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Mauve Crocodile

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  1. Mauve Crocodile
    Well, it only looks bad if you assume I knew Rhino had an extra life in the first place. I also did say that we should try and get a couple of Dustbringers, because of this possibility and because of Windrunners. I'll also note that if we had known Rhino was an Elsecaller, we would have been best off just ignoring him for the cycle, since there are rather low odds (3/64) of rolling Elsecaller a second time before getting some other role. I also rolled Dustbringer this cycle, which is what prompted that comment in the thread.
  2. Mauve Crocodile
    Hold on. If we are going to assume that the elims potential to counter a kill on Rhino outweighs re-purposing today lynch, then it is also a Bad Idea to reveal who our night roles are going to target. That makes it rather simple for an elim Lightweaver to obfuscate a scan, or a Windrunner to block our kill. This comment is specifically directed toward Albatross and Falcon.
  3. Mauve Crocodile
    Hmm. Would it be worthwhile to Dustify Rhino and use the lynch on someone else? We’d run the risk of the kill getting blocked, but we probably have a couple of dustbringers at least, who could team up to overcome protection.
  4. Mauve Crocodile
    Wow, the AG curse might finally be broken this game! Hopefully I can contribute something along the way. My read on Iguana during D1 is pretty solid village. He didn't just pop on at the end of the cycle to break the tie, but was engaged in lynch discussion for several posts all in a short time frame. That seems more like village behavior to me. On the topic of everyone being a worldhopper, I'm hesitant to think that would be the case, due to balance issues. I guess the number of elims kills should be a tell for this, at least for them; if they get a second kill in every second or third night (for 4 or 3 remaining players, respectively), then they probably are all worldhoppers. I'd guess that Toucan is also village. I don't see why the elims would bother using vote manipulation in a E/E vote. But I'm less certain of this than of Iguana. @Magenta Albatross Is there a reason you chose to move Tuatara's vote? You caused a significant vote swing, which you could have lessened by moving some other vote. This actually seems to be the most suspicious thing during D1 to me, so I'll vote on Albatross for now. I'll try to work on some RP to post tomorrow. I've got an idea for my character and his probably death (or unlikely victory).
  5. Mauve Crocodile
    Just thought I'd mention that this tally is missing my vote for Flamingo.
  6. Mauve Crocodile
    Sernes walked the dead halls of Urithiru, scouting for Dalinar Kholin. The system of tunnels down here was quite remarkable, and the Highprince wanted to know what he had to work with in the coming days. He took one turn, then another, recording each intersection on his ledger. As Sernes made a left turn, he did a double take toward the other passage. There had been... eyes, in the darkness, he was sure of it. As he held his spheres aloft, however, there was no sign of anyone save himself in the tunnel. Sernes shook his head. Anyone who spent too long in the darkness would start seeing things that weren't there. He returned to his scouting, but marked the intersection with an "X", just in case. Back in the mess hall, Sernes kept to himself. The news of Odium's allies infiltrating the Knights, combined with the strange feeling of being watched at that intersection, hadn't left him in the mood for discussion. Some of the other scouts were discussing their discoveries, and tried multiple times to draw Sernes into the discussion. Each time he gave a noncommittal grunt, then returned to his food. He did notice, however, that nobody mentioned seeing eyes in the darkness. If the other scouts were involved with Odium, then why bother reporting anything suspicious? He resolved to mention that to Dalinar, in particular, Onyx Flamingo/Kir, who had seemed especially uncaring during the meal. If anyone wants to vote for me, I'm fine with you using my RP name, Sernes, if that's easier to type. Until I hear preferences from other players, I'll vote like I did above.
  7. Mauve Crocodile
    Hmmm... OK. Albatross. Out of everyone, the people I'm most suspicious of are Swan and Mouse. Mouse is a gut read, and they've been pretty hyperfocused on vote manipulations (admittedly, there hasn't been that much else to talk about so far, which is pretty frustrating) - I could imagine that kind of focus being an Eliminator trying to keep track of the threat of vote manipulations, which could make a big difference with the number of votes being as narrow as it is. Swan seems to be claiming Rememberer, which makes me suspicious - if there were 2 Rememberers, I think it would be more likely to have one villager and one Elim Rememberer than 2 Village Rememberers, though that probably depends slightly on what the art does, if it does anything at all, which seems to still be a mystery. Unfortunately, neither of them have a vote on them already, and I'd prefer not to die this cycle... But I don't think Falcon or Dragonfly are the most suspicious right now... Coral Swan. I trust my guesses based on role distributions more than my gut reads based on what's been posted in the thread.
