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Archer

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Everything posted by Archer

  1. Archer
    Is there anything stopping this from being e!Insanity and e!Elk? That's my immediate thought about why they voted Aman. I don't know why e!Aman takes the time to criticise me, an e!Insanity voter, if they're trying to help e!Elk. At this point I don't think I'm gonna come up with any brilliant deduction that warrants really pushing one of these two over the other so here's some vote padding: insanity Elk. Random side note, why wasn't Araris roleblocked by the elims? Was it a waste of resources or maybe Silh and Turtle were both going to be mixes...
  2. Archer
    Sorry for the confusion. In questioning whether it's exculpatory, I realized Tani doesn't Shard at all on Sundays anyway, so it's highly unlikely they submitted the kill. So our list of untrusted people who could have killed is down to Insanity, Elk, and Xino/Aman. I don't really have a good reason to vote Aman, so I'm down to weighing v!Elk because Stick pushed them as a suspect against e!Elk because at EoD D3 they did a vanity vote. Due to the weirdness of this game, I don't agree with this read, but I think I'll be joining you on Insanity Elk
  3. Archer
    I know that. And you know that. And the elims who agonized over the kill decision know that. I was trying to see how far Tani would go before acknowledging it, to follow up on them calling JNV a living player yesterday:
  4. Archer
    Are you willing to vote JNV today if I switch to them too? I'm exploring options here
  5. Archer
    How do you feel about some people having JNV in the null range? Personally I've been hard clearing them and I guess you are too. Would you agree that having them in the null midrange is weird. *eyes Aman* This question is just for @Ookla the Implosion because they're the only active one I don't have a full reads list from yet.
  6. Archer
    I started trying to work out the roleblocking and unroleblocking that would have to go into making that work before I realized e!Turtle would just submit the kill. Insanity should do it anyway though. Oh bother
  7. Archer
    I'm not that confident yet, but I'll say e!Turtle still works. Before we lock in on 15:5 starting distro, I'm gonna run the 16:4 distro simulation. Mix, NK, Coinshot missing drops us from 6:2 to 3:2. Ok yeah we're fine. Carry on assuming three elims are left because we can afford to. Also, you only voted off elims who were dead men walking. Well if you'd wanted that, you should have asked for it! Kidding. Kind of. As the parasocial relationship I've had with the GM this game can attest to, you don't get any Stormlight on multiple of 3 Nights if you're baldeless. :(. I can't say for sure how it works if you acquire one, but my memory of the rules was that you don't and have to use your starting stockpile. I think that's a logical conclusion. But you have to consider the player profile. I can see v!Insanity not prioritizing farming Stormlight for other people because they want to keep the manip option open or they haven't thought it through that much. I'd be really careful about condemning players for sub optimal play.
  8. Archer
    Here's the cherrypicked, unsympathetic Elk case: -D1 Elk voted Wiz for the tie but then framed it as not trusting Wiz in another post. At EoD they said they don't trust Wiz and they don't trust Bookwyrm and used that to justify some vote dancing around. I think Thrill seeking Tie Guys usually just want the tie. How often is it that your two suspects actually are both in contention? My theory would be they're just saying they suspect them as an excuse. -Page 4 of D2, the votes are v1:v2:v2:v2:Elk2. Mat and I switch to Stick, and, potentially making it v1:v2:v2:e2:e2 and immediately Turtle breaks the tie. Possibly because the odds of an elim dying doubled. -Their D3 vote comes after Chan bussed. It was a vanity vote on Xino but they took the time to say they suspected Stick a bit. Does a Tie Guy looking at a 3:4 EoD VC decide the best thing to do is make it 3:4:1? No. -They've gone vote on main wagon, no vote, main wagon, no vote, main wagon Chan and Insanity voted together on Mat D1, which I find unlikely to be e-e.
