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Archer

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Everything posted by Archer

  1. Archer
    Yes* *make me a good e!team argument and I'm willing to reconsider. I like this group because they fit together nicely. Cash being independently suspicious while pushing the vote away from the CWers is too good of a group connection to pass up on. When you can build a coherent team narrative, it's usually right more often than singling out a suspicious person is. Cash JNV
  2. Archer
    I'm ultimately willing to get behind exing any of JNV, TUN, or Cash, but I'm also aware that consolidation is important. So lets talk this through but merge to a single train at most 12 hours from now. Worst case scenario is that we get a late Shaman claim and need time to digest it. Here's a VC snapshot from last Day. At this point Stick is frozen on Xino because to move would be to admit they were just sheeping Kas - the elims wouldn't have had much success building a CW on a player Kas already moved on from, so it's unclear what Xino's alignment is from that. Cash and TUN both offer tempting CWs, then JNV adds to the Archer one. The only weird thing is we eventually end up with: Cash moving their vote would have helped the elim team (until the vote avalanche came). It can be chalked up to inactivity and maybe even just distancing, but that's why I'm hesitant to take Cash out first. JNV and TUN on the other hand more directly supported Stick.
  3. Archer
    Fearmongering, fishing for information, creating a false sense of urgency, a refusal to consider the top two elim suspects right now (TUN, and JNV), and some general encouragement of paranoia. I think Cash might be evil
  4. Archer
    If I were to construct a narrative around this time last Day, I'd say the elims had outs. Kas was waffling, Elk and Chantara hadn't voted, and even if they never did, they'd brought the VC close enough to entice a tying vote from Alvron. Those factors make going all in against me a valid strategy. I was unconvinced that TUN's vote was genuine, but given the circumstances, I'm happy to vote either them or JNV Strange Why'd you kill the person you killed? (that's the coinshot one right) Didn't Kas specifically note that they didn't trust the person with the kill? I remember that coming up when I tried to meta the distro.
  5. Archer
    Well that blows up my theory about them gunning for the Shaman. Kas had a slip eslry in the game that indicated he wasn't that role, so this was probably just to hamstring the PM network and kill off a vocal player. I find it interesting that Turtle called the shot. @Alvrondo we know if the protection blade is in village hands? E!Turtle's ask would be strange if it is. I'm assuming you got an info dump from Kas. Who're ya voting for?
  6. Archer
    kinda answered your own question there Why'd you green out TUN? I think it defeats the purpose of the exercise if you mix in soft clears like Silh and presumably TUN in your eyes, but don't give what I'd consider a lock villager, Araris, at least equal treatment. Also there's a missed green on Mat and you erroneously listed Kas as a non voter D2.
  7. Archer
    Nice! Shalash's blade was an important item that could do: Illumination: Prevent any roleblocks, scans, or vote manip targeting self and target other player (Adhesion, Gravitation, Transformation, Transportation, Cohesion) for 1 cycle. (Day or Night) Transformation: Learn what Honorblades target player holds, if any. (Night only) I'd say this implies the scanner started in village hands, if it exists. If the Shaman ever figures out who that was, let us know! Edit: bussing is the optimal move so the elims get the blade back, right? I had a theory that newer players who aren't elims are more likely to call people Ookla names, but that didn't turn up anything. Elims would have known each other from the group doc by their OG names and stuck with them.
