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Ivory Dragonfly

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  1. Ivory Dragonfly
    @Mint Heron Thank you for the explanation. I still don’t fully understand it, but it does kind of solidify, at least to me, that Mouse should be lynched next cycle. I’ll look back at the thread with the new knowledge you have imparted to me. @Pearl Chameleon I’m not beating myself up over it, just kinda annoyed that a)all my suspicions were wrong and b)people still listened to me anyway. Especially since I’m new. Then again, maybe a better policy would have been to talk less if I wanted my suspicions ignored. But I can’t really do anything without going whole-hog, so I suppose this’ll just be my play style and I’ll just need to play a few more games to get a bit more experience. So I’ll talk a lot, but hopefully the quality of that speech will improve with time. Also, now that you’re here, mind posting some thoughts on the game?
  2. Ivory Dragonfly
    @Amethyst Scorpion That’d be me soothing Vulture’s vote. Also, I love that despite our constant disagreement, I’ve been helping keep you alive for a few turns now @Sapphire Elephant No offense, but I actually completely forgot that you claimed in the trust group when I made that post. So yeah, it’s someone else’s role, but if people are wondering why I haven’t been going after Elephant too hard it’s because I think claiming in a group like that is a fairly strong sign of trust, even if they’ve made a few “off” posts. Or their Worldhopper drew Bondsmith, which I find far more likely. If they did have a Bondsmith, they’d have likely been using it consistently to sow suspicion and doubt. Also, if we have a Village Windrunner, they just have to win a game of IKYK with the Elims. Easy, right? Top suspicions are Falcon and Mouse, followed by Zebra, Axolotl, Scorpion, and Toucan. Slight suspicions of Chameleon. Also, still waiting on that explanation of weird Disciples and memberships and PM trust and what? Yeah, somebody please explain that so I can begin to interpret it, as it sounds like a foreign language to me.
  3. Ivory Dragonfly
    Wrong again. I’d like a really thorough explanation on what exactly was happening at the end of last cycle, as I understood absolutely none of it. Since most of you have probably figured out by now, I am my own Bondsmith contact. I thought Vulture was suspect, and clearly I was wrong. I removed her vote, which may have caused her lynch. However, another Bondsmith removed a vote on Mouse, so I’d say he’s our most likely suspect, if we make it through tonight. Only people I might trust at this point are Kangaroo, Heron, and Albatross. Scorpion I’m probably wrong about, as he’s looking Elim (again) to me, for what it’s worth. I’ve been so consistently wrong that you should probably just ignore me at this point. Lynch me tomorrow if you will. I probably deserve it, after killing so many villagers. But there you have it. Everything I know (except the role of one person, but I’m not revealing that unless they give me permission). We’re probably not going to win this one, but I’m going out kicking and screaming. I encourage everyone else to do the same.
  4. Ivory Dragonfly
    Alright, this Scorpion lynch is bothering me. But I’ll get to that later in this post. Elephant, I’ve mostly dropped suspicions of Ostrich because he’s started to contribute. My distrust was based on his inactivity, and his lack of saying anything significant. Now that Ostrich 1.0 has been replaced with the pinch hitter, their activity has gone up further. So yeah, Scorpion lynch and why people are voting: Based on one vote of Scorpion’s that he reads as suspicious. Not a terrible read of the vote, but it’s fairly flimsy grounds for a lynch. Scorpion, as I said earlier, feels like a desperate villager trying to save himself. Going after a trusted player like me would be a poor way to stay hidden and unlynched. Yeah, no real reason given, not even nebulous “suspicions.” Other than being the other target of the lynch. This is a bandwagon/self-preservation vote. Hard to really phrase due to argument initially being in RP, but essentially “your vote reason is flimsy, looks like you’re not worried because you might be an Elim with teammates to back you up,” which itself feels like flimsy reasoning to me, and based on assumptions. Mouse: Puts it on him with a neutral read on Scorpion and says he will likely move it later. Never does. So this lynch has even less proof behind it than my Vulture lynch. Also, I’m sensing an effort to save Vulture, which could come from villagers but is probably Elims trying to save their teammate. I’d point out that Vulture is not confirmed Elim, obviously, but based on the evidence I have, my vote will stay on Vulture. Going to school and will be back post-rollover. At the very least, don’t lynch Scorpion. He’s a terrible candidate with the evidence we have so far. Try Mouse or Vulture. Either could be Elims.
