Magestar

Anyone have a last minute vote count?

If I recall correctly, at the time Ventyl thought that Ash was blocking them from using their ability, so they would have needed two roleblocks, one to stop Ash and one to use on Emi. Could be wrong though.

I thought Pyro insinuated that they'd bought the other steel trap? I could be wrong. I'm kind of in a weird spot right now because I see both Ventyl and Ash as being kind of suspicious, but it seems extremely unlikely that they're both Elims. If Ventyl flips village, it puts Ash in a really tight spot, while if Ventyl flips Elim, Ash is basically cleared. So I'm kinda liking how the Ventyl lynch is looking at the moment. However, the Mist lynch is also making a little bit of headway, so I'm probably going to leave my vote there for now. Oops, sorry about that. I guess I just wasn't paying attention. I've tried to analyze some more players, but I haven't really gotten anywhere. I've pretty much already taken a look at everyone I'm suspicious of, and I'm not sure there's a whole lot more to say at the moment. I'm hoping this lynch gives us something to work with. On a separate note, I'm really impressed with TJ and Ash. I didn't realize how new they both were, and their content and such has been pretty good. I tend to have pretty low expectations of new players, so I've been really pleased with their stuff. I'm still sus of Ash, but that doesn't stop me from also appreciating how many good posts they have.

Well, by the time I made that post, there were suspicions on me from you, Pyro, Karnage, and Ash, which is four people, and three of the more active people left. So I personally felt like it was reasonable to begin worrying. Speaking of opportunistic voting... I've started to go over some of Pyro's posts - a rather difficult task given the shear volume - and I'm noticing that most of their votes are on people who've already been voted on, and, similar to Karnage's vote this cycle, seem a little opportunistic. I'm not sure if this is necessarily anything new for Pyro... I'd love if someone else could analyze them, since I really don't trust myself to do it properly. I'm not quite sure what you're saying. It kind of sounds like you're saying I'm unlikely to be an Elim, but that I'd make a good candidate for Kandra because of stuff Araris did. So there's really not a lot I can say about that. I'd love to be able to prove I'm not a kandra with my roles, but neither of my abilities are very provable, as they both only effect me. I hesitate to reveal much more, because I feel like it'd be not so great if the Elims knew my abilities. So... I could go through and talk about all the problems with the reasons you're suspicious of me, but I think I'll just hit the root issue, which is that you want to lynch me because I seem so village that I must be tricking you. That's a little ridiculous to me. I don't even think there's really anything to defend. Anyway, I'd be up for a lynch on Ventyl or Karnage, in addition to my other suspicions. If the lynch on Mist doesn't take off I'll probably add my vote to Ventyl at this point. Wouldn't mind a vote count.

It's natural to be suspicious of me, I guess, if you feel you've somehow been manipulated into trusting me. I thank you for being willing to go looking for a reason before committing to lynching me. As for not worrying, the number of people who've professed suspicion of me makes it a little late for that. To the rest of you, and anyone who becomes suspicious of me: before committing to lynching me, I'd advise looking over my posts. You'll find the reason you trust me - or the reason to trust me if you don't yet - is that I haven't done anything Eliminator-y, and that the things I have done wouldn't make sense for an Eliminator to do. You should also ask yourself what you'd learn from lynching me. If you find that I'm both suspicious and would provide valuable information that will help you find Eliminators, I won't really mind being lynched. (I tell a lie. I will mind. I'll actually be kinda ticked off lol. Because you'll be wrong. And because I'm not that good of a villager. ) But at least I'll understand where you're coming from. The problem I think you'll face in hoping I'll provide information, and the problem I'm facing at the moment, is that most of the people I've put forth suspicion of have either died or been cleared to some extent. The other people I've put forth suspicion of don't seem to be very lynchable, I.E Kynedath and Ash. I said I'd try to get some more analysis out before the end of the cycle, and I still hope to. I'm not working tomorrow, so I'm going to try and spend some time on SE. For now, I'll throw a vote on Mist. I don't have any real reasoning yet besides the fact that they're sort of quiet and they've broken a couple ties in weird ways. If Mist is an Elim I'd be less sus of Kynedath, and more sus of Karnage. That's all I've got for now. I'll be back on in the morning.