  8. Archer
    Actually, I let it play out. I was going to comment immediately after they came under suspicion, but I figured that it was better to let the thread think it through, even if I thought I knew the right answer (it's NAI). (Insanity) E!me would be terrified of people thinking I wrote this in the elim doc. (Kas) I agree it looks like a botched distancing attempt, but I feel like e!me would have voted Xino then moved on later. Otherwise it's sloppy play. So is camping on Wiz. I completely understand that I've made some obvious elim tells this game, but it's unrelated to alignment. (TUN) Or. The elim team started feeling guilty about waiting and decided to throw their votes out now. So an Archer push it is! My argument about Szeth was Mat, Kas, and I leaned village on them after the Night discussion, and given the thread state, that was enough to keep them safe. We were past exing people for liking ties, I thought. >. >. Why do all your posts read like blatant protection of teammates
  9. Archer
    Counter proposal: the thread has yet to lurch in a predictable direction and the elims don't want to commit their votes until they have a sense of where the critical mass of villagers are going with theirs. I'm jokingly thinking that you sound like you want to leave this exe up to a coin flip. :D. This really reads like they're teamed with Stick
  10. Archer
    1. I wrote Szeth because sometimes my brain thinks one thing and writes the other. Mentally, I've been consistent. I just have no proof of that. :P. 2. Delving too much further into the Chana kill risks exposing their identity so I'm hesitant to say more. 3. That's a hard read to make without knowing the status of their offsite games. And life. I'm just looking at the final VC, but there's something nuanced about not self pressing on the main wagon. If they weren't even at the time they voted, Xino was either consciously applying a read that led them to not vote Bookwyrm, or they smartly realized two big wagons are better than one. I'd have to look at the VC at their time of voting. But self pres is the free pass to pad a wagon, so it'd be interesting if they chose not to.
  11. Archer
    I actually think Chana shot Szeth. Our Night discussion made it clear that Mat was widely village read. Szeth should have been too, but I can see someone having Cash's mindset, wanting to check the random voters. Annnd you got to this conclusion later in the post. My overall impression of Stick is that they're bringing well-packaged ideas to the thread but not bouncing ideas off of people the way a confused villager might. I can't find a single example of them backtracking/changing their mind, which implies they're presenting a case, not constructing one on the fly. As for their votes, they're in on the Wizard wagon. They start D2 with a strong push, which is meant to seize control of the thread direction. Then I think them adding to your Xino vote was meant to set the thread direction again by establishing a main wagon people might gravitate to simply because it's an existing wagon. Who isn't Xino's elim teammate?: Araris encouraged me to vote Xino D1. Xino voted Elk in a threatening manner D2 (I thought it was D1 before because I looked at the wrong VC). Insanity voted Xino somewhat dangerously D2. The Shaman and Chana probably aren't elims. I'm saying we have a smaller than average pool of e-e partners for Xino, so either they're a great flip to make, or they're village. As for why they might be evil, I flagged (before I backed off of it) them voting strategically, not by suspicions on D1. On both D1 and D2 they end up on a main wagon, so they're adding to the big pushes that keep the elims from ever being close to being in contention. That's why I specifically asked her to explain how she got to that vote. Was it RNG of 20 players or perhaps some kind of limited RNG, like just people with votes on them. I'd actually caution against calling it RNG because they specifically said 'flips coin', which implies a 50/50? It's a very convenient vote for the elims at that point because it makes I think a four way tie. Would you rather kill Xino or Stick and are you willing to throw your vote behind that?
  12. Archer
    Hi Sil! To question that conclusion, I'd argue that it doesn't take away any of the elims' likely kill options if they aren't widely suspected, so it's a low cost play. I feel like the elim coaching line of inquiry is better suited for more general tactics. This is possibly too specific for it to have come up in the doc. Self analysis where you shade yourself, which is what they've done a few times, is weird to read. They're very intieresting Two counter theories, Kas: -people were watching for save attempts and would probably have forced a tie if the elims had padded the margins, so hoping for the best might have been the safer play -the elims might have vote manip That said, I think I agree with the v!Elk read you make. There's a number of not e-e people to them sigh I wanted an easy read
  13. Archer
    I'm guessing Szeth was the NK. Some other working assumptions: -Turtle is village because they had and volunteered they had a PM with Illwei. -The person who made the PMs is village because they wasted one on the imminent NK target. -Kas is village. -Cash is village for their retraction of their scheme yesterday. -Insanity and Araris aren't teamed with Xino because of their D1 votes. Xino's D1 vote on Elk means they're not paired either. -I'm setting aside, not clearing, Alv/Elk and Chantara because I have reasons to lightly village read them. This leaves Araris, TUN, JNV, Shining, Xino, Insanity, Stick, and Tani on my list of people I might vote. Because of the Bookwyrm vote, I think we'll want to flip JNV eventually. I also see the logic behind a Xino push - and will note the high upside of an e!flip, especially if it turns out that those who have villagey roles are within the suspect pool that remains after that. But I'm most riled by Stick. Their previous votes are where I'd expect an elim's to be. They're also seem to be pretty independently minded, which implies a hidden agenda. Them starting every Day with a strong push but not engaging in the night talk is triggering my gut. Edit: ignore that last sentence, it's incorrect. Stick
  14. Archer
    I'd characterize it more as the limiting of our options to a category that isn't as guaranteed to have an elim in it as you'd hope. Anyway, I wasn't offering honest support. I just wanted to see if it was a ploy put out by e!you and e!Szeth. Your retraction looks villagery though, unless you went rouge with that plan and got told off by the elim doc. I'm split between thinking that a village's first reaction should have been that any exing of them is bad and thinking that both alignments sometimes try to avoid pressure by using indirect defenses. I'm leaning towards suspecting e!Szeth for forgetting to consider that they might be a villager.
