Opal Lion

How so? Genuine question - AG7 and this game and really my SE history proves post analysis is my weakness. I'm more a mech analysis/vote analysis/pathwalking guy so I play to my strengths. Be interested in what you see. Edited to add: :sob: I tried, I even cut my RP short for this y'all

I actually asked Steel about this. The response is that ideally the Scholars know at the start of the Turn, but in practice, since he can forget, he'll let them know when someone sends an action in. So Steel automatically notifies them but in practice that can be iffy.

Theoretically. Could be: Tuatara or Mouse - lower credence from Mouse, actually I'd just like to hear from @Azure Mouse. Did you or did you not go for artform D1? If you did, can you prove it? One final possibility is that it's Hyena but this requires: Hyena to be Elim with Weasel, and me to hear back from Steel about a clarificatory question I had on the mate PM selection process. I theorise that if I'm right about this possibility, then [Edited to add: Hyena kept the gem, didn't use it, and Falcon's new PM partner is the other mateform.] Note that this doesn't include any analysis of the - clusterchull that went down in the last moments of the Day Turn. If you have higher credence in Tuatara and Hyena being Village due to the voting and Beagle's behaviour, then I'd say it certainly points quite strongly to Flamingo.

Brave of you to assume I don't assault @Steeldancer with questions on a daily/hourly basis before making assertions about the rules, but ultimately a wise position Note: There is one situation in which I think Hyena could be Malibu-em. Suppose: Hyena claims the mateform gem D3. Hyena is Malibu-em so Hyena can't use the gem, but Weasel claims to have been partnered with Hyena anyway. The other mateform gem person pairs up with @Emerald Falcon - I'd like to confirm you're the one who received a new partner. It's a good alibi but it would imply both Weasel and Hyena are Evil together. Edited to add: That's interesting because no workform gems were taken D2, which means the earliest you got a gem was D3. What happened D2?

...This teaches me to drink tea while reading SE and at a keyboard. Wyrm, you see this? +1 to Vulture. I'm calling 'em Malibu-em from now on.

Checks out for me, thanks for clarifying! Edit: Recommend broad spread of PMs - try to go for the maximum of four players. That way, we can detect if Mavset-im hops as I expect Mavset-im to make an emergency hop tonight.

