Hemalurgic Headshot

Okay then. Well, I'm not sure if Straw is a good lynch candidate now. I was kind of trying to save my own skin before, but now that idea is out the window. I agree with Rand that this is rather suspicious behavior from Drought, and Arinian has had a similar activity pattern. Drought didn't even vote at all D2, however, which is interesting, because I would assume that the Elims would want to make use of their voting power. Of the two, I'm more suspicious of Arinian.

Well, I have suggestion. We lynch Straw, and based on his alignment, we can assess me, since you believe we have some sort of connection. @Elbereth The thing that made me change my mind was how Pyro still stuck with being Survival. If we go back with Pyro's narrative of being Survival, which he has maintained since D1, his actions stick with it pretty solidly. It is a bit harder to assess if he had been Hoid or Khriss, because of the lack of information I/we have on his actions, but technically there they could have fit into that scenario too, though more precariously as time went on. I'm second guessing myself here, because Pyro seems genuine, yet my own analysis points otherwise. I will look back at the Straw lynch argument last Day, but in accordance with my suggestion to Stick, Straw.

Pyro is probably Survival. I've thought about it quite a bit, and it makes more sense than Hoid. Khrissala, perhaps more likely, but the most possible of these options is Survival. And I also agree with Fifth, that it might be a little better to focus on someone else than try to go for Pyro again.

You are stating the correct events, but with the wrong reasons. Okay. Your honor prevents you from undercutting someone with ulterior motives. I respect that.

I don't look very willing to give my thoughts? Exactly what are you referring to? The reason why I haven't given very thorough analysis before is because I didn't have any analysis to give. However, I have put in the effort now, and have actually read the rules through and through. You mentioned you want Survival. Why don't you vote on Pyro then? That doesn't make any sense.

I do understand what you are saying, that Fusing Shards would be unprofitable, but by handling and returning Shards, Hoid would learn who had what Shard, and could plan accordingly. As for information, I see that if Pyro were indeed Hoid, or Khriss, then their Elim teammate would be very careful with their vote, in such a tenuous lynch such as currently. We could possibly discern an Elim ally from the vote patterns, and on top of that we would know that Pyro is either Hoid or Khriss, which is incredibly beneficial for the village.

Here is my awaited analysis: I had a startling thought, that @Droughtbringer also brought up earlier. Pyro might not be Survival. @MonsterMetroid also makes some very good points. Though Pyro did state Survival's win-con, it was probably the easiest of all of the Shards' win-cons to guess, due to Survival's nature. He does this before he reveals himself. Metroid then accuses Pyro of being Khriss. However, I think that Pyro is Hoid. One key point: Pyro suggests, using the premise of Survival, that current Shardholders pass their shards to him in order for them to keep their village win-con. He then claims that he will pass them back the next cycle. This catches my attention, because this aligns more with Hoid's win condition than Kriss's. By luring other players into passing him Shards, he then can take the opportunity to Fuse them together. Additionally, being Hoid appears like holding a Shard. Hoid is immune to conversion and investment by Shards, and has charges of investiture from every Shard, and could burn them if needed to appear like Survival. And why would the real Survival counterclaim, like @Elbereth said, when this provides a convenient distraction? @_Stick_ also makes some good points and has a nice collection of Pyro's posts in an earlier post this cycle. Piecing together a charade of this magnitude might seem impressive for a new player, but Pyro has clearly been reading past games, and I wouldn't put it past him to think up something like this. I believe that lynching Pyro provides a good basis for information, something we did not get last cycle. As Rand says, he lives or he dies, and if he lives, then we can press more suspicion. I feel this is a good course take: Pyro.

@Elbereth I will do so, but currently I’m not in a position where I can pull together notes on most of the players. I’ll be able to fulfill your request after I get back from school, but that will be 8 hours or so. I understand that’s not ideal, I’m sorry. And no, this is not a stalling tactic.

I see that you are still set on seeing me die. However, I had already answered most of your argument previously. I didn't play D1 well. Yes, my posts were not helpful and I was generally a hypocrite. I confess to that. Is that basis to lynch someone on? Unfortunately, I feel like you are playing as you would if you were village. Though Pyro did bring up the possibility that you are a convert, which is definitely plausible, I will agree with Rand right now that you are probably not a convert. That's all I have for now.

I wasn't referring to my plans. It just seemed to me that the players as a whole had put a lot of effort into trying to plot out Shard actions and predict outcomes. I wanted to point out that it might be more complicated than previously thought. I haven't even gotten a PM yet, but then again, PMs are a bit more difficult to make this game. Does this satisfy your curiosity?

