Opal Lion

Hi all, Suggest that people vote more, write more and put in more RP, and generally obscure things better. I did some quick checks on a hunch and probably because I'm gonna enjoy grouching at Araris about this but: Recall that Warform and Stormform must vote every cycle: of all the people who voted today, we have moderate reason to reduce this to a pool of six players. Recall that Scholarform must create a post of > 150 words each Day: of all the people who posted D2, we have moderate reason to reduce this to a pool of six players as well. I expect the Elim kill to potentially target this pool, especially where it does not overlap with the Warform pool. Recall that Artform must create a RP post of > 100 words each Cycle: of all the people who have posted so far, we have a three player pool of Artform candidates, some of which overlaps with the Warform and Scholarform pools, meaning that the ability to work out any candidate within the pools helps us - and the Elims - narrow down who is in which form. I hesitated to bring this up because I feel like it could be detrimental, but I am ultimately using open source information here. Anything I know, the Elim team can work out for themselves with a little elbow grease and the unholy powers of Google Sheets. Even worse, they know which of their own are in Stormform, and if any of their players are in this pool, then they can narrow it down even further. This is why I was eh about roleclaiming talk on D1; it's really hard for players to keep this up consistently across the game, and I learned the hard way in LG7 that seemingly-innocuous reveals can come back to bite you in the pula later on. In this game, because of form restrictions, a lot of what we do oozes information. But I think this is worth flagging because if we want to provide cover for our Scholars especially, assuming these did go to Villagers (which is an assumption), then we all have to remember to do our bit. Kolo? Thank you for contracting with Lion 2.0 pinch-hitting services! Please rate our performance on the app~

Lion 2.0 pinch-hitting services starting up. Thank you for subscribing to Lion 2.0! Press <SELECT> if you wish to receive customised messages! Today have a nice day! Thoughts and reads/issues from past cycle: Why would that be strange? A well-discussed lynch is always best for the Village; the worst would be a poorly-discussed no lynch. I feel like it should be unsurprising that a Villager might decide having a definitive lynch result rather than us needing to repeat everything tomorrow again was better, but also took the chance he could save his own life and go after someone else he suspected/preferred dead more. I'm having more difficulty making sense of this with Ross's gambit on ties as I agree with Flamingo, Dragonfly, Heron and - I suppose, Ross's late post - ties benefit no one, but also not the Village. I'm currently reading it as an attempt to stir discussion or to see if anyone would call him out. Claiming that only Elims want ties and implying by extension that anyone who broke this tie would be Evil is a harsh step. Don't disagree with this. That being said, I do get nervous when say, there's eight hours in the cycle left or so. I am usually concerned as it feels like those inhabiting the American timezone get on in the morning and then we have a last minute chaotic rush. But I ultimately agree with a stance Dragonfly has previously articulated - ties in the middle of the cycle are okay, ties at the end, no, so yeah I geddit. Current State of Reads: Also noting that I'm grateful our illustrious GM is taking a harder line on inactivity. Without the ability to flush lurkers out with a Village vigkill, lynching inactives tends to be a losing proposition for the Village (cf. the failure of the Contribution Crusade), which also makes it a rather uphill task. Thanks Steel! So, on the one hand, I think everyone should vote. Reasons are obvious, and making it difficult to guess who is in warform is a bonus. But I just wanted to highlight that Stormform elims, too, must vote every day turn. I don't think something like this should be the basis for suspicion but I do think it's something to keep in mind. Loss of forms is last on Day OoA so both warforms and Elim Stormforms would absolutely vote - losing warform means losing your passive life, whereas Stormform is only a Nightly roleblock (Steel has said Day actions are by default not roleblockable by Stormform unless the text says so - I actually don't see any such text in the rules so @Steeldancer, possible to confirm no Day actions are roleblockable by Stormform, or did I miss something?) - putting on Stormform at Night and then losing it because you didn't vote in the day wastes your night action. I feel like once we're in mid-to-late game, and gotten a better sense of the Elim team's disposition and strategic profile, it'll be easier to use this information. P.S. Ross, if you're reading this - strong Drake vibes :eyes: Thank you for subscribing to Lion 2.0 pinch-hitting services! Please rate our service on the app~ Edited to add: Interesting actually that no nimbleform gemstones disappeared D1. IMO it does point a little to the strategic priorities of the Elim team. Edited to add #2: Looked at the player list several times and still forgot Emerald Falcon. I'd put them under Null- for the time being.

