Rathmaskal
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Aaand, either there was a mistake in the vote counting, or the elims are taunting us now... Someone daggered randuir's vote onto...randuir... Also, Drake, what the heck... Did Eternum leave behind notes saying, "Make sure you vote on whomever gets lynched...you've got a legacy to uphold!" Apologies for not voting - my last meeting was supposed to end an hour before the cycle ended...instead it was like 20 minutes and I didn't have enough time to think about who to place my vote on. To answer this question: I didn't say anything about 'stating'... I said 'seems to have' (OK, fine, quote below) A couple of your posts just read to me that you had a strong village read on me... Last example first (since I have Day four up in another window) - you basically gave me a free pass on my temporary DoS vote. For some reason I can't find the post anymore, but you had one where you posed question to everyone...mine was a bit of a softball...something about "what other oddities have you seen in the voting" (if someone can find the quote, please let me know...I just scrolled through the entire thread and can't seem to find it...hopefully I'm not going crazy and dreaming about SE posts) Not the best evidence, but felt very, "Oh, Rath is village"-toned to me... (Here I am arguing against myself...great strategy...) Anyway, a couple of random notes on this round of voting: Of the 4 people who voted on randuir yesterday, 2 are dead and the other two swapped to Bort... 13 abstentions (including mine...sorry) is the most we've had so far... I still don't get the dagger usage...unless Bort had a dagger and tried to use it but targetted the wrong player? Or Fifth used it at some point? Unsure there... Honestly, at this point, given how difficult it's been to stick the elim label on anyone, I wouldn't be surprised if several elims are just chilling in the background letting the rest of us talk ourselves in circles and vote each other out of the game. Highest abstention numbers (of people who are still in the game as the original character): 4 abstentions (no votes) Walin 3 abstentions HH Jondesu Bugsy Val MarkIV I know that RL gets in the way sometimes...I'm just trying to throw out thoughts that no one has really talked about yet.
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Dalinar brings up a good point... I'm going to pull my vote off Fifth for now. As I mentioned earlier, I should be around for the hour leading up to the end of the day, but I just wanted to check in and see what people had since my last meeting got out a bit early.
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So, we've reached the point at which other people are hopping on the Fifth bandwagon...which is actually slightly frightening for me. At this point in the game, we have so many abstentions in voting (fully half of the current 'active' players have at least 2 abstentions) that it's been very easy for elims to hide in the shadows. The fact that everyone has had to primarily restrict their analysis to people who have been active has, I'm sure, resulted in some bad reads on various people. With that, here are some of the thoughts that have come across my brains recently: randuir seems to have a very strong read of village on me based on a couple of his posts...my biggest concern here is that it could be TOO strong and it could be designed to build trust from me so that I'll come in and help defend against any lynch attempt later on (especially since that was close last day cycle) Fifth Scholar and Mr Doctor are still the two most suspicious D1 voters to me doc12 has voted twice...for Araris and for Devotary...with an abstention during the Elenion vote in between. That seems a bit over-the-top elim behavior, but still seems sketchy. After reading back through CadCom's posts, assuming the lynch wasn't just random, randuir and Fifth Scholar should be looked at a bit closer. Probably the biggest struggle I'm having right now in analyzing people is that we don't have a large enough number of people throwing their suspicions out there for me to really trust the mob. Right now, most of the lynches and votes have been fairly low numbers (5/3/4 votes have been sufficient for lynching so far). At this rate, it will be really easy for the elims to continue to affect the vote without putting very much at risk. That being said, I'm going to stick to my guns and vote for Fifth. I've become significantly less confident in this vote in the past (earth, not cycle) day or two, but it's still one of my top options. I have several meetings today, but should be able to hop back in for the last hour of the cycle to see if anyone has anything convincing enough for me to change my vote. Also, Not sure how to take this...haha. "of various sorts" could be the forum version of "Bless your heart"...but I appreciate getting noticed.
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So, here's my question right now... Elim night kills: Night 1 - Roadwalker - Miracle Max Claim Night 2 - Elbereth - Miracle Max Claim Night 3 - CadCom...why CadCom? Potential reasons off the top of my head: Made a deal with Max to revive a confirmed elim - this would be interesting...seems like Max wouldn't be too interested in helping out the elims at this point though. My thought: Inconceivable! RNG - possible...seems like an effective way of deciding on night elims...but after the first two, it seems likely that the elims aren't doing that. My thought: Conceivable...but unlikely They wanted to get rid of a villager who actually was doing consistent (good?) analysis to help reduce the amount of information we have - My thought: Conceivable...UNLESS CadCom said SOMETHING that tickled someone wrong - My thought: Conceivable Misdirection...CadCom said SOMETHING that they thought was hilariously wrong but they wanted to draw attention to it. My thought: Conceivable... CadCom actually had the super secret role of The Sicilian whose win condition is to cause widespread panic and confusion and generally snuff out any fun people are having - My thought: Inconceivable! There are far too many Conceivables on that list... At this point, though, I'm going to try to look back through CadCom's posts to see what points are brought up and how conceivable they are... Edit: I guess I didn't really phrase a question there...but I think my thoughts are coherent enough that you get the picture.
