Nyali
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Everything posted by Nyali
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DC had a spanreed. I implied it at the start of day two, back when the Wilson/DC mess made me think DC was an eliminator and I was trying to reconcile the confusing PMs from the two of them to me. That's probably why DC lost his... Sorry DC =\ Also, DC claimed to have his from day one, but I can't confirm that since I wasn't in contact with him until night two. My judgment has proven to be terrible this game, especially in cycle three. Because of that, I'm going to try to sit back today (out of game today, not in-game today) and let other people talk. I'll definitely analyze stuff tomorrow well before the in-game day ends though. EDIT: Maill - format question: did the write-up mean to imply that there was only one thief, or are there an unknown number of thieves (which could still be one, but could also be more than one)? EDIT2: btw, because of the clarification earlier, we know that whomever Orlok made an item for got it before Orlok died. Trel, will you please confirm or deny that you used a one-shot Grandbow last night?
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Wow my reads are off... =\ I had Yaf and Joe listed. Meh. Elimination games are hard with total strangers.
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Thanks for the analysis, Stink! I haven't gone back to check, but I probably discussed the Wilson/DC thing the most, but that was because I was trying to reconcile the contradictory things they both said to me in PMs about the other. I'd also like protection, but I think so would just about everyone, especially the most active people xD
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I'm sorry, but your posts are not making any sense to me.
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Where is this coming from? Did I miss something?
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I think analyzing Wilson/DC is not really productive right now. There is just too much noise from the playstyle differences and the deliberate attempts to mislead each other. If you are looking for suggestions on who to look at, mine would be Yaf, Joe, or Twei. Btw, we seem to be killing the bottom of the player list first. Trelagist, Elk, and Joe are my only buffer against the Curse of the Bottom
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I'm sorry, but to me, pointing out past games where you were an eliminator as evidence that you aren't this time because you are playing differently is a terrible defense. Of course you aren't playing the same way - that just means you're smart, not that you can't be an eliminator. Anyone who even considers that they might use past behavior as a defense (or anyone afraid another will use past behavior as an attack) will deliberately play differently. In fact, pointing it out makes it less convincing/useful as a defense. Voting, even randomly, helps the town in my opinion. Sure, semi-informed votes are always better, but voting patterns can't be analysed if there aren't any votes to analyze. Nobles not voting allows GBs to more easily get away with not voting. Having so few votes in the end allows a single GB's vote to completely control the voting, and they only have to if they are targeted, which is even less likely. And people voted on are much more likely to post defenses which can be analyzed. To me, not voting only helps the eliminators. I'm not trying to take control of the town and dictate things, but I would be happy if more people voted, even if they are just gut votes. #rockthevote1173
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I'm sorry, but I still think Wilson is trustworthy.
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=\ Sorry for being wrong, Luna.
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While I'm not an eliminator making a last minute pkay, I'm not too confident about anything =\ I have a lot more trust in Wilson and DC than I did before because their dynamic appears to exactly match that of me and a friend when we try to play these sorts of games together and are both loyal. (Me being the Wilson-analog and my friend playing like DC.) Apart from that, I'm not feeling too good about my readings. I can point to reasons to vote for Luna though, more than for anyone else right now.
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Okay, well, the day's about over, and we need to reach a decision. Right now, I'm inclined to trust Wilson, DC, and El. I'm inclined not to trust Yaf, Kas, and Luna. Time's running out. I hate last second tie-breaking, but with so few people voting, it's hard. I wanted to wait until more people weighed in. I might change this if someone posts before the end, but I'm going with Luna for already stated reasons. If Wilson or DC changes their vote, I might bloc with them.
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By analyze, do you mean Spy/emotion bracelet/etc, or going over what they've posted?
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That tactic makes absolutely no sense to me. The only time I could see someone doing that was if the eliminator was super obvious and/or another eliminator outright accused them and made some form of big deal about it, trying to clear them if suspicion. The closest was me saying I was a little suspicious of him, Orlok being a GB hardly clears me, and there is no reason I'd feel I needed to be cleared - no one has voiced suspicion against me yet. That Gb wielder can't be a GB. Plus, no one has admitted to having one (I do not - I have one item and multiple people know what it is), so that tactic further makes no sense. (BTW, when I said I wanted to hear more from Sheep, apparently Sheep posted while I was writing that post, so, ignore that specific request!)
