Charcoal Hyena

Alright. Fuschia seems to be gone so I'll address you. Sorry if my prior response came off as terse, but I was aiming for a more MU style head-to-head. Isolations have not worked for me this game, so I decided to try another strategy. I felt your interjection risked tainting any read I could get out of Fuschia and was already put off-balance by your revealing of Emerald's scan. Yes, I did not engage with the substance yet, but I assure you I was getting there. I wanted to get a baseline understanding of where Fuschia's mind is before said engagement. I did not like their vote on Turq, and I did not like their response to my not liking their vote on Turq. Even so, I decided to try and understand their position without prior assumptions of their alignment. "Accusation is derived from my own." This is the exact same problem I had with Fuschia's original response. Specifically "you piggybacking and using my suspicion on Onyx to make your own case opposite to Gorilla last cycle." It completely ignores the context of why I followed up their suspicion, the content of my post itself, and the fact that as soon as Onyx gave me a reason to believe they could be village, I dropped it immediately. I do not feel that I am being given the same courtesy; not by Fuschia, you, or now Salmon. I do not feel like you three are considering the possibility that I'm village and are instead reaching for confirmations where there are none. "Uncharacteristically toothless." I would like to point out that I am not the same person I was several years ago, nor am I the person my reputation has left people to believe I am. What I can say is that I am fundamentally not ruthless. Not unless I am confident in my reasoning and I believe the person can take it. I've already gone over this when someone pointed it out on D2, but my read of Saffron was that they could handle a challenge and deliver a response that would help me read them better. Meanwhile, I had a player read on Turquoise (or at least their playstyle was similar enough) that I immediately grouped them into the "early low-hanging fruit exe." I determined an aggressive approach would not work on them, and instead tried to use encouragement to get them more involved so I could actually find a good reason to read them either way. I have done this exact thing several times in the past, but it makes sense that no one remembers the nice version of me. Just the bad and the flashy stuff. "Subsequently ignored the post... making absurdly illogical claim..." This is another problem I have with Fuschia's original response. I am human. I am fallible. Sometimes I accidentally mix up the metal for Soothing and Rioting while role claiming and get executed for it. Sometimes I completely miss a post or forget it even happened because there are 20+ anonymous accounts in the game, a constant influx of posts, and not enough time in the day / spoons in my mental kitchen drawer to contemplate and retain every detail. Sometimes I read a villager as elim, get them executed, then defend an elim and don't help them get executed. I wholeheartedly believe that "wrong" does not mean "evil" and the amount of weight put on it needs to be challenged, if this is the result. I have done the best I can, and if you find what I've done wanting, I believe that says more about the eye of the beholder than anything. "Last Cycle" This legitimately baffles me as an argument because whether or not my conclusion was wrong, I would argue that's the most obv!town spew I've ever had. "...trying to dissuade people..." Mate, I love you to death, I really do. But you are way too fixated on the vote manipulation and I have no dang idea why you're lumping me in with that mess. I completely shut out every conversation that speculates about them unless there is something concrete to work with (vote being moved/removed to save someone, tineye anonymously revealing Seeker scan). If you said anything about riot/smokers, I ignored it, consciously or subconsciously, because I just don't care. It's like Schrodinger's cat to me. Debating if it's a soother or a rioter faking being a soother is as good as debating if the cat's alive or dead. I look at the why, not the how. The only way I'm going to know the how is when I see the flip or read the Master Doc, and most of the time, it's a free agent doing their own thing! And thus do I find your use of the word "paranoia" very apt here because that's exactly how I feel about this entire debacle with you and Salmon. More on that in a bit. "Trying to bait out a village rioter claim in #264." Heck yeah I did! And by the gods, I stand by it! Having said player claim would solve your entire problem right now. Villagers lose because they have little or no information. Elims win because they have more information. Public reveals often benefit Villagers more than Elims, that's a dang fact, except when we're talking important village power roles. Way to let the elims know I'm a Mistborn by the way. Way to let the elims know that I scanned Emerald village. If you're not an elim yourself, frankly, that was terribly irresponsible. "You having made a claim about Emerald Falcon..." I am just so horribly frustrated by this response. Pretend you believe I am a Village Mistborn for a moment. Pretend you believe that I got Seeker N1 and found out Emerald was a Villager. Pretend that Salmon did something absolutely bonkers for an elim, and that Emerald and I mutually agreed to open up our circle and make use out of it. Was I wrong? Would you expect v!Mistborn!me to do any different? Did I ere in my ways? Cause from my PoV, I did everything right. Everything except hide who I am and what I know, apparently. And I thought we didn't make assumptions for alignment based on roles in this meta. Not without concrete evidence, at least. "...and the spiked rioter activity last cycle seeking to avoid an Emerald Falcon flip." Again, making assumptions to justify the paranoid worldview you already have. Have you not considered the rioter could have been a Villager that wanted Turquoise dead and not Emerald? Have you not considered that the elims had no idea about me scanning Emerald and thus didn't act on that information? I really don't see it, my friend, and that kills me because I know you can do better than this. Salmon too. I thought I was frustrated with myself at the start of today's turn because of the flip, but this is a whole other level of tilting. The fact people are more willing to believe extremely convoluted schemes over the simple reality kills me. If you're a village Soother/Rioter who affected yesterday's lynch, you might want to say something to someone now. At this rate they'll be gunning for you next.

I'd prefer Fuschia speak for himself, thank you I'll get to my problems with you later, but I'm trying to solve their slot now

Nope. My intention is to point out how flawed your accusation is in the first place Can you cite examples of how it was "deliberately" inconclusive? Can you show me where I "made sure" we focused more on Saffron rather than Gorilla? Did I fight "tooth and nail" to prevent Turquoise from flipping? At least you seem honest about this take, terribly sub-optimal elim play notwithstanding.

