be paranoid. But if this is a framing, it’s also a bit obvious. It’s too easy to assume Mouse was framed. I am publicly announcing that I am soothing a vote off either Scorpion or Axolotl. I’m not saying which one, as I’d like to keep it so that the Elims are unsure about the vote tally. I have to go to school now, and will be back post-rollover. Lynch the right person, please. Or this game is over. Oh, something that just occurred to me: Don’t trust Chameleon if Scorpion flips elim, because he’s been PMing me asking me to take votes off him, and defending him in general. So if Scorpion is lynched, and is elim, Chameleon should be next in line for the noose.

Vote count: 2- Mouse: Elephant, Dragonfly 1- Axolotl: Scorpion This turnout is amazing! Just what we need to avoid letting the Elims control this lynch! (But seriously, guys, vote). People who have commented but not voted: Heron, Chameleon, Toucan, Mouse Silent people: Albatross, Kangaroo, Zebra, Crocodile, Ostrich, Axolotl So this is a “get out the vote” post. Also, I have suspicious reads on the following players, and would like someone that is not me to do a brief analysis of them so I can have another perspective on them. These players are Crocodile, Axolotl, and Zebra. Anyone want to do a bit of short analysis on them?

Yes and yes. The problem is, I kind of promised that person that I wouldn’t say anything about them without their permission, and unfortunately, they haven’t been on recently. I’d also rather keep it under wraps on the slight chance that it’s a villager, and the Elims could waste a kill. If PMs were up, I’d tell you, but they aren’t. If said person returns, I’d like to know from them if I have permission to reveal their Elsecallership. And even if we did lynch them, we’d have to take two turns, and at that point if he’s a villager we’ve lost. So while we should keep him on a suspicions list, he’s not a good lynch target. I haven’t contacted anyone that has claimed Windrunner, and haven’t asked for protection anywhere. I kinda feel that if I’m not lynched, the Elims will kill me tonight to seize the lynch tomorrow.

It’s not necessarily the lying about the identity that bugs me, just that people claiming to be new when they aren’t just to deflect suspicion seems kinda like a cheap move. Which is why I’ve told people to look at my posts without thinking in the back of their minds that I’m a new player, so they can objectively judge it. I don’t like people overlooking and/or justifying suspicious activity on my part just on the basis that I am new. The second part was poorly structured, sorry. Essentially, anyone who played LG41 and read the ending thread probably knows who I am. And for those who didn’t, you can go right over there now and discover my identity if you want. It won’t give you any info at all, but if you’re curious...*shrug* Again, fine with lying to establish trust as an Elim(that’s kind of the point), but this kind of lying seems unfair to me. Might just be a personal thing, so sorry if it’s clouding my judgement, but something about me does not like people who are experienced pretending to be new. Again, just feels like a bit of a cheap maneuver. I completely understand where you’re coming from on this. To be honest, if I wasn’t myself, I’d have been pushing a lynch on Ivory Dragonfly two cycles ago. Forefront of several lynches, misleading discussion, tampering with votes. The fact remains that my misguided analysis has likely helped the Elims more than it has hurt them, though through no intention of my own. I kind of wish that someone like Orlok or Wilson was actually playing this game, as they would have similar levels of activity but also a ton more experience and could likely shoot down my naïve comments before they went and lynched someone. I just don’t have the experience to lead a village in something this big, but ended up doing so anyway merely due to the fact that I’m an incredibly frequent poster (when I can be). That’s something that’s not likely to go away. I’m also too trusting. This’ll likely slowly disappear with time as multiple people backstab me the more games I play, but it’s not going to go away that quickly. So yeah, my playstyle simultaneously puts me in a role for the village where I’m one of the key voices in making important decisions, but also gives me none of the necessary tools to make those decisions. At least yet. For now, all I can do is say that I’m a villager who’s made some pretty poor choices. Whether or not you believe me is up to you. The driver of discussion I think might be Sympathiser is Zebra. We probably have a new Zebra, who can’t explain any of what old Zebra was doing, but old Zebra was fairly well trusted, without any dissent, which is raising a few red flags. Other than myself, I don’t think anyone’s questioned his villagerness all game, whereas I did have a few challenges to my alignment(Swan, Flamingo, Scorpion, and now you). An Elim!Zebra would be a great asset, leading the village in the wrong direction and subtly influencing everyone’s perspective. Also, the length of time he spent on the Beagle group, two of the three core members of which are now confirmed village, is suspicious to me. It seems like he was trying to divert lynch discussion for a few cycles, and given his sudden backing-out right before Beagle’s death, his actions read Elim to me, even if his tone and words do not. Okay, that’s a lot, but I’ll get to your points concerning me. First, I’d like to clarify why I Soothed/Bondsmithed Vulture’s vote. It was done 12 hours prior to the close of the cycle. So is everything I do on weekdays, including casting my vote and offering analysis. I’m not home in time to vote/change my soothe target before rollover, so when I was suspicious of Vulture I decided that I didn’t want her self-preservation vote to get in the way of the lynch. Also, I didn’t like her non-reasoning on Scorpion. Scorpion is a strange case. While his posts are being interpreted as suspicious, I’d like to point out it’s the same variety of posts that we lynched Tuatara and Weasel for. We got nothing there either. So I think “suspicious” players like him can be left alone for now, and dealt with later if they’re obviously Elim. We need to be going for the more undercover Elims at this point in the game. Not defending him, really, just saying that I don’t see much of a rationale behind those advocating for his lynch. As I’ve said before, I think the Bondsmithed vote is a Worldhopper drawing Cohesion. That Worldhopper has been proven time and again to be likely Elim. I doubt they’ll come forward, and if they do, don’t trust them. Heron, you’re one of the few people I have a semblance of trust in right now. What are your thoughts on the lynch itself? Will you be voting Mouse, or someone else? I’d love to hear another perspective on this.