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Yeah, at this point, I totally agree with you, kas, about the DC/Wilson thing. It seems to just be a major play style difference, and one I've seen many times before. It's the exact reason me and a friend are not allowed to play the Battlestar Galactica board game together. (I'm the Wilson in that situation, he's the DC, which is probably why I was more inclined to trust Wilson in the beginning.) The one thing that strikes me as odd about your post, kas, is that you seem very taken aback by a vote against you that uses "gut" as the reason for it when, yesterday, your ultimate vote (against wilson) had the same reasoning. One thing I try to do in these games is look for people being inconsistent, and I've been pointing out what appear to be inconsistencies all game. It certainly isn't incriminating by itself, but it seems to be a useful data point. Regarding the "attempted" redirect, I think "attempted" means the redirect failed. DC claimed to have three items that he was using last night, so if Elodin successfully redirected a role action, it would have shown DC as a liar. That said, would a "role" redirect hit the GB kill action if there was one? If so, what would have been redirected if there was both a GB kill action and a Artifabrian/Spy action? In any case, I highly doubt the GBs would have had DC perform the kill if he was GB when he was so in the spotlight. So, I don't feel like the redirect failing really gives much info about DC. Sorry, this post isn't that helpful. It's great that multiple people trust me, but my suspicions all seem off right now and I don't have anything concrete to suggest. I tjink I'm going to wait a bit for more people to post before saying more. I would love to hear from Joe and Sheep in particular.
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Arisia, crouching low, held her breath as she timidly peered around the corner. The corridor was empty, as it had been the last seventeen times she checked (she counted!). Earlier, it had been quite busy, but visits to the mysterious rooms seemed to have tapered off for a time. All this intrigue stuff was exciting! And scary. But she was safe, right? She had friends to look out for her, and they were trustworthy. Completely. Err, right? Maybe not? What if she was being played for the King's Fool? She certainly didn't want to be the Fool. The Fool was too weird. She wasn't weird. She was dignified. Absently, she took another bite of her chouta as she thought. All of the suspects were just so suspicious! Well, except the ones who were trustworthy. Which were the same people, most of the time. So, suspicious isn't the right word. She considered. Susworthy? No, that wasn't it. Truspicious! Yes, the other suspects were all truspicious. She knew she wasn't a very good judge of character, and that made things hard. She could see the good in people no matter who they were, and she just wanted to trust them. After all, there was that time when she was little when she caught one of the maids stealing some silverware. The maid, startled to see her, said that the cutlery were tools of the voidbringers and she had to take them away before more people found out about them, and Arisia wasn't to tell anyone because if enough people knew their true nature, they'd wake up and start a murder spree. That maid wasn't a very good liar. But she was so nice! Someone that nice couldn't be a thief, could they? "Brightness, what in Kelek's name are you doing?" a voice said behind her. She whirled to see a guard with a very confused look on his face. "Shhhh!" she said, menacingly, a finger to her lips. "I'm being stealthy. You never know what people are up to around here, so I decided to find out." He raised an eyebrow. "And there's something suspicious about this particular corridor?" he asked. "Of course!" she said, exasperated. "There are killers around, and most of the people who could be suspects have snuck down this hallway quickly, waited in one of those rooms over there for a short time, and then come out. Other people too! No one stays long, or leaves holding anything, and they never go in at the same time." He continued to look at her with a half confused, half amused look on his face. "Is this some sort of joke, Brightness?" "No!" she said, "It's suspicious!" She waved the remains of her chouta toward him menacingly. "Brightness, this hallway leads to the privy," he said. "Oh," she said as her face slowly turned red. "Oh," she said again as she moved to stand up. She brushed off her dress, then gathered her notebook where she had been logging the comings and goings to the rooms. She put the notebook in her safepouch, nestling it between a few apples she had been saving for later. Without another word to the guard or glance in his direction, she turned and walked away. Did the King's Fool take on apprentices? she wondered to herself. I'd certainly have an... interesting resume.
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I just meant it sounded like a red heiring.
