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DeTess

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Everything posted by DeTess

  1. DeTess
    If we decide that there's either a lot of doubt about whether it's Devotary or Drought, or decide Drought is most likely to be the remaining elim, I suggest we solve it by tying the vote and letting Devotary decide the lynch through use of his power. If Devotary is village, it means elim!Drought will get lynched, but elim!devotary would have to risk a 50% chance of death to get his kill in, and then risk a subsequent 50% chance of death in the final face-off (which means the village has a 75% chance of victory).
  2. DeTess
    Well then, that's Sophie dealt with. Could the Fiance please stand up? At this point, I really think it could be either of Drought or Devotary, though I think Devotary is slightly more likely, as it's more likely that Eternum attempted a bus and missed Drougth's vote, than that he voted on the one innocent villager without checking how his team-mate was voting. Edit: and once again sorry for asking a question to which the answer could be found in the rules, Joe.
  3. DeTess
    In most games I've played, 1 vote is sufficient for a lynch when it comes down to the last people. It might be different this game though ( @A Joe in the Bush?) edit: The odd thing was that both Drought and Eternum where voting for you, so either one of them was bussing, or you are innocent. I called Eternum out on that and he changed his vote.
  4. DeTess
    If he was bussing, then he was staking the game on a 50/50 gamble in the end (at best)*. What I'm trying to say here is that if he just wanted to put someone up for the lynch, he could have picked you as well, as there was no good reason fro him to bus. * If Devotary and Drought are a team, and devotary gets lynched, Drought would be in a 3vs1 situation, in which he would either get lynched the next cycle, or go on and end in a 1vs1 situation with someone with vote manipulation on the other end, while likely having none himself (as he'd likely be Sophie). On the other hand, the Devotary lynched seemed locked in when you voted, so I can see you voting on Devotary even if he was your team-mate, as it gave you something of a fighting chance.
  5. DeTess
    If drought was really busy (which he seems to be), he might not have had time to do that. I know from experience in other games that using google docs from mobile isn't easy. You're right that two votes takes someone straight into the danger zone, but when Drought voted you also already had a vote on you, so if nothing else him picking Devotary over you was probably deliberate.
  6. DeTess
    Devotary(1): Randuir, DroughtbringerDroughtbringer(2): Devotary, EternumEternum(2): Elandera, Randuir Fixed that for you
  7. DeTess
    I don't think Drought was bussing, as his vote was only the second one on Devotary, and based on previous actions he could just as easily have voted on Eternum. Eternum might have been bussing (as after 6 hours of nothing happening, the Devotary vote might have looked like it was already locked in), but that vote might also have been against the one villager he knew was innocent, and he actually missed that team-mate!drought had already voted that way as well. Either way, that would make Eternum an elim.
  8. DeTess
    Ehm, this can't be right. Either one of you two is bussing when the votes don't make that necessary yet, or Devotary is innocent. I'm probably going to change my vote in a minute, but I'd like to see any last minute input from @Eternum and @Droughtbringer to help make my decision.
  9. DeTess
    At this point, I'm also very interested in seeing how @Eternum will vote.
  10. DeTess
    Yeah, that was my bad. I knew we where trying to do the random selection C1, and we where told then that Orlok was selected, but I failed to take into account that that hadn't been random.
  11. DeTess
    Specifically, I think devotary is the convert, with you or eternum being Sophie. I'm still of the opinion that devotary is very unlikely to be sophie.
  12. DeTess
    @Devotary of Spontaneity, why do you think Either Eternum or Drought would have recruited either Eternum or Drought? Both were rather inactive, so wouldn't it be safer to recruit someone more active? If you're village then I understand that it's obvious to you that they must both be evil, but just remember that for me it could be any two of you three, and right now it just makes more sense for me that you are the convert. Edit: @A Joe in the Bush, I don't think you mentioned who became immune to conversion previous cycle?
  13. DeTess
    We're halfway through the cycle that'll probably decide the game, and only two players have spoken up. @Young Bard. @Eternum, @Droughtbringer and @Devotary of Spontaneity, if at all possible could you check in and share your thoughts?