Please allow me a moment to figure out where you're coming from. You believe I should have had a conclusive opinion on Turquoise based on their D1 content alone You believe that I deliberately made Saffron look worse via ISO on N1 in order to prolong the death of a roleless Spiked You believe that I did not realize how bad this would make me look if/when Turquoise ever flipped You believe I continued to search for alternative executions at D3 EoD when Turquoise was in the lead instead of busing them myself or going for one of the counter wagons Are these assumptions correct?

Consider me officially throwing every thought and feeling I've had about this game right out the window. It's abundantly clear that I've been dangerously off track. Regret on its own is unhelpful, however, thus I'm left with a single option to maintain my sanity: starting over. It's certainly better than beating myself up as I have since waking up to this flip. For those of you who may feel obliged to link my alignment to Turq, I advise reconsideration. I was by far their greatest defender. I attempted to keep their spirits up and call them to action when I felt like they were becoming dejected by the number of people speaking out against them. I gave them the benefit of the doubt and in turn cast doubt on others because I felt someone had to, and saw no one else extending that courtesy. I went to great lengths searching for alternatives 2 hours before EoD because I was unhappy with the people in danger and did not want to see another villager die. All of these are facts you can find by reviewing my profile, though you're free to take my expressed reasoning with a pinch of salt, as any good villager should. Yet even now, I stand by my conviction that many of the votes on Turq were just too easy. Unlike Mint, I strongly believe it's unwise to clear slots that voted Turq simply because they secured an elim's death. Turq stopped posting long before they were in the lead, and yet they were online eight hours ago. Turq has previously been saved by vote manipulation, and yet two vote manipulators solidified their death (with Soother!Saffron dead, it's very likely the same player who saved Turq D1 helped kill them D3). Turq was suspected by many people and made no effort to change that, which just about guaranteed their eventual death. And as we now know, Turq was roleless. The situation was ripe for a bus. So much so that I expect multiple elims would cut their losses and join the wagon in a way that would make them look the most good after the flip. Likely Turq stopped posting intentionally to prevent giving us more to analyze for connections. Coral Swan's been on Gorilla since D1 and was the first to vote them D3. IMO undeniably village. Onyx Flamingo adds 2nd vote after Turquoise's final post of the turn. IMO village, but more for our interactions late in the game. Bus unlikely to have been doubled down on at this point. Salmon Meerkat adds 3rd vote with big post for PM-related TMI and general weirdness. The best case against Turq so far, and most likely the turning point in the elim doc. Fuschia Ostrich adds 4th vote an hour later; mentions theory of Flamingo-Gorilla team from D2 that now appears disproven; wants to contribute to vote and says they likely won't be on before rollover. ALARM BELLS RINGING. Elim parking vote on bus and removing themselves from the discussion? Quartz Zebra adds 5th vote after 4 hours of radio silence; no thoughts, only RP. Still pretty dang happy with my vote here. Plenty of time has passed for elims to coordinate the bus and Emerald exe was still close. Allows player to be easily be written off. Spike with power role avoiding scrutiny? Magenta Albatross adds 6th 6 hours later (2 before EoD); "everyone's reasons seem sound" (non-commital language), "I don't see anyone else likely to be exed" (Emerald is only 2 votes behind + at the same time I'm scrambling in thread searching for alternatives). Slot requires further scrutiny; too many weird interactions with Turq in the past to ignore. Amethyst Scorpion adds 7th vote very close to EoD. The most villagery post-Salmon vote I've seen (previously voted Onyx before, apparently to see how people react). Logic is sound not only here but in every post I read from them. One of my top v!reads. Emerald Falcon adds 8th vote at the very last minute. Just under Amethyst in villageryness, though I'm also biased since I'm already reading them as village. Conclusion: at least one elim between Fuschia, Quartz, and Magenta. Potentially two. Would applaud their boldness if it's all three. Amethyst deserves a nomination for the next Mafia Championship if they're a deep wolf. Probably even if they're village. This post was hard enough to motivate myself to do. I'd like to look at the Emerald voters too since I'm fairly confident of Em's alignment, but I've already pushed my limits with this.

Sorry about that I hate misgendering people but I'm very tired, if that wasn't obvious, so I hope you understand. At least I can be satisfied leaving my vote on Quartz. Better a lurking null than any player I read as village, even if I walk this path alone. On the bright side, if Turq dies, I'll never have to read D1 EoD again. Every storm has a rainbow, I suppose.

Oh that's new. Neat. TY I just know if I can reconcile your quick flip on Gorilla when you gut read them as Village for the same reasons I believe they're village. That and the fact you voted Gorilla today for voting Albatross, as seen here: When your first and second posts today said this: At the time of your vote on Gorilla, you only state it's because they're voting Alb (someone you deem an easy target) when earlier today you threw shade on Alb? Bah. Another ninja, and I've consulted with Salmon, who says you're in V meta based on their ID read. Onyx Flamingo. I still hate today's exe targets. I still prefer the Turquoise exe over Emerald for sheer content alone, but that's still going to be a green flip and get us nowhere. Quartz Zebra. Frequent snippets of RP with minimal thread interaction. Enough said. edit: I'm going to bed. (5) Turquoise Gorilla: Coral Swan, Onyx Flamingo, Salmon Meerkat, Quartz Zebra, Fuschia Ostrich (3) Emerald Falcon: Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhino, Oxblood Beagle (2) Oxblood Beagle; Emerald Falcon, Chartreuse Penguin (1) Onyx Flamingo: Amethyst Scorpion, (1) Fuschia Ostrich: Mint Heron (1) Zebra Quartz: Charcoal Hyena

How many hours left until rollover? 2?

