Okay, so I decided I should probably do a reread of the thread and give my thoughts on everything that’s happened so far.
D1:
So, the first time Bard, one of the people who’s got the most suspicion on them, posted, he basically just said, “hey, what if we just ignore the Krell and let the gunners handle this?” but in RP. I’m gonna chalk that up to him maybe misunderstanding how much of a threat the Krell are, but that could go either way. Either that’s elim!Bard trying to make themselves sound village, or that’s village!Bard being genuine in trying to find a way to keep the elims from killing everyone. I can’t quite tell which one I’m leaning more towards yet.
Drake responds, saying he’s down for the idea. Though, he mentions that the elims might have the firepower to handle the Krell on our own. Fairly NAI, in my opinion.
Why did Fura vote on Ark first?
Elandera does a random vote, votes CadCom (who becomes Lumgol)
Stick says they’re fine with keeping a no lynch (before the rule change). That’s an odd stance, to me, as a villager, but oh well
Sart says he isn’t fine with no lynch, votes CadCom
So, in a quick series of votes, DA votes Ark, then says that CadCom had car troubles, which leads to Elandera switching their vote to Stick because they wanted a no lynch. This could be an attempt by elim!Elandera to prove they want to lynch people, which is generally a good idea for the village, while also getting a villager lynched. Also, Elandera said that apparently Stick had posted enough so that it might’ve given us more info if we lynched her? Stick had just posted twice, which is about as much as Elandera had before this post, but there were people who had been posting far more than either of them (DA and Drake). By their own logic, one of those two or Elandera should’ve been lynched instead of Stick.
After DA calls out Elandera and votes on them, Elandera responds with a post that basically amounts to a whole lot of NAI
DA asked them again to respond about how Stick has posted less than Elandera, but again no response.
N1:
There’s a whole lot of posts that mean basically nothing at first, then Fura asks for people to PM them, though they won’t be reaching out to anyone. Maybe they were too busy in the elim doc to start making tons of PMs, but hoped people would PM them for information they could give the elims?
DA asks for everyone to coordinate with him. Here’s the interesting part. I want to see how everyone reacts to this
Through tons of RP dialogue, Drake basically says that we should focus on teaming up individually instead of coordinating attacks in the thread. He hasn’t said this at this point in the game, but I’d like to point out that a major reason he’s been advocating this plan throughout the game is that he thinks it’ll make it easy to root out the elims, which will scare them from helping the villagers. Which...really wouldn’t have mattered to the villagers earlier on in the game. Like, if the elims can’t get their kill in because they have to cooperate with the village in order to not get ousted as elims, then that ultimately helps everyone because we are able to force the elims to fight the Krell. I’m firmly back in the “suspicious of Drake” camp again.
He again talks a little bit about what he thinks we should do instead of letting everyone know what ship they’re flying. This time he mentions that, through PM chains, we should be able to catch anyone who’s lying about what ship their in and stuff. Which, would work if there were plenty of people active and participating in the PMs. Which is not the case, as far as I’m aware. The only PMs I’ve received were because I sent them a PM in the first place. One of them is dead (DA) and I don’t really trust the other person (Drake).
Bard initially argued in favor of keeping things in PM chains, but kinda argued himself into agreeing with making ship stuff public. This could be elim!Bard trying to make himself seem more village, but I’ve been leaning towards a Joe-Drake-Elandera team so far. (Little aside, these three have hardly interacted so far, and the only time Drake and Elandera have interacted at this point was to work on some plans of attack)
Xino’s first post...reveals literally nothing
As did their second post
So, Elandera asked Steel about how many pilots Gunners can shoot per night. I feel like elim!Elandera easily could’ve asked that question, say, in the elim doc, though.
Ark responds to that post, saying they thought that Gunners could shoot as many pilots as there are Gunners. That could be just a villager reacting that way, or it could be another elim saying that to hide the fact that they found out the same way elim!Elandera did, through the elim doc. I think it’s the former, mostly because I think there were probably only 3 elims to start, and I really think Drake is far more likely to be elim than Ark.
Devotary called out Drake for assuming that everyone claiming their ships would make it easy to root out the elims, since he’d assumed the elims were only Gunners. Then, Devotary gets killed this night…hmm….
Xino and Joe commit to firing at J. Could be two elims publicly claiming a ship to be destroyed as if they were both pilots, while one of them uses a turret to take down that ship and the other uses the elim kill. I don’t think that’s likely, though if we lynch Drake and Elandera and they’re both elims, I think Xino should be our next lynch.
D2:
Elandera is the first to comment, saying that the reason Devotary was killed doesn’t seem obvious. In hindsight, I think it was pretty obvious, since she was the first to catch on that claiming a ship doesn’t hard clear anyone since Gunners can request ships. This could possibly be elim!Elandera trying to hide the fact that she does know the reason why the elims killed Devotary.
Poor Sart, he was wrong about Stick and ended up getting lynched too. I need to figure out which of the next few votes on Stick could be an elim.
Ark was next to vote on Stick, though they say that could change
Bard votes on Fura because of perceived low activity. I think I remember Fura being pretty active D1, though there were considerably less posts from them N1. A little weird, though I could chalk that up to Bard remembering their lowered activity from N1 more than their D1 activity.