  15. Archer
    I think this is a great idea! But I have to insist on doing Elk first, since I suspect them more. Do you mind if we flip flop the order? Thank you, person who changed their name and profile picture at the same time. o.O Hey Stick, what do you think about me?
  16. Archer
    Let's say e!Mat started off the game with a strong desire not to let you lead the village in helpful directions. D1, this leads to some mutual shade throwing and I believe them backing off. D2 they have the opportunity to join you on v!Szeth (because they aren't e-e) as a retaliation vote, but decline to. Instead, they cast a feeble vote on TUN that they know won't look good in retrospect. (But it fits with v!them harboring suspicion of TUN and you, who were helpfully voting alongside each other at the time.) They then sheep me twice more, which concedes thread control. Surely by the time they decided to pull the plug on the thread dominance plan, they'd further retract their already softened stance on you and take some of your explicitly presented reasons over my (often changing) gut. Instead they seem to be subconsciously not wanting to vote with you, I contend because villagers don't lose their suspicions of someone quickly. You might say e!they're trying to keep voting on you as an available option, but they're undermining their credibility too much in the process for a backup plan. This post's theory would be undermined by e!Xino, because e!Mat would have been more desperate for a CW and unable to vote with you. I don't have a great counter to that rebuttal right now
  17. Archer
    Doesn't care. Or, not thinking very hard about decisions. Let it be known that Mat is copying me, not the other way around. I clocked it, but it speaks to a commitment to not trusting Kas that an elim would be overcomplicating their life by extending. The elims might have decided early on to aggressively take thread control from Kas, but then yielding it to me like this would defeat the whole point. I feel like the elims will kill any blade holders they find by scan, but that's not a strategy you can count on. @Ookla the Implosion can you explain this vote, please? How exactly did you arrive at the decision?
  18. Archer
    I know why I'm voting Araris, but why are you voting Araris, @ookla the POKE VOTE? I forget what Jez is, but is there a way of identifying blade holders? Shaman gets information, so they should be discernable because that influences their activity. It's also a more important position to the game. Missing PMs or a Coinshot or any single blade ability is less seismic than the custom Shaman role. -Archer
  19. Archer
    Didn't Cash also have a really sus vote D1? Maybe it was tie related in reasoning. Anyway, Araris Stick Wanna join us on the Araris wagon? We have a great rationale for it, we just aren't telling anyone what it is
  20. Archer
    I am not the best person to sheep this game. :D. Would you rather kill Araris for vibes? I'd actually do that but only if no one asks why because I don't have any reasons for it This is probably the case!