I might be conflating that with an old PM conversation or a different account entirely. Will have to verify later, but my independent read of you stands. Onyx Flamingo First Post: Votes Violet Axlotl for asking Coral to join their vote on Gorilla (too eager). Rexamine if flips red. Second Post: Removes Violet vote after Mint joins ("not been lucrative"); votes Mauve Crocodile for being "defensive." As Mint pointed out D2, the pivot is strange. Third Post: OOG and NAI (Note: 1 hour before rollover, present for EoD yet did not respond to Mauve's defense). See: Fuschia's D2 vote for this exact reason. Fourth Post: Speculates complex elim vote manipulation ploy to make Saff look bad (distraction?), gut reads Gorilla as Village but can't say why (village cred?). Fifth Post: Responds to Mint/Fuschia votes. Got sick IRL and thus was mentally checked out (hope you're feeling better m8). Couldn't figure out where Gorilla suspicion was coming from and gut didn't agree. Their gut did say Mauve was their best D1 guess, however. Suspects Falcon (who I trust), questions Albatross for surviving a kill (thinks posts are good and has weird read on them for outing role, but does not encourage exe). Hard agrees with me on Iguana suspicion (we all know how right I was >>) Sixth Post: Votes Iguana for being their top sus, asks Coral for explanation on Gorilla suspicion. Seventh Post: Says they suspect Iguana for D1 tone, vote manipulation, and "I echo a lot of what Hyena said earlier." (Elim who knows I'm completely off base and riding the momentum of my push?) Eighth Post: Doesn't agree with Gorrila being evil (except Gorilla ninja's them and causes a "lowering on my reads"). Despite that, still doesn't think the reasons for voting Gorilla are strong enough. Confronts Coral about reads list from early in the day conflicting with more recent posts. (Lots of Coral interaction specifically? Why them and no one else?) Ninth Post: Asks for VC 10 minutes before rollover (when it's (5)Saff, (3)Octo, (3) Onyx. Tenth Post: Continues to disagree with Coral about Gorilla vote reasoning (clearly fixated on these players). Eleventh Post: "WHAT'S GOING ON ASKDJFHS" - probably a response to Magenta's quick vote/unvote on Octo and Emerald's last minute vote on Iguana. Performative? Twelfth Post: "That's upsetting and very unexpected. I genuinely thought we had an elim." - "Okay, that greatly raises my suspicions on Gorilla now, thanks to vote manip from D1." As soon as Saff dies, pivots onto the other counter wagon they previously defended. Elim setting up back to back misexes? Thirteenth Post: Votes Salmon 1 hour into D3. Suggests Thug killed by inactivity suggests Albatross could be an e!Thug. I've been leaning village on Albatross for a while so again, feels like a seed being sown for a misexe. Fourteenth Post: Suggests Seeker to scan Alb, then invites a scan on them (Elim playing it cool and bluffing?). Edits to immediately point out that offensive smoking could be used, so tells Seeker to do whatever they want. (Trying to seem helpful?) Fifteenth Post: Misread something Fuschia said. "It's 1:30 am I should go to bed." Sixteenth Post: 50 minutes later, still not in bed. Defends himself when Salmon points how their potentially opportunistic suggestion of e!Albatross. Removes Salmon vote and says nothing about the fake out. Why doesn't Onyx have a stronger reaction? Did they see this reveal coming? Seventeenth Post: Votes on Gorilla after Gorilla voted for Albatross. "Bad feeling, alb is an easy target; I'm gonna have to join Swan." Conclusion: Onyx Flamingo. (5) Turquoise Gorilla: Coral Swan, Onyx Flamingo, Salmon Meerkat, Quartz Zebra, Fuschia Ostrich (3) Emerald Falcon: Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhino, Oxblood Beagle (2) Onyx Flamingo: Amethyst Scorpion, Charcoal Hyena (2) Oxblood Beagle; Emerald Falcon, Chartreuse Penguin (1) Fuschia Ostrich: Mint Heron And as I'm literally about to post this, Onyx ninjas me. WHY NOW. THE FIRST HALF OF THIS POST IS THE MOST VILLAGERY THING I'VE SEEN FROM YOU AND YOU POST IT NOW? Granted it's not impossible to fake, but I'm already in a constant state of self-doubt. I was nearly ready to be happy with this and just go to bed As for the second half, it almost makes me want to double down on you. Before Saffron was exed and revealed Village, you were the only person other than me to read Gorilla as V, if only because of gut. Then, immediately after, you use the vote soothed as reasoning to go back on your read of them. I don't like it. That's exactly what I would expect an elim to do at the moment in time (push a third village exe in a row). Turquoise exe is a mistake, Emerald exe is a mistake. If Onyx is Village, that means there hasn't been a single elim on the chopping block this entire game? No. I refuse to believe it. I'm putting my foot down and sticking to my convictions.

