Charcoal Hyena

Unrelated, but I only just got the Meerkas pun :P.

My brain hurts >:( Okay.......... So first of all. Kasimir left me with what as best I can figure is most or all that he knew, as well as a record of which other people were also in the loop for each piece of knowledge. So that the rest of the village isn't left in the dark, I'm going to share a few things: 1. For all that he's making a big deal of scans, Plum Rhinoceros is not actually scanned. Scanning is still a limited resource. He's in a pretty darn similar boat to Swan, where he was trusted based on factors other than a scan. I do trust Rhinoceros (mostly), and this doesn't particularly detract from the fact that Swan looks suspicious, but it's still a relevant piece of context for everyone to have. 2. From what I can see, it sure does look like Swan straight-up lied in one of the PMs I am in about the status of communications with the Lurcher. Which, obviously, isn't a great look at all. 3. Swan claimed a specific role to Meerkat. While there was little reason to doubt the claim at the time, that role claim hasn't been mechanically confirmed, and it wasn't the same as Swan's current claim of Thug. This makes the case against Swan look rather more damning, I think. Because while Swan can explain away making fake role claims to people they didn't trust, they've been somewhat vocal about having been on Meerkat's side, so it wouldn't make a lot of sense to lie to Meerkat. In conclusion, Swan is probably spiked, but I'm willing to hear out an explanation if there's a good one. In particular, the Lurcher claim has yet to speak up, which could potentially shed quite a bit of light on the situation, one way or the other.

Pretty sure you just slipped and confirmed that the spiked don't consider Coral Swan a teammate, but that's none of my business.

You could accurately say that killing Flamingo took most of this year.

Oh shoot. Good work guys!

Cool, have a village point.

Where I'm at though is that those turns have already been wasted. In which case my question is: does getting a Flamingo flip actually un-waste them? Assuming Flamingo is spiked, what does that actually mean going forward? Assuming Flamingo is village, what does that actually mean going forward? If you feel strongly that we need a Flamingo flip, you should have at least one or two ideas in mind about how it would affect your reads, right? This question goes for everyone else too :P. If nothing else maybe figuring out how to use the Flamingo flip is something to do :P.

Why not just get a Lion flip then?

Yeah, I was missing that context. I admit that's at least a little weird. Why is that so hard to believe though? Why wouldn't the spiked waste everyone's time by doing this? It gains them much, and costs next to nothing, assuming they have the relevant abilities to do it (which at this point we know nearly for certain that they do have the relevant abilities, in some way, shape, or form). Is it really that tinfoily to see a world where a villager survives a coinshot kill and the spiked elect to keep that person alive for longer so that we get to the situation we're in right now? Even assuming the spiked are cowards who are totally absorbed with self-preservation and don't care about doing damage to the village, self-preservation is a coin with two sides. There's self-preservation from coinshots, but there's also self-preservation from the lynch. If they were more worried about the lynch than the coinshot, than making a bid to force us to lynch Flamingo this cycle is quite a solid defense against that. Specifically what would this damage consist of though? I'm not proposing that we clear Flamingo, just that we lynch somebody else. Because I don't think the case against them is actually very strong. And despite everyone saying they would have a difficult time proceeding without a Flamingo flip, I don't actually see how a Flamingo flip is very helpful, informationally speaking. Yes, we've been repeatedly denied a Flamingo flip, but do we actually want one in the first place? Especially on the heels of an uninformative vote last cycle? Isn't that the same wager you make with every lynch ever though? I'm pretty sure at this point that nothing I can do will turn aside a Flamingo lynch mob, but I'm not going to change my mind just because of that If this were a situation where Flamingo is a spiked trying to survive as long as possible and do as much damage on the way out, why did they just roll over and barely post anything this cycle? Why aren't they setting up some kind of mess for after they flip red, or defending themselves, or trolling their heart out in one of the most troll-worthy situations imaginable? The behavior of Flamingo doesn't align with the headspace that the spiked would likely have to be in right now, if Flamingo were spiked and they were trying to make the most of it. Can we though? Crocodile was pretty much already sentenced to death once Mouse announced that they had been scanned as spiked. The other spiked might as well jump on the bandwagon ASAP, right?