I've brought this up because let's return to the D1 Seven. Eighteen players. We remove Swan because OoA means Swan did not have opportunity to collect a gem. (Go to the dead doc, do not pass go, do not collect 200 broams...) Crocodile did not go for a warform/scholarform gem. We know this because her gem returned to the stash, whatever it was, just that it wasn't a mateform gem. Of the eighteen: Six successfully obtained non warform/scholarform gems: our four mateform claimants (Scorp, Weasel, Falcon, Penguin), and the lone artform claimant (whoever it was; they haven't used it since.) Twelve got into a brawl over the warform/scholarform gems: this is simple mathematics; we deduct from the six that successfully obtained non warform/scholarform gems. Of this twelve, five successfully obtained gems (three warform, and two scholarform.) Seven - our D1 seven - did not. Since everyone except Mavset-im is roleless D1, everyone except Mavset-im has absolute priority in scoring gems. Recall that roleless have absolute priority over players with roles. In other words, as long as Village and Elim roleless are going for the gems, Mavset-im will not get a gem. So Mavset-im has to be among our seven. Recall also that Villagers do get a higher probability of success as compared to Elims in collecting gems. In other words, the more Villagers there are in the warform/scholarform brawl, the higher our credence should be that a Villager collected the gems. Of course, weird things can go down, RNGesus can troll. But it's worth looking at the overall picture. Who are our current seven? <Me, Ross, Ostrich, Flamingo, Dingo, Tuatara, Hyena.> Assume that a Villager wouldn't lie about this; an Elim might. Hyena has a role insofar as that Weasel is vouching for them. I have proven my role to Dragonfly and Vulture. Which means that Mavset-im must be either Flamingo or Tuatara, because recall that as a player with a role, Mavset-im does not have absolute priority in getting a gem. Mavset-im automatically loses in a gem grabbing fight as long as there are roleless and on D1, everyone but Mavset-im is roleless. But there's another interesting consequence. Where are the Elims? If we think Tuatara, me, and Hyena are likely Village to differing extents, we have a problem. Well, several problems. <Me, Ross, Ostrich, Flamingo, Dingo, Tuatara, Hyena.> This implies that Flamingo is likely Elim. If Flamingo isn't Elim, then we have another problem: namely, that we think all seven of the D1 seven are Village. Even if we think Tuatara, me, and Hyena are all likely Village, we still think six of the D1 seven are Village. This has to be deeply problematic because where are the Elims then? We are committed to one of two views, or a mix of them: <Rhino, Dragonfly, Vulture, Beagle, Heron>: WarScholar Five <Scorp, Weasel, Falcon, Penguin, Mouse(?)/Artform #1>: Fabulous Five The more Villagers there are in the pool of seven, the more we are committed to the view that despite the statistical unlikeliness (which admittedly, we don't know about), there are Elims in WarScholar Five. Alternatively, we must be committed to the view that the Elims all went for mateform and/or artform, which makes I think a bit less sense. The actual view might be a mix: some Elims going for the WarScholar brawl, and some going for mateform. The fewer we think went for mateform, the more we have to allocate Elims to either WarScholar Five or the D1 Seven. What I am saying is that the two views as currently stated: (V1): WarScholar Five is mostly Village (V2): D1 Seven is mostly Village are incompatible, or at least, probabilistically weird. They also entail that: (V3) The Fabulous Five is mostly Elim. Furthermore, we have, in my view, three main candidates for Mavset-im. Because roleless, recall, receive absolute priority for a gem over Mavset-im: If Mavset-im went for the WarScholar huddle, we expect to find Mavset-im in the set of <Tuatara, Flamingo> If Mavset-im went for the Fabulous Five, we expect to find Mavset-im in the set of: <Artform #1/Mouse(?)> [Note: Mavset-im may not be Mouse - Mouse may not be Artform #1, but if so, someone in WarScholar Five is Artform #1 [i.e. Vulture, Beagle, and Heron]; alternatively, one of Tuatara, Hyena, or Flamingo is Artform #1.] Mavset-im could have gone for a mateform gem D1 but I find it unlikely; they would have needed a Night turn to pass the gem for a teammate to use; said Elim would have attuned N2 instead. The only player this happened to was Penguin, who is known Village. In theory, Falcon could have also attuned N2 and lied about having spent another turn in mateform, but this would make Falcon and Mavset-im Elim teammates. This was also a risk on Falcon's part so I find that a bit unlikely, as they might not have known whether Penguin was already in mateform N1. Mavset-im could have gone for the artform gemstone, just to make up numbers. This explains why we have seen no sign of the artform gemstone being used. But I find that a bit more unlikely because I think that if Mavset-im were playing deprivation, they could've tried going for mediationform or workform. Perhaps they expected both forms to be popular as well, but I ascribe low probability to the thought that Mavset-im went artform. tldr; Someone in <Flamingo, Hyena, and Tuatara> is Mavset-im. For Hyena to be Mavset-im requires a bit more lying about mateform than seems plausible, so realistically, either Tuatara or Flamingo is Mavset-im. Mouse/Artform #1(?) could be Mavset-im but I ascribe lower probability. The more people in D1 Seven you think are Village, the more Heron's assertion about WarScholar Five being largely Village doesn't seem plausible. The only alternative is to postulate high Elim penetration in the Fabulous Five. That doesn't seem likely either. When did you claim the artform gem then? D1? Edited to add: Mmm, lies... I'm the person who grabbed the D2 artform gem, Tuatara. I know this. You really want to thunderdome with me?

Possible to confirm that the vote count on Tuatara is correct? i.e. two names but only one vote? If so, good shout, Falcon.

Steel roleclaiming Odium confirmed Edit: Hey all - interesting question So Flamingo PMed me N1 and claimed to also have failed to have gotten a gem. Reasonable, I think, since N1 PM. Has anyone since received a PM from Flamingo? Just to recap, these are the gems missing on D2. We'd have known if Flamingo had used the mediationform gems - unless someone wants to counterclaim mateform on Hyena, Hyena ain't workform, and both D3 and D4 have had the votes = number of players. Heron made PMs N2 and N3 - no workform was missing D1. Flamingo isn't in mediationform. If Flamingo isn't making PMs, what's a Villager doing with extra actions? For that matter, anyone else got a D2 nimbleform gem claim?

So our D1 Seven: Me, Ross, Ostrich, Flamingo, Dingo Claimed: Tuatara, Hyena. Seems like Mouse did in fact get something D1, or one of our two claimants is lying. Or someone is lying about their N1 actions, that's possible too. Just to repeat: we know from the flip and the inactivity kills that Ostrich and Ross didn't get anything. Dingo died in dullform and was active through D2 so if they had a gem, they'd likely have used it. I used a PM action N1: this was noted by Ross, Rhino, and Vulture. Vulture, I'm curious about your missing that Swan was dead. This isn't the first time it's come up.

