Opal Lion

I'd say I intend to be on at rollover to stop a possible hammer but I'm just one person. You're also talking to the guy who participated in the three-way mess at the end of D4. Be afraid. Be very afraid. For the Elims to hammer, they'd almost certainly need one person on the Heron wagon, too. And if they have the other mediationform gem or if their scholar just popped one out...ngh. 1. To be fair, so is Heron. I feel the circumstances point at Village Beagle or Evil Warform Beagle, I just can't decide which, but strictly-speaking, nothing stops Heron from being warform either so I guess what I'm saying is just go with your best shot 2. We need to get the correct answer today, and not answering the question is not giving us the correct answer either >> Yeah. But also it's a good way of provoking indecision. God knows while my suspicion of Scorpion has climbed up again, if you ask me between Weasel and Scorpion, it's just a shrug from me. Yeah. That's the one that really nags at me because that would be extreme bussing. Not E/E/E/E seems to be the right answer but maybe not more than two Es in that group I guess. Maybe Mouse/Tuatara not E/E would be the better way to put it. It's twice Mouse has had no issues with a train going off on Tuatara. But the one thing that keeps striking me about Tuatara is that Ross was the decisive voteswing that lynch. Of course, maybe Ross made it so the Elims didn't need to intervene and they would've had to if not for Ross but here let me add some text so my shrug emoji isn't handless ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add: Doesn't work that way. Checked with Steel - Mediationform's double vote is a passive, and votes are not actions anyway so it can't be roleblocked. Mediationform doesn't make someone Village but it does make someone not Malibu. But since a significant amount of heat Flamingo attracted was for being the lead Malibu candidate, not being Malibu should drop Flamingo back in reads, more trust if Heron (current train as of time of typing anyway) flips Evil.

1. You do 2. We barely hit the 50% cycle mark bro. 3. I'm beginning to think that if you have high credences in the noisier players being Village, what other options do a peripheral/passive Elim team have? They could create a countertrain but that would reveal them instantly. The best play under those circumstances would be to seed multiple counterwagons and hope one takes off. You always want a high preponderance of Villagers on your countertrain or enough, though this late, it may not matter as much. Not saying this makes Heron automatically Elim but I wonder if given how this Elim team has been playing - what options do they really have? The largely consensus non-strong Village-read pool is: <Scorpion, Falcon, Mouse, Tuatara, Heron, Beagle, Weasel, Flamingo> Who among them could create an alternate train or argue strongly for Heron without appearing odd or to be behaving uncharacteristically? The strength of passive or under-the-radar play is that it's frithing hard to locate you. The problem is it gives you fewer options to control and redirect Village attention once found. You mentioned this earlier and I'm noticing vagueness about the Malibu kill. Malibu bodyhop is a free Elim kill only if we find them. Malibu bodyhop reduces Village count by 1 but keeps the Elim count constant. Of course we'd grinch them the next day anyway so I suspect they'll either do the quiet player thing, or simply leave Malibu bodyhop for a potential game-ender. Mouse was first on Tuatara, never moved. Weasel didn't vote. Edited to add: This has been what I've been asking all this while. If Heron and Beagle are both Evil, why is it that the main voteswingers were Vulture, myself, and Dragonfly? Why did the volatility of the cycle not draw more Elims to the votes? The only answer I can think of is that Beagle was warform and they were fine with letting Beagle absorb a hit if need be, especially with the votes that close. To me, that's expected behaviour. Why implicate yourself when you can let the Village cut each other's throats? I generally do not expect Elims to be packing the v/v trains because they have no stake in doing so. One lynch is as good as another if it isn't them. This is the one that doesn't make sense to me and I've been asking about. Distancing is a thing, isn't it? Devo, Araris, Eiwlil, Maili, Fifth and STINK extreme-bussed each other in LG74. We're not facing that team but I could see distancing and vote-splitting as a viable strategy for Elims to hide.

That's actually why I'm worried about Beagle. It's not a write-off: failed lynches that are closely-contested are often still informative but if we go for the potential warform Elim and fail, we're in trouble: 7/5 -> 6/5 -> only to find out welp, we were wrong the day before, game over. It's still a game over, it's just that we maybe bought ourselves one more Day to get it right, I suppose, but we won't have a flip to bank on, and if the Elim team goes low info kill, just hitting me or you or Dragonfly would guarantee a death and not give us that much more info than we really have to go on. If Flamingo is Village, that buys us a bit more space because of voting firepower unless Flamingo is offed at 6/5. To be fair, I guess Heron is a gamble too but given Heron was telling you and me they had a role that day, and presumably wanted to soft warform/scholarform, hell knows. @Amber Vulture Scorpion I think - I went back through the votes and noticed Heron nudged Scorpion D2. That stuck out a bit to me as a vote flexibility issue which isn't uniquely Village but tends to be more Elim-leaning if we're on D5 and the best you can do is still Tuatara (well, was Tuatara) and Scorpion. Edited to add: Not to put too much pressure on us but the ideal scenario has us lynching Malibu today. And candy and teddy bears for everyone! The moderately realistic ideal scenario has us lynching any Elim today, as long as they're dead.

Keep talking to your buddies. PM buddies don't let PM buddies get bodystolen. Stay in groups kids, it's too dangerous to go it alone!

