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Ivory Dragonfly

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  1. Ivory Dragonfly
    If I die tonight, I want to have run through every player at least once. Also, I don’t think I mentioned this, but Meerkat was not my contact. Though, since I did have a PM with them, I slightly regret the intense inner turmoil they might have been going through as I consistently mentioned this other Bondsmith. “How could he have possibly found out?” Well, I didn’t. So there you go. Quartz Zebra: Initially doing 1 long post a day with analysis and commentary. I liked his comments on Ostrich, but hopefully our new Ostrich can be more active now. Most of his posts were suspicions of the PM group. This is understandable to me, as I can see how a bunch of players swinging the lynch twice could attract suspicion. Zebra definitely seems to have good points against us, considering the evidence he had available, and I won’t fault him for spending a lot of time on it. That said, I’d like commentary from him on other things now, which he has already started to provide. Village read, with a small asterisk next to it. Sage Kangaroo: I’ve been waiting to do this one for a while. Starts off talking about Elsecallers (?), saying that lynching one would be bad. Kind of a weird first comment to make. However, I think that post has new merit, as Elsecallers and Windrunners are kind of flying under our radar right now. Get it? Flying, Windrunners, heh, heh... Anyway, they then launch into full gear for their suspicions of the PM group. However, unlike Zebra, Kangaroo’s posts about the group feel decidedly wrong. Something about the posts seems fishy overall, and they don’t really provide much logic for their positions. While they confess to being wrong later, that doesn’t clear them by far. You can easily say sorry for having messed up, so I see that post as NAI, even if it was well-intentioned. So, slight Elim read. Sapphire Elephant: I won’t really dive into their posts too much, as while they’re mildly helpful their PM content gives me a lot more info about them. He role-claimed in the trust group PM, edition 2, and from his other content, I think I can call him a villager with reasonable certainty. Still worth keeping an eye on, though. Oh, and a random thought that I got from looking back at his posts: he supported the Tuatara lynch but not the Meerkat one. Worth looking at? I’m not sure. Sunburst Toucan: I get a headache trying to read her. It’s hard. RP is great in small doses for me, but too much just makes it really hard for me to figure out what Toucan is trying to communicate. At least her journal entries are in regular format, but I haven’t been reading those much, as I wanted to have my opinions of players be uninfluenced by hers. Definitely will comb through them once I’m done, though. Violet Axoltol: LAST ONE WOOHOO! Seriously though, I should think this through rather than rush through it to be done. So...I know this is a bit of a touchy subject, but I feel that Axolotl 1 was suspicious, and Axolotl 2 hasn’t really made me feel much better about that suspicion. The unexplained/poorly justified vote on Meerkat rings alarm bells, and the mystical “new voting system” seems like a great way to deflect attention for a while. Probably my strongest Elim read. Alright, some RP since I haven’t done any in forever. It’ll be brief though: Nolan paced the library. His research was coming to life before his very eyes. The Surges were returning. Men dying in fires from the Surge of Division. Bondsmiths and Willshapers, influencing the thoughts of the town. He knew one...the thought staggered Nolan. He knew a Bondsmith. Of course, why should he be surprised? The books he carried said any man could be a Radiant, so long as he attracted the proper spren. Storms, he could be one of these Knights Radiant, and just not have realized it yet. ”Will that be all, sir?” The voice of the librarian drifted over to him. He held a small stack of scrolls that held information on the Ten Surges. He would do that next as part of his research, now that he had catalogued the town for the small government. Vanna had worked on it as well, though he had tried to avoid looking at her work. He had felt the need to do it himself. Help take his mind off the recent murders and violence. “Yes, that’s everything I need. Thank you,” Nolan said with a tight smile. The librarian gave him one of his knowing looks, and retreated behind his desk. Nolan began thumbing through the scrolls, lost in thought. Now, which one explains that weird incident yesterday...
  2. Ivory Dragonfly
    Well, I think you can narrow down my Bondsmith contact to the 9 people that voted for Meerkat. This is why I wanted the village to discuss more beyond Meerkat and Crocodile in the chat today, because I didn’t really suspect either strongly. Come to think of it, I should have just kept my vote on Ostrich. But it’s easy to say that in hindsight, of course. Crackpot theory: Are there secret rules in AGs? If so, I have a weird feeling that lynching the GM might do something. I think that as a village we need to become more wary of any lynch that passes with so little resistance. The Elims will come out of the shadows to defend one of their own. The fact that Meerkat was killed with near-unanimous support should say something. The D5 lynch really needs to have a lot of candidates up for lynching, to force discussion and bring out the Elims so we don’t have these unanimous bandwagons. So, analysis of people: Plum Rhino: Interesting player. Mostly inactive the first few cycles, but then got a pinch hitter and got around to posting some analysis. Voted Meerkat last cycle after posting an apparently large post, which was mostly just summary of Meerkat’s posts. They did have commentary on Meerkat, but it was really a one-sided assault and not really an objectively considered case. Has village read on Zebra, a fairly safe target for such a read, and an Elim read on...Kangaroo, for only voting villagers or not voting every cycle. Which is literally everyone in the game. When this is pointed out to them, they say that they aren’t really suspicious of them for that reason, but that because of it they still have mild suspicions. What? This all gives me a slight elim read on Rhino. Short on time again (dinner/ homework), but I’d like to use this opportunity to reiterate my suspicions of Ostrich. Where are you? Please post something.