Yeah, that's understandable. I still feel like they're a villager, though This cycle, either the spiked are sitting back and letting their lurches waste even more village time and resources on an ML, or they're trying to milk as much as they possibly can out of a spiked inevitably dying after catching the ire of a coinshot. I think there is broad agreement that it's one of those two possibilities, and that we can't be entirely sure which. And this cycle feels a little bit too passive and straightforward (at least right now) for it to be the second one, in my opinion. I want to vote for somebody else on pure gut but I'm also not sure how much good that'll do when it's D5. I'll probably be able to do the village more good by spending my efforts on catching up on the game more, so that I'll eventually have actually well-reasoned suspicions of my own to share. I feel like I'm making good progress in that direction.

If Flamingo is evil, what does spiked Flamingo get out of saying they used pewter to survive N2 without it being true? Maybe there's something but I can't really think of anything. So even if they're evil, I disagree that they're probably lying about this just because they're evil. There is also a reason why I think Flamingo is telling the truth that has nothing to do with their alignment. On all of the nights after N2, there is an obvious reason why somebody might decide to protect Flamingo (they are an obvious coinshot target and that is reason enough for a spiked), but on N2 there isn't any such reason that I know of. To survive an attack by being lurched, somebody had to have correctly guessed that Flamingo would be a target for an attack. On the other hand, pewter just happens, and doesn't require anyone to have made a clever guess. So that version of events feels more believable. One thing I had not considered is that Flamingo could definitely be a mistborn who just happened to draw pewter on N2. In that case, claiming Thug would make a lot of sense. And I could believe in a role distribution that gives the spiked 3 mistborn or 2 mistborn and a lurcher. So my original argument about roles analysis is not quite as solid. [Edit: Although this version of events does require multiple mistborn to have drawn exactly the right metal on the right cycles to screw the village, which does start to stretch plausibility in my opinion, even if it is a real possibility.] Still... My gut says that Flamingo is actually village :(. As crazy as it probably sounds, we don't need to get a Flamingo flip to proceed with useful analysis. We already know that the coinshot is probably village and the ones protecting Flamingo are probably spiked. As far as I can tell, Flamingo flipping one way or another doesn't actually change any of this. Practically speaking, a Flamingo flip doesn't actually feel very helpful, even if cheating death 3 times is patently absurd and worthy of smiting :P.

Okay, I'm finally starting to understand whey everyone is so surprised and confused by the fact that you're still alive :P. Regardless of anything else, I do believe you're a genuine Thug, and that this is what saved you N2. So the question is what happened on the subsequent nights. Clearly, some mixture of Lurchers and Mistborn are responsible (either 2 lurchers, 2 mistborn, or 1 and 1). And it seems overwhelmingly likely that the spiked are the ones who saved you. I really cannot imagine a single half-sensible reason why multiple villagers would make a concerted effort to screw with a presumed village coinshot and prevent an alignment flip from happening. Giving the spiked two Lurchers sounds quite crazy at first, but on second thought, I don't think it's very unbalanced. I don't actually think we can reasonably afford to discard that possibility, given the history of trollish role distributions in Tyrian Falls games. But are the spiked protecting a spiked, or just wasting the village's time by eating up coinshot kills and now a lynch? Both are possible. This is where things get interesting, because we know almost for certain that the spiked have [2 mistborn, 2 lurchers, or 1 mistborn 1 lurcher]. And at the extreme peril of making decisions based on roles analysis in a Tyrian Falls game, I really can't easily see a spiked team that includes a Thug on top of those existing roles. Because the reason to include a Thug is mainly to balance against a village Coinshot, but Mistborn and Lurchers both do that already. Even if our wonderful GMs wanted to design a role distribution that was unexpected, I believe they would still take this sort of thing into account. So I think there is a good reason that the idea of a spiked Thug is a bit weird. On top of that, this cycle's vote is almost comically unanimous so far :P. I gather that last cycle was very similar, because Crocodile was scanned as a spiked. Therefore: I don't think so. Even though it's risky, I'm going to play Flamingo's advocate and say the current lynch actually shouldn't happen. Sadly, I'm still behind on a lot of reading, and I don't think I understand the current non-Flamingo-related situation nearly well enough to suggest an alternative (yet).

