Archer

I feel like we both vocally read each other as village when you were alive, but I respect that the cross reads are what counts. I'm tempted to offer that we do Burnt, Coco, (my preference for the remaining elim), but I don't know who the third person is yet. Probably Doc. Scanned (blocked) TwinStorm N2 and nothing happened. Coco had -5 for Bremen L1, and claimed no mask L2, so they're certainly at 50+. Burnt could be at 50 even minus 20 for Scents. @Burnt Spaghetti what else did Scents tell you L2?

I was hoping E!you would be a little more aggressively in favor of the flip both philosophy, but you're not so far. If we assume that this is pre-planned, you pushing Coco/me as a team coupled with a MF scan makes sense to get the D3 mix. They needed an elim team proposal that worked with the remaining players, hence why you push v!Stick over v!Coco D3. My guess right now is they assume Coco and Mistfallen are valid mixes, then Burnt can either buy invincibility or they're not tightly tied to other teammates. Speaking of teammates, it's interesting that E!Burnt presented this information. Probably because she really has Scents, to uncomplicate the lie, but I do think preserving the deepwolf is a factor. Or misleading us on rupee count if she doesn't have it. Wonko had Bunny Mask L1, we assumed that contributed to their death. I know I soured on them L2, but MF and I are as closely tied as Coco and I, so I'm surprised you zeroed in on me and Coco. I also feel shocked and betrayed they Bremened me L1, no explanation there. You mentioned in the doc that I could have vote manipped D2 instead of tagging Coco, and I could have self exploded early. Both of those forgo the opportunity to scan N2, so I made the correct call to save my charges.

There's also: 4. Revenge! They risked being caught by the Scent mask to kill him out of spite. (Seriously, v!Scent mask should have been a bigger problem.) I'll note that the best kill choice if I'd waited until N3 to detonate was NKing me. But if you don't believe I'm village, killing a conf vil as a backup option in case I didn't detonate was the next best play. Again, unnecessary after D3, but elims blindly following instructions from their doc leader might have messed up.

I had Bremen and used it on no one N1 because it takes a round to equip. I then hit TS N2, followed by Araris (hence the explosion). It's a good kill because Ash was already in the doc, so no extra information was gleaned. We're left with a few options: 1. Incompetence. Implies elims not paying much attention, although I suspect that this was a major discussion point L1, so it's a big miss. Maybe E!Araris left instructions to submit the NK and that got misinterpreted by his remaining teammates when the timeline changed. The profile is pinch hitters and people who are chronically absent. 2. E!Mistfallen wanted to avoid a fear exe by allowing Ashbringer to take Stone uncontested. 3. E!Burnt holding Scents wanted to have an NK to blame Mistfallen for. (They're not necessarily e/v, by the way.) Edit: Another Burnt option is a teammate has Scents and she's claiming to have it, knowing there won't be a counter claim, to make her rupee count seem lower.

I'm trying to keep you alive here, don't question it Our chance to exe TS was last loop. We didn't, so now we have to ignore them and hope for the best. I'm looking at high rollers, and Burnt half heartedly voting Stick at EOD D3 felt off. Math right now might be that we can kill Burnt and Ash gets Stone uncontested. Standing by as the Scent stuff plays out. Friendly reminder to go buy masks, by the way. Mistfallen, care to join me in voting Burnt? Edit: counter proposal MF, no elim could get Stone, so they didn't care that Ash would have it be cause they're not in a position to contest it.

How is that when you've been post maxing and didn't get a mask? @Wahrheitswächter my math man, was the NK necessary? Burnt

My death made the N3NK unnecessary, so Ash just gets a free 50 rupees? D1 we should be conscious of blocking someone from getting the Stone Mask. Show of hands, who has 50 rupees? I had 45 when I died, but am back down to 20

What a nice vote count. It'd be a shame if something happened to it... Stick TwinStorm

This is cool! Bad time to be wrong. I think Coco wins the tiebreaker Coco 3: Wahr, MF, Ash Stick 3: Coco, Doc, Araris MF 1: Stick TS 1: Archer Care to intervene, Burnt?

How confident are you that it's not currently a 50/50 shot? Coco-Burnt vs you and Doc, for example. Even if we kill one of them, 33% odds to make the game come down to a coinflip is rough, to say nothing of 66%. E!invincible guy submits the NK every round, so we'd have no info to go by L3 in this scenario. I guess it depends on your confidence level. Killing elims is always better than hedging, but my confidence is very low today. I'm glad we have the same vibes based rupee tracking system :D. Regarding preemptive elim deaths, all we know about them is they gunned for the win D1, so they seem aggressive. But if E!Dive dies D1, surely you reconsider. I could buy E!Wonko doing that, although there's an opportunity cost with rupees. Another thing I've been thinking about is the benefit of being out of sight, out of mind. Being able to hide for a week makes you less likely to be exed imo. If we win the loop, I'd probably just repeat all of our exes, but there's ways to make us pay for doing that.

