DrakeMarshall

if Burnt got it after all y’alls maths I reserve the right to meme on u I will note that possession of the Stone Mask is not in of itself alignment indicative, since both villagers and elims with 50+ rupees should’ve been bidding for it. However I’m also a pessimist.

I think if you’re all quite sure that Burnt and Coco both evil, then we do have to ask ourselves why zero serious attempts were made to counterwagon a villager. Food for thought.

hey look I’m around near rollover well I’m not gonna catch up in this amount of time, and I assume it won’t really make a difference if I switch my vote or not, so I’ll just let rollover happen may the hero of time have mercy on us

no guys come on the play here is we vote one elim for most of the day so the elims place their bids accordingly, but then we swap at the last second and ruin their plans

Well here's a hot take if you're an evil Burnt believer, you should maybe reread at least the tail end of Day 1B, because that was when there was briefly a wagon on Burnt Doc moved off a side train to tie Burnt with Mistfallen: This probably lowers Doc/Burnt stonks. idk what this Stick post is: Ash switches from Mist to Burnt. We know Ash is village, but this is officially when Burnt started leading the votes, so whatever comes after this is noteworthy. Araris sticks on Divergent, and also offers to join an Archer or Coco wagon: Some Araris/Burnt stonks. TUM votes Divergent. TUM is village. Coco votes Divergent, making it a tie with Burnt. Coco claims to be suspicious of both Divergent and Burnt equally, but votes Divergent anyway, based on TUM's vote. Pretty sure Burnt would win that tie if I get the tiebreak rules, though Coco explicitly claims to be unaware of who would win the tie in this same post. I would say that this post increases Coco/Burnt stonks. Ash switches from Burnt to TJ. Burnt is no longer in the lead. Ash is village. Wonko switches onto Burnt, and suspects the Divergent counterwagon developed to defend Burnt. I believe this creates a Burnt/Divergent tie again. I think Wonko/Burnt stonks are quite low, even though Burnt would've won a tie. I don't see evidence that Wonko was even thinking about tiebreaker tactics rly. Archer swaps off of Burnt onto Divergent in the name of "sheeping" While I think we should stop focusing on Archer so much, Archer/Burnt stonks do in fact exist. Ashbringer points out Burnt and Araris watching the thread I guess the tinfoil hypothesis is that e!Araris was standing by to vote if it's necessary Ash switches back onto Burnt but it doesn't shift the balance, and the day ends. Okay, so maybe Burnt Coco makes more sense than Burnt Doc. Araris/Archer/Stick all possible Burnt teammates outside of the main suspect pool, but not as relevant. I actually feel Araris looks more teamed than Archer but mileage may vary. in an evil Mistfallen world, a Mist/Doc pairing has merit edit: really quick and dirty tally cuz I was curious Coco (6) Burnt (4) Mistfallen (2)

Oh, right. Okay well I'm still voting Burnt. I still believe Burnt faked the scan result here. Coco might be evil, but contra everyone else apparently, I don't actually have any reason I think Coco is more sus than Doc. I think they're on equal footing and I'd rather take the Burnt in the hand than exe one of those other options on Day 1. By all rights Burnt is close to affording the Stone Mask. If a teammate actually bought the Mask of Scents, then she can in fact afford it right now. I just don't trust the maths that Burnt is safe to keep alive that much. And again I'm literally not convinced it's Coco and not Doc. If someone wants to spell out that case to me that would be cool. Like it totally could be Coco, I just don't have any strong feelings about that and I'm a little surprised that so many people do. I know we'll have to pull that trigger eventually. I'm sticking with Burnt for now.

yeah so 10 starting rupees + 30 for L1 + 30 for L2 + 10 for Day 1 of L3 = 80 -27 = 53, which is greater than 50 right?

oh. um? how does that work? loop 1 you could not have had 20 rupees by the end of Night 1A. oh, people can start with rupees. it doesn't look like anyone's math about how many rupees Burnt has is factoring that in though? edit: for that matter, neither is it factored into your own math about how you couldn't possibly afford the Scents Mask?

what are you claiming the Mask of Scents here? what?

absolute cinema also Aman ruled that PMing someone counts as the Postman targeting them, so another way is if 1 person PMs all the folks who might've afforded it their own unique "I don't have the stone mask" code, then whoever has it equipped can't receive that PM and will be outed but your way is probably cleaner