So there's still basics of this game that I'm still coming to terms with, but I do have one probably important question to ask: Flamingo apparently claimed to be a Thug. Is Flamingo saying their pewter saved them the first time they were attacked, or the second time? ( @Onyx Flamingo )

Fight me!

Oh shoot Pretend I knew that.

Understandable, thank you. This is a good summary. How do we know Flamingo was the coinshot target and not the spiked target though? The coinshot knows, but we don't. So ultimately it's up to the coinshot. If they attacked Flamingo two nights in a row with no dice, they probably don't need us to tell them to kill Flamingo, right? I'm liking these profile pic arts by the way.

The deed was done, and amidst ragged cheers, the obligator was dead. Somebody procured a bloody spike and held it aloft for all to see, parading it around as clear evidence that the execution was just. There was nothing left to witness here. Aylia slipped away from the torch lights into the night, pulling her cloak more tightly around her to ward off the cold touch of the mists. The cloak was obviously expensive, a parting gift from her parents before she left on her ill-advised pilgrimage. This town was the source of her nightmares. She was increasingly certain of it. The signs on the buildings shifted, the people changed... But the wood and stone remembered. She would remember the layout of Dyring's bar no matter what sign was on it. Somehow, this rebuilding town was the place where it all started. If she strained her ears, she could almost hear it. Something out in the mists, almost calling to her. She moved towards the sound. It lead down a dark alley. Something rustled behind her. Aylia opened her eyes and looked around, trying to discern any movement or presence in the darkness. But there was nothing, just the empty rooftop and the night sky above. "Is anyone there?" she called. Aylia whirled around. A translucent clawed appendage reached for her. A pair of mismatched animal skulls leered at her from within a seemingly endless amorphous mass. It was a mistwraith! An honest-to-Lord-Ruler mistwraith!! She screamed. Several minutes later, Aylia stepped out of the alley. She carried herself differently, and she had a giddy look on her face. Every now and then, she stopped to examine her hands, or pinch herself, or attempt to do a cartwheel for seemingly no reason. "You have no idea how long it's been since I've had access to a proper body. Oh, this is going to be fun." Hi! Somebody made the dubious decision of putting me at the helm of this account for the time being, and by jove I aim to make the most of it! So what in tarnation is happening anyways? Apparently I (and everyone else) voted for an eliminator last turn? I (and everyone else) must be very intelligent. What's the deal with Flamingo? And, related to that, why are we voting during the night?

Full disclosure, the family situation has gotten worse and I'm really struggling to be active here due to increasing rl pressure. I'm trying my best >> Croc upvote that post when this is over

WHAT SERIOUSLY Rest in peace, friend

It was a roundabout way of saying

:I am a window, and with me a twin. Beauty is within me, though not what is seen when looking in. In hard times I flow, but in good I glow: Edit: Credit: someone else

How very astute of you, good sir. Unfortunately, one of us must propose a solution Like, based on his reactions? Just a gut feeling?

What did you know was going to happen? Edit: This title is very fitting >>

Maybe I don't vote. but I like Cham Lion is next

That's exactly what an evil person would say :eyes: Gotta say Cham has felt really explanatory but not evil per se Lion has been stating facts Flamingo has existed