DrakeMarshall

fine then I will speak the truth this is actually an all evils game, with multiple elim docs unaware of each other that's why it had to be flipless, so we wouldn't figure it out

TwinStorm do y'all have a dead doc today? I mean you have a dead Doc today but I'm sure that pun has made the rounds before anyways good analysis post Stick here's some more of my own analysis, sorry if the formatting is a bit off: "Well done, traveler," the Great Fairy intoned. "Time has been restored to its linear form." "Thank you?" Squircle replied, uncertain. He did definitely remember being in the time loop. He was just finding it hard to recall what he did during most of the previous loops, or how the cycle ended. "It would not have been possible to complete your journey, otherwise," the Great Fairy explained patiently. "You would just keep coming back here again, when everything reset." "Ah," Squircle said. That made sense. "However, I am still greatly weakened, and it is difficult to return you home in this state. I am torn asunder, scattered throughout the land. Perhaps if you had gathered up the stray fairies, things would be different..." she mourned. "Er, sorry about that," Squircle said, still unsure he remembered doing or not doing any of these things the fairy was talking about. "Perhaps there is another way," the Fairy mused, looking at Squircle assessingly. "But it will not be free. Would you bargain with me, traveler?" "What would you take from me?" Squircle asked, suddenly guarded. He would listen to her offer, though. Unless there was something he was missing, he could always change his mind and go hunting for stray fairies if he didn't like the deal. "The mask you hold in your hands, it has just enough power. Give it to me, and I will use it to send you home."

Long ago, I was once pocketed by Doc Aman was the GM in that game too.

alright, bonus round: I think Coco feels village partly because Coco getting executed before Burnt last loop was supported by elim agenda (sure, we know this elim team is full of bus-drivers, but it was Day 1 so not the best time for bussing, and the fakeclaim gambitry strongly suggests the elims were sprinting for a win) partly because I interacted with Coco in the dead doc, and I guess she just had villagery vibes Also, I kinda think the elim slip I noticed from Hoid Slayer when I first joined the game was real. end bonus round

You fools, you fell for my ploy to distance myself from my teamate Stick! Maybe one day we'll be teammates for real, that might be fun. Doc. Squircle slipped away from the crowd, whistling a jaunty tune as the din of arguments faded in the distance. Things were winding down. "All shall be well," he pronounced. A tiny fairy circled lazily overhead. "I take my leave." Squircle unveiled a tunnel entrance, the location remembered from a time that no longer was, and stepped in. Down, down, into the innermost parts of the earth. He finally emerged into a room that was incongruous with the surroundings, well-lit and pristine. A fountain hidden away from the world. The tiny fairy dove into the fountain without a second thought. "This is the place," he realized. "The space fairies are never wrong." Something was stirring. There was... a presence, here. "Perhaps you can help. Squircle needs to go home," he said, then he removed the Drake mask. Squircle looked around, suddenly disoriented. This is a Great Fairy Fountain, he realized. Perhaps the Great Fairy could take him home, if her power were restored. The memories of how he got here felt distant and hazy.

all roads lead there eventually, if you pursue them all the way, I suppose you unironically Al Caponed Doc and caught him doing tax fraud TUM will be jealous you mean it's not from Duolingo? I legit thought it was

oh well, I think you're correct and smart then it's not easy to change your mind, and I do actually appreciate that we hashed out reasons for different elim teams

um no Hael had a pretty significant lead for a lot of the day take a look at Aman's tally with 9 hours to go, Hael had 8 votes and nobody else had more than 1 but if we think the elims were online at the end of the day then the vote not being close at the end is what matters Whatever the case, this feels like quibbling. What's your takeaway from it? If we suppose you're correct and the vote was close, does that mean the elims wanted Stick to get executed? Does that mean Stick is village? You might have a difficult time convincing me of that Right, Keaton is 50 rupees, I forgot. Thought it was 20 for some reason. Okay, then Doc probably did commit tax fraud. I'm still not really concerned about it either way, because in my view there's just much bigger reasons why Doc is evil and Hael is village, that I feel you're ignoring. If your sense of proportionality doesn't agree, then I guess we'll just have to put it to a vote, sorry.