Wh- smh smh I could probably use the time to reset tbh gonna take a backseat for this turn too and come back later tbh

Double-posting because I don't really want to blend this into the RP and other posts, but I'd actually like people to not do that. This was said in deep anger and frustration, and while the circumstances explain my reaction, it doesn't excuse it. I don't want to be calling for targeted harrassment of another player, and I unreservedly apologise to @Amber Vulture for having done exactly that.

Dullform. Atticus [OOC: Lion] didn't mind it. Not the way the others did. Hard to think. Hard to dream. Hard to hurt. He'd wanted warform. Maybe it was the dark dreams, dreams of death and killing. Dreams of a king with a powerful bow in his hands. Dreams of an assassin run through by a Shardblade. Atticus didn't feel safe. Maybe that was it. And now two of them were dead. One in the rush for gemstones. The other likely murdered. Unsafe. They'd fled from the ancestors, the Fused, the ones who told them what to do. What to think. But it seemed the enemy had followed them. Even here. How much longer could they keep running?LAtticus didn't know. But he didn't know how to do anything else. Couldn't keep the voidbringers at bay. It was difficult not to take this whole thing rather personally. Find them or die. Dullform made thinking hard. But the thought was simple. Find. Or die. There was no other alternative. He scrawled the letters on the cave walls. It was difficult, trying to work them out. Incising them one by one. The one they sometimes called the Vulture had asked. Last night, maybe. Atticus didn't know. Time blurred in his head sometimes. Between dreams. Between death and waking. He'd asked what happened if Atticus didn't know what the letters meant. Not anymore. "Then kill me," Atticus had said, and meant it. He hoped it wouldn't come to that. [OOC: Yeah, I've come out and said it.]

To be fair, if I am who I have been implying I am (with the subtlety of a mating elephant), I have a history of self-voting, though that has been as a Villager out of necessity. I will say I am genuinely annoyed, and I apologise and regret it came out this way. I do not lie when I say I am aware I have a temper (LG68, AG7) and have been working on it. I thought I had a very good streak until this game happened. I can't blue text this next bit, as much as I feel it would help if I did so, because it is a meta comment rather than a comment on RL. I have a few lines I don't cross as an SE player. I don't play against my wincon. Arguably, giving up and just self-voting and going with the flow when the lynch comes for me is playing against wincon but I don't consider it significantly so. Sometimes, if getting rid of me is what it takes for the Village to focus and gives them data around the flip, so be it. I do not actively seek out conversion, and always act to sabotage any future converted self in conversion games - I consider this part of playing to my current wincon. A player mentioned a distinction between honest manipulation and emotional manipulation. I'm not really sure how to talk about that. Perhaps I'll phrase it this way. I'm not a victory at all costs guy either. I don't ever think it's ideal to explode or lose one's temper in the thread. This has happened in previous SE games and will likely continue to happen. I regret and continue to work on controlling my temper, but I've been far from the only player to have done so when my berserk button gets pushed. I think that is one issue on its own. I think that deliberately harnessing such outbursts to gambit others into pulling away is an unacceptable strategy. The community is only able to function insofar as we can trust the signals when other players are having fun and when they are genuinely pissed. Deception on this front is of necessity a scorched earth tactic as it undercuts this environment of trust. Players do not like being made fools of for basic human decency, kindness, and compassion, and