  5. Ivory Dragonfly
    I agree with Heron’s suspicions of Mouse. I was thinking similarly, but you put it into words much better than I did when I tried to explain it last cycle. That said, I still feel Elim about Vulture and would like a response before I change my vote, since I’ve been doing a lot of that recently. Crap, just realized I’ll have to be in school for the last 12 hours of lynch discussion, meaning I won’t get to use my vote on whichever person seems more likely to be lynched (between Culture and Mouse) by the end of the cycle. Drat it all. Guess I’ll have to try to guess which one in the morning, and hope the village consolidates in that direction. I’ll share that Flamingo expressed suspicions of Ostrich, Axolotl, Vulture, and Toucan in our PM. Not much, just a little insight as to his thought processes. And also a bit of a tribute to a fallen comrade in the Beagle Trust Group. Though some of those comrades might be Elims, I’ll at least salute the village ones as they die. Everyone in the village needs to post at least a vote and a brief analysis of said vote. We cannot hand this lynch to the Elims. (How many times have I said that? 5? 6? 500?) I’ll have at least one more post pre-rollover. Please discuss tonight so we have more to go on tomorrow. Edit: Typo on Vulture, but it’s a beautiful typo, so I’ll leave it as is.
  6. Ivory Dragonfly
    Alright...Mauve Crocodile. I’m still suspicious of you, but I don’t really want to lynch someone that’s trying to be active, but in a way my encouragement of everyone to be active isn’t just to draw the villagers out to vote, but also to draw the Elims out of the shadows. I’d like more explanation of your vote on Flamingo D3, though. Well, for now, I’d like you to be more specific in your suspicion on Scorpion. While I said I’d support a Scorpion lynch (and I still do, to some extent), this feels way too easy. Like the Dingo lynch, and Meerkat, and Weasel. You’ve provided little reasoning, not even saying you have suspicions of him, and seem to be lynching him just for self-preservation. And about that... You say you’re a villager. This is obviously completely NAI, as anyone can claim this, but why would you make such a statement in the first place? You challenge me to find evidence of your villagerness while at the same time saying “I am a villager,” so I’m obviously not supposed to take this just at your word. But when I do look through your posts, yes, there’s nothing obviously incriminating, but this doesn’t clear you. All of the people with “obviously incriminating” posts are dead by now, and lynching another (Scorpion) won’t accomplish much, I feel. A village tone is no longer indicative of a villager. Yes, this includes me. Analyze me at your pleasure. At this point, no one should be treated as safe. Oh yeah, and looking at the D3 lynch- eleven currently alive people voted on that lynch. Eleven. Even assuming ten villagers, at least one Elim found it necessary to vote in that lynch. And do you really want me to believe that all four people still alive who didn’t vote in that lynch are all Elims? The Elims had an interest in that lynch, enough to make several of them vote. Probably to preserve a teammate, as I can’t see them being too concerned about 1 Willshaper or a regular villager. (Flamingo was immune to scans). So, being the only person left alive from that lynch, I suspect you. Sorry, but I’ll have to put my vote back on you, Amber Vulture. @Sunburst Toucan I don’t think Orlok would intentionally handicap a team like that, though of course I could be wrong. I still find Elim Skybreaker to be the best explanation for our Lightweavers, though.