This, plus the fact that this is anyway near the point in the game where the Elims might just use the Malibu kill. We do have an unaccounted for mateform gemstone (which Weasel claimed) - but while it's unlikely that there's a hidden mateform no one sounded off on, it's good to confirm that there was no mateform bodysnatch. This lets us properly read the Hyena kill result as indicating that Hyena is Village and Hyena did not get a gem D1 due to numbers and how Steel rolled for mateform previously. So it depends on whether you think Flamingo is Village or not. If you do, then no matter how kayana the 'Malibu took an artform gemstone D1' path is, that becomes the most tempting option. It's possible that Tuatara took the artform gem D1 and is now lying to cover for Malibu, but it doesn't significantly matter to me because that still points out that our Malibu has to be hiding in the <Mouse, Heron, Beagle> triad. And I feel like given the volatility in end-cycle voting last cycle, Beagle being Malibu is unlikely. Losing Malibu is not good for the Elim team - losing an unblockable kill is kayana, and there's nothing to stop Village trusts from stabilising after Malibu is gone, so the mere presence of Malibu is good for them. I can't imagine them being so chill about losing Malibu, of all roles, though weirder things have happened, so maybe low to moderate probability. Warform Elim is possible, but I really don't inherently see self-pres as suspicious. Forcing a tie to self-pres is a bold decision, but when I tracked the votes, Beagle's shift wouldn't cause a tie, just kill Hyena and save himself. This changes if Heron is Evil. Anyway, it's been a busy OT weekend. I hope to get some time to redo the vote analysis by building in Hyena's and Dingo's alignments but we'll see if I'm granted that. Want to note that @Onyx Flamingo voted Heron for that exact same reasoning D4. My one issue with the analysis is that OG Mouse and Heron both voted Tuatara on D1: I'm just going to shamelessly copy my post from D4: "It's hard to be sure but we had a Swan-Dingo-Tuatara window at one juncture. Ross was the key swing, but Ross is Village. Specifically: These things happen: Swan goes onto Dingo, so we get: In response, Flamingo goes after Swan for voting alongside their key suspicion: And then Dragonfly goes on Dingo: So we have a 4-3-3 window where Tuatara is in the lead. I think the question is whether the other two trains were started to see what sticks and what saves Tuatara, but I find that a bit questionable because Swan was Village and I have high credence that Dragonfly is Village. And Ross, a known Villager, is the key vote, turning the Swan train into the final train: That's a decent amount of overt Villager activity, based off my existing credences (cf. Ross, Dragonfly, Swan, I exclude myself only because I know, GM PM issues.) We already knew there were scattered Elims, or at least a glance at the greens suggest Elims were scattered, but I think really lends to the sense the Elims either weren't especially worried, or overtly wrangling. Possible as well that high Village activity might have meant they didn't need to move in earnest. I don't know. Something to keep in mind as I move to the D2 data I suppose. So, one key question: who didn't vote that cycle? Won't rule out the possibility there is a crouching Elim, but spread out definitely seems right." We now know the Dingo train was a Village train, Swan was Village, and the general consensus is high credence that Swan and Dragonfly are Elim, so if we are narrowing down for Elim activity: I want to point out several things. Dingo was a leading train at one point and was a Village train. The Swan train was a Village train. As much as it is a tempting prospect, the window for a Tuatara LAFO has long come and gone but if the argument relies on Heron/Tuatara being E/E, it's weird that Heron was so chill with Tuatara being the leading train, requiring Ross to break the tie and go after Swan instead. I'm still not fond of the very self-conscious and defensive tone of Heron's post so my vote is remaining there for now. But suppose, for the sake of argument, that Heron is Elim. My question is: where are the Elims D1? Day One: I don't think this is of necessity correct; this just reflects my current distribution of credences. Flamingo and Tuatara are probably the most negotiable. I don't colour myself out of courtesy. That leaves me with a pool of the above and: <Tuatara, Scorpion, Falcon, Heron, Mouse, Weasel, Beagle> Well, let's crudely go on to the next few Days I suppose: Day Two: Tuatara comes up as an alternative, though Heron-driven. Movement is between Penguin and Ross, and we now know both trains are v/v. Strictly from the perspective of the votes, Heron comes off poorly as pulling off of a bad lynch. Stand by early!Lion's assessment of this. Interestingly, this points to two things IMO: Heron's suspicions are static. This isn't an Elim-only thing but Villagers trying to solve the game will often fluctuate more in who they suspect. I myself went from Flamingo Delenda Est to "I think Flamingo's Village though" just from Night Four to Day Five. I chilled on the Scorpion suspicion but they're climbing my radar again. Second, this is yet another cycle in which we see Heron go on Ross, get @ about why they haven't voted their actual suspicions, and then immediately drop off Ross and go right back to Tuatara. Non-voters: It's a v/v train so once again, our peripherals look bad. Unfortunately, we just don't get that much more out of this. Day Three: Feel like we almost certainly have an Elim on this one due to size, but that being said. Let's look at non-voters first: We now know we had three inactive/non-voting Villagers (at least.) Ouch. Inactivity or not, Beagle's voting patterns make them difficult to read so they're still not getting a Village read from me at this point. Day Four: Non-voters: If Heron is Evil, I'd relook at Mouse and Falcon again. Possible for contagion of suspicions among teammates. Mouse is in a sweet spot of contributing but static voting, so I'm not going to give them too strong a Village read at this juncture. Falcon also doesn't look good from the static voting perspective, but funny enough, I actually read them a bit more Village for it. It's so "IDEC" low-effort that I feel an Elim would actually want to appear like they're trying harder. ...Oh, bother. I'm going to have to do a new reads list at some point, aren't I? Beagle voting on Tuatara for not trying to do much is just a bit rich, I gotta say. Am I basically live-commenting as I try to fix this up? Apparently yes. Heron says they're fine with Tuatara in the lead and might move closer to rollover to secure the lynch. Rhino disagrees. Fire ensues. Tuatara...actually Tuatara's post on Beagle reads kind of retaliatory but also kind of low-effort, but not blatantly low-effort, and the tone is off to me. Thought I'd flag that. Tuatara sounds like they're shopping around for suspicions and eventually ends up on the two people who have aggroed them but not Falcon. And Lion immediately has never found a train he dislikes, or is on a secret mission to try to vote every player in the game at least once because he jumps right along onto Beagle. Sadge. ...And here we come to the Confusionstorm, the Evervote where it is rumoured that Vulture, Lion, and Dragonfly continue to vote in hell to this very day. Lion starts screaming. I feel you mate, I really do. Genuine question for those who suspect Beagle as Beagle's a light Elim/null minus for me at most. Beagle hasn't claimed but they're reading Evil Ash to me but I only played Evil Ash once and don't know his meta. Is this what you all are picking up on that I'm not?

