Jump to content

Devotary of Spontaneity

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2184

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Devotary of Spontaneity

  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It looks like he saw a vote on me and decided that his vote would lead to a lynch. That seems to fit with his activity in previous cycles, with him voting on players he didn't necessarily suspect to prevent an eliminator controlled lynch. I'm not sure why Joe chose to use a Korathi pendant on him, but that's a question better addressed by @A Joe in the Bush. I'm pretty sure I explained this, but basically: Aman knew he was poisoned. He would not have been informed of that by the GMs of this fact when he arrived in Elantris. Unlike those taken by the Shaod, players who are poisoned cannot be Hoed and their Seons do not become corrupted. Aman did not have a Seon, nor did he acquire the three votes necessary to become Hoed, so he could not have thus deduced that he was poisoned. If Aman had been poisoned by an eliminator, they probably would not have told him. That implies that Aman was poisoned by a villager, which removes a disincentive for an eliminator team to send one of their own to Elantris.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The passphrase can be shared, so an elim starting with it would let their team anonymously hammer a lynch every cycle. On days where the number of voters for a single person is less than the number of elims, that would let them lynch whoever they wanted.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    @Young Bard, I suppose you were the one to remove a vote from Drought? @A Joe in the Bush, does the action order make it possible for Elenion to have been converted the same cycle he died? If not, then that essentially clears Drought as Sophie. It doesn't stop him from being a convert, but as Crimsn is a possible Sophie and a possible convert, we should lynch her first. A Sophie with three lives and the ability to suicide and the ability to kill on her own seems excessive for a twelve player game. With the rule change, we have a good chance of winning. We have at worst a 5-2 advantage, with three villagers having safe roles. One of those three will probably be attacked. We have a knight who can block one attack. The upgraded version of the knight isn't really better than the original at this point.The steward and the lover have vote manipulation, with the steward being better than the lover in this regard. The upgraded steward can scan for converts, while the upgraded lover can block actions, including kills. It's all up to Randuir.this cycle. @Droughtbringer, please come back if you aren't evil.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The previous two day cycles have only shown evidence of two prince/princesses. On Day 1, Honey Badger and Dalinar had their votes moved, and it was Droughtbringer and King Cole on Day 2.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So we have less than seven hours left in the day, and Droughtbringer hasn't been online for ten hours. The chances of him being a convert are low, as he was one of the players potentially protected from conversion, and he is fairly inactive in a game that started with a contribution crusade lynch. The longer I think about it, the more I believe that a Sophie who knew they were going to be inactive would have converted on cycle 1. I'm not going to change my vote at this time, but I do hope that we can do more this cycle than wait around for rollover.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Aman knew he was poisoned. He was not informed by the GMs that this was the case. If he'd had a Seon or if he acquired three votes, he would have known for sure that he had been poisoned. Since neither of those were true, it follows that he poisoned himself, his poisoner claimed to him, or he was so confident he hadn't been taken by the Shaod that he had no fear of being Hoed.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Since Aman didn't have a Seon and never accumulated three or more votes, that would suggest that he probably wasn't poisoned by an eliminator. I would guess that Aman either self-poisoned, or was told that he had been poisoned. In the later case, or if someone passed him a vial of poison, it's probably safe for that player to claim. Aman starting with a poison vial would invalidate Pyromancer's hypothesis that players with roles have one item while the roleless start with two. I don't know why a villager would have poisoned a priest, though. It's possible that Aman merely assumed that he had been poisoned, but he sounded so sure when he declined to share his Hoed mantra on the grounds that he had been poisoned.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We have all of three votes so far. I think it's time for the person who passed their Derethi pendant to Elenion to claim. That won't confirm that Elenion isn't the Odiv, but it will make it less likely. On the Jeskeri side, people were suspicious of Lopen for being the first one to assume that Aman used the pendant on Araris, but Drake was the first one to cast a vote before we got confirmation. That doesn't mean that either of them are evil, as Aman clearly stated who he was going to attack. When Aman was alive, he told me that he knew he'd been poisoned. This suggests that 1.He poisoned himself, 2.The person who poisoned him informed him, and 3.Players sent to Elantris are informed of whether they were poisoned or taken by the Shaod. Option 1 would mean that Aman started with a role and two items, or that someone passed him a poison vial. I don't know about option 3, as I neglected to ask how he knew. Does anyone who has PM'd Aman, Arinian, or HH know the answer to this? If players are not informed, Aman probably wasn't poisoned