I'll note that the Day 3C vote wasn't close. It spent most of the day not being close, either one way or the other. That means the Keaton mask probably wasn't ever going to sway the outcome. I tend to think it probably wasn't intended to, in that case. If we feel the manipulation came from an elim, it's honestly anyone's guess what mindgame they were going for. If it came from a villager, then they probably just used it for the sake of using it, or maybe to defend against hammers or other last minute changes. It's strange they haven't spoken up, but I think that's still plausible right now. The whereabouts of the Keaton Mask is an interesting question but I'm not sure it changes my suspicions. If the evils have it, is there any reason it couldn't just be Stick? For the above reason, I don't think it's actually too crazy that E!Stick might move a vote onto E!Stick. Anyways I'll be back in a little while. I think I've mostly said my piece so maybe I'll catch up on the RP scene. I can aspire at least.

No, he couldn't. Not if he had previously spent the rupees he'd be using to go for silver on something else. and can we rly say it's the wrong choice to spend those rupees earlier I mean sure we know with hindsight bias that Doc would survive long enough to maybe buy silver but Doc certainly didn't know that during the middle of Loop 2 alternatively, Doc lied somewhere else about his finances people lie about finances in real life and it isn't always obvious Numbers are every bit as capable of lying as words I have a billion rupees Maybe what you mean to say is that math doesn't lie, but math is only as good as the assumptions it rests upon. That's why any seriously fancy math is ridiculously disciplined about explaining which assumptions it uses. I didn't agree with the assumptions people made when trying to calculate Burnt's rupees. I see a lot of the same assumptions being made when it comes to calculating Doc's rupees. Why should I believe the results are any more robust? I'm a pretty mathy person I'm not saying any of this because I don't believe in math I just don't believe in this math. it doesn't really matter, Doc isn't Al Capone and I don't need to catch him doing tax fraud. Maybe he really is telling the truth about his finances for all I know, I don't really care. I just need to prove he's a lot less trustworthy than Hael

guess I'm a fugitive now

unless he bought the Mask of Scents instead of Burnt why do y'all keep assuming the elims wouldn't just lie about things yeah because anyone who died knows how the postmaster works

your "I've never been killed" privilege is showing Aman doesn't confirm the postmaster identity, but let me just say I'm quite certain it was Hael, if that carries any weight for you. We talked quite a bit in that doc. the mechanics of this game make my head hurt why do we think anyone bought Keaton during L3? was there a Keaton vote manip? sorry I'm out of it but I'm fairly sure I understand the game state well enough to know who to vote for

oh I missed that well okay I agree that doesn't prove Doc is an elim but it's not the greatest look is it edit: aaaa ninja'd by wahr edit2: apparently this is the 100th reply to this thread. congratulations l u c k y w i n n e r

because the genre of the previous loop was "twin stick shooter"

hey do y'all like arcade games

oh right I was dead forgot about that for a second, on account of being so gloriously alive also I guess there was no kill last night, so we didn't actually need 2 elims to win the loop (edit: ...though, we can assume the elims probably would've submitted a kill if doing so would've made the difference between them winning and losing. Or Doc would've Great Fairy Masked, or something. Would the Bremen holder like to claim a roleblock last night?) okay I will magnanimously concede that Archer's elim team isn't physically impossible I will not concede anything more than that about it though you're so right Stick

Due to a combination of factors, I reckon my brother in the Ja, if it were this elim team, then the elims would have won the last loop any game's a blackout if you don't bother reading the rules