  8. Mauve Crocodile
    I was thinking along similar lines to Mouse, actually - with my vote being soothed off, it casts suspicion on you as though the Elims were trying to save your life - which means that we might try to lynch you (a villager, in this scenario) rather than an Eliminator this round. Or, it might be a double bluff, and you actually are an Eliminator - this quickly becomes an IKYK situation. I still think of you as neutral - I have a bad gut read on you from your posts, but the way votes have been shaping up on you make me lean village, so they cancel out. Other things that sound like a way of raising suspicion on someone: My vote being consistently Soothed, which I certainly wouldn't do voluntarily and am somewhat peeved by. Don't know if that's an Elim thing - 4 Elims with vote manipulation sounds like a lot, so it's probably either 4 Elims and a Villager who's tunnelling on me, or 3 Elims with vote manipulations. I don't understand how me deliberately Soothing my own vote could possibly help me as an Eliminator. If I wanted Falcon dead in this scenario, it would probably have been less suspicious - and far less circuitous - to have left my vote on and been done with it. @Magenta Albatross has been online recently, but is lurking - I'm tired, so I don't have the energy to come up with a proper candidate right now, so I'll put a pokevote on them for now. I'll try and do some proper analysis later this cycle. Magenta Albatross
  9. Mauve Crocodile
    Hmmm... Sorry for briefly going inactive, RL stuff keeps getting in the way. Response to Tuatara: First, how do you know that it was Swan who had their vote manipulated and not Penguin Cycle 1? And what advantage would Swan or I (or Penguin) hope to gain as an Elim by manipulating our own votes? Since the one village role we currently know has vote manip powers, then it wouldn't be a WGG-like move since anyone could have submitted the action. The only other reason is if Swan were trying to save elim teammate Scorpion but didn't want to be seen retracting their vote, but that doesn't work either since we know Scorpion is village now. Secondly, I stand by what I said about it being highly unlikely that the Elims deliberately performed that vote manip with the intention of a random lynch, simply because of how chaotic it would be. Especially now we know Scorpion is village, why risk a vote landing on a teammate, who statistical probability says is almost certainly somewhere in that list, when you can lynch a guaranteed villager? OK, so the basis for this cycle's votes are that the Scorpion voters might have been trying to save one of Falcon or Penguin. If that's the case, we need to look at the votes after Falcon or Penguin become lynch candidates. In that case... when it's Scorpion and Falcon tied on 2 votes, when Penguin puts Scorpion in the lead with 3 votes and Albatross cements it with 4. It strikes me as highly unlikely that both Penguin and Falcon are elims, and that Penguin was trying to save Falcon last cycle. The main reason being, the Elims would have put forward another lynch candidate this cycle if that were the case. As such, Penguin's vote is NAI. Albatross' vote could be read as suspicious, since with vote manipulation Falcon could still be in danger of the lynch, but a gut read says that's not likely. The Penguin lynch didn't emerge until the very end of last cycle, though, so that doesn't hold up as an argument. Since there's not time now for a new lynch, I guess I'll vote for Emerald Falcon as the more likely of the two. If I were able to start a new lynch, though, I'd probably go for a candidate like Azure Mouse, who I have a bad gut read on, and who both Indigo Weasel and the vote manipulator also seemed to find suspicious (assuming they're not the same person).
  10. Mauve Crocodile
    damnation. I had a good PM going with Vulture, I'm sad to see him go so soon. We mostly just chatted, but Vulture mentioned that he had a piece of Art - it was useless to him, and he couldn't do anything with it, but we both agreed that it probably has something to do with someone's wincon, most likely the Forgers. @Elandera, I don't suppose that now the Head Arbiter role has been revealed, we can know what it does? Vulture never said specifically, but if it's not revealed, I could take a couple wild guesses based on our PM. Wasting this cycle lynching an inactive now we have information to work off of seems pointless to me, so Emerald Falcon. A few hours before rollover, there were two votes on Mint Heron, making them one of the leading candidates for the lynch. By rollover, they'd removed their vote and I'd had mine Soothed off, leading to them being safe from the random lynch. I could see a Mint Heron, Emerald Falcon team - Falcon tosses an early poke vote on Heron as a distancing tactic, and later removes after I vote on them to try and prevent a bandwagon on Heron. I don't think the Soothing off Scorpion was the Elim's doing at this stage, though I can't rule it out for certain.