  3. Ivory Dragonfly
    Dang, with Beagle gone discussion has kind of stagnated. Well, given that this my last post before the cycle ends, I might as well make the most of it. First of all, it is of tantamount importance that the whole village votes. Not voting just hands the lynch to the Elims and vote manipulators, something we want to avoid. I understand that no one is looking uber-suspicious, but a good Elim doesn’t. So we need discussion and voting to bring them out of the shadows. Given that the lynch on Fuchsia Ostrich isn’t going anywhere, my vote will reluctantly move to Salmon Meerkat. I still have a bad gut read on him, and since so much of the village does, he might actually be suspicious. So, I’ll do my little analysis of him early: Salmon Meerkat: Nothing about them explicitly screams “Elim!” However, the tone of their posts feels very off to me for a reason I can’t really put my finger on. In addition, their vote on Swan D1 to drive lynch discussion, while it may have had honest intentions, looks really weird due to their bizarre explanation that they were just making up evidence mostly to have another lynch candidate that they thought had a good chance of being innocent. Now that Swan has flipped village, it looks even fishier. Poor reasoning on my part, I understand, but he’s a much better lynch than Crocodile or Albatross, and Ostrich isn’t getting lynched at this point. Also, since I won’t be on until the cycle’s over, I want my vote on someone that actually might get lynched.
  4. Ivory Dragonfly
    Alright, back after a long day with some commentary on players. Still going down the list. Magenta Albatross: Okay, looking back at the PM group, I think Albatross is the most likely to be Elim. However, looking through their posts, the tone I get is that of a villager trying to advance discussion on players. I don’t see anything in their behavior to indicate a possible Elim, so I really think that Beagle chose thoughtfully when he created the PM group. I’m still not 100% sure on Elephant, but the original group feels very safe to me. Albatross I read as very village. Mauve Crocodile: I can’t say I trust them, as they’ve posted way too little for me to say something like that, but I have a general village read on them. Meerkat’s case against them is flimsy, as he himself admits, but the way he’s sticking to it after a fairly comprehensive post from Crocodile makes me suspicious. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Mint Heron: Most of their posts are suspicions of our PM group. Since so many people have expressed suspicions of it, it’s hard to root out the opportunistic Elims from the mistrusting villagers, and this is even more so the case with Heron. He brings up new evidence in his points against us, but again that could just be a studious Elim. No read on him yet. Heron, could you please comment on some of the recent developments? Onyx Flamingo: So, not too active the first day or two, so I made a fairly mild accusation, and was met with an emotionally charged, defensive reply. With no time to really respond comprehensively, I went to school thinking “welp found one of the Elims.” And then the PM group with Beagle started, and he said “please trust Flamingo.” So I looked back at their recent posts, and saw a good bit of villager in them. And then? They became a contributing member of the village, posting solid analysis. From these posts, I was finally able to do as Beagle wanted me to: trust Flamingo. I understand there are those in the village with suspicions of Flamingo, which from their style of writing I can understand. But I think it’s just that: their writing style. It feels very spur-of-the-moment and emotionally charged, and I think you’re mistaking tone for content if you see that as evidence against Flamingo. Also, the way they’ve talked in PMs with me feels very village, as they would frequently post when I was unable to respond, kind of just putting their thoughts down. Except I could see them. I don’t see that as something an Elim, even a new one, would do. Pearl Chameleon: Provided one of the initial posts in favor of lynching Dingo. Also defended Meerkat and Gecko, and had suspicions of the PM group (surprise!) and Weasel. Comes around on the PM group though. I really haven’t seen much from them due to low post quantity, but I have a village read here. Need more activity to get a better read. Nearly done with this cataloguing of the village but I need a bit of a break from it. I think it’ll be interesting to compare Toucan’s reads on people with mine once we’re both finished. Hers will be more in-depth, but hopefully you can get something out of mine too. I’ve also stopped reading Toucan’s little summaries so I don’t accidentally repeat some of her ideas just from having seen them recently. In regards to how the lynch is shaping up, we need a lot more people contributing and voting. I understand it’s not the weekend, but we still need solid discussion so we can lynch an Elim. Looking at the lynch candidates, I’m really tempted to jump on the Meerkat lynch. Something holds me back though. I’m not entirely comfortable lynching someone based on mostly gut read, and though their behavior feels off, I’ll hold back unless I think there’s no better option. Crocodile and Albatross are both villager reads for me, so I don’t support a lynch on either of the two, so my vote stays on Ostrich for now, as they have yet to post. It’s looking fishier and fishier to me.