I'll take that as our 'lynch' I guess. We couldn't decide so the gods did. God, what a frithin' mess... I'm fine with an earlier Night. Be nice to hear from everyone else.

Beagle

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[OOC: How the frith do I RP within ten minutes given all this pressure.] Dreams of a wine-dark sea. Atticus thought he was drowning. Perhaps drowning was preferable. He saw knives behind every smile. Visions of the streets of Kholinar, drenched in blood lurched in and out of his mind's eye. The ground seemed to keel beneath his feet. He had to keep walking. Had to keep putting one foot in front of the other. The paleness of the sky was a poem to itself. The dreams this time took him high above a crow's nest, glancing out at the wide ocean. Scent of brine and salt. A brother's laugh. The Fused, he found himself thinking, to Sorrow.QThey want to be in charge, but have no idea what they'll do afterwards. Bro Swan be dead since D1 though I guess she'd be happy to know you're thinking of her Edited to add: KVPOHSOSKIYAZXUVILTUZWZPREOCFFQXXZSVUMQRBBOUIO

Cards on the table time. Realistically, we are either 9/5 or 10/4. There are exotic scenarios where Villagers accept conversion. I'd rather not get into them right now. If we are 9/5: A mislynch today and a successful Elim kill tonight (not that difficult, given they've hit 2/3 warforms, meaning they have easy, killable targets left) means we walk into C5 with 7/5. The Elim team wins at parity. (Or, as @Steeldancer told me when I asked, when the Village can't fight anymore. I'll come back to this in a second.) All they have to do at 7/5 is to secure a mislynch (6/5) and to use the unblockable Mavset-im kill. 5/5, gg. Game over. If we are 10/4: The situation is a bit less dire. A mislynch today and a successful Elim kill tonight puts us at 8/4 for C5, giving us one more cycle's breathing room. A mislynch and another successful kill puts us at 6/4. C6 becomes lylo. Failure at C6 and it's gg all over again. Game over. - There are some ways to complicate this picture. As I said, if Villagers accept conversion, we could be in a numerically worse position than expected. Another complication is Dingo's alignment, and whether Dingo is filter-killed or replaced by a pinch-hitter. Suppose for the sake of argument that Dingo is filter-killed. In this scenario: Village!Dingo means we are already 7/5 as of the end of this Turn, with the potential to be at 6/5 going into C5. A mislynch automatically loses us the game at D5. In a 10/4 scenario, Village!Dingo means we walk into N4 with 8/4, where a successful kill means we start C5 at 7/4. Another mislynch and another successful kill puts us at 5/4, with the game slated to end D4. Evil!Dingo means the filter gods have granted us a reprieve. A mislynch puts us at 8/4 for N4, and a successful NK means we start C5 at 7/4. Evil Dingo in the 10/4 scenario is a little better - we go into the Night with 9/3, where a successful kill puts us at 8/3. We have another three cycles (6/3, 4/3, 3/3 - D7) to reach parity. Steel phrased his wincon as "when the Village can't fight anymore." If you think about it, it's reasonable. There are no Coinshots in this game. Ties don't kill. At parity, the Village has to vote together in order to stop Elim lynch control. In the best case scenario where the Village votes together, they tie with the Elims and the NK goes through. (It's guaranteed to go through if they've been hanging on to the Mavset-im kill.) Game over. The one or two complications I can see which explains why Steel clarified that by parity, he meant Village inability to resist - suppose the Elims hit a warform. (Note that this is unlikely: the Elims know who the non-voters are, who the mateforms are, who one artform is. Hitting any of these players guarantees the kill.) But suppose they do. The game repeats itself again next cycle, with a tie, and this time, the NK goes through. Parity is essentially zugzwang. There is only one scenario I think in which the Village can still resist at parity. If you're a Villager with mediationform, you should consider using it as lylo draws near. It might be the only thing between us and a parity loss. And honestly I'd consider that a desperation move, so there is that. - I mention this because if you want to info lynch, please be aware we are at a stage where we are close to not being able to afford LAFO. If you're a voting Villager, please consider going after someone you actually really suspect. I am partly guilty of this as I doubled up on Beagle. It's partly a gut thing, but also partly a hope I could at least provoke something readable by putting Beagle under pressure, though I admit I came late to this in the turn, probably because I like doing squats with Rhino Part of this comes from a conclusion I have no choice but to draw: Suppose that I still think Dragonfly (more strongly) and Vulture (more lightly) are Village. Suppose I now also think - lightly as well - that Rhino is Village. I know my own alignment. Where are the Elims? Once again, I find myself drawn to the peripherals. I can continue to scrutinise the loud players. Or I can accept for the moment my Village reads and move on to look and try to cast attention and pressure where it hasn't been going. In fact, let's play a game. This game is called: Where The Frith Is Mavset-Im? Here are the players who can't be Mavset-im, with high confidence: <Dragonfly, Lion, Rhino, Falcon, Weasel, Scorpion> In short: mateform would require two mateform Elims for them to pull that lie off. Not impossible, but very unlikely. Dragonfly and Rhino have been mechanically confirmed as having a form. I predicted the artform results in the write-up and can decipher the Art. Here are the players who can't be Mavset-im with moderate to moderately-high confidence: <Hyena, Vulture> I don't think Hyena can fake a mateform claim. If they're claiming having a PM with a mate, then if the two actual mateform gemstone claimants read this, they should sound off. I think it would take a lot of luck for Vulture to get the forms researched right if challenged by the other scholarform. Here are the players whom we can't rule out from being Mavset-im: <Heron, Beagle, Tuatara, Flamingo, Mouse.> I am too null/lean very very light Village on Tuatara to want to LAFO them at this stage. Heron intimated having a role, and both Heron and Beagle have softed both warform and scholarform. In my view, if you're Mavset-im, softing something like warform is the way to go: in Beagle's case, it's insulated him from having to deal with too much scrutiny for two whole cycles. But why should someone softing warform be any less likely to be Mavset-im? Long story short, my own reason for going after Hyena boils down to what appears to be bad, peripheral voting on D1, and Elim behaviour profiling. I don't feel it's substantially strong but it's what I was feeling. I'm interested in why the post failed to soften your read on them: I take the point on the alibi but the tone of their post is what made me hesitate as I actually disagree with their alibi point. I feel as though I have slightly stronger reasons to go after Heron or Falcon, whereas for Beagle, it's largely gut at the moment, and a desire to see if pressure makes anything pop out. Unfortunately, pressure only made Flamingo show up, and I suppose, you. I lightly Village read you, so join the "damnit, why" club I guess. Ninja-ed Edited to add: The thing is, what I don't like is that if we really knew who Hyena's mate was, we could very likely thin that pool further. Rhino is not in mateform, and if we're right on Tuatara, then it's possible to cull the Mavset-im (and so guaranteed Elim) pool even further. Now that I've said it, Mavset-im might try to skip town tonight, but we have PMs and we're not afraid to use them >:) I just don't see the point in reticence at this point in time apart from a reluctance to out nonconsensually. Disagree. He does now. Beagle, Hyena.