  9. Archer
    Yeah this is more about just gathering any information people are sitting on (or claims that contradict other claims because they're lies). Keep your operational security. Paliah has only been in new hands for one round, so they should as well. Hows a roleblocker blocking a roleblocker get announced? Failure, probably. This is fine. Now I only have four suspects! Xino, Elk, Tani, and Insanity. JNV was hard cleared, and had a decent blade, but if it hadn't been discussed, our low activity elim team might have made a more predictable kill if they weren't doing heavy analysis themselves. Unfortunately, I think e!Silh could have figured it out, so I can't clear Insanity for the choice. @InfiniteInsanity how did you win a spoon? Turtle Elk :P.
  10. Archer
    Aman. Wanna explain why it was so important to tell the elims exactly who was popularly cleared outside of the obvious two? Couldn't we have done that during the Day? Araris, can you clear Silh of having submitted the NK? Also, you should probably kill next Night, depending how the exe goes. Now that everyone's blade is public knowledge, please action claim. The fact that bladeless Turtle picked up Stick's item means nothing because it was off the exe. But I do like using a shortlist of people who started without a blade since the elims have a good route to acquiring them. I stayed up because I can't handle suspense. Elk lurked for the Araris info dump too, FYI. My behavior is totally normal while theirs is clearly evil :P. 8 players remain, making it 5:3 or 2:6. Pessimistically it goes 5:3, mix to 4:3, NK to 3:3. Or, factoring in Araris, two villagers and an elim dying makes it 3:2. But we think they can roleblock him? Turtle Edit: I guess Tani gets some credit for not leaving Araris out to dry. If the elims have all the protection, they could have made a play for Chan
  11. Archer
    Well I know at least Silh is probably asleep by now, so I'll do a mini update. As a general rule, I'm not a fan of info sharing at Night, but Aman has me worried I might die and be in a weak position to say I told you so from the dead doc. :P. I'm worried that Ash split the protection blades to avoid the problem of them protecting each other indefinitely. But the storm light mechanic gives me pause. My Xino read has changed because I feel Aman would bus in the situation he was put in, so I'm still just working with Stick voting Xino looks good for them. Same read with Elk, but moreso. Araris and JNV are lock village. Insanity is a question mark by necessity because if I don't keep sus them I'm committed to e!Tani. Turtle should die for being bladeless. Silh should die for well they can't all be inactive D3.
  12. Archer
    As Tani's legal counsel, I'm sorry to tell you that my client won't be answering that until tomorrow because they can't protect the same target twice in a row. I'm hesitant to post a reads list right now. It hasn't changed much though. It'd have to be JNV who tattled. But you also need to consider the death of Stick, who may have been dictating their kill strategy. You could guess Araris wasn't the Shaman though because they didn't claim it when under pressure early in the game. D2 maybe? And I was a suspect so I'm out. Alv isn't too off the beaten path now that I think about it.
  13. Archer
    You're lucky it was an elim flip. You've heavily committed to a game that could have just been lost. :P. Good job, Araris. Paliah, protect that man. I imagine I'll be the kill instead, but I'm worth less mechanically, so don't worry about me. Under no circumstances protect me over Araris. It'd be an absolutely bonkers move. I completely forbid it.