  7. Ivory Dragonfly
    So for now Amber Vulture. I’d still like to see more from you, but I have a better target. I hope. Muave Crocodile gave a lot of people, including me, an initial village read from the tone of their posts. However, I did my re-scan of the Flamingo wagon from D3. The only living villagers on it are Zebra and Crocodile. Zebra says he was tunneling, which I’ll let slide for now, but Crocodile gave poor reasoning for his vote on Flamingo, and combined with the swing away from him on D4, makes me very leery of him. Also not that frequent of a poster, so he could be trying to hide on the activity fringe. Not a great case, but I don’t really see any better ones at the moment. I retain some of my suspicion on Zebra, and would like Vulture to post, but neither merits lynching yet, I don’t think. I’d also like contribution from @Pearl Chameleon, who I haven’t seen in a while, and anyone else lurking in the shadows. Come out and vote. We need your votes, and the Elims will win if we don’t lynch one of them this cycle. Also, our third village Lightweaver seems to be a confirmation of an Elim Skybreaker. Which I suppose is fitting, in a way.
  8. Ivory Dragonfly
    Okay, my crazy paranoia that Flamingo was someone pulling a really good one on all of us was just disproved. They were honest the whole game, as the role-claim they made in chat with me was accurate. Makes me feel a bit better about Albatross, too. I’m going to look through all the D3 posts accusing Flamingo. Any Elims trying to swing a lynch onto her would have appeared that day, so I’ll take another look at her accusers. This makes me very suspicious of Amber Vulture, who was the only candidate up for lynch that day that hasn’t flipped village. Then again, maybe the Elims want us to think that...IKYK. But I’d still like to hear more from them anyways, so this is more of a poke vote with significant analysis (hopefully) pending. I dislike the notion that I’m a mayor. Guys, this is my first game! I shouldn’t be a mayor that soon, if at all. I think it’s more that I devote too much of my life to this game and then expect everyone else to do the same. I am trying to encourage activity though, since I don’t want to let the Elims take control of the lynch.
  9. Ivory Dragonfly
    Onyx Flamingo, if we looked at the conflicts with the assumption that they’re Elim/village interactions, I see the Elims being Crocodile and Toucan. (I can’t really offer commentary on the Zebra/Ostrich thing, since Ostrich never replied.) Of course, that’s a terrible assumption to make, but it’s something to bear in mind. I for one think both Toucan and Albatross are village, but of course I could be wrong. Crocodile is likely my strongest suspect now. Looking back at the D4 lynch, the wild bandwagon to Meerkat could have been organized by Elims fearful of pressure building on Crocodile. Unlikely? Yes. Best lead I have right now, unfortunately, and I have to go to school so I’ll be back after rollover.
  10. Ivory Dragonfly
    Okay, I figure I owe @Violet Axolotl a bit of an apology after somehow missing their post saying that their odds of Elimness went up under their system as well. (Yeah I structured that sentence terribly so I hope someone made sense out of it.) With this peice of information in mind, I suspect Axolotl somewhat less, though I would like them to explain why they think we are near the endgame. Are we really? I mean, we’ll be close to even with the elims after 2 turns of their night kills and 2 mislynches, so I guess that would end the game? We’d better kill an Elim tomorrow if that’s the case. Therefore, just putting up my standard urging of ALL villagers to be active. Your vote is key! Don’t hand the lynch to the Elims two cycles early. Did a thorough reread of Zebra’s posts and the only really incriminating thing I can find is the amount of time he spent on the PM group. Again, might be confirmation bias, but this could be an Elim trying to derail discussion for a day and get a villager (Beagle) lynched. They admit this tunneling right before Beagle dies, too, so it almost seems like a hand-washing (though, to be fair, it would have been hard to guess that Gorilla was going to use his kill action on Beagle). I think I’m getting a little too far into IKYK with Zebra, so I think I’ll just back off my immediate suspicions and resolve to keep an eye on him. Not cleared, but the initial strong village read looks, well, strong. Nothing else at the moment so I’ll probably turn in for the night and make another post in the morning before the cycle closes.
