Rathmaskal

OK folks, I'm not sure if I'm eliminating too much or not, but I'm down to 2 more likely combinations. If it's neither of these two, then I'll probably start over completely with my analysis. The clue I'm having the most trouble with is 'necessity'...the nice thing is that even after making an accusation, I still get to talk! Paranoid King - Whitespine, Spectacles CadCom - Lifeless Soldier, Wig So, @Herowannabe, I would like to make an accusation! Paranoid King, with the Whitespine in the Spectacles!

Since it's been an hour, even though no one has posted, I figured I'd make a new post for the reasoning on the last two... A Joe in the Bus - I'm eliminating due to evidence (combined with methods of murder) - since none of the methods of murder would imply footprints to me, it seems that the evidence MUST have that as a component. Medallion - nope Lockpicks - nope Safehand Glove - nope Soulstamp - nope Shu-Korath Pendant - nope Walin - I'm eliminating due to methods of murder all not fitting The Shaod - Even if this fits the rest of the clues, it doesn't provide us a method to get to footprint as none of Walin's evidence would provide that Chasmfiend - Would think this would end up being injury rather than accident...I'm OK with opening this back up if someone feels strongly though - would require a pairing with skull I would think to make sure that 'head' is included...although skull is supposed to be evidence while head is supposed to be on the corpse...so that seems like a bit of a stretch Black Frayn - Drug...seems likely to be poisoning at this point though, although accident I guess is plausible. Regardless, lose any chance of footprints showing up. Fire - I don't think this fits anywhere very well Martial Arts - seems unlikely to be an accident. Whew. I'll keep looking at things to see if I think anyone else can be eliminated. Feel free to let me know if you think any of these are off...

I believe Lak is a currency on Taldain. I'm going to work through a post here and edit it in unless there's a few responses. Edited part: As I've been analyzing things, I believe there are a few people we can eliminate due to that fact that either all of their methods of murder or all of their pieces of evidence can be eliminated by at least one clue: Droughtbringer - I'm eliminating due to methods of murder all not fitting Bloodsealing - no way that's an accident Metal Poisoning - I'd think this would fall under poisoning Rioting - not really thinking this would be an accident either...but I guess I'm open to someone opening this back up if they feel strongly about it Dagger - not an accident Punch - not an accident Randuir - I'm eliminating due to methods of murder all not fitting Bare Hands - definitely not an accident Burned at the Stake - ... Obsidian Axe - ... Swampvine - would probably go under poison Kick - definitely not an accident Rathmaskal - Devotary of Spontaneity - I'm eliminating due to methods of murder all not fitting Poisoned Dart - would probably go under poison Cut-away vines - they could go under accident, but I'd imagine loss of blood or severe injury more likely...I'm open to opening this back up Torture - Again, I'd probably see this as another cause Highstorm - Could be an accident, but then you'd need something for sure with head and footprint in the evidence... Shardplate - Could be an accident, but I'm going with severe injury MUCH more likely. I have 2 more to go through later. (A Joe in the Bush and Walin) Need to head out for a bit though.

I'm finding Itiah's posts as more likely to be an accomplice than the actual assassin... (And yes, I know I haven't followed up with more analysis...had some obligations last night. I'll see if I can sneak in some time during work today)

I'll try to add more content later, but since I'm about to head home from work, here are some quick combinations that I think may fit our clues so far (so I don't lose them at least) Nightmaw + Pet Monkey Ettmetal Explosion + Boots Lost Divine Breath or Shades + Horseshoes Booby Trap or Firesnap Lizards + Footprint Hemalurgic Chimera + Dirt? Cut-away vines or Highstorm + Crab Legs? or Wetleek Sap Trail? Explosion or Dehydration + Hoofprints Don't have a ton of notes on these yet.

Harry turned his head as the note from the oracle was read. He had been looking forward to studying Investicon for his new movie, A PI to the Face, a story about a man who works as a clown during the day but moonlights as a private investigator. Now, he was actually going to get a chance to BE a PI. Harry looked over his shoulder at a plant in the corner, a thoughtful look on his face.

I'm in. After not having very much success selling insurance, Larry has decided not to rejoin Investicon this year. However, during a holiday gathering, where he was talking about his experience, his brother Harry, a B-movie actor, became interested and has decided to attend.