Given I believe we are currently in a three way tie, this seems necessary Continuing to evaluate. Hyena's last post tries to be helpful: noted that it comes as a response to pressure. On further thought, I generally feel mateform is difficult to fakeclaim as since two mateform gems went missing, the real mates should know each other, but have not sounded out, though to be fair, maybe timezones. Or if they haven't used the gems I guess. We're currently 9-5 or 10-4 — I prefer 9-5 as I think it's important to build a buffer into our assumptions. My vote is likely going to move as well. I would prefer no mess from mediationform and we currently are in a tie.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but someone who refuses to reveal they are your mate when you say: should be automatically suspicious, since if you did just gain mateform, this would show you cannot have put in the NK, which would literally give you an alibi. At this point, given you're one half of the leading tie, refusal to speak up in favour of you on something as minor as this doesn't seem a very Village thing to do. I am not excessively set on Hyena though. My vote on them is largely because Hyena is clearly present, but not voting, and also a peripheral, and I'm softening my stance on Rhino after a wincon comment from Rhino in our group PM I may swap to Falcon I guess. On rereading, I think they fit the criterion for peripherality as well, and while I understand players not wanting to lose PMs, I'm not especially getting a good vibe off their C1 response to Tuatara, and their votes do feel a bit sticky, which is ironic, given that's what they @ me for as well. I am half-tempted to go Weasel, to join Tuatara on Beagle, or to - You know what. Hyena Beagle - because I like Beagles but I think Oxblood is a bad colour on them

So, can anyone confirm being Hyena's mate? Reads potentially like workform to me.