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Realized I didn't respond to Bugsy's question: What're your thoughts on this now? -Bugsy Honestly, not much more here... HH has been relatively inactive for the past couple cycles. The analysis still holds weight, but there's not really been anything to back it up since then... Now, HH being relatively quiet since then COULD be due to trying to take some heat off for sure. If I had to take a read on HH, I'd read slight elim...but it's definitely more neutral still.
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The latest comment on Eternum was mostly musing... On a purely voting standpoint, and you've probably noted it yourself, you and doc12 standout for multiple votes on (what are now) confirmed villagers. We've had four people abstain for all three votes so far: Walin Elephant Earwax Coop772 Rebecca Most of that seems to be due to relative inactivity, but it's always a decent strategy to not draw attention to yourself in games like these. Other mildly interesting commentary on votes: Hemalurgic Headshot was part of the initial lynch on Araris...but has abstained since then. Back to doc12 - votes on Araris and DoS (hopefully you're OK with that abbreviation) with an abstention in between...bad luck or tell? Val had the DoS vote D1 (due to a dislike of character name), but has abstained since... Seems likely inactivity-related? I still don't think we've gotten an explanation from anyone as to why they used a dagger on Araris' vote D1... I GUESS it could have been Roadwalker (since he was confirmed to be Pirate with Dagger) but that would make approximately -7 sense... Jondesu seemed to be playing a fairly patient game until firing at doc12 this last round...Same with Dalinar and the vote on randuir. MarkIV has essentially abstained with the joke vote on Walin for being at the top of the list being the only vote so far. (Seems to be a carryover from last LG) I'm sure I could find some other random pieces of information to look at if it weren't past the end of my lunch break.
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Well, Eternum continues to be in the place at the time...voted for all three lynches.
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Well Devotary, I wasn't planning on keeping the vote there...and you claiming a role definitely wasn't what I was hoping for. I'm going back to my old trust vote on Fifth unless something comes up in the last 45 minutes here.
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Voting on you today and solidifying a lynch on day 1 are completely different given the fact that we actually have a little information today... As I said, though, I'm not 100% set on that vote. Just seems the best option for now.
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I'll join the Devotary band-wagon for now... I still have other suspicions that I'm not sold on, but between Randuir and Devotary, I'm definitely leaning that way. I'll be lurking the rest of the day, so that still may not be my final vote.
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Randuir did mention being mostly afk through tomorrow...doesn't make your suspicion any less valid, but worth noting.
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Unrelated to any game strategy...every time I read "xxx is totally dead" I laugh at the valley-girl sound of it.
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Mr Doctor, I'm still not 100% convinced based on just your merits: Araris and Elenion I thought had very similar productive activity up to the point you made that post...the main difference is that Elenion had much more RP. Additionally, I can understand how you would think that quote was taken out of context...but it really isn't. It's a summary of your entire post. Next, Fifth coming to defend you isn't exactly a point in your favor at this point either...but I'm starting to lean more neutral there. Someone made the argument that an elim wouldn't gain anything out of solidifying the vote on Araris day one when the next-highest vote-getter was 2 at that point seems fair...but I also don't see any situation a villager would gain something out of that move. If Araris had instead been a pirate with dagger, that 4 could have changed to 3 pretty easily...and moved a third to someone else, so the 5th vote was still pretty damning. The MAIN reason I'm willing to retract my vote for now is the fact that Elenion tried to draw attention to you and HH on day 2. Although I still somewhat agree with that analysis (you can't lie ALL the time when you're on the elim side) I'm willing to hold back for now.
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Well, with Elenion now out as Elim, this quote seems a bit more suspicious: That was Mr Doctor's rationale on voting Araris Day 1...
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Quick note before I start looking at work TOO much - Eternum is the only person to vote for both lynchees.
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True... But someone used a dagger to change Araris' vote over to Roadwalker...
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Yeah, Edited...I think you're correct. I guess just clarification as to whether the 2-vote minimum is with regards to number of total people voting? Or number of people voting on an individual? (Unless that's supposed to be obvious)
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I don't think multiple people would die... Edit: Or, I guess only half the people would die?
