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Amethyst Scorpion

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Everything posted by Amethyst Scorpion

  1. Amethyst Scorpion
    wait i think i don't understand how smokers work
  2. Amethyst Scorpion
    I'm really curious what the vote history was...... "Penguin's thing seemed odd, not enough for me to want to remove them yet, but odd." Your theory is flawed. There is another that it is more likely to be.
  3. Amethyst Scorpion
    Why not vote me over weasel? When comparing how many 'posts of note' penguin gave each of us, weasel is clearly ahead. Hmm. An interesting thought experiment.
  4. Amethyst Scorpion
    I get voting for someone who's posted over not, but I don't get why vote for someone who's null over someone with an elim read. Especially D1, when votes are made up and reasonings don't matter. EDIT: An effective way to speed up the game, poke-voting. It's in the interest of everyone to beat those loot piñatas, and see what falls out. Let us start at the top of the list with Magenta Albatross.
  5. Amethyst Scorpion
    Anyway, I do suppose it's best to exe someone? You never know what'll drop from the loot piñatas I mean, other bodies :P. Fuschia Ostrich, do you currently have someone playing you?
  6. Amethyst Scorpion
    When you keep seeing references to double-posting but there are no double-posts to be found:
  7. Amethyst Scorpion
    Surely there are plenty of people who could be around at 08:33 UTC. It was a good game for effectiveness against the Spiked but not for your personal well being.
  8. Amethyst Scorpion
    I largely checked out analysis-wise after Chameleon died and spent way too much time looking at Axolotl so good job village on finding Beagle and Dingo. I do wish I had developed my RP character more but it was too much work and the setting wasn't working right. Why did people think I was Devotary, @Salmon Meerkat? Edit: While I tested your identity with more than one reference to things Kel would know about that you missed.
  9. Amethyst Scorpion
    Some role information could be useful later on since some claimed roles haven't been proven and there's still that Tineye out there who I don't believe has claimed. There's enough people with some role information that we won't lose it all at once. I've been convinced that Melon Dingo staying out of things could be elim since the only day their vote could have mattered is D1 since D2 was between two villagers and the other days couldn't have been changed by one vote (although D3 was close up until the end). D1, it was Turquoise Gorilla(3): Violet Axolotl, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus Mauve Crocodile(3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Emerald Falcon, Onyx Flamingo Saffron Iguana(3): Pearl Chameleon, Mauve Crocodile, Magenta Albatross Charcoal Hyena(2): Salmon Meerkat, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan(2): Oxblood Beagle, Turquoise Gorilla, Pearl Chameleon(1): Amethyst Scorpion, Violet Axolotl(1): Mint Heron, Amethyst Scorpion(1): Charcoal Hyena at the time Dingo last posted with Gorilla still yet to vote. It would be risky for an elim to do anything in this situation since 4/3/3 isn't much of a margin with Iguana's vote still in play and the possibility of village vote manip, but voting on Crocodile or Iguana would be condemning if Gorilla ever died.
  10. Amethyst Scorpion
    @Violet Axolotl why did you pick Chameleon for your D1 Vote manipulation? Were you worried they would shift their vote as they said they might? The vote tally was Turquoise Gorilla [3]: Violet Axolotl, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus Charcoal Hyena [2]: Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat Coral Swan [2]: Oxblood Beagle, Turquoise Gorilla Mauve Crocodile [2]: Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich Violet Axolotl [2]: Onyx Flamingo, Mint Heron Saffron Iguana [2]: Pearl Chameleon, Mauve Crocodile Amethyst Scorpion [1]: Charcoal Hyena Pearl Chameleon [1]: Amethyst Scorpion when you last posted, were you around to see any changes after that?
