DrakeMarshall

I'm spiraling hard into tinfoil and tunnels land rn the elim team is TJ/Mistfallen/Araris with idk Coco or Hoid as the last everything makes so much sense now we've cracked this case wide open we should've probably just listened to Stick yesterday yeah I'm not optimist enough to seriously believe in it, I'm going to take a break and come back to it later

oh thank goodness it's not just me this is also a good take

You were around on Day 1B when the Burnt wagon shifted to Divergent, and you left your vote on Stick where it didn't affect things. Pardon my directness, but why do you suddenly care now? ...also, if trains vanishing for no good reason on D1B is sufficient criteria to kill someone, shouldn't we also kill you?

I used to lean village on Coco but after skimming previous days I've bumped the read back down to neutral. I don't remember specifically what posts made me revise sorry. Archer is an enigma. Purely in terms of my elim team profile I think Archer fits the bill, but I can't actually point at any specific reason to suspect Archer, so I'm probably not going to for now. I did say Archer looks better off of connectives but it's less so than Doc or Burnt. I do agree Stick is another candidate for someone who aims for the L1 win. I should admit that there is probably an activity bias in my connectives analysis. Players with more activity have more unpairing interactions, making them fit on less elim teams, making them seem more village. The inverse is also true, with less active players looking more suspicious. I still think the connectives are useful, and I don't believe the entire elim team is highly active, but it's worth bearing in mind. Who do you think constitutes the pool of 'high' activity players circa loop 1?

Well, the flip side of that deduction is that killing a confirmed villager signals that the Dive vote was a miss and the elims think they’ll win. If v!Dive, maybe the elims didn’t want to soft clear Dive. However it’s mindgames all the way down until we get the concete feedback of either winning or losing a loop. I appreciate Wahr breaking it down though, I hadn’t thought of all that. edit: Kind of an odd assumption there, if you ask me! I am a bit surprised 2 votes already joined mine, since I didn't super explain it, but I'm certainly not complaining Well here are some loose reasons off the top of my head: TJ has been playing with limited bandwidth, which is fine, but from what I've seen more of that bandwidth is going to responding to the occasional TJ sus than it is to casing anyone, which I squint at. This is a somewhat cherrypicked example but take a look at this post. Multiple paragraphs of proactively responding to people's TJ suspicions when he wasn't really in danger, and then a vote with a one-line explanation that boils down to "the vibes are off my friend." Those priorities are suspicious. I refer you to my Day 3A vote analysis. I think it was a village/village tie and the elims were probably just letting it happen. TJ is not the only one implicated by this line of reasoning (you are too actually ) but I do have trust reads on some of the people which narrows it down. It's a minor thing but I do think TJ's a player who would have a strong preference against Wonko's "elims throw the first loop" strat, which y'all seemed surprised about when the elims didn't do it. I wouldn't put much stock in this but it's there /shrug Connectives Honestly I think everyone except the cleared 3, Hael, and Wonko is sus rn I'm sure I could come up with a bullet point list for others but I choose TJ to go at the top of the list sorry friend

well I think the most interesting thing Wonko did recently was this: Excellent. Now, the nice thing about this list is that, until very recently, I don't think any of us assumed you could deliver it. The rules and clarifications up to this point did not indicate that the Postman learned the senders and recipients of all messages. So, barring the possibility that you're an elim and either warned your teammates or fudged the above list, we can assume that no messages were sent between e/e pairs, because it would be a meaningless waste of Rupees. That's pretty useful. ...and just because Wonko isn't around to talk about it doesn't mean I won't! The connectives imply Burnt, Doc, and Archer are more likely village here. TJ, Hoid, Stick, Araris are more likely evil. source: trust me bro Combine that with some of my personal credences and I suppose I'll vote TJ.