I believe this is the current vote count. (5) Turquoise Gorilla: Coral Swan, Onyx Flamingo, Salmon Meerkat, Quartz Zebra, Fuschia Ostrich (4) Emerald Falcon: Amethyst Scorpion, Pearl Chameleon, Plum Rhino, Oxblood Beagle, (2) Oxblood Beagle; Emerald Falcon, Chartreuse Penguin (1) Fuschia Ostrich: Mint Heron I don't have it in me to do significant analysis and will need to call it a night soon, but I'd still like to put my vote somewhere I agree with. Right now, I don't think any of the current exe candidates are it. My opinion on Turquoise hasn't changed. Both his shortlived Albatross vote today and the Amethyst clapback at D2's EoD don't make sense to me from an elim perspective, and their post on N2 about not voting them only because you D1 was V/V/E feels genuine. Even their weirder posts don't feel elim weird. They feel villager missing information weird. The fact I am the only person that has given a semblance of defense for Turquoise further makes me think I'm right. Amethyst stated it was odd that Saffron was the one being lynched over Turquoise D2, but today serves as a testament for why that doesn't work. Had Saffron been given more time in thread, there was a good chance they could have talked their way out of it. Meanwhile, Turquoise's playstyle makes them significantly easier to vote out. Plus, frankly, my suspicion of Saffron began on N1 when I did their ISO, and though proven wrong, I still believe had merit. More than the Turquoise lynch at the time in my opinion, so with the exe already stacking on a villager, why would the elims actively stop it from happening? It doesn't help that I don't have good reads of Onyx, Quartz, or Fuschia. From memory alone, nothing they've done has stood out as villagery. If I were a gambling man, I would bet real money that an elim is among them. Coral Swan's tunnel feels genuine and I have other reasons for leaning village so I doubt it's them, while Salmon's alignment isn't a question to me at this point. Even so, I simply don't agree with the conclusion. That all said, I do not want Emerald lynched today. I have reasons to trust Emerald beyond Salmon's ID read of them being in their Villager meta. Should it come down to it, I will vote on Turquoise to make sure Emerald does not die. I would bet real money on an elim voting here too, especially since I'm only leaning village for Amethyst and Oxblood, which admittedly is somewhat based on Salmon's reads + small mindmelds; Pearl and Plum are N at best. I will acknowledge that's mostly because I've not looked at them with any real scrutiny, but generally if nothing villagery stands out in my memory, it's not a good sign. Oxblood is a comparatively meh option for the aforementioned mindmeld / Salmon read (though now that I was ninja'd by a big post that ends with a fourth Emerald vote, I'm starting to consider if I'd prefer it over Turquoise). If you read our PM transcript, you'll see I found out the plot was fake at that point. The reason for my retraction was exactly what I said, however. Whether Salmon was E or not, my vote there added nothing to the discussion and having seen the thread stagnate, I wanted to encourage others to think beyond the Tineye situation by doing the same. While I'm reading village on Mint for correcting Salmon's mistake D2, I'm slightly leaning village on Fuschia for their fixation on paranoid e!Salmon theories. I've no idea who the player is behind that slot, but I don't know many (any?) players who'd spiral down that rabbit hole unless they were village. Of this group, that leaves me with four exe options that I'd be satisfied with: Onyx, Quartz, Pearl, and Plum. Both Quartz and Plum are objectively the worst by sheer thread presence alone, though Quartz has actually been with us from the start and checked in frequently to drop small RP posts (elim dodging filter?). In contrast, Onyx and Pearl have been a lot more active and have voting histories. Not to mention the fact they've both been exe candidates before, which means a red flip would net more information. Having narrowed this list and started looking back, I've discovered something I believe is worth investigating. 17 minutes before D2's end, vote count is (4) Saffron Iguana, (3) Scarlet Octopus, (3) Onyx Flamingo. 11 minutes before EoD, Azure votes on Saffron, giving them a 2 vote lead over the rest. 8 minutes before EoD, Coral switches vote from Onyx Flamingo to Scarlet Octopus, effectively saving their previous exe target. Coral has said before they trusted Saffron, thus it would be easy for an elim to predict he would move off Flamingo if Saffron was in danger. Could this be an E/E interaction (Azure/Onyx)? The timing certainly fits. Is it a guarantee? By no means. But it's interesting enough to make me want to look closer at Onyx. This is the same post that left me (and some others) leaning village for Mint. Vote is for Flamingo pivoting off Violet Axlotl and onto Crocodile, with two other votes that Mint didn't agree with (gut and PM confusion). Fuschia furthers Mint's vote by adding that despite Mauve giving explanations for Onyx's suspicion, Onyx does not react (despite posting). I haven't be able to find actual reasoning for this vote beyond "want to exe the most out of available options," but relevant nonetheless. This is exactly how I feel right now. @Coral Swan, did I miss it in an earlier post? I'm going to post this now so people have more time to react and respond, though I am not yet finished. Time is ticking and it's already past my self-prescribed bedtime, but I won't be able to sleep unless I'm happy with my vote anyway. In order to do that, I'm going to need to see if I'm independently suspicious of Onyx, so expect a quick-and-dirty ISO soon.

Salmon Meerkat. There's enough votes that I don't see much point in leaving mine there. Going to work on figuring out D2's EoD instead, now that we know Iguana/Octopus are both village.

My top (and only firm) village read is an elim??? Salmon, how could you That said, I always respect a good ole' openwolfing. Enjoy your time while it lasts, my friend The octo kill also really confuses me. I actually like it as a v!Coinshot kill (I wish they hit Saffron N1 instead of Magenta for this exact reason) so we could have executed elsewhere, but better late than never. The fact yesterday was a V/V gives important context, so I'll need to go back and review when I'm more emotionally stable. The really interesting / strange / confusing thing is why the ELIMS would kill the counter wagon too. I feel like we're being toyed with in more ways than one.

Well that's disappointing I really was praying for a red flip. Now I'm back to having no clue what happened D1 and dreading my inevitable reevaluation. For what it's worth, I'm sorry I couldn't resolve your slot another way or sooner, Saffron, and for my role in your execution =\ I wish I could to do something productive right now, but quickly skimming is the best I can do in my current state. My BPD has decided I've been manic for long enough and swung back to depressive. I'm trying to pull myself together but I'm sure ya'll know how it is. Low energy + motivation + willpower and mental breakdowns galore. Usually the worst is the first two days and then I get numb enough to be semi-human-ish again, though I'll see how I feel after a good night's sleep and try to be active tomorrow, even if it only means short posts and convos. I hope everyone is well.

Again, I don't want to pressure you! I ascribe to the belief that the most important thing in these games is that we all have fun, and that often means different things for each person. Alas, we still have to collectively solve the game, and since D1 you've undoubtedly become entangled in it besides, a good game show host should be ecstatic! Not dejected! edit: On that note, I'm dead tired. I'll try to set an alarm for 1-2 hours before rollover to see if anything new shakes out + if there's good reason for me to change my vote, but overall I'm currently comfortable with my vote and may just keep sleeping. Though I've felt less sick today (especially compared to a horrible yesterday), my schedule has been severely out of whack.