  5. Ivory Dragonfly
    @Chartreuse Penguin While I would concur with Beagle that the most likely Elim in the PM was Albatross, I don’t think the evidence you’ve presented against them merits a lynch- yet. I’ll eventually get to them in my reviews. Speaking of which: Fuschia Ostrich: My primary suspicion. Keeps delaying significant analysis with a promise to post later, but never actually does so. Now, I am aware that we lynched Tuatara and Dingo for this, but I still think there’s at least one Elim among the semiactives, and Ostrich is one of the only ones left in that group, and is by far the most suspicious. If you want a more comprehensive case vs Ostrich, see Zebra’s argument at the end of D2, I think. Fuschia Ostrich. Indigo Weasel: Most significant thing from them is being the first to push a vote on Swan D2. Their post drove the PM group to lynch Swan. And they bandwagoned onto Beagle after defending Vulture. Could have been honest intentions, but maybe signs of an elim trying to lynch active villagers. Ivory Dragonfly: Hi. Okay, thought I’d get to more people than this, but I have time constraints due to having to go to school, so I hope lynch discussion develops nicely. Will be back in 12-13 hours.
  6. Ivory Dragonfly
    Alright, similar to what Toucan did, I want to run through all the remaining players. However, I’ll try to not go as in-depth, mainly due to time constraints. It’ll be done about 5-6 villagers at a time. Amethyst Scorpion: Jumped right on the Tuatara bandwagon with little explanation save for their agreement with the logic against them. Fishy to me because even I, who led the lynch, kind of felt that the arguments against them were a bit flimsy. Could have joined because they had no better options, but I get an elim feel from them overall and this definently feels like an elim jumping on a bandwagon to possibly save a teammate. I might be overthinking this, but I had a bit of an elim read on them anyway, so I’ll let them respond if they feel anything I’ve said here is inaccurate. Azure Mouse: Last votes on Beagle, though their suspicions seem genuine. Kind of noncommittal about the Tuatara lynch, and says that they suspect Vulture the least out of everyone who was up for a vote last cycle. Could be worth keeping an eye on. Speaking of which... Amber Vulture: Generally confuses me. See, the content of his/her posts SEEMS villager, and the tone is that of an experienced villager, but... it almost seems too perfect. Like they’re delicately planning their responses so that everything can be interpreted in a villager-y light. Again, likely overthinking this and the far simpler (and correct) answer is that Vulture is a villager and I am paranoid after mislynching three times in a row. And Vulture did defend Beagle when he was under scrutiny... again, not sure, but for now “villager until proven elim.” Chartreuse Penguin: Doesn’t have a high post count, but has arguably posted more analysis and discussion than half the people in this thread. Their general tone as well as some of the cautionary points they’re making gives me a generally village read on them. Would like to see more from them to stabilize this initial read, though. Emerald Falcon: Has posted way too little for me to get any sort of read. He did initially propose the D1 lynch on Dingo, though, so there is that. I’m going to bed now and will have more thoughts in the morning.
  7. Ivory Dragonfly
    Well, as I said, I think Beagle was doing more alive than his death would have given us. However, hopefully this clears any suspicions about the intentions of the PM group. Sorry for not being active, school and track are just a daily weekday thing that happens. Everything about the Gorilla kill was strange. It’s either an Elim Dustbringer, or a World hopper that got Dustbringer powers. As others have said, I find the second more likely, but we shouldn’t discount the first. I think people have mentioned that unusual role distributions are a thing in AGs, and I’m thinking that the Elims got 2 Skybreakers and a Dustbringer/ Worldhopper to help kill people. To balance it, they also got a really small team. Which is maybe why after 10 kills, 6 of which are likely village kills, we haven’t found one Elim among them. Also, we got more vote manip to help us control the lynch, though with Beagle dead that capacity is diminished. So we need to find an Elim, today. Or we’re going to lose this game. I would like to call both @Fuchsia Ostrich and @Salmon Meerkat out of the shadows to explain their thoughts on recent developments, as neither has posted in a while (I think), and because I have mild elim suspicions on both of them from gut read on Meerkat (I think like 3 players have a bad gut read on him at this point?) and from Ostrich’s inactivity and lack of meaningful content in the posts she does make. Though, we lynched Tuatara and Dingo for that, and got no Elims. Third time’s the charm?