Well, you could be called back from the Cognitive Realm if Ambition or Endowment sees fit. If by chance you have time later in the game. I trust that you actually do have responsibilities, and those should be your priority. No lynch. Fifth Scholar.

I believe that one of the points that you are concerned about is my miscalculation of the ability of the village to place kills. I have not looked at the rules very well. Sorry. That point was corrected shortly after, and I went back and realized my mistake. So I am a hypocrite. You have hit the idiomatic nail on the head. You have successfully broken down everything I have posted to its prime components and have truly revealed the amount of effort that I have commited to this game, which is close to none. You expected me to know the previous Elim:Village ratios. I do not. I am being completely frank here. Though I will not deny everything you have said, I feel that rallying a late bandwagon against me is rather excessive. And ninja'd by Pyro, who has brought up some very solid points on how you are suspicious, which I applaud him for putting forth meaningful analysis. I would like you, Fifth, and you too, Devotary, to reconsider. As for now, I will vote No Lynch.

Very interesting. There is a possibility that all of the careful planning and analysis on the affects of the three released Shards could go out the window. But will these new end game conditions benefit the village or the Elims?

^Words that strike fear in the hearts of my enemies.

@Fifth Scholar There aren't any other things on which I'm feeling suspicious about you, I just wanted to express my agreement with what had been previously said concerning your behavior. You aren't seeming particularly suspicious to me besides that, but it was something to note.

Ah, YoungPyro. If you weren't a new player, I wouldn't be so reluctant to push suspicions of you. But truthfully, your posts have given me a bad gut read. You have posted a LOT, but not very much was necessarily relevant. You either repeat a previously stated opinion, in a brief sentence or two, or make a statement, equally brief. Also, that spiel on page three? What purpose did that have? Though probably harmless, it looks a little strange. 5th is also suspicious, as everyone above has stated, for above-average interest in the release of Odium. Though his point that he is most likely not Odium is sound, it does not ignore the possibilities that he could be distracting us to protect his own interests.

Well, being NAI is better than being Elim, correct? That stands on its own. Thank you. It completely slipped my mind.

I was mainly phrasing it as a rhetorical question. I don't have many other answers for you, because, yes, without Odium or Ruin the lynch is the last option for village kills. I didn't know that they only had two conversions. I had assumed they would want to act early so they could have more options and have a teammate early on.

Looks like you'll just need to find the current Vessel and... take it off their hands? And what do you think about the lynch? Statistically, as always, there is a very high chance of hitting a villager. At the most, there are only four Elims, and there are three Vessels. Its highly unlikely we'll hit an Elim, and hitting a Vessel will just transfer the Shard to someone else, possibly an Elim. This is a question of pros and cons. Do we want to risk a village death (hopefully harmless), or a Vessel death (with the dangerous possibility of falling into enemy hands) for the chance of killing an Elim? And of those four Elims, there's a 50/50 chance of hitting Hoid or Krissala.

Why those three? It just sounds like a terrible, terrible, awesome, terrible recipe for disaster. Odium and Ruin will most likely begin causing havoc. Autonomy has some very good abilities for the village. I'm really just repeating what has been said before by Mage and Straw. And I'd find it hilarious if Steeldancer got his wish. And slightly frightening. ---- And now it's the D1 lynch! Yet again, it is do, or do not. I'd suppose that Hoid and Krissala have taken advantage of their conversion ability and there are more Elims now than were before. Additionally, there are three Vessels running around. Assuming four total Elims and three Vessels, there is a roughly 1/3 chance that we will lynch someone special. Lynching a Vessel wouldn't be as fun though, because then the Shard would just get passed to someone else, maybe even an Elim, and it would be more difficult to get it back into containment. Ant more thoughts on D1 lynch?

I don't think anything really changes... but I'm slightly confused. Jiamo is confused as well, because he could have sworn that his scarf was red, not blue.

The amount of investiture stolen requisite to release a Shard is not specified, thus, I'm not sure how we should plan investiture-borrowing. I have a suspicion that different Shards might require different amounts of simultaneous stole investiture to be released, or that the amount changes on the ratio of Elims-Villagers. Additionally, there is no indicator of what the current amount necessary is. That value is somewhat crucial to any plan, because it determines the difficulty of releasing a Shard tonight. If we consider that different Shards require different amounts, the only logical trend to this is that Shards with a greater desire to be free, my example: Autonomy, will require less simultaneous weakening of their protective field for them to escape. Survival, I suppose, has a very low requirement, hence already being free. The other possibility I suggested, Elim-Villager ratio, has two options for the current standing. One, it is quite easy to break a Shard free, because it gives the two conversion factions more wiggle room to start their win-cons, or two, it is quite difficult to break a Shard free, on the basis that the most players possible are alive at the moment, and thus have the possibility to break a Shard out by sheer numbers. There is of course, a terrible and trolly possibility, and that is "X" refers to the Roman numeral X, which stands for 10. Which provides a baseline for all Shards, all the time.

