Yitzi2

Could be. At the time, I was fairly certain he was...now, I'm not so sure. But at least thank you for explaining your reasoning: You're suspicious of me because I thought Rand was the PO, when you think there is very strong evidence he isn't.

The first one could very possibly be him trying to seem less PO-ey, while not really harming his ability to lynch the PO. The second would very well fit a PO who wasn't planning on trying to do it with the D1 lynch anyway (especially as most people probably could figure out the impact of the PO)...but then Joe's "deal with the elims" PMs were too good an opportunity to pass up. The third also only affects a PO who'd try to roleclaim. I wouldn't say those posts are strong evidence he's the PO...but they are certainly compatible with a PO trying to hide his identity who wasn't expecting an opportunity on Joe to come up so soon. (I also don't remember if I'd carefully read those posts at the time; I sort of skimmed the first few hours' worth.)

Namely?

So then why did my "lynch the PO because he has a vested interest in working with the elims" argument cause you to be more suspicious of me (IIRC) rather than less?

And proposing the lynch of a neutral who has a vested interest in cooperating with the eliminators is that much more sensible for an elim?

You explained significant reason to suspect he was a villager, and in particular why his actions that day were not an indication of elim-hood. That does not constitute proof that he's a villager, at least not sufficient for the instinctuality of your response. That said, I am starting to think that the evidence favors you simply you going overboard with trust rather than an "elimbuddies" situation. Aman.

Why so very firmly that there's such an intense reaction? If you are village, I really do want to understand your reason, as I simply cannot see any legitimate basis for being that extremely certain. Are you suggesting that you wouldn't "admit" to being village when you're an elim? Because if so, admitting it when you're village seems a really bad idea from a meta perspective...

Please explain. Why would Village!Aman have such a kneejerk defense of Randuir?

I would presume either that, or his post about PCO strategy, matching what the PCO had been doing, was their clue (though that requires fairly tight timing). Or they have a UIB. Potential culprits who were on since that post: BR, Asterion, Striker, you, me, Lopen, Seonid...and Ecth is borderline.

If it was a cytonics backfire, the elims didn't kill last night, and it was also probably his first time killing. And it would require him to have killed after he said the PC shouldn't kill. I'm inclined to say it was the elim kill.

Agreed. I think they're the most suspicious, but that doesn't mean we should close down the discussion.

Debatable. Killing at random increases the chance of killing an elim...and even a random PC kill has a much higher chance of killing an elim than the elim kill does. The real reasons to defend instead are (a) to hopefully catch the elim kill with the defense, and (b) to avoid being killed by Cytonics. Whether they're as good as doubling the can-hit-elim kills...as I said, debatable.

To answer your question to Rae: I think it would provide some input, but not as much as if Aman dies and doesn't flip elim; this was my main reason for voting Aman over you.

It's not. Vigenere ciphers have the weakness that the number of characters in the ciphered version is the same as in the original message, so we know your original message had 13 characters. Since it's a role, there are only so many possibilities. However, his idea would imply that (if my calculations were accurate) the key is nonsense, which it shouldn't be if it's a fictional last name.

Actually, it's BR's role that was given in a cipher. EDIT: Also, Asterion, maybe you should try to figure out the key before you're so certain you have the right answer.

It would seem so.

By the way, while the cipher source that you linked isn't allowed, I don't think it's problematic for everybody to know about the particular quirks it uses (as they will be needed for Ecth, or anyone else, to decode it by hand): Where a normal Vigenere cipher is based on the letters A-Z and can't produce numbers, that site has a version where it's based on A-Z, a-z, 0-9, and blank space. Experimentation (not on the code itself, of course) yields that the blank space is positioned before the numbers. @asterion137 it was a Vigenere cipher.

1. I believe he did, and I simply didn't put 2 and 2 together. The mention of Convict in particular in his first (IIRC) post is still suspicious, but I no longer think he is PO. 2. You are correct. I got confused because Orlok responded to Aman when pointing it out. Nevertheless, due to the intensity of Aman's reaction to the proposed lynch of you and the response to cloudjumper, I will be keeping my vote on Aman, at least for now.

