Chartreuse Penguin

MMM mindmeld moment

Gg village gang I accidentally fell asleep around 3 hours before rollover, but I did review Oxblood’s posts before that and decided they were still a little sus. Knew my vote was useless there though. edit: Village: Zebra, Swan, Meerkat, Alb, Scorp(?), Heron Leaning elim: Cham, Vulture, Melon Elim: Hyena, Beagle, Rhino(?) Look closer at: Flamingo, Falcon I too was pondering over the possibility of an e/e exe between Gorilla and Falcon. Given the lack of an expected Soothe in Gorilla's defence, this might be a plausible scenario.

Nah it’s neither of those (in fact I haven’t even tried to guess who the player behind Hyena is ), I’m simply saying that the stuff that makes you lean village on them is what I’d chalk up to NAI at the most (I’ll talk more about this later). My perspective is probably limited though, but it’s all I have to go off from. I appreciate the detailed response though, I understand the logic you’re operating on. edit: @Oxblood Beagle I was just trynna reference the next cycle’s exe with that wording If you look at some of my other posts after that one I’m pretty sure I’d already started looking back on some of meerkats posts and I think I found Alb sus consequentially. And if this sounded lazy (procrastinatory, like you put it :P) it’s probably because it was. In my head we’d just outed an elim, so a little celebratory laziness shouldn’t be too unusual. The bulk of my time and efforts right there and then were focused on figuring out the reason for the Octo NK anyway (still confuzzled about that btw) as you can tell from Meetkat’s PM post.

I have problems with how easily Meerkat seems to trust both Vulture and Hyena. I think I’m past the point of still questioning Meerkat’s alignment, but I just don’t see what either Vulture or Hyena have done to indicate a village alignment. I don’t particularly disagree with any of the thoughts/conclusions regarding the two in Meerkat’s giant PM evaluation post, but I feel like there’s definitely players capable of doing all these things while being of either alignment, so I feel that these points should largely be NAI. Which is. Concerning. I hate to tunnel, so I’m just gonna leave these thoughts here and focus on someone else Seems like I have my vote on…um Beagle? Yes, beagle. I’ll admit that was kind of an impulsive vote, coupled with the accumulation of previously gathered gut feelings. I will revisit this vote, take a better look at Beagle’s posts. (ninjad by Oxblood what a coincidence) (It appears that you’ve accidentally posted an incomplete post ) Gorilla seems to be a popular choice today? (I’m the case of e!gorilla, notable lack of counter exe? Perhaps one will appear soon) I’ve already ISO’d them (see my N2 post) and ig I’m okay with a gorilla exe this cycle particularly because their response to my ISO was…idk, I think all they said was that I brought up a good point. @Turquoise Gorilla It’d be great to have a reads list from you, even if it’s just a list without reasoning. I know this is the second time I’m asking and I don’t intend to pressure you too much or anything if you have RL getting in the way of things - that’s completely understandable. Edit: sorry beagle I just saw that edit oops

That logic does check out but. I’m just not comfortable with how you were hesitant to vote meerkat even after their like, 4th post this turn. 4 posts in which meerkat did nothing to refute the tineye message. I feel like the lack of a rebuttal from meerkat should hold more weight than poor game play by a seeker. I’m also suspicious of the players that simply quietly viewed the thread like others have mentioned, like Amber Vulture, Quartz Zebra, Turquoise Gorilla, and prolly others too

Oxblood Beagle edit: the only way you’d know somehting was wrong is if you’re an elim

Excuse me while I go lie down

It’s possible that Scarlet Octopus was the tineye that sent today’s message. I guess that could maybe explain why the elims targeted them last night? One of the elims might’ve caught wind of the seeker results through PMs and tried to kill Octopus before they could post this message. This is assuming the none of the elims read the above quoted rules clarification which is um unlikely so idk. Maybe they thought Octopus would wait a cycle before posting the message but idk why they’d go off that assumption edit: or maybe they just wanted to kill the seeker’s only trusted connection to the thread

Depending on the elim team composition, I would not put it past them to use an e!tineye to just straight up lie in that message in order to pull off a bus. I think most of us are aware of Meerkat’s disposition toward being an elim, so it’s not unreasonable to speculate that they might’ve volunteered for a bus. If this is the case, it’s possible that this has been the elim game plan from the start, meaning that every single post that meerkat has made has been designed to throw us off. That does require meticulous planning though. I think that after we exe Meerkat we should go into the next cycle analyzing Meerkat’s posts assuming that this was not in fact a bus, and depending on whether that assumption leads us to more elims, we can either discard it and entertain the bus idea for a bit or continue with it if it seems to be getting us elims. edit: note to self, look closer at Alb. Meerkat defended them both in-thread and in PMs

