Chartreuse Penguin

Is there anyone with any sort of theft ability that would be willing to work with me to acquire something?

I'm not sure why those are good reasons to kick your cousin out of the palace though. Just because women give you trouble doesn't mean the rest of us can't handle them. Although anyone that claims to be able to handle Jasnah is setting themselves up to look like a fool.

Liss.

I think a lot of win conditions are going to be tied to the events of this time period within the books. The Parshendi probably want to kill Gavilar or find some way to stop the Sons of Honor from causing a Desolation. Some of the Kholins probably want to protect Gavilar from dying. The Sons of Honor probably have a vested interest in the Alethi-Parshendi Alliance. Nale might want to kill Jasnah if he discovers her abilities. I honestly don't know my win condition, but I think Gavilar was suspicious of Restares being his murderer, so I might benefit from Szeth succeeding, although I am one of the Sons of Honor apparently, so I don't know how that fits. I don't think anyone has enough information to make it worth making enemies just yet. Although if we ostracize somebody this cycle, they can just vote themselves back in next cycle since they will be all by themselves.

Restares sat on the edge of the room, avoiding any gazes that strayed in his direction. Some jobs were best done with no outside interaction.

Restares isn't much for the life of the party.

I don't think Tutara is TWTBAW at all. I'd say just the right amount of WTBAW. However, I find Amythyst Scorpion to be a better candidate for the lynch, mainly for reasons stated before. Not that I won't change it to save my skin.

Well. Bold numbers added by me. 1/2. I was trying to say that a win condition and role change would be harder to make work than just switching the account you post from. Not that it would be inherently unbalanced, just that it would be more difficult to fit into a game. 3. Nothing much to say here. 4/5. I'm gonna quote my post here: Wow, it does look pretty bad lined up like this. My first post was me saying that I think if Emerald was willing to give small amounts of information, it would do a lot to lessen my fears. My second post was making the decision that if Emerald isn't a neutral and isn't a refugee, and wasn't willing to give out any information, the risk was too high of someone helpful to the elims, or even just a straight up elim. With me saying I'd kill them anyways, I was saying what they've done was a rather bad plan, considering they'd probably die from the lynch, and if not, the elims would likely kill them. Obviously if we come to the conclusion you are more likely a village helper than a elim helper, the elims are likely to come to that same conclusion. 6. Do i misunderstand what a jester is? Normally a Jester winning would have consequences for the village, right? I've never actually played a game with them, so One Night is my only other place I've played with something resembling this. 7. YES!!!! MUAHAHAHAHA! MY WIN CONDITION IS MET! To be fair, I'd probably kill myself at this point after your objections. I've phrased several of my posts badly, which kinda contributed to me seeming elimy. If I die, my final request is to see some guesses as to my identity after or before I die.

Oh geez, I'm scared now.

Emerald Falcon. Afraid I find the risk to great that we could be leaving someone detrimental to the village alive if we leave you. You say you're not neutral, and that either the elims or we would want to kill you. You also say you are not a refugee. tbh, I'd kill you anyways if I were an elim. I will think on it more however, and there's still a chance I'll change my vote before the end of the cycle.

Sorry for few posts. Either way, I don't really think Emerald Falcon is certainly anti-village. If they don't want to share their win-con, that could just as easily be because it was anti-elim and they didn't want to be on the radar for a good kill target. That's assuming Falcon is a neutral-which I'm not completely convinced of so far. I think it might be good to suggest a compromise. @Emerald Falcon How about you tell us the name of your faction or role or whatever? That way we can, if one dies in the future, confirm your neutral status. That might open up some issues on your part depending on the name, but I find it much less likely to get you killed at least.

I personally find most of Magenta's posts to be NAI, given the identity. Seems more or less just a normal village play for Pyro. Sorry for small activity on my part, I'll be more active tomorrow afternoon and later. I haven't read most of the posts to be fair.

