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Straw

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  1. Straw
    I'm probably not going to do much analysis for other turns from LG33/LG18. After the first turn, things tend to diverge more, so analysis of past games is a bit less helpful. I might take a look at overall trends in past games, as those might be more applicable to this game. If you have a bit of extra time, could you calculate the amount that Edema Ruh and Cealdish Commoners can expect to make from the loaded die? I think that might be why the two to one winning ratio is so bad for most players. If it was higher, Edema Ruh and Cealdish Commoners could get a lot more money with minimal risk. Also, I'm sad that El and Wilson capped the amount you can bet. I wanted to see some Vintish Nobleman bet 50 talents on the 20:1 and end up with over 1000 talents. @Furamirionind All of your rooms are half price, thanks to being Edema Ruh. This means that Mews will only cost five jots, instead of a full talent. RP posts also count for five jots rather than five drabs, so if you're willing to do some RP you don't have to make quite that many game related posts. @Elandera Lopen has not been voted on yet, and I think it'd be best to have a vote on all the nobles before voting on any commoners such as myself. Also, if you're going to vote on a commoner right now, at least vote on someone who hasn't posted yet. That way they'll have more of a reason to post. [EDIT: Another reason to vote for the nobles is that some are staying at the Golden Pony and will have one vote subtracted from them automatically. Since I assume that the initial start for each social class is evenly split between the one or two possible locations, half the nobles should be able to take an extra vote.] @Elbereth / @little wilson is there any chance you could give us a clearer picture of how the Eolian odds work (die used and the threshold to win pipes)? It'd be useful for people to know how useful practicing is.
  2. Straw
    Since Karnage is a noble, I'll put a complaint on them for now. As promised, here is my money graph. Some thoughts on tuition reductions: First of all, there are a few basic activity checks that most players will probably meet. If you post once, send a PM, file a complaint, and impress a master, your tuition will already be down to eight talents and one jot! Other than these basic checks, there are also reductions that are basically compensation for spending money and participation awards. I doubt that most of the compensation reductions will end up helping out most players. After all, if you have enough spare money to buy items, tuition is probably not an issue for you. The one reduction that is helpful to Edema Ruh is the talent pipe reduction. The rewards for quality RP and discussion are probably going to be very important to the poorer classes, as they are usually the only way for Ruh to get their tuition to be affordable. Unfortunately for people like me who don't love RP, RP is worth 10x as much as game discussion. The only advice I can really offer with this is that it is probably smart to wait until you have 200 words before posting. Also, if you have over 200 words, consider saving the extra content for your next post. Here are my thoughts on the Vintish nobles (I'll talk about the other social classes later): Vintish noblemen have a massive stipend, and should be able to easily afford tuition even with their 33% tuition inflation. They really don't have to bother with getting tuition reductions, but it's still beneficial for them. Vintish noblemen do have the issue of housing, as they are usually forced to spend a minimum of nine talents on lodging. Something interesting that I just realized is that most Vintish noblemen will be unable to stay at the Gray Man, and are therefore unable to just sit in Imre all the time. I'd estimate that most Vintish Noblemen will end up having a net gain of a few talents per term. Most Vintish noblemen will probably be saving up money to buy items from Imre, as they do have quite a bit of cash to throw around.
  3. Straw
    Last game I posted quite a few graphs. I had tons of fun doing it, so I think I'll continue doing it this game. Hopefully, someone will get some use out of them. First of all, here's a pie chart of the player classes: Also, while some things have changed since LG33, here's a graph of how players spent EP on term one month one last game: So essentially, you probably don't want to go into archives if you care about being elevated. Since the starting funds and stipend are inconveniently split into talents, jots, and drabs, I converted them into drabs below. Hopefully this should make comparison a bit easier. I'll also probably make a graph about this at some point. Vintish Noblemen start with two thousand (2000) drabs, and receive three thousand (3000) drabs as a stipend each term. Aturan Noblemen start with one thousand three hundred thirty-four (1334) drabs, and receive two thousand (2000) drabs as a stipend each term. Yllish Commoners start with seven hundred forty-nine (749) drabs, and receive one thousand one hundred twenty-three (1123) drabs as a stipend each term. Cealdish Commoners start with six hundred fifty-eight (658) drabs, and receive nine hundred eighty-seven (987) drabs as a stipend each term. Edema Ruh start with three hundred four (304) drabs, and receive five hundred sixty-seven (567) drabs as a stipend each term. Looking at this, you can see that Edema Ruh have it very rough. They start with less than half the amount that Cealdish Commoners get, and only get slightly more than half as a stipend. My advice to all Ruh is to try for pipes ASAP and if you don't get pipes, just drop out of university. Also, please don't vote for people who are Edema Ruh unless you're very suspicious of them, since they need all they money they can get. I believe that is my 200 required words, so goodbye for now!