Last big push from me or attempt to make sense of the voting. This is going to be me thinking aloud more or less so RIP to everyone in the thread. Day One In retrospect, looking at this: I agree with Flamingo's N1 assessment Elim votes were likely (but not guaranteed) spread out. though they could easily have non-voters as well. I'm trying to italicise all non-active votes just to make it a bit clearer who was actually a live vote by rollover. It's hard to be sure but we had a Swan-Dingo-Tuatara window at one juncture. Ross was the key swing, but Ross is Village. Specifically: These things happen: Swan goes onto Dingo, so we get: In response, Flamingo goes after Swan for voting alongside their key suspicion: And then Dragonfly goes on Dingo: So we have a 4-3-3 window where Tuatara is in the lead. I think the question is whether the other two trains were started to see what sticks and what saves Tuatara, but I find that a bit questionable because Swan was Village and I have high credence that Dragonfly is Village. And Ross, a known Villager, is the key vote, turning the Swan train into the final train: That's a decent amount of overt Villager activity, based off my existing credences (cf. Ross, Dragonfly, Swan, I exclude myself only because I know, GM PM issues.) We already knew there were scattered Elims, or at least a glance at the greens suggest Elims were scattered, but I think really lends to the sense the Elims either weren't especially worried, or overtly wrangling. Possible as well that high Village activity might have meant they didn't need to move in earnest. I don't know. Something to keep in mind as I move to the D2 data I suppose. So, one key question: who didn't vote that cycle? Won't rule out the possibility there is a crouching Elim, but spread out definitely seems right. Day Two: Tuatara comes up as an alternative, though Heron-driven. Movement is between Penguin and Ross, and we now know both trains are v/v. Strictly from the perspective of the votes, Heron comes off poorly as pulling off of a bad lynch. Flamingo's move from Dingo to Penguin is unexplained apart from a "I'm going to risk getting closer to a tie." Need to see if this thread was pursued; if not, I should ask them about it in thread. [Note: Flamingo has since clarified that they didn't feel Ross was a good candidate - why so? Or why stronger suspicions on Penguin?] Scorp on Dragonfly is still odd: safe, reactionary vote, and if you agree with Ross's reasoning about ties, why not act to protect Ross? And why not @ Heron for further coming down on the tie? I'm sure I @ Scorpion for it; I'll need to read and think again. [Note: If it's not obvious, I'm just c/ping from my notes and relooking at the analysis again because I am lazy. I'm fine with Scorp pointing out that agreeing with Ross doesn't mean protecting Ross, but I feel their reasons don't change how their swift jump onto Dragonfly looks. It's a neat safe way to stack a vote.] The fact no Elims were fussed and the tie persisted shouldn't have been surprising since we now know it was v/v. Once again, I would argue at most one Elim per train, if not just scattered on 'safe', peripheral trains, which is why Scorp comes to mind again, as does Beagle, in retrospect. List of non-voters: That's a lot of quiet people. Possibly one Elim lurking in there. I'm interested in Scorp's read of Weasel too. [Note: Ok but not that informative.] I'm still eh about Rhino in terms of vote-diversity I suppose. For someone who is active in discussion and has fluid suspicions, vote-diversity is sort of non-committal this cycle. Anyway, on to D3. Day Three: Feel like we almost certainly have an Elim on this one due to size, but that being said. Let's look at non-voters first: Tuatara is odd, but benefit of the doubt if they're away for the moment, I suppose. Weasel and Hyena are clearly watching, just not voting, which is a bit of an alarm bell. If Dingo's bluetext about forgetting about the game is right and it had better be, since I have strong opinions about lying about bluetext, they probably aren't Elim. Falcon and Penguin can't be Elims together so I don't know if I'd read Falcon Village for that. Breaking mateform by voting on your mate once you have the PM is no big deal because you'll keep the PM. Will have to go back to their posts in general. Flamingo either has one hell of a Penguin tunnel or low vote diversity: I don't really know which. Hyena gut-read Penguin subsequently as Village but was non-committal enough not to get involved, which is something that stands out to me. Rhino's initial vote on Flamingo - if it was never explained, I'll have to remember to ask about it. His subsequent hop off Penguin and onto Falcon is strange, considering that he's stated he trusts Vulture, the Falcon vote does nothing, and the whole weird / weird-Evil distinction comes to mind again. Doing so directly endangered Vulture and read more like someone trying to distance from a bad train while keeping Village cred. [Note: Rhino has engaged with this N3 but I'm still flagging the vote pattern anyway.] Hops back on after getting @ about the state of the votes and the possibility of Mediationform. (Oh yeah, Village don't vote manip does seem a bit performative to me I guess though it could be a playstyle thing too.) I don't know if I am apparently going to leave the vote on Hyena. In summation, on the assumption there are anywhere