Okay but the point of the information, the reason why Wonko was interested in it in the first place, was because players that PMed each other weren't as likely to be elim teammates. If Doc can fake the existence of PMs between elim teammates, even if he can't fake any other kind of PM, that still completely invalidates the thing that made the data useful. The elims benefit from the village lacking information, but they benefit even more from the village having incorrect information. I'll also note that my analysis of Doc's info suggested that Burnt was village. She was not. This isn't hard proof he fudged the data, but it doesn't inspire confidence either. (Edit: also, if y'all were working from incorrect info about how many PMs Burnt had, that is one plausible explanation for why y'all predicted Burnt couldn't afford the Stone Mask when in reality she could. She was supposedly only a few rupees short, so if she paid slightly less for PMs than Doc reported, that explains it. I tend to think "a teammate bought the Mask of Scents" is also a very plausible explanation, but if you're in the camp that Burnt didn't lie about being the one to buy the Mask of Scents, then Doc committing fraud on her behalf is probably the next best explanation for what was going on there.) And never sharing any information has risks of its own for an elim. well, if it's not anything extra, then Doc doesn't deserve any extra village cred for it! And if he never revealed the postmaster had the capability, if a villager ever got their hands on that 5 rupee mask, they'd wonder why not. He still didn't volunteer the maybe actually useful part on his own, though. Anyways, it's like the averages thing I was saying before. I do think villagers are more likely to share more useful bits of true information more often than elims, on average. If Doc had shared more information, and if we could verify that more of it was true, then maybe I'd agree with you that he deserves real village cred for it. But sharing a single piece of info and one that I don't even particularly believe is true doesn't rly earn any brownie points from me. edit2: to sharpen the point a little, did any of Doc's info help us execute an elim? because Hael's info resulted in executing an elim. And considering how hard it was to get Stick voted out I don't rly think the elims wanted it to happen. That's what we're comparing against. if Doc should be read as village for sharing some info that didn't really go anywhere to the best of my knowledge, then Hael should be village read even more strongly and if the information Hael provided yesterday isn't worth trusting him about, then Doc sharing the PM info probably isn't worth talking about unless there's something more that differentiates the two cases, as far as "sharing useful info with the village" goes, Hael's got Doc beat. That's my two cents anyhow. Perhaps you feel everything you've seen points to that, but we have a problem, because I don't feel that way at all about anything I've seen. If you want this line of thought to be transmissible to me, you're going to have to be more specific. If I'm being more forceful than I usually would be, I'm sorry. Probably a side-effect of being sidelined in the dead doc yesterday, and wanting so badly to be able to intervene at certain points in time I'm not sure we'll converge on believing the same (hopefully correct) things about who the elims are but we can both try at least