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Ahhh, not quite what I assumed. That makes more sense. I was assuming 'Analysis' or 'Insight' were going to be one of the words. As for my suspicions, at this point I would say my analysis is a bit sophomoric. There's really only so much you can gather in the first cycle or two regarding anyone's allegiance, regardless of what they say in a thread. I'm relatively certain that the majority of the people here are skilled enough in this game that they can manage a considerable amount of deceit via what, in this situation, is a text-based social deduction game. Between two different games, I could legitimately just copy/pasta certain responses and if everything is taken at face value, it would appear my allegiances between the two games would be the same. So, I don't think it would be very helpful if I attempt to break down what people say, especially since I'm not nearly as familiar with everyone else as most of you are with each other. I have read through all of the analysis others have written and between that and some general feelings I have, here are some of my thoughts (in a rather random order) of some people who have been reasonably active: Fifth: Obviously I'm currently voting for him. This is a situation where actions speak louder than words. The recent comment regarding these games being rather bloodthirsty at the start does have be second-guessing this vote a bit, but I'm not sure why anyone would want to put the literary nail in someone's coffin like was done. My thoughts are that at least one, likely 2 or 3, of the people who voted for Araris on day one is bound to be elim. Elenion: CadCom's analysis is about where my thought process was going at the time. Always nice when someone else can write everything out so I don't have to. randuir: You're taking the approach I often do in live games (and try to do consistently) of just providing consistent analysis for as long as possible before actually trying to take a side. I'm sure it's by design so that you can continue to utilize the strategy in all games, regardless of whether village or elim, but I have little to no read on you. CadCom: Your analysis is so far a bit too close to mine for comfort. I dread the idea of you being an elim since I'm sure that will shine a bad light on me so I'm HOPING that you turn out to be village...but, you can hope in one hand and...well, you know the saying (either that or I just dated myself as much older than the majority of the people here). The one thing I'm unsure of...not sure where you're seeing this 'evidence' that Val is providing... Everything mentioned was readily-available information at this point (other than mindset). Dalinar: Started a PM with Dalinar last "night"...not getting a read through there...too few posts here to provide much insight either. Also didn't answer my question (via PM) of how the Stormfather was doing. HH: Elenion's initial analysis on the day 1 lynching had me leaning elim here as well... I still can't discount the analysis, but as Elenion's allegiance falls into question, it's also time to look for counter-evidence. Elbereth: At this point I'm willing to take the Max claim at face value. Bugsy: The difference in tone from day 1 to day 2 is interesting. Seems like once Araris was out of the game, Bugsy was able to take a step back and become a bit more calm. Eternum: Action-based analysis has the negative strike of voting for Araris...there's no way all 5 votes were elim though...that would be extremely sloppy. doc12: Nothing much...just the bad vote. MrDoctor: Lots of analysis (by him, not on him)...bad vote... Steeldancer: Clearly the GM Once the next cycle runs its course, I feel like we'll have a lot more information (and obviously fewer players to analyze). At this point, though, as with most others in the game, I have mostly neutral reads.
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I'm fairly certain I understand the terms in context, but could you define AI and NAI (assumed to be Not AI)?
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Unless I missed a removal...you missed the vote on HH from Elenion.
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+1 for shorter night
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Ahh, I just re-read the post to start the day and realized that it states who was killed in which manner. I did not notice that at first. So the information I was looking for already exists. I was still skeptical of your argument without that piece of information.
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From the initial post for the game: I took that to mean that the Prince's Men have a doc like those that have existed in other games of SE, so they would already know who is bad or not bad. So, now that Wesley is just a normal villager (no more night kill/PM with Buttercup), he or she wouldn't be painting any additional target on his/her back and would only be providing additional information. Additionally, like any other information that we have to work with, it's all up to how much you believe the person who states it.
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I'll (try to) be brief...but most of my employees will probably say that's not really possible: My initial read on day one is very similar to Elenion's...However, I know that many of you are experienced enough to not give away Elim alignment on day one...HOWEVER, I know that many of your are experienced enough to not just get caught up in group think and lynch someone day one due to their actions in previous games...HOWEVER, Occam's Razor would state that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one and what appears to be a fairly-well-coordinated attack on day one is more likely to be due to there actually being coordination in the attack than it just being random chance...HOWEVER, the people on the Elim side probably know the basics behind Occam's Razor and would hope to use that against anyone who might try using logic to determine who is on which side...HOWEVER, I know that you know that I might know to think about using logic so I should know to think about using more than just logic... I'M JUST GETTING STARTED!! (Yes, if you're a purist for quotes, that's a horrible attempt at channeling the Sicilian) I wonder what people are thinking Were 5 people really out drinking And choosing to lynch the princess Regardless of their mental presence Would imply to me That they could see Something about about her alliance I'll vote Fifth for now...might change it later, but changing to solidify the vote on Araris seems highly suspicious to me. Edit: Hey, that was actually kind of brief. Good job me! Second Edit: Now that the Princess is dead, if it was Wesley who killed the second person last night, it would be useful to know who was killed - you're now just a villager, so that was your last special action...not like you can draw any additional attention to yourself.
