Archer

I originally approached my read through in the mindset of uh oh, that C2 vote from Kas is going to cause trouble. So I made an effort to point out the villagey things they'd done before I realized that they weren't as up against the wall as my initial skim had led me to believe. If you look at their Fifth interactions etc they really don't seem e-e, and that makes life so much easier for me. :D. I didn't notice until after posting my last post, but yes, TUN explained they acquired and used their lenses in a way Kas found villagery and Kas woke up late, said that checks out, and moved their vote all in a short timeframe. (I'm still behind on the theorized scummy vs villagey meta about how lens will be used and distributed, so I'm trusting Kas' judgment here.)

This theory presumes a bit about Kas' headspace, but I think it's close to the truth. If you check this post from mid-round, Kas said they suspected WW and TUN fairly evenly. They then chose TUN and had an exchange. My guess is that the conversation either convinced them that TUN was a worse target than WW, or made Kas weary of the confrontation. In the spirit of the latter, they cast a naked vote at the end because they didn't trust themselves to be appropriately emotionally neutral if they offered additional explanation. If he had added reasons, they'd probably have focused on the fact that he was village reading everyone who wasn't about to be filtered killed besides those two.

“Unnecessarily locked doors!” Grandpa Smedry bellowed, bursting into the thread. “I’m practically a washing machine with hiccups, because I almost missed the first cycle! Where’d those dead bodies come from?” * Hi, all. I got a long straw because I don’t have to scratch my head trying to read Kas this game. :D. If you have any questions about their posts, I’ll do my best to provide additional context from PMs and argue theoreticals for why they might have said what they did. Otherwise, I’ll be going off of my own reads. This post was written Tuesday afternoon, before seeing Kas’ PMs. I’ve elected to only look at the first two Cycles, then I’ll examine C3 once it begins. I don’t know the outcome of C3 and I’m too lazy to edit this, so ignore the mentions of dead people. (Future Archer here: yup, still too lazy) TL;DR I strongly suspect Conq. I have reasons to confidently read Joe, Devo, TGK, and Kas as village. Steel is null for inactivity. I don’t think WW or TUN are e-e with Conq, so my suspect pool is JNV and Luckspren off their flip, but Kas’ scan would direct me towards JNV first. Acronyms: e-e means evil teammates, +v means seems villagey, +e means seems evil, C# means cycle #, CW means counter-wagon Cycle One: ---Mid-C1, Fifth said ‘thread’s dead’ and +1ed Kas’ Ash vote. This appears to have been a case on an elim wanting certainty about the exe when timezones meant they wouldn’t be around for rollover - not an attempt to protect a teammate because everyone being voted on at that point was village. Still, the urgency was notable. Nevermind, it was earlier in the round than I thought. ---And possibly justified because Conquestor cast the next vote on Fifth, which made it something like 1:1:1:2 – too tight margins for a distancing gambit. But they then quickly retracted after Fifth responded, so was this a case of them posting before reading the elim doc and having to backtrack? Their retractions felt too easy – like Mat, I don’t buy that there was indicators of a bandwagon. (+v,+e) ---At this point, Joe suggests leaving the all village votes tied, which would be great for the elims. (+e) But it was the opposite approach to Fifth, which is non e-e (+v). ---God King blatantly holding his vote in reserve mid C1 is also scummy under the circumstances, as it avoids the need to backtrack to save a teammate. (+e) (He continues to close out the round, when there probably wasn’t any elims in danger, which looks like an elim not wanting to cast the deciding vote and take the ehat for it.) ---Devo made an interesting point in the back half of C1, saying: “Conquestor for his vote on Fifth when I thought it was clear that there wasn’t real malicious intent on Fifth’s part, and then also for Con’s quick retraction of said vote.” -Mat “Why did you think it was clear there wasn't malicious intent? Putting a second vote on Ash indicates a desire on Fifth's part to kill him, which may or may not be malicious depending on his alignment.” -Devo My instinct is to village read it for raising the specter of e!Fifth unnecessarily, but then I thought, maybe TMI makes it easier to catch the assumption Mat was making. And it’s really an anti-Mat argument, not an anti-Fifth one. ----Kas asking ‘if you had an action scan, who would you scan’ is so blatantly info fishing that it must be village discussion starting. (+v) ---Wizard-Conq not e-e for WW responding to being voted on by backing off their vote. The elims gain nothing from playing out that interaction. (later Archer note: Conq-TUN not e-e for C2 discussion) ---JNV blatantly holding his vote in reserve late C1 is also scummy under the circumstances, as it avoids the need to backtrack to save a teammate. (+e) ---More village points to me for the Fifth-Kas EoD interaction where Kas questions the Ash kill and thinks Fifth is defending Luckspren. High effort e-e discussions in thread are rare. ---Big fan of Devo’s ‘JNV defended Ash so I vote Ash’ argument at EoD. (+v) ---Interesting that Luckspren was on near rollover and made a post saying they won’t vote – elims like to lurk near rollover, so this is past me telling the current thread that I like the Luckspren kill choice. (plus it helps the v!Kas argument. I really hope he isn’t evil, that’ll be awkward.) Cycle Two: ---Kas (Kasimir not Kazan) looks good for the mindset of pushing Fifth after an unsatisfying round ending. Basically calls out the elim strategy, presumably. (+v) I’m confused why they decided to crowd source scan suggestions instead of bringing it up in PMs – maybe future me will find out the answer to that. TUN, did you not see the post where he just… openly asked for scan targets? Seems like a v!slip if the elims stole that lens. (+v) ---Noting the scan Kas got on Luckspren. ---Dislike Joe’s argument for killing Luck because it’s a high value flip because it was a ho-hum round. (+e) ---Devo pointing out the thread state having a lot of people holding votes at EoD aligns with my thinking. (+v) ---I disagree with TGK’s surprisingly frank thought process for abstaining C1. The math I always refer back to is which voting composition has a greater chance of killing an elim – one where half the players voting are elims, or one where only a quarter of the players voting are elims? I prefer the upside of potentially hitting an elim to the essentially zero chance that the elims who take my voteshare will kill one of their teammates. But I’ll chalk this up to playstyle differences. On that note, I usually assume the elims are more likely to park a vote somewhere than villagers are, leading to disproportionate representation in the vote count, but the amount of new to me playstyles involved is messing with that guess. ---I’ll confirm that TUN is playing to their usual playstyle, but I haven’t opposed them as an elim recently so I couldn’t tell you how it differs across alignments. WW is also playing as usual, and I don’t know what e!they look like. ---Clocking that JNV was reading Drought as village, which might explain the NK. By the way JNV, Dinogate is the conspiracy to kill dinosaurs (who can talk and are very much not extinct), enlarge their bones, and bury them to confuse the Hushlanders. ---Kas’ reads post puts Fifth as the top sus, and Fifth replies by counter-sussing Kas (+v). With ten hours to go before rollover, that’s where I’d start to feel uncomfortable as an elim. ---Fifth defends Conq (+e) and suggest Devo is a better pick (+v). ---Conq Lens claiming is a scummy move. (+e) As is the light info fishing followup. ---TGK is village for that impressive Fifth vote. Joe and Devo also get lock village reads for their contributions. There’s no reason for team evil to be in on that sudden train. I think it’s notable that there was no activity for the last hour besides those three votes. The TGK CW was right there – why didn’t they tie it? Conq Hello! Which round are you referring to? Edit: should have read C3, let me see if there's something in the PMs and I'll get back to you