  21. Archer
    Villagers: -The Tie Guys seem too self aware to be likely elims. I imagine it's at least 2/3 village among Alv, Stick, and Elk so I'm going to pass on all of them. -Chantara had a villagery response to my theorizing about voting behaviour. Plus I think I read they have the kill blade? -Kas is asking to be voted off after setbacks, which isn't in their elim meta. Elims: -Stick started today with a strong push on Elk. I feel like the Tie Guys are the low hanging fruit the elims would target, unless generally implicating fans of ties implcates say the one of those three that is evil. It looks like Stick procuded an Elk argument during the Day but didn't mention them during the Night, so it doesn't look like progression. It look like they're trying to influence votes. (Am I just looking for people with an urgent agenda? Yeah kind of.) -Bookwyrm's vote reasoning today feels feeble if based on a full thread re read. They didn't find any anecdotes worth highlighting? -Araris could be evil because they're the only high profile player I'm getting constant bad vibes from. TUN Stick
  22. Archer
    Illwei probably wasn't going to be the Shaman if Ashbringer was aware that they'd missed an important action submission in a recent game. e!I'd be gunning for the Shaman, which coincidentally would probably overlap with my thread control kill choices anyway. The person who put the kill in was probably more focussed on Illwei's good LG performance than what went down in my MR. I was happy with the half vote I applied by saying I might vote Xino. I have low expectations and just do stuff in hopes that small reactions mean big things later in the game. By the way, I declare that Omniscient and Mat are not e-e because of their confusion when talking to each other last page.
  23. Archer
    TUN has been opening all the top secret PMs. Shame on them
  24. Archer
    In Mat's defence, Kas specializes in playstyle comparisons. So if you're looking at his (small sample size!) of elim games, you're playing the game he wants you to play. For all we know he's been preparing to high effort an elim game for months and has finally gotten the opportunity to enact his plan. I'm cool with keeping options open. Self voting, Turtle obsessing... That's two small things my gut didn't like so I'm happy to not immediately village read him. By the way @Kasimir, asking Chan to vote Wiz was engagement fishing. I think they'd posted recently so I thought they might still be around. Also the Wiz-Alv thing was me trying hard to not break the rule about exing people for their playstyle. RNG is annoying but NAI. I eventually decided that was stupid and changed gears. Also Wiz's comments did seem villagery. Should have articulated that in the moment. Not really, it's more of a hypothetical to argue against early tie obsession. That said, my theorizing is leading me to believe the elims would avoid the extremes. Don't be obsessed with ties so blatantly, don't be reactive to ties. E!me would just stomach a teammate being endangered given the threadstate and my inability to hammer, but they might have tinkered around the edges to bring up more CWs just in case. Here's a gut check VC. Asterisk indicates gut. Not indicates based on their place in the final vote. Nulls are lack of info. This is probably worthless but I'm checking out for a while and want to give you an idea of my thoughts. Evil: Cash, Araris*, Xino*, Tani, Szeth, ? : Stick, Insanity, Chan Village: Kas*, Illwei*, TUN*, Mat, Alv*, JNV*, Elk* TUN apparently slipping that they don't open PM's is villagey.
  25. Archer
    I think I said I'd happily vote Xino, then Araris asked me to follow him. He had Xino pressure covered and I was waiting on Wiz so I didn't bother, then I changed my mind because I felt it fit Xino's playstyle, even though it's a generally strange move. My guess is that people who arbitrarily limit their options based on the VC are doing it because of thread fatigue, not malice. They figure votes have been cast for a reason, so it's easier to pick among three than twenty. Or votes are cast based on VC because people want to get lucky by applying pressure to an elim by bringing them into the fold. Problem is that's essentially random and allows you to not give any reasons. Elims can use the cover of wanting to make a tie to bring other wagons up to the level of their endangered teammates and the tie maker players won't question it because it matches their philosophy. Feel free to prove me wrong by telling me what good thinking about ties 24 hours before rollover did us, Alv, Elk, Szeth. You applied so much parity with so much advance warning that the elims were ostensibly guaranteed not to be in the lead and were guaranteed not to be able to break the tie, so why would they bother messing with it? RNG voter. Then because Alv said something like 'I suspect you at-Archer for casting that vote' and that was weird. And then I couldn't tell if their posts about them dying for the good of the village seemed like a normal reaction.... but they certainly weren't pressing hard to save themselves so I switched. Szeth had a cockiness to their posts that I felt wasn't warrented by a villager who didn't have enough context to be confident since they hadn't completed reading the thread. Plus, voted for an unreadable reason in someone I'm village reading.
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