Ok, lengthy analysis incoming: Flash: Asked me for clarification about a convoluted plan I suggested Joe might be pulling off. Did a bit of RP, slightly overdone on the "I'm village" side of things. Voted for Straw. Night 1, FoS'd me for a fairly flimsy reason, though the results of the day1 vote may have made him a bit jumpy on that result (I know that it wasn't a bunch of elims arranging to save elim!me, but I can't really expect anyone else to). Later, FoS'd Rand, so it's probably just the day1 vote. Cloud: Made a few disorganized comments. Suggested that if Rand is an elim, he doubts that Aman is...if they both are, Cloud probably is as well. (I would say that so is Crimsn, but Crimsn claimed neutral and apparently told Joe her role; it's possible that she told Joe that she's really an elim, but that seems implausible. It's worth revisiting if all neutrals are accounted for as not being Crimsn as well as Rand and Aman being elims, but that's as far as I'd go. Crimsn also was a lot less emphatic about the "if Rand is, Aman isn't" statement than Cloud was.) Asterion: Called out the eavesdropping potential of the group PMs; if STINK is an elim, this is a point for village!Asterion. Also pointed out the flaw in the "Rand is an elim trying to turn the neutrals" theory. Overall, he looks village-ish to me. PK: He started out with a post that seems way too suspicious to have come from an elim ("lovely X you have here...a shame..." is just too "classic mafioso" for someone who is all that self-conscious about being thought to be an elim). His most recent post seems to have disregarded the possibility that Joe is dealing with both sides. Striker: Suggested that the elims might want to take out the neutrals. This seems a bit strange (elims don't need to take out neutrals to win), so I'd guess that either he's an elim who didn't suggest his idea to the other elims, or all the elims are inexperienced, or he's not an elim. I'm getting a bit of a village read from his first post of day 2, but I never trust reads that don't have clear reasoning behind them. Elenion: Did a quick vote due to (he claimed, at least) being busy and following STINK (who read village to him in PMs). If STINK is an elim, he should be under suspicion as well. Also defended Rand, but not as emphatically or knee-jerkily as Aman (see below), so I don't see that as a strong indicator of anything. Araris: Posted once to copy someone else's vote (and the reason for it), Then significantly later (after being asked), he gave more detail and challenged Rae and Elenion for switching to Straw rather than someone else. The criticism doesn't seem very well-thought-out, and it looks to me like he's posting to avoid the lynch; whether that's an elim who doesn't want to help the village, or a villager with no ideas (either just because he has no ideas, or because he's too busy for a full analysis like this) who doesn't want a mislynch, I couldn't say. Ecth: Accused STINK because Drake: Pointed out that the elims wouldn't want to waste a kill on neutrals (of course, we saw that they did, but presumably that was as a deal involving the Thief's Child and therefore not a waste). This is presumably a response to Striker, and may be a weak indication that he and Striker are not both elims. He also suggested some things the elims could do (though at the expense of the neutrals); as an elim, he'd probably want to keep those secret if he was planning on actually doing them. It could also be a basis for getting the village to lynch neutrals...actually, in light of his focus in the earlier post that the elim might claim convict in particular (not exactly the safest role to claim because it has two people who can refute it), he just (well, "just" in the sense of when I typed that; it's some time from there until I post this) became my top candidate for PO. If so, I wonder whether his retraction was due to a PM from Joe, offering to let himself be lynched later on. Called for lynching STINK in a clearly exaggerated manner and not-serious; if STINK turns out to be an elim, that will raise the question of whether this was a way of protecting STINK without being too obvious about it. (i.e. it slightly increases the chance that both are elims, but without confirmation that STINK is, Drake still has the evidence in favor of him being non-elim, though my thoughts about the danger inherent in the PO remain in place; again, it's nothing personal, Drake.) Dalinar: Pointed out that it's in the interest of the village for the neutrals not to roleclaim, in a way that implies why it is in the interest of the neutrals to roleclaim. That seems a bit elim-ish to me. On the other hand, he claimed to be "lurking", which is something an elim might be wary of doing. Also wary of analyzing due to it getting him lynched; as someone with a few close calls in that regard, I can see why that would have an effect even on a village player (after all, any village player knows of only one situation that is unquestionably a mislynch, and wants to avoid it). And as a bonus: Aman: Clearly defending Randuir, to the point of instaposting about votes for him before even reading the reasoning for the vote, and others have pointed that out too. It's a bit too blatant for me to want to say that it's because they're elim-buddies, and on top of that Rand voting for Joe doesn't really seem very elim-like (though Wilson pointed out that could be a ploy by Aman and Rand because they're both known to be so dangerous as elims; while we're all agreed that it's a huge tinfoil, I just don't see any other good reason for the intensity of the defense. Alternatively, it's possible that elim!Rand didn't even consider the alienation factor and just voted Joe for some other reason, perhaps as an elim deal with the PO), but I can't really think of any other good reasons for that reaction. Orlok also pointed out that Aman gave an argument that really would give the neutrals a reason to help the elims. He (she? I don't really know these things) told cloudjumper "I'm reading town on you" due to cloudjumper saying "if Rand is elim, Aman isn't" after Aman had admitted that he almost certainly was if Rand was...Aman. (Aman also indicated significant suspicion of Jon, who turned out to be village, but those sort of mistakes happen often, especially early on, so it's not a major contributing factor in my vote.)

Wilson, you might want to edit the link out of your reply, too.

More than one person can ask the same person not to use Cytonics. It's a bit more suspicious on the second one if the person asked ends up elim-killed, but it can be done if there's a reason for it.

Oh, and assuming there are 3 elims left (4 to start), we're doing pretty much as well as can be expected with good play by both sides.

Unless he was just taking a huge gamble that someone would...but I don't think that's very likely. (And if he was, that would leave open the possibility that not lynching him quite yet might lead to his recklessness giving us other elims as well.) The end of day 1 was when I was sleeping. If you meant the second half of day 1 (Sunday): Probably because it's easier to get started with a phase where I didn't already miss a large chunk of it. I also had an in-person game (of Seafall, if you've heard of it) taking up a significant chunk of Sunday evening.

So early on Drake tried to switch from Arinian to me. Anybody familiar with elim!Drake's meta, whether he tends to protect fellow elims in lynches or not?

Actually, hopefully they have more Firebrands. I'd rather an alien Firebrand than an alien Soldier, UIB agent, or probably even Politician. Cyto adepts are a bit more questionable due to the request plan.