  4. Straw
    I will sign up as Straw.
  5. Straw
    Oops, I shouldn't have said that. If you look at the Knight doc and the spreadsheet, Ironfire had to make a gossip PM N1. On N2 they tried to put in the action via the doc, which resulted in them not converting. Interestingly, even if they had converted, they were targeting the kill for that night.
  6. Straw
    Gah, looks like I lost the IKYK game with Experience. I fell for one of the classic blunders! I had a lot of fun this game. Big thanks to @Elbereth and @little wilson for GMing and making all those fun writeups and Coolidge posts. Hopefully you two are now enjoying your escape from the paradoxical OoA. When you two get a chance, could you tell me how you felt my rule went? I took it straight from a game I made, so this was a useful little playtest. I'm happy about how much I wrote in my doc this game (34 pages!!!), even if quite a lot of it is just code breaking. I'm also quite happy with how far I got. I had expected to die far sooner. I legitimately thought that there was no way that there were no Knights left, which ended up causing my downfall. If I had just left the lynch on Experience, maybe I would have won (or not). BTW, I'm not sorry about killing so many people. After all, what else do you do with unspeakable cosmic power!?
  7. Straw
    Sart is a Silimatic Engineer and probably has protector's glass on. EDIT: I don't suppose you'd accept a draw? If Sart dies, I'll be unwilling to target you due to a 50% chance of death. Thus, the GMs will probably be forced to draw. I doubt they'd be willing to just let me sit around until you go inactive and I can safely kill you.
  8. Straw
    Experience, claiming Transporter was smart. I guess you'll kill me or Sart tonight and then just finish off the other one of us on N7?
  9. Straw
    I'll switch my vote from Sart to Shqueeves. Hopefully they're a Knight.
  10. Straw
    Here's my analysis. Three Knights. I don't think any of the remaining players are inactive enough that they'd be unable to lynch, so if this is the case then we're probably in trouble. However, in this scenario the best option for the Librarians is to try and lynch a Knight. Without the Smedry's kill there's no way to even have a chance of winning unless there are multiple inactive Knights. The best option for the Knights in this scenario would be to lynch the Smedry. Two Knights. If the Librarians lynch the Smedry, the Knights will win unless they're inactive. If a Knight is lynched, the Smedry will win unless they accidentally hit the other Knight. Personally, betting on the Smedry missing is better than betting on the Knights being inactive and not converting. Lynching the Knight would bring it to 1 v 3, and the Librarians could lynch the Smedry in a 1 v 2 the next day. Lynching the Smedry would make it 2 v 2 on D7. Since 50% is an imprisonment, the Librarians would only have a 25% chance of winning the game. If there are no Knights, the Librarians would still want to try and find a Knight to kill, just in case. Even if a Librarian died to the lynch, and another died to the Smedry's kill, there would still be enough Librarians to lynch the Smedry and win. Personally, I don't see any situation where it would be preferable to try and lynch a Smedry over hunting for Knights.
  11. Straw
    Since Shqueeves is inactive, I am more inclined to lynch him than Sart. My vote was mainly a poke to get Sart to respond as to why he thinks that lynching the Smedry would be better than trying to find a Knight. I was also slightly suspicious that he might have been trying to pocket you by saving you from the lynch.
  12. Straw
    I highly, highly, doubt that Ironfire didn't convert anyone. He was active N1 and N2, both turns during which he could have converted or been converted. I find it significantly more likely that the Knights missed a conversion at some point. For example, tonight the elims had a 1/2 chance of either hitting the Smedry or Kidpen. Also, if Experience redirected to a Knight, that could also cause them to miss. Personally, I'm pretty suspicious of you, Sart. There's little point to taking risks at this point, and it's ridiculous to imply that we could pivot into a win if there are one or two Knights. Your behavior feels like a Knight who has a conversion coming up on N6 and is trying to lynch a Librarian or Smedry to solidify your victory. There's also the possibility that Kidpen used their paper toss and hit a Knight, and you're waiting for the conversion to finally come through.