I'm actually glad you just pinged me because it made me realize how late it is. I don't think I'm going to be able to finish the reads list I've been working on, but I'll post what I've done so far and try to answer your query. Unfinished D2 Reads: Both your section and Turquoise's section might be enough to satisfy. WRT Saffron, I absolutely can see Iguana's play style reasoning being an explanation for their behavior, but unlike Turquoise, I'm being told that's what it is rather than what my gut is saying + where the D1 Wagonomics is pointing. My vote against them now was to add pressure and see how they respond, since it only seems like they vote when their life is at risk, although it also comes from a place of maximizing information. Many people have commented on Saffron one way or another, and after spending so much of my time mentally spiraling around D1's EoD and their role in it, there's definitely a degree of me just wanting to clear the slot for my own sanity's sake. That said, I haven't gotten to their most recent post (or the last 10 for that matter, since I've been focusing on my reads list). Skimming it quickly now, I'm glad to see them consolidating their reads, even if I don't like their uncharitable take of my case against them, but I'll need to read into it deeper before I see if it impacts my feelings.

I'm glad you brought this up because it's something I didn't really think about enough while looking at their posts in a vacuum. Although I began my isolations with no preconceptions of either player, some naturally developed as I sifted through their content. In Saffron's case, I found them quickwitted and well-articulated (shorter, more deliberate use of wording) in more than just their frequent puns, which allowed me to look at their posts with greater scrutiny. As a result of their style, I feel like I understand Saffron better than Turquoise. However, what I failed to understand about Saffron was their constant "heckling" of others without voting, which I felt made little sense from a village perspective. They've since responded to this during N1, which I'll address in a moment, but as that trend continued and by the time Saffron had finally voted, it stood out to me as a red flag. That + knowing they were saved by vote manipulation + seeing they voted for Mauve (a Villager) + the weirdness with not voting Gorilla when Gorilla just voted them led to a firmer conclusion. On the other hand, my progression through Gorilla's posts was a very different experience. While they did withhold their vote for a really long time, Gorilla's posts were never analysis-heavy or confrontational. My impression is they were more focused on having fun than solving, which is fairly standard on D1 for players when so little concrete information is known. Their playstyle specifically reminds me of a few people I know who get executed early for similar reasons (low-hanging fruit), which I've seen flip village too often. That + their detached EoD with no apparent fear of death (something often seen with elims) + the fact they didn't vote for Mauve, the only known villager, leaves me feeling neutral about them. Gorilla still very well could be an elim, but at that current moment, I didn't see enough evidence for it; especially not in comparison to Saffron. That all said, I do still want to look at the votes against Turquoise and Saffron both, to see if other people saw anything that I didn't. Mauve Crocodile --> Saffron Iguana (Because "Saffron has said a good amount and I'm still left with no read" and wants to "see what happens") Turquoise Gorilla --> Saffron Iguana (Replaces their Coral vote from 5 hours ago with a Saffron vote 4 minutes before rollover with the explanation "I really don't want to see either croc or me exed... I've been reading Saffron pretty null, but I don't want either me or my top village read to die here.") Saffron Iguana --> Mauve Crocodile (Follows up an Albatross reactionary vote [7 minutes before rollover] with an unexplained Crocodile vote [2 minutes before rollover]. What's most notable is that they ask Turquoise [who just voted for them] to compromise on Croc [who Turq just said they read village], which suggests they don't know about the impending vote manipulation and want to sway more people into saving their life. Just comparing Turquoise and Saffron's votes alone leaves me feeling better about the former (presented logic + consistency). Even more since Saffron voted for a known villager, while Turquoise voted for an unknown. Looking at them both, E/E doesn't feel likely, while V/E and V/V remain possible. Pearl Chameleon --> Saffron Iguana Without the context of their original vote, this doesn't say much, so let's go back. Because this vote was so early in the game, it lacks the context of the future. It was actually this post that I mindmelded with Pearl at the start, since I also considered voting Saffron for the exact same reason during my first read-through of the thread. Is Saffron focusing on past distrubition inherently elim? Absolutely not, since many villagers think about these things on D1 all the time. That doesn't make it particularly productive, however, and could be deliberately used by an Elim to distract the thread. It seems to me nothing Saffron did throughout the day alleviated Pearl's concerns, which makes sense because I felt worse about them by the end of the day. Once again, "said a good amount and I am still left with no read." While I personally found their challenges against other players were well thought-out, they never went anywhere (no votes), which is what made me lean elim. To me, it felt like an elim throwing stuff out and seeing what sticks in the minds of others without ever committing themselves. 14 minutes before rollover, Magenta deliberately ties Saffron with both Turquoise and Mauve for information, which actively puts their life at risk. Saffron fires back with a vote on Magenta, then immediately bargains with Turquoise to vote Mauve with them after Turqoise votes against then. Both of these votes come with very little explanation and feel panicky, which further supports my elim read. Now, for the other wagon... Very early in the turn, Violet lays the first vote on Turquoise for quoting a bunch of people and only responding to one. A reasonable D1 vote from my PoV, but at that stage in the game, nothing I would consider damning with my current read of Turquoise's playstyle. Coral react votes to Turquoise voting them, pointing out the irony of the reason; Swan was previously voted for voting their null read, while Turquoise reads Swan null and thus is open to voting them. While I agree that I don't agree with the earlier votes against Swan, I find Gorilla's vote consistent with their playstyle, which could believably come from either alignment. Scarlet doesn't offer any reasoning for their vote, so I can only assume Gorilla is null- for them and would rather see them dead over the others at risk. Amethyst doesn't like Saffron but also doesn't like the last minute push on them. Says they don't like getting ties on purpose, but votes Turquoise for village reading Pearl/Mauve early and thus limiting their options. Having looked at this all, my isolations still feel accurate. None of these votes against them are based on incredible evidence, yet Saffron's EoD appears scrambly to me, which makes sense for an elim who didn't know they'd be at risk of getting exed so late in the turn. In one of the Mafia Championship games I participated in, something like this happened on D1 with an elim, so I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happened here. Meanwhile, the Turquoise wagon still feels like a low-hanging fruit situation, which simply means I need more from that slot before I can move it out of Neutral. Now, to address Saffron's response to my isolation. I'll admit, up until you pointed this out, I completely forgot about Cosmetic Roles and never considered it as a factor in gameplay (I assumed it'd be isolated to RP). While that does perhaps explain your playstyle from a villager perspective, it also makes for a very convenient way for e!You to write suspicious actions off. Either way, the reality is you helped execute a villager, and nothing you've done yet has given me enough reason to believe you're village. The fact remains that you are an unknown counter wagon that was saved by vote manipulation, which means your flip will provide critical information regarding D1s events regardless. Thus, Saffron Iguana. If you are indeed a villager, I implore you to show me it with your actions. It's the second half of round two now and you haven't voted. Who do you want to see lynched most and why? I've seen you Heckle, now let me see Helpful! edit: Now that I finally got that done with, I'm going to comb through N1/D2 again and figure out my reads list. These isolations have left me with the unintended side effect of taking me out of the present, and thus I'd like to zoom out and figure out the broader picture.