Dang, well played everyone. The fact that you two were down to 2 possibilities...one of which was correct is very impressive. I've now played 3 games with rand...he's been evil in all 3. I'm just going to assume he's always evil now.

Larry heard the accusation and quickly dismissed it. There was no way an investigator, even one part of Investicon, would have enough information ALREADY to be able to legitimately make an accusation. Then, the Oracle confirmed. Well then. Larry switched hats immediately. Excuse me, Mr. Selksi. Not only do I sell insurance, but I also dabble in the bail bond industry. I can have you out of prison, able to defend yourself immediately upon your arraignment, assuming the judge allows a bail amount that is. Other than that, I do have several insurance plans available for the incarcerated. Stolen lunch insurance Prison yard insurance Abusive guard insurance Among others. Additionally, I can recommend quite a good lawyer. My brother Barry is an excellent defense attorney. ~~ Well done Elandera.

I'm not sure why multiple people are campaigning to remove ranged weapons from the list of potential 'accident' candidates... Hunting accident? (regardless of how unbelievable they typically are) AND, I sell a great hunting accident insurance plan.

Hmm, Larry thought to himself, a tough sell this one. He pulled out a simple homeowners insurance packet. "Here see if this take care of you... "Now, the fourth wall, eh? Let's see what I have there... Fairy Insurance Feruchemist Attack Insurance Fire Insurance Fog Insurance (see Mists, the) Fourth Wall Insurance "Ahh, yes, here we go. "Hmmm, seems pretty straight forward." ~~ OK, so I'm thinking sudden sound, Sel, and accident are likely our most useful clues this round. Regarding the world, I don't think you can discount anything generic, just anything that would definitely NOT happen on Sel. So: Koloss, Deathants, Fenweed Poison, Parshendi, Highstorm, Ettmetal Explosion, Deathweed Bark, Tompher Poison, Shades, Hemalurgic Spike, Birchbane, Swampvine, Blackbane Leaf, Black Frayn, Aimian, Deepwalker, Steelrunning, Nightmaw, Whitespine, The Bands of Mourning, Midnight Essence, Kandra Digestive Acids, Rioting (assuming this is the allomantic ability and not just a random riot), Meekers, Mistwraith, Sand Mastery, Awakened Rope, and Sandling all seem rather unlikely. The accident would eliminate a decent number of these as well I would assume (and reinforce the idea that off-world poisons were not used) but also likely remove the following: Torture, Martial Arts, Obsidian Axe, Garotte, Hammer, Sword, Kick, Dreok's Axe, Soulcasting, Rope, Hook, Poisoned Wine, Stone, Bare Hands, Sacrificial Altar, Glass Dagger, Buried Alive, Spear, Punch, Bloodsealing, Burned at the Stake (I'm being a bit more liberal here...with what I'm NOT eliminating...figure a ranged weapon could still be an accident?) Finally, sudden sound. I'm fairly certain we can eliminate the following: Blood Loss, Venomous Bite, Aon Sheo, Acid, Jeskeri Cult Ritual, Smoke, Suffocation, Aon Daa, Drowning, Aon Ehe, Essence Marks, Metal Poisoning, Bow and Arrow, Dakhor Ritual, Poisoned Dart, Toxic Fungus, Poinsonous Sting, Disease, Fire We can add in with 'Strangers' I'd think: Betrayal So, unless I'm just way off base, I'd think our method of murder is most likely one of the following: Air-powered Crossbow (unlikely but possible) Booby Trap Grand bow (unlikely but possible) Pistol Rifle Explosion Coins (unlikely but possible) Whew, that's a lot of typing. And kudos to everyone who came up with all these cards... I had to look up a few items to see what/where exactly they were.

This was too easy...Larry already had someone coming up to him asking about insurance. "Now, Rettih...I know you don't think you're going to need specific types of insurance, maybe you never attempt to go worldhopping...but that's why get insurance. What if worst comes to worst. You sound like an ideal candidate for our Spontaneous Worldhopping insurance plan. Say you're walking down the street, without a care in the world. Suddenly, you see out of the corner of your eye a small glimmer. It's Nothing, you think to yourself. So you keep walking. But that glimmer stays in the corner of your eye. Eventually, you turn around and walk toward it. Or maybe you start running, and not watching where you're going. BAM, you run into a perpendicularity and find yourself on Threnody. With our standard package, you get a free ride back to where you came from. Add in the extra 'Accidentally Landed in Threnody' package and we'll even provide you with enough silver to ring yourself for three nights." Larry reached into his briefcase. "I've got some basic paperwork right here. Just some standard payment schedules, negligence clauses, that type of thing." All contracts are final. Any gross negligence on the part of the insuree will result in a claim being rejected. Any historical or magical items acquired must be surrendered upon return trip to home world. Larry's Discount Insurance (LDI) reserves the right to cancel any policy upon notice to insuree without cause. LDI will, under no circumstances, be liable for any unexpected activity during return trips including, but not limited to, vessel encounters, equipment failure, etc. "Now, what's your life insurance situation?"