by an eliminator team. If players are informed, we can find out what happened to HH and any future Elantrians. i feel like if there was a Jeskeri Elantrian, they probably wouldn't have had a teammate poison themselves. If there weren't any starting Jeskeri Elantrians, that would make self-poisoning much more likely. Ultimately, my opinion on Arinian is dependent on whether any Jeskeri began in Elantris and on how HH ended up in Elantris. If they were both poisoned, I would vote on HH. If just Arinian was poisoned and he turns out to be a villager, the chances of a Jeskeri Elantrian goes up. If he's a cultist, the chances go down. Until I get more information, I will vote for Arinian. He's not the most suspicious, but I think we'll learn more from this lynch than if we kill Walin or Straw, and I don't think Lopen is evil. Arinian(2): Steeldancer, Devotary Devotary(2): Dalinar, Seonid Walin(1): Elenion Straw(1): Lopen Lopen(1): Kidpen
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Drought(3): Orlok, Elenion, Randuir Elandera(1): Crimsn Elenion(1): YoungBard Orlok(1): Eternum Edit: Crimsn(1): Devotary Drought never provided his analysis, and it's late in the cycle. If the cycle gets extended for 24 hours, I'm going to look at him again. Players who definitely don't have vote protection: Orlok, YoungBard, Elandera, Crimsn. If we get a vote on YoungBard, then everybody could conceivably be immune to conversions.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So if we do manage to lynch Sophie, we'll end up with six Machineborn against a single bot, assuming Sophie started two lives. That should be winnable, especially if Randuir can self-protect. Would you intervene if we were about to lynch the Steward? Did you learn their identity before or after you suggested lynching them? Elandera has been on your list of suspects for a couple of cycles now, and she's posted a fair amount more than Drought or Eternum. What are your reasons for keeping her as uncleared but then voting for Drought? As Joe's clarification means that Sophie will likely die today, I don't think roleclaiming this cycle is a good idea unless you're about to be lynched. Next cycle, a mass role claim will be helpful to clear out the convert list. If you can self-protect, Randuir, it might be a good idea to do so to help ensure that all three roles stay confirmed good. Out of our seven villagers, at least three of them are immune to conversion, and that number could potentially swell up to five. Despite that, the chances that a conversion will fail is low. It's good that we managed to get a tie vote for second place in this regard, but there are still enough players without vote protection that three attempted conversions have a high chance of getting the necessary one success. Finally, we have a tie vote between Droughtbringer and Elandera, with singular votes on Elenion and Eternum. Drought appears to be a suspect largely because everyone else has been considered soft-cleared. That seems to be the case for most of the candidates, although Orlok has yet to garner any votes despite being on several players' suspect lists. I see Drought and Elandera as more likely to be Sophie than Elenion or Eternum, but I still don't know about Orlok.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Since Randuir apparently only learned that he failed to protect someone an hour before news of this reached @Young Bard, there's a decent chance that he can confirm Randuir's claim. If not, I can tag @Droughtbringer, @Elandera, and @Crimsn-Wolf, who have not yet been summoned to view Randuir's claim. Nine players left, seven Machineborn against Sophie and a bot. @A Joe in the Bush, if we lynch Sophie with one life left today and she tries to convert, will the conversion occur? If the answer is no she'll almost certainly attempt a conversion. If she does attempt to convert, we'll end up with five Machineborn against two bots, or four Machineborn if we mislynch. That puts us within two cycles of a loss. If the answer is yes and we mislynch today, Sophie probably won't convert, leaving us at 5-2, which again is one cycle away from a loss unless the knight gets lucky. The players who claim may well die, making our safe roles no longer safe, but it might be worth it. We are going to need to narrow down the convert list before we get to the endgame. Unless Randuir gets counterclaimed, the main Sophie suspects are <Drought, Orlok, Elandera, possibly Eternum> while the possible converts are <Eternum, Elenion, Devotary, YoungBard, Elandera, CrimsnWolf, Drought>, with one of the italicized players granted immunity by votes.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It was possible to lynch an inactive with only two votes, but we won’t be able to do the same for an active Sophie. I believe midnight PST is late enough in the morning for both Bort and Randuir that they could hammer at least a tie, should either of them be Sophie. Randuir has been the only one so far to comment on Orlok’s tentative idea to lynch the steward. While doing so might be better than lynching a machineborn, it would cost us a cycle, which we don’t have too many of. Randuir’s disapproval of this plan makes me lean towards a village read, as Sophie would benefit from having the steward claim. Bard, why are you removing Eternum from suspicion for being too inactive but not Drought? Drought has made only two posts, one of them merely saying he was there. However, a tie vote makes it difficult to lynch Sophie. I won’t be able to post again, and the whole thread seems to be dead with less than an hour left in the cycle. Neither Drought or Eternum posted again, though the latter viewed the thread within the last hour. I suppose I will vote for Bort , and hope Elenion and YoungBard can work something out.