Not gonna lie it feels kinda weird being one of the more experienced players. I feel a little tiny bit insulted by the idea that I would kill Araris just because they said they were suspicious of me. It's not a wicked smart move, and there wasn't enough pressure from Araris that I'd have killed him if I was an Elim. Drake I don't even remember suspecting me. I did do the lynch train on him... I legitimately thought that he was an Elim. Not sure what else to say about that. I thought Drake, you, and Pyro were a possible Elim team. I still don't know about you and Pyro, but Drake being village would have lowered my suspicions of you two slightly, had you not also voted on Drake. That was confusing to me. I'm not terribly suspicious of Pyro or TJ, but my "village reads" list looks more like a "Who am I least certain is an Elim" list. The XP lynch... I pushed it as a counter to the other two lynches at the time, which were running unopposed. Ideally, we'd have gotten it to the point of a random lynch. Mist's vote kind of ruined that. As far as the NAI stuff goes, yeah that's kinda funny. To be fair, we have did lynch both a lurcher and a bloodmaker; they were just the same person. I don't necessarily disagree that the likelihood that there's an Elim among the most active is fairly high, but I think it's also important to remember that fairly often, the temptation to hang back and not solve the game is fairly high as an Elim. Players who are really actively analyzing and providing good reasoning seem less Elim to me. This can turn into a bit of an IKYK, but I think it's also worth looking at players who are kind of hanging back. I'm thinking of players like Mist and Emi, who are both fairly active outside this game, but don't post in it all that much. The same was kind of true for Xinom who did turn out to be an Elim. Karnage is similar but to a lesser extent. Players like The God King and Elkanah are less suspicious, because they were actually inactive everywhere. Idk though. There's not a whole lot to go on for those players. It's part of what makes it such an effective strategy. I don't know who I'm going to vote on yet. I guess I'll decide later.

Sorry I've been quiet this cycle so far, I had a morning shift. I personally was anticipating 5 Elims. With one down, I'd say we have four remaining. That means at the current rate of death we've still got like two or three turns left till we reach parity. Assuming we can kill an Elim, we can probably pretty easily increase that number by a turn or so. So... I don't think it's possible for a dagger kill to have happened, which means that it was probably a coinshot or something that did the other kill. That's not terrible for us. It means there's probably a village coinshot. Kind of a weird choice, if they picked Matrim, but if they picked Elkanah it was pretty solid. Killing inactives isn't terrible for us. I would have gone for Kynedath, but that's just my personal suspicion. I've analyzed TJ previously, and the only weird thing I found in all their posts was one instance where they'd said "Wow, what happened while I was gone?" an acted surprised by something when I know they were on at rollover because I was keeping track. That's really it. I'd love to see some analysis on me. I think that the reason I'm not suspicious is because I've put a little too much time and analysis for my playstyle if I was an Elim. I've also acted in ways that don't make a lot of sense for an Elim. I'll try and get on later and post some analysis. We'll see how I feel.

I was going to answer this myself but actually I want to hear what other people have to say.

I mean, not necessarily. The boxings are split up randomly, IIRC. And I find it a little difficult to believe that Exp had that many more boxings than I do. I personally was really hoping to have more boxings by this cycle. What's going to be dangerous is in a cycle or two when people start being able to buy daggers and stuff. That will probably accelerate the game quite a bit. I guess that makes sense. I had assumed that since there were twinborn, most of the roles would be in the game, but I suppose they don't have to be. I personally probably won't buy a medallion, because the spending my boxings on having a random ability for a cycle isn't really my thing. I'm not really aiming for the Lerasium bead, because it seems pretty unlikely that I'll get it, but I'd at least like a charged or uncharged spike or something cool like that. Also, considering that you get 20% of a person's coins when you kill them, it seems like the Elims probably have the best shot at the Lerasium, assuming they're using the same guy to kill everyone. Kind of seems like a lost cause to me. I've been at work all day, which is why I've been quiet. Sorry no one's posted so you can post more, Ash.