I'll join in on the "If you don't make it to 25, sign me up" fun.

Larry leaned back in his chair after the old man had completed his rant. A murder? Larry saw opportunity. Nothing like tragedy to get people thinking about insurance. He looked around the room, looking for his first target. Life insurance would be the easy sell today, of course...but there was a lot he had on his mind... Wild Spren insurance, Spontaneous Worldhopping insurance (with the Accidentally Landed in Threnody clause of course), Mist insurance (dang he'd been able to sell a lot of that on Scadrial...nowhere else oddly), Ran out of Breath as a Returned away from Nalthus insurance, and of course, his favorite, Chosen By the Dor insurance (although no one had bought that in thousands of years...must be something different on Sel since he'd last headed there). Larry stood up. "Before we get started, people, it's clear we live in dangerous times. If someone in here is, in fact, a murderer, there's no telling what else could be going on. If you go missing, who is going to take care of your family? What if your shardplate is stolen or vandalized? Who knows what's going to happen if Odium breaks free? "So, would anyone like to buy some insurance? I'll provide discounts on any bundles people buy. Never can be too safe. You won't find anyone else in the Cosmere who can offer the prices and service I can." As Larry continued, he could see the gloryspren appearing above his head...Hmm, must be a better speech than he thought. "My contracts are written in steel, not even Ruin, oh, shoot, Harmony...that's right...NOT EVEN HARMONY can change these contracts!"

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention. I never replied to CadCom's post about my coloring of the word "Steel"... I was trying to role claim without role claiming...haha. I'm actually moderately surprised that anyone noticed the coloring since I tried very hard to make it just barely blue. Also, Alvron, still waiting for your vote on day 3. (Oh, and for some reason I had the elim team mixed up in my last post...sorry, Snip wasn't an elim again)

Yeah... I got the PM from Devotary saying I was dead the day I was going to spam PMs across the entire game. Sad day. Incredible write-ups by the mods. I currently have a 100% death record through three games of SE!! (Although I'm proud to say this was the first one I wasn't actually lynched) I did find it kind of funny that Snipexe and Xino both ended up elim again...definitely didn't see that coming. Sorry I couldn't be there with you guys! Haha Also, randuir, I'm sure we'll be on the same team one of these games Looking forward to the next one folks!

(Finally got a chance to come back and look at this) I'm actually not too concerned with the Snape ability - Voldemort converting people isn't required. If he decides that there's too much in the elim doc to risk converting someone, he could just avoid that. Plus it fits thematically I guess maybe adding a wincon of something like 'Harry must survive' might work? Not sure what a decent additional wincon would be (Yes, I know 'survive' would also be a decent one...but that doesn't fit thematically...) The Cedric one is a bit different... I purposely used the word 'speak' so that he wouldn't die automatically if Voldemort just started making PMs. Honestly, I think it's more of a weakness than anything else. I did consider that to some degree... In order for it to reasonably be used as a scan, I'd think Cedric would need 2 open PMs with other people (or somehow trust people enough in thread?) and then start opening PMs after that? With 1 PM/night, and only being able to reasonably say, "This is not Voldemort" or "I'm dead"...I don't think that's too bad. The ability I'm actually most unsure of is whether the Resurrection Stone is a decent one. Again, it's something that fits thematically with the game, but, as written, it 100% outs that player's role. Anyway, I know there's a decent backlog of games and this one doesn't hit the S in SE...but I think (a variation of it at least) would be a lot of fun at some point.

Sign me up. I'll be Larry. An insurance salesman.

