Devotary of Spontaneity

Apparently, Eternum changed their opinion on acid buckets somewhere in between these two posts. I don't think that Jondesu should be lynched for choosing to take an acid bucket, so I will vote for Alvron. Also, I'd rather read Alv's reveal post than have a tie.

The map taker, assuming they are an elim, could pass the map on to one of their teammates. It might be worthwhile for some of the five players with crabs to scan the three remaining prime candidates(Monster, Brightness, and A Budgie) to limit the likelihood of that happening.

I received a PM from Orlok asking about Steel and Mac, and it seems that Jondesu did as well.

Cacooo was no stranger to disregard. As a fourth, unwanted child who hadn't even been deemed worthy of a real name, Cacooo was used to being treated as disposable. Upon reaching adulthood and escaping off to the front lines in the war against the chalklings, Cacooo had thought that that attitude would be left behind. Sadly, it seemed that such indifference existed even here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It seems unlikely that the elims would bother to go for the gun. If anything, they'll send a sneaky player to steal the gun. Meanwhile, sending in half the quick soldiers to go for the gun, as Orlok suggests, merely makes it incredibly likely that at least one quick soldier will die without anybody getting the gun. Gun: It's a gun, what do you expect? Use it to kill a player. If more than one person tries to grab the gun, all but one of them will die, and no one gets the gun, since it gets fired during the struggle. @Sart, if multiple sneaky players attempt to steal the gun, would all but one of them die, with the gun being lost?

Signing up as Cacooo Moreau, a chemist who went to war on the front lines along with older siblings Louis, Jenoue, and Aeon.

I will retract my vote on Steeldancer. One lone vote does nobody any good, and since we'll likely be losing a lot of players from inactivity, we can't afford to take casualties from singular votes.

Unless they've been active in PMs, @Droughtbringer, @Pestis the Spider, @livinglegend, @guava, and @GreenRover will die at the end of this cycle if they don't post. Meanwhile, we still have only one pairing and the kill potential of a vote has increased to 7.7%. Last cycle, Steeldancer said that he would be willing to pair up with someone. I would like to know why he didn't end up pairing with someone.

In order to bring the possibility of a lynch over 50%, I will vote for Nils(Kynedath).

From the rules @MonsterMetroid: Each Cycle, Players may send in an order to Pair up with another player for the following cycle. These player Pairs are publicly known. (Both players must send in the order) If a Paired player is attacked, they have a 50% chance to survive the attack(this doesn't protect from the lynch). Each separate action targeting a Paired player will have a 25% chance of affecting the other player as well(excluding the lynch). Pairs only last for one cycle, but may be renewed. Sending in an order to pair up does not count as an action. A player may only have one partner at a time.

I am surprised that there wasn't much pairing up last cycle. It seems to me that pairing up is more beneficial to the village than to the plants, as villagers have a much higher chance of being attacked. If everyone pairs up, there is a 37.5% chance that the elim kill fails completely(50% protection for target*75% chance the partner isn't affected), and only a 12.5% chance of a double kill(50% protection fails*25% chance the partner is affected). This is in contrast to the 100% chance of the target dying if they aren't protected by a fear soother. One main downside of this is if the elims have a fear rioter that can remove the 50% protection before their teammates make a kill, but both fear and anger soothers can protect players from this. Another is that a village pair has a 25% chance of having both members affected by elim passion specialists or joy soothers. Overall though, I still think it's worth it, especially as the limited usefulness of this tactic to elims makes it more likely that they would oppose an offer to pair up. I intend to have a partner every cycle.

What was wrong with my vote count? Valens retracted their vote on Sabine and I don't think the GM can be lynched in this game. It's unlikely that I'll be able to come back before rollover, so if I get lynched, this is it.

Updated vote count: Merb(1)Sickly Prickly Cactus(1)Mr T. Foil Pestis(2)Mac,Merb Mr T. Foil(1)Sabine So far everyone except @Pestis the Spider and @GreenRover have shown up. There are likely a couple of vote manipulators out there, and a single soothed vote would give four players a ~ 36.6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666% chance of dying. Pestis has not been on the Shard since Wednesday, so its possible he won't show up at all.

Cactus missed the deserts of the South. Life had been better there; a warm sun, no ashmounts, and definitely no skaa trying to kill Cactus for their name. Apparently, these skaa were hunting for some nobles with spikes in their eyes. Cactus had a lot of spikes, but none of them were in the eyes. That sounded painful. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What do people think about having everyone partnering up? It seems like the best way to prevent active players from being killed by the Inquisitors. We can't have pairs this cycle, but for next cycle we could give everyone that 50% chance to survive an attack.