  14. Archer
    Aman could fake this, I'd focus on reading Xino. Although I do think pinch hitters are statisticly more likely to be evil I cover Silh in the middle of this post. E!Chan leading to v!JNV is actually super helpful for making e!Silh work. I was confused why JNV didn't bus. Silh gets credit for I think being the third vote on Stick, but Kas was heading there anyway so the CW might have been doomed of they couldn't count on a hammer and lacked thread control
  15. Archer
    I couldn't make 5 work with my clears so I've been rolling with a guess of 4. Is assuming the elims have a protection blade an educated guess? It looks like you received an info dump from Kas you could have sat on/pretended you didn't have a PM to receive it through, so I'll ignore the Coinshot theory and trust you for that to make my life easier. Let me know if I'm following this correctly. Chantara acquired Illwei's blade. A prudent elim team would pass on a few but take the ones with utility, like this one. Chantara then used it to block themselves and another person from being scanned. This would prevent the elim kill from being visible. @Chantara who did you think was worth protecting from scans (but not from kills)? JNV volunteered that their scan action was, after some clarification, blocked by Chantara's. E!JNV doesn't scan e!Chantara or put them in the position of having to discuss this. v!JNV looks more likely because they volunteered this first with little reason to think it'd help them, while Chantara has had very analytical responses. I thought I had a not e-e interaction between Stick and Chantara to share, but if you look at the end of D3 where Stick says (paraphrased) 'what if we instead vote Chantara' then Chantara says 'yada yada oh Stick's voting me? Forget this, Stick'. I remembered the vote having been edited in, but it wasn't. Making that interaction look more like a planned conversation to give Chantara a reason to vote Stick. If we flip e!Chantara, that means v!JNV. Which means Stick got no help D3. I dispute Silh's suggestion that they'd fight to the end because Stick was in a rut and their vote came with only 4 hours to go. Functional EoD, at least for them, so that's when you bus. (I'm open to thinking about them not being evil, but then who are the other elims?? Tani/Turtle?) v!JNV negates my best reason for voting Turtle: they shifted attention to Cash D4 away from JNV. But there's other stuff there we can litigate tomorrow. I still trust Elk for being a well researched Stick target I don't like voting people out of the blue, but now that more information has been shared, I'm willing to get behind JNV Chantara. I just ask that next time you work on your case presentation next time, Araris. :P. Edit: if you pick up Chantara's blade after this, stay quiet about it and protect Araris. Either an elim will get it and we'll know an elim got it because Araris died, or a villager will get it and protect our repository of information
  16. Archer
    Can someone please claim this. Confirmed village isn't confirmed right, so it's an interesting approach. Silh and JNV's confused me how about we not leave it until 2am my time to decide :D. Well it wasn't aggressive was it. It was with four hours to go, which could be the point where the elims had given up and started bussing (remember, timezones mean the functional EoD is sooner than real EoD). It's a question of does Shining's progression make sense? Do we trust that elims fought longer - as hopefully evidenced by JNV's vote? Put another way, gone to sleep because the bus had begun? Or because you aren't e-e with Stick? I'm 100% sure there's one elim in Shining and JNV and I can't tell which it is. If it's as simple as they're both evil I will scream. Is this because I haven't called you scary recently >.> Unless the 4th is Xino. I'm not a fan of digging deep into the pile when there's theoretically more catchable elims left JNV, Turtle, Chantara. That's Team Too Little Too Late, so your D3 elims did nothing useful. Which is believable. Welcome! No village cred for doing it before you got an alignment :P. At this point any competent elim team has caught on that you're the Coinshot/PMer guy and I'd really like confirmation of that so I can vote Turtle without thinking it's e!Araris e!Shining and v!JNV, v!Chantara. If you tell us and we get this flip right, you have a good shot with the Coinshot to bring it down to one elim who can only either NK or Coinshot anyway if they steal your blade. Also, vanilla!Araris was probably going to be the kill target anyway If Araris dispels my paranoia I can chalk the rest of the Turtle votes up to bussing and vote there. If someone villagey says they blocked JNV, I can vote there. I don't think I can be happy with myself if I end up on Shining while holding JNV suspicions. I refuse to look at Chantara for what looks like PoE reasons. JNV probably
  17. Archer
    Claim could be legit, but there's a good chance a villager decided to try and block the NK. Unless you're pondering the value of whoever did that claiming? Unfortunately, all JNV has offered in their own defence is that they have a shiny blade. We've in a bad place position to meta the distro so it's NAI. Elk, who Stick made a strong push to exe? At least say Xino. I feel like Silh bussed and these recent Turtle votes are confusing me. Maybe that was the goal. But I might as well use the time we have left to mix things up. Silh JNV
  18. Archer
    I have a mental block when it comes to voting Turtle because I don't want to not hit the final CW from D3 after 2/3 already died. But knowing that the elims have to have bussed D3 makes me okay with exploring Silh (potential busser) and Turtle (non voter). I'm genuinely torn between the three. What's your elim team theory right now? I want to see them! Yes, I meant Stick. Turtle's D1 vote isn't conclusive on it's own, I'll give you that. E!me would do the same, especially if my flip was likely. My counter argument would be that it's a restating of their previously made reads, so perhaps they wanted to be consistent. My bad, you're right that your vote was on Xino. If you, not our Coinshot, made the PMs, I want to clear you for that. If you know someone didn't submit the NK, that's somewhat useful, but we don't have a cohesive enough picture of action submissions to make a conclusion about it. My hesitation with Shining is that TUN and Kas both entertained e!Xino and e!Elk theories. So it's not necessarily elim indicative. I also can't wrap my head around them voting for Stick (bussing), then e!JNV not bussing.