With Flamingo on this one, emphasis Village. Steel clarified the wincon/losecon is predicated on parity with Elims and/or inability to resist. Due to no vigkills and ties meaning no lynches, we auto-lose at parity given NK or Malibu kill. The only exception is if we have enough voting firepower that the Elims can't actually tie the vote. I'd argue it's situational. I'd agree with this C1-C2 and haven't been exchanging claims through the game, but I think once we're very close to lylo, obsession with secrecy starts to hurt more than it helps. I was never a disciple of Meta but the one lesson I do take away from him is on keeping my suspicions fluid and I'm getting a strong frustrated Villager toneread off Flamingo. We haven't even hit the 12 hour mark so I really want to hear more from @Amethyst Scorpion, @Oxblood Beagle, and @Azure Mouse as well. My vote is remaining on Heron in the meanwhile.

Did a huge vote analysis post from D4, and the editor ate that, and I'm tired and on painkillers so I'll do it up some other time. I'm just going to do my main conclusions: There was a lot of end cycle volatility but I feel that the main suspects: Vulture, Dragonfly, and Lion are people I have varying degrees of Village reads on, so. I also think that Elims could not have managed to be this collectively chaotic so I guess not E/E/E anyway? I don't find self-pres intrinsically suspicious from Beagle - unless we're expecting Beagle to know or be able to follow the vote shifts, asking Beagle to ensure no tie ensues is a hard ask. I just don't find it to be intrinsically AI, period. The main trains were Tuatara-Hyena-Beagle though it became a Hyena-Beagle slugfest near the end. We know Hyena is a Villager; we don't know about Beagle but my view is that Beagle should be either Village or a warform Elim. I don't see how Elims are this chill about end cycle volatility with a potential one-vote difference leading to a lynch. I have somewhat weaker credence in Villager Tuatara now, but need to go back and redo the vote analysis from D1-D3, just that it's not gonna happen today/now. Heron is plain weird but Evil Heron doesn't make sense. Heron has an extremely self-conscious and defensive post prior to voting Falcon that doesn't sit well with me. It's early in the cycle, why are you so concerned about ties? Comes back to a sense that Heron is very keen on optics rather than trying to get it right. It's also not exactly awful that Heron's named lead suspects, Falcon and Tuatara, have Falcon voting on Tuatara. Elim distancing happens so why tell us you know this seems contradictory? Problem with Evil Heron is that their tie-breaking is just senseless either way you look at it. Heron is presented with a Tuatara-Hyena-Beagle tie and ultimately throws down on Hyena. Coupled with Heron's prior voting (cf. D2), this looks really bad considering that Heron hit the one player we now know with high likelihood was a Villager. But this makes little sense if Heron is Evil - Heron has no reason to prefer Village Hyena to Village Tuatara. But if Tuatara is also Evil, then this doesn't explain why Heron was so comfortable with leaving their vote on Tuatara D1 even after Tuatara became the lead train and Mouse voted on Tuatara as well. It was Ross who swung the train single-handedly from Tuatara to Swan. Noteworthy that Flamingo voted after Lion and Scorpion on that Swan train, and Ross sealed it with the swing. Flamingo's hop off the Hyena train could be not wanting to get caught on a bad train but it feels too early for such a move. But three votes accumulate on Beagle shortly and then Flamingo hops off and votes on Heron. It could be an attempt to splinter/peel votes off further. The question to ask as always is: where are the Elims? If the main chaos was largely Village-aligned, then it seems like the Elims were once again split up, in hiding, or simply not voting. Once again, Scorpion and Flamingo stand out for splinter trains, though the Mouse-Falcon votes on Tuatara also remained remarkably stable. Of the Hyena and Beagle trains, suspect at most one Elim candidate on them. Again and again, I think we are prompted to look at the peripherals. Edited to add: Honestly I don't really care about that as long as we get an Elim today. It's nice to get Malibu because this means no worrying about unblockable kills and bodysnatching and Malibu has traces and is a confirmed Elim but any Elim gets us out of our predicament so it doesn't really matter.