To be clear, I was talking about a swap including win conditions. I think that a win condition swap would make balancing harder, and it would maybe be something to try out if this goes well. I think just an account swap and perhaps ability swap is more likely. Also, I feel bad for anyone who swaps. You'd have to constantly be going around and looking for passwords to multiple accounts.

No need for that! I was gonna post literally as you posted. Oh well. Hey, Chartreuse Penguin checking in. I'm here to force you all to memorize how to spell chartreuse so you don't have to go back every time and spell check it. So, some speculation. My first thought when I saw the body swapping thing in the original post was that it was not only bodies, but roles that were switched as well. Admittedly I find this much less likely after reading the thread than a simple account switch, but it's still a possibility worth looking at.

@Fuchsia Ostrich: it’s the night cycle (for 20 more minutes). Once the day cycle starts you can vote. @Onyx Flamingo: my suspicions and trusts haven’t really changed since I posted them last cycle. Also, I swear I made a post earlier today but it must not have gone through. I’m still waiting with someone than more free time to name the people who voiced gut-feeling suspicions on Meerkat (I was one of them. I think @Ivory Dragonfly was another. Dragonfly, do you know who the others were?). I suspect that the Eliminators may have seen all the misguided gut reads and decided to instigate the lynch on Meerkat knowing they’d likely get an easy following.

Well darn, I was really hoping Meerkat would turn out to be elim, but as the cycle went on and more and more votes piled on Meerkat without opposition I began to get worried. Oh well, I still feel that by that point we needed to follow through on the lynch just to be sure. (By the way, what does “NAI” stand for? Based on the context I suspect that everything I just said is NAI, but I still can’t figure out what the acronym stands for) can someone who knows and/or with more free time than me and/or who isn’t on mobile like I am right now post who claimed to have a gut read on Meerkat before the lynch train started? I know there were 4: I was one of them, and I think @Ivory Dragonfly was one, but I don’t remember who the other two were. I’m wondering if the Eliminators saw that everyone had a gut read on Meerkat and instigated the lynch intentionally.

My motive is my gut read. Like I said, I’ve never had an Eliminator gut read on someone this strongly before, and it’s weird that I’m not the only one. Now I might be completely wrong, but I’d rather follow through with the lynch on you than to switch my vote (back) to someone that nobody else is going to vote for an have it not mean anything, and I don’t have any particular suspicion of Crocodile. Sorry. *shrug*

Ha! It’s funny that you should say that, because when I typed out that post that’s exactly how I felt about it. But I didn’t have a lot of time and I had already explained my suspicions for meerkat (As much as possible, anyway, when the primary reason is a strong gut feeling), so I just left the post as is. *shrug* I’m not sure what else you expect me to say about it.

Agreed, we need more discussion. @Turquoise Gorilla Why’d you have to kill Beagle!? Even if he had turned out to be an Eliminator, at least he was encouraging people to contribute! Anyway, maybe this will help stir up some discussion. Magenta Albatross Salmon Meerkat nobody seems to want to follow me in lynching Albatross so I might as well go with one of the others I suspect and actually have a chance of lynching.

@Magenta Albatross I just wanted to say that I’ve seen and acknowledge your response. I’m going to leave my vote on you, for now at least. You make some good points, but as I read your post I could see you saying those things whether you were an Eliminator or a villager. My suspicions on other players still stand, and I may switch my vote to one of them later on if I feel it will be beneficial to the lynch.

Ah yes, good point. Thanks. But actually, what Flamingo said was (paraphrased) “hey what do you guys think of the post I just made in the thread?” Unfortunately, this was made during the time when I was struggling to maintain activity, and since Flamingo didn’t include a link to their post I never actually went to track down the post they were referring to, so I never knew what it said. My bad I guess. I respect your opinion, though I’m still leaving my vote on Albatross. And thanks for reminding me about Zebra’s case against Ostrich. I found it rather compelling, too. Adding Ostrich to my list of suspicions (mentally- I don’t have a spreadsheet set up or anything, which is why I sometime forget about stuff like this).