You have to plan for one elim being in the deadpool, then of the living, there being three confirmed villagers, one invincible elim, and only four suspects we can actually vote for. We get to kill three of the four, but if one of them is TS or Hael, it's a pure coinflip. The dead pool has no invincible players, so it's within our control.

See, I'm not crazy. TS is a valid choice! That's good distancing, nice pull (Side note: I think you read me as randomly hopping because you tend to focus on the reasons stated in the post where the vote is cast. My reasoning tends to come separately, but is usually internally consistent. I do also stab vote as well to drive engagement. The key with those is they're usually temporary to get new information as efficiently as possible.) The idea of me going in on purpose feels like something I'd do if an elim had been exed already. I also think they're village, but Coco is probably getting exed L3D1 if it's a loop loss, so we might as well check them now

You can't say that and not spill the tea! Soooo everyone but Araris? When TUM offered to die, we all politely obliged. I've offered twice and no one's supported it. I'm slightly worried about diluting the elim suspects in the dead pool, but winning the loop trumps everything. Better to over hedge than have no room for error and too many choices in the living pool. I'm interested in you retracting your vote on Stick, and being hesitant to apply it in the first place. Your aggressive playstyle has been dialled down of late. There's a vacuum right now. Araris and I were pulled as options, so people are voting me by proxy, or waiting to see what materializes. I'll repeat that winning the loop trumps everything. But we clearly aren't confident enough in any suspect to throw away other considerations. I feel good enough about our 50 rupee holders that I don't think it's majority elim. So I'd rather play the odds with invincibility mask by keeping them all intact (ignore when I said to ignore that line of thought). Therefore, TwinStorm. * @Araris Valerian sorry to have to ask, but it'd be good to have on the record. Is your mask equipped? And for the record, I'm fully committed to targeting Araris this loop, and you can exe me if I don't.

Yes, via glorious explosion I shopped at the budget mask store, so my mask being successful is indistinguishable from the NK not being submitted at all. Whereas scratch and sniff can be almost certain, when they have a positive result. It's most important to get a read from that. The elims aren't going to have a heavily suspected teammate submit the NK. There's also some meta about players without masks have a free action, so they're more likely to submit the NK, although I don't know how many people that affects. TwinStorm not submitting the NK is usefulish info, but it doesn't mean they're not evil. Forgot he existed lol

I wanted to see if I could block the NK. The dead really like Stick huh I have good feelings about Burnt, MF, Coco, and Doc. Hang on, easy out, TwinStorm

I'm at the point in the game where MF, Coco, Burnt, and Stick all seem both suspicious and above reproach. About that..... Ashbringer, is the dead doc doing rupee tracking? It'd be very funny to exe TUM again just to get him to 50. What's everyone's elim team guesses? Can include dead or living players. Wahr, what's the math on whether they need to NK N3 if there's no Blast Mask explosion?

I liked that play. Good use of being conf village Ghosts called to say I match the description (That's a dead ringer) There's film of taking Bremen and sticking to it (That's masking tape) Hecklers, like Ap, you're all fired (That's The Apprentice) Let me break it down like Kendrick (I'm better than Drake) I'm like a pitcher in his prime (I don't need TJ) I've got mainstream thoughts (I'm anti-divergent) So why am I stuck in your head? (That's in-Sane)

I used Bremen Mask on TwinStorm and the NK still went through. I mostly wanted to avoid hitting Scent Mask by mistake. If we lose the round and know there's three elims in Coco, Stick, Hael, Doc, Burnt, Mistfallen, and TwinStorm, what's a team composition that makes sense? I'd like to shoot within that range. Stick