Unfortunately, it's time I get some food and medicine in my system (yay aching head and burning throat) and take a break from slouching over my keyboard like a gremlin. If I don't end up napping, I'll continue mulling over things from my phone. For now, I'll leave us with a vote count. (2) Magenta Albatross: Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla, (1) Saffron Iguana: Emerald Falcon, (1) Azure Mouse: Salmon Meerkat, (1) Fuschia Ostrich: Oxblood Beagle, (1) Turquoise Gorilla: Coral Swan,

Fair enough. Our different perspectives on vigilante roles might be the main factor here. Personally, I think a vig should never shoot unless it gives the village a lot of information or they're very confident they'll kill an elim, which likely emboldens my paranoia. The frequency of early misexecutions + elim kills usually reduce village numbers too quickly for comfort as is. I've been there myself and doomed village wins because I was too eager to use my kills, so that's undoubtedly a factor too. For me, I don't want to rule it out too early, because in the case there is an e!Coinshot, the longer we go neglecting that possibility just gives them more time to outnumber us. Better safe than sorry, etc etc.

You've lost me a bit here. While I definitely agree the existence of an e!Coinshot increases the odds of a v!Coinshot, it also could be justified by a large number of Village Thugs and Lurchers. My real hang-up is "With only one kill, I'm assuming that Coinshot is a villager." Why? I can think of many reasons for a v!Coinshot to refrain from killing on N1, but only one for an e!Coinshot (to not tip their hand). Why do you think a v!Coinshot would target Albatross? If a v!Coinshot is willing to kill on N1, why do you think they ignored yesterday's counter wagons? You very well could be right, if only because an e!Coinshot is an insanely powerful asset (*MR10 Flashbacks Intensify*) which requires heavy balancing, but the fact that you discount it so easily implies you know something I don't.

Turquoise Gorilla Opening Post: Cosmetic role RP. Comments on large number of players ("this time"), and seeds the question "what do you think is the village to elim distro?". NAI in isolation. Second Post: 30 minutes later, gives their own answer to said question. Believes "6-7 elims; 6 if they have a Coinshot or Mistborn, 7 if there isn't. About once of each role in Village, give or take one or two. Likely one elim kill-role (Coinshot/Mistborn) and 2-3 other roles." Overall, I find this kind of content NAI, especially with how many other players were discussing this already. Third Post: Quotes 6 people who answered their question (including their own post) and determines theirs is the best. Of the rest, they only comment on Saffron Iguana's for bringing up a past game, which I've already stated is not productive, from my point of view. Given how early it is in the turn still, I'm willing to give the benefit of a doubt, but so far I've yet to see Turqoise attempt to solve alignments. Fourth Post: Replies "Hehe" to Pearl's Torquoise/Tortoise pun. Nothing else after an hour. Bleh. Fifth Post: Three hours later, only asks for a Vote Count. At this point, Turquoise has not voted, which isn't surprising since they haven't expressed any significant thoughts on other players to suggest solving. Will continue this line of thought in the next line. Sixth Post: A half-hour later, after Mauve provided the VC: "I think I'm going to join the Swan train. Mostly reading them as null, maybe mildly elim" (does not say why), then goes on to say "I really don't see the reason for most of the other trains; Chameleon and Crocodile seem village in PMs, and none of Hyena's posts stood out" (ouch!). I'm not a big fan of the PM reasoning since that could easily be faked via E/E, but at the very least, that's not the case for confirmed village Croc. Without more context for why they feel this way about said players, I don't really know what to glean from this. The fact that they're only now voting with 4 and a half hours before rollover makes it even more of a ???. Will need to see if they remain true to their reads. Seventh Post: Coral Swan brings up the irony of Turquoise voting them while a null read when most of the votes on Coral are for voting for their null reads. Gorilla responds by saying that's not why they voted at least; is gut reading Coral elim and believes starting another train is futile due to how late it is. I'm now very curious WHO they would have voted for, if it weren't so late in the turn, and WHY they didn't do so sooner. While the reasoning for the vote is believably village, the timing of the vote leaves me Leaning Elim Eighth Post: 2 hours and 20 minutes later (2 hours from turnover), they only post an updated vote count and mention how many votes there are). Does not even seem concerned by the fact they're now in the lead with 3 votes. No attempt to push anyone else suggests they either don't care about getting lynched (Village?) or they have access to vote manipulation + ally votes in the wings (could be V or E depending). Ninth Post: 4 minutes prior to turnover, votes on the newest train, Saffron Iguana, to save themselves. Says they've read Iguana as null so far, and that they don't want Croc (their top village read) to die. Reasonable for a Villager, but again, I wonder why they didn't try to get votes off themselves and their top village read since their last post. Again, I see no real desire to solve the game while they're active enough to impact the execution last minute. Much like my read of Post #7, could either be a Follower village archetype or an opportunistic Elim. Due to how little they've interacted with Saffron up to this point, my previous E/E theory has less merit, and I am beginning to suspect they're a Soother themselves, which could explain their prior nonchalance. Tenth Post (N1): Mostly NAI cosmetic role RP with minimal commentary on their top village reads death (*sobs* + "not a good development). Doesn't leave me feeling any better about the slot. Eleventh Post: Responds to Saffron's @ regarding them ignoring the vote manipulation. Says they've been lacking the motivation to post, but feels both vote manipulations are elims, or perhaps 1:1. Acknowledges Saffron and them were the brunt of most suspicion and thus suspects elim vote manipulators would have reason to interfere regardless. Soother who doesn't want to implicate themselves? Whether or not that's true, my gut is leaning paranoid Villager here. Twelfth Post: Last post responds to Emerald's question about Pearl, who was one of the early wagons. Only says their confused, which is ironic because that's exactly how I feel about this slot! In conclusion: I really don't know, due to some contradictory gut reads + very minimal player interactions. I certainly feel better about Turquoise than I do Saffron, but that might be impacted by the comparable lack of engagement. @Turquoise Gorilla can you tell me who you would have voted for other than Swan, had "starting other trains" not been "futile"? edit: I plan on looking at the votes against Turquoise next to see if that helps me understand them better, I.E. if anyone was really onto something or if it was a typical D1 low-hanging fruit wagon, which is my current impression.