  8. Ivory Dragonfly
    Alright, detailed summary of PM, because we need to move on from this: beagle: messages everyone, says he wants me to trust Flamingo, and that we need to stop the lynch train on them. Expresses high suspicions of the lynch. Flamingo: expresses initial suspicions of rhino and Swan. Says Rhino was untrustworthy from the beginning. Expresses suspicions of Axolotl, but worries about looking like an Elim trying to switch right after their vote on Gecko. Albatross: expresses concern about the low number of voters, saying the Elims might not be voting because a villager, ie Flamingo, is getting lynched anyway. Flamingo: expresses necessity of switching vote to Axo, worries about axo flipping village beagle: optimistic, says we’re cleared if axo flips elim Flamingo: sees Weasel in thread and hopes for a post from them on the game beagle: wonders why ppl in thread would think that we as potential Elims would as be blatant as we are Albatross: says axo flipping elim should clear us, but agrees with weasel’s argument vs Swan Beagle: agrees with suspicions of Swan. Tells Flamingo to vote axo to stay alive bc axo will vote Flamingo. Tried to contact others to swing lynch off flamingo flamingo: wants to wait and see what axo says Beagle: tells flamingo waiting is ok. Wonders why axo didn’t post anything after looking at thread flamingo: Albatross: Flamingo; albatross: Beagle: reactions to axo’s post, removing votes is suggested Flamingo: asks mods if axo is OK. Suggests vote movement albatross: says in pm that she removed vote in thread, says lion is merciless beagle: says he PMed axo asking if he wanted a pinch hitter Albatross: literally says ok and switches to mobile beagle: affirms axo is getting a pinch hitter, suggests moving vote to Swan Flamingo: says Swan lynch sounds good, hopes Swan flips elim Beagle: agrees with flamingo Albatross: glad axo got a pinch hitter, says Elims will use this against them later Beagle: wants to add elephant to pm orlok (gold text): don’t add elephant, start a new pm instead flamingo: compares gold text to the voice of God, says ok, and mentions Zebra is back on Beagle: apologizes to Orlok, remarks Swan is trying to throw doubt, and begs that she is elim flamingo: says we’re missing something end of PM there, you have the whole thing. I now have to go to school and will be on the next cycle.
  9. Ivory Dragonfly
    Possibility 1 is looking increasingly likely. Unfortunately, the issue with a small elim team is that hitting an elim at random is really, really hard. This simply encourages the Elims to blend into the shadows more, so that they are less likely to be targeted. And your point about an Elim Dustbringer is worthy of consideration. If the Elims do have a Dustbringer, than we should be scared to death. They’d have a small team to compensate, yes, but that team would likely include a Skybreaker to find important roles, and maybe an Elsecaller to help them stay alive longer. Though, given the fact that no one’s role claimed publicly, any assumptions we make are just that until we actually manage to take down an Elim. And...about that...I’ve now been at the forefront of two lynches of semiactive villagers. Part of me is kicking myself for tunneling on Tuatara near the end, as I concur with several other people that the lynch was beginning to feel too easy, but the other part of me knows that the other options weren’t any better. Vulture has said nothing that makes me explicitly trust her, but comes off as very village regardless. Flamingo, who I did accuse earlier, has stepped forward and become an active villager, and while I understand that some people see their language as suspicious, I think it’s just their writing style, as they used similar language in our PMs. Beagle I’ve defended so much at this point I feel like a broken record, but he either is a villager or the most clever Elim ever to take form and walk Roshar. If I lose to him, I will do so happily, because he had me completely fooled. Also, I’d like people to stop with the incessant suspicions of our PM group. While I understand that from the outside it looks mysterious and suspect, the village has gotten word from every person that was in it, and our accounts all agree. It was an attempt to consolidate and resolve the D2 lynch on a player we believed suspicious, initially bringing it towards Axolotl, and after their post, towards Swan. It was done mostly to preserve Flamingo, who the group saw as villager. I really don’t see how any of that screams “elim,” especially considering that as Elims, there would be little reason for us to so fully reveal the content of the PM in the main thread. Especially if the PM is as suspect as most of you are portraying it. As for the recent vote manip, I’m pretty sure I know the player who removed Tuatara’s vote on Beagle, but I get the feeling they wouldn’t want me to say anything. I mostly trust said player, but I don’t feel like it’s a wise idea to reveal who they are in thread. I doubt the core trust group (me, Beagle, Flamingo) will make it through the night unharmed. If I’m the one to die, I give Flamingo and Beagle full permission to reveal anything I said to them in PMs, though I doubt it’ll help much.