  19. Archer
    JNV, but I'm not certain about that vote in light of the e!Silh possibility and the allure of a Turtle exe. I'll start with colored vote counts. Day One We now know that none of the wagons that stuck were elims, so I consider final positioning fairly NAI. I'll note though that the first three votes were Stick by Kas, Mat by Silh, Mat by Turtle. It soon became a 1:1:1:2, at which point Turtle backed off of what could be viewed as an early defense of Stick. (Turtle never bothered to revote, which fits our inactive elims narrative. Note that Tani specifically wanted to look at non-voters recently, which puts is a weird approach that implicates Turtle, so I'm thinking not e-e there.) Day Two Stick starts with a detailed argument just against Elk, which implies e-v to me. Moving to Szeth mid round could be a defense of Xino, who had one vote at the time in a near tie with four other people, but I think it'd make more sense to have stuck to the strong Elk read there instead of switching to Szeth, who had two votes: TUN's and Szeth's. It looks more to me like they didn't feel much pressure. The Bookwyrm took off and it was a done deal. Day Three Kas votes Xino, Szeth naked votes the same, then replies to Kas' challenge with: "Wdym Like I said I found their inconsistent stance on Bookwyrm odd. I’m also willing to go Elk or Araris." This looks like they got caught out sheeping, not that they were distancing/trying to scare Kas off by +1ing him suspiciously. Araris and I lay down the hammer and who crawls out of the woodwork: "smh i just realized i’m not following this, so here i am" -Turtle! Silh then drops a reads list with Turtle and Stick as villagers and JNV as null, with what I think are the favored elim wagons, Elk and Xino, as the most scummy reads. They also say "As for voting, I think I'll vote tomorrow. Let my thoughts settle and whatnot," which I can interpret as a desire not to commit to any wagon until they know if Stick is in serious danger or not/where Kas will land. Silh also says "I will not vote Kas, Turtle, or Archer. Everyone else but Stick I don't really care. As for Stick is there a tactical reason for E!Stick to constantly defend Bookwyrm D1 and N1? It's a strong enough move it would have to be intentional." This is a hard defense of them that's really a hard defense. This is weird! Because Silh then votes Stick, and as Kas noted, exits the thread. That's villagery. Kas drops this response "I am actually considering if I want to go off Stick and onto the Xino or Archer trains so I would advise not sheeping me." E!Silh probably would have clocked that. JNV definitely did and adds to TUN's vote on me. TUN was a villager who was fairly committed to voting me, so with Stick's self pres, this makes a tie at the cost of only one suspicious vote (JNV's). Araris, to answer your question, one of JNV or TUN had to be the supporting elim vote unless they decided to bus early. So v!one meant e!the other, but it could have been e-v, not e-e. Which it was. *In the midst of this, Insanity drops a post with no vote attached, which is bad form when your elim teammate is under pressure, so I'm lightly clearing them for it. Stick names 'Kas Turtle Shining' as their three village reads. Elk makes a tie. Kas says are you sure you want to make a tie? Elk says eh, ok, I'll kill Stick. I was e!reading this this morning but I've since realized an elim would know the optics going in and be committed to the tie or bus Stick from the get go. Stick votes Chantara with zero reasoning, so I think they were probably trolling. Could be distancing though. Chantara was on for the EoD so I wonder if they had given up by then, but did a scripted interaction to make the most of it. TL;DR I'm split between Silh seeing 3:1:1:1 with four hours to go before rollover and deciding to pull the trigger on a bus then making sense, or e!JNV coming into more favorable circumstances and trying to bridge the gap to save Stick. I don't think both are likely, unless e!JNV just wanted to diversify where the elim votes landed. Turtle was absent during crunch time. Day Four We were lurching towards JNV. Turtle seized on my Cash suspicion to start the Cash wagon. Araris lightly rejects