Woah?? I feel like solving the game from here shouldn’t be too hard Salmon Meerkat I have other thoughts, will write em down when I’m on desktop

Turquoise Gorilla: 1st Post D1: RP; NAI 2nd Post D1: Role distro thoughts; nothing of note; NAI 3rd Post D1: Irrc this was the post that earned Gorilla a number of the elim reads from people; Quotes a bunch of role distro-related posts (including their own), only to say that they agree with themself. This post provides nothing of substance, as noted by some. Could possibly be elim fluff. 4th & 5th Posts D1: Nothing of note 6th Post D1: Votes on Swan because they dont want any of the other exe candidates to die; notably refrains from providing reason to be reading Swan as 'mild elim' 7th Post D1: Responds to Swan wrt to their vote, says it's a gut read and that it's too late to start a new train; does not really mention who they would have tried to start a new train on did they have the time to 8th Post D1: VC Last Post D1: Switches vote from Swan to Iguana (making the votes 4/3/3 with iguana in the lead) in the name of self-pres + not wanting croc to die; says croc is top village read. This logic kinda checks out to me, idk. 1st Post N1: RP 2nd Post N1: Speculates that both vote manips were likely from elims 3rd Post N1: nothing of note 1st Post D2: Responds to Hyena's question about what other trains Gorilla would've liked to start during D1; claims that there's no one in particular but that theyve had a weird feeling about Alb; places vote on Alb saying their recent survival has made them more suspicious; at this point Alb already had mine and Amber's vote on them, so this could've been e!Gorilla just trying to sneak their vote onto a pre-existing train or v!Gorilla simply voting for their top suspect 2nd Post D2: Clarifies that their Alb vote is just cause of the fact that they survived, which apparently means they're more likely to be evil. @Turquoise Gorilla Would you have been suspicious of anybody that survived a coinshot kill, regardless of whether you'd previously been reading them village? There's also a slight contradiction in your posts here - in this post from D1, you explicitly say that you expect there to be one kill role among the elims. Shouldn't that, by extension, mean that the village would have some protection roles to counter that? In fact you even state that you expect the village to have at least one of each role, give or take. So why did Alb's survival point to their alignment being elim? 3rd and 4th Posts D2: nothing of note 5th Post D2: Says Meerkat's Octopus post makes sense, might vote for Octopus after a thread re-read; very non-committal tone to be noted "Perhaps I will be convinced to switch after doing a full-thread read thru, perhaps not. Idk." 6th Post D3: Promises a reads list to be posted sometime during the turn (which you're yet to provide, btw ) 7th: nothing of note 8th Post D2 (and 9th): votes on Amethyst Scorpion for voting on Gorilla with reasoning Gorilla doesn't agree with; highly defensive reaction, considering that this was the only vote on Gorilla at that moment. What's also interesting here is that Gorilla placed this vote 1 hour before rollover. This sticks out to me because Gorilla's reason for not 'starting a new train' on D1 was because apparently there was no time to, despite there being 5 hours of the turn remaining. D2, however, Gorilla had no problems brining down the Alb votes from 3 to 2 in order to start a completely new exe target 1 hour before rollover. This is contradictory. Gorilla's reasoning for their vote, however, gives off village vibes because I don't believe an elim would be so quick to react so strongly to a single vote being placed on them cuz the panicked air that gives off aint good. 1st Post N2: They sound a little frustrated. Could be a village tell? NGL I started off this iso with a little bit of confirmation bias cuz I just really want Gorilla to be village but I came across a couple of strange contradictions in their posts like explained above so if Gorilla can just clear those up it'd be v v nice, I don't want to form an opinion just yet.

Oh Well then

The other vote manip is missing this time, so I am now entertaining the idea of an e!Mistborn. I think they maybe rolled soother D1, and Coinshot N1. I know that they get different metals every night, so I’m assuming they started off with a metal that only lasted half a cycle. @Elbereth would this be correct, or do mistborn just begin the game with no metals? My guy says all the tied candidates D1 were village. Keep in mind I haven’t thoroughly evaluated Gorilla as of yet, but I’ve been playing with the assumption that it was v/v/v , and any vote manips were either self pres (like iguana’s), or just the elims trying to sow confusion by diverting D2 discussion to the vote manipulation instead of actually trying to weed out elims. Of course it is entirely possible that Gorilla themself was the second soother - I am only verbalizing this because I’m sure the elims have considered this as a possibility already, it’s kind of a no-brainer. Of course, the idea of the coinshot being an e!Mistborn should mean that Albatross is innocent, and I am willing to suspend my suspicions of them for this assumption. I think I feel slightly better about Albatross now anyway.