Checking in to keep ya'll informed I ended up falling asleep on my keyboard last night while isolating Turquoise and lost my progress to the refresh monster, so that's still my top priority. Hopefully it will be quicker the second time around, but I've also got a lot more work ahead of me. I'm still mulling over Saffron's response to my analysis, but plan to resolve that soon too, and I'd love to get my reads list updated based on everything that's happened since my last one before I'm confident enough to place a vote. A lot has happened and with so many anonymous players, I've found myself forgetting about slots entirely or blending a few together, which has been a major headache when trying to organize my thoughts off-paper. Regarding Albatross, their Thug claim is not at all surprising, for the reasons Salmon highlighted above, and from my perspective, welcome. In a v!Albatross scenario, their claim does nothing to benefit the elims, who inherently have more information than the rest of us and can infer more from their survival alone. Meanwhile, villagers begin the game knowing nothing more than their own role / alignment, which means every data point revealed in thread is a non-insignificant piece of the puzzle that we need to solve. My greatest concern isn't even if Albatross is village or elim, but whether the Coinshot is village or elim. Though some players advocated for village Coinshots shooting N1, I would expect them to be more reluctant, and if in the case they did shoot, I would expect it'd have been one of yesterday's counter wagons. Not Albatross, who's largely been flying under the radar (as far as my memory serves me), whereas an e!Coinshot would likely shoot regardless and likely target someone low-profile in order to avoid confirmation. I'll isolate Albatross's posts soon and consider why a v!Coinshot would go for them over anyone else on N1, because I'm having trouble wrapping my head around it, as well as the worst-case scenario of a WGG, which my gut says is unlikely (albeit still worth investigating). TL;DR I'm not too suspicious of Albatross, but I am looking warily at the Coinshot who attacked them. In the event the Coinshot is an elim, I worry that it could be a distraction, and that anyone who pushes for their lynch (Chartreuse?) is using their survival to justify not looking at yesterday's counter wagons (Saffron, Turquoise, and to a lesser extent, myself, which I can personally rule out).