Well, I can't really say I didn't expect this. I only had at worst mild suspicions of Exp. I would rather have had a tie, but this is fine, I guess. Exp hadn't been active enough recently that I feel their death will greatly decrease discussion. I wouldn't mind if some inactives die, but the curse of this game is that the actives are often the best lynch options. By my calculations, I only got at most four boxings from voting on Exp. So, I'm kinda not rich. I am a little curious who has the most boxings at this point. Kind of a shame Exp got lynched, actually, since they're probably the most likely to have that at least somewhat calculated. Trying to narrow down who I'm suspicious of at the moment... I've got a pretty village read on TJ and Elandera. I'm not terribly suspicious of Pyro, Matrim, or Ventyl. Karnage is sort of in the middle, as are Emi and Lahilt. I can't really get reads on the inactive players, which basically removes The God King, Walin, and Elkanah. That leaves Mist, Ash, Kynedath, and Kidpen as mildly suspicious. I'll try and do some analysis on each of those players before the end of the night. If there's a village kill role out there, which I'm beginning to doubt, I'd suggest aiming for an inactive or one of your suspicions. Inactives are pretty safe. Finally, I'm interested in being contacted by an Archivist, if there are any in the game. I'm curious about how that ability works, and what sort of knowledge an Archivist might have.

RP! Reginald was unsure what to make of this development. Someone would die today. That was for certain. But perhaps they would be a traitor. Reginald had worked hard to try and direct the focus of this increasingly mob-like group towards his suspicions, but it was difficult to change the minds of so many. The most he had been able to do was move the lynch towards a couple minor suspects. But it was better than nothing. Steps in the right direction, however, small, were still steps. Reginald took out his pipe. He lit it for a moment, then put it back out. Now was not the time. He could feel weariness settling upon him, but he would have to fight it, for a while at least. He needed to be sharp for whatever happened next. There would be little clues that came out, signs and meanings in people's reactions to the results of today's lynching. The mob was getting worked up, he could feel it. Yes, someone would die today. But it might finally be the right person. One step at a time. Reginald sighed. Perhaps they would leave this madhouse soon. But who knew how many traitors were still in their midst? Reginald had never been terribly religious, but now he sent up a silent prayer to Harmony. He would need more than luck to survive this mess.

As far as I'm concerned, this makes XP just as good a lynch as Ventyl. If Ventyl is an Elim trying to save fellow Elim XP, lynching either of them will help us get information on the other. I personally think that XP would give us slightly more information in general than Ventyl would, but I would still rather Ventyl get lynched than Karnage. Karnage is still a bit of an odd lynch to me. I think I've covered why before. If it comes down to it, I'll probably vote on Ventyl at the end of the cycle if the XP lynch doesn't take off. No problem! Thanks for posting. There's a couple of explanations as to why we're lynching XP. I feel like they've already been gone over in the thread a couple times now, and I don't really feel like repeating them. They're fairly recent, so you can probably find them pretty easily. Why would you be unable to vote? Thanks lol. I do attempt to be both reasonable and villagery. The confirmation is appreciated. That looks right to me. You going to vote, Pyro? I wouldn't mind having another vote on Exp before the end of the cycle.

I'd like to think it came from me. And I wanted it, in a nutshell, because all the other lynches are equally bad.

I admit to personally not being much more suspicious of Experience than I am of Karnage, which is to say, not terribly. I don't really see either of them as super suspicious. The problem is, I don't see Ventyl as super suspicious either, and I can't seem to get anyone else to consider voting for any of the people I find suspicious. So, I'm taking a page out of Drake's book, and trying to create some more tension in the lynch, to see what turns up. It is, in the very least, interesting. The more options we have, the higher probability that something interesting happens, at least in my mind. I'm also beginning to understand why Araris didn't explain all of his reads all the time. There's a very delicate line between saying just enough that the Elims react to what you're saying, and saying too much, so they know what you're up to, and don't react. I'm learning rather a lot this game. I think I'll have to write something up about it in the aftermath. Basically, I don't have much reason besides "Experience is as good a lynch as any of the others you guys are trying to lynch." Other people may have their own reasons for voting for Exp, but mine are basically just information from the lynch later and lynch tension now. Anyway, one more vote on Exp, and we'll have a three way tie. Nice.