There's one possible escape hatch, if you remember Maili and Pyro: there's nothing wrong with claiming Thug because it's generally not really testable unless/until you get killed and by that point, it really doesn't matter. Let's go back to Step One and list the known facts. Eleven players obtained gems D1. (We'll now say ten, by excluding Crocodile.) Seven did not. This is supported by the gem numbers. Of the gems that were taken, we know 4 mateform gems, 2 scholarform gems, 3 warform gems, and 1 artform gem were taken. These are the players we know for a fact did not get gems: <Ross, Ostrich, Dingo>. If they had gotten gems D1, they wouldn't have died dullform. It's not impossible they gained gems and it went back to the Village stash, but it would require gem requests such that the movement was covered - it would also be odd because players usually request roles they want so they have no reason not to use them. These are the players we know for a fact did get gems: <Rhino, Dragonfly, Penguin>. If Dragonfly had not gotten a warform gem D1, Dragonfly could not have survived the N2 kill. Similarly, because no one contested Rhino's N2 PM claim, Rhino could not have survived the N3 kill if he hadn't attuned N1. Penguin died a rebel mateform. These are the claims known with high certainty: <Lion, Flamingo, Hyena>. If Lion had gotten a gem D1, Lion should have attuned it, but instead burned a N1 PM that Rhino, Vulture, and Ross all attested to. Flamingo both claimed to Lion to not have found a gem and sent Lion a N1 PM. Same reasoning applies for both: if they had found a gem, they should have spent N1 attuning it. Highly likely that Hyena died rebel mateform, and no extra gems showed up, so they were telling the truth. These are the claims known with moderate certainty: <Vulture, Falcon, Scorp, Weasel>. Vulture claimed scholarform and has been acting consistently with it; there have been no counterclaimants, and Vulture seems to have a way to partly prove it. At the same time, Village scholars may not want to emerge from hiding, so this is not entirely decisive. Scorp and Weasel could be lying but they'd both have to be lying, or a third player would have to be. Falcon could be lying, but this would be odd - they'd have no way of knowing Penguin didn't attune N1. Let's look at our current pools based off the state of claims and info: Mateform: <Scorp, Weasel, Penguin, Falcon> Warform: <Rhino, Dragonfly> Scholarform: <Vulture> No Gem: <Ross, Ostrich, Dingo, Hyena, Lion, Flamingo> Here are those unaccounted for: <Beagle, Heron, Mouse, Tuatara> Here's the deal. Heron hinted/claimed to me and Rhino D3 (I believe; when they were up for the lynch) that they had a role but were deciding whether or not to say it. I advised against doing so, FWIW. Mouse has claimed they did not go for the artform gem. Beagle has soft-claimed they are not in Scholarform. Beagle, Mouse, and Heron are the only three meeting the scholarform and warform requirements. Unlikely in my view that an Elim would let it lapse. Tuatara has claimed they failed to get a gem D1 and went nimbleform D2. Let's take a look at the Malibu issue. There are only four possibilities for Malibu D1: Malibu went for the warform/scholarform gem. If so, Malibu would have failed, given the warform/scholarform pile-up. This means that Malibu has to be within our group of <Lion, Flamingo, Beagle, Heron, Mouse, Tuatara.> Malibu went for the mateform gem. If so, Malibu would have succeeded because demand < supply. This means that at least one of our three D1 mateform claimants is lying. If Scorp lied, then Weasel would have to be lying as well since they both claimed to be in mateform D2. Weasel cannot be lying since Malibu cannot have a form, and Hyena was a rebel mateform. [Note: This is only true if we've ascertained that no Malibu bodysteal happened.] Falcon cannot be lying since Malibu cannot have a form, and Penguin was a rebel mateform. Malibu went for the artform gem. We don't actually have an artform gem claimant, so we are left with the same group: <Lion, Flamingo, Beagle, Heron, Mouse, Tuatara.> Malibu did not put in an action, or collected an Elim gem. We are still left with the same group: <Lion, Flamingo, Beagle, Heron, Mouse, Tuatara.> So of this group: Let's look again at the various claims. <Flamingo, Tuatara, Lion> all claimed to have failed D1. <Mouse, Heron, Beagle> made no claim. Given the numbers, if we take the claim at face value, then Malibu must be either Flamingo or Tuatara. I'm ruling out Lion due to the artform stuff. But suppose that one of <Mouse, Heron, Beagle> is Malibu. What are the implications? They may have gone for the artform gem. This is the one possibility in which Flamingo and Tuatara could be telling the truth. I feel like that's a strange play for Malibu - they may not have seen that far ahead, and I feel like Malibu would have played the deprivation game so I ascribe low to moderate probability. They may have gone for the warform/scholarform gem. If so, they certainly failed. Moreover, this implies that someone <Tuatara, Flamingo> is lying about having failed to score a gem D1, meaning they are almost certainly Malibu's Evil accomplice because there were only seven failures. If we add Malibu to the failure pool, then we have to subtract someone. This means Tuatara or Flamingo went for an artform gem, succeeded, but lied about it to cover for Malibu. But again, why go for artform if you could go for an Elim pool gem? If they went for the mateform gem, then one of <Scorp, Weasel, Falcon> is lying. It is unlikely to me that Weasel is lying, but it would implicate Scorp as well since Scorp claimed to be mates with Weasel D2. So Scorp, Weasel, and one of <Mouse, Heron, Beagle> would be Elim in this scenario. Same problem if Scorp is lying. It is unlikely that Falcon is lying due to not knowing if Penguin would pop into mateform N1. If they took no action or took an Elim gem, then they would be indistinguishable from the failure pool. Once again, this implies that someone <Tuatara, Flamingo> is lying about having failed to score a gem D1, meaning they are almost certainly Malibu's Evil accomplice because there were only seven failures. If we add Malibu to the failure pool, then we have to subtract someone. This means Tuatara or Flamingo went for an artform gem, succeeded, but lied about it to cover for Malibu. Same problem as the warform/scholarform stream. These are my thoughts. Let me know if I've missed something out. In short, it's not theoretically impossible it's Beagle or Heron - warform and scholarform are convenient places for Malibu to hide - but if so, someone who claimed to have failed D1 would be complicit which still points us back to Tuatara or Flamingo being sus. The failure and success numbers are immutable and we know four Villagers failed D1, and we're quite certain I failed as well, so if we often need to postulate an accomplice for Malibu. This is why I say we should also look at the previous cycles - we should be relying on reads as well to rule out possibilities where possible. The cycle is young and we need to discuss more.