  11. Amethyst Scorpion
    So you ISOd my posts and then didn't actually read the rest of the thread. Fair enough for someone who missed a lot but hopefully you get a chance to read everything before you actually vote. I'd be an ambitious push for an elim looking for a mix so I'm not going to overturn the trust given for being attacked by an elim Coinshot. I PMd you in the hopes that you wouldn't die because I thought there were no pinch hitters left and didn't want to lose someone I was reading as village. How did you get me defending Cham from a post where I said that the lack of strong defense for Cham was not evidence they were village and then voted for them? I was the fourth vote for Gorilla? Axl, Swan, and Octopus were already voting Gorilla, and my vote made it 4/4/4 between Crocodile, Iguana, and Gorilla. Iguana was suspicious of me voting late and I wanted to know why they thought this. Elim vote manip being more powerful than village vote manip is just a fact. To the point where I said that an elim team with two dedicated vote manips is way too strong unless they have a small team. I was responding to Chameleon who said something that was not true. The only way a single Rioter could mimic the effect of two Soothers is if they rioted a vote to a no vote, cancelling their own vote in the process. I voted for Meerkat because there was a Tineye message saying Meerkat was spiked and then he admitted it in thread. I didn't like Falcon fishing for the Seeker's identity. It struck me as an elim wanting to hunt down and kill the Seeker before they could find any more elims. If I was evil, I would have known whether the Coinshot had claimed to Falcon. I was questioning why Ostrich put a 0% chance on you, Albatross, or Zebra being evil. We had this discussion extensively. I see no reason for Beagle to be village, but assume Meerkat has a good reason to do so for secret PM reasons he can't tell me about and so focus on people like Chameleon. I did the same thing for Penguin who Meerkat also told me was village, don't worry about it, and turns out to have been scanned as a villager.
  12. Amethyst Scorpion
    The Coinshot could have been a lot worse if they'd ever actually killed anyone. If there were seven elims and the elims got double kills every night for five nights we'd reach parity tonight, which seems excessive given 4/7 successful exes. It's relatively common for the elims to have tineyes. If the Tineye is village, they don't appear to have claimed yet. You don't win prizes for being the last elim left alive. Letting too many of your teammates die just lets the confirmed and soft cleared villagers steamroll you. It's super risky for elim!Axl to pretend to riot a Smoked Heron if Heron could just say they didn't smoke themself. Heron didn't actually claim anything about this, but they could have and then e!Axl would have needed to accuse an elim smoker.
  13. Amethyst Scorpion
    The chances of a mistborn getting repeat tineye N6 are at best 1/24, which is not a great chance. @Mint Heron, did you smoke yourself N5 or D6 such that a riot on D6 wouldn't have moved your vote?
  14. Amethyst Scorpion
    It would be strange for an villager to send a message N1, never do so again, and then never tell anyone about it.
  15. Amethyst Scorpion
    PMs still being open suggests that the elim Tineye who sent in the message N1 is still around. A mistborn would only have a 1/64 chance of getting tin again, but I guess it could also be a Mistborn who got bronze N1 while Hyena got tin making it more plausible that a mistborn could get tin. Heron claimed Smoker D6 and according to Axl was indeed Smoked. A Coinshot/Mistborn/Smoker/Tineye/Regular/Regular is still the most likely option for elim Heron, and if Heron happens to be a Mistborn we'll find out anyway. Mint Heron.
  16. Amethyst Scorpion
    For voting Gorilla D1 and Chameleon D5. Penguin got scanned as a village Thug by Swan who's a confirmed villager. The only way for Penguin to be evil is if Meerkat is lying.
  17. Amethyst Scorpion
    What's the probability of not getting a kill the first five cycles? 7/8*(7/8-1/64)*(7/8-1/32)*(7/8-3/64)*(7/8-1/16) ~42.7%, so an ~57.3% of a Mistborn rolling steel. Don't feel like doing the calculations for a Mistborn who say gets bronze twice in a row and thus on night 3 still has a 7/8-1/64 chance of getting steel, but this reduces the chance to maybe 55%-57% or so. Cham put pressure on Alb but didn't vote for him. The three people who voted for Albatross were Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla, and Emerald Falcon. Even just one Lurcher and three-four village thugs against a five person elim team with a Coinshot is reasonably balanced. Zebra saving Meerkat when they could have gotten away with not doing that and Zebra voting Gorilla D3 when the Falcon counterwagon was viable do make me read Zebra as village. It is true that an elim Lurcher saving Rhino requiring a seventh elim to submit a kill and a lack of logging in to check if they got Pewter if they were a Mistborn makes the alternative that the elims shot their own Thug when Beagle could have gotten away with killing someone else very unlikely.