  13. Straw
    Okay, to break the tie, I'll vote on Elandera.
  14. Straw
    I talked with Sart, and if someone else changes their vote to Elandera, I'll vote on her. This post in particular made me wary of her: If the Smedry dies, we're in a lot of trouble. They have just as much of an interest in destroying the Knights, and if they die we'll only be able to use the lynch, which is troublesome considering how close the Knights are to parity.
  15. Straw
    @Shqueeves @Zillah @Kidpen do any of you have anything to say?
  16. Straw
    I've been posting hypothetical situations because no one else was doing it. With this many players left, knowing how many people there are/will be in each faction helps us quite a bit. If I was a Knight or Smedry, I wouldn't be posting that stuff in the thread. I'd also appreciate something more concrete than "feels off". You've repeatedly accused me of being a Knight while not really giving me anything I could argue against, which I find pretty annoying.
  17. Straw
    I thought that if I was a Knight, I would target lurkers. I was just encouraging people to take a closer look at people like Ironfire. However, I felt like your statements on D4 were odd and felt like an elim slipping.
  18. Straw
    Coda is dead and was a Librarian Oculator. Are you claiming Transporter Oculator?
  19. Straw
    After looking back at Experience's posts yesterday, I definitely agree with Elandera. Experience.
  20. Straw
    First of all, we don't know if Ironfire was converted or was the converter. Also, Ironfire was around on N1, so he could have converted someone if he was a Knight. His activity only dropped off after N2.
  21. Straw
    Well, that's not good news. As I said, I really think we should be taking a look at the inactive/lurking players. Also, an update on the probable distribution: x1 Smedry x2 Knights x5 Librarians If the Smedry chose randomly, they'd have a 2/7 chance of getting a Knight. Possible distributions for N5 start: (Knights will have conversion) 1K, 5L (Smedry kills Knight, lynch on Smedry) 1S, 5L (Smedry kills Knight, lynch on Knight) 1S, 1K, 4L (Smedry kills Knight, lynch on Librarian) 2K, 4L (Smedry kills Librarian, lynch on Smedry) 1S, 1K, 4L (Smedry kills Librarian, lynch on Knight): 1S, 2K, 3L (Smedry kills Librarian, lynch on Librarian)
  22. Straw
    I'm not exactly sure how I'm supposed to defend myself here, as the crux of your argument seems to be that I am active and trusted. I'll note that the code cracking thing is essentially irrelevant, as no new codes are being posted, and I posted all the codes I've cracked in the thread. I can offer the counterpoint that if I were the Knights, I wouldn't want to convert active players. A change in faction will probably provoke some kind of change in behavior in most players, as they are now aiming for a different win condition. Active players are also more likely to have stated suspicions or done analysis, which makes it difficult for them to change their views to benefit their current faction. Therefore, it would be preferable to convert lurkers rather than active players. Based on this, I'd take a look at Kidpen or Shqueeves. I haven't seen much from either of them, but I might have missed something.
  23. Straw
    Instead of unhelpfully saying this, maybe you could contribute something to the discussion and/or answer Elandera's question? The current lynch on you is mostly based on gut, so if you have a better lynch idea, I'd certainly consider it.
  24. Straw
    In my opinion, the Knights are the bigger threat. The Knights are coordinated, whereas the Smedry is a lone wolf. In addition, going after the Smedry at this point is probably detrimental to our chances, as they can possibly hit the Knights with their kill. The Smedry will never be able to control the lynch, whereas the Knights could possibly get a majority by converting.
  25. Straw
    I'm going to assume that every role has been included in the game. If that's the case, we have at least one of the following roles in play: -Anonymous Contact -Criminal -Head of the Order of the Shattered Lens -Madness Lenses -Oculator -Paper Tosser Currently, the Head of the Order of the Shattered Lens has not used their role, so they are most likely inactive or an elim. Criminal isn't really useful right now, and we don't want to be imprisoning anyone at the moment. Oculator doesn't seem very useful at the moment, and by the end of the game I feel like most people will have PMs with almost all of the other players. I don't see much of an advantage to the Madness Lenses. The Paper Tosser can delay conversions and kills, which is useful. Specifically, the Paper Tosser could be useful in a situation like this: Night, knights have conversion x1 Knight x2 Librarians (one is paper tosser) The paper tosser could get a win for us by hitting the knight, thus allowing the remaining librarians to lynch them the next day and win.
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