  10. Ivory Dragonfly
    I can confirm everything Beagle has been saying about the PM groups as true. It was made of people he thought for sure were villagers that he reached out to get discussion on the lynch. Granted, I missed most of it, but I read back through it, and Beagle’s account of events is completely correct. As for who role-claimed, Beagle and Elephant claimed in the general chat, Flamingo PMed me personally with his claim, and Albatross did not claim (at least to me.) Flamingo told me he had also PMed Beagle with info on his role. I don’t see the argument against Flamingo. You’re lynching them, essentially, for information, and not really on hard evidence about their behavior that they might be an elim. If we lynch for info, Tuatara is much better, as they’re acting far more suspiciously and everyone has commented on them in one way or another. I also don’t like how this vote is swinging away from them, and think the Elims may be trying to preserve a teammate indirectly. Anyway, I’m going for a long run because this is stressing me out, as is my schoolwork. I’ll return once the new cycle is up. Hopefully we’ll have killed an Elim by then. Also, a vote count for the remaining players that are undecided would be great, to help them make choices. Good luck and happy lynching! (...or something like that)
  11. Ivory Dragonfly
    Okay, that’s quite the lynch wagon on Flamingo. I will reiterate that I am almost 100% sure Flamingo is village, and that I don’t see much evidence against them. They role claimed to both Beagle and me and have spoken up about the lynch in the last few days, which I only see as a good thing. Meanwhile, my suspicion of Tuatara is compounding. They seem to be jumping on whatever lynch wagon will save them with no real explanation. Although that could be a desperate villager trying not to die. Zebra’s initial case for Ostrich is compelling, having gone back and reread it, but feels very similar to the Tuatara lynch in my mind, and since Tuatara is leading in votes I’d just be hurting my own cause to move it to Ostrich at this point. Meanwhile, I’d like those supporting a Flamingo lynch to further explain themselves. Zebra, if you want I can post relevant snippets from the villager PM as to what happened and why the group quickly moved the lynch to Swan. However, I can confirm Flamingo’s account of events as correct, for now. The Swan lynch was done by PM.
  12. Ivory Dragonfly
    Wow, Taupe Gecko. I’m not quoting that, as it’s way too long, but I will address some of your main points. And sorry, I’m skipping your summary and commentary on all the recent posts. If you didn’t catch that the Swan lynch was set up in PM, than it was. I actually haven’t really said much about it, namely since I couldn’t be on the Shard when it was happening, but basically Beagle sent a PM after a comment which Axolotl, our previous suspect, made after which the others felt very uncomfortable lynching him. He argued that Swan was the highest chance of being an elim, and so the 4 people active in the chat + bandwagon votes from Lion and Weasel, I think, moved the lynch onto Swan. Interestingly, there are only 5 votes in the GM vote count, suggesting the tampering of a Bondsmith with the vote. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Precision of Edgedancer loss can possibly be attributed to a (looking increasingly likely now) Elim Skybreaker who scanned the second Edgedancer Night 1 out of sheer luck, and then killed him night 2 to stop Beagle’s PM chains (or to clear him from suspicion). However, I’d argue that it was more just poor luck on our part. Unusual role distribution might lead us to the conclusion that our Elim ratio is off due to them having powerful roles. Maybe they even have the Dustbringer, and just have a really small team to compensate. I find that unlikely, though. Two kills a night + the relative difficulty of finding them in such a large crowd would make them incredibly powerful. However, I wouldn’t discount them having a role like Windrunner to allow them to use WGGs, a Skybreaker, and possibly an Elsecaller or two. I think we’re forgetting about Windrunners, and while they can be legitimate protection roles, they can also be drivers of WGGs. If Beagle has an accomplice, it’s definitely me, so I don’t see why you’re targeting Flamingo. I too had suspicions of them, but that was mainly due to their previous quietness, and now they’ve stepped up and begun to try to help the village. Also, they role-claimed in my personal PM, and while they may be lying, I doubt it. Especially since they apparently told Beagle as well, so I see that as a sign of trust, not something an elim would do. Unfortunately, with PMs down, I can’t confirm with Beagle, but if Beagle could acknowledge in thread that they know Flamingo’s role, that would be great. Agreed the Tuatara lynch feels too easy, but none of the other candidates are better choices, so I will stay the course.
  13. Ivory Dragonfly
    You haven’t come off as patronizing at all, don’t worry. Your analysis has been more frequent, and as I said before it’s been helpful. Regarding my earlier arguments and your refutations of them, I’d like to clarify that I didn’t think that Beagle’s information was all correct if he was village. I was mainly trying to point out that his frequent postings of his suspicions could be interpreted from an village perspective if the Elims killed him and he flipped village. With him still alive, there’s still that tiny seed of suspicion in everyone (myself included, though my logic tells me otherwise) that he just might be Elim. And so, we can’t quite fully trust him and are forced to not take his posts at face value. Believe me, Beagle’s doing much more alive than dead, but his work is undermined by the constant underlying voice in the back of everyone’s mind saying that he’s playing us all for fools. In regards to my inactives comment, I should have been more specific in saying that the Elims are choosing players that will give us little info about the game if they die. Iguana? A few short posts that didn’t say much. Scarlet Octopus? Same thing (I mean, they had one uber-long post that painfully dissected one of Kangaroo’s posts, but other than that, nothing much). If they break the pattern, I have a feeling it’ll be for an obvious reason, i.e. their Skybreaker (if they have one) finds our Dustbringer. The less info the Elims give us, the better it is for them, as our lynches are less informed.