In theory but not in practice. Elim could've claimed the scholarform gem and just sat on it, as Heron pointed out in a group PM. Beagle and Heron are only scholarform candidates in virtue of meeting the requirements for it. In theory, Mouse could be too, if we assume Mouse got it, went inactive, and then met the post length requirements subsequently - I'd have to check but I think they're doing enough RP for it. But this would just point us, IMO, back to the Tuatara-Flamingo duo because Vulture already claimed Scholarform. Weasel or Scorp could be if we assumed they got it and sat on it but then that would require three complicit players, I think: it requires Weasel and Scorp to both be lying about having become D2 mates, and requires another teammate to have gotten mateform and conveniently wound up mates with one of Weasel and Scorp instead of with Falcon...and so on. I feel like that's a bit too involved. Edited to add: With Flamingo's mediationform claim, I honestly feel we've hit the point where it's just better to also go over the results of yesterday's clusterchull (the Day lynch) and do vote and post analysis as well. We don't want to be wrong and if we over-hyperfocus on Malibu and ignore Malibu's teammates, what's the point? It'd be nice to take Malibu out before bodyhopping can ensue, but really, as long as we take out an Elim today, we're in a better position.

Elim kill comes first on Night OoA so it doesn't matter if the victim was donning mateform - they'd still be reflected as their original form when they die so we don't need to consider anyone else. Even if Rhino felt the need to make kissy faces last night ( ) , if the bodysnatch had hit him, the write-up would've said dead warform so that set of possibilities can be safely excluded. So the one weakness in that (and my theory) is that if we hit another Elim, it's goodbye to that plan anyway. But given the amount of aggro that Flamingo was attracting and that they could, if we're at 7/5, end the game tonight with a mislynch, I could see an Elim Team running for this anyway. I guess the way I'd put it is that if this were a C2-C3 thing, I'd be a lot more convinced. Right now, not so sure. I can also say that some players have reported receiving Elim gems - they have no reason to comment on it if they wanted to swap teams, but it's worth noting the Evil Scholarform hypothesis is likely true; either that, or they're distributing original gems from their stash. So 7/5 might not even be an issue when they could be gambling on 7/6. (7/7 unlikely or the game would have been called barring mediationform.) More attendant uncertainty as well based on who mediationform ended up with. But I've always said broader scope of discussion is good, and as much as I am wary of both Flamingo and Tuatara for the timing of the train-starting votes, I really think we should put pressure on the narrowed suspect field because we probably can't afford to get this one wrong. The Elim team doesn't really need the Malibu kill to be unblockable since 2/3 warforms have already been hit.

Falcon claimed to have left mateform. Possible they were lying about it but I don't see what's to be gained in that scenario. But sure, we can hit up Falcon in a PM too Just get your buddies to check in, everyone! PM buddies don't let PM buddies get body-snatched. Malibu rules - if it were a Malibu bodysnatch, it's written up like this: <Original Malibu Name> was a <Victim's Alignment + Victim's Role> Rhino asked about this D1. So on the supposition this is a Malibu takeover, because that's the hypothesis we're trying to test, Malibu had to have killed a mateform. The only two declared/existing mateforms are Weasel and Scorp - Falcon claimed to have abandoned mateform N3 and I see little reason to lie about that but I agree with Rhino, might as well do a Malibu check-in anyway. Weasel would be a good Malibu target but this ignores one thing which is that Weasel vouched for Hyena being in mateform, and accounts for one missing mateform gem. So in this scenario, we would already have to suppose Weasel was very likely Evil anyway, and that the Elim team essentially killed one of their own, which...okay, thanks? D4 Gems Taken: Here we go.

Yes and no - I actually found both the Heron and Beagle switch a bit weird when it happened. Beagle switch would implicate Tuatara in trying to start an alternate train, Heron switch would implicate Flamingo. I think both are possible as well. But need to look more closely, it was just my thought at that point in the cycle given how hotly contested the two trains were. Alright, three possibilities: A: Hyena was a regular kill I think this is the most likely. It's interesting to me because it narrows down the Malibu field further, but I'll think more about that later when I'm not trying to OT. B: Hyena was Malibu and took over Weasel The thing is, since Weasel claimed to be Hyena's mate, if Hyena was Malibu, it'd implicate Weasel as an Elim anyway, so this possibility doesn't make all that much sense. C: Hyena was Malibu and took over Scorp if Hyena was Malibu, it'd implicate Weasel as well. Moreover, this means Scorp has now been taken over. Possible, and good to check if anyone can get a response from Scorp in a PM. We're 7/5 or 8/4 this cycle. One's okay, the other isn't I'm going to try something. Heron, if today is lylo, who do you want dead?

