Archer
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Everything posted by Archer
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New theory: there's no elim doc, and instead one of the empires is entirely made of elims. We both know the answer to that already The options were you're doc buddies (1 in 3 chance, so unlikely), you'd peeped their profile (which at the time I thought I'd checked you hadn't - but actually I think the reason you weren't there was because the Shard removed the Who's Viewed Your Profile thing?), or you had some kind of OOG interaction. I didn't remember them ever stating their gender, so it was worth checking to see if you'd come up with something week like you'd PMed them. Uhhh... is everyone else doing this? Because that's not a good approach when it's likely any given doc has an elim in it. It seems more logical to assume your doc does have an elim in it and use that as a shortlist to try and figure out who it is. Or if there's e-e interactions in there. I support sharing general strategy to make sure everyone's armed with the info they need to contribute effectively, but the default should be to over-conceal, not over-share. Aman seemed open to the idea of role claiming, saying basically that 'should we claim and the most powerfully endowed person dies, we'll know our doc is compromised, so we can ensure accountability'. Seemed overly confident that it wouldn't hurt. By the way, everyone has agreed to a party reveal, so I wonder if @JNV and @The Sibling would like to weigh in on this, as fellow Teos. (Full list: Aman, Archer, XP, JNV, The Sibling). Any other empires want to share? :3 1. I want to kill you and no one else has expressed an interest in that yet, so I'm trying to persuade people to join me. :P. 2. It felt like you were over-committing to your vote when you didn't need to, which is an elim tell. As for my under-committing to a read of Thaid, I was ready to sus them for a playstyle change but then got to thinking that one, criticizing positive playstyle changes isn't a great approach, and two, faced with similar pressure at a similar time in the cycle, I'm not sure how I'd have reacted differently. If I was an elim with a fear of attention, I might have tried some more aggressive victim claiming, but otherwise, I can see v!me basically just asking about it and moving on. So the net read is null, unfortunately. 3. C1, attention kills. People may leave their arbitrary votes where they are if they don't come up with a better place for them, and at EoD, even if a wagon is a joke train, if it starts to collapse, folks enjoy propping them back up again because well, why is the wagon going away - seems sus. So you need to kill the wagon early. But arguing for Thaid's innocence will draw make his voters dig in their heels. So the best move is to add votes the wagon so people think the elims are piling onto it to secure a mix. Or they'll think it's big enough now that them leaving won't reduce its viability significantly, which then positions you to kill it later with your own vote removal. Once a wagon hits five votes people start thinking the odds are good an elim is on it, and back off. 4. Asking for five seems like you're setting Mat up for failure - either he complies and you sus him for being too eager to please, or he declines, and you sus him for not having enough reasons to support his position. 5. My biggest issue with the multiple voting thing is that if you lose internet connection and that's your final post, you leave the GM with unclear intentions to decipher. SE convention states that your final red text in a post will be used as your vote, but it makes life easier on them if you green text retract all reds that aren't going to be final. Maybe you've already cleared this up with Ashbringer, but if you haven't, I imagine they'd prefer you to use another color. Because you can't actually triple vote. From a player perspective, I find it odd. I could have said it was performative and disguises your intentions so you can slip some distancing in and move to an arbitrary player later, but it's more that my gut clocked it and sometimes that's enough to catch someone. I was going to go respond to some of the other exe options, but I'm happy with this vote and need to go eat now, so they're a problem for later
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-Unvoting Thaid because although they seemed a little more direct than usual in response to my made up pressure, they didn't panic or anything so I'm not getting a strong read on them either way. -Disagree with Mat that Striker isn't e-e with Thaid because extra unexplained votes can scare villagers off a train because they suspect elim bandwagoning. -I'd like to know how Kas learned Shadow's gender. -JNV is clearly evil. Using math is an obvious elim tell. :P. (Cool outcome though!) -Skimmed the thread, but I just realized I might not be on tomorrow morning, so my voter's moving to Aman. Here's my pitch. In the Teo doc I felt they oversold their belief in e!Thaid, fourth vote can be e-e for the same reasons as a fifth, they suggested in our doc that we assume our doc has no moles and have been fairly pro information sharing. I also found them asking Mat for exactly five reasons was an odd request, and trying to double vote seemed weird too. Aman (Thaid lad)
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Akwaaaaaaaaaaard! but then how will we discover things :/ Worst case scenario I can envision is the elims have a faction doc(s) they aren't in and they try to hamstring it by killing off most of its members. Assuming they're fairly evenly distributed, I imagine they'll be able to figure out most of who is in what doc, so us claiming is more likely to close the information gap than to expose much hmmmmmmmmm hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaam!