Stick, Wonko, or Araris could be evil I think or maybe it is pure idk or not. honestly not going to fully rule out evil Archer even, but I don't think it's the most important part of the game state to focus on with the 6-player 3-elims suspect pool and also Burnt v Mistfallen playing out. But I think you're semi aware of that since you're not voting Archer today. Even if a lot of your analysis still brings up Archer a lot oh, huh Stick, who has been pushing a burnt/mistfallen pairing name one person like am I crazy or are u just making this up It's here: was in a spoiler so not easy to find if you're skimming what is the blue mask math? Yeah, I think the Scents Mask claim entails at least one of them is definitely evil, I don't think an alternative explanation really exists I think the "default" play here is definitely to execute one of those 2 players. Some people are theorizing that evil Burnt is trying to distract for a richer teammate like Coco, which I think is sort of reasonable? But personally I think the burden of proof for voting away from the confirmed suspect pool of 2 is higher.

I don't actually think Archer is evil rn but I buy evil Coco I do think evil Burnt usually implies village Divergent, since Divergent was the counterwagon to Burnt that one time well we also don't rly know sadly because if we're all on the same page and Burnt is indeed the evil here between Burnt/Mistfallen, we don't know if Burnt bought the Scents Mask or if that was a teammate, and that could affect things a lot ...that said I assume they planned to afford purple masks today. I feel comfortable asserting the elims are powergaming the rupees, considering how a lot of the remaining suspect pool are people who have been earning well in the background, and considering I think elims probably went for the Bunny Mask early, and considering how the NKs were distributed to control village rupee supply (when killing only cleared players last loop would've certainly denied the village more info), and considering how a one-for-one trade like Burnt seems to be angling for just seems to make more sense if they expect they'll have the upper hand mechanically so I'd guess that whoever actually bought the Scents Mask, whether it was Burnt or someone else, could either afford a purple mask today even after buying a red mask last loop, or they were a teammate who wasn't particularly close to hitting the 50 rupee mark. sorry for kinda preflipping you as evil Burnt but the game suddenly made more sense when I did :/ edit: to elaborate on why I think you might be tunneled on Archer: I dunno I think the additional deaths actually made a pretty solid difference here, 3 elims in a pool of 6 players versus 3 elims in a pool of 8 players and Archer could've just not volunteered to explode and our situation this loop would be worse, like even if Archer is evil here and we mistakenly clear him he is leaving his 3 teammates noticeably more exposed by doing that plus to me it reads like they didn't rly want to kill confirmed players last loop, they were forced to react and pick a lower info kill N3 but that was a break in their previous doctrine, because the explosion wasn't their idea Araris also gets some credit for this, I think, but not quite as much since he proposed the plan to avoid getting voted out but he was probably dying either way

yeah so Doc/Burnt seems like it's a thing at least I say we start there I actually think Coco claiming Bremen L1 with no counterclaim is a slight positive, because it sure does sound like an elim took Bunny Mask L1 and isn't fessing up, so that's a narrower suspect pool right there and Bunny Mask is a mask that is only attractive to people who are earning big, since a 1.5x multiplier is no good if you're not earning anything to begin with so realistically Doc/Burnt/Mistfallen are the decent Loop 1 Bunny Mask candidates Doc also imo fills out the missing "evil tactician" slot if we're still insisting on that profile, and like Burnt has been earning rupees with a seemingly lighter thread presence Doc/Burnt team doesn't agree with Wonko's theory about postman connectives but Doc was the one who supplied the postman data >> edit: oh, right, Doc was postman on L1 so 1 of Burnt/Mistfallen probably had the Bunny Mask L1 well, thanks PoE >> I already knew one of them was evil edit 2: tbh there is also a world where the elims were more willing to pursue the L1 victory because elim Coco got Bremen mask and they had vote manip in their back pocket if they ever needed