  14. DeTess
    ... I'd just like to point out that we are looking at something very close to lylo here. Right now it's 4 to 2 (assuming Sophie's conversion last turn went through). If we mislynch, that's probably going to be 2 to 2 next cycle, with the elims having either the grand steward(which means game-over), or the fiance (which means it's going to be two coin-flips, both of which the village has to win to win). Anyway, I'm going to vote on Devotary for now. I doubt Eternum and Drought are on the same team because of Drought's vote, so that'd leave either eternum+Devotary or Drought+Devotary. Then again, that vote could have been a distancing technique if the team is Drought+Eternum, but I don't think that's the case. I'd really like to hear everyone else's opinion though.
  15. DeTess
    In case anyone was wondering, the elims attacked Elandera, who I protected. This was the obvious choice, because if they managed to pick that power up, and we mislynched the previous cycle (which we did, unfortunately), they could have forced a coin-flip based victory this cycle, even if we managed to lynch correctly. #smug #totallydidn'tconsiderprotectingsomeoneelseat5differenttimes
  16. DeTess
    Btw, Joe, apologies if I change my action 3 times in the next 3 minutes. I hate these protection IKYK games .
  17. DeTess
    Yeah, the crimsn vote is the result of the process of elimination. It's good to see that you're willing to call us out on that though, that'll be useful once we know her alignment . @Crimsn-Wolf, if you've got the time, I'd still like to know why you voted the way you did at the end of C2. you claimed to be following the flow of the thread, but as I'd said at the time, that flow had just seriously changed. Not to cast undue suspicion, Devotary, but it's often better not to discuss precise protection strategies as a villager, because you just made the IKYK game for the elims easier (unless I decide to specifically ignore your advice, which isn't bad at all). It's usually in the elims interest to try and get the protection focused around 1 or 2 players, as then it'll be easier to get kills to go through. In this case it doesn't really matter because it's basically mandatory for the elims to kill one of us three, because if they kill someone that hasn't been cleared, it's game over for them. Still, trying to publicly (or even privately) guide protection roles is often something I find suspicious. Edit2: Some thoughts for the next cycle in case I die: The new knight probably shouldn't claim, because the level 3 version gets a kill, and the elims really shouldn't get... no that's wrong. The new knight should claim so he can be held accountable. If Crimsn's innocent he should focus on self-protection, as the elims will know who he is anyway. If Crimsn's guilty, then the one remaining elim can't benefit from the extra kill from being a level 3 knight because he only has one action.
  18. DeTess
    Sophie couldn't convert someone with her last life if she also got lynched that cycle(now she just can't convert with her last life), so I assume the lynch happens before everything else. @Eternum, @Crimsn-Wolf, please share your opinions as well. This game hasn't been decided yet and we need everyone who can to pitch in to help solve the game (this obviously goes fro Drought too).
  19. DeTess
    So, for those keeping track, the possible Sophies are: DroughtBringer (Player List) Eternum (x/0) Devotary (Player4.exe) CrimsnWolf (O7npC) I think we can exclude devotary from being Sophie, so that'd leave Drought, Crimsn and Eternum. Unfortunately, Sophie did try to convert this round (one attempt bounced of Young Bard), so that means Sophie had three lives, not two, and we can't rule out hat Devotary is now a convert (either that or the conversion as a whole failed). edit: So, one of Drought, Crimsn and eternum is likely Sophie. It's noteworthy that Elenion, after the lynch on me fell through, promptly moved his vote to Drought. He also made no attempts to use the 'this is too easy' approach to get the lynch off drought during the extension. Though this would have been somewhat risky if it didn't work, as it would have made Elenion look rather suspicious if Drought was an elim, it still makes me suspect Drought somewhat less. Eternum and Crimsn are both possible for Sophie, but of the two right now I'm slightly more suspicious of Crimsn. I've just got far less to look at from her posts, but she seemed to be basically following along with whoever had the most lynch votes during C1 and C2, which does make me somewhat suspicious. She did mention some suspicion of Elenion, who would have been Sophie!Crimsn's convert, but she didn't act on it in any way,s o that;s somewhat NAI right now. However, Crimsn did have a very good excuse for why she hadn't been following along with the thread before, and I believe she was around in time to tip the lynch back towards Drought, though with her stated suspicion of Elenion that would have looked very odd. On the other hand, she didn't tip it against Elenion either. I'd really like to hear everyone else's thoughts on these four. btw, @A Joe in the Bush, who is protected from the conversion this cycle?