reasonably so. The only foreseeable result is a drift towards requiring bluetext for such interactions - in other words, a default attitude of suspicion and a drift away from this basic decency. In short, making a tactic out of genuine emotional outbursts only cuts at the game and rots the community. It wins a personal or team victory at the cost of all. This is never a cost I am willing to accept, and any Elim teammate on any Evil team I am on attempting such a gambit will find themselves called out in short order, and dead to me. I don't think we should mess around with such things. This is another red line for me. I think it's acceptable to sew chaos or FUD as an Elim facing a lynch or pressure. (I will say that one vote was hardly a lynch at this point given Scorp was leading, so there is no reason for an Elim to draw this much attention by fighting a single vote.) I think it's acceptable to manipulate other players' trust and the rapport you build with them through game interactions. I do not think it is acceptable to utilise your friendships with other players or to abuse the basic decency of other players in order to score a win and to save yourself for the time being. Using your friendships is in fact against the rules, but I'm referring to a more subtle idea of use here - the sort where you know what your friend's buttons are, and how to push the exact ones that will get them to back off. I don't think that's ethically acceptable. You can't be certain I wasn't saying it as a tactic, as you point out, but nevertheless, these are my thoughts on what players should and should not do. It's only as good as my word, but this is not something I consider conscionable to ever do in an SE game. You're fine, don't worry about it. I was referring to a previous Mint Heron, rather than to you you, except for where Vulture zeroed in on you. The context of my annoyance when it came to Vulture zeroing in on you has always been because of that Mint Heron. You're just the unfortunate current occupant of the title I suppose. The thing is, I'm not actually convinced Vulture is Evil. If I'm right about who Vulture is, then Vulture has a tendency to tunnel on me. It does feed into my frustration with the situation, but it also means I don't especially find that indicative. Vulture is one of my current light Village reads - lighter than Dragonfly, and revisable, but still light Village. I feel as though trying to solicit a train on me with that degree of tunnel is a tough ask for an Elim, especially given he has prominently put himself as campaigning for my being Evil, and would thus immediately be jumped on at my flip. (And if you - general you - still think I'd flip Evil, then all the more this is no reason to think Vulture Evil! That was a rather aggressive and committed tunnel that has been going on for a bit now off-thread. It's a bit too much even for extreme distancing, in my view.) Vulture also had better options, like pressuring me over being one of the Eiwlil voters. The fact he didn't and fixated over the arguments he did instead just seems suboptimal when he could've made a vote-based argument and appeared more like a hardworking Villager even though I'd flip Village. That might've solicited him support from players like Scorp who have publicly said that they think at least one Swan voter is Elim. Basically, this reads more like a Villager tunnel to me because there are better ways for Evil Vulture to play this Turn, and to even just play suspicions of me in general. To Mavset-im: Having said all of that, I'd appreciate if you and your team just went for a clean kill if/when you go for me. I can't really control this obviously, but I don't need to spend time undoing the damage you do after all this discussion about meta and acceptable and unacceptable player behaviour. Go steal someone else's body. In the greatest of ironies, I'm going to drop a temporary vote on Albatross. Sorry, Ross. I'm a bit curious about the bit where you found Swan too chaotic.