  14. Ivory Dragonfly
    Agree with Albatross’s reads on Beagle, Onyx, Elephant, Zebra, Axoltol, Scorpion, and to some extent Toucan. Toucan’s hard to read through all the RP, but she seems neither cleared nor suspicious, so I’m inclined to let her live for now. We’ll have more info on her once the lynch resolves. I’d move Kangaroo and Gorilla to 50/50. While both have been posting analysis, they’ve also been doing so infrequently, and not enough for me to draw too many conclusions. I’ve got a village feeling from Gorilla, though, and nothing about his posts seem to stand out as suspicious. So maybe he does belong in the slight village category, but I feel that he hasn’t said enough to merit being put in one category or the other, despite his recent activity of late. Tuatara I’d move to slight elim based on the same reasons I voted for him. Weird accusation of Beagle, combined with other short and noncommittal posts, seems like an elim trying to hide. Vulture is a weird case. She’s spent three posts attempting to decipher if I’m a new player or not while simultaneously claiming that such things don’t matter. However, her other commentary on the lynch seems helpful. Really helpful, in fact. I’m not sure exactly what to make of her, but for now I’m actually leaning village. Unless someone can point something out in her behavior that’s suspect, of course. @Onyx Flamingo, would you mind further explanation of your vote on Vulture other than odd activity levels?
  15. Ivory Dragonfly
    @Cream Tuatara The info Beagle’s lynch would give us would be if we could trust him or not, which at that point would be almost moot. Sure, his reads would be confirmed as not suspicious, but even then they could be wrong, as he himself points out. The only other motive behind killing him would be if we thought he was elim, a chance that’s next to zero at this point. His creation of so many PMs seems to point to a villager trying to unite the village and garner discussion. And frankly, even though PMs are closed now, he succeeded. People like Amber Vulture and Turquoise Gorilla are much more active now ( through a combination of pinch-hitters stepping in and Beagle’s outreach), and the whole village is talking more. Of course, with him making so many posts and PMs, there’s bound to be a comment or two that feels off or suspicious, as (I think) Vulture said. But when you look at his posts, and his actions in creating the PMs as a whole, there’s really very little to suggest he’s evil. @Sunburst Toucan If you don’t take my word for it that I am new, you can ask Oxblood Beagle and Cream Tuatara, both of whom came to the correct conclusion about my real identity separately. While I’d ask them not to reveal it, they know I have never played SE before. My use of terms like WGG comes from having read the rules like 20 times, looking through past game threads, and following LG41. Again, ask Beagle or Tuatara if you want confirmation. I’m not saying that you should be taking pity on me, I’m simply letting you know that I’m not lying when I say I’m new. Which is likely where the other things you noticed about me come from: I’m probably too willing to trust, and haven’t played enough to really get a feel for suspicious behavior, as that’s something reading back through old game threads won’t teach you. It’s one thing to see suspicious behavior in a thread and recognize it with the clarity of hindsight than it is to actively identify it. Which is probably why I mistakenly trust some people that may flip as Elims. For similar reasons to Beagle, I still distrust Tuatara. I’d like to be able to trust Beagle completely; I think we all would. However, the dearth of evidence against him, a player with upwards of 50 posts, makes it a bad lynch in my eyes. A similar amount of evidence against Tuatara, who has made a dozen fairly short posts, is suspicious. My vote stays where it is until I see a reason to move it. Edit: ninja’d by a ton of people. And, duh, my choice of wording at the end of paragraph three was terrible, so I’ll go ahead and point that out before someone else does. It sounds really Elim even to me.
  16. Ivory Dragonfly
    Cream Tuatara: Stated my suspicions of them. Not much to add here, and those last two posts don’t make me any less suspicious. The vote on Lion, while it may have been a genuine mistake, was still not explained well, and it could have been a contrived mistake to try and get themselves trusted with relatively little effort. My vote stays on him until he steps forth and offers commentary. Fuschia Ostrich: Again, on the activity fringe making a lot of NAI posts. Gives me reason to suspect he/she might be elim. One post that did pop out to me was the vote on Weasel, done to tie the vote and let RNG decide the first vote. Seems random and NAI, but I’ll keep an eye on it. Pearl Chameleon: I actually trust him. I know that he hasn’t posted frequently, but his few posts are insightful and they help the village. But... I did find the post I was talking about earlier. Chameleon was the one who defended Meerkat, but it seems to be well-intentioned so I don’t know if it’s sufficient grounds for lynching if Meerkat flips elim. Definently keeping an eye on that post though. Salmon Meerkat: He’s one of those players that everything about his posts sounds okay, but the underlying tone makes me nervous. I can’t really attribute it to anything other than gut feeling, so I’m not going to lynch him for such a terrible reason, but I will be following his posts closely to see if I can puzzle him out. @Sage Kangaroo I think there’s a simpler reason the Elims haven’t killed Beagle: it would confirm nearly everything he’s been saying as true. If I was elim, I would wait to kill Beagle until the very end of the game, letting the suspicion on him build to negate some of his meaningful commentary and to deflect suspicion away from themselves. Of course, this assumes village!Beagle, but I don’t really see much of a case for Elim!Beagle, as his comments seem genuine, as do his motives. Again, not completely ignoring him as a suspect, but I trust him.