Jeez, Ash, save some Boxings for the rest of us. You must be rich by now. Well, since a few people seem to be at least vaguely interested in lynching Experience, I'll go ahead and drop a vote. Experience. That should get it started, at any rate. Experience has already been pinged a number of times now, so I don't think my pinging them as well will do very much. I do hope that they get on before the end of the cycle. Karnage (3) - Elandera, Kidpen, VentylLahlit (1) - TJ ShadeVentyl (3) - Experience, Ashbringer, KarnageExperience (1) - Magestar I believe that should be the vote count now. I think we've got a couple good options here, and it will look even better if we can get a few people to vote on Experience. @TJ Shade, it doesn't really look like the Lahilt lynch is going to go off. Any interest in putting your vote somewhere else? And I might as well ping a few of the people to try and get some end of cycle discussion going. @Kynedath, @Mist, @Matrim's_Dice, @Elkanah, any thoughts you'd like to share or votes you'd like to place? That's all I've got for now. I'll try and be back on before the end of the cycle to see how things are looking.

That's fair, I suppose. I still think that if they'd really needed him to, the Elims could have come up with a way to get him to move his vote. I don't think his reasoning was so solid that his vote was stuck. If he'd wanted to move it, as you suggested earlier, the Elims could easily have presented some sort of small counter argument, and Xino could have switched. I do understand leaving your vote on Karnage for now. It's can be kinda dangerous to leave a lynch you're in favor of... the only real issue with this is that if everyone has this attitude, the only people who can vote for a new lynch are people who haven't voted yet, which considering how many inactive/partial actives we have, significantly lowers the pool of people who can start new lynches. Just makes it a little difficult to do anything beyond what's already being done. Fair enough. I mean, no need to repeat yourself. Sweet. That means I did my job. Ventyl, I'm unsure of. I wouldn't particularly care if either Ventyl or Karnage got lynched, I just want people to think a little more about why. I don't have strong enough suspicions to push one lynch really hard, so I'd like to get people thinking and posting about the lynches there are.

I mean. You're not wrong. Fair point. I didn't think of that one. Speaking of boxings... time for some RP. Reginald was rapidly becoming weary of the indecision and divisiveness of those held hostage in the warehouse facility. He'd been here for what, four? Five days now? And they'd found one Traitor. One. This was becoming absurd. Reginald was not made to be cooped up for long periods of time. There was rather a lot of death going around, as well. Reginald rubbed his temples. It was enough to make a man go mad. Not to mention that that other fellow - Araris, Aralis or something - had apparently been a Faceless Immortal! You weren't supposed to be able to kill those. So was one still lurking around now? It was really too much. Reginald had given up interacting with the people here days ago. Rust and Ruin, they were all suspicious. Every one of them acted guilty of something! Reginald now spent most of his time either in the kitchen or in the main room, which was always full of people. He couldn’t be alone with anyone here. Too dangerous. He no longer trusted himself to sleep. Too dangerous. If he got out of here alive, he’d never join an organization like this again. Reginald shuddered. Too dangerous. So, Reginald rested, awake, reserving his strength. He was sure he would need it soon. He would bet on it.

Ok so on to some other lynch options. There's the Kynedath option, which I've already presented. I've given that one some time, and it hasn't gone off, unfortunately. So I'll give it up for now, especially since Kynedath is nearly inactive at this point. Kynedath. I'm curious what people think of an Ashbringer lynch, which I think would give us some good information. Additionally, Ash has been involved in a bunch of the iffy stuff that's gone on so far. He was involved in the weird ILuvHats voting nonsense, which, as has been noted before, he really had no reason to be. His vote was claimed to be for "self preservation" which didn't make a lot of sense given the context of the game at the time. Ash was also involved with Drake Marshall lynch. He was also one of the people I was suspicious of at the beginning of the game for playing things too safe. Even now, there's weird stuff going on. I looked through the thread for any Ash interaction with Xino, and I didn't really find anything except for this post: which sort of dismisses Ash's weird stuff in the beginning as new player weirdness. Nothing especially indicative. But Ash has often been mentioned in other people's theories about the shenanigans that went on, as I've noticed as I analyze people. Enough times that it made me look into Ash as well. So. There's that. There's also Experience. I hesitate to mention lynching them again, since it's come and gone a couple times now, but, as I believe I said earlier in the cycle, it would provide us with quite a bit of information. I've just finished looking over their posts for the first time, and I haven't seen anything super duper iffy... I did get a bit of a weird gut feeling, so I can see where other people's suspicions have come from in the past. So yeah. There's two alternative options right there. I'm gonna drop a vote on Ash for now, see where it goes. Kind of hard to get any lynch pressure going when there's two other lynches already on their way, but here we are. Might as well give it a shot. Yeah, that's what I thought earlier in the game. After some thought though, I felt like it would be kind of weird for someone who's active in the lynch to knowingly cancel their own vote. It feels like it would have to be part of some ploy or something. Otherwise what's really the point of even voting?