Sure, I'll claim it to the thread now, then. I went for warform, didn't get it. @Charcoal Hyena This is part of the basis for why I find it believable that the write-up is correct about the rush for warform and scholarform. Moreover, I preferred a group PM despite the risks of getting an Elim because I think it's good to be able to say "As of this Turn they were still talking in PMs" and to just have a baseline against which to compare. The issue here, Vulture, is you are making a plausibility judgement when you don't even have two basic pieces of information. You don't know how many people went for warform and scholarform, only that 4 mateform and 1 artform gem vanished. There are nineteen players and it is entirely possible that all fourteen (well, thirteen minus Mavset-im) went for warform and scholarform. You don't know whether the Elims went all-in on those either, or tried to go for other gems or even their own. That's an assumption you're making. You also don't know the base rate at which Villagers and Elims get their gems - we know Elims get a reduced rate but not how significant this is. Ultimately, it's possible you're basing your entire argument here off a 5% difference in probability. That's a drop in the ocean. You simply have no information about that rate, and neither do I. This isn't a statistical argument, this is just you saying "I don't find it plausible." In other words, you're appealing to your individual sense of what is likely and what isn't and using it as one point to try to sell a lynch on. If our individual plausibility judgements were a good guide to actual statistical likelihood in the absence of further information about the probabilities in play, then people who buy lottery tickets thinking they'll win the lottery are correct in thinking they will actually win the lottery. I've mentioned several times that I generally start with a weak default distrust/paranoid suspicion of most players. I fail to find it surprising that using Burnt's RNG exclusion method should get me more talkative players because those are the ones more likely - than those who have said nothing at all - to give me reason to override the paranoid bad feelings I have about them. Nice try. "I find it convenient" is also the language of plausibility coming out again - in other words, this is a plausibility judgement, or "I don't find this likely", which is down again to your personal biases and preconceptions, which do not an argument make. Pre-emptive explanations could be a tell, or it could just be me stating a fact I hardly find controversial - that on D1, without reasons to think anyone Village, I just shrugged and let RNGesus take the wheel and just ruled out anyone my gut hated. This is based off the assumption the Elim team would favour a control kill. This used to be the dominant Evil meta back in the heydays when I played SE regularly. By now, we've seen Elim teams that go for low info kills rather than control kills. In fact, the argument that active players need cover is kind of weird, because it implicates every active player in the suspect pool, rather than just me. Claiming that it is inherently strange that the Elim team isn't playing how you expected them to isn't an argument when the meta has been different for a while now. I'm just going to come out and say it - Archer, just because your team picked a control kill in QF54 doesn't mean that most Elim teams necessarily play that way these days. The meta has moved on and you should too And since it is not an extraordinary move for an Elim team, it's not a fact that cries out for explanation and thus is not itself something that is a persuasive argument. Wait a minute, so let me get this straight. I'm defensive for getting pissed about someone aggressively telling me I'm lying about being me? Wow, someone stop the presses! Heron's writing style matching mine in the last AG is a really bad reason to think Heron me. You're looking at the fact they use RP style and that square bracket OOC marker, declaring them me, and calling it a day. That's really superficial reasoning considering: A. you've played less than five games with me, B. you somehow insist on using Azure Mouse as the barometer than say, my behaviour in LG73 or LG78, or even my much longer gameplay history which is just plain weird. My reasons don't seem inherently plausible to you because you strongly deny I'm Kas. But on the assumption I'm Kas, why wouldn't I be defensive? Being impersonated by Mint Heron of all players is bound to tick me off and make me mad enough to stop hiding my identity given that Mint Heron did exactly the same thing in AG4 and I'm still salty about it. Furthermore, considering you're Archer, the fact that I'm defensive in your eyes shouldn't be surprising. You've consistently tunneled on me in three of the four games I recall us playing together - AG7, where you tunneled on me for having 'too much information' and somehow working out you were Village and playing the same fecking PM game you did, LG78, where you tunneled on me for being 'ominous' when I was admittedly trolling the thread to try to survive C1 as Beedle, and now, this game. The only game in which you have not tunneled on me is LG73 and that's because I essentially sat out the first couple of cycles and refused to do anything, and then due to some votes on Elims, my Villager status had become uncontroversial. Given that history, I'm not really sure why it's so surprising I'd have that sort of strong ("Are we really doing this drek again?") reaction to it. I'm also just going to say this outright - I used to be a very aggressive player. (2014-2015, I think - I was basically no-prisoners.) I began to tone it down around LG15b for a position I called [MAXIFUN] which involved less aggression. Which might be why you take signs of aggression from me as being defensive. I don't play that aggressively anymore for many reasons including the fact it made games less fun for others but I will absolutely bite back if my temper flares, and you do have a very aggressive way of phrasing your thoughts, and you can clearly take aggression so I have no compunctions in punching back even when I probably shouldn't. Meta also took that as an Evil tell from me in MR4 - unfortunately for him, I was the confirmed Village role. Just as a reminder - I was ticked off enough in AG7 to decide you were Evil and to slap down a poison charge on you that would have killed