Whew, great job folks. As I think I've mentioned, I'm not going to be active much during this night cycle...but I'll get at least one post in here. Once I do get some time, I plan on starting some analysis on people's interactions with kidpen. Also, I'm curious about the timing of certain votes in that bandwagon. Always interesting to see what happens with bandwagons when it's obvious they're going to happen. There's clearly going to be an elim or two in there. Just a matter of figuring out whether it was determined it was a lost cause and it was time to bus? Or was it a bus from the early going?

Hmm, we get a bonus day on the cycle...and less posting. Speaking of which, I'll probably be fairly inactive for a majority of the night cycle unfortunately. I'm going to stick with Kidpen I think unless anyone has any compelling arguments as the day goes on. Just to clarify on Rand's count - the strikeouts are correct...so Phattemer has 0 votes. That leaves us with 9 votes made at this point in the cycle. I'd like to see a few more votes at this point. @xinoehp512 @Steeldancer @Bort @Alvron haven't voted as far as I can tell. Any thoughts from the four of you?

So, a couple quick thoughts right now: I'm working through looking at Araris and other interactions. (Sorry that these don't quite end up in order) One that kind of stands out to me is the quick 1-2-3 votes on rand d2... Araris was the 3rd of these 3. Seems unlikely that that would be multiple elims right there. So I'm giving WfY and Steel a soft clear. WfY a bit more... The Steel/Araris interaction that resulted in this: This could easily be some distancing...so only a slight lean there. (Ninja #1 occurs here) I'm also kind of curious what was happening in the Synod doc when Araris said this: Next thing that kind of stands out is the analysis post from d2 (Here's part of it): There's bound to be something in this post that isn't true... I'm leaning toward that since it is the most (Ninja #2 occurs here) generic. (Ninja #3 occurs here) That makes me think that maybe Sart is OK as well for now. OK, as for my suspicions. Right now it's tough... WfY still has had some sketchy moves so far... (Ninja #4 here...dang, active time) I don't like people not being around/posting for this long, so Bort is going to be on my list as well... But right now, Kidpen seems suspicious enough to vote on. Main reason here is that Kidpen has basically been voting on whims so far...has promised additional rationale but never really delivered...and the rationale for the Coop vote d1 still seems a bit odd. OK, no more ninjas now!

Hey folks, some morning (my time) night (game time) thoughts on voting so far. d1 we had 5 votes disappear. d2 we had 2. None of the dead people, unless I'm misreading the rules, had an ability that would result in votes disappearing 5 people have voted on both lynches - I find this mostly NAI at this point - it's really easy to avoid being involved in lynch votes too much when there hasn't been an elim targeted yet Xino Kidpen WfY Phatterner Araris 4 people have technically missed both lynches AND voted both cycles. Although each of them voted for Itiah d1. Don't see anything there. Stick Alvron Phatterner Sart Since Itiah technically had the most votes d1, here are the corresponding Coop votes that didn't vote for Snipexe d2 Steel (Phatterner) Randuir (abstain) 3 people have abstained both days. All three have posted already tonight, so hopefully that's going to go away Bort CadCom Jondesu The following people have flown under the radar in that I didn't mention them elsewhere... The remaining criteria available is abstain once, vote once. Although both were d1 abstentions. (in case you saw the original logic) Rath Ark In conclusion...I'm not getting anything out of vote reads yet.

Hey CadCom, WfY DID vote...for Snipexe...

Dang it, I hate when stuff like this happens... I feel like I'm being set up as a fall guy for the elim team right now. If Snip turns villages it's going to be, "Well, there wasn't really a bandwagon until Rath voted on him"... I'm going for a short run. Hopefully someone gives me a good counter-bandwagon target when I get back. If not, I guess I should stick to my guns. (Although I'm somewhat tempted to switch over to phatt just because I think Alvron has magic powers.)

Yeah, I wasn't really saying it was a real upside... More just commentary on the fact that we don't have a ton of votes...and there's no concentration so far. That whole text > tone thing escapes me sometimes. For now, I'm going to cede to the multiple comments noting that WfY may just be having some erratic first-game play (much as I did a mere 2 games ago...and will probably still display on occasion). We're getting down near the end of the cycle and it's making me thing (obviously) that we're either going to have a late-cycle bandwagon again...or a garbage truck full of abstentions. Also, the fact that we already have multiple people calling out Snipexe as suspicious is making me wonder about that as well. Snipexe, I'd like to hear an explanation on this as well.