Oy. What am I, chopped liver? So, the assuming the previous vote count was correct, this is the current one. Karnage (4) - Elandera, Pyro, Kidpen, VentylLahlit (1) - TJ ShadeKynedath (1) - MagestarVentyl (3) - Experience, Ashbringer, Karnage I personally am beginning to doubt I can do much to sway any of you in any direction. But hey, I might as well give it a shot. First, I'm gonna talk a bit about the Karnage lynch. Then I'm gonna present some other options. Ok, so the suspicions of Karnage. Most of them are inconsequential. Pyro's vote is because they want info on Elandera, Kidpen's is because of the vibes, and Ventyl's is self preservation. So all we've really got is Elandera. So, what I got from Elandera is that their vote on Karnage is basically similar to my vote on Drake; it hinges on the idea that we'll get info on a number of people depending on which way Karnage flips. Additionally, it assumes that Xino's vote against Karnage was a distancing tactic gone wrong. It's connection to Pyro is based on the fact that despite voting on Karnage, Pyro questioned Xino's vote on Karnage, not once, but twice. The first problem with this is that Xino actually only posted his reasoning for voting on Karnage after Pyro questioned it twice. So if the Elims were planning that switch, it wouldn't make any sense for Xino, a known Elim, to back up his vote after Pyro questioned it. Furthermore, the switch to a Hats lynch was supposedly sparked by Drake, IIRC, who is confirmed village. This doesn't necessarily mean that Karnage isn't an Elim, but does mean that the shenanigans around the switch to hats was likely not an Elim play. There's still the weird one-off soothing that happened. I can't explain that. But I don't think the Karnage lynch makes a lot of sense, as much as I'd like it to. It'd be great if Karnage was an Elim and then Pyro was too. I'd love that. But I don't think it's all that likely, given everything. Pyro's fought too hard to protect some villagers. I'll present some alternate lynch options in my next post, to keep my count up.

I don't know, it gave me a good chuckle. *wipes single tear* The vibes. Good one. I guess it's possible that now the Ventyl lynch might give us some information, but only because of this whole role shenanigans bit. I feel like we'd almost learn more from finally lynching you, since you've managed to escape the lynch a couple times now, and you've been the subject of discussion for so long. We could get quite a bit of information about the people who pushed or supported your lynch, and the people who fought against it, by knowing your alignment. Ventyl, on the other hand, would give us a little bit of information about a couple of people because of a PM conversation that most people in thread know next to nothing about. I don't really see it. Well. There's a certain point at which there's no longer a point to trying to present opposing viewpoints. I'll throw my vote on Ventyl if Striker confirms that the Boxing limit was not in fact enacted. I admit that a good portion of Ventyl's posts seem pretty off. Frankly, the Kynedath lynch doesn't seem to really be going anywhere anyway. I'm interested to see where this cycle goes. edit: OH SHOOT NEVERMIND.

I mean. 24 hours is a lot to me.

We've got like, half a cycle left. Y'all need to chill lol.

What I was trying to say is that I didn't understand where your suspicion of Lahilt was coming from unless you were also suspicious of Experience. I personally am not terribly suspicious of them, but I'm also not suspicious of Lahilt. I don't see it. ...so it's possible that Araris was killed randomly and that someone random is now the successor. Well, that's good to know. Do we know for sure how Araris died? Or why? I'm a little confused. I don't quite get this. If Ventyl were an Elim, wouldn't it just make more sense for them not to touch anything? It wouldn't really matter which villager died. So... your vote on Karnage is mostly to clear yourself and get a better read on Elandera? Ok. This whole Ventyl thing confuses me. Lying about your role is super NAI. The only reason I choose not to is because it's more entertaining for me to try to trick people without lying to them. Not every villager wants their role getting out, and for good reason. You can't know for sure whether or not you're talking to an Elim. Schrodingers Elim. But lying about your role doesn't necessarily say anything about you. Even if you stick to your guns about the lie. I don't really feel like there's a whole lot else to comment on so far. Plus I've already made my vote, and no one has really contested it or said anything much about it, except for TJ, who basically said they sort of agree with me. I'm gonna head out for another couple of hours, and I guess I'll see where things are then.