oh cool cool I'm alive very exciting I feel like I finally have some semblance of an idea of what's going on, it's amazing what a little bit of real information can accomplish we're probably going to lose anyways, tbh. but let's talk: not to belabor the extremely obvious, but at least one of Mistfallen and Burnt must be evil contra Araris and Archer, I'm also going to assert that at most one of Mistfallen and Burnt is evil. From where I'm standing, executing both of them looks like a pretty reasonable idea. If this is E/E and we do that, then the elims just lose the next 2 loops, straight up. And it was completely unforced, they initiated this exchange. And their best-case-scenario in this world still included 1 elim death, in exchange for a single dubious clear. I do think they're observant enough to notice this. I don't think they're brave enough to play 6D chess and do it anyways. Sorry, but only I'm that unhinged. So I think this is exactly one elim in <Mistfallen, Burnt>. Either village!Burnt got lucky and tracked the elim kill to elim!Mistfallen. I'd kind of like for this to be true, since it would validate my negative reads there for most of the game. Or elim!Burnt is aggressively pushing for the final win with village!Mistfallen as the first victim. Honestly a priori this just seems more likely than Burnt getting lucky. A few random observations: Burnt did not cough up a second scan result until asked for one, which is a small detail but one I don't really love. If there's a loop the elims should aggressively push to win, it's this one. As previously mentioned, if Burnt is evil, this was premeditated, and it has surely occurred to the elims that "exe both players" is a likely response. I mean, I assume the elims would be happy to see us kill Mistfallen and spare Burnt. And they may have thought there was a chance of that happening, considering Stick and myself have been throwing mad shade at Mistfallen. But I don't believe they'd bet the farm on it. If evil Burnt, village Mistfallen, does it make sense? Is there a good elim path to victory here that doesn't come down to just "hope they do exactly what we want lol"? I actually think there are several. A 1-for-1 trade during the first two days puts everything on Day 3. If the elims push through a bad vote on D3, they win. No matter what dirty tricks they use, no matter if they out their entire team by hammering. If the elims are rich, and they probably are since they haven't been dying, the odds look even better for them. The Stone Mask and Keaton Mask can both utterly wreck our LyLo situation. For that matter, if we happened to resolve our 1-for-1 exchange with Mistfallen getting voted out first, I'm pretty sure it's decently possible Burnt could have the funds to make a bid for the Stone Mask in the meantime, which would also usually be a win for the elims. I think Burnt has been doing a good job of earning a lot of rupees, without a very strong presence in discussion as far as I can remember. I think every elim kill or lack thereof so far has been deliberate. This is the closest I've seen for a good explanation for the Ashbringer kill existing: I think I've solved my own murder! It didn't really make much sense at the time, but it was about rupees. I would've had at least 50 rupees this loop otherwise. Now I've only got 20. Killing a confirmed villager instead of me would've given the elims 50 rupees, and let me keep my 50 rupees. This way they prevented both of those, which is pretty relevant if my guess about the evil path to victory is correct. In conclusion, and I know this is crazy, but what I'm feeling rn is we kill Burnt and not Mistfallen (edit: probably follow that up by killing the wealthier loop 2 survivors, but I don't have any idea who those are off the top of my head) (edit 2: I think Hael is still village here, though if someone wants to reassess the D3A case they're welcome to it. Also don't think Hael is going to afford a purple mask. If true, and if I'm not wrong about Mistfallen v Burnt, exing 3 out of Burnt/Coco/Doc/TwinStorm should be sufficient to save the loop. Assuming the elims don't mechanically overpower anyways with fancy masks.) Killing the scanner and leaving the accused alive is a certifiably insane thing to do but I blame Aman for the rules honestly

I feel like Araris is playing differently than I remember but not in a way that I personally find suspicious I'm feeling the pain of flipless rn because usually yesterday's flip would give me something to think about during the night but we have to wait until the end of the loop for results and unlike LG92 there are few info abilities But we'll improve with each loop, hopefully. "I didn't really want to go down there anyway," Squircle admitted. "Lead the way, little one." He set out following after the tiny fairy. "The sun's almost up," Squircle noticed. "The way things are going, I predict something is about to explode."

Next, Squircle threw a handful of dirt at the invisible platform. He was going to take this slow and steady, covering the platforms in dirt until they were clearly visible. Unfortunately, the dirt just blew away in the wind. He was thinking about what to try next, when a Deku in a green cap emerged and started spitting seeds off the cliff rapidly. "Hey, I was here first," Squircle accused. "Where did you come from?" She didn't respond or hesitate, spitting seeds even faster. It was clear she was scanning for those invisible platforms. Then she backed up and got a running start and did the unthinkable and jumped off the cliff. The invisible platform held her up. Squircle was speechless for a moment. He found his voice when she jumped to the next platform, then the next. She was making alarming progress up towards the floating island. "Hey! Wait up, I say! That's my secret floating isla--" Everything exploded. Squircle staggered back, dazed, ears ringing, the afterimage burning in his eyes. When he recovered, he looked up and found the island gone. The hero, too, was gone. "You know, on second thought, you can have it," he muttered. He peered over the edge of the cliff, sighing. "I suppose someone had better go have a look around down there."

Would I lie to you?