So he's village because he did something he didn't have to do? I'm sorry but I don't think that distinguishes elims from villagers. Can you spell out to me how evil Doc sharing this information harms the elims, or otherwise doesn't make sense? Bear in mind that 1) Doc could slip in some fake PM connections between elims to strengthen his teams overall position, 2) he gets to appear helpful by sharing the information, and 3) he was asked to share the information and it would look a little odd if he refused. Is it not alignment indicative, or is it less likely to come from an elim? Pick a lane The village doesn't have a monopoly on foresight. The fact that the operation was planned ahead has very little bearing on Doc's alignment as far as I'm concerned. I do agree that the foresight means Doc's claim cannot have been originally invented to contest Hael's scan result against Stick. In any case, I certainly don't think we can assert that elims would inherently be less likely to claim scan results compared to villagers. Burnt already did exactly that. Furthermore, such an elim playstyle is heavily encouraged in this ruleset, since there are no flips. The existence of the claim does not seem especially indicative to me. It is the contents of the claim that I take exception with. All the scan establishes is that one of Doc or Hael must be evil. The scan itself does not tell us which. We must use other evidence to sort that out. I will beat this dead horse for as long as it takes. Even if y'all have forgotten about the first loop, or you've decided it's no longer relevant for some reason, Hael looks quite village from Day 3A. The elims committed hard to pushing for a win on that loop, then absolutely everyone shrugged when Hael was up for execution for most of the day. I cannot explain this to a satisfactory degree if Hael is evil. You are welcome to try and explain it yourself. If you can explain the events of that day to my satisfaction, that would be reasonably convincing to me. Just telling me that I'm putting too much faith in this inference is not convincing to me though That's just brushing aside evidence that doesn't agree with your worldview and I don't think that's the road to enlightenment. As it stands, I genuinely believe that this alone is a sufficient reason to execute Doc over Hael and not lose any sleep about it. On the other hand, I do not think any such reason exists to village read Doc, which is actually remarkable considering he's been more active than Hael and has been quite strategic with his rupees earnings. You would expect him to be commensurately more readable as village, but he isn't, as far as I'm concerned. I was already converging on Doc as an elim just from the suspect pool of 6, because I think there are stronger reasons to village read other members. A pool of just <Hael, Doc> makes the job easier. It has also been stated multiple times throughout the game that the elims must have good thread control. While Hael did step up yesterday, I think it's fair to say he did it out of necessity, not because he wanted to be in that position. I believe Doc fits the thread controller profile better than Hael. I also personally believe the elims have been very intentional with managing rupees. Burnt's play with the Stone Mask supports this. The fact that they mostly avoided killing confirmed players during the second loop also supports this: it's strictly worse for the elims in terms of what information is revealed, but it's better for them in terms of controlling the rupees. However, there's no point in denying rupees to some dead villagers unless the elims are wealthy enough to capitalize on it. Again, Hael doesn't really fit that profile, while Doc does. There is also the fact that Hael relayed all of my information truthfully, but more on that later. What does that have to do with his alignment? I don't even think we do know that, not for sure, but the above question is the important one. I'm not sure he did, when he first made the claim. At the time everyone was voting against Hael. It certainly wasn't obvious to me that popular sentiment would be against Doc, and I think he's hella evil. More to the point, we've already agreed that Doc's claim was prepared ahead of time, so he had to claim that day regardless. Unless you believe the elims accurately predicted for the roleblock considerations multiple turns in advance. I don't. If Hael is village, then it very nearly didn't. Hael very nearly got executed, and that's the opposite of costing them the loop. I'm absolutely certain on the other hand that revealing a green scan on Hael would cost them the loop. Because the only sane course for the village at that point would be executing Stick, who is evil. And those were really his only 2 options. Again, he set this up ahead of time. He had promised a scan result on Hael, and he had to deliver. Maybe, but unless you think there were already 2 dead elims, they could have literally won the entire game by voting off a villager, no need to worry about the next loop. Seems pretty fatalistic to start throwing the loop because you might lose it, when ultimate victory is so close. I don't really think that's the mindset of the elim team that refuses to throw and goes for the win on Loop 1 even though it's riskier. I don't really think that's the mindset of the elim team that comes up with Burnt faking a scan on you in order to aggressively push for an L3 win, either. And fundamentally, either we think that helping get Stick voted out is legitimately worth village cred, or it isn't. If it's legitimately worth village cred, then Hael legitimately deserves village cred, full stop. You don't get to say "well then Hael must be EVIL, because evils want village cred, so doing villagery things is EVIL." Yes it's possible, but it isn't probable. We have to assume that on average, helping the village is a thing that villagers do more often and more substantially than elims.

I don't! Doc is clearly evil imo, and Hael is clearly village. I was village reading Heal and suspecting Doc even before I died. Everything that happened after has only strengthened both views for me. Tell you what. I'll work on writing up the case for why my elim team is correct. You do the same for yours. We'll see who convinces the other. In the meantime, we have 2 elims we both agree on voting out, so we have some time to deliberate about the third. Apologies, but I do not agree to that. We must execute 3 elims. In my estimation, that's probably only 2. I believe Burnt and Stick should be voted out, but that third vote we are probably going to disagree on. If we believe elims NKing teammates is ever a reasonable strategy in this setup, then I don't see why we should believe that elims proactively voting for teammates isn't. And if you're going to vote each other, Day 3 is a good day to do it. Or to put it another way, if you're going into a Day 3 with zero teammates in the dead doc, why wouldn't you do it? You're already guaranteed to win the loop. At that point, sowing confusion and creating distance between teammates is really the only meaningful thing your vote can do. Besides, if you are convinced that Burnt and Stick are both evil, then that pair has already voted each other proactively. That's hard evidence that this elim team had more appetite for it than you'd expect in most normal games. Is it really that hard to countenance E!Doc doing the same thing?

Sensible. If they did I would have suggested going for Doc, but in that case, Burnt. Quite well. I am relieved he got through to you all in the end.

the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated but Stick did stab me yes I'm pretty confident at this point that the elim team is Burnt, Stick, Doc, and TwinStorm I'd accept swapping out TwinStorm with Coco, but imo it's really just TwinStorm. We only need 3 in any case so it's kinda moot. I have a great deal of respect for how the elims played this game, but I am not planning on pulling my punches for the finale. do masks exist in this final day inverted?

I am free! y'all had me pretty worried there time to open the loop with a celebratory Mistfallen vote

I’m glad u like coal cuz that’s probably what u get in ur stocking