  11. Ivory Dragonfly
    Okay, this is completely absurd. We’ve wasted two lynches on a villager, by the consensus of literally everyone, and a lot of it done at my urging. I should just stop taking as if I know what I’m doing. If I die: my suspicions are Violet Axolotl: This voting system is likely defunct, as we just lynched someone with a 87% chance of being an Elim. In addition, their posts feel weird and generally off to me. For instance, they accused me of leading a lynch on an Elsecaller on the premise that I somehow knew they were an Elsecaller, while bringing up no evidence to support their claim, and completely ignoring that the same argument could be applied to them. Azure Mouse: Okay, they’ve posted lots of reads, which seems helpful and villager-y, but the reads aren’t that in-depth, and were I an elim a great strategy to use would be something like this, where I post enough of a mixture of truth and lies that the village just kind of overlooks me. Emerald Falcon/Fuschia Ostrich/Muave Crocodile/Sapphire Elephant: Too few posts for me to get any significant read, but the tone on some (particularly Falcon and Crocodile) feels off. I still think there are Elims in the semiactives. These four are the only semiactives left. (Elephant and Ostrich have been better lately, but I’d still like to see more from them). I’d also keep an eye on Onyx Flamingo and Sage Kangaroo. I mostly trust them as villagers, but a lot of that comes from PMs and as people have said PMs can be shaky. They’ve struck me as village generally, and have shown signs of trust, but if everyone around them starts dropping we might want to put them under the microscope. Other people: Vulture: Leaning village based on structure, tone, and helpful content of their posts. Again, willing to keep an eye on her. Scorpion: Kinda annoys me slightly, and I still don’t like their vote on me, but I think they’re a villager just from the way they’re willing to stick out their neck and put out a different lynch candidate. That said, if Scorpion flips Elim take a good hard look at Pearl Chameleon, who defended him when he was about to be lynched. Albatross: Neutral leaning village. I’ve explained my thoughts on Albatross D5 (I think), but I get a general village feel from their posts. Heron: Complete neutral read. They’ve posted a lot, but have done so in a way that makes it tough for me to actually get hints about their alignment. I’ll look through their stuff once I finish this post. Chameleon: Slight village read. The tone of their posts is village, at least, though I’ll have to look back through their posts again to confirm this initial read. Toucan: See Albatross, I have basically the same thoughts on them, though I do think Toucan is the likelier of the two to be Elim. Zebra: Actually one of my stronger Elim reads. Now, I understand this is mildly controversial, but Zebra seems like one of those people that’s really great at adopting a village tone with their posts, but is actually an Elim. I have no evidence whatsoever to back this up, so please take this post with a grain of salt. However, one only need see LG41 *cough*Seonid*cough* to find an example of an Elim that was really great at conveying a village tone. I suppose you could also lump Kangaroo into this category, but for some reason I suspect him less. Might be a bad thing in the end, but *shrug*. I’m definitely looking back through Zebra’s stuff to see if I can find any specific examples, though. For now, just ignore this, but I would like 2 other villagers, at least, to aid me in examining Zebra’s posts to insure that I’m not engaging in confirmation bias. I support lynching Scorpion tomorrow for info, but I’d love to hear what the rest of the village thinks, since my judgement has clearly not been the best recently.
  12. Ivory Dragonfly
    Okay, had a long post written and planned out, but my editor didn’t save it when I tried to scroll back through the thread. I’ll try to give a brief summary since I’m short on time. Still don’t trust Axolotl’s system. The odds of everyone’s Elimness goes up if he dies, despite most of us advocating a lynch on him. Except Zebra and Toucan for some reason. Mint Heron makes good points about PM safety. That said, I still feel OK about my contacts, since I trust them as villagers. If I’m wrong, I’ll die happily, because they did a pretty good job of deceiving me. Will be on next cycle. Kind of disappointed in the lack of discussion this cycle. Oh well.
  13. Ivory Dragonfly
    Axolotl, would you mind posting all of your percentages? It might help us get a clearer idea of what your voting system is, as all we have to go on right now is your word for it. If we have the results in thread, it’ll be helpful to the village if someone other than you could see how your system is working. If Weasel flips village, I’m going to take a really close look at the Elsecaller I contacted, as I think my role analysis from before still has merit. If he flips Elim, I’ll be a lot happier. Storm it, Toucan, I got too caught up in reading the doc instead of just looking at the top. Well, point taken. But, if Weasel does end up being an Elim Worldhopper, that’s all the better for us, as it’s probably a better role to take out than Elsecaller. Though that is some rotten luck if he drew Elsecaller just when we tried to lynch him.
