DeTess
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Everything posted by DeTess
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Okay, I'm caught up, more or less (I haven't done a full analysis style reading yet, but I more or less know what everyone has said now). yes, I do understand now how that comment would indeed be seen as aimed at all of you. I'd written it up as explaining why I thought lynching Joe specifically would be a good idea at the time, and hadn't had any intention of expanding it to justify lynches on the rest of you unless I was given a particularly good reason to do so. Regarding the possibility of the comment actually being an elim-pitch, I'd say this would have been a reasonable suspicion, if Joe was the only Neutral that had revealed himself. However, at that point you'd already announced yourself as well, and I believe STINK had claimed neutral by that point, so why would elim!randuir take the risk of putting this in the thread, when a single group PM would have gotten the same info across? If elim!randuir thought you where faking the neutral role-claim, it could have even been dressed up in such a way as to appear to be the worry of a villager ("what would you do if this situation occured..."). I'll be honest, I'd never even gotten around to considering that it was just an attempt to make contact with the elims to be able to actually be properly neutral. This isn't a particularly good excuse, but it is the truth. If I had gotten around to considering it, I would have PM'd Joe first to get a better understanding of his intentions. This is probably not the answer you wanted to hear, but it is hard to come up with arguments for my stance when I overlooked something like this. So, I guess, apologies to Joe for jumping the gun and not properly considering the options. TL;DR: some mistakes where made. Mostly by me. Some other things I wanted to mention: One comment from the other thread was on my suggestion that a thug consider letting himself being taken out by the lynch under specific circumstances. If I had been a thug, then I would have seriously considering revoking my self-protection during the day-cycle, because living through the hit could very easily have resulted in another big lynch attempt against me next cycle, which would have just ended up fully wasting two cycles worth of lynches (this is not a role-claim btw. (or is it )). One last thing I'd like to say right now is a thanks to @Amanuensis. He's been mostly right about my motivations and reasons for doing what I did, and I suspect without his endorsement I probably would have been lynched. If people do decide to buy into Wilson's 'major tin-foil', I suggest hitting me, not Aman.
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Okay, I'm going to the thread right now, but you people managed to add 10 pages while I was asleep+busy with an exam. There's a couple of things I'd like to comment on right now (apologies if this has been brought up later in the thread). First of all, several people are accusing me of 'alienating' the neutrals. The thing is, I don't consider a neutral running around asking for an elim to contact him so that they can work together a neutral, exactly. Maybe Joe cleared all of that up at some point, but when I made my vote two people had indicated that they'd gotten PM's indicating Joe wanted to work with the elims, and there wasn't much indication he was doing the same in the other direction (apart from his earlier post in the thread calling for all neutrals to aid the village, which seemed to just be misdirection at that point). If nothing else, the votes will have reminded the neutrals that they have to be neutral, (or have to be sneaky about being on the elim-team), because they can still be lynched if they appear to be going all-in on the elim-side. I don't expect them to be all-in on the village side, but they shouldn't be surprised to be brought up for the lynch if they appear to be aiding the elims far more than they are aiding the village. Edit: Also @Straw, at what point did it turn into alienating the neutrals (plural)? I'd never expressed any desire to lynch Orlok, for example? @BrightnessRadiant, you are right that I warned against possible attempts by the parole officer to influence the vote earlier, bit I also explained later why, at the point I made my vote on Joe, I believed it was actually the best play. Joe seemed to want to join the elims full-time, and the only serious votes had been against STINK and straw, neither of which seemed particularly suspicious to me at the the time. I don't expect I'll go after Joe next cycle, however, as by now there should be enough thread content to generate some actual suspicions.
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@TheMightyLopen Everyone makes a request that someone doesn't guard against them specifically. This way it is impossible for the elims to determine who actually has an active power, and who doesn't have one. It would also allow politicians to detect when someone purposefully decides to ward against them anyway, which might be indicative that that person is an elim. The big downside is that the elims could also slip requests in to try and get a risk-less kill, but if they do that regularly the pattern could (should) lead to them getting caught. I might as well start this off. @Cluny the Scourge, I'd request you do not ward against me this cycle.
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He has been online, given that he has responded in QF 24 a couple of hours back (15 hours, to be precise). Like I said, this is a very slim lead, but his relative inactivity after asking someone else to be more active (which an elim might do to appear to be helping, though it's by no means alignment indicative one way or the other) and the random PM's (which where apparently a good enough reason for some to start lynching Straw ). There are some other people (Elbereth and maybe Wilson come to mind, as both have made substantial posts) I might be able to form an opinion on if I took the time to go through their posts with a fine comb, but right now I don't have the time nor the mental power for it. I should have that by next cycle though.