To begin, I'm going to focus on the Saffron Iguana and Turquoise Gorilla execution groupings. Because I'll be doing isolation analysis of each player involved, I may not be able to get to the non-participants until later. It appears that one of the four voters here were Soothed by a third party or attempted to Riot someone themselves, perhaps not realizing they'd lose their vote in the process, only for the Rioting to fail. In the first case, it would appear like Saffron was being saved by an ally; or framed, for the more charitable take. In the second case, it would seem a voter was very confident in their read and willing to throw their role's weight behind it. We know Mauve wasn't doing it to self-prez at least, though if either Magenta, Pearl, or Turquoise are indeed a Rioter, they may want to consider admitting to the mistake so we can rule out Elim!Soother interference saving Saffron. As important as role safety is, that context could help us solidify multiple reads. Saffron Iguana Opening Post: Team number and role distro speculation. NAI to me. Second Post: Responds to Coral's own distro thoughts (calls Coral insightful). Continues the discussion, which remains NAI. Insightful comment could be a smol pocketing attempt, but it seems genuine enough, given Saffron's interest in the topic. Third Post: Responds to Pearl's vote on them (for focusing on past rule distros for speculation on this game). I find Saffron's response very nonchalant, like they were a duck and Pearl's vote was water on their back. I really liked their comeback question as well, which I read as Saffron genuinely trying to solve the game. Lean Village. Fourth Post: Began by responding to my reads list, suggesting me to use a quote box in the future (NAI). Further challenges Pearl on their initial strong argument followed by a fairly easy retraction, expecting that a villager who put that much effort into explaining their vote would make them push further after being challenged. I can't help but agree that something is off (which I'll figure out in my Pearl isolation later) which further supports my Village read of Saffron. The latter half is mostly about what roles they believe are the best for elims and village. Fifth Post: Corrects themselves on a previous mix-up with roles, then asks Salmon Meerkat about the identity of who tried phishing their role. Replies to Violet Axlotl's vote on Turquoise Gorilla for quoting a bunch of people and saying nothing about the posts. It's another good reason to look side-eyed at someone, though it's worth noting they didn't join the vote. They even use apologetic language, as if dismissing the weirdness completely. Willing to give the benefit for now, but this could point to an E/E interaction. Sixth Post: Says they "lichen" Mauve Crocodile's attention to detail (reading Mauve as village or smol pocketing again?). Explains that they assume "any Coinshot in play will shoot tonight, except perhaps for a hesitant village one, and if there is a Spiked Coinshot, there will also be a village one, so potentially three total kills." What stands out to me is that Saffron's wording almost expects a Spiked Coinshot kill, since a Villager Coinshot was the "except perhaps" afterthought. If that ends up being true, this may be Suspicious in retrospect. (Also quotes Amber Vulture about people thinking about the endgame and then correlates it to how optimistic a player is, which I find NAI). Seventh Post: Directly confronts Magenta Albatross on a hedgy post ("I don't know who to vote for, but we'll need someone with a lot of votes to prevent vote manipulation... so I won't jump on anything yet"). Says they don't like how Magenta appears to have explicitly planned to vote late in the round. While I agree, I once again wonder why Saffron didn't follow up the confrontation with a vote. I'm not certain which way to lean here; will need to see what happens next. Eighth Post: Challenges me this time on not addressing Pearl before going to bed, concerned that I was delaying a vote to set up elim shenanigans. I responded to this earlier, agreeing that's a fair read, though I provided the true reasoning. Ends the post with a quote of Chartreuse Penguin about reads list, telling Coral Swan to take notes. Again, no votes. ??? Ninth Post: Another pun, this time to Turquoise, with no game-related comment added (???). Continues to challenge Pearl Chameleon, but this time for setting up an early self-preservation vote with 9 hours left in the turn and only two votes on them. Still doesn't vote or indicate they plan on it, which I find odd given how active they've been on top of how much time they have just addressed is left. This makes me think Saffron knows they will be on later in the turn and holding their vote, which is odd considering they accused me of the same thing earlier. At this point, the trend is becoming more Suspicious. I'm hoping to see a vote from them soon, because whatever alignment they are, I expect its timing will be telling. They also end the post saying they believe Amber Vulture and Salmon Meerkat are both Village for their committed analysis. Tenth Post: Respects Pearl's commitment to their read by voting for... Saffron. Addresses Mauve Crocodile's vote on them (has no read of Saffron despite their activity) by pointing out they haven't yet consolidated reads or voted. Adds that they are suspicious of Octopus for all their RP posts, then continues to talk about whether Tineyes will be village or elim. It's worth noting this post is 2 hours before rollover. 7 hours after their last post. And still no vote! Leaning Elim. Eleventh Post: Responds to Emerald Falcon's own isolation of Saffron's posts, which points out things I didn't, and also suggest Saffron being an eliminator (steering village perception of elim roles, which I didn't even process because my brain no likey role speculation). Saffron says they're impressed, and defends themself by saying "unless I talk about another player, this is all NAI." Regarding Pearl Chameleon, they claim to "imagine the Spiked do have some idea of a potential fall person" and believe that Pearl was their early choice. Again, this doesn't look good, since Saffron themselves is withholding their vote and barely commenting on the execution candidates. Leaning Elim with a possible E/E interaction with Pearl. Twelfth Post: During the last hour, Saffron finally votes on Magenta Albatross... with barely any explanation. Just a quote and a "Y". I'm very confused. Thirteenth Post: Immediately switches their vote to Mauve Crocodile to self prez when Turquoise Gorilla voted for them. The turn ends shortly thereafter. As we now know, Mauve ends up being Village, and Saffron is missing a vote. Overall, I'm finding the bad of their later content heavily outweighs the good I found in their early posts. Lots of challenging statements, as if poking for weaknesses, while never settling on any vote until the very last hour (neither of which have explanations) and when they're about to die. The fact Saffron went to Mauve over Turquoise when Turquoise just voted for them and said they didn't want Mauve dead is... weird, especially considering their vote on Magenta seemed to be a reaction for Magenta voting Saffron. Could Turquoise have known a Saffron vote was going to be Soothed, and thus put their vote where it wouldn't matter for village cred, while Saffron placed their vote to protect Turquoise? I'm not sure how the weirdness can be explained otherwise, and if correct, would imply that Saffron is a power-role worth protecting over Turquoise. In summary, Saffron's whole Day 1 has severely dropped them in my estimation to an Elim Read, with implications that Turquoise could be an opportunistic ally. This alone has taken longer than I expected, so I'll post it now and continue working on my next isolation. Though I originally planned on doing Saffron's three voters, the weirdness with Turquoise has convinced me to check their posts first, which is helpful considering they were the other train.

I certainly understand where you're coming from on "potential to be bent in any direction," however, I'd like to point out the use of the word "potential." You call it "huge hedgey" but to me, being hedgy is going back and forth on reads, which I've not done I completely agree that players need to look out for suspicious changes to other's reads, but I don't believe I hedged or that people should be voted for something that might happen in the future Either way, our prolonged interaction has left me feeling mostly positive about you. It's clear to me you're more paranoid rather than being nitpicky about my reads themselves. I would expect an elim to point out specifics or push for my lynch more aggressively, rather than get caught up in hypothetical scenarios or preconceptions and then leave it to fate. That said, I'm curious what thoughts you have on the rest of the execution options, as well as if any of their voters stand out. In the meantime, I'll continue working on a more detailed reads list / analysis of recent events.

Ah, I think I see where you're coming from now. I think I mentally put more weight into the first half than the second half because the second is based on a hypothetical future. Whether or not I end up being non-committal can only be determined by further development of my reads lists and where I vote going forward, based on the context of said reads. What I could do, however, was respond to Chartreuse's faulty preconception of reads lists by highlighting my own mindset behind them

Okay, here's the post where Chartreuse voted for me. Chartreuse voted for me because I made a reads list, which elims apparently do to get early village cred. I challenged this by saying I began working on a reads list with no knowledge of my alignment. I'd have done it either way, because that was my plan from the start. My response later was as follows: My entire point was, don't judge anyone's post because of something silly like "it's done in this particular way, which elims have done in the past." Judge it for its content, in the here and now. What is the player saying? Does it make sense from their point of view? Does it remain consistent as time goes on? From my experience, that'll more likely net you an elim.