Okay I've skimmed real quick across Day 3A. Don't get used to it, I don't like all this backreading I'm surprised by how many people thought Wahr was evil. I liked Araris' posting. Kind of weird, I'm not used to getting a good read on him. Still. TJ seemed defensive in multiple cases and I think what a player experiencing low bandwidth spends their limited bandwidth on is telling. Other than that, let's talk about the vote tallies: Day 3A Vote Count: (3) TUM: Archer, Mistfallen, coco (3) Haelbarde: Divergent, Stick, Hoid Slayer (1) Doc: Wonko (1) coco: Araris (1) Divergent: TJ (1) TJ: Doc (4) Not Voting: TUM, Haelbarde, Burnt, Coder (yep I'm greening my own slot deal with it) I would characterize this as a low-tempo vote. The leading trains were only 3 votes, with plenty of scatter in the side-trains. One of the leading candidates volunteered to be voted out, and folks shrugged and assented. Neither of the leading candidates were voting. There was one vote placed 15 minutes before the turn ended tying it up but no major flurry of activity, and no one seemed that urgent (possibly relating back to the fact that folks thought Wahr was evil and they had already won the loop?). The point is, this was not a hotly contested vote. If we've established that the elims were going for a win on the first loop, and there had been zero elim deaths up to this point, this is not what a Village/Elim tie should look like. Imo, this is obviously a tie between 2 villagers, which makes Hael a villager. You don't have to agree but that's my take on it. Imo, the elims probably weren't pushing hard to control the outcome, especially since TUM offered himself up like that. They were probably in distancing mode. Since they weren't throwing their weight around and were trying to blend in, I predict that their votes were pretty evenly scattered across the options. It's not the only option, but it's probably what they default to in this scenario. I doubt they're all on main wagons, or all on side wagons, or all not voting. Side-wagons is probably technically the most suspicious place to be, since it's doing something without interfering with the misvote. Also because I think most of the non-voters were village, although Burnt could definitely be evil. Side-wagon voters are Wonko, Araris, TJ, and Doc. I have a positive read of Wonko and Araris at the moment. Crem List: Burnt, TJ, Doc I think at least 1 elim was probably on the main wagons though.

Okay I’ve done the math and it’s true that 2 random deaths does actually favour the village in this case. well, one caveat - if we don’t have any extra deaths, we can win by blocking a single elim kill and executing a single elim, instead of executing 2 elims. This is what I was aiming for with the Bremen mask, which I think is extremely good value for its cost. Additional village deaths shuts the door on this path to victory. But if we are not able to prevent any kills, a few random deaths is in fact good for the village. Since we need 8/2 to win, and 6/2 is still a win. …second caveat though is that a 6/2 win is technically worse than an 8/2 win since the suspect pool for the 2 elims is bigger. But I do think it’s still probably worth it because I’m not confident we can pull any sort of win from this loop. A consequence of the parity condition is there’s some funky discrete cutoffs in whether more death helps the village or not. anyways, you are correct that more deaths is basically a good idea, I guess I still think the Blast Mask user might disagree. Either they’re village and they know one of those deaths won’t help, or they’re evil and I doubt they would helpfully let themselves be killed. One way or another I somewhat doubt we’ll see any fireworks tonight. still, I guess the more deaths there are the more clears we get if we lose the loop, so it’s also better for hedging against a loss. fine, the plan isn’t quite as crazy as it sounds

that's so cursed The different outcomes you're describing aren't equally likely. The one where it kills 2 villagers is the most likely, and the one where it kills 2 elims is the least likely. Because most people are villagers, a random shot usually hits villagers. On average, a completely random kill does not influence parity. However, note that the overall number of deaths does actually impact the village's chances of winning. Loop 1 was more favourable for the village due to there being 1 less death, even though it was 1 less execution the village got to wield. Extra executions are usually a net plus for the village but not this time. Usually I'd be all for the bloodthirsty approach but are we sure adding deaths is the play in this setup? Also, the alignments of the victims of this strategy isn't strictly random. I somewhat doubt the elims would pick up the Blast Mask. That mask is not very helpful to elims. Yes there's the world where they buy it just to look village, or to keep it out of village hands, but it's still a 20 rupee expense and personally I feel that's not as likely. If my understanding of the rules is correct, the Blast Mask user could also just not equip the mask, and nobody explodes. And I doubt they have a death wish. Pragmatically, that seems like the most likely outcome here: the Blast Mask user is too afraid to use their mask since from their point of view it's not so good for their team. I think that's a situation that favours the elims, since they don't have to fear retaliation to their kills. I'm sorry but I'm not really a supporter of this plan Who is this 'we' you speak of smh I did not win it last time