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There's only one, if I'm not mistaken, in which he pokes the flash the come and say something. He's also made (at least) two group PM's, one with the players with prime numbers, and one with the players with fibonacci numbers (which I previously wrongly attributed to straw). ninja'd by a stick
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I personally think that the chance of hitting an elim C1 are very small, so I'd rather go after a confirmed threat. Now, I've heard stories about elims getting caught C1, I just haven't seen it happen yet, and I don't have any good suspicions right now. If anyone is interested, I've currently got a minor suspicion of PK ( @Paranoid King), mostly because he's been very quiet up to this point and he made a number of random group PM's, which is also what made people suspicious of Straw. STINK also seems to be more trolly than he usually is, but I'm not sure if that means anything. There is also Straw's thing with the PM's, but I'm just not sure if that means anything coming from him. If I where to switch of Joe, it would probably be to vote on PK, but it's a very slim lead at best.
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Do be careful about all the cytonics claims. This is the kind of information I mentioned before that the elims could potentially use to try and track down other UIB Agents (if we have any), or just generally others with roles.
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I'm starting to feel a bit like a broken record here, but if you disagree with who is currently leading the lynch, you can change it around by voting. at this point 5 people have voted, while there's almost 30 people in this game. @BrightnessRadiant, I do think I've explained where my vote from Joe has come from adequately, but if you've got specific objections, I might be able to answer them. I'm going offline in a about an hour or so though, and I'm not sure if I will be back before turn-over. Vote tally(I think, correct me if I missed anything) straw(2): STINK, Araris Drake marshall(0): STINK STINK(0): Straw Joe(2): Randuir, Straw Randuir(1): Brightness
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What PK actually said is that BB's suspicion of him was the reason he protected against him, but this basically comes down to the same thing if you think about it. I still can't quite figure out why PK admitted to it though. There where some ways we might have been able to figure him out (or at least narrow the suspect list), but those methods would have required putting a lot of information on the table that the elims could have sued to figure out the roles of certain people. The only reason I can think of for Elim!PK to do this is because he expected to get put up for the lynch anyway, and wanted to use this to try and convince us that he wasn't an elim (because why would an elim give us incriminating info like that). This is probably going to be my last post this cycle, so I'm going to abstain from voting. I wouldn't want to get in the way of any last-minute vote switches if PK does come with a good justification.
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I just keep getting surprised by what you consider 'doodles' and 'quick sketches' (In a 'this stuff is awesome, I can't believe he considers this only a quick sketch' kind of way). -
I was serious about that last paragraph, btw. If you (or anyone else) disagree with the Joe lynch and have a better target, vote on that person. It's not like there's an insurmountable bandwagon on Joe right now.
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A couple of people have asked me whether I am the parole officer. So let me answer a different, but related, question. Why would a villager benefit from voting on Joe? The goal of convict!joe, as well as several other Neutrals, is to ensure that specific people survive till the end of the game. The quickest way for the game to end is if the village plays a perfect game and manages to lynch an elim (nearly) every cycle. The second quickest way for the game to end is if the village makes a lot of mistakes, doesn't get any elims, and the elims win by having a majority. For this second win-condition, every living 'survivalist' will ensure that this moment occurs sooner, as it is in their interest to end the game as soon as possible. Furthermore, the elims can guarantee immunity from the elim kills to the neutrals, while the village can't completely guarantee immunity to the lynch, unless someone can prove his neutral role(which, with the exception of the thief, is not possible this game, I believe). So, the village would benefit from a dead Joe as it removes a potential elim vote from the end-of-game hammer if it comes down to it, thereby delaying said hammer for a cycle. If this had been any other cycle, the lynch would probably be better spent trying to get an elim, but neither STINK nor Straw are engaging in (for them) alignment indicative behavior, as far as I can see. I haven't really seen anyone else say or do anything that heavily suggest that they are elims, so that's why I think taking out the known potential threat, ratehr than gambling on maybe hitting on is the better course of action. If you disagree, vote! Joe currently has the same number of votes as straw, if I'm not mistaken, and both of them only have 2 votes, so if you have a different suspicion, make your voice heard! Don't just stand there, passively! You've come to join us here in a revolution, a grand removal of our totalitarian oppressors in Elendel, so we already know that none of you are cowards! If you, sir *points at Alrin*, or you, madam *points at Julie*, believe that someone among us is not actually a supporter of our proud revolution, speak up! It is my belief that this common criminal *Points at Jack* would sell us out to the constables the moment they give him what he wants, and such a craven has no place among our bortherhood and on our barricade!
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Oh, well, in that case it's easy. Joe. I've got nothing against Neutrals, but I do have something against Neutrals that decide they want to work with the elims. Given that the C1 lynch isn't particularly likely to hit an elim (all discussion seems to be focused around STINK and Straw, and I don't have much reason to believe any of these two is an elim), we might as well take out a 'Neutral' that has decided he wants to aid the elims.
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You're right. That was my mistake, actually(as in, I thought those had been made by straw as well). Sorry about that.
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This does sound like the kind of thing you should share with the thread if you where village though. I don't see why neutral!Joe would take this risk if he wasn't 95% certain that straw was an elim, however, so either straw is making something up (unlikely), Joe slipped up badly (unlikely), or this was a ploy by Joe to try and figure out whether straw was an elim (likely).
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Really now? @A Joe in the Bush, would you care to comment on this?