  14. Ivory Dragonfly
    @Mint Heron Fair point. However, judging by the number of regular villagers that have been dying, the proportion suggests something in the range of 14-17 people with roles. So, about two roles per character type would be typical. In terms of PM safety, I offered my own role before asking others for theirs, and made the sharing completely optional. That they chose to do so reflects trust on their part, and not deception on mine. Worldhoppers are powerful, but I don’t know if they’re so powerful that there can only be one of them. That said, based on the Gorilla kill, at least 1 Worldhopper is probably Elim. However, it wouldn’t be Weasel, since the one last cycle drew Edgedancer, so I think Weasel is just a regular Elsecaller. Finally, people need to contribute more. The more we talk, the better our chances of hitting an Elim. I’ll be back around 6, as per usual.
  15. Ivory Dragonfly
    I said I would support a relynch of Weasel, and they’ve said nothing, so Indigo Weasel until they present a compelling enough argument to make me want to retract my vote. I’m pretty sure we have an Elim here, based on role analysis- the village has all the Edgedancers, Lightweavers, Bondsmiths, and the only Dustbringer. The Elims likely have 1 Willshaper (not 100% sure here though), 1 Windrunner for WGGs and protection against our Dustbringer (which is now moot), 1 Skybreaker to find important village roles, a Worldhopper, and an Elsecaller as further protection against lynches and vigilante kills. The village has the other person with each of these roles. Since I know the other Elsecaller, and the other Bondsmith, and am 95% sure that both are villagers, I think Weasel is our elim Elsecaller. The only thing that gives me pause is that if Weasel is a villager, we’ve wasted two lynches. But I’m willing to take that risk (and any blame that goes along with it). Note: Since I’ve heard AGs screw with role distributions, the Elims might have both Skybreakers or both Windrunners, instead of the Willshaper. Or even both Worldhoppers (if there are 2). It’d be weird to have an Elim team without vote manip, though. Also, Rhino died. I kind of thought he was an Elim, but I guess not. I’ll have to look back through the thread to get more insight on it, but in keeping with the other Elim kills it doesn't give us much in the way of info. Edit: Keteks again, suggesting the same Worldhopper. This could mean that we only have one Worldhopper, though it isn’t unreasonable to assume that we have 2 and that one is just unlucky about getting Edgedancer.
  16. Ivory Dragonfly
    Okay, now I’m seeing Kangaroo’s point about lynching Elsecallers, as this is annoying as heck. I fully support lynching Weasel again, but I’d be interested to hear what others have to say on this. also, maybe the fact that he’s an Elsecaller was why Weasel never really bothered to defend himself. Edit: Don’t know why this didn’t occur to me, but we probably have a new Weasel. I still support lynching him, but I’m interested to hear what our new Weasel has to say.
  17. Ivory Dragonfly
    @Plum Rhinoceros Now that I’ve gone through the whole village, I’ve looked at Toucan’s posts. I told Flamingo this in PM, but I might want a Toucan lynch if Weasel flips Elim. Weasel flipping Elim would (somewhat) justify Axolotl’s system, and Toucan does seem to be trying to swing the lynch towards Albatross, who I’ve consistently said I have a very village read on. That said, I think she’s being misconstrued a bit. At least to me, she feels a lot like Swan did from D2 when she was lynched. And who instigated that lynch before the PM swung it on to her? Oh yeah, Weasel. Which is why my vote is where it is. That and the lynch seems to be getting yanked away from Weasel by several attempts, and I’m beginning to wonder if that’s because Weasel is truly guilty. So yes, a Toucan lynch would impart information, but not as much as people are implying. Sure, we know if she’s cleared or not, but if she flips village, everyone involoves in the lynch will apologize and distance themselves. Then we get nothing. So, sticking to the vote on Weasel. And, ninja’d by Kangaroo. Excellent. Second time that’s happened this cycle.
