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Straw

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Everything posted by Straw

  1. Straw
    Okay, here's my analysis of Ironfire's posts: D1: During D1, Ironfire pretty much just talked about codes, and asked for clarifications. He didn't really get involved in any of the discussion going on. N1: This doesn't really indicate anything. D2: Ironfire kind of defended TGK and speculated on how eliminators would behave. I suspect that this was probably to make himself look better once TGK was lynched. N2: NAI. Ironfire missed my joke. Overall, there isn't really any information we can gain from Ironfire's past posts. If he was converted, his behavior didn't really change much.
  2. Straw
    I'm going to assume that the Shattered Lens person is either the Smedry (if they can have a role), the remaining Knight, non-existent, or inactive. Them being an active villager wouldn't make sense, since it would have been optimal (in my opinion), to use it on N1, thus buying the village a cycle to possibly eliminate the Knights completely and also forcing the Knights to always convert one cycle later than they would have. @little wilson / @Elbereth does Crystal Knight Gossiper with an Airplane Spoon mean that they were targeted with an Airplane Spoon, or does it mean that they had two roles?
  3. Straw
    So, we probably have one more Knight to deal with, and they will convert this cycle. Ironfire was around on N1, so they could have converted if they were one of the starting two knights. EDIT: This means that the current lineup probably looks like this: 1x Smedry 1x Knight 8x Librarians Tomorrow (assuming no Trouble Magnet kill), it'll look like this: 1x Smedry 1-2x Knights 6-7x Librarians
  4. Straw
    Could some people retract their votes or vote for Striker? I’d be nice to have an actual Lynch.
  5. Straw
  6. Straw
    What type of code was it?
  7. Straw
    As I have said before, I had a PM with Fifth, who is now dead. This PM was one of the two that I started with. Did anyone end up decoding this message from Coda? I'll put a vote on StrikerEZ for now. I'm not a fan of their opposition to a D1 lynch. They also had this to say about the lynch on Elkanah:
  8. Straw
    I think that the top one is the most likely, as I doubt that the other knight failed to convert twice. In the case of the top scenario, the worst case scenario for the librarians would be as follows: N3: x1S x2K x8L D4: x1S x3K x6L N4: x1S x3K x5L D5: x1S x3K x4L N5: x1S x3K x3L D6: x1S x4K x1L N6: x1S x4K It phrases it that way, but I don't believe it outright says it. I'll ask one of the GMs: @Elbereth can there be multiple people who are a Rogue Smedry?
  9. Straw
    So, there are currently 12 players in the game. I think there's only one Smedry, which brings us down to 11 people who are either librarians or knights. This means that the game state right now is one of the following: If there was another knight who successfully converted a librarian: x1 Smedry x2 Knights x9 Librarians If there was another knight who has not yet successfully converted a librarian: x1 Smedry x1 Knight x10 Librarians If there was no other knight: x1 Smedry x11 Librarians
  10. Straw
    I think he was talking about the fact that the previous kills/lynches are all clustered on the player list.
  11. Straw
    Okay, I kind of forgot about Zillah's game, and never ended up really looking at it. So, here are my thoughts on it: In general: First of all, I assume that this game is either a mid-range or a long game? I'd personally recommend making it a long game, but that's just my preference, and it could probably work as a complex mid-range. Looking at the factions, there isn't really any information about them other than some nice flavor. Given the colors, I'll just assume that they're standard village and elim factions with the elims having a doc and a kill. Passion tables: -I'm glad that the illegal table has consequences. I was worried that the elims could just repeatedly choose that table and hope for an extra kill. -As far as I can tell, safety is focused around beneficial actions, illegal stuff is focused around negative actions, and politicking is a mix of both. -I feel like the most intelligent move for the village would to just have everyone choose politicking. Assuming everyone who gets the passion of passions chooses research, around 30% of the village would get a scan every cycle. Additionally, this advantage grows when you consider the passion of planning, as this would allow a player to have two chances at getting passion/research. Combined with the fact that no one has a role, and is therefore free to release any results, the eliminators are pretty much doomed. -Assuming you nerf the above strategy, there's also an issue with the safety table. By employing a similar method to the one I described above, you could get a large number of villagers with action scans and protects. By using these, you can get a pretty high chance of either blocking the elim kill or finding a possible suspect to lynch. Players who rolled survival could redirect to protected players, which would waste the elim kill. It's almost past midnight, so I'll go sleep and maybe post some more thoughts later.
  12. Straw
    The news report is dated 11:32 AM. The press release from D2 that announced the ambassador's death was at 12:00PM.