I will pinch hit as Grandpa Smedry, who would have started the game as a full player but. You know. :D.

Yeah I'm pretty sure Clanky is a lone serial killer Cultist and he's been adding extra kills. (Luckyspren)

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and assume the elims didn't shoot there own man. So the Hoid death was the the NK. Then I don't know what mechanic led to an additional death. Are we sure there's another elim in play? Also I'm down to kill anyone not on my team, so Luckspren seems good. I am not, as people keep assuming, an elim.

Is Sart's death a case of a Lifeless using Revenge? I'm confused how they died. Luckspren

Surely if I keep blatantly breath farming I'll get rewarded for it eventually Young Bard

It has come to my attention that Striker signed up with an RP character, so here’s some continuation of that: A middle-aged woman sauntered up to the Breath Market posting board and pinned up a notice: “Lonely widower looking for ambitious and wealthy companion. Low educational attainment acceptable. Must be good with two Breath-holding kids who may run their mouths too much, tee-he! Ideal father figure is one who takes their breath away LOL. No drinkers allowed – healthy kidneys are essential. - Yeyemi Nosef of 44 Cadaver Row (ignore the name, tee he!)”

*smacks the closest big red button* TUN woopsie! (I'm not declaring war on the elims, I just want your breath)

I get the sense that you’re taking out your frustrations about the game structure on players who are trying to be successful by working towards their win conditions. In the midst of that, you’re glossing over how important identifying and killing/protecting Royals is. They’re likely concentrated among the neutral factions who have little incentive to make themselves vulnerable by revealing their Royal teammates. Ta da, intrigue. By introducing personal goals, you’re changing the nature of the game. Choosing not to use the Cowardly Elite option is a good example of that. Wasn’t it Steeldancer who expected players to change alignment as part of their Singer game? Maybe he expected you to take the out that was offered when faced with these apparently insurmountable odds. You won’t know unless you give the game a chance to run as the GM intended. Maybe it is broken, but we’ll have more fun trying to find out than we would giving up on it mid-game. You could have just said hey, a Hawk-Dove alliance makes sense, lets join forces. Making people feel guilty for playing the hand they've been dealt kills the mood real fast. At the very least, kindly direct your frustrations towards the GM and not the other players. It's unreasonable to ask others to intentionally play sub-optimally to 'salvage' a game while this degree of uncertainty remains in play.