it, Tani supports it, Araris switches. Cue avalanche. I liked the apologetic nature of Tani's retrospective vote explanation and the strategic goal. I'm lightly village reading them for that. *Somewhere this cycle I think, Turtle posted a colored VC that greened TUN but kept Stick-killer!Araris in black. That's weird. Day Five To recap e!JNV helps e!Stick tie the D3 VC. E!Turtle helps e!JNV escape pressure the next Day. OR. E!Silh buses Stick. Reevaluation of other reads necessary. Absent from D3 voting!Turtle also fits onto this team. OR. E!all of them, and they were splitting their votes/bets D3. Either way, I'm hard clearing e!Elk. They were Stick's preferred exe. Xino was the subject of Stick's bad vote, so I'm also village reading them. Araris gets a pass for killing Stick. So should I. I'm lightly village reading Tani and Insanity. Leaving Chantara to round out an elim team in place of Silh. Kill Analysis E! me or Araris kill each other this cycle to gain thread control. E!JNV kills me, unless they were afraid of the optics, or knew about Shaman!Alv from their PM/good reading and wanted to kill them before they claimed and got protection. I'd pretty much outed that I wasn't the Shaman, so it makes sense to pass on me if you're gunning for it.
  20. Archer
    dangit I don't like this. Why wasn't Araris the NK target - Alv isn't a control kill? Did they guess his role? Was Stick calling the shots previously? If e!JNV is afraid of being exed, they at least kill me - unless they're afraid of optics? I don't like that JNV is the obvious exe candidate today now. It's exlo if there's 4 elims left. Unfortunately, Alv was a free square we no longer get. But I trust Chan the killer. They're probably also the source of the PM's unfortunately, meaning there's only one clear to be made from those actions. (You can't kill N7 anyway, no harm claiming). Then let's tentatively continue to trust me, Araris, and Silh for boldly going after Stick. Assuming no overlap, that reduces our PoE to 6. So we need non e-e pairs and a likely conspiracy. I just realized this means Stick was bussed. By whom, and when should be looked into. Also should check if Alv had some weird votes/notes that came from meta knowledge we can glean. We know of JNV-Kas and Alv-Kas, who was in the third PM? Did Alv confiscate that blade from someone? Has no one succeeded in catching elims or clearing people of having done the NK with the other blades? Results here aside, I was looking at JNV, Turtle, but I have no clue who the extra elim(s) would be. That's concerning. EDIT: DO NOT CLAIM, CHAN. I forgot NKing you gives the elims an extra kill Also, I'm back to thinking it's JNV. The Day Stick died, he built on a villager vote, which is more plausible than an all elim CW. Bonus elim is Elk. Maybe Chantara but I can't tell if it's distancing or trolling - but it indicates the bus point. I'll walk through this in more detail in the morning. Notable that Turtle is absent, but they'd have been counting on them to close the gap and so CW is reasonable strategy
  21. Archer
    On the off chance I die tonight, I'd like to retract my positive read of Turtle for suggesting that the protection blade protect Kas the Night he was killed. I'd forgotten that with the limited Stormlight mechanic, the odds were good that the protector couldn't use their Blade, making it a good opportunity to kill a likely protection target in other cycles. There's up to two protection blades in circulation, but they'd both have this problem. Also, a v!JNV flip leads to e!TUN and an e!JNV flip leads to e!Turtle
  22. Archer
    I'm getting the sense I've come on too hard here, so I apologize. Cash was a group decision. I'm only complaining in retrospect because I didn't catch the fallacy. And obviously some other villagers didn't either, but I do think we need to pursue the elims who moved us off of e!JNV if that is their alignment. Welcome to the Tie Guys club, which I've been kind of village reading so. Maybe you're not evil? :P. Also, getting some extra reads out of a temporary Cash vote you intended to switch back from is actually good play. And guess what! I misremembered. Tani wasn't the first vote on Cash. It was Turtle. *crowd gasps* I too am not doing heavy rereading, and instead am hyperfocussed on the the D3 VC. Stick probably wasn't left out to dry, so was it TUN or JNV or both who tried to form CWs for them. I'm in a bad position to judge if TUN's suspicions of me are reasonable, so I appreciate comments like Araris'. So. TUN-JNV-Turtle anyone? Noo don't talk like that, you're very scary! <3