As I mentioned to Rhino, I think the rest is appropriate for a post-game discussion. It's not the first time this subforum has had this ongoing fight on exactly how filthy mech analysis is, and I think we don't need to give @Araris Valerian more bother. Let the old grouch chill. I'm not going to do more analysis until the Day begins as I have been OTing today. WUGMGPVTJKUYOAJBJHEYHZPLCQODDSXOPNAQBMNYS The one they called Swan. And Ross. Atticus sighed and waited for the highstorm.QTwo friends down, and it seemed that there would be more to come. Those of Odium would never stop, and the Fused would never allow them to be free. Freedom had to be taken, or they would simply be dragged back in shackles. Or taken by the Fused. A horrifying thought, that. He hoped they would grant him death instead. He wondered how many of them would be given the choice to don Regal forms. Supposedly an honour, though Atticus did not know. So many were not the same after they'd assumed those forms. Taken, in another way. A clean death. That was all Atticus wanted. He only did not know if he would get it. The highstorm swept in and he tasted freedom on the night air.

But that's untrue. Steel has already clarified the accused formulation isn't needed. You simply have to give a reason in the same post as your final vote for it to count. What do you gain from fighting it this hard? If you're Malibu, and we're 8/5, letting you live through the next day Turn and taking your favoured target of Heron — if Heron is V which to be fair is not confirmed — loses us the game, especially because your kill is then unblockable. Elim teams also like to keep a clean slate if they can. It's not clear to me why Malibu you would not fight, either. You can of course argue we then can't afford to get it wrong so we shouldn't lynch you which may or may not be true; our job is to go for the best candidate to maximise our odds of winning after all. The point is to discuss after all and I've never been a fan of the Village just ignoring discussion.

The only thing I can see at this point is a tacit mediationform claim, hence needing to burn actions on it. Except there's no point in insisting on secrecy because if I can see it, the Elims definitely can. I assume it'll be followed tomorrow by the claim he can prove it with a double vote. Except for this to work, Flamingo needs to be the sole voter, and we need to be able to afford this. I'd also be interested to hear if we have counterclaims during the Day. Even so, even if you take the walkback of the mediationform claim from Flamingo, it still comes back to the fact that Mouse, Tuatara, or Flamingo have to be Malibu. The gem numbers need to check out. For someone like Heron or Beagle to be Malibu, someone in the Seven has to be lying and covering for them which still brings us back to those three. Lying and covering for Malibu may not make you Malibu but it sure makes you Elim.

You could claim you lied about failing to get mediationform. But it hasn't reflected in your votes so clearly you never used it. But we're still back to square one: Malibu has to be among the D1 Seven or the Fabulous Five, and you now claim you are not denying you failed to get warform or scholarform, implying that even if I were to believe you about lying about mediationform for opsec reasons, it's still back to you versus Hyena versus Tuatara for Malibu, with Weasel backing Hyena up, and clearly Tuatara has called you a liar Of course, claiming mediationform is clever, since it's critical to the Village right now, so you might just avoid the lynch if you play your cards right. But this is scaremongering. Potential outcome 1: You registered only one vote on Heron. If you're suggesting that you're in mediationform and she's in workform, she'd have to have attuned N3 because D3 is the first cycle workform gems went missing. We also didn't have previous votes on Heron going missing - Dragonfly voted on Heron D3 and Dragonfly is known to be in warform minimally on N2/D3. So the only window for Heron to have attuned workform is N3. But Heron opened a group PM including me on N3. So she can't have attuned on that Night due to actions economy. So you can't be in mediationform. Even if you used the mediationform gem this night, if Elims kill v!you to suggest Malibu has hopped, as you're suggesting, OoA means we see a dullform rebel dead because the kill comes before gem use. Only Mouse is likely to be in dullform now, if at all, and I'm once again requesting people hit Mouse with a PM. There is no IKYK or tail-chasing: this is blatant scare-mongering because almost all the dullforms are already dead. Basic player psychology: most anyone wants roles. Potential outcome 2: Scaremongering again. If the real Malibu hops, we have enough information to make some sense of this from the write-up role information. Moreover, everyone is already creating huge PM webs tonight. Malibu would always be a problem for trust read invalidation, that's the whole point. Even if you're not real Malibu, real Malibu isn't going to warn us. You don't make a difference to that. If you are not real Malibu and real Malibu hops, anyone who fails to reply to a PM tomorrow is going to be suspicious anyway just by default. As we near mid-to-endgame, it was always a fact that Malibu would hop eventually. If you're exed and flip Village, the obvious problem-makers are then Tuatara and Hyena. And frankly, if we simply place votes on you and fail to discuss, we're not doing our job as Village. Potential outcome 3: More scaremongering, see #2. The logic of the rules still requires someone to be lying, and I've laid out the various scenarios and entailments. We still have as well the results of the past Turn to bring to bear on solving this problem. There is no reason why sudden and significant suspicion on you should immediately cripple the Village. The fact that you're scaremongering to this extent does make me feel a bit more confident about the read of the situation.

You do realise it's even worse if you try to claim scholarform right? I've been tracking and you haven't actually met the scholarform requirements. Which means for...opsec reasons, you have been sitting on a gem rather than attuning to it and using it to help the Village.