Signing up as Cactus. Can a player choose to form multiple pairs? E.g. Darkness pairs with both Sami and Mac. If so, are the percentages rolled separately for each partner? Can both paired effects occur if a player with a pair is attacked? Does the latter paired effect count as a benefit for purposes of fear specialization? How long are cycles? Are the cycles divided into night and day turns? If so, do all actions excluding joy soothing take place at night?

@Jondesu, would it be acceptable for me to commit suicide? If it is, I am more than happy to die today. I scanned Roadwalker and spotted him taking no actions, which implies nothing about his alignment. If I die today, I believe that there are three elims left and that Arinian is not one of them. As long as everyone votes and there are no ties, you should have a 3/4 chance of lynching an elim if these assumptions are correct.

If there was another village snoop, they probably would have targeted me by now, as they've had 3 nights to do so. I'm okay with this plan. I doubt the elims thought I was in contact with a snoop, as PMs are only open at night and I don't get my scan results until after the night is over. Ornstein and livinglegend haven't posted, so they can't take any actions even if they are elims. @Jondesu, if either of them are eliminators, would they scan as having taken actions if an active eliminator puts in a kill order? I won't change my vote, though, as Megasif is looking better even though he somehow missed my roleclaim despite being the next person to post.

We have 9 players left, and of those, there are probably 3 eliminators. Villagers: Alvron-cleared by scan, Droughtbringer-cleared by scan, Devotary-This is me Almost certainly Villager: Arinian-Defused lynch on Alvron when he was alternative candidate Likely Villagers, but possibly not: Steeldancer-voted for Randuir D2 when his guilt was not assured, opposes ties but was temporarily in favor of a tie vote between Alvron and Arinian; Megasif-tried to vote for Randuir N2, first to vote for him D3, supported killing both Alvron and Arinian Most likely to be Eliminators, if only because everyone else is somewhat cleared: Roadwalker-Claims roleless villager, is suspicious of Megasif and Livinglegend; Ornstein-Supported shooting Alvron or Arinian, changed his mind when both were cleared; Livinglegend-Survived yesterday's lynch I will vote on Ornstein, as he seems the most suspicious of the lower three.

Now that Ornstein has replied, Arinian is mostly safe but Alvron is now in danger of being lynched. @Kynedath, @Straw, would you like to take your votes off of Alvron? I also still believe that Steeldancer and Megasif are villagers, and I would like to see Straw's response before deciding whether to vote on him. I will vote on livinglegend for now.

Arin is correct, I did spy on Alv and did not observe him taking an action against me. Arin trying to save Alv at potentially the cost of his own life makes me think that neither Alv nor Arin are Black Sands. Megasif meanwhile, was the first one to go after Rand for voting on A Budgie, so I suspect Sif is village as well. I don't have any solid suspicions at this point, so I won't vote for anyone yet.

I lived! Thank you, anonymous bodyguard. During his many years of life, Erdon had experienced constant daylight. Ever since Black Sands had come to Lossand, the city had twice experienced periods of total darkness. As the sky began to blacken for the third time, Erdon decided to observe the man who claimed to be the sun. Using a ridiculously heavy forty foot ladder to climb up to the top of his favorite building, he settled down to watch Ra and see if he went anywhere. Several hours passed without Ra doing anything suspicious. As light returned to the city, Erdon moved towards the ladder only to be confronted by one of the Black Sands members he was supposed to be looking for. Two swift kicks later, Erdon found himself falling to his death. “Oh well,” he thought. “At least I accomplished something before I died, even if I never found out why it’s been getting dark recently”. When he was rescued by an anonymous hand, Erdon decided that he would devote the rest of his foreshortened lifespan to solving the mystery of the recurring darkness.

I can't clear you, Randuir, because you targeted Walin with an action and he ended up dead. There would be no reason to give a gun to him, as he had marked himself for death by admitting that he was an arms dealer. The only way you could be a villager at this point is if you were a Snoop. In that case, you would know who Walin gave his second gun to. I propose that Randuir announces who received the second gun. If he's wrong, or doesn't respond, the gun holder should then shoot him.

1/14 chance is based there being 14 players other than yourself that you could have targeted with an action last night. While it is true that Darkness was being more active than most players, this is balanced out by the idea that there are likely as many or more eliminators than village snoops and arms dealers.

I was hoping to not have to do this, but as this lynch isn't getting anywhere, I will come out and say that I am a Kor Snoop that observed Randuir targeting Darkness with an action last night. I realize that it is possible Randuir is a village Snoop or Arms Dealer, but as there were 15 players left, I would give this possibility less than a 1/14 chance.

The Ornstein lynch seems to have mostly been paranoia of a last minute lynch on Joe. Now that Asterion is a viable target, I am willing to switch my vote to him. If you're there, would you mind responding @asterion137