between four to five Elims: These are peripheral voters: they largely decline to take part in the main train, or just don't vote. I italicised Beagle, Falcon, and Scorpion because Falcon took part in the D3 countertrain to save Penguin, and Scorp has been on the D1 Swan train and D3 Penguin train, and is currently the lone Vulture vote so I give them 50-50 for peripherality. Weasel has not at any point voted. We've heard from Tuatara but Tuatara still declines to vote, unless I've missed something, we haven't heard from Hyena in terms of voting at all after D1, and Mouse has just been replaced and has gone on Tuatara. I think Dingo is/will be a moot point due to their being on death row this cycle. Either way, I do think there is at least one Elim hiding among the peripherals; credence that there are more peripheral Elims increases if we think most of the high-activity posters are Village. Beagle's votes due to the late voting are just very hard to read. I don't especially get anything strong off of post analysis but I've always favoured vote analysis anyway. Back to D1: We had the most voters on D1, and I think depending on your read of whether Swan/Tuatara/Dingo was V/V/E or V/V/V or V/E/E, it colours things differently. V/E/E doesn't read right to me, due to the lack of urgency and the fact it was Ross who made the fatal vote swap, though the Elim team could certainly have a good risk appetite. But maybe let's take a different tack. Let's look at each of the possibilities in turn and try to work out where the Elims might be hiding: V/V/V Let's look again at who didn't vote this cycle: If it's V/V/V, the most likely Elim disposition is spread out among the trains. They simply have no reason to be concentrated because they have no real reason to clump up on a single train due to no particular need for one player to die. I think I agree with the assessment that the Swan train likely contains at least one Elim, and probably not more than that, which means that of the set of <Scorp, Flamingo>, I should by right suspect just one of them. The Penguin train stands out as a nice, peripheral place to stack votes, as does the Rhino train, implicating Dingo, Hyena, and Vulture, purely in terms of voting patterns. By definition, this scenario assumes V/V/V, so among the non-voters, I would have to look at Weasel and Beagle. V/V/E or V/E/V By definition, this is the one-Elim possibility, but there are two sub-possibilities. Tuatara is Elim, or Dingo is Elim. Here is the state of the voting while Tuatara is in the lead: More specifically: Mouse votes Tuatara, placing Tuatara solidly in the lead. In response, a few minutes after, Rhino votes on Dingo: In this scenario, Mouse isn't Elim. Rhino could be Elim, or not (wow, so helpful Lion!) - but I think there are two actions we need to look out for in this scenario. Who is starting new trains, hoping to see what sticks? And who is stacking onto existing trains that aren't Tuatara? The next movement is from Swan on Dingo, so clearly someone took the bait. Meanwhile, Flamingo votes Swan for voting alongside one of their suspicions. Dragonfly then stacks up on Dingo. This alternative train is now live. Ross goes soon onto Swan, and makes it 4-3. Ross and Swan are known Villagers, so I'm going to exclude them from analysis. In terms of stacking, Dragonfly and Flamingo stick out. In terms of train creation, Rhino is the only one who sticks out. The Penguin train existed before Tuatara was really in danger. If we look at the sub-possibility where Dingo is Elim, Dingo is only in mild danger after Dragonfly stacks up. I don't take that to be especially indicative due to my Village read of Dragonfly and Swan is known Village; however, it is possible that Rhino was distancing. No strong read either way from this vote, but I don't think Rhino is wrong to ? Dingo in this case so it's not obviously a strange or bad vote. I feel that in either of these possibilities, we are likely to have fewer non-committal Elims, but I think that given the amount of likely Village activity (Dragonfly, Ross, Swan) near the end, it's difficult to say for sure. V/E/E Leaves us with one big question: where are the Elims? Ties don't kill in this game, so they may very well have been fine with a tie or a near tie, with someone waiting to ensure one if need be. Not necessarily exculpatory for Rhino - distancing votes happen, and Rhino may not have expected Swan or Dragonfly to swoop on in. Mouse looks unlikely to be Elim in this scenario. Falcon could have been distancing, but this gives us at most one Elim on the Tuatara train, if at all. It does look a bit better for Heron and Falcon I suppose. Swan train looks worse in comparison. Given the timing of my Swan vote, I'd say Flamingo's movement is noteworthy in this scenario, since we must ignore Ross's. I think across all the scenarios, "Spread out" is the best answer: the Dingo train did come together a bit fast, but when we know the key shifts were done by Villagers or people we have higher credence are Villagers, it's hard to postulate enemy action here. Which is one way of saying: the non-voter trains, and possibly some peripheral trains, either because they had no stake in the voting, or because they wanted to see what would stick. Wow, Rhino just posted something as I've been squinting at this mega-post. Let me see what I've missed once I'm done. I just want to finish my duty