Hate to break it to you but we actually haven't. Assume, for the sake of argument, that you're not Malibu. You've lost your form, according to you. If the Elims kill you, kill is first on the OoA. Unless @Azure Mouse is also formless, there is only one possibility if we see you are a dead dullform. And that's...you are a dead dullform. Almost everyone right now is in a form. P.S. Anyone with a spare PM action, make sure to @ Azure Mouse. Here's the problem. It does make them highly sus and therefore likely Elim. And even if we don't get Malibu, getting an Elim is still pretty good. It's back to the D1 problem. Malibu has to be in the D1 Seven or the Fabulous Five. It is impossible - by Steel's own rules - that Malibu can get the warform/scholarform gem. The fact that I failed and you/Hyena failed is sufficient because any of us should have gotten the gem before Malibu. Remember that Malibu is the only player with a role D1 and so disadvantaged in gem grabs. Here's the next question. Assume Malibu is in the D1 Seven. Who can it be? It's not me - I've proven artform to Dragonfly and Vulture, and I have further easter eggs buried in the art I can prove. It can't be Ross, Dingo, or Ostrich - all of them died dullform. So is it you or Hyena? Remember that we know from the gem stash difference between D1 and D2 that ten gems were taken. For whatever reason, seven players failed to take gems or chose not to. If Flamingo lied about not getting a gem, then someone else is keeping quiet as well. Someone else who didn't get a gem. And that someone else can only either be Mouse, or Scorp and Weasel are both Elims together and covering for Malibu. Just to recap, how this option works: either: Mouse is actually Malibu, meaning Flamingo lied about not getting a gem, or one of Scorp and Weasel is Malibu, which means the other is an Elim covering for them. Depending on how this scenario pans out, this requires Flamingo lied about getting a mateform gem which they have absolutely zero reason to do, no one cares about that, and someone should have called Flamingo on it by this point, namely their actual mate. (Generally, this is the problem with any mateform lies that don't postulate both Scorp and Weasel actually took mateform gems, even if the Malibu there didn't necessarily attune it.) [Edited to add: The other possibility in this scenario if Mouse is Malibu is that Flamingo lied about getting an artform gem. Artform. The logic doesn't work out.] The other option is that Malibu is hiding among the WarScholar Five. But we know ten gems were taken, which means seven players don't have gems, which means someone in the D1 Seven actually has a WarScholar gem and is covering for Malibu. Is it you? Is it Hyena? Because it sure ain't me, and Ross, Ostrich, and Dingo are dead and we know they don't have it. They died dullform. The only answer in that scenario is that it's Flamingo who is covering for Malibu, which makes Flamingo Evil. But here's the bigger problem. Flamingo has indeed attempted to vote daily but I don't buy they succeeded and got the warform gem, which I think is their next excuse. No player would fail to immediately use the gem and acquire a passive life, since it literally doesn't kick in until you get hit. If you delay until N2, you are out of synch with everyone else, and you have no protection for C2, which is a strange set of risks for a Villager to take. Warform!Flamingo had no reason to PM me N1 instead of using that gem. In fact, no Elim would start in smokeform, so C1 is the safest time to be using a gem because you can't be spied on.

Note: I think it's a post-game talk because it's still anyone's game to win. Even if I am right about Flamingo, we still have analysis to do about last Turn's results! Village can't afford to get complacent as the Elim team is still rather close to victory. Remember, we're currently on 8/5, or 9/4. Those are still not good numbers. Let's leave post-game talk for the post-game and do our best to get there

Read the rules next time, Gnordadding But yeah no we can talk about that in the post-game, I think. Anyone want to place a bet on whose body is gonna get stolen? Get your PMs ready, everyone

That is indeed my conclusion Cheers Scorp, I don't remember why I thought it was especially important since I got distracted on the roleless tangent, but since it led to Malibu (potentially), I'm not really complaining. Oh, right - because I was trying to make sense of where Mediationform might've ended up. But now tracing that doesn't really matter. What does matter is roleless priority implies that Flamingo is Malibu and lying Edited to add: Sorry for double-post - Scorp's post loaded after mine but not on refresh so IDK what's going on here.

Thanks Weasel, appreciated ...I'm gonna do that Lion thing again, sorry all >> 1. Look if having the gems makes you happy...Rock it, man 2. If Weasel is telling the truth, Weasel took another mateform gem. So we're not looking for a missing mateform. It's interesting that Hyena ended up with Weasel, but @Steeldancer clarified that this time around, he RNGed among active (i.e. attuned) mateforms. I'm not taking this as confirmation or denial of Hyena's claim, just on Steel's methods. D1: We know Weasel claimed a mateform gem on D1; that's what has been established by now via Weasel and Scorp. D2: Could've gone for either the nimbleform or mediationform. Not important, but Weasel, if you're Village and have it, please consider using mediationform. We may need it to block an Elim win at parity as they may be very close :/ Other mediationform claimant is Tuatara. D3: I know who took the nimbleform gem. Which means that for Weasel to have only claimed two types of gems, Weasel took another mateform. So one mateform gem with Weasel, one with Hyena. If this ain't true, someone please counterclaim. This does mean a lot of Hyena's truthfulness potentially still leads back to Weasel. Again, note that I'm not doing vote analysis at all with regard to last Turn. If I have the time and the bandwidth, I'll do it. If we think Hyena is likely Village, then this discussion is moot. I'm just thinking in terms of Hyena's truthfulness about mateform because that's relevant to matters at hand. Things to note: my credences in Vulture being Village and Rhino being Village have increased. In Vulture's case, he was the first to zoom in on Flamingo as being implicated by the Malibu reasoning, and indeed I think the correct answer is that Flamingo is Malibu. Rhino also pushed this strongly.

