Archer

Illwei

I exist. I won't be voting this cycle because I want to escape the memes I want to demonstrate by my willingness to die that I am not an elim We're probably looking at two to three elims, depending on the item distribution. @Matrim's Dice may we create one on one PMs that don't include ourselves?

Yeah I apologize for saying that. I couldn't have protected Cin anyway in retrospect. With no Coinshot, we have a predictable kill rate. Let's say we mix TUN, elims kill me. Mix Whysper, elims kill Illwei. That leaves Shining and Silvereye. That could be a loss or a 50% of success. Given their votes on Wiz, I'm cool with them being the final two. So the pressure is off to really delve into this. TUN @Araris Valerian what's the elim wincon? Also, shorter Days are fine by me.

right but you made me waste my protection on you and you were wrong about Danex being a thug so. Anyway. That flip felt good nonetheless. Thanks for your service, Cin. I'm gonna reevaluate again just so I can make sure we're getting this right. We should talk through our options, at least.

Silvereye's claim made me realize I've been balancing this game the way I would a role madness. But I think about half the players are vanillas, so I guess I can see it? They're clearing two people, which the elims can't afford to do right now. I guess Mat's just good at distancing! TUN Mat * Ora the miner sat solemnly at a bar, thinking about all the death they'd seen in recent days. "Hey, big guy! You haven't served me yet." The burly bartender scoffed. "Get lost. We can't serve miners here."

Do I want a Danexe, a TUNnel, or a red forMATed vote. Whis person should I choose... Dannex TUN

During D1, Mat had some interactions that don't look e-e. He votes Wiz and gets this reaponse: I see you haven't changed yet Mat, maybe this game will finally convince you to stop going after me D1. Danex votes him and he makes this response. Oh come on, this is page four. I’m sure you can come up with something beyond a lazy continuation vote These don't read e-e to me, so I'm hesitant to vote for Mat.

I actually made a similar mistake. I was thinking of Bookwyrm as the NK, but it was really the Coinshot attack. So ignore my thoughts about the Danex implications. Just to recap then: -Illwei shot an elim, and voted one off -Silvereye voted off an elim -Shining voted off an elim -I protected Cin from this NK -Cin was attacked by the elims (we're either e-e or v-v because I didn't give them a heads up) From my perspective, we're looking for three elims from a pool of Whysper, TUN, Mat, and Dannex. Anyone got some compelling not e-e arguments to make about those four? A dichotomy should give us an elim flip today or tomorrow.

How are you interpreting the NK being on Cin with regards to their alignment?

Correct. Makes sense if you think I was laying the groundwork for a WGG. My counter argument would be that the elim team having two kills a night is pretty powerful, and e!Cin still never had any reason to claim their role. The village would have at least one Lurcher against two evil kills, and no one has claimed that role besides me. 20 minus three a round is 17, 14, 11, 8 - which is the loss point. Assuming you can hammer the last round and get great thread control from the kills, the village only gets three chances to catch the evil team. Speaking of elim trickery, I'll note Danex was pushing Bookwyrm last night so this kill doesn't make them look good at all. Possibly intentionally! I can answer the question of who I've been protecting now, but it's only relevant if someone has a way to verify any of them. PM me if you do and we'll rope a third party in and work that out. Nice

I am a Lurcher. Is anyone else?

Counterpoint: it was 8v:4e. Getting a mix and NK leads to 6v:4e. With a bad Coinshot attack it's 5:4, which is winnable with a hammer. Additionally, Mat thought it was tied, which would have reduced his odds of getting there to 50% from 100% if he added his vote against me. Given my recent souring on him, he had an easy route to justify his vote, so I don't see why e!he wouldn't. To respond to the e-e theory, I simply wouldn't bring an elim teammate into exe contention in that situation. I'd bus if the odds of them dying were zero, but not if I blew it and their cover was intact. Bold is mine. Y'all still sure dannex is village? I put it to you that I was the preferred mix and Danex was protective of Archivist. Same arguments apply from earlier about them easily clearing them - a null is a functional clear in their PoE.