  17. Ivory Dragonfly
    Feeling a bit sorry for Beagle as his whole PM Empire collapsed around his furry ears. Elims going after inactives makes a lot of sense to me. Killing an actually active player would generate valuable discussion for the village, and since they know which inactives are village they can kill them with impunity as we try to puzzle out the frequent posters. We typically only lynch actives, as they’re easier to build cases against, but the real Elims are hiding somewhere on the “activity fringe.” Like, 6-12 posts. Enough to contribute without reprimand, but not enough to give us the ability to solidly analyze them. Maybe one of them is a frequent contributor, but the rest are hiding. That said, who to lynch? I’m scanning the activity fringe, and find myself suspicious of Cream Tuatara. On the Shard recently (1 hour ago), but hasn’t really posted anything except some short NAI posts that deflected attention from him. Until I find a reason to trust him, I’m voting Cream Tuatara. We have to start going for the semiactives, and I feel he’s the best place to start. At least, hopefully this vote will inspire him to post some solid analysis. I’m also suspicious of Salmon Meerkat, though it’s more of a gut feel than anything else and not something I would actually lynch him for. In addition, I think someone made a post defending him, which if Meerkat does flip elim, we should likely investigate. I’ll scan the thread again to see if I can find it. I urge all villagers (and Elims too, I guess) to get some discussion going on the lynch. A weekend day cycle is perfect for lynch discussion, so hopefully this will develop nicely and we can lynch an actual Elim.
  18. Ivory Dragonfly
    Dang...those are some great keteks. Props to the writer. Sorry I couldn’t get on sooner, staying up late last night took something out of me and in the morning I’d completely forgotten to post here. I’ll look back over the night thread soon, just want to let people know I’m still here, and should be more active over the weekend.
  19. Ivory Dragonfly
    Yeah, every weekday. But they’re at 3:00 after school, which is generally the hottest part of the day. And you’re sweating plenty after a few 800s. They’ve kind of been the reason I haven’t posted as much as I would have liked over the past few days, but part of it is just typical school schedule. After finishing my research paper on invasive species, I can say with great confidence that the Elims are the invasive species in our Rosharan ecosystem. We need all villagers to look for signs of foreign or exotic origin among these animals, so we may exile them before all us native species are dead.
  20. Ivory Dragonfly
    Okay, back from school and there’s SO MUCH to catch up on, so sorry if I come off as slightly distracted. Swan lynch shouldn’t have happened. I didn’t trust Swan but never really suspected them either, and it’s a shame we lost a contributing village member. That said, I don’t know if anyone in it can be pegged as elim, as Swan herself said. Thanks to my accusations, Flamingo and Albatross have become active participants, and looking at their posts I now mostly trust them actually. alright have to write a research paper but will try to post before I go to bed. Sorry for low quality of this post.
  21. Ivory Dragonfly
    I agree with his comments about inactive players needing to post more, but I don’t trust that he’s a villager. I’m a little annoyed that we have so little information to go on for this lynch. We have half the discussion we did D1 (though I suppose D1 was a weekend, so people, including myself, could get on more.) I’ve read back through the first cycle again, and still no one I haven’t already examined jumps out at me. There’s a few people I have mild suspicions of, but due to low activity levels I can’t really build a comprehensive case against them simply because I haven’t heard enough from them. With no other options, I’m keeping my vote on Mint Heron, which sucks because I won’t be online again until after the cycle ends. I urge the village to please find a good lynch candidate among the flurry of posts from D1, and succeed where I have failed. The people I have mild suspicions of are @Magenta Albatross and @Amethyst Scorpion, for general low post quality, and the posts they do make talking about the lynch seem off. Can’t really say much more, but PLEASE make a good decision today. At the very least, actually lynch someone. Our votes are too spread out.
  22. Ivory Dragonfly
    I fully agree with you @Onyx Flamingo. While I may have devoted an absurd amount of my life to this game over the weekend, I’m now on a more limited schedule that lets me make 2-3 posts at night and 1 in the morning. However, I’m trying to cram as much analysis into each as I can, to continue to try to be active. I’m not asking for a full commitment to posting, just that each person could put out at least 1 solid post per day. If we want to be able to find the Elims, we need discussion among all members of the village. That said, with the cycle so close to ending, I can’t afford to use my vote as a poke vote, since due to the nature of my schedule it’s more than likely I won’t be able to get on the Shard within 10 hours of the cycle ending. I need to place my vote now, and see where things stand in the morning. So...yeah, I don’t have a suspect to really vote on. Though I still don’t trust Flamingo fully, I don’t have enough on him to justify a lynch vote. Same goes for Meerkat. So, I will poke vote Mint Heron despite my earlier assurance that I would do no such thing, and hope that the lynch develops enough overnight to give me a clearer target in the morning.