Sorry, Malibu. I'd like to believe that but it doesn't check out. According to the rules, roleless Villagers and roleless Elims both have absolute priority when contesting for gemstones. There's only one way you could have failed to get mediationform and still be a roleless Villager and that requires both Hyena and Tuatara to be roleless Elims lying about their actions. But that's immediately very likely false. If one of them were Malibu, you'd beat them. If you were really a roleless Villager (or Elim!), you'd beat anyone else to the two mediationform gems. Here are the possibilities as I see them: Roleless Villager Flamingo loses to Elims Hyena and Tuatara. For this to be true, Flamingo has to be very unlucky, and Hyena, Tuatara, and Mouse must all be Elims together. This is because for Flamingo to be a roleless Villager and lose, Hyena and Tuatara must both be roleless Elims. But then, Mouse has to be Malibu. If Mouse isn't Malibu, then we're forced to postulate mateform lying which drags both Scorpion and Weasel into the fray. Falcon is unlikely to be implicated because Penguin was Village. Just to recap, if you're really a roleless Villager, Flamingo, we know four Elims off your flip. Though I grant parity wincon may mean we can't afford that which is why I urge all Villagers with mediationform to use it. Likelihood: Unlikely. Would require an Elim team to tie themselves together in absurd ways. Roleless Villager Flamingo loses to Scorp/Weasel/other Villagers. For this to be true, we have to be mistaken about the D1 Seven. This immediately requires both Hyena and Tuatara to be lying about failing to collect gemstones D1, and requires whichever other players e.g. Scorp (which would by the way also implicate Weasel) to be lying about having successfully secured gemstones D1. Likelihood: I'm just going to say that if, for what you say to be true, nearly 1/5 of the game has to be lying, you're probably the problem here Malibu Flamingo loses to Scorp/Weasel/other Villagers. This would still require Flamingo to be unlucky but this is actually permissible by the rules and I suspect this is the most likely scenario here. Roleless always win. Roleless have absolute priority. I asked Steel as much during N1: If you really are roleless - even a roleless Elim - you would have won that fight for mediationform handsdown, especially if it was against Weasel, who claims mateform and is backed by Scorpion. The most straightforward explanation as to why you lost is you are Malibu. Edit: I may not live to see the dawn, but Flamingo. Making my thoughts clear.

That's fair, I just want to hear from Mouse too. Nimbleform can be soft-proven but it's convenient/a problem that Tuatara happened to only PM Flamingo since Flamingo is sort of a suspect as well. I think to me, there's also: why go for workform as a Villager, especially at this stage? I suppose workform is at least provable but since no one voted on Flamingo... Part of...hmm. Alright. Back to the D1 Seven and the Fabulous Five. <Lion, Ross, Ostrich, Dingo, Flamingo, Tuatara, Hyena> and <Scorp, Weasel, Falcon, Penguin, Mouse(?)> Ross, Ostrich, and Dingo all died in dullform. Lion is in artform. @Amethyst Scorpion, @Emerald Falcon, is it possible for you to reply with a simple yes/no whether you remain in mateform? Here's what I'm thinking. Were the mateform gems even used? Hyena claims to have used one, and Weasel claims to have remained in mateform. But I wonder if we can at least partly track the fate of the gems. D2: There's technically no incentive for Scorp and Weasel to remain in mateform; they'd keep the PM. Scorp might've taken a gem, and Weasel claims to be a serial gem collector. Weasel, is it possible for you to further claim which Days you grabbed gemstones on? We know minimally that one type has to be mateform. It would be strange if Weasel got their hands on a mediationform gemstone - because if they did, then Flamingo or Weasel is lying. If Flamingo were really a roleless Villager, Weasel should never have beaten them to the punch on a mediationform gemstone. Roleless always has absolute priority. Huh. Holy frith. ... Roleless always has absolute priority. The only people who could beat Flamingo to the punch on a mediationform gemstone are: Tuatara, Hyena, and me. And I most definitely went for an artform gemstone. Hyena claims to have been inactive D2 and then collected a D3 mateform gemstone. From their post history, they were present N2, so this might or might not check out, I'm not sure. Tuatara claims to have gone for nimbleform D2 rather than mediationform. If Hyena and Tuatara are both telling the truth, anyone who fought Flamingo for a mediationform gemstone should have lost - because the only people who could have won over Flamingo are roleless. Roleless have absolute priority when going for gemstones. If Flamingo is truthful about not getting the gemstone, then Hyena and Tuatara are both lying and both Elims. We take different paths, @Plum Rhinoceros. But we get there in the end. Edited to add: In fact, if Flamingo is telling the truth, both Hyena and Tuatara must be lying, because there are two mediationform gemstones, and if one of them is lying, then Flamingo would still have successfully claimed the mediationform gemstone. This doesn't exclude the possibility that one of them and Flamingo are both lying, but that if we think Flamingo is truthful, then it must, of necessity, implicate both Hyena and Tuatara in a lie. That doesn't look good for Village cred. tldr; bad Flamingo (maybe Hyena/Tuatara as well) or bad Hyena and Tuatara, take your pick. But I think I smell Malibu.

I'm sorry, but I appreciate your patience and swift replies