Beagle hasn't claimed but there are only so many players voting and with posts of > 150 words each Day Turn. Excluding Crocodile, since no one died N2 or N3, we know that there's some gem-hoarding going on. Penguin died a mateform so that's one gem to write off, and they used the gem D2, so having been lynched D3, had no further opportunity to claim a gem. That brings us down to 22 gems. Ross didn't claim a gem either due to OoA, and neither did Swan, so we're looking at a total of 18 - 3 = 15 players, and 22 gems. Either seven players really wanted redundancy or I think we're seeing some Elim day grabs potentially. Minus you and Dragonfly because you'd both have no reason not to go for gems especially having lost warform's one benefit - five players chasing redundancy. Could be other mateforms and warforms as well, so maybe it's overly-hasty to suspect Elim action. The fact we haven't seen mediationform in action should imply it's being hoarded, I think.

I can do you one better Tracker of Gems Taken: Yes, and in my view, that's something that has to be ascertained based off the data in the first place: did the Elims go to their stash, or no? Where are the Elims to be found? Back on N1, Flamingo speculated that the Elims were to be found on every major train. At this point, I'm really just interested in profiling and modeling Elim action and combining that sense of what the Elims are doing with vote analysis. To be a bit blunt, all we have for Heron, Vulture, and Beagle right now are claims they got specific gems and softing certain forms. There's no mechanical evidence, though it's certainly verifiable. The core group of four players who demonstrably either did not get a gem, or claimed to not have gotten one and spent their Night action on PMs also can be minimally ascertained to have not successfully claimed a gem from the Village stash (cf. Ross and Ostrich dying in dullform). Tuatara's form is entirely claimed at the moment; I feel my claim is a tad stronger in light of the fact the D2 artform gem is missing, no one is contradicting me on having gone for it, I did spend my N1 action on that PM, and I predicted the contents of the Tineye vandalisation art So it would be strange for me to have gone for an Elim gem and then just overwritten it with an artform gem. It's not really impossible but it'd be an odd way to waste an action. You mentioned at most one Elim in the mateform group; I agree with this assessment. I do think the pool of seven i.e. those who did not claim a Village gem likely contains at least one Elim, and an Elim who went for the Elim stash has to be in the group of seven as well because the seven is derived from nineteen players subtracting Swan, Crocodile, and the ten who successfully claimed a Village gem. It's just that I don't necessarily find 'went for the Elim stash' a helpful possibility because an Elim could also try to go for the warform/scholarform fight. The main reason it might be helpful to consider this is just that the more Elims went for their stash, the more we can lightly clear anyone with warform/scholarform. Keyword: lightly. Edited to add: Let me phrase it this way as I think it's more direct and so more helpful. A simple count of the D1 missing gems confirms for us that ten players successfully claimed Village gems. Eleven if we want to add Crocodile, though I think nothing is lost by excluding Crocodile. Subtraction from total player numbers tells us that seven players failed to claim Village gems. They could be Elims who tried and failed in the warform/scholarform gem fight, they could be Villagers who failed, or they could be Elims who went for the Elim stash. I think we have enough information to work out some possibilities, but since some of us are essentially just claiming to have failed D1, the possibility of having gone to the Elim stash instead is a live one. I will point out I think Mavset-im definitely went for a Village gem D1 - they have nothing better to do with their action anyway as claiming an Elim gem is functionally useless and wastes their action unless they were feeding teammates.