you if I died. I was ticked off enough that I flatout told then-Dragonfly (Whimsy/Burnt) and then-Lion (Illwei/Prudence) that I didn't really care if you were Good or Evil, I was done with the game. You yourself claimed that I reacted so strongly to your deciding I was Evil on the basis of playing the PM game that it further reinforced your assumption I was Evil. This tells me two things: first, your tunnel is part of an ongoing pattern of behaviour when it comes to me, and second, that of all the players, if there's anyone who could piss me off enough to actually get aggressive, it's probably you, and that's not very surprising that things happened the way they did. For anyone who wants to know if the AG7 thing really happened - yeah, That Happened, and I talked to the then IM (Fifth) about it, who told me to bring it up in the thread. I was, as it turns out, also Village. Well, you're wrong. You have a history of attributing amateur mistakes to me, too. You should probably stop that. You made the same mistake in LG78 when you assumed I was enough of a fool to talk aggressively about PMs as a Postman. As it turned out, I was not in fact a Postman. I haven't made that mistake since the Elims worked out I was a Seeker in MR1 and for obvious reasons, I'm hardly going to make it again. This isn't AI. Moving on. I've always paid closer attention to the rules than I let on. I've usually been more blatant about it in the LG20 era with long lists of questions for the GM but I've since both chilled and asked in the PM instead and just don't mention it in thread. We've also had three pages of conversation about how much information to share by that point, and I judged that further exhortations to do x or y were moot. It was time we moved the hell on. And given Mavset-im is a conversion role and I actually hate conversion games (see: Alv taunting me about the Shadowblaze in LG73), it's unsurprising that I'd fixate on how to stop Mavset-im from wrecking Village trusts. Yes and no. It doesn't but I think it explains both why Vulture continues to fixate on me (history, who he is), and why I behave the way I do. We are, ultimately, the sum of our experiences and conditioned by them. And it may not be very well known but players of that era will remember that Kas has a notorious temper. I don't usually blow up but when I do, I go hard. And then I stop playing SE games for eons after that because I feel bad about getting angry. RIP Bard. Oh wait, I did blow up in thread at Devo in LG68. Well, there you go. Temper. It's a character flaw I continue to struggle with. Failing to reconsider your views in light of new evidence is a fool's move, regardless of what team you're on. I'm also extremely paranoid and unlike you, I do know I have a tendency to wrongly sus players for not playing the game how I would, and I continuously strive to check myself if I think I am in danger of doing that. Weird play or play I, by my personal subjective yardsticks consider weird, is not necessarily Evil play. Play I consider Evil is not necessarily Evil play. I wrongly lynched Orlok in LG12 and then Creccio in LG15b off that, and I thought I'd learned my lesson right up to the point I slapped down a poison charge on you in AG7. Yeah, lesson not really learned I guess. I mean, if you really want me to come out and say it: half of it is because imitating other players is exhausting, the other half of it is because I do what I do because my playstyle is the way it is because of formative SE experiences. I'm hardly going to say "Oh this is an AN I'm not going to mention that this is my gameplay attitude" and I'm happy to explain why my attitude is the way it is, as I always have in games and in PMs. Of necessity, this will appeal to the experiences I've had. A significant chunk of it will come down to you aggressively telling me I wasn't and Mint Heron (of all the bloody players!) was, to which my response is essentially "K, let's see how far I can go and still have you deny it." Projection, projection, projection. Or was that projection, gaslighting, and denial? If you'd like to reinterpret the accusation, be my guest. The accusation was that it was weird for a stab vote to move after I got a response to a joke. This is not what stab votes are designed to do and the entire accusation is based off what I would refer to in Kantian terms a category mistake. (P.S. Stop telling me that this is once again being too aggressive about being Kas - I have in fact actively pointed to the difference between deductive, inductive reasoning, and IBE and used standard argument forms in early aggressive Kas days, so you have no leg to stand on here, birdy. I've also actively talked about epistemology, about Bayesian conditionalisation, about degrees of confidence/degrees of belief/credences, so this really is par for the course.) I right justify the title; other than that, 17S has only one justification setting. Also, this then takes away the basis for your entire Mint Heron claim considering that Mint Heron hasn't done this at any point. I'll certainly say that! You've acknowledged these are all weak arguments, and this is either a Villager building an Azbantium grade tunnel or an Elim looking for a convenient target given the anti-Mavset tactics I've been employing. (By the way - of course those are performative. Awes did no less in LG6, a conversion game. The point isn't to prove ourselves Village, it's because we believe in playing to our current wincon, and this includes sabotaging any attempt to convert us. Alv also did the same in QF4 by arranging for a kill on himself when he expected conversion.) At this point, I'm simply going to refuse to engage with you further. I don't think it's productive, and I don't play SE games to get mad. I think being angry brings out the nasty, aggressive, no prisoners Kas from early SE days that I've gotten rid of for good reason, because it's unethical, and it makes me a person I don't like. I also play SE games to have fun, and to do my best to help my team while I'm at it. If this isn't fun, then I've broken retirement and put in time for no good reason. Scorpion. Lion When I flip Village, I don't care which of you does it, I want one of you to - for his next five posts - reply to Vulture/Archer with "He bloody told you so." I'll also aggressively shame-nun him after the player identities are revealed at the end of the game because I am, apparently, that petty.