  11. Mauve Crocodile
    They're nearly all votes on inactives who haven't come online at this stage - the theory is it discourages people trying to hide by not posting. That said, I'll probably move my vote before rollover because inactive votes are rarely useful in providing information. As for an independent MaiPon faction, that's definitely possible. I'm think it's more likely that there's an independent Neutral or two at this stage, however, simply because I don't think there's enough players for an entire hidden faction.
  12. Mauve Crocodile
    I was one of the people to ask those questions, and can confirm the Glory Faction knows who the other Glory Faction members are. Indigo Weasel, Mint Heron.
  13. Mauve Crocodile
    If it were a normal game, that would be the case. Dragonfly seems to be suggesting that the game might be closer to a faction game, where you have roughly equal groups who try to outplan one another (MR5 would be a good example of this). I think it's more likely that this game is village-wolf - if it were a faction game, there'd likely be more than 2 published teams in the rules, which would raise the possibility of factions making deals with one another against a common enemy. I've sent a couple questions to the GM to see if I can settle that question one way or the other.
  14. Mauve Crocodile
    There is almost certainly at least one neutral role in the game - the Forger is likely neutral, given that what they do is illegal in the source material. There may be more beyond that, as well. If Indigo Weasel comes online soon, I'd like to hear from them.
  15. Mauve Crocodile
    chartruese pengu
  16. Mauve Crocodile
    Wow, Rip Dingo. So based on the write up, I’m going to assume we have at least 2 guns, which is interesting, but makes sense. I’d also guess that because they hit the same person they are likely not on the same team, because it wouldn’t make sense for teammates to double tap, unless there is some kind of double life role.
  17. Mauve Crocodile
    Taupe Gecko
  18. Mauve Crocodile
    Ivory Dragonfly
  19. Mauve Crocodile
    He had control of the body. He was running. Running fast. The street was closing in. Getting narrower. Cars pursued behind. Red and blue against his back. Sirens wailed. He’d been stupid. Didn’t have enough time. They had seen him. Their eyes had been on his back. He needed a weapon. They couldn’t switch fast. He could be faster. To the left. An alley, too small for their cars. A bit of time. The body was tired, exhausted. It would have to do. He continued down the alley, pushing body hard. The squeals of tires behind him. Car doors slammed. Yells erupted. They were nearly upon him. The body was giving out. Grabbing it had been a mistake. The alley dead ended. He pressed up against the wall, fingers scrabbling to find holds in the bricks. The footsteps behind stopped. He found purchaed, climbed up a step. A gunshot rang out and the body hit the ground. Another shot followed it. The officer went up to the body, checked its vitals. “He’s down, we got him.” He said to the figure behind him. “Wonderful, add it to the tally. Let’s go back the HQ to get our new orders.” They both left just as quickly as they had arrived. From the shadows a beggar covered in rags, practically invisible in the darkness that covered him, let out a grin.
  20. Mauve Crocodile
    *facepalms*
  21. Mauve Crocodile
    So is making a pm an action?
  22. Mauve Crocodile
    The votes are currently 7 to 4. Weasels faction could tie it up of swing the lynch onto Mouse if they wish. We could do with a couple more votes.
  23. Mauve Crocodile
    Weasel. I find it interesting that you didn't deny Mouse being protected so it's very likely they are so lynching them is a waste.
  24. Mauve Crocodile
    I don't know that side of it. I was just told that my faction was to try and get a lynch going on Lion. It could've been to keep the ID of the new Odium a secret but that's just a guess. Don't get me wrong, that has been talked about and thought of but if we were to do that then all it would do is get us lynched again but we would be without Odium to use as a possible bargaining chip. And yes, it's also been thought about giving a fake target and just saying Odium was Shattered which brings me to the next point. There is the chance that it won't be publicly announced that Odium is Shattered should Dominion agree. Joe PAFO'ed me when I asked "if a Player with a Shard survives it being Shattered, is it revealed?".
  25. Mauve Crocodile
    Then can you ask your possible Dominion contact if their faction is willing to Redirect Odium to itself?
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