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Aman and Eternum both died and were revealed to be villagers, so the report was almost certainly accurate.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Aman told me, Pyromancer, Eternum, and probably Wilson that the Gyorn converted an Elantrian. Since two of those are confirmed villagers, essentially the only alternative is that the Elantrian in question false-claimed being converted, which would mean they're probably evil.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The writeup indicates that a Jeskeri pendant was used to kill Eternum, so that's one mystery down. The other notable thing about the write up is that there are only four converts, where there were three at the beginning of the day cycle. This could mean that either the Shu-Dereth team is holding back or the Gyorn didn't pick an Odiv on night 1. If the Gyorn picked an Odiv Night 2, the options are the third original convert, the Elantrian who was converted last night, or Elenion if he didn't pass on his pendant.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I wanted to vote on someone who had posted, had yet to be voted on, and hadn't recently died in LG44. At the time, that was you, Elandera, and YoungBard. Out of those three, I chose YoungBard. I thought a tied vote put him up to possibly be lynched and I saw his accusation of me as being village indicative, so I switched my vote to Droughtbringer, who had since posted. Currently, Randuir is up for the lynch. I would like to see more from @Droughtbringer and @Eternum before I place a final vote.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I do believe that Elenion did not reread the rules before posting his projections, because his original one wasn't correct either. It assumed that Sophie could both kill and convert on the same cycle, which I'm fairly sure is not the case. It can't hurt to get this confirmed by @A Joe in the Bush, though. Since being purposefully misleading about the rules isn't the best strategy for Sophie and a Sophie!Elenion probably would have known those particular rules, I'm leaning more village on Elenion.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Did we badly misread this, @A Joe in the Bush? This really looks like it says that Sophie cannot kill unless there's a bot on her team.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Why are we tying the vote on Orlok?
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I do prefer making observations to putting together analysis. This is generally the same for me regardless of alignment. I've never been one to post suspicions lists, though I can try to do so if you want. Eternum has also claimed to be a Seon holder, on page 25 on the locked thread.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I saw the original version of these rules when Joe posted the idea. I then assumed that this particular rule wouldn't have changed between then and now. Vote Tally: Elenion(1): Orlok Crimsnwolf(1): Bort YoungBard(1): Devotary Devotary(1): YoungBard We should probably have more than four votes on four separate to take advantage of the immunity to conversion mechanic. I'm more inclined to believe YoungBard isn't Sophie now, so I will change my vote to Droughtbringer.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Person4.exe opened its eyes. The emperor commanded its presence. Melhi's bots were becoming a nuisance for the emperor, and it was the job of Machineborn like Person4.exe to clean up such nuisances. The other guards had names and personalities, but Person4.exe knew that it was merely a purposefully inferior replica of Liveborn such as the emperor. The entity known to the rest of Alornia as Mirb knew that it had been created solely to serve as a background element in the emperor's kingdom. That knowledge evinced no rebellious thoughts. Person4.exe had been programmed to show absolute obedience to its emperor, and absolute obedience would be provided. I see two broad strategies for our secondary lynch. One is to ensure a specific player does not get converted by concentrating our votes on two different players. The other is to spread out the votes among the active players to make it so if Sophie tries to convert one of them and fails, she won't know for sure whether that player has a role. The Steward and/or the lover can mess with either of these plans, but as they're both confirmed village I don't think they'll use their powers just because they can. As the voting so far has consisted of three votes, two of them pokes, I think I'll go with the second plan for now. Of the six active players with no votes on them, I will put my vote on YoungBard.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Sophie can't kill anyone herself, so we would end up with 2 converts out of a total of 8 players, with the village likely having the majority of the roles. Three lives for Sophie would definitely be excessive, though.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Lopen voted for Araris in this post, and never retracted. Yet, Lopen's name does not appear in the vote tally. Do you know anything about this, @TheMightyLopen?
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Kidpen's vote caused one of the extra votes, and the other one was caused either by a second monarch or someone who had the secret passphrase. I'm far more confused by how Pyromancer's vote was moved and why Lopen's name does not appear in the vote tally. The three current converts are Elenion, the Elantrian, and the mysterious third convert. If there is currently an Odiv, it has to be that third convert. If not, the Gyorn could attempt to swear Elenion or the Elantrian as their Odiv. Elenion can always pass on his pendant to prevent becoming Odiv, but that won't stop the Jeskeri if they are interested in killing converts.
×
×
  • Create New...