Chartreuse Penguin

Man I wish PMs were open right now. Anyway, just spent over a hour getting caught up on what happened during this past day cycle and tonight. Here are a few random disjointed thoughts: 1) Tuatara: I read completely through the rest of the day thread before opening this one, and I was expecting to find Tuatara had been an Eliminator (or saved by vote manipulations). At least, if I had been able to check the thread before the day ended I probably would have switched my vote to Tuatara to help solidify that vote. Their behavior came off as a desparate Eliminator to me and the movement against Beagle and Flamingo (why is everyone calling Flamingo “Onyx” when we refer to everyone else by their animal name, anyway?) felt off to me, or rather, it seemed that there were a couple of people who were a little too eager to jump onto an alternative lunch candidate. Anyway, it sucks that Tuatara was Village but I don’t regret that the vote went that way. I think by that point Tuatara needed to be lynched. 2) Vote manipulations: one plus side of the hotly contested lynch was how many vote manipulators it drew out. Now we have a fair good idea of how many vote manipulators we’re dealing with. 2) @Oxblood Beagle and @Quartz Zebra: these two were the primary motivators behind the two sides of the lynch debate, and honestly, both of them feel pretty Village to me. Pushing either side of the lynch as hard as they both did doesn’t feel like an Eliminator move to me, and their reasons both felt passionate but genuine. 3) The PM group: however, past experience had shown many, many times, that even though a prominent player may be a skilled villager and may have the best of intentions, they’re going to make mistakes in who they trust. So, @Oxblood Beagle, even though I believe you are villager, I’d put money on one of the people in your trusted PM Group being an Eliminator. I invite you to re-examine each of the players in the trust group using the assumption that one of them is an Eliminator and try to figure out which one it is. 4) Eliminator behavior: this is partially a reaction to @Taupe Gecko‘s post up above, but also just some good general info that is worth saying, but in my experience you can’t lump Eliminators into one group and say “this is how I think they’ll act.” Usually what happens is each Eliminator takes a slightly different tactic and runs with it. They’ll coordinate with each other in the doc, but they are paranoid about being associated with each other so they adopt different view points and different levels of activity. In any given vote (including yesterday’s vote), regardless of whether the candidates are Villagers or Eliminators, you’ll usually find one or two Eliminators voting for each side of the debate, as well as a few who don’t vote at all or vote for someone outside of the main running. This way they cover all their bases. No matter how the vote goes (even if one of their own is lynched), a couple of them might come under suspicion, but others will be vindicated and others will slip into the background and avoid attention altogether. The end result is that they might end up losing a member or two, but majority of the team will be safe. So, what that means for us is that it’s not wise to assume that the Eliminators acted this way or that. Odds are they acted both. Instead, I believe it’s better to look at individual players and try to judge if they were an eliminator acting a certain way. As such, I have a few suspicions of specific players based on all my observations above as well as a couple gut reads, but I’ll share those after the rollover. 5) Okay herowannabe Beagle, if you say so. j/k I have no idea who you are or anyone else and I don’t really have any desire to figure it out, but that sounds like something Hero would say. Still, I’m not going to fault anyone for trying to encourage activity.

I hope I’m not the only one who sees the irony in this statement. “I can’t believe that beagle is sill alive! He’s been so active! I say we kill him so that he won’t be alive anymore.” Logic like that is precisely why the active players tend to get killed early in these games and the games devolves into a handful of semi-active players who haven’t been following the game trying to find the remaining eliminators. From what I’ve seen the super-active players (like @Oxblood Beagle has been) are almost always (but admittedly, not always) Village. If this is true then don’t worry, the Eliminators will kill him eventually- day 3 is too soon to be suspicious of someone simply for not having been killed yet. Let’s try to not make the eliminators’ job easier for them. And in the meantime, if we keep Beagle alive we all get to benefit from his frequent and detailed posts, analyses, and theories. And if it turns out that he is one of those super-active players who happens to also be an eliminator, it will become obvious as time goes on. Nobody can post that much and not slip up somewhere.