  23. Ivory Dragonfly
    Alright, track practice got done early so I can share some thoughts now: I don’t trust you. (Sorry.) My reason for swinging the lynch away from you was that you had been posting your thoughts consistently, and Dingo was just as suspicious but was offering far less insight into the lynch than you were. Better to lynch him, a lurker, than you, since you’re active in chat and will actually respond to discussion about the lynch. Plus, reading over your posts again, your actions make a bit more sense, even if I don’t agree with some of them. Would you mind explaining your suspicions of Gecko? His D1 voting was odd, I’ll grant you, but now he’s stepped forward a bit and answered our accusations, so unless you have more specific evidence against him, I don’t see much of a case for lynching him now that he’s decided to be a contributing village member. I would like to think that I’ve been expressing my opinions of Flamingo fairly civilly, but if there’s a post or section of a post of mine that could be perceived as aggressive or confrontational, please tell me and I will try to fix it. I haven’t been trying to “go at the throat” of Flamingo, merely express my suspicions. As for Flamingo himself (herself?), I haven’t really seen anything from him that makes me less suspicious. Nor have I seen anything that makes me more suspicious. Personally, I’d like some commentary on the lynch from them. I personally think that the best way to identify people is by having everyone contribute more. If more people do RP, and discuss the lynch, it will be easier to differentiate between people. Although spreadsheets and notes might help, discussion is the key to a healthy village.
  24. Ivory Dragonfly
    I never said that I was going to lynch you based on that post, and had no intention of doing so. It simply felt off to me, and I wanted an explanation behind your thought processes to clear some of my suspicions. As Coral Swan said, the only way the village can find Elims is by lynching people. The threat of a lynch forces players to talk, and if we simply track the Elim kills there’s really no way to sort out who they are when there’s no discussion in-thread. And you also have to follow through on the lynch, so Elims don’t think they can just sit back, make a few posts about nothing really at all, and keep killing people. Yes, I was originally opposed to a day 1 lynch. Call me a hypocrite if you will, but I’ve come to see the reasoning behind it, and I think Dingo’s lynch was beneficial in the sense that even though we lost a villager, we cleared a potential suspect and can now move on to other players. Beagle’s first comment, while obvious, seems genuine based on his preamble to it. With little night discussion, and people submitting kill orders and such, he’s hoping the village benefits. While it may seem off slightly, it’s also obvious what his intent is (even if he is Elim, he’s not going to say “oh I hope a ton of villagers die tonight”) so I was simply wondering why you asked for clarification when you probably already knew the answer. In the second post, he mentions that if the village wants a lynch they should consolidate their spread-out votes. This makes logical sense, and is a post that anyone wanting a D1 lynch would likely make, regardless of their alignment. I don’t really see how you find it suspicious. The third post is him agreeing with the Dingo lynch and placing his vote on it. He likely didn’t want to make the same points I did over again, and so simply quoted me. As to your accusation that Beagle and I are somehow collaborating secretively, yes, we have a PM and both trust each other as villagers. That doesn’t mean I have a blind spot for him- again, his “hopes everything goes well” post feels off to me. However, when taken in context with the entirety of his posts, it makes more sense. We trust each other, and I don’t see how that’s a bad thing as long as I’m keeping an eye on his posts for any suspicious comments. Anyway, I have to go to school now, so I hope lynch discussion develops as I’m away. Should be back around 6 pm EST.
  25. Ivory Dragonfly
    Pressed for time is quite a legitimate reason, as I know that feeling well. Consider my suspicions of that post assayed. I had overlooked some of your reasons for your vote on Swan, but your “fluff” post still seems suspect. While I understand this may just be your way of saying that the post was meant to prompt lynch discussion instead of being a specific accusation of Swan, it still comes off strangely. But I’ll look over it for now, as your intentions seem fairly clear, even if the post was not. My last point about the redirection of the lynch was addressed mainly at you because you specifically moved the lynch from a player that was (at the time) unresponsive and random to a player that had been actively posting. Now, I understand you were trying to broaden the range of lynch canidates (and I am glad you steered the vote away from Gecko, as he’s actually a useful villager now that he’s explaining himself), but at the time the vote seemed somewhat random and based on fairly flimsy evidence, considering that Swan was active and doing her best to contribute to discussion. (Although that may be a common theme across most D1 lynches.) Nevertheless, now that Swan has become less suspect, who do you propose we lynch? I still think @Onyx Flamingois most suspect for reasons outlined in my previous post, but I’d like to hear more of your thoughts.
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