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me trying to learn roulette be like So you don't think making your opening post be about RP is suspicious? EDIT: Daily reminder that breaking ranks is against the rules. Put another way, it's an in-faction
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Who's that, I'm Atashbringer
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Thanks for your follow-up! To better answer your question, you can report which Empire you're in, but there's no rule that such a statement needs to be true... yet. Akwaaaaaaaaaaard! EDIT: because that opening post was classic elim, you have to admit
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Good question! I appreciate your interest in the mechanics of this game. Curiosity will serve you well, especially when reading the rulesets of two games with similar mechanics back to back. Devo, we need to talk! Smiley face with tongue sticking out! Zaraaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
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Hello, playahs! After Ashbringer was horribly murdered in the rules post, the job of leading you has fallen to me, Atashbringer! Feel free to give a holler if ya need anything. I promise to be a good leader and never Rick Rule any of you. Thaid
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Nobody else feels like voting, huh. Okay, plot twist: Striker TJ
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well I was thinking that, but I wasn't going to say it out loud... :P. I figured it was a case of the exe is trending towards killing an elim, at which point the win probability dips dramatically. 2:8 is much worse than 3:7 with an outnumber wincon. The most logical alternative to defending Araris is they committed to a bus of Araris. So Stick is evil because Araris distanced from them and they voted on him in return. But I wouldn't join you on that one. Then as Mat has said, what's the difference between me and Striker? Araris had the weird move from Mat to Striker, surely there was a reason, right?
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I think it's because e!they was a more active voter and v!they is known for retracting if they aren't sure. Easy enough to fake, but at least they did something. I still believe the elims were committed to a Stick exe, as seen by TJ's vote, with the backup CW being Thaid, as seen by Bort or Xino's, then it looks like Striker was laying the groundwork to move but held his ground because he was forced to when the other wagons collapsed. The votes fit very nicely into a TJ-Striker-Bort team right composition and I've got zero incentive to move mine now.
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Until Stick pointed it out, I'd entirely missed that Araris was an Elder. But in light of that, while I'd be open to hearing village Elder counter claims (so long as y'all balance the benefit against the cost of confirming you aren't a Thug), being an Elder isn't necessarily village indicative. The GM secured the mechanic with the e!Elder and after that can be as trolly as they like with the distro. I am pretty uncomfortable with the fact that I suspect there's three elims and I'm down to three suspects, which is why I mentioned my second tier suspicions. TUN in particular I'd like to interrogate, or their pinch hitter if they're who requested one. The problem with an intentional bus is either Araris confirm's Stick's alignment with their vote, or they controlled the thread enough to move the exe to Araris. It was 4-2-1-1 or so. Why did Araris make it 5 and make the bus harder? And are you saying they had two or three people on the Stick wagon that moved, because otherwise they just got really lucky that a bunch of villagers changed their minds. And why give up the C1 mix and not fang Araris instead to take advantage of the mechanic? I'm open to the idea of an elim bussing Araris when forced to by the EOD circumstances, with his blessing given at the start of the game, but the execution seems contrived if it was a planned setup. If you assume e!Stick, why not just let it play out. They'll be suspected soon if you don't NK them. Also, see last game for examples of v!me open wolfing. :P. According to Illwei, anyway. Related note, Striker saying they don't think the wagons were all village is a red flag. It was v-v-e, that's pretty good. There's parallels to TJ saying maybe e!Stick. E-e-v seems unlikely.
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Unfortunately for v!you, I've got a bunch of solid village reads, so the pressure shifts to the remaining people. If you take out the Araris voters, JNV who had some good reads progression on Mat in our PM, TUN for inactivity, Orlok for the vote retraction, Aman who made a very confident request for everyone to summarize the thread for them that I assigned a light gut read, there really isn't many people left. So I apologize if I'm barking up the wrong tree. I'm down to you, TJ, and Thaid. Although I'd probably bring Aman, Striker, and TUN back into the net fairly easily. When someone's desperately trying to survive, as Stick was, that usually makes me more suspicious of them if they PM me. Because elims tend to care more about living. I would be suspicious that they plan on getting a mix off by using my vote, and would hesitate to shift my vote for them if asked directly unless there's a strong difference in how much I suspect them compared to someone else. It feels a little to cooperative unless you trusted them, which is different from not suspecting them. And it's convenient your vote ended up on a place that would have benefited the elims to keep Araris as a distant third option.