Xino commented about DA’s annoyance at Sart appearing genuine, though DA could be a good actor if he’s elim (which he’s not). The real kicker is that Xino says that inactivity is a great tool for elims to use. Xino’s been pretty inactive (I’m actually surprised that there have been as many Xino posts as I’ve seen so far), so it’d be pretty funny if Xino was elim.
Elandera says they’re not a fan of the Stick lynch. Possibly as a way to gain trust once Stick’s been lynched? I don’t think Elandera’s voted yet, and they easily could’ve started another lynch if they really didn’t like the Stick one so much.
Ugh, I was so wrong about Sart. Sorry, Sart! Also, in hindsight, I don’t know why I trusted Drake so much in the early game. Looking back on it, he looks so suspicious
Ark says they’re not joining the Stick lynch because they can’t really do any analysis of their own...but they voted on Stick anyway? That doesn’t make any sense to me. Ark is on my maybe list now, though I don’t think he’s as likely to be an elim as Drake or Elandera
Stick tried to save herself by voting on Bard, let’s see what Bard said….
Okay, a lot happens in this Elandera post. First, they again say they don’t like the Stick lynch. They give a few thoughts on some inactives (most of who are alive still), then they again say that they don’t see any reason why the elims could’ve wanted to kill Devotary. Maybe I’m just reading way too much into Devotary predicting that the gunners could use ships, and the fact that Elandera keeps ignoring that, but I definitely think Elandera is elim. They finally end up voting on Walin because...they could’ve been around to ask who to target? That makes even less sense than some other stuff Elandera has posted before.
There was a series of votes by mostly people that ended up being village which ended up with Bard having one more vote than Sart and Stick, who were tied at 2 votes...and then Drake decides to vote on Joe of all people? Joe had barely posted at all, though apparently he’d been on the thread a lot. I know Joe turned out to be an elim, but that behavior isn’t really exclusive to elims. Heck, that’s what I’ve been doing for most of this game. Anyway, Joe was never really in danger of getting lynched, so I think this could definitely be elim!Drake trying to distance himself from his teammate Joe.
Next, Maill decides to vote on Stick mostly for meta reasons. I’m having a really time trying to get a read on Maill, though maybe that’s because he’s an elim trying to hide low. I find that unlikely, but if either Drake or Elandera turn out to be village, it’d probably be best to try and put Maill up for lynch, along with Xino
Hmm...Drake was the key turning point for making the Stick lynch look viable again. Maybe Bard could elim, though I haven’t been getting any elim vibes from him.
Also, apparently Bard thought he could take out an entire Krell ship on his own. Maybe he’s an ace, so he thought he could get his abilities sorted out somehow to take down a Krell? I dunno why, but I really just don’t think Bard is an elim, but that claim is just so fishy...I think I’ve been tunneling too much on Drake and Elandera. I think Elandera is more likely to be the elim of those two, but I still really think Drake is an elim….
Elandera officially puts the lynch in favor of Stick, resulting in her being lynched…if Bard is village, I’m not sure why elim!Elandera would do this...maybe to make themself look sloppy, because who would so obviously move a lynch towards a villager like that as an elim?
N2:
A whole lot of not much important at the beginning, mainly interactions between tons of now-dead villagers, but then Elandera does something interesting...she says that the persistent votes on Stick at the end were odd and the reasons for voting on Stick were flimsy at best. I don’t think an elim would mess up like that that badly by saying the Stick votes were flimsy when they were literally the person who caused Stick to get lynched in the first place. Now I have to rethink whether I think Elandera is an elim….
Okay, I forgot about Bard’s explanation of his claim of how he could take a ship down on his own. I totally did the same thing, mixing up the health and destructors when I was piloting a Largo earlier. I’m nowhere near done yet, but I think it’s likely that Bard has been set up as a scapegoat for the elims. It’s pretty easy to claim that the survivor of a last minute lynch change like what happened D2 was because of an elim team trying to save their teammate. When Bard is lynched and turns out to be village, it’ll make it seem like the lynch of Sart was just an unfortunate accident, basically clearing the players that controlled the lynch at that point. (Drake and Elandera-without them the Stick lynch wouldn’t have happened). I think that’s further supported by the fact that, even though Bard thought he was hard cleared and thought the elims would kill him, he still hasn’t been killed. That could be a specific strategy chosen by the elims to put more suspicion onto him.
Okay, here’s my analysis of Bard’s analysis. First, let’s see what predictions they got right. They pegged Snipexe as neutral, CadCom/Lumgol as slight elim (so wrong, but Bard’s reasoning makes sense), Sart as elim (also wrong), trusted DA, neutral on Walin, and neutral on Joe. So, not very good predictions overall, but I’d say they were good predictions based on the information in the thread alone.
I don’t think Fura is the squad leader, though their post asking the squad leader to post their findings could be their explanation for why they do so later.
I definitely think I was right that there’d be two elims who voted on Stick, though I think I got the distribution of votes wrong. I think both Drake and Elandera are elims.
Drake admits he pockets people. That’s fairly NAI.
Okay, that’s it for now. I need to go get ready to pick my room for college, so I’ll get back to this later.
EDIT: Just reread the stuff in this thread...forgot that Maill was pretty suspicious. I've never had an elim read on Fura, so I'm pretty sure I can trust them. I think Elandera will probably end up being lynched despite Maill being the better lynch for today, so I'm not gonna vote on her. I'm gonna vote on Mailliw.