I wanna talk about Octopus The tone in their first post reads kinda impassive like idk they seem to sound very matter-of-fact about the role distros? And then they place a 'loose vote' on Cham in the same post, which, conversely, reads kinda hedgey. Their next couple of posts are also about role distro, I'll mark these as NAI. Then there's this post where they say they 'might be tunnelling' on Cham, which strikes me as odd because I wouldnt say they were even close to tunnelling? Cuz like literally the only other time they'd talked about Cham was in their first post when they placed their vote on Cham (roughly three hours prior to this). I wouldn't define that as tunnelling; this seems like the kinda overly-self-aware behaviour you'd expect to see from an elim, IMO. Then there's also like. A LOT of one-liner RP posts which seem like they're intended to make Octopus seem like they're an active contributor to the thread. Could just be that this is their playstyle, of course, but I have no way of verifying that. In this post they move their vote from Cham to Gorilla, promising to move back to Cham if the opportunity arises. This is weird too cuz at this point in time there were still about 4.5 hours left in the turn and Cham had 2 votes on them already, which wasn't too far off the lead exe. If Octopus really wanted Cham dead they couldve just let their vote sit on Cham for a littlw while longer; the votes were moving quite fluidly at this point so a cham exe was still very much within the realm of possibilities. And then there's this post which I simply just dont agree with. Would love to say more but I'd love to sleep before sunrise more so, ciao

I've been rereading the thread so updated reads list time!!!!! Village: Emerald Falcon, Violet Axolotl, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat, Coral Swan, Fuchsia Ostrich Elim-ish: Amber Vulture Elim: Magenta Albatross, Charcoal Hyena, Ivory Dragonfly, Scarlet Octopus Combine my elim reads with my elim-ish read, and you got a semi-plausible elim team! 5 aint a bad guess eh? Also all the vote counts posted this turn have been trynna gaslight my vote on Albatross out of existence Right now there's a total of 3 votes on them.

This is a bluff. Either you’re messing with the thread, Emerald, or this person has lied to you. Because I cannot conjure any reason why anyone would truthfully claim coinshot and then allow you to announce that to the thread k bye gonna go sleep now will read/respond to the rest of the thread later

I skimmed through the thread and it seems that there's a lack of negative views on them, which I'd equated to positive impressions. Tbf I was talking off the top of my head. No the basis of my vote is their behaviour, the claim was just a solidifying factor for my vote because a newbie act coupled with a role claim does warrant a vote imo. I say agree to disagree on whether it's the best move for a villager to be claiming under these circumstances because I atm don't really think albatross is a villager so I don't see the point in discussing all that. Also I missed the edit on your previous post before so I'll address that now: I am in favour of fake-claiming and I've talked about the inherent IKYK nature of fake-claims. The reason this particular claim's different to me is because, in my head, it's being played under the pretense of a naive newbie player. Again, I am not completely sold on my own theory because I very much understand how far-fetched it is.

Why? I think the general impression that most players had about albatross last cycle was positive, so I won’t be surprised if a village Lurcher decided to protect them? if the Lurcher thought they themself weren’t particularly at risk of getting attacked last night, protecting a player that they trust would allow the Lurcher to use their protection on themself in the next cycle.

The way I see it, if Albatross hadn’t role claimed, both the elims and villagers alike would be left with three options (Lurcher, lurched, or thug, like you say), which is still better than having an actual claim because that would’ve left greater room for doubt. I say this benefits the elims because they already have an extended knowledge of the role distribution collectively judging off their own roles, and this just makes it easier for them to narrow down the more important village roles. I just don’t think claiming was the best of moves, agree to disagree