If everyone goes for Stone, only one person gets it, and the rest can continue saving. The other masks can be problematic, but the one that makes you unvotable concerns me the most. Don't put too much stock into that post, it was a bit of a contrived pretense. D3, I'd like to consider whether fear exing some rich folks makes sense, especially in a world where two high rollers die to the NK, but I'm leaning towards that being a tiebreaker rather than the crux of a vote justification. * Ignore my previous post about Araris, I am trying to stay alive by acting like a predictable patsy. (Gut now says Araris is village, but it doesn’t matter for optimization purposes.) I have the Bremen Mask, and am willing to target Blast Mask!Araris. Our possibilities, ranked from best to worst outcome, are: –No Blast Loop win: N2NK/D3Ex/N3 NK: 2+ of 6 suspects are evil and we get two attempts. –Kaboom Loop win: With N2NK/D3Ex/N3NK: 2+ of 8 suspects are evil. (Up to 100% of survivors are village, so ignore them). We have two loops to get it right. –Kaboom Loop loss: With N2NK/D3Ex/No N3 NK: 3+ of 5 suspects are evil (3/8 alive are confvil). –No Blast Loop loss: N2NK/D3Ex/No N3 NK: 3+ of 7 suspects are evil (3/10 alive are confvil). I’m assuming a cooperative, v!Araris, who is willing to optimize the ratios at their own expense. If Araris unequips and we lose the loop, after exing him and I, you’re left with one guess within 3e+:2v suspects. If we win the loop, it’s two guesses in 2e+:4v suspects, functionally 2e+:2v if you remove Wonko and N2NK victim. Targeting Araris D3 may catch Araris before they can unequip, if they somehow forgot to during N2. Targeting Araris N3 forces the elims to bet on me acting or to NK someone themselves N3 to get to their win ratio if we’ve only killed one elim so far. As Araris’ competence is a fair assumption, to preserve his ability to vote D3 and for dramatic effect, I propose doing it N3. OOA is not an issue because Bremen comes before unequipping, Scents, and the NK. Okay, now spend rollover thinking of other people to murder at sunrise please and thanks.

I'm going to strongly advocate for exing Araris tomorrow, mask or not. Our biggest concern L3D1 is the mask of invincibility, since they become immune to being voted on. Coco, Burnt, Mistfallen, and maybe Doc, Stick have the funds to get it. It's best to keep all of them alive so we maximize our chances of getting it, since we can't confidently say which individual(s) is evil. Best to play the odds in a larger group than risk skewing the odds with a bad kill. Of the poorer group (myself included), Hael and Drake are trusted, and TwinStorm is unreadable. That leaves Araris. Not rich enough to be one of our chances of getting the 50-rupee masks, and the least trusted of the remaining. I'm 50/50 on whether he fake claimed to win the loop at the expense of outing himself (assuming v!TJ and v!Dive). It'd be an effective strat. We'll unpack that tomorrow. I'm working on a larger ISO for tomorrow, stay tuned. I deeply regret switching my vote based on what I've got so far, but I'll lay it out in more detail once I sort out my notes. * The fountain was warm. After a moment, the trickle slowed to a stop. Ouae stepped out of the water, feeling relieved. "I made cupcakes, but the recipe I used must have been British. These are closer to fairy cakes." She stuffed them in her apron for later. "I wonder how the search party is doing..."

Which one, the N64? (I'll show myself out) Food for thought, besides cupcakes, is whether we think we've got two elims yet. If we have, adding more people to the dead doc dilutes the pool of suspects when we win the loop. If we don't, the more the merrier, and our targeters should consider hitting Araris.

"Just so we're clear, time travel exists?" "Yup." "Probably to patch up some plot holes. That's just lazy writing. Almost as lazy as a clickbait title." "No Blast Mask accidents yet! Did you hear Ap disappeared? That's exciting." "Three of my friends literally died and came back to life, if he's dead, it's at most a temporary inconvenience." Ouae began baking cupcakes for the surprise party at the temple.

@coco.pudding wanna self pres on TJ so I don't have to worry about Ashbringer hammering. Again.

I think TJ probably dies right now on tiebreaker. Would you prefer not to exe Araris because you trust them, or because you think they'll explode later?

@|TJ| Coco said something about suspecting someone as being evil for being pinch hit for, which is the type of meta gamey thought a villager has. Speaking of, welcome TS! I'm of the mind that we should do whatever it takes to win the loop, even if we end up with a larger suspect pool because of it. Three exes, two blast kills, and Wonko is 6 in the doc. 3 are confirmed good. That leaves 7 out of the loop. Or 7/6 with an unnecessary NK. Assume v!Araris/Wonko/Exploder but a win, you probably repeat the exes to check if that works, then L4 can revise of it doesn't. Probably victory. If it's an L2 loss, there's 7 suspects, of which 3+ are evil, and you need to hit 2/3. Tough in a vacuum, but practically speaking, reads and team analysis should help. And we have agency with our next two exes. Araris TJ high effort when you're under pressure is sus. @Araris Valerian please end the round with a vote so Bremen can target you