Hmmm... rug merchants... no fee. No fee? Jiamo's ears perked up. "Blue, you say? Tempting indeed. My... friend, yes, you have yourself a deal." Jiamo extended his hand to the merchant. The man's eyes shone as he firmly shook Jiamo's hand. "Thank you, thank you so much, sir. I'll have the gloves to you as soon as possible. I only need the payment..." he looked at Jiamo expectantly. Jiamo patted down his cloak. No, not there. He check his trousers. No money purse there. Hints of panic began to seep in. Perhaps he had forgotten it? Revelation struck and he snapped his fingers. His headscarf! He unwrapped it and reached into one of its folds. He withdrew a thick wallet. Quality leather, three special compartments for holding any sort of currency the average worldhopper might require. He sifted through his spheres and pulled out eleven broams and a few other spheres that added up to the total. He dropped them in the merchant's awaiting hand. "And for your offer at the tavern, I accept gladly." Better than reorganizing my closet all evening... he thought. He did that too often. "Yes, of course I will be there. Thank you." Jiamo gave a brief smile and entered the Labs.

Jiamo had nearly returned to his dorm when behind him came the merchant, running with great enthusiasm. Obviously having exerted himself, the salesman collapsed on the ground, panting. Perhaps he needed to exercise more... but the private affairs of others weren't his concern. "--but I think you indignant reaction to my pitch was a bluff to get me to lower my price," the merchant was saying. Jiamo sputtered. A bluff? Those gloves were horrendous enough to burn the eyes as red as a shade's. The merchant was still talking, spewing tidbits about how the gloves contained bits of Odium... "I can even change the pink color if it doesn't match your preferences." Jiamo's eyes widened. Change that thrice-cursed color? Now the item was even within the realm of possibility. But before Jiamo replied, another thought crossed his mind. The merchant had the ability to change the color the entire time? Yet had chosen not to? Certainly, thought Jiamo, this man was colorblind. However, he was tempted. And the man was certainly desperate, all but grovelling at his feet to make the deal. He considered his options... "I shall let your transgression slide," Jiamo declared. "Yet... you must be joking. Fifteen broams? Certainly you don't know the value of clothing. Sure, you might have been able to fool a layman with your ploy, to convince him that the gloves were merely tools to use. Nonsense! Its appearance has importance too. Had they been of better make, quality fabric," --here Jiamo gagged-- "and a better color, I would have been more than willing to pay full price. But fifteen for this? and an extra sum for recoloring?! You ask too much. That is all." He paused, allowing the merchant to pull another argument out of his pants.

Jiamo was hailed from across the plaza. The man from whence the sound had come was seated behind a rack of horrendously assorted merchandise. There was neither rhyme nor reason to the organization of the booth, and every item demanded an exorbitant sum, my colors! But none of this bothered Jiamo more than the salesman's erroneous identification of the color of his headscarf. "EXCUSE ME?!" Jiamo hollered across to the man. He began to gesture wildly at his head. "This is not 'yellow-green', my good fellow. No sir, if your eyes actually could see, this piece of exotic fabric, acquired in Taldain only after quite a bout of haggling, is VERMILION!" EXAMPLE. Jiamo whipped out a crimson scarf from his pocket and tied it around his waist, to signify his immense anger. He decided to get closer to the salesman, that perhaps he could see that he was in the wrong and that it was a brilliant color. However, upon approaching, he noticed the particular item the man had been advertising. "What... is... that..." Jiamo pointed at the pair of gloves, as horrendously pink as a rash. They matched nothing in his wardrobe. He could not think of a single combination that would complement them. And the style was appalling as well. Besides the terrible color, the leather gloves had a mesh veil over the palm and a string of beads on the back, yet the mesh had dyed differently than the leather, so it was two shades a different color! And the beads were highly impractical. Though Jiamo could see their appeal, they served no use on this item. Dross. The salesman looked expectantly up at Jiamo. He scoffed and turned away. There was nothing useful at that vendor at all. All eyes were on him as he strode off, and it took him a second to notice. Quite a spectacle he had made. Jiamo felt the blood rush to his face and mentally scolded himself for making such a scene. Though it was necessary to educate the unenlightened, everyone must now think him a buffoon! He sulked away.