  13. Straw
    Given that the news report is dated before the actual press release, we either have a spy in the White House or some precognitive reporters. I propose that we investigate each of these possibilities, as they both seem rather important.
  14. Straw
    @Elbereth I believe the press release that is currently in the writeup is an exact copy of the one from D2. Is it a mistake?
  15. Straw
    I will nominate @Araris Valerian, @STINK, and @Elbereth.
  16. Straw
    I presume that we'll just be doing nominations and then a poll like we did every other year?
  17. Straw
    I somewhat agree with your read on Coda, stuff like this just feels off to me: However, I do like the fact that they supported a lynch, as seen here: I also originally felt like they were using codes too much, but even when you exclude all their code posts, they were still decently active, so that's another point in their favor.
  18. Straw
    To some degree I feel similarly, but I honestly can't see any other lynch targets. It'd help a lot if you could point out some of the suspicious things you've seen, thus allowing us to also discuss them as possible alternatives to the current lynch.
  19. Straw
    Sorry for the double post, but I'd like to respond to this edit before I go to sleep. Your main point so far against lynching is that it removes someone from the game, which isn't fun for them. Personally, I feel like when you sign up for a game, you're essentially agreeing to be lynched or lose. It's just something that's part of the game. At it's core, mafia is an information game, and jailing people gives far less information than lynching them. I'd also like to share this quote from Elkanah:
  20. Straw
    Would you mind summarizing the message you received and what exactly felt off about it? Neither of these are any sort of defense. If you don't want people to lynch you, stop resorting to ad hominem attacks. In my experience, trying to figure out alignment in this way is mostly fruitless, since neither side particularly wants to get lynched, and response also varies massively between players. It's reasonable to be annoyed that people are lynching you, but attacking people is not exactly going to improve their opinion of you. As I said above, it'd be helpful if you could list some of the suspicious clues so we can have some discussion about them. Thanks! Also: be careful about tunneling. Instead of asking someone to decide for you, I would recommend looking at people's posts and forming your own opinions on them. This way you actually add something new to the discussion instead of just following another player. I don't do much analysis usually, but it is very useful. I don't think there were really any bandwagons on D1 other than Elandera. BTW, I also had a PM with Fifth (from the start of the game). I don't think you're told if you're transported, and even if you were, you could have been targeted by a "silent" action that you didn't notice. I think it might be helpful if he also provided an alternate vote target in addition to explaining his behavior. I also slightly disagree with your statement that there's nothing he can really do to defend himself. I also think that the codes are a bit more game relevant than RP, but I do agree that we shouldn't focus too much on them. After all, enjoyment of the game is also important. Other than that, I can't really see anything big in here that I disagree with. First of all, I should probably talk about my own role with the codes. As far as I can tell, you're essentially accusing me of not posting decoded versions of them as they were posted. This is true to some extent. I had figured out the key and I had been decoding them for quite a bit before I actually posted them with translations. This was for a couple of reasons. First of all, I didn't see any particularly important information in your early codes, which is why I only started posting them after you and Coda had started discussing game-relevant information. I was also worried that I was missing important information in the codes that I was unable to decode at first. Finally, I honestly didn't see them as something that was particularly important to the discussion at hand. In regards to the rest of your post, I don't particularly feel like Joe was insulting you as a person. In fact, you have been insulting him. You said that he was only voting for you due to a hurt ego, which is hardly the case. Also, analysis is something that's normal. If you feel that Joe was being unfair, please quote the lines and explain why they were unfair. The final bit of your post feels like an elim guilt tripping the village. If you're village and are really just trying to have an original opinion, then you're free to do so. But don't get mad when people criticize your opinion and attack you due to it. The_God_King
  21. Straw
    On the topic of role actions tonight: I don't really see any reason for the Shattered Lens person to not set up pillars tonight, so they should probably do that. I agree with Joe about TGK being a likely Crystal Knight (I'll talk more about this later when I have more time), so it'd be nice if any Curators or Trouble Magnets could target them.
  22. Straw
    In my opinion, it's perfectly reasonable to do that D1 as a villager. After all, you know that you're village, and therefore the only people who would want to kill you would be the elims.
  23. Straw
    BTW, has anyone solved Elkanah's code?
  24. Straw
    Huh, for Coda's I just guessed the code type by eliminating possibilities and then choosing the most likely one. I ended up making a program to solve it using frequency analysis. I couldn't get the reversed ones until Coda mentioned they were reversed.
  25. Straw
    Top translates to: "How about this?" Bottom translates to: "If you have trouble let me know" Translates to: "I think I got it, but what was the second question the numbers decode to?" EDIT: @The_God_King what method did you use to decode the first message?
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