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-The origins of bus are the phrase 'throw them under a bus', if that helps -There's the possibility that e!Stick was a Thug and therefore more valuable to the team, or that Araris had better played a low info game to that point - but why put so much effort into the wagon change? Unless everyone on the CWs was evil and would be implicated. It's just such over engineering that it doesn't seem likely. -I'm willing to read Orlok's vote as not evil for now. -Interesting to hear that Bort was influenced by Stick. I suppose you were hard committed to v!Stick then? -Oh yeah, I was ninja'd by Stick's Araris vote. I think I knew it was a possibility though, since they were looking for anything that stuck, so I wasn't spooked by it. -I do like Striker's initial Araris vote, but am held back from a strong village read by the reasons Orlok articulated.
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It's internally consistent if you guess e!Thaid, since I've defended them with my arguments. It'd be weird for me to vote Araris over Stick though, if you assume it was to defend e!Thaid. I'm giving Thaid a fairly long leash because they read as disconnected, not evil to me. In the example of the Mat PM, I think it was a case of them not knowing how the mechanic worked and being talked into an odd position on it. You'd think if they were parroting the elims' position, which I don't believe Araris necessarily reflected if he knew he'd be potentially killed C1 as it'd be better to spread your opinions out, he'd be more subtle about it. Saying he never wants it to be used is too extreme to me to be reading from the evil script. I accuse Absolutely TJ of being afraid to move their vote during EOD. And I'll note that Bort perfectly fits the profile of elim team member if you suspect they lacked the resources near EoD to pull off the preffered outcome of a mix.
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I meant we should assume no one else was the sacrifice and not look for signs people were, which basically agrees with you. Although I think there's some slight value in guessing Araris was, mainly relating to his level of comfort being killed. If you reread his posts, he was very low info in terms of connections to other players that didn't seem intentional. By the way, I was discussing distributions with Araris early in the game and had completely forgotten there's a Thug role, and he brought it up to say that he'd bet on elim team of two with a veteran or a three person elim team without. The elims were at least thinking about veterans. Not to answer for them, but even a one vote margin seems pretty close when there's unaccounted for likely voters about. I read it as them responding to viable pressure.
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Rollcall question: what did everyone end up submitting as their Fang vote? I voted no. Araris came up with the mechanic so he might have felt some guilt about asking another person to sacrifice themselves for it. He’s fairly selfless and would have been one of the better assets to have in an advisory role in an elim doc. This isn’t uncharacteristic of them, but he also kept his suspicions fairly close to his chest, not posting a reads list or making loose accusations. There’s enough there that I think we must assume Araris was the designated sacrifice. At the time Araris voted Stick, it pushed them into 5 vote territory, with the next best train having 2. I think this is village indicative of Stick, and implies confidence in the stability of the Stick train that obviously didn’t pan out. That’s key, because we can guess that the most stable votes would be the evil ones, and the people who undercut the train Araris’ hoped would win, and therefore his evil vote being revealed to have been on it wouldn’t matter because the victim is dead, should be looked at positively. That gives me a village read on Xino, and worse vibes from TJ who didn’t immediately move after Araris’ vote. Striker is mlerp because they asked for a VC, which implies willingness to move. If Araris is going to be Fanged, would e!Striker say this, “Okay, I think this is accurate now. I was going to potentially switch to Thaid, but now Araris is up for the exe as well and I'm half tempted to secure an exe on Stick. Or just find a way to tie it between Thaid and Stick”? I’m genuinely torn, because Striker might have been distancing initially, then forced to stay put when the Araris wagon came in. But also, why not bus better? Mat being the third vote on Araris improves my read on them. Something about them is off, but I’d rather hit say TJ than Mat. I understand Striker camping for the tie potential, but TJ is obviously around and he keeps not voting for Araris. EoD looked pretty quiet, I’m wondering what the elims were planning since they were going to lose Araris either way, the possibility of bussing was all too visible, and their sacrifice was offline. I think that’s the kind of situation they’d freeze in. Or maybe just retract and hold their breath like Orlok did. Araris poked Mat, and then moved from him to Striker in a way I clocked as suspicious. So that makes me wonder what was going on there because Striker stayed very stable on Araris. Illwei looks like an opportunistic low info kill. They had two posts, which meant this round was a good time to kill them before they became a threat. Evil reads were: TJ, TUN, Araris, JNV, Bort Good Bucket Stick, Xino, Mat, Thaid Bad Bucket TJ, Bort, Striker?, Orlok?