Can't say I'm surprised about the attack on Beagle, though it is regrettable. Gorilla and Gecko... I didn't have a strong enough read on either of them to draw any conclusions from their deaths (EDIT: though after reflecting I remembered that I had been leaning village for both of them. Still don't know what conclusions to draw, other than maybe that the Eliminators have a world hopper that drew Division last cycle). Anyway, as I promised last night, here are a few of my suspicions: First though, some recap of things I and others have said. I mentioned that I thought it likely that in any given vote some eliminators would try to avoid the limelight by not voting or voting for someone outside of the lynch debate. Well there was only one lynch candidate who was outside of the debate: Amber Vulture. Now, I was the one who first voted for Vulture. I had my reasons for doing so (and I still do), however I readily admit that they are pretty flimsy reasons to anyone who isn't me. So imagine my surprise when a few people actually started following my in my lynch. Flamingo followed me for a little bit, then shifted their vote to Tuatara for self preservation reasons. However, one player followed my vote Vulture and was content to leave their vote there the entire day: @Magenta Albatross. If there was an eliminator wanting to vote but still stay out of the main debate, Albatross is literally the only person that could be (aside from me, but I already know I'm innocent ). Second, Last night I challenged Beagle (who- for better or for worse- we now know to be village) to look at the PM group again with the assumption that one of the members was an eliminator, and try to figure out which one it was. This was his response: Hmm. Albatross again. Third, we have this. Now, it's not guaranteed that any particular eliminator is going to vote every cycle, but I'd say that there is a good chance that at least one of those three players is an eliminator, if not more. And once again, Albatross is one of the candidates. Now, this is far from an ironclad case, but it's enough for me to know where I want to cast my vote. Magenta Albatross. Now, lest someone accused me of tunneling, I assure you I'm not. At worst, I'm misconstruing several select pieces of evidence. I do have some other suspicions, as well as village reads. Namely: @Amber Vulture: Again, it's still kind of flimsy, but regardless, during the Chicken Brigade PM they were the only player who tried to influence the group into voting a certain way- against Swan, who we now know to be village. Vulture addressed other people's concerns last cycle when they were in the spotlight, but they never actually addressed mine. Hmm... @Salmon Meerkat: Admittedly, I have no specific evidence, just a gut feeling, but I have never had a gut read this strong in any game I've ever played. Something subconsciously just screams to me that Meerkat is an Elim. If other people felt inclined to vote for Meerkat I'd support the lynch in a heartbeat. Still feeling that @Quartz Zebra is Village, and to a lesser extent, @Ivory Dragonfly and @Onyx Flamingo are probably village. My other two village reads (Beagle and Gecko) died last night. I'll reiterate what others have said: It's perfectly normal to not have found any eliminators by cycle 4, and we have no reason to suspect that they have a smaller than usual team. Yeah, it's not ideal, but we're still several cycles away from the "We need to find an Eliminator today or we lose the game" point. I missed this on my first read through today's thread, but noticed it when I quoted the above section, after I had written out my suspicion list. So that actually makes 4 people with a bad gut read on Meerkat. Meerkat, how come so many people's guts are distrustful of you?