:'( When I started the round, under no pressure, I was fully prepared to murder Dannex and held that approach until it was clear it wasn't going to happen. I'll admit I didn't expect Archivist to flip evil at all, or for Silvereye to be village. But I'll lean into the suspicious vibes and think through whether skipping a Coinshot kill tonight would be beneficial. We have 10 players, 3 lock village, 4 questionable villagers, and 3 elims. An NK takes us to 2/4:3. Coinshot goes to 2/3:3. Mix goes to 2/3:3 or 2/2:3. Then it goes to 1/3:3 or 1/2:3. I can't find the elim wincon but let's call 1/2:3 a functional loss. Whereas only making one Coinshot kill gives us 4:3. The argument wouldn't be for skipping a kill the Night before exlo, but for doing it this Night so we have the results of the exe to work from. But the risk is the Coinshot being NKed so they should probably take the shot. To Cin, the suspect pool is me, Mat, Whysper, TUN, Danex, Bookwyrm. Mat didn't help Archivist survive when they thought it was tied, which is a point in their favor. I still think TUN is village. With Mar out of the picture, v!Books looks pretty likely. I'm friendly. Soooo Whysper or Danex are looking pretty shootable :3

I've decided to sheep the girl who killed an elim earlier Dannex Archivist

Cin: u up? 4:43AM EST Me: don't be stupid 9:17AM Cin: k 4:04PM (an hour before rollover) It was pre-Mistborn reveal, remember, so I had some doubts, so I wasn't committed to outright defending you.

-If I'd wanted to protect Archivist or Silvereye I wouldn't have called out how Danex's POE skipped over them. I suspect Danex is protecting one of them (likely Silvereye), but those two aren't high probability exe candidates. Taking shots in the dark isn't the way to win at exlo. The way this always goes is the village says it's between these two question marks and split their votes accordingly, and the elims add their votes strategically to make it blow up in our faces. We need a conspiracy of four people, and generally speaking, slotting in rookies to fill in an e-e pair theory turns out to be wrong. -To summarize the Cin PM: Cin PMed me, said they trusted me and asked whether shooting Illwei was a good idea. My answer was Illwei was either a helpful villager or a catchable elim, so I'd rather they shoot JNV. It wasn't a very long conversation (3 messages total, I think), but it didn't strike me as Cin trying to pawn off responsibility for their pick. That's been supported by their slowness to implicate me in the choice and the fact that they admitted to being a coinshot when there was no elim incentive to. -My team guess in order of confidence is Danex/Silvereye/Whysper/Mat. Yes I'm agreeing Silvereye is suspicious but they're a mirror image of JNV and Shadow. I'm done with that type of kill.

My impression of your thinking about voting was based on your previous statements: These are not the words of a man who commonly withholds his vote during crunch time. Regarding this, emphasis on the bold: That's one point of contention. I think the experienced pool is mostly elims while the rookie pool has at best, a minority of elims. And then Danex used flawed logic to PoE a Bookwyrm vote because their justifications for eliminating candidates were unreasonable.

It's pretty out of character for Mat to go this long into the round without voting. It's also convenient because by not committing, they don't tip their hand about who their potential teammates are during this critical period. They're not pressing like I'd expect a player of their calibre to. My preference is Danex because I think they're using bad logic to lead us to the statistically less likely options. But my backup vote is now Mat. Consolidation is important. Don't rely on the Coinshot as a backup because they can be blocked - remember that game when Stick tricked us and the attempted coinshotting of the elim was blocked. :(. I'll be on after class ends, which is pretty near rollover, so good luck y'all. Also, Shining, I like your pfp!

This reads like a reflection of recent developments in attitudes, which makes it hard to tell when you developed these opinions. 2. So you selected a group based on rookie status, which generally correlates with lower activity levels, then gave clears due activity levels, except in the case of the outlier, who you voted for. I changed my mind about the composition when I realized Alv was probably killed as insurance against them being a game breaking Coinshot again. And the Xino kill indicated no interest in obtaining thread control or dealing with the village power roles, which means the elims were confident we were all headed in the wrong direction yesterday. Technically the argument that there's at least one elim in the rookie pile doesn't work if you're clearing someone arbitrarily. If you're taking Whysper out of the pile you have to reduce your expected elim count by one in case they're evil. That means three elims remaining (5 minus Wiz minus Whysper) and the experienced pool you list has enough players to support that on its own. But I understand the allure of the argument when from your perspective, it's a coinflip if you go that route. Who else would you guess is also on a Mat-Book team? Against a village coinshot and two mistborn we're probably looking at two other people. Why?

Why does Silver get credit for being active while Books doesn't? Is the basis of your nulls activity levels? What's the difference between Silver and Books' votes? I'm entertaining a Mat-Book team right now, but I do recall mentioning that Wiz hung Books out to dry at one point. (Silvereye-Danex-Shining-Whysper is something along the lines of my larger team guess right now.) With a five person team, your 1-2 rookie guess means 3-4 experienced players. Taking out the experienced Wiz, you're looking at 1-2 elims in the pool of four rookies, and 2-3 elims in the pool of 4 experienced players. The odds favor selections from the latter pool. What do you think the logic behind the kills has been?