  18. Ivory Dragonfly
    So, I think Chameleon is correct here. Scorpion probably wouldn’t stick his neck out like that if he was elim. We can’t make the same mistake 2 cycles in a row. I don’t think scorpion is being particularly helpful right now, and I might disagree with their opinion on analysis, but I can’t lynch him for it . Not after what happened with Meerkat. So, Amethyst Scorpion. You may be unhelpful, but Indigo Weasel is looking more suspicious than you are. See my previous logic for voting on him. Lynching Toucan for info would be interesting, @Pearl Chameleon, but I’d rather lynch a person who I think is an Elim. Toucan can be left alive- we can lynch her next cycle if she’s suspicious, and I’d rather hit an Elim this round to help improve our village/elim ratio, which is pretty bad at this point if we assume 5 Elims. We could be in a very bad position by next round if we don’t hit an elim, especially if one of their workdhoppers (if they have one) draws Division. If we assume 2-3 of our villagers don’t contribute to the lynch voting each round, with a little bit of vote manip the Elims could control the lynch by next round. So let’s take down someone we think is suspicious. Also, I’d say a Weasel lynch still gives info, as if he flips elim we can look at the people who tried to swing the lynch to scorpion, especially Falcon. Those are my thoughts for now. A bit busy but I’ll try to be on one more time before the cycle ends.
  19. Ivory Dragonfly
    Alright, I’ve been using other people’s vote counts so much that I figure it’s only fair I make one myself. Don’t know how to do the strike through thing, so only current votes in this count: 4-Scorpion: Fuschia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Sage Kangaroo, Ivory Dragonfly(I vote for him later this post) 3-Weasel: Violet Axolotl, Pearl Chameleon, Mauve Crocodile 1-Dragonfly: Amethyst Scorpion 1-Albatross: Sunburst Toucan 1-Toucan: Magenta Albatross 1-Vulture: Mint Heron Alright, we have a nice field of candidates, and half of the village has voted. That’s encouraging. Speaking of voting, I should probably do the same, now that I’ve had some time to look over people’s arguments. (Update: And now have done so, voting on Scorpion.) Starting from the bottom with the lynch candidates: Vulture: I have a bit of a village read on her, and I don’t agree with Heron’s logic for the lynch. While it’s fine to monitor players you have a null read on, lynching them for it is something else entirely. Albatross/Toucan: They’re kind of inseparable at this point, so I’m lumping them together because I have the same conclusion on them. I think they’re both tunneling villagers, with Albatross tunneling less than Toucan is. Toucan and Albatross are both using fairly ordinary posts to cast suspicion and doubt on each other, and the determination showed by both makes me read villager, as I don’t think an Elim would tie themselves this fully to a lynch candidate. It’ll be interesting if the Elims kill Toucan to try to cast doubt on Albatross, though, or vice versa. I see the cases in the arguments you are making against each other, Vanna and Albatross, but I think actions speak louder than words at this point. Village read on both with some lingering suspicions on Toucan that I can’t really shake for some reason. Also, you two should be the model for how to civilly disagree with another player. Dragonfly: Hi. Weasel: My initial suspicion. Hasn’t posted anything this cycle, even in self defense, making me wonder if he’s trying to go quiet just to throw us off. Notably, since he isn’t here to explain his thought processes behind his posts, I have no choice but to interpret them how I see fit. And right now, they look suspect to me. Scorpion: Not looking too good right now, though my perception of him might be slightly colored since he did accuse me earlier, so keep that in mind as you read this. I try to avoid commenting on myself unless I’m defending myself against a lynch, but the case for Scorpion is centered around me somewhat, so I kind of have no choice. Basically, Scorpion’s one of those people that I’ve been a bit suspicious of for a while just based on tone. All his previous posts, looking back at them, are really NAI and I can’t help but think that’s how he wanted them to look. Today, he’s made a weird vote on me, done for fairly nebulous reasons, and then attempts to justify this vagueness by saying analysis wouldn’t have helped. Which is a statement I can’t disagree with more. If nobody posts analysis, how are we supposed to find Elims? This was our big problem D4- no one contributed significant lynch analysis, we lynched on gut read, and had a runaway bandwagon on a villager. Finally, the one major post he did make before today, his vote on Weasel, is not being referenced at all. It looked kind of weird when it was made, as Weasel responded immediately to it then, almost as if the disagreement was set up. (It’s notable that today, Weasel hasn’t responded to anything against him with the speed and passion with which he responded to Scorpion). But today, Scorpion is trying to dissociate from that earlier vote, saying he “doesn’t feel good or bad about Weasel directly.” Based on his earlier post, that’s not the case. So, Amethyst Scorpion. To end, I’ll say that I retain my suspicion of Violet Axolotl and now somewhat suspect Emerald Falcon, though since neither are getting lynched it’d be a wasted vote. Plus, I distrust Scorpion more. I’m actually pretty happy that our leading lynch candidates are both people I have Elim reads on, but knowing my track record they’ll probably both flip village.