Hard to fix quote on mobile but in essence, I nudged Dingo last Night. Said that since what he said was a major suspicion of you was actually a post from Ross, have his views shifted. Evidently not. Would link but it's just two pages long so not that hard to locate. On p2 of the thread.

Crocodile's gem, if they had one, would've returned to the Village stash. Not sure if we'd be told explicitly that it returned, but I'm guessing not. It's something to keep in mind, though I doubt it'd throw off the numbers substantially. Edit: Let's start this off. Of these, I'll go with Amethyst Scorpion first. Given your moderate credence on the Swan train, what's your view of the Tuatara train then?

Name me another player in the SE playerbase besides Illwei, relying on Chingles, who could use correct Singlish. I'll wait

Mat has expressed the opposite of your sentiments, so that's a no from me

Rhino trying very hard not to be Mat I see.

Properly speaking, yeah, and then it gets exciting when there are roleless involved since those receive absolute priority. But that shouldn't come into play until tomorrow.

Someone tell me when Kas has ever done aggressive analysis on C1 since after 2018. I'll wait Whether or not you think I'm 'softing' Kas, it's certainly perfectly on-brand. I'm going to chalk this one down to a personality issue: "I am like this, too bad." Yes, sort of, I think. Essentially I expect us to be jumping at discrepancies after this cycle, and on people who are mysteriously silent in PMs. That being said, I think it just means look for Mavset-im indicators, be open to revising our assumptions, and look for the other bunch of flunkies who've joined the party besides Mavset-im. Doesn't do to get too caught up staring at Mavset-im that we cut our own throats. As an aside, I remember what Gamma said about Padan Fain being a set of limited slaps that the Village knows is coming but not when - this is basically my view of Mavset-im as well. I did the re-reading of D1, and the current state of my thoughts are: -I'm hesitant to consider someone Evil on the basis of strategic disagreements since this was essentially me @ Archer last AG, and this has been me @ Araris since posterity to the extent I was actually floored when we agreed during LG73. That being said, I do find Tuatara's analysis suspect/just odd, and am leaning light blech on them. And the relatively late Swan train did save Tuatara from the chopping block. I'm not interested in having the info-kill fight again: I'm just going to say I think it's worth looking at why someone who was going to be dead was saved by a late train, and I think knowing whether it was v/v or v/e tells us something about likely Elim disposition, which is worth knowing. -Same for Scorpion, though this is gut - Scorpion's reaction to having people join on a RNG vote just read strangely performative to me. It's D1, some people are going to join on a RNG vote. That's just what happens. Calling attention to it in the way Scorpion did just seemed unnecessarily showboating. -Crocodile is staying fringe. I'm interested to hear more from Crocodile. Same for Beagle, who showed up to give some analysis, clearly paid attention to the thread, but not to vote. -I've yet to determine whether Dingo is running off D1 reasoning but their behaviour is odd to me, since a number of other players haven't bothered to provide reasoning for votes at various points in D1, myself included. -Mouse (urgh, so weird to say this.) I'm unfortunately gung-ho on Mouse as there's really nothing to stop the Elims from handing out a gemstone to Mouse and collecting a new teammate, especially if it's near a critical point. Ultimately, I'd rather go after actual suspicions but this is a case of "Eh, couldn't care less."

Limpeh tell you ah, dontch be rike TJ/Zelda, anyhowly think look at Frog also can. Cannot one. GM tell you already got item must use, please don't just eyepower fierce fierce, want to use then use, okay boh? [Eiwlil: You're welcome.] Wow this is harder than TJ's Brummie accent and I expect to go stark raving insane if I want to speak in a Singlish accent throughout this game. Anyway, now that I have fulfilled my obligation to troll Illwei: PSA: Please be reminded that like LG78 and Frogs, gemstones kind of have to be used by sending an order in If you have one and intend to take the form, please send in the order, holding on to the gemstone won't help, you'll stay dullform, and it might result in you instead losing it to Decayform Elims, going forwards. (If you use it N2, that's fine, but be aware!) You're welcome TJ, unless you're Evil, in which case, welp, guess that happened. I can neither confirm nor deny having signed up to an anon game strictly for the chance to potentially troll Illwei or TJ Edit: Alas, errors happen. Sadge. NWIFGIFYITAEEMBLKOAYDYRFHOTQENHMHLRDO.

I'm interested in your thoughts on Tuatara and the Tuatara train, especially since you believe with moderately high confidence that an Elim is part of the Coral train. I think that this should condition your credences. The issue I think is that distribution is probabilistic, and sometimes, RNGesus feels cute and then people with low probability (cf. Elims in this case) still get the gemstones. I don't feel the level of information from a reveal currently justifies doing so - we gain some sense of the probabilities involved but honestly there are just too many uncertainties for it to be informative. I just realised Steel has also tagged "mad dash for scholars and warriors" so I presume we can already work out with moderate credence that these was in fact the most sought-after gemstones anyway - it wasn't just a write-up thing. (I had to keep that in mind as a possibility as when I GM, I take creative liberties with the write-up and have to caution players not to read into it but I know that's not always the case.) Absolute priority only applies to those in dullform, which this cycle, should be everyone except Mavset-im, unless I'm misunderstanding the rules. But here's the ruling again for everyone's ease of reference: @Steeldancer, when you say absolute priority, here's a scenario: suppose a roleless Elim goes for a warform gem. Five Villagers - all with roles - also go for it. Rolelessness should override both numbers and alignment in this case - as long as there is a roleless person/pool, they are guaranteed to get the gem prior to anyone else? Edit: @Melon Dingo, also interested now if Rhino's response changes your suspicions - are they still your top sus? What about Albatross since that's the post that triggered your suspicions? C'mon you lot, it's Night but there's no rule that says discussion can only be done in the Day. My view of Tuatara hasn't shifted all that much but I'll look at the Day thread again when I have some time.