My undiluted pool of Mat, Whysper, TUN, Shining, and Dannex is the same size as yours if you remove yourself. If you agree that it's more likely the majority of the elims are in the experienced pool, your odds are better searching there because both pools have four people, from your perspective. I also think it's easier to narrow down because the members have bigger paper trails.

I suspect Danex chose to look at the remaining rookies because doing the inverse analysis implicates them. No GM tries to stack their team with fresh faces; they prefer to play a disproportionate amount of experienced players. I’m a consensus clear. Illwei is cleared for killing Wiz. Cin is cleared for admitting to being a power role in a situation where the elims had no incentive to reveal the information. No one has volunteered any role-acquired information, so while we can guess the elims have a Mistborn and maybe a Lurcher? (and possibly a Seeker for the lols), it doesn’t do us much good. So for the sake of argument, let’s guess one elim among the rookies: Silver, Archivist, Bookwyrm, but ignore them for now. That leaves a pool of Mat, Whysper, TUN, Shining, and Dannex with about two elims in it. I’m also more inclined to go this route because Illwei and I have been clearing most of those players, and we’re still alive. Killing Xino over say me was a good indication that we’re on the wrong track. I’m going to stick with my village TUN read out of begrudging respect for their approach – and the hope that an elim wouldn’t stonewall us like that. I can’t read Whysper off of a pre-write, but let’s chalk them in as a placeholder elim. This leaves a pool of Shining, Mat, and Dannex with at least one elim in it. Two of them have opted to vote for peripheral candidates today, which I expect is the elim gameplan. Here's a look at the vote tallies, with bold being my strong village reads, and purple being unknowns: D1 Ashbringer (4): Shining Silhouette, Cinnamon, xinoehp512, The Bookwyrm xinoehp512 (3): Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer, Conquestor The Unknown Novel (1): The Unknown Novel Matrim's Dice (1): Dannnnnnex Just a Silvereye (1): _Stick_ D2 Turtle (5): Mat, Shadow, Archivist, Xino, Stick Stick (4): Wizard, Illwei, Silver, Dannex Book (2): Shining, Devotary Mat (1): JNV Cinnamon (1): Book Devotary (1): Alvron D3 shadow1 (4): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette, Archer, The Bookwyrm The Bookwyrm (2): Just a Silvereye, xinoehp512 Matrim's Dice (2): Illwei, shadow1 JNV (1): Dannnnnnex Mat's voted on a main mix every time. Shining has a similar record. Danex has sought out side wagons, which I find damming (not trying too hard to meaningfully pressure anyone). I'll give shout out side notes to Silvereye and Books for being fairly active. Mat has been around to shield Books if needed, which might explain the lack of a coordinated effort to save them. Dannex has also been around at EOD a lot - yet had little impact. Whereas Shining arrives at EoD and makes it known they intend to vote, which would also be a good elim strategy. I'd need to re-read to put any distance between my reads on any of these guys, but Danex's recent post pinged my elimdar pretty hard.

Hi. Sorry, I'm having trouble hearing you, would you mind speaking louder? Can't decide if this is the funniest part of the post or if you outing yourself as the lowest poster is. :P. Can someone remind me if Illwei having rolled Tineye once affects the odds of them being a Tineye again in the near future? The obvious question is why'd you kill Wiz? Then the obvious conclusion is, you killed an elim! Thanks! Not sure why you aren't revelling in that more. Anyone want to counterclaim? E!Mat kinda makes sense if you postulate e!Books. With v!JNV, I'm getting to the point where I'm struggling to come up with a plausible conspiracy. Team Silvereye-Archivist-Conq wouldn't be fielded by the GM. Also, with two village mistborns and a village coinshot, the elims would have to be packing some good roles.

Would you be more willing to name your village reads? I don't need an explanation for them, just knowing who is off your radar would be interesting. To parrot a Kas talking point, there's a chance the filter will kill them rather than replace. Pinch hitters are hard to find, especially given the large starting roster for this game. Araris said replace, but we might as well wait to see if that actually happens.

That's what I said ;D. I accidentally directed it at both of you. The latter part was about you, the first was about Cin. I'm not inclined to explain my vote to someone who didn't vote at all. I too forgot that Conq was in this game. Are you proposing the Coinshot takes one of them out? Be careful when quoting players. If Araris merges the D3 thread when you're midway through your post, your links will probably break and show up with no attribution.