  20. Ivory Dragonfly
    @Sunburst Toucan Fair enough. I wasn’t really thinking clearly when I made that post, as I crashed for an hour almost immediately afterwards, and was mostly quoting Elephant without giving him credit. I still have a village read on Albatross, though I will say that it’s slightly disconcerting that he hasn’t appeared to defend himself in the chat. Do you have thoughts on today’s lynch, @Magenta Albatross? Weasel is still off to me, though I do see the case for him being a chaotic villager. While I’m leaning Elim on him, I don’t think I’ll keep my vote on him this cycle simply because if he does flip village, we gain no info from the lynch. Today is the day, I feel, that we lynch someone who’s a bit more active, because we need more info, and we’ll only get that by lynching someone who nearly everyone has commented on. I’d also like to lynch someone I think is suspicious. That might mean someone whose tone sounds village. But good Elims, I should think, can fake a village tone. And we really need to look into players like Vulture, Elephant and Zebra more. They sound village. I have a village read on them, and all three have posted great analysis. But they could have ulterior motives. We need to be careful. I apologize, Scorpion. For some reason I missed your post about Falcon. So, looking back through a few player’s records, I’ve got literally nothing. I want to commit myself to a full reread of the thread... but... ugh, that’ll take so long. But I kinda have to do it if I really want a comprehensive view of things. Please tag me if you respond to this post so that I’ll know I’ve been contacted as I wander in the huge original thread.
  21. Ivory Dragonfly
    Well, not too terribly much to catch up on. Zebra, thank you for your analysis. Your points about Weasel are interesting and merit consideration. I’ll definitely look through Weasel’s posts again once I have time. I agree with others that the Albatross lynch is too convenient. The evidence around it looks carefully arranged to me, and again, when I have time, I will examine those pushing the lynch. For now, I’d like to encourage @Amethyst Scorpion to respond to some of the comments made about him in thread, as I’d like to see more from him to get a stronger read. His withdrawal after others made negative commentary on him looks fishy to me, so I’d like him to make another post. I’ll be back on in an hour or two.
  22. Ivory Dragonfly
    I’m going to remove my vote from Indigo Weasel for now. Not because I suspect him any less, but because I want to broaden my view of the lynch a bit more. Other suspects exist, and I don’t want a bandwagon before we have some more discussion about other people. Unfortunately, I’m also pressed for time, so I’ll have to wait until this afternoon to get some analysis up. I’ll just say that my main suspicions other than Weasel are Axolotl and Kangaroo, somewhat. Hope lynch discussion develops, as usual, and I’ll be back around 6 PM EST.