  23. Archer
    You're better off going by post count. Our issue hasn't been getting votes, its been getting discussion. Voting is high priority to elims if it's consequential - which when an elim is up for exe D3, it is. I'm not a fan of that arbitrary grouping. (Not just because it excludes TUN.) Also, why did you vote for Wiz that cycle you said *flips coin* Wiz. How exactly did you get to that vote? Last round, what's your response to the accusations that you seized upon my suspicion of Cash to move the thread from voting JNV to voting on Cash? I and others weren't going to vote Cash until you drove us in that direction. Are you worried you helped e!JNV out? Didn't Turtle do some hand wringing last cycle, along with Sil, yet not contest the exe that hard? That kind of behaviour looks like distancing from consequences. I invite the Shaman, PMer and maybe Chantara if you make a reasonable kill to consider claiming tomorrow. Don't do it before the NK, but do consider helping us disrupt the possibility of the team suggestion TUN is making by identifying conf villagers among that group. If it's a question of elim team of Tani, JNV, TUN vs Insanity, Xino, Alv it's clear that one makes sense and the other doesn't. Think it over if it's potential helpful to us.
  24. Archer
    I regret having stayed up for that Speaking of trusting Kas. Insanity, no! Cash wasn't on Kas' radar, why would you frame it like that? How'd you do a reread and miss the part where I led the voting against Stick? Off the top of my head, we're here because of Tani, right. But we can't vote them because that usurps the logical order and it'd be stupid to run that style of vote back again. E!JNV leads to e!Tani unless it's a 4D chess way of wasting an extra exe or can I just vote TUN. Could be fun I am dun Edit: nope, couldn't sleep. TUN, you think the elim strategy was e!Stick contributes to the wagon on e!Xino, then e!I vote e!Stick? I'll reiterate the case against JNV for the coinshot's benefit. Kas says they were village reading Stick in their PM but not so subtly backtracked. They offered a CW to the Stick exe. They're not the Shaman because they've used a Blade. And I think they were on some exe wagons that went through and its safe to assume the elims contributed to them at some point. I hope. Just go look at a colored VC, you'll see what I mean
  25. Archer
    And who do you suppose the elims would vote for this cycle? Assuming we're on the right track and their offers last cycle we're flatly rejected, I imagine they're getting desperate to find something that sticks. That's why Cash's post rang alarm bells, and TUN's last cycle too. They run counter to the natural progression the rest of us have gone through. If you combine Kas and I's pools, you get JNV, TUN, Cash, Xino, and Elk as valid options. Cash and TUN have been gunning for Tani and me. I put it to you that the elim team needs us to make some off the board picks so they can whittle down our numbers. They're dealing with a Shaman, kill scans, kill blocks, people who voted off an elim and probably no thread control. Their only out is the Coinshot missing a few times and the thread changing their mind about some trusts, but they're in a poor position to influence that discussion. This feels too easy because we're in a strong position and have mostly had village dominated discussions. I'll explain TUN's vote by noting that protecting Cash would be suicide right now, even though losing another elim makes victory less attainable in the long run. Wait, was your assumption that there was only two elims left until a third viable candidate entered the chat? We're fine for today. If we get an elim, we buy even more time. There's no need to worry if we make the right decision today, so that should be the priority.
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