If you're not a fan of stab votes, it's unsurprising you find my stab vote weird. Your response here also suggests you don't have a firm grasp of the distinction between stab votes and poke votes. Poke votes incentivise activity and therefore vanish the moment interaction happens. The weakness of poke votes is they incentivise a quick response but not necessarily one that is indicative. Stab votes are more sticky and designed to unsettle and place more psychological pressure on the target (and sometimes Elims do overreact to stab votes, especially those that make them a viable train.) Your expectation that my vote should have disappeared because Swan made a Monty Python joke like Wyrm did with me in MR1 is curious. I'm not interested in joking around—well, I am, but the point of my doubling up the vote on Swan was to turn it into a viable (if not the lead) train and to watch what the thread did and to actually be able to read Swan. Joking around with me doesn't really help me read you, as Wyrm proved. So why should I consider myself satisfied? I like watching how players respond to more vote options coming online, too. I think it's a useful way of provoking observable behaviour. As I've commented to Archer on a prior occasion, players can say whatever they like but votes give you more of a sense of their strategic priorities. I don't know if I'd have removed the vote had I been on near rollover but given that Swan dialled down on their Lord of Chaos act, I'd probably have considered going to someone else. This became a moot point because a bro of mine introduced me to a game and I got sidetracked trying to speedrun and missed rollover. Probably no reason to fight this much as there's really no call for much of a response, but I like meta discussion on playstyle and strategy, and I admit I don't understand why it's mysterious that someone who avowedly hates 'stab votes' finds one weird. Might as well say you dislike carrots and think they taste weird.

THE DAY BEFORE THE EXODUS Atticus ran. He always had. The nightmares haunted him. Dark dreams. Dreams of blood and ruin. Dreams of betrayal and death. He was not always him, in those dreams. Perhaps it was a desolation. He did not know. He knelt with a Shardblade in one of those dreams and blood was on his hands and he wept as though the world was ending, as though everything had gone terribly wrong, and he did not know how it could be made right again. He was never him, not always, not in the dark dreams, until he jolted awake and tried to attune to the Rhythm of Tranquility. But he could not find it, not with the fear shivering through him. Not with the darkness of the dreams clinging to him like clotted blood. And then Thane and Moirin spoke, in hushed whispers, of freedom. Of life beyond toiling for Odium. He almost attuned to the Rhythm of Hope. It was there in their words, in their cadence, so fragile you could miss it. So easily killed. Atticus didn't know if one such as he deserved hope. But he felt it blossom anyway, within the recesses of his gemheart. A fragile, silly thing, hope. It made you do stupid things, like abandon nimbleform for dullform, casting yourself almost, almost beyond hearing of the Rhythms. Dullform where even thinking was hard. In truth, Atticus went because he was running, because he never stopped. Because in those dark dreams he knelt over a dead king with blood on his hands and wondered where exactly the world had shattered, where things had fallen apart. Because in dullform, the dreams were distant, and had no hold on him. Atticus ran. He always had. He always would. RP requirement done, don't make me shave my head and eyebrows, thanks!

I mean, I did but I'm recently questioning my existence, which is a very Lion thing to do. As you can see, I'm licking the wall in my pfp so I guess I'm kinda out of it. NWIFGIFYITAEEMBLKOAYDYRFHMTQENHMHLRDO

Write-ups are not meant to be indicative per se but it would not surprise me if there was a rush for Scholarform and Warform, which would imply there are a number of people who failed to collect a gem this time around. Edit: L The highstorm was approaching. Bad dreams. Atticus didn't want them. They followed him. So he told himself as he watched the sun go down, steadily ignoring, as best as he could, the squirming electric-violet fearspren coiling at his feet. One of them was dead.