Squircle had been asking a lot of questions lately. It was understandable, perhaps. Many people forgot things between loops. It was certainly nothing to do with the fact that he was still wearing the Drake Mask. He asked about the time loop, how it worked. He asked about the calamity, how it happened. He asked how they could stop it. He listened attentively and took all the answers in stride with a detached calm. It was a little unnerving. The particular situation was quite unfamiliar, but he was no stranger to strangeness. Occasionally, he would blurt out phrases that didn't make sense, stringing together words like "elims" and "pocketing." He explained that this was the mask's fault and the townspeople should pay it no mind. Squircle was embroiled in a spirited discussion with the Happy Mask Salesman when the evacuation order came. He shook his head and looked around, noticing that most of the people were already gone. The Happy Mask Salesman was feverishly packing up, too. They would have to close a deal another time. The exact nature of the threat was vague. The guards had, understandably, been in a hurry. "Something terrible comes at sunset," Squircle guessed. "The elims always act at night," he muttered to himself. There wasn't much time. They wouldn't get everyone out of town by then. He looked for a way out. "This way!" he called out to the other stragglers. He stopped at the brink of a dark tunnel mouth. Somebody had helpfully left the hidden entrance exposed, and the passageway looked well-constructed. "A faster way out of town, I hope." There was always the chance that the mystery danger would come from the tunnels, but he'd have to take that chance. There was an unlit torch stashed on the hidden side of the entrance. Squircle grabbed it and lit it, then advanced into the unknown.

well that feels like a bit of a random push oh well I forgot when rollover was and didn’t vote so I’m not one to talk whoever got the Bremen mask, I strongly recommend using it on both N1 and N2 of the loop to try and block the kill, as that basically lets us win the loop straight up no need to be coy with saving charges yellow submarine beatle

bold of you to assume I wasn’t already bidding on the explosive mask and just lying about it …this may be a hot take but I think talking about things is still good even knowing some people will probably be lying for tactical reasons I’m also against making everyone claim what they’re doing, mind. But I mean there are real benefits on the table for talking a bit about who is bidding on what. We don’t all bid on the same things and leave other things up for grabs. The elims will certainly coordinate amongst themselves if my profile of their team is accurate, all we get by making everything Top Secret:tm: is that they’ll generally earn more masks on average cuz they coordinated and the village didn’t. in the spirit of honesty (as you all know I am very honest) the postman’s hat is no longer my top bid because I realized it’s really not as good as I thought it was technically it was never my top bid due to some confusion over the bidding rules but that’s not important I’m now much more interested in the Bremen Mask Anyways I’ll be back at some point I just wanted to respond to the @ alright peace

you know the “nobody is defending them” line stops working so well when everyone is doing it I think the push is fine actually if that’s the main reason we’re going off it But you all are more in the loop than I am

You’re selling yourself short, I would totally spend 3 rupees to keep you pocketed I admit it’s a weird feeling for me not to be the one playing devil’s advocate and pushing against consensus here to be fair though I haven’t actually voted yet so maybe it’s too soon to call it

I like what Wonko’s cooking. Wonko and Coco are probably good, in addition to the 3 cleared people.

Alright well my gut at this point says it's tentatively okay with killing Mistfallen for whatever that's worth. (Sorry Mistfallen ) My kill-hedging theory is looking a little like a dead-end now unfortunately, and I'm not sure I like how Mistfallen handed me Wonko and Burnt so quickly. I guess self-preservation is understandable given his current position in the vote. But like idk it just feels weird to hand me that ammunintion without actually weighing in on whether you think my theorycrafting up to that point actually made sense. Coco's response was more in line with what I'd expect from a villager idk. wrong on both counts, actually I'm village and I left that line in on-purpose yes yes very slip much evil but I mean we the players went off the rails and I stand by it I was, after all, suggesting the village take things even further off the rails right after that although wouldn't it be funny if me and Stick were actually evil teammates

oh well thanks everyone it seems I have retreaded what was probably some previous days discussion but at least I'm more up to speed now so I appreciate it

So it is just 2.5 always. The different parity numbers for different loops confused me, but I guess Aman was just assuming the loops would have the max number of deaths, and loop 1 doesn't have a day one execution. Guess he didn't expect we would diverge from that plan so much lol. Speaking of which, that kinda means it's in our interest not to execute 3 times per loop, right? I mean, 2 chances to get 1 hit is just plain better than 3 chances to get 2 hits. ...okay but regardless, they didn't have to do the kill on Night 2. They could've waited and picked the best person to clear after Night 3. So they were probably still hedging by killing on Night 2. But I guess it wasn't as costly for them to hedge, since they apparently needed to get at least 1 kill anyway. Alright well the elim strategy makes sense assuming all of this is right. Somebody thought this through.

oh yep that's right there in the game timeline, loop 1 needs to end with 7/4 for the minions to win ...wait what we didn't end with 7/4 though we ended with 9/4 what exactly is the loop 1 parity cutoff, because it's not 2.5 like the other loops is it, and I'm not seeing a different number anywhere in the rules for 16 players Is loop 1 actually different from the other loops or is 2.5 the parity condition on all of them?