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Regarding Straw's PM situation, I'm in 3 group PM's with him (one based on the groups of 3 Wilson mentioned, one based on the players with prime numbers, and one based on the players with fibonachi numbers). If this game had permanently open PM's, I'd be very suspicious of this, and if straw gets lynched and does end up being an elim, I expect the elims will have a tin-eye (if straw himself isn't the elim tin-eye). At this point, If I'm going to vote it's probably going to be on him, just because crating random group-PM's just doesn't seem to be particularly useful or productive for the village. The reason I'm not doing so right now is the fact that STINK opened up the voting season by voting on him, which makes me wonder whether we aren't dealing with the convict and parole officer here (unless I'm right, the relevant roles probably shouldn't claim just because I'm wondering about this, btw. ). Also, @Crimsn-Wolf, just how experienced are you? I know this is your 2nd game on these forums, but Joe mentioned something about you being a lot more experienced at this game than just those two games in the dead-doc of MR22. I'm asking because you seem to be playing the 'inexperienced' card again, which makes me somewhat suspicious. Vote tally(I think, correct me if I missed anything) straw(2): STINK, Araris Drake marshall(0): STINK STINK(1): Straw
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remember to drink lots of water, Aman.
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He could have been trying to pre-empt any concerted efforts to try and figure out who had protected against him. I can think of a couple of ways that might have exposed him, but all of those also have the risk of revealing all other roles that require the user to no protect themselves. I do believe I've mentioned that that plan was Yitzi's, not mine. The only addition I've made is that the politician could use it as a sort of pseudo-alignment scan. Anyway, right now I'm suspicious of both PK and Drake. I don't have much to add to BR's analysis of PK, and he's my main suspect right now. I'd like to see his response to her analysis before committing to a vote on him though. As for Drake, it's mostly just a gut-feeling right now. I think the main reason I'm suspicious of him is this comment from N1: This to me seems to be some reasonably well-done stealth suspicion-mongering. Then again, the same could probably be said about my post summing up the order of events of the vote switch-up. I haven't found any things in his post that would justify a vote, but I've also not really found anything that makes me think he's village. I'm not going to vote on him until I've actually found something, but @Drake Marshall, if you do have a targeted role like UIB investigator, PC operator or firebrand, you might not want to target me. Just saying. Also, @The Flash, once you've got time, I'd really appreciate a substantial post from you. Uptill now, about half your posts have basically been statements that you are very busy with stuff, but that you'll get around to giving more input at some point. The other half are your RNG motivated vote on BB, and you moving your vote in an effort to save ecthelion (and you wondering whether you should have stayed on BB after all, without providing any further reason). Actually, now that I've summed this up, I'm becoming slightly suspicious of you. As for other people: The only way I believe I can be sure about Lopen's alignment if he either has a role that proves him village, if I'm an elim myself, or if his character dies and his alignment is revealed. I've been wrong far too many times when one of these conditions weren't satisfied. I'm currently leaning village on Brightness, but if Yitzi does prove to be evil after all, she'd be the first person I would be suspicious of after that.
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Maaaaybe.
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Hey, you can still be Honorable while being an Elim. In LG30 I probably gathered the most honor of all players!
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It's probably too late to implement it this cycle, as for this to work you want most people to be participating. If most people agree, we should be able to implement it next cycle, however.
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Because it's not actually a guarantee that they won't be attacked if they claim. For example, if the thief where to role-claim right now, I'd seriously consider putting him/her forward as the D1 lynch, just so that the risk he poses to the village metal reserves is elliminated. The same goes for the parole officer, as his goal is directly detrimental to the village (cause a mis-lynch).
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So, does anyone have any comments on Yitzi's idea for managing cytonics I mentioned above? it even has the added advantage that Politicians could use it to check for people intentionally trying to take them out by protecting against them after being asked not to (which can be an indication of someone being an elim, depending on the circumstances).
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I agree that some good judgement on the part of the tin-eyes is required, but I also don't think that you should burn through all your tin at the beginning, just because you might die within the first couple of cycles. You are right that there might be multiple tin-eyes, but at this point all I know is that Hael said that not everyone would have a role, so how many allomancers are out there is anyone's guess at this point. in a couple of cycles it might be possible to make a better guess. It's an interesting way of dividing it, but it is dependent on the opposite assumption to the one I made: that there are multiple tineyes (and that they are divided over multiple experience groups). If all tin-eyes are newer players, with this system we'd only have PM's at the beginning. It's the same deal if they fall in another experience category. Hael said that he'd generate these randomly, as stick mentioned above. ( @Haelbarde, can you tell between which numbers this random number is picked. ie: what are the minimum and maximum number of charges possible?) Of course it is! Yep, pretty much. I write those posts as much for myself to get my head around the rules, as I write them for the thread to get my opinions on how to best utilize various roles out there. The last two times I made posts like that, I'd written most of it before even knowing my role (in this case, I'd just written the allomantic part by the time my role-PM arrived). No, they then also need to survive the game.