Yes. Best hope Alv isn't playing. He and Meta were very good at the original SE riddle dead doc games. In theory I agree with the idea of a neck riddle and I've broached this idea with my repeat mention of warrant canaries across this day, in practice I think it is hard because a good answer is ideally only known by you, but then makes it hard to be verified by someone else which is why I'm more a fan of secret messages or codes—pending Steel's ruling—because I think the ability to make sense out of nonsense is a bit more robust than answering a riddle.

i- sadge, i don't need to justify my formatting choices to you ;-; Multi-quoting, hmm? Less extensively but I'm interested now. I guess I couldn't hide my identity forever, and especially not from you, Wyrm'alor ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Flamingo said something while I was typing, and the text editor ate this up like Lift so I guess I'll come in again. I actually don't think it will matter in the way Beagle and I have been talking about. Tactically, there's no reason for Mavset-im to claim Artform, or any other form - or to put it another way, having the Village think you are not Mavset-im but an elim in Artform isn't that much better! Claiming vil vanilla is a better situation than elim Artform. The main case in which Mavset-im's problem arises which is why I mentioned it to begin with is if a player who is known to have a role suddenly has inexplicably lost it. And as I've already pointed out, a shift in 'speech' patterns can be just as indicative, although the last time I remember speech pattern analysis catching someone was Tulir in MR2. Rhino boi, Beagle, and a few others have also mentioned - yes, suddenly not talking in PMs would also be a sign. LDullform. Hard to think. Hard to dream. Not that he was paranoid or anything like that. Bad dreams Atticus didn't want any more. When would they reach the end of their journey?

I think we agree on the overall strategic picture and disagree on the feasibility. Agreed that a Villager might not maintain Artform for long, but then again, given Villagers without forms are prioritised, I think it's safe to say people won't be formhopping early on. I disagree on "a high degree of confidence isn't great" - we're playing a mafia game that by design, does not have Seekers. I would take a high degree of confidence over low confidence any day, and look to where I had low confidence. Sure, it's fantastic to mechanically clear someone, but then if, as you point out, players can't be expected to maintain forms, then the very same reasoning cuts into your claim about Workform. The point is to go for a tiered system of confidence levels, rather than go "welp it's high confidence so whatever sadge ig ;-;" I can outright confirm that full-on codes and secret messages was not definitively outlawed. LG74 was a standard Tyrian game and when I asked the GM about the code rules for Tineyes, he specifically told me he'd consulted the committee and IM and had received a waiver, as well as the understanding it is meant to apply to working around games without PMs, i.e. restricted communication games, rather than Tineye messages. In fact, given I was a Tineye in that game and submitted a set of secret messages, I can definitely say it was legal In general, GM has quite a bit of say minus the Etiquette rules, so I will second the request to @Steeldancer and @Araris Valerian for their views on the matter.

Even without the elims, anyone in Scholarform could choose to research odious forms anyway. This would result in them creating free conversions and Steel confirmed this is meant to be a thematic choice inherent to the rules. I would consider such an act to be playing against wincon but as Mouse has shown, there are players who would bite depending on the circumstances. Interesting guess from Heron which I shall neither confirm nor deny though I must admit to being a little wroth at Heron of all players trying to guess me, considering what they're doing and the history of that anon account I'm divided on Tuatara. My general view at the point in time I stacked another vote on Swan was that I disagreed with Rhino on their being too evil to actually be evil but I have always believed that some level of such a play bottoms out in a IKYK to which the only appropriate response at this juncture is a LAFO. That being said, I am not comfortable with how the train has stabilised at this point in time. If I'm on nearer to rollover, I'll rethink my life and my choices again. Sure, but also how about you know, if you are a Tineye, you should be putting in authentication off the bat! That is a standard Tineye play. That way, if Mavset-im claims to be Tineye and can prove it by 'posting' but cannot explain or coherently point to any authentication used consistently across the cycles, then something is suspicious. If indeed, as you claim, an Elim Artform would cover for the Mavset-im to this extent, so be it! I'm happy forcing them to burn an action on rollover instead of taking the night kill - and I'm happy to take high degree of confirmation even if we can't get mechanically confirmed. Edit - to be clear, when I say authentication off the bat, I don't just mean "Blue is in my message so I was the Tineye since C2!" No. I mean something along the lines of a secret, which should ideally be hard to decipher or puzzle out if you weren't actually the Tineye. Past Tineyes have used codes and in Tyrian ruleset games, these have been allowed as a means for Tineye authentication. I don't know if this ruling stands in Steel's game, but that being said, Shiv cracked the vil code in LG6, so of course codes are not foolproof but by and large, a robust set of Tineye codes applied across cycles is a solid means of confirming they are who they say they are. @Coral Swan You said to tag you with any questions so I'm taking you up on it. What is your name, what is your quest, what is your favourite colour, and what is the airspeed of an unladen swallow?