Eat the chess pieces. You know you want to. They are delicious It's weird that the elims killed someone on Night 2A. Presumably if they were committed to the no-free-clears strategy, they would have no good reason to kill on 2A. There's something to be said for using the kill to silence opposition and control the vote, sure, but Ashbringer didn't vote on Day 2A. Not the obvious pick if it's just about controlling the vote. If anyone else has theories I'm all ears but for now I'll just say it's weird and move on. Ok I'm skimming over the first loop. Well mostly Day 2 since that was when everyone reacted to there being no kill. Apparently everyone thought it was optimal for the elims to lose the first loop on purpose before it went this way? Honestly I tend to agree with the elims on this one lol. An elim win with as few clears as possible seems ideal for them. And is it really that hard to pull off, considering we only had 2 votes last loop? Even if it wasn't, idk it wouldn't entirely sit right to throw things on purpose. Easy to say that's "optimal" from the outside but would you actually want to do that if you were an elim. Maybe some people would idk. In the very least I don't think TJ would be about that life though. Plus there's also just the sheer bloody-mindedness factor. I think most elims would rather defy village expectations for what they Should Do just on sheer principle I do think it's mildly indicative of a confident elim team though. Shooting for the low-info win on the first loop is technically the higher risk, higher reward option. I think you don't aim for it if one of your members is attracting suspicion and even might get voted soon. ...yeah maybe that's why they killed Ashbringer actually. Nothing to do with Ashbringer specifically, just that they were hedging. If Day 3 went badly for them they could get another kill Night 3 and there's generally less information to go around. I think that probably implies that the elims weren't all 100% under the radar. Whoever was a suspect around Day 2A and Night 2A who wasn't cleared, should probably be put back on the menu. I don't know who specifically we should look at yet though since I haven't read those turns carefully.

…no comment edit: There was no elim kill at some point yes? And nobody claimed a block on those nights? (At least, I assume I would have heard of it if somebody had. Obligatory "I don't really know what I'm talking about" but we aren't going to get anywhere if I don't share my thoughts regardless.) Not to put too fine a point on it, but why do we think the elims were driving the execution if they weren't even driving the kill that they have full control of? Yeah maybe everything can be explained by the elims playing 5D chess mindgames but is that the explanation we want to go with right off the bat? ......actually, maybe the elims just didn't want to clear as many people on the first loop, since it'd make their life harder on all the later loops okay that makes a lot of sense actually carry on.

Do you lose rupees between loops? I think with the Postman's Hat and generous donations to the Fund of Drake Is Cool (FDIC for short) it could be achieved quite a lot sooner ...oh nevermind players can spend up to 5 rupees but the postman only gets 1 regardless my pyramid scheme is dead

w- why would that help you if you're village edit: ...so, I don't really know what's going on yet but I would personally like for PMs to be a thing. I mean I'd also like to receive rupee donations naturally, the Fierce Deity Mask isn't going to buy itself now is it Is anyone getting the postman mask? Is mask decisions something we're talking about in public or are we over it. I can't think of a pressing reason not to talk about it at this time so I'm placing a bid, you lot can do what you want unrelated but Burnt I really like your signature graphic I will weigh in on Mistfallen when I have opinions about Mistfallen, which I do not currently.

Squircle gripped the odd mask with both hands, staring into its eyes dubiously. It didn't much look like a dragon, despite the Happy Mask Merchant's assurances that this was indeed an authentic "Drake" mask... Still. If there was even a chance it would restore him to his true form... Could he afford to pass that up? Well, what's the worst that could happen. It's not like it would be permanent. If the mask didn't work, he could always take it off. Squircle donned the Drake mask. Immediately his posture and mannerisms changed, almost like he was a different person. He had not turned into a dragon, and he felt a swell of disappointment at that, but something stifled the disappointment almost instantly. Curiously, he found he didn't want to remove the mask. The words leapt out of his throat unbidden. "hey @Stick. how did it feel to rand evil" there I hope ur happy smh thunder-stealer

let me write my introduction post in peace smh you menace