Araris claimed to have the mask? well then you’re both liars lol

Afaik the vote is compulsive, we have no masks that can kill in play other than the Blast Mask which isn’t targeted like that, and I don’t rly feel comfortable assuming we won a loop until Aman confirms it

The fire was crackling merrily. Squircle cheered, then immediately spat out a curse as the wind turned and the smoke got blown in his face. Then he noticed something odd. Above empty space, the smoke was getting turned aside by... something. It was like it was hitting an invisible pane of force in mid-air. "That shouldn't be there," Squircle noted. He threw a rock at it. It bounced off the invisible platform. "Well, this bears investigating."

If I had to choose between Araris and Coco at the moment I would go with Araris. But I'd prefer TJ or Mistfallen over either of those options.

Squircle sat on the outskirts of the Goron Village, huddled around a small pile of twigs. The sun was finishing its journey towards the horizon. Far overhead, the Lone Peak Shrine glowed faintly. It was good he'd held onto the torch from the tunnels. He threw it on the pile. It wasn't lit, but it would kindle easily. He struck flint, once, twice, thrice. Finally a spark, but it didn't catch. He kept on trying. He figured a nice bonfire was in order. I don't know what the Default Elim Play is, but I can at least say that I personally have sussed people right before killing them multiple times as an evil role. And not everything I do to look village is something I bring up to 'show' people. ...I dunno. Do you have other examples? If people village read Mistfallen I'd like to understand it, but this example isn't doing it for me. The closest I got to village reading Mistfallen was when I realized Mistfallen's Blast Mask idea wasn't necessarily anti-village, but even then it was mainly just "okay that particular thing isn't elim indicative actually" which is not really the stuff trust reads are made of. Anyways. Remind me why we're voting Coco? TJ, didn't your big analysis post conclude Burnt is evil in most worlds? Does a Coco/Burnt team even make sense today? Coco was pretty happy to jump on the Burnt wagon earlier today and it did not look like bussing to me. I feel like there's a chance I'll regret not voting Mistfallen today but I want TJ slightly more unfortunately I don't really know what's happening so sorry if I'm wrong

"Oh thank goodness. Somewhere comfortable," Squircle sighed in relief. "Welcome to the Twin Island Hot Springs, Goro," a bouncer said. Squircle rushed forwards, but the Goron stopped him at the verge. "You are welcome here, for a modest entrance fee." "Entrance fee? How much?" Squircle asked, suspicious. "Fifty rupees." Squircles eyes widened. "That's robbery! I'll give you ten," he counteroffered. "There is no haggling for this pool, Goro. Pay up or leave." They argued back and forth, Squircle growing increasingly indignant, and the Gorons unyielding as stone. "Fine! I don't need your stupid overpriced hot spring!" he shook his fist at the Goron. "I'll find somewhere better, and then you lot will be sorry." Squircle walked away in a huff, shivering. I don't know if that's exactly accurate but that's fair because I'm confused and haven't been saying all one thing rn I'm feeling more village on Archer, and suspect Mist more than Stick, but idk even I like that TJ is focusing more on analysis now, but a cynical part of me notes that this effort didn't get spent until I pushed to get TJ voted out over it, and it probably doesn't help that we have really different reads lol mood

Suddenly, a snowdrift collapsed as something shifted underneath it. A hand forced open a trap door, and a masked face poked out. "Did you miss me?" Squircle asked. "Oh, nobody's here. Well, it looks like we made it outside of town." He extricating himself from the hole, and a few other townsfolk followed. He shivered. Wherever they had ended up, it was frigid. And he was pretty sure some of the tunnels had collapsed behind him, so there was no turning back. "Well, time to settle in," he said with forced cheer. "Wherever this is. Let's take a look around." He wandered off, humming a jaunty tune. Honestly I think at least one of the people voting you today is evil, assuming you're not. While TJ has furnished different reasoning to suspect you at this point, that came after the main wave of votes on you. The main reason I saw at the time was that the train on you got outvoted at the end of yesterday. Which is a weird reason for a train to develop imo, especially when it's not all the same people voting you today as it was yesterday. If you're village that's also actually interesting because it means all the elims were voting on D3A, if my read of that vote is at all right. Makes me wonder if one or more of the side trains at least was evil, bc I still don't think Hael was evil but maybe something else was making the elims care about that vote. also it's probably the case that exactly one of Mistfallen or Stick is evil tbh There you go that's some suspect pools I guess

why would you ask for that while deconsolidating your own vote