  23. Ivory Dragonfly
    Alright, I suppose this was kind of long overdue. I’ve led or participated in bandwagons on 3 villagers, so I was kind of expecting to get accused ever since I led the Tuatara lynch. So, going over Scorpion’s points: Voting patterns: My voting is driven mainly by the assumption that I won’t get home from school/ track in time before rollover. So, any weekday vote I make has to be done 12 hours in advance. Which is highly inconvenient, but also not something that I can avoid. This explains my vote on Heron, and to some extent my vote on Meerkat. The other reason I moved my vote from Ostrich to Meerkat was that I saw that Ostrich wasn’t getting lynched, so I wanted my vote to count for something. Flamingo and Albatross were bad choices, I had a bad gut read on Meerkat, so I took a chance. Didn’t work out, of course, but nothing I could do about that. The Dingo vote was due to me being very confused D1, having been essentially dropped into the middle of an SE game. I was slightly intimidated, and definitely naïve with my opinions, so my vote swapped around a lot as I changed my stance on things. It settled on Dingo for the reasons I outlined when I gave my vote. I tunneled on Tuatara, I’ll admit, but none of the other lynch candidates were better. The only other one in that group I might have lynched would have been Vulture, but I have a slight village read on her. Tuatara seemed the most evil of the bunch, so my vote was on him. I never actually meant to lynch him, my initial vote being more of a poke vote than anything else, but after his posts did nothing to really clear him, I began suspecting him more and more. The Way You’ve Presented Your Suspicions: This line manages to be both ominous-sounding and vague simultaneously. I can’t really offer a defense, as I’m not entirely sure what the accusation is, but the way I look for suspicious activity is by picking a few people and reading back through their earlier comments to see if anything jumps out at me as suspect. If my writing comes off as stream of consciousness because of this, that’s because it is most of the time. (Though I do try to give some general structure to my really long posts). Activity Level: I don’t see this as a bad thing. I really don’t see it as evidence against me, either. If everyone participated more, I think highly active players like me wouldn’t be as noticeable. Simultaneous Voting on Weasel: I was in the middle of writing up my suspicions of Weasel when Axolotl posted. While I understand that it looks fishy, it was pure coincidence. If it helps you feel any better, I don’t trust Axolotl at all, as I’ve said previously. So coming to the same conclusion on something when we’ve been sparring for so long would not be a good strategy if we were both Elims. And Axolotl’s “voting system” radiates suspicion to me. My vote stays on Weasel for now, but I’ll look at some other players to see if a better candidate pops out at me. We have lots of time as a village to discuss this lynch; let’s use it.
  24. Ivory Dragonfly
    Okay, in case anyone missed this: PMs are open!! While I feel Beagle would be disappointed that this didn’t happen sooner, it’s a great chance to tie up some loose ends in existing PMs. Emerald Falcon, I see you note one or two of my posts as being off. Can you please tell me which ones? I would like to give you my thoughts behind them, but I cannot if I don’t know which ones they are. Our Elims this game are good at blending into the crowd, so we’ll need some good lynch discussion to draw them out. So I’ll start it off with a vote on Indigo Weasel. They’ve been trying, and mostly succeeding, to escape public scrutiny. But the commentary they have offered looks suspicious. He voted Swan for suspecting Flamingo, after he had already suspected Flamingo himself. Then, he goes on to express suspicions of Beagle and Flamingo’s PM group anyway, all while staying on the activity fringe. And, ninja’d (somewhat) by Axolotl. Oh well. I’d really appreciate an explanation of this voting system, @Violet Axolotl.
  25. Ivory Dragonfly
    I see it the opposite way. What Elim would post something like that? It’s basically a dead giveaway. Except maybe they know that, and really are an Elim trying to easily get trusted. Or they’re a villager pulling a weird double bluff trying to get trusted by the rest of the village. Or... yeah, this is probably the best example of a NAI post, because you literally can’t tell anything about the person without going into IKYK territory. The same kinds of posts were made by Gecko in the first cycle, but he flipped villager. So “suspicious” posts like these don’t tell us much. Even if I thought they did earlier. I have a strange feeling that I might die tonight, and if I do, it’s been a great game. I urge all villagers to be active tomorrow if I’m dead, and to get a lot of candidates up for lynch. Let’s hit an Elim this time.
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