Okay other important question, how's your leg. Did the cat gnaw through it or did you survive

Clarification question, are all five Scholars in this game? Feel free to PAFO, @Steeldancer Royalist Royal is the best role. XD. This cycle is probably going to result in a hammer that isn't explained well in thread, so in the meantime, would anyone like to burn some bridges to make the targeting process easier? How about those stinky secret factions, huh :3

Hey Araris, does your wincon have to do with your voting? You seemed weirdly committed to voting Mat yesterday. I should be able to figure out factions/alliances based on JNV's list, but that might be a task for later. I'm not entirely sure what analysis I'm supposed to be doing right now, so PM me if you want to talk shop

Today has been a day. I'll be around more next round, I apologize. Looks like the elims were okay with Sart dying because they allowed them to be in the lead at the old rollover time without much pushback. So, Elan

I can think of two other options, which are you want to know who the real Edgelords are, based on any counterclaims. Or you want to catch evil Involved Traitors being eager to cooperate. But Oxford's Lazer says it's probably the simplest solution because why would an elim have to claim like that if they had the support of two docs keeping them alive. I think Matress Dice should live. Sart

Weird take because I also imply I didn't consult my doc about who to kill or have a strong understanding of the faction system in general, which suggests I didn't read the brief in my doc at all, not I ignored them in favor of evil directions. The GM added me to the GM PM but I missed it and at the time of posting was unaware of my assignment and more interested in sparking conversation while I killed time before the killing time. The way I see it, my behaviour differed between having no doc and having a doc, but I don't see why having one doc would be distinguishable from having two. I'd talk in both, AND the thread, wouldn't I? Thanks! I'm trying to decide if this is borne out of 'it's D1, kill anyone not on my team' logic, or 'it's D1, those fools will kill anyone not on their team' logic.

Roger that, your situation rings a bell, tell us if things improve. (I'm in the same boat.) I'm not entirely sure how anything works, and have no suspicions yet, so if you'd like to persuade me go vote for someone, I'm open to suggestions. What actions do I need to submit right now?

I'll be a pinch hitter

Not to worry, people really have it out for the Loudest Voice winner. :P. Good game, I enjoyed working with you! And good game to everyone else as well. I'm a little sad it was so short, but I really didn't want to test our luck in a 3v:2e scenario. Xino, I really appreciated the effort you put into this game, from the rules streamlining to the website coding. It really enhanced the quality of the game.

Not true, some of us thought this was a Brandon Mull forum and only stuck around because we're too cowardly to admit our mistake. Welcome, Lilien! How'd you feel about that book where the sword guy did the thing with his sword? He's my favorite character for sure

changed my mind because bodyguards vote=Stick (Mat)

Our amazing GM put a countdown clock on the bot page. Scroll to the bottom if you're on mobile. Didn't you just vote for him. Like two hours ago. You barely gave people time to consider it, which makes me think you are feeling the pressure more acutely than expected. This seems suspicious, worthy of suspicion, not how a villager would act, uncharacteristic for a townie, and generally not the vibe. Hmmm. why you say this why

Well now I feel icky about voting for Mat. I'm on a short break right now so I'll make a longer response in a few hours where I hopefully figure out who is actually evil. To clarify this statement, I'm not setting aside Luckspren as a suspect, but I do think there's another elim within the group of Mat/Stick. The JNV kill had to be a change of plan made after they posted, during which time Luckspren was away otherwise they'd have been encouraged by their teammate to better dodge the blackmail filter. Even if they were lurking, I don't see rookie!them making that executive decision to presumably override the previous kill choice without consulting the other elim. So I'd prefer to kill the other elim in play (the more catchable person). I'm not convinced they're evil though. Clanky's TUN vote has me suspicious. Potential them and Mat are teamed. I don't see an elim taking unnecessary risks, and think the elim team would be scared enough of Devo and the power they would have to kill TUN on their own if they wanted to to take adequate precautions. And then Devo not vote manipping still seems strongly village. So I'm sticking to those reads. But then I'm struggling with Mat's comment being too obviously evil to be evil. Stick is about to ninja me but I don't have time to read it so see ya in a bit Edit: quick response to Stick, I'm also using POE, but if your POE is all new or inactive players, it's usually wrong

The elims get a kill and our voting prompts an investigation....which kills its victim. It's a flavor thing. If there'd been an assassination, the GM probably would have called that a kill as well. What usually happens is the GM uses their discretion to decide what items are added to the stockpile each round. An item continuing to appear is likely something going unbought, or it was bought but a new one took its place. Meta precedent suggests there will likely not be a pattern to how the resupply goes. I ended up with 8, because I paid 3 to the blackmail filter. I got confirmation that I can spend money I earn this round on things, which would allow me to buy an Assassin, but I ran the numbers and we actually lose if we have three village deaths this cycle. If an elim dies to the assassin, we get to 3v:1e instead of 3v:2e from passive play, but both scenarios still leave us at exlo. So I'm most definitely going to buy the Bodyguard instead. For sure. 100%. Guaranteed. :). Ex-lo is kill an elim with the public vote or lose the game, by the way. Exe or lose. Also called lylo.