@Onyx Flamingo did a good job summing it up. I was hoping to do more with that PM group, but now that PMs are closed that’s not going to happen, so I might as well state what my intentions were. You see, big PM groups with a bunch of random players like that are usually a terrible idea because there is almost always an Eliminator or two in the bunch. So I was watching for that, looking for anyone who might be trying to subtly manipulate the group into voting for or protecting someone. The PM group was too short lived to really follow that plan through for very long, but there was one player in the group who voiced some suspicions that I felt were pretty shakey at the time. @Amber Vulture voiced suspicion of Swan before the bandwagon got going against her. My suspicion of Amber Vulture isn’t very strong, but it’s the only suspicion I have that isn’t literally bandwagoning onto someone else’s vote, so I’m going to stick with it for now.

@Quartz Zebra and @Oxblood Beagle, thank you both very much for your summaries and analyses! As a player struggling to maintain activity I find those very helpful. Yeah... my #1 goal is to get active enough to follow along with what’s happening in the thread and start forming my own suspicions. My #2 goal is to get so active that either I attract enough suspicion to get me lynched or pose a big enough threat to the eliminators that they kill me. One way or another, I’m hoping to die before the end of the game. Anyway, I definitely don’t have enough reads on people to start forming specific suspicions, but perhaps I can take a more birds-eye (ba-dum-tss) view, and offer some general strategies. Its interesting that out of the 4 people who have died, 3 of them had special roles. I’d almost suspect that this is secretly a role madness game, except that @Charcoal Hyena was a regular villager. There’s not a whole lot of conclusions we can draw from just 4 roles, but we can infer one or two things. Namely, it’s striking that half of the people who have died have been Village lightweavers. Now, that could just be coincidence, but statistically speaking it’s more likely that there are several more Village lightweavers still out there. Assuming that I’m right, why would the GMs give us so many lightweavers? There are only two reasons: 1. To counter eliminator Willshapers and Bondsmiths (vote-manipulators) 2. To counter an eliminator Skybreaker (seeker) Seeing as how there haven’t been that many vote manipulations (that I’m aware of), it seems likely that we have an Eliminator Skybreaker out there. So what do we do about it? Not sure, really. Any Village Lightweavers we have remaining should considers disguising themselves and possibly someone they trust, but the problem with that is that it can also draw attention if they get scanned by a friendly Skybreaker. I’ll leave it up to the individual lightweavers to decide how to use their power. One thing we can and SHOULD do is: if you are approached by someone claiming to be a Skybreaker (or even a worldhopper who happened to scan someone), don’t automatically trust them, even if they provide correct info about your role and/or anyone else’s role. It’s really easy for a Skybreaker Eliminator to hide in plain sight that way. Also, if you are a Village Skybreaker, the best thing you can do is scan a bunch of people (making sure to share the info with people you trust), and then actually sacrifice yourself later on when your death can confirm your role and alignment, and thus also confirm all of your scan results.

Hey everyone, I’m back. Sorry, life has been busy and I haven’t had as much free time for this as I thought I would. I’m going to try to give this one more go but if I can’t keep up then I may just step down and let a pinch hitter take over. @Onyx Flamingo poked me last cycle. I had the browser open in the background of my computer so every now and then when I cycled through my windows it probably said I “was online,” but I never actually got time to skim the thread until now. It sounds like I missed a lot last cycle. I still haven’t caught up on everything, but I have at least skimmed through the posts from tonight’s thread. I would also welcome a summary or two.

Just popping in to say that I’m here, working on getting caught up on the thread.

The door to the in burst open, and into the inn strode a massive figure in gleaming, chartreuse shardplate. The occupants of the inn looked at each other in confusion, and began whispering amongst themselves. "What color is chartreuse, anyway?" "Well, I mean, just look at the shard plate. It's right there in front of us." "Well yeah, it's obviously chartreuse, but how would you describe the color if you couldn't see it?" "I think it's a shade of red? Maybe with a bit of purple?" "Naw, it's sort of a sickly yellowy-greeny color. My weird old Aunt Minna had a chartreuse rug in her house. I always thought it looked like axehound vomit." The whispers went silent as a gleaming shardblade dropped into the shardbearer's outstretched hand. The shardbearer spoke, saying, "Who dares challenge the bravery of Brightlord Peneg Uinneas!? I have come to this town to help protect you from the voidbringer scourge, and already I hear of rumours questioning my good and noble name! I will not stand for such slander, particularly behind my back. If anyone hear doubts my courage, then let us take to the dueling arena and settle the question once and for all!" Apologies for not posting sooner, it's been a busy weekend. I'm still trying to catch up on the thread, but I probably won't be able to catch up before rollover, so I'll refrain from voting for anyone for now.