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I've got a dnd game to play shortly, but I just want to say that bussing is an option, but you give up the villager mix and potentially look real dumb if the village hadn't planned on using the fang Orlok retracting reads as village, Stick being desperate does too. Slight concern about Striker wanting to tie for the lols but I feel bad about their VC. XD.
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Maybe I'm misremembering Araris' village playstyle since I don't see it that often, but is 'I don't want to vote alongside a sus' an argument they use much? All their votes have pinged me this round. I have a sinking feeling that Thaid is a convenient mix and Araris is taking advantage of that by having overly strong opinions about how the fang should be deployed and how people should think about it. I mostly got disconnected vibes from Thaid, not evil. I got village vibes from Stick because in our PM they changed their mind about Mat on their own. So Araris Bort
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I was not, but I was making an argument that you're suspicious for the way you moved from Mat to Striker. Mostly because I was surprised you slid from stab vote you felt good about to person you felt slightly more good about, instead of sticking to the stab. that does seem suspicious Unrelated back reading note, TJ suggested we do a purple/yellow fang vote count. On the one hand, it provides the elims with a better sense of where the thread is at so they can decide how aggressively to distance. So maybe an elim team that's looking at a lot of question marks might promote that. But on the other hand, I feel like as an elim, I'd default to making my own list based on a close reading of what people have said in black text, plus some targeted follow up if I felt bold. Straight up asking for people to make your job easier feels too bold. So light village read for that.
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I still think you're more focused on losing the Fang to an elim exe than to losing our Elders, which implies a hidden agenda. I hadn't clocked that exing an elim means they don't get to stay in the elim doc, whereas fanging one does. Good point. That makes Bort's language look worse to me. Giving you a pass, Araris, on knowing the quirks of the elim rules well because you came up with the mechanic. But I don't like your switch from Mat to Striker here. Striker is has a reputation for being catchable by their reads lists, but it's weird that you talked about Mat and Striker being similarly suspicious while making the move from one to another. I also think the trade off of a guaranteed extra advisor vs extended thread control from having an extra vote/voice isn't all that significant. When evil, I usually dump by best ideas in the doc C1 and then it's mostly a matter of executing them, which doesn't require my continued presence. Having a strong opinion that one approach is better than the other seems odd. Is this what you liked, @Illwei? This implies you didn't read the reads lists, which would be villagey because elims like checking for their own names, or had a shallow comprehension of them, which would be scummy because you might have just checked for your own name. So, misread the rules, should revisit, misread the rules is your village tier, plus Bort. Yeah, that's at the back of my mind too, but I'm trying to commit more to reads this game. I'll repeat my stance on Xino publicly: having a complete pass for any reason makes the game unfun, even if it means you survive longer. But Xino usually plays pinch hitter and I can't remember the last time they joined at the beginning of a game, so I'm giving them a lot of leeway today. Based on their prior playstyle, I wouldn't put too much stock into Thaid's quick self pres. I'm sensing a lot of unresolved disappointment about the outcome of the QF... I'm banking on elim competence and assuming their designated sacrifice will be playing a low info game that we can't afford to hunt down because CCing often mixes, or they're doing intentionally misleading interactions that the IKYK will make it hard to analyze unless we end up going like a week without fanging. Our early game wagons are usually three or four people, and swayable by one or two key votes. Self pres and your designated sacrifice's vote means you can get away with a lot of vote influence that won't look too suspicious in retrospect.
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Actually I meant you should spectate the MR, which has already begun. @Kasimir Oh so now this is a Bort mission. *cancels game*
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If you ask nicely, sometimes they drop them when they're catching up on the thread to make sure their notes are correct. What's your read of TJ based on? And Bort? and everyone else, but I figure if you were going to do in depth reads, you'd have done them already * Buffy was busy booby trapping their door to stop people from putting fang symbols on it. They hated fangs. They'd interact with other people later.
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In as treaty negotiation General Manager Atashbringer, who will respond to all stylizations, including those which use the @ symbol.
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So if the working assumption is that the fang flip will provide no information, why give them the voting power advantage that comes from delaying? By the way, I see no reason not to advertise our fang votes because the elims can sway it either way outside of serious coordination or village groupthink. I'm voting to fang this round. JNV, you have earned one village point for blatantly soliciting PMs instead of PM spidering like a proper evildoer. Why does doing reads feel like I'm distancing? I'm willing to bank on the GM making the mechanic foolproof with either e!Elder, Veteran!Elder, or multiple Elders. So we probably have some leeway, but not so much that I'd like to push the fang past C2. That's your point, I don't think it was Bort's point.