Makes sense. Also wrong, but I think I probably see where you're coming from. On the other hand, wouldn't it be a little too easy for Araris to just pick me? Seems a little obvious. Could have been an IKYK, I guess. I'm still glad to hear your reasoning, at any rate. So... Xino was an Elim. I'm a little bit gratified by that one, actually. Anyway I figure now is probably the time to discuss my reads a little more. Let's start with some things I said last day cycle. Both of these posts were my own, responding to things Drake had said. For whatever it's worth, I'm less suspicious of Pyro, Ash, and Exp now that Drake flipped village. That's also the order of confidence I have in those people's villageryness, from greatest to least. I was more suspicious of Xino, Araris, and Kynedath. Araris was kind of a niche case because their posts didn't seem particularly village or scummy, and their interactions didn't seem Elim at all. In retrospect, it kind of makes sense. I hadn't put much thought into the Kandra thing, but I'm not surprised it was Araris for a number of reasons. Anyway, my suspicion of Kynedath was based on my suspicion of Xino, so I figure I might as well pursue that. Kyne has sort of flown under the radar, which is a little bit suspicious, but more importantly it was their interaction with Xino on the first day that made me a little suspicious of them. It felt like Kyne was kind of setting Xino up for flying under the radar. The interaction read as a bit off to me, and seemed a bit forced, if that makes sense. It basically involved Kyne pinging Xino to do game analysis, sort of setting it up as a joke, then Xino actually doing it, with Kyne seeming impressed and also confirming this as there normal playstyle. It's in the first few pages, you can probably find it in Kyne's posts pretty easily. I'm not going to quote all of it. I feel like it set Xino up to make money without worrying too much about Kyne has also kind of flown under the radar. That's all I've really got on Kyne. I know other people had some suspicions earlier, if someone could bring then up for me to take a look at that'd be super great. I might analyze Xino's interactions a bit more later. Are you suspicious of Exp? I feel like the only reason to be suspicious of Lahilt moving their vote is if you also find Exp suspicious. Otherwise, if Lahilt is an Elim, it doesn't really matter if they switch their vote or not, so switching it would only draw attention to them. I've got another kind of long day at work today, so I probably won't be back online for a while. I should be back before the first half of this cycle is over with more analysis. Don't get too crazy while I'm gone.

Huh. No vote shenanigans. Well that's disappointing. I was really hoping Drake would be a traitor. Heyo that's me! I mean I did take my vote off of Coda at the end and try to start something on Ash at the end of C1, but I've voted on both of them. I think this is probably accurate. Like I said in one of my earlier posts, the Shouty Shout club was kind of throwing a bit of a wrench in my analysis of the game. I... I still have suspicions, but they're a little muddier than they would have been had Drake been an Elim. I'm less confident in them, anyway. Not that I was terribly confident in any of my reads to begin with. Idk. I've got something to work with, at least. I still think Drake was a decent choice for the lynch. What confused me is that Drake didn't really defend themselves near the end of the game. If Drake had dropped a vote on Exp, then it would have been a tie. Before Ventyl did their last minute vote swap, Drake could have pretty easily decided the game by voting on Exp. But he didn't. At the time, I thought it might be because he was relying on the Elim vote manip. But I guess he must have had other reasons not to vote on Exp. Very odd. He didn't even fight the lynch that hard. Maybe he wasn't on at rollover. Blech. I'm going to be at work and out of the house pretty much all day today, so I probably won't be terribly active. I'll try to get on before the end of the night cycle and post some of my thoughts on what Drake being village means and what implications both that and the pattern of the lynch have. edit; uh... That posted before I finished it. Odd. Fixed the errors now.