Man I wish PMs were open right now. Anyway, just spent over a hour getting caught up on what happened during this past day cycle and tonight. Here are a few random disjointed thoughts: 1) Tuatara: I read completely through the rest of the day thread before opening this one, and I was expecting to find Tuatara had been an Eliminator (or saved by vote manipulations). At least, if I had been able to check the thread before the day ended I probably would have switched my vote to Tuatara to help solidify that vote. Their behavior came off as a desparate Eliminator to me and the movement against Beagle and Flamingo (why is everyone calling Flamingo “Onyx” when we refer to everyone else by their animal name, anyway?) felt off to me, or rather, it seemed that there were a couple of people who were a little too eager to jump onto an alternative lunch candidate. Anyway, it sucks that Tuatara was Village but I don’t regret that the vote went that way. I think by that point Tuatara needed to be lynched. 2) Vote manipulations: one plus side of the hotly contested lynch was how many vote manipulators it drew out. Now we have a fair good idea of how many vote manipulators we’re dealing with. 2) @Oxblood Beagle and @Quartz Zebra: these two were the primary motivators behind the two sides of the lynch debate, and honestly, both of them feel pretty Village to me. Pushing either side of the lynch as hard as they both did doesn’t feel like an Eliminator move to me, and their reasons both felt passionate but genuine. 3) The PM group: however, past experience had shown many, many times, that even though a prominent player may be a skilled villager and may have the best of intentions, they’re going to make mistakes in who they trust. So, @Oxblood Beagle, even though I believe you are villager, I’d put money on one of the people in your trusted PM Group being an Eliminator. I invite you to re-examine each of the players in the trust group using the assumption that one of them is an Eliminator and try to figure out which one it is. 4) Eliminator behavior: this is partially a reaction to @Taupe Gecko‘s post up above, but also just some good general info that is worth saying, but in my experience you can’t lump Eliminators into one group and say “this is how I think they’ll act.” Usually what happens is each Eliminator takes a slightly different tactic and runs with it. They’ll coordinate with each other in the doc, but they are paranoid about being associated with each other so they adopt different view points and different levels of activity. In any given vote (including yesterday’s vote), regardless of whether the candidates are Villagers or Eliminators, you’ll usually find one or two Eliminators voting for each side of the debate, as well as a few who don’t vote at all or vote for someone outside of the main running. This way they cover all their bases. No matter how the vote goes (even if one of their own is lynched), a couple of them might come under suspicion, but others will be vindicated and others will slip into the background and avoid attention altogether. The end result is that they might end up losing a member or two, but majority of the team will be safe. So, what that means for us is that it’s not wise to assume that the Eliminators acted this way or that. Odds are they acted both. Instead, I believe it’s better to look at individual players and try to judge if they were an eliminator acting a certain way. As such, I have a few suspicions of specific players based on all my observations above as well as a couple gut reads, but I’ll share those after the rollover. 5) Okay herowannabe Beagle, if you say so. j/k I have no idea who you are or anyone else and I don’t really have any desire to figure it out, but that sounds like something Hero would say. Still, I’m not going to fault anyone for trying to encourage activity.

I hope I’m not the only one who sees the irony in this statement. “I can’t believe that beagle is sill alive! He’s been so active! I say we kill him so that he won’t be alive anymore.” Logic like that is precisely why the active players tend to get killed early in these games and the games devolves into a handful of semi-active players who haven’t been following the game trying to find the remaining eliminators. From what I’ve seen the super-active players (like @Oxblood Beagle has been) are almost always (but admittedly, not always) Village. If this is true then don’t worry, the Eliminators will kill him eventually- day 3 is too soon to be suspicious of someone simply for not having been killed yet. Let’s try to not make the eliminators’ job easier for them. And in the meantime, if we keep Beagle alive we all get to benefit from his frequent and detailed posts, analyses, and theories. And if it turns out that he is one of those super-active players who happens to also be an eliminator, it will become obvious as time goes on. Nobody can post that much and not slip up somewhere.

@Onyx Flamingo did a good job summing it up. I was hoping to do more with that PM group, but now that PMs are closed that’s not going to happen, so I might as well state what my intentions were. You see, big PM groups with a bunch of random players like that are usually a terrible idea because there is almost always an Eliminator or two in the bunch. So I was watching for that, looking for anyone who might be trying to subtly manipulate the group into voting for or protecting someone. The PM group was too short lived to really follow that plan through for very long, but there was one player in the group who voiced some suspicions that I felt were pretty shakey at the time. @Amber Vulture voiced suspicion of Swan before the bandwagon got going against her. My suspicion of Amber Vulture isn’t very strong, but it’s the only suspicion I have that isn’t literally bandwagoning onto someone else’s vote, so I’m going to stick with it for now.