DrakeMarshall

Lord Pending careened out of the Stalehouse. "Y'know, haffa the reashon I trust you in the second day in the first place's 'cause your actions jusht seemed preeetty left field t'me if you're a shpiked Lurcher," he slurred, looking in Rem's general direction. "An' if I hadn't heard you'd claimed Lurcher, I'd actually been plannin' to pull the ol' fake-sheeker ploy on you, claiming t'have figured you out as a shpiked Thug, 'stead of goin' after Sirta like I did. Wonder how it would've gone," Lord Pending appeared lost in thought. "Anywaysh, I've thought 'bout it, an... If you're a Thug, I still basically believe you're spiked." "An' for that matter, if we're to believe one o' the Thugs oughtta be shpiked... Seems likely that whoever that ish is somebody I trust more than you." "So 'm still voting for ya." He waved his cane at Rem in a poor impression of fencing moves. "You wan' a piece a me? Have at ya, ya hoodlum."

"I'm not talking about your reasons, I'm talking about Onon's. Also mine, if it matters. Analysis based on abilities certainly wasn't the only reason to hang Sono, but it also certainly wasn't an insignificant one. Whether or not you think that, I'm convinced that Onon did. And that's a serious problem for your story, because you are claiming that Onon knowingly decided to spread this deception." Lord Pending shook his head. "One of us is revising history here, on that we can most certainly agree." "...And all I have is your word for it. Because Onon is dead. Therein lies our problem," Lord Pending lamented. "Huffing firemoss or not, I find it very hard to swallow that Onon would do this. It seems inconsistent with many other things he said." Lord Pending opened his mouth to respond, then shut it, interrupted by Jorrick's timely arrival. He pinched his temples again and let out a long breath. "Well then. That settles it, I suppose. Unless both of you are spiked, there's no questioning this testimony." "And I fully believe Onon would confide in you about something of this sort, if he truly was running a con." "Odds are, you've actually been speaking the truth, then," he pointed at Rem. Lord Pending shook his head in disgust and started walking slowly towards the Stalehouse. "I need a drink and some time to think." "Don't get ideas about my suddenly trusting you now or anything," he growled out. "Just because I believe you're probably telling the truth about this doesn't necessarily mean I trust you."

Sorry Illwei for advising Archer to saddle someone with the lone wolf life from the get go Tbf you won though and I stand by it being more balanced than 2 elims for this specific setup. (Also more swingy. That was the tradeoff. 1 elim was better balance, 2