  18. Amethyst Scorpion
    We still have to find out where that fourth tineye message came from. A six person team with Rhino would mean the sixth player is a Mistborn or Rhino is a Thug who's extra life they spent on purpose. Axl could technically be a Mistborn but I don't think that's likely. Rolewise I think Mistborn/Mistborn/Coinshot/Regular/Regular or Mistborn/Coinshot/Tineye|Seeker/Regular/Regular/?. Six people including a Lurcher feels more likely than six with a Thug, but could be other things to. The double Mistborn team might have a weak role but not a Thug. Playerwise, hmm. I think it would have been easy for Heron to jump on Violet or Magenta D5 instead of Beagle, or even bus Chameleon, but the single vote for Beagle was unlikely to kill her with four other trains in existence. New Mouse seems more village than old Mouse, voting for Chameleon D5 when they were still potentially saveable and bringing up the possibility of an elim Coinshot when that wasn't being discussed (although postulating an elim Coinshot and rejecting it without having read the game is notable). 100% convinced of removing Alb/Rhino/Zebra is a lot. A six member team including a Thug is possibly too strong, and Beagle wasting one of her teammate's lives would be costly, but between that and the possibility of Alb or Rhino being Lurcher protected you get a number higher than 0. What happened in the past 11 hours to make you certain? Beagle did get wrapped up too much in PM trusts. I largely stopped thinking about Beagle when she was 'cleared' in PM discussions with Meerkat and didn't start forming an opinion until Meerkat told me he'd been lying about trusting Beagle. I knew on D5 that Meerkat didn't trust the Coinshot but thought he was referring to Chameleon. I did know that Meerkat suggested the kill on Rhino and learned that Beagle was the Coinshot after spending a few hours arguing in PM for v!Coinshot/e!Rhino. The knowledge that the Coinshot had been directed to hit Rhino could have been made public since it was known that Meerkat and Penguin at least were in contact with the Coinshot. Meerkat defending Beagle D6 even to Penguin when he already had a strong suspicion of Beagle makes it reasonable for a villager not to vote Beagle because any personal opinions get overridden by the knowledge that you don't have as much information as someone who thinks Beagle's village. I don't know how much of this could have come out without making it obvious that Beagle was the Coinshot. Not explaining anything about Rhino could be an elim trap, but one that could easily catch villagers as well.
  19. Amethyst Scorpion
    Might as well tell everyone then.
  20. Amethyst Scorpion
    @Salmon Meerkat did Beagle know anything that's not public knowledge?
  21. Amethyst Scorpion
    Looks like a decision's been made about Oxblood Beagle. It would be nice to have Rhino show up and talk, but Meerkat is right that the act of surviving a Coinshot kill is no more suspicious for Rhino than for Albatross.
  22. Amethyst Scorpion
    Meerkat had to have been saved by a Lurcher since he's not a Thug. I don't see why a village Lurcher would have protected Rhino so they're either a Thug/pewter Mistborn or were saved by an elim Lurcher/Iron Mistborn. Hyena being responsible for saving Alb would mean there's an elim who Seeked Falcon N1 and an elim who sent in a Tineye message N1 who are unaccounted for.
  23. Amethyst Scorpion
    I think Cham defended you more than anyone still alive, saying more than once that they don't understand/agree with the suspicions of you. Also notable is Chameleon pushing suspicion on Albatross though did not commit to a vote D2 when there was an actually chance of Albatross getting exed.
  24. Amethyst Scorpion
    Same reasons as I've mentioned before, that you were encouraging people to switch to the main wagons D3 and preferred Falcon over Gorilla. I at one point had you and Hyena as not e/e but I can't remember why I thought that since the two of you never even voted for each other (until D4).
  25. Amethyst Scorpion
    D2 we had 4 Tineye messages: Meerkat, Octopus, Mistborn 1 (Swan presumably), and unclaimed. If Hyena scanned Falcon N1, he couldn't have submitted the fourth Tineye message. Either there's a Spiked Seeker or an unknown player had tin N1. With Falcon being village, let's start off with Pearl Chameleon.
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