  20. DeTess
    Ladies, and Gentlemen, I'd like to introduce to you: (please don't leave me hanging for too long guys, that would get embarrassing )
  21. DeTess
    I agree with this. I don't think it'be good to make an actual rule to not kill/lynch a new/returning player D1, but I also think most of us will avoid doing so if we realize whoever is in the cross-hairs is new or returning. I mention that part about knowing, because in the example of Bort, I hadn't realized he was someone returning from an absence.
  22. DeTess
    Alright. I'd expect Sophie!Eternum to have posted C1, unless he only came online just before roll-over.
  23. DeTess
    @Eternum, could you reasonably have been active around turnover C1? @Crimsn-Wolf, I asked you this back in C2, and I don't think you've answered it yet: Why did you decide to place your vote on Bort. You claimed you where going with the flow, but the flow had just drastically changed just before you voted. As for the current vote, after Orlok's attempt to switcht he lynch away from Drought, I actually really want to know Drought's alignment. If he's village, Orlok is almost certainly village as well, as I can't see why an elim would try to sway away a lynch on someone they know is village. However, I can also see why people'd prefer not to waste a lynch on someone they think is innocent. I'm not going to move my vote, but I won't be accusing anyone who does of high treason.
  24. DeTess
    I'd run out of time this morning to go over Elenion again, so I'll do that now. He starts with some projections on how many cycles we've got to solve the game, It has been noted that he initially got it right that Sophie would get a kill, but that set of projections also assumed that Sophie could kill and convert, so that's another reason I don't think that projection was based on on privileged knowledge. If Sophie's role PM was as detailed as mine, whoever got that role knew all the options open to Sophie. That having been said, My role PM didn't mention the 1 action limit, so I won't rule Elenion being Sophie out based on those early comments either. For the last two cycles, Elenion has taken part in the discussion, but apart from his vote on Orlok based on the kill on Walin, he hasn't really been providing many unique insights, so most of his contributions there seem to be fairly NAI. He seemed to act a bit too defensively when he was being voted on C2. In particular the comment in which he basically accused half the living, active players without much to back it up (right then) of being Sophie felt a bit off to me. This means that I'm still unsure about Elenion. If I'd had time to do this this morning I probably would have left my vote on Drought, but right now I'm less certain. If drought was Sophie I would have expected some more effort to have been put into his defense. I guess I can see Sophie busing a new convert if Drought wasn't that active though. @Droughtbringer, If you have time, I really would like to see that analysis you talked about.
  25. DeTess
    So, the two lynch targets right now seem to be Drought and Elandera. I'm not particularly certain about either of those two lynches, though I like the Elandera lynch less. The kill on Walin just seems too calculated to be done by someone completely new. @Elandera, have you played Maffia before elsewhere? Drought on the other hand seems to be a lynch target by process of elimination. There's not necessarily something wrong with that, but its an outcome I'd expect if everyone else was soft/hard cleared, and that's not the case here. Right now, I'm seeing Elenion and Orlok as the alternatives to the lynch on these two. Eternum less so, mostly because he only really became active during C2. Between Elenion and Orlok, I'd prefer not to lynch Orlok without a very well reasoned out case, and I don't have the time to make one right now. And I've just run out of time to take a quick look at elenion as well. I'm going to vote Droughtbringer, because between him and Elandera, he seems to be the more suspicious of the two. I'll be following the thread on mobile for any last minute changes though.
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