Our villager: Elim ratio is currently either 7:6 or 8:5. Don’t like our odds much either way. Looked back over Falcon’s posts. Nothing much in them, consistent with all the other players the Elims have been hitting. Had suspicions of Scorpion though. I don’t trust anyone in this game except myself. I had a post prepped about why we should lynch Axolotl, but then I went and look backed through their stuff and got a village feel. Did the same thing for Falcon and got a stronger Elim feel, and was almost ready to post, but then he died. Redo analysis. Honestly I don’t see Heron and Mouse as both Elims, as the conflict doesn’t look staged to me, but either lynch is a fairly risky proposition. However, I think I’ll have to push the lynch on Mouse. I think the Elims are beating us in a game of IKYK here. They take a vote off Mouse to save him. We all go “Mouse is Elim!” for a while. Then, someone will see the “obvious” fact that the Elims were just trying to frame Mouse, and we all go “oh that makes much more sense, I’ll keep an eye on him” and move on. But Mouse seems legitimately evil. Part of this is that I don’t like his new player soft-claim that turned out to be false, but part of it is that I feel that under all the “useful” analysis, Mouse is an Elim. Note: I am in no way committed to this particular lynch. If someone has a better case against someone else, I’d rather lynch them if they’re more likely to be Elim. We can’t lynch a villager now, or we lose. We’ve probably already lost, but as I said before I’m making as much of a last stand as I can. Also still suspicious of (mainly) Axolotl and Zebra. If either candidate is up for lynch, I will likely support it. Though, come to think of it, we may have a new Zebra now... Edit: Never voted. Mouse

You really want to go down this road again, do you? In all seriousness, while my claim to be a new player should not have simply been taken at face value, I think we as a village have used too much discussion on this. You have my word on it, and also Beagle’s. Beagle would have no motive for lying about my identity, and neither would I, as a) if I’m lying, it would look really bad after the game and no one would want to play with me after that; b)I have no post style or “membership” that would incriminate me if my identity was known, having been so careless with it that I’m sure half the people in this game probably know it and aren’t saying anything; and c) it would just be a plain dishonest attempt to gain trust, and I don’t sit well with that. Which is kind of why I’m a bit annoyed at Mouse for pretending to be new, though I assume older players may have wanted to play without their reputation proceeding them. But they could have just not given clues about their identity and played normally. As for your “suspicions” of me, while I’m hardly one to talk in this regard, I’d appreciate specifics.That said, you make a fairly good point against lynching Mouse. I actually see Axolotl as our best lynch right now, followed by Falcon/Mouse/Scorpion. Axolotl has been consistently suspect, and their lynch will provide just as much info as Toucan’s. (Namely, if Albatross and Elephant are fully trustworthy, so we would kind of kill three birds with one stone, and get a lot of other info based on reads/comments as well.) Hopefully I’ll make it through the night. Also hope the village!Windrunner is winning their game of IKYK .