Now why would you ever say that Let's pretend you're bluffing, don't let the elims know! But on a more serious note, I'm inclined to believe your claim. I do not get village vibes from it though - you claimed way too easily and way too quickly. From a newer player, this would be understandable. But upon reading your posts- no, rereading our PM, I don't get the impression that you're a new player like Falcon is suggesting (and Swan is of the same opinion iirc). Obviously we're not permitted to c/p from PMs, but to paraphrase, at one point in our PM you brought up the fact that on D1s, we have to latch on to the littlest details to justify votes - I don't think a new player would say this. You need at least one game's worth of experience to be able to notice that, no? And if you've played one game at least, surely you'd know what role madness is? I get the feeling that e!Albatross has been trying very hard to come off as a new player (that post asking what role madness is, the role-exchanging requests in pms, the subsequent -and very public- realisation that exchanging roles mostly only helps elims) and thinks that claiming straight-up without waiting to receive more pressure from the thread will get them village cred for being transparent about their role. Except, a villager would know that publicly claiming this role doesnt exactly help the village in any way, it just provides the elim team with role distribution information. It is very possible that I'm reaching too hard with my tin-foil hat on, but I really wanna trust my gut here,,,i think that one particular LG permanently broke my brain Also uh here's a reads list. Village: Emerald Falcon: The fact that they made this odd mistake of bringing up PMs that don't exist reads extremely village to me, I can't imagine an elim making a slip this blatant. Additionally, their case against Mauve Crocodile was too strong and confrontive for it be coming from an elim imo, particularly because this was posted 30 mins before rollover and I fail to see why an elim would make the effort to explain their vote in such depth when they know Mauve is going to flip village Saffron Iguana: three letters - g u t Violet Axolotl: this post, mostly. Screams village imo. Coral Swan: also gut? I think? I need to re-evaluate this one at some point Elim: Magenta Albatross: explained above Ivory Dragonfly: man's made a total of one (1) post, with essentially no content in it. From the looks of last night's NK, it seems that the elims were going for a low-info kill. Surely Dragonfly would've made for a far suitable candidate for that than Lion, who had posted considerably more than them? Dragonfly isnt at risk from the activity filter either, thanks to their one post. I would put Elephant under the same category, except Elephant's first post wasn't until the night turn, so it's possible the elims just didnt consider Elephant for the NK because they expected them to fall to the activity filter soon. Charcoal Hyena: for reasons i've been chasing in the past, although my elim read of hyena is a bit less intense now I'll admit Confused about (half the time I'm convinced they're village and the other half not so much): Salmon Meerkat, Amber Vulture, Pearl Chameleon Remaining players: I've yet to form any hint of an opinion on you soz

Sorry I'd been out n about the entire day and only now have I gotten a chance to properly look at the thread. Thanks Meerkat. All cards on the table, Hyena, here's what went down w me: My initial vote on you was largely because I didn't like the fact that your first post was a huge hedgey reads list that had the potential to bent in any direction to assist in any future elim needs. I misread your reply to that as saying that you'd written that entire post before opening your GM PM, which I found to be very odd and hence left my vote where it was. Not a screaming red flag or anything, but like others have brought up, on D1 you sorta just gotta pounce on whatever little thing you can. After that things happened and I eventually ended up discussing your post with Meerkat in our PM, and they brought up the fact that you'd said you had only BEGUN writing that post before reading your GM PM. I found this to be even odder cuz like why even bring the fact up then? It basically means nothing when you'd yet to type up 90% of it, like you say. This seemed suspicious to me because elims often just add unnecessary facts and fluff-like details to their posts for add an element of the villager ethos, if you know what I mean. But at this point I was kinda rooting for a three-way tie cuz I thought it would be fun to see 1) randomised exes 2) how the vote manips and things would play out (if at all) and my vote sitting on your name in solitude didnt seem to be working forwards a tie so I started looking at other options (i.e. my temporary experimental vote on Cham, which I was hoping would lead me to comprehend other options). However, when Meerkat switched their vote to yours I dropped all my other trains of thought and replaced my vote back on you in hopes that one more person might add their vote to you as well, pushing your exe up as another tied candidate. Then I went to bed and later found out that no one did add a vote to you. A three-way tie did end up happening though! Shouldve maybe gone for a four-way tie though, cuz vote manip dissolved the tie. I will probably give my own thoughts on the vote shenanigans soon That a nice summary?

Charcoal Hyena

It makes sense, yeah, but what doesn’t make a lot of sense is for them to list the player as suspicious in the first place, imo

I think their point is that to villagers starting off, every other player essentially holds the same unknown alignment, so voting one way or another for villagers shouldn’t matter too significantly D1. For elims on the other hand, they already know everyone’s alignment so they’ll inherently have a bias in who they’re comfortable placing their votes on.

Aw hell yea let’s goo