If there's an Elim in decayform, it's information we still don't have. They'd have to spend an action first which could help us if we are looking at action logs and I'm not necessarily convinced they went for decayform at this juncture. Unless they've been hitting inactives or players without gems (possible), that's radio silence from anyone who should've sounded out on a decayform hit. That's still something to work from, if there really is someone in decayform. Apart from our warforms tanking NKs for us, I honestly think the biggest superpower we need right now are Villagers signing on to discuss and vote. This game was always meant to be analysis-centric. Role gems are nice but they're not game-winners especially at this juncture. I'm with Rhino on the fact that there's a time and place for secrecy, and that we're rapidly reaching the point where it's more important to find an Elim than to hide roles we...really weren't hiding all that well anyway. Our four mateforms are already known and I believe that due to circumstantial reasons and tracking, I know with a bit of room for error and one or two operational assumptions all the scholarforms and warforms. This is entirely due to player behaviour rather than opsec. If we want to talk about opsec, opsec already failed when we had such a low vote and post size count that those roles couldn't blend in. I'm going to take a stab at the pool of players who didn't score a gem D1. I'm one of them, as indicated by the N1 group PM I made. We know Ross and Ostrich were two other players, and confirmed Villagers. Tuatara has claimed to have gotten a D2 gem, which puts them among those who failed D1. (FYI, I'm the D2 artform claimant, so we know Tuatara either went for nimbleform or mediationform. If you aren't the recepient of a Tuatara PM, we should probably ask what's happening with Tuatara's extra action.) I received a PM from Flamingo N1 so Flamingo didn't succeed either. (Sorry Flamingo, I think it's time to bring this out into the open.) This gives us a pool of five out of seven players. If we make a few operating assumptions, I think we know who all seven are. I will assume that Dingo and Mouse were in the seven. I think it is rare for players to go inactive on scoring a 'fun' role or a 'power' role; this has also been my defeasible reasoning for being less gung-ho on Dingo now. I think given Dingo's prior enthusiasm to be an Elim, and this general psychological tendency among a certain profile of player, it is less likely for Dingo to be an Elim. Also, I think the filter will take care of Dingo for us anyway, so that's not a big deal right now. Similarly, given Mouse's inactivity, while RL happens, I do think this might make Mouse a candidate for a failed role grab D1. But this is an assumption so I shall mark it as one. I don't think it's impossible that all seven players are Village but I think it would be very unlikely for all to be Village without a single Elim among us. I acknowledge the inclusion of Dingo and Mouse sort of muddies things, but minimally, we have certainty on the identities of five and allegiances of two. I would argue it's beyond question that Weasel, Scorpion, Penguin, Falcon, Rhino (due to the N2 and N3 PMs unless those were with teammates and that would be such a weird lie that I'm ignoring this possibility), and Dragonfly all got gems D1 due to verifiability. (Vulture and Heron have made claims but I will rank claims one step below this level of verification - we can add them in on Level 2.) This gives us 6 players who demonstrably got D1 gems, 8 if we take Vulture's and Heron's claims as plausible. I will tentatively add Beagle to this list for demonstrating a few tells. I don't think the mateform grab is necessarily allegiance-indicative: being unable to vote for your mate is convenient, and I could see having a lasting PM without needing to spend actions as being something Elims would like. (Village too, to be fair.) What's important is that because everyone was roleless (except Mavset-im) and there were more mateform gems than demand, everyone was guaranteed a mateform gem anyway. On the assumption that twelve players (7 + 5) went for the warform/scholarform gems, we have very slight reason to believe these are more likely to be Village, but RNGesus is a pain, frankly, and we don't know the distribution and base probabilities so there is that.

The real question is, how many times do you think Dingo counted for ':P.'?

I see the Tuatara arguments, it just doesn't really feel V/E/E or V/V/E D1 to me, depending on your view of Dingo. Ross was also the late deciding swing so I don't really know if I'd take it to be especially indicative. Guess I'm agreeing with Rhino and Mouse on Tuatara which I don't know about. Of the two, I obviously still feel worse about Scorpion than Flamingo — with the caveat that yes I know you've responded and thank you, I' ll go over those again, but the voting patterns are what still don't seem right to me. My general philosophy is that players can have a silver tongue but voting patterns reflect strategic priorities. I guess this gives me a Scorpion-Heron-Rhino triad to re-examine. Brief point on the WGG — I intuitively agree with Mouse, as I personally dislike WGGs as a play. (Reasons I don't want to go into here, involving squabbles between SE players around the LG12 era.) But I don't think it's right to say a lynch survivor automatically has suspicion cleared from them, or is as likely to. Lynches tend to ostensibly be more Village involved. Often, a failed lynch just has the Village determined to go for round 2 to get closure or more information. WGGs, when they do work, work because they involve the Elim kill—they rely on the target being soft-cleared because the Elims seem to want them dead. Seeing as this was the reasoning we employed to clear Dragonfly, I feel as though it's stretching it to suggest that WGGs and lynch survivals have equivalent effects. No, and that's why they don't play the same role in the calculus. Anyway, reasons mentioned yesterday stand for Hyena. P.S. I didn't send a night PM because it's been years since I had a Tineye role and wanted to make beautiful art. But I've told two players beforehand what would go into the write-up and can obviously explain a couple of stuff about it. Edit: Whoa there Rhino ninja