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Sorry for being confusing in my post, but I wasn't saying anyone was cleared. Based on what I had, I was postulating that either DC *or* Wilson was an eliminator, so I was trying to give the rest of the info keeping that in mind. I wasn't saying anything cleared Luna, but DC gave me reasons to believe she was clear, and that weakened my suspicion from absolute to middling. I'm not letting other people make up my mind for me. I followed up the post with a post containing exactly why I was suspicious of Luna. I just didn't include the vote I was planning to include because I'm still considering (and trying not to tunnel vision). The reason people thought Orlok's item creation went to him instead of his target was that Elodin redirected the target of Orlok's role action on N1 to Orlok. That would, in theory, result in Orlok giving himself an item, something normally impossible, but possible through the magic of Soulcasting. Unless there was a later clarification, the clarification I saw said people started with 0-3 items, not 1-3. Regarding day heiring resulting in giving items away to the thief, well, I'd much rather the thief had my item than a GB. It's not amazing, and I'm sure the thief would rather go for potential super shinies (plate/blade/caster) instead of a guaranteed mediocre item, but still. Your added emphasis seems to have been lost by the formatting as nothing is emphasized. If you underlined, they seem to not work in block quotes. Regardless, I think the point is entirely valid, just not very strong. Araris did almost nothing before dying, so looking at what was done that caused them to get targeted "randomly" is interesting to me. I don't believe in randomness when humans (or Parshendi) are involved. There was something that caused him to get targeted, even if it was subconsciously done, and even if it was just a "hey, let's pick someone who voiced a suspicion, maybe it'll throw people off." I think the code is similar to someone declaring an heir using red text. El - you didn't voice any suspicions, just analyzed other people's suspicions that you didn't agree with. Do you have any eliminator reads at all, even weak ones?
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Am I the only one trying to figure out if this is a coded message to the GBs and running various cryptoanalysis on it? <.< (<-- NERD)
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Good to know, DC, about the first paragraph. It means that my statement that one of you is almost certainly GB is no longer substantiated by the evidence I was pointing to, so you could both just be Nobles baiting each other in deliberately suspicious ways. However, then there's that second paragraph. At the very end of the night, DC, you say that you proposed a plan to Wilson and she shot it down immediately. She says that she ended the night thinking the two of you were going to work together. Once again, those statements sound at odds. I would like to state though that we should not tunnel in on just DC and Wilson. There are quite a few other people out there. For one, I still think Luna is suspicious for a bunch of reasons, all of which are quite small on their own, but together make me worry. Here's a list. Luna is against day one lynching, but I feel that no lynching, especially on day one, helps the eliminators much more than the town. But, that's quite subjective. Luna didn't vote on day one but promised to post more in the future, and then didn't really. Not super suspicious, but it's a good tactic for an eliminator. Immediately posted on day two, but didn't post anything game-relevant from what I recall in that post. Araris voted for Luna on day one and then was killed by the Ghostbloods on night one. That leads me to think that either Luna is an eliminator or an eliminator wanted to lightly implicated Luna. Orlok jumped on Strawman for voting against Luna, which could have been an eliminator protecting another eliminator, or it could just have been an attempt to vote for an arbitrary noble (Strawman) while having a solid argument for the vote, which is much more likely to succeed than sustaining the lynch of Luna which had no support to it. Luna sniped a noble with a very last minute lynch vote at the end of day two. That's always an extremely suspicious act, but it could have been a noble wanting to make sure someone was lynched because no lynches help the eliminators more than the nobles. BUT, if she felt that way, why did she say on day one that she's against day one lynches? Those two beliefs aren't necessarily in opposition to each other, but it still strengthened the suspiciousness of the last minute vote for me. To be clear, I'm not trying to build a case for lynching Luna and I'm not voting against her right now. I just wanted to share those suspicions because they're the best I've got at the moment. I'll do the same for other people I have some suspicions about later if I can. I'm not sure I have more than two or three small suspicions for anyone else at the moment though...
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The very last thing DC said to me last night, 33 minutes before the end of the night, was that Wilson was at the very top of his suspect list and had just threatened him. That's just about the exact opposite of what Wilson is saying here. DC, did you tell Wilson that you very strongly suspected AliasSheep was an Eliminator, and then later admit that you didn't actually believe that but were trying to bait Wilson into revealing information? You never mentioned AliasSheep to me at all, so that hit a red flag for me. My conversations with the two of you were extremely weird and constantly contradicted each other, which is why I'm strongly suspecting that one of the two of you is an Eliminator. Going over my PMs and looking for mentions of Orlok - DC asked me who I was most suspicious of, and (excluding DC and Luna for obvious reasons) I gave four names: Kas, Joe, Kyne, and Orlok. (Again, Joe (and others), it's super weak, but I don't have much on anyone, and accusations get information while saying "no one is suspicious enough" gets nothing.) DC's response was "I was thinking kas or joe." Joe was my weakest suspicion on the list by far, and DC never responded to my suspicion of Orlok. But, he also didn't mention anything about my suspicion of Kyne either, so that's hardly conclusive, but it is a point of reference. I mentioned Orlok in my suspicion list to Wilson. She never mentioned him or gave her thoughts on that suspicion, but she also didn't mention other people, so that's also hardly conclusive, just another point of reference. Regarding the item that people expected Orlok to create night one for use on night two, Artifabrian items only last one night, so my understanding is that even though he might of had it (or another item) when he died, it wouldn't go to anyone or show up in the writeup because it'd be gone by that point. If the item was an emotion bracelet, it wouldn't even activate before the death because death happens first. If it was a Grandbow, then it should have activated, but Orlok could have been painknifed, or Orlok could have targeted someone with protection. Someone out there has to have Plate, and we've seen a bunch of painrials change hands so far.
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Wilson obtained an item from an artifabrian night one. Our first arti reveal is GB. Also, Wilson definitely claimed to be in contact with a soulcaster. I decided last night that either DC or Wilson was GB from what was said in PMs. I'm given to believe DC now over Wilson. Sorry, Wilson! I still think you're cool outside of the context of this specific game! I was going to vote for Luna right off this morning for sniping a Noble kill yesterday in the last 13 minutes of the day. Now, I'm not so sure because DC seems to trust her, her being his heir and all. If my vote isn't key, I'd actually like to day heir. Wilson is my current heir and I now think she was playing me. But, I'm not sure who to declare. DC would be a bad choice because he implied on day two that he had three items already, so if he's noble, he couldn't use mine and he's have to forgo an item use to give it away. I don't have much, but I'd rather the GBs not get my particular item(s).
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Sorry for any confusion. I just copy/pasted Hellscythe's post and added to it. Didn't think much of the colors since it was night. Regarding the reads, they're weak ones. Posting them without context was intended to get posts like Orlok's. That said, Orlok, the second vote on a person who already has a vote on them is a key one early in the day, in my opinion. It helps start a train aiming at someone. Your reasons weren't bad though, which is why it was a very weak read, but it still gives a read because it's a good tactic for eliminators. Yes, my reasons were the same. They were the same because your argument convinced me. Giving a sound argument against someone is, to me, very different than following said argument. Second votes against confirmed nobles are suspicious to me even with sound reasons. That said, it's not a strong suspicion at all, but it is there and getting people to talk about it is useful. I'm not arguing for a vote against you or anything, just airing some thoughts and seeing what happens. Regarding Joe, some other people who I was PMing with suggested his name as someone with a weak GB read, and I wanted to see what others thought. (EDIT: minor edit for clarity.)
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Oh, err, is that bad? Should I switch it? I can switch it if you'd like!
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My opinions on some of Hellscythe's list. I'm not commenting on everyone. no opinion Elby Alv Elky Sheep Zas Burnt Kas (disagree - evil read, but weak) Seonid good Elodin DeathC Kyne Nyali Luna (disagree - snipe kill = evil read) Macen Yafe Mark Stink (agree, weak good read) Lopen evil as Trelagist (not active enough yet for me to have a read) Joe (agree, weak evil read) Orlok (agree, weak evil read) Wilson (disagree, good read, but I can be gullible) twei (disagree, no read) EDIT: Removed Hellscythe's colors
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Actually, since a Shardblade wielder killed a Spanreed holder, we know that there's someone out there with a Blade and Reed. Just like we know there's a GB out there with a Reed. Even if one of the two reed holders tried to declare an heir at night, they would have died before the heiring took effect, since heiring is last on the order of operations list. Using a one-night spanreed is totally safe, since it means you are NOT the artifabrian who made it, it says nothing about your alignment innately since the artifabrian could give it to a Ghostblood just as easily as a Noble, and the benefits go away anyway in the morning whether you live or die. That's why Wilson was safe to declare she had one. It says nothing by itself and doesn't make her any more of a target. EDIT: Editing "Plate" to "Blade" - it was a typo. I thought one and wrote the other, as pointed out by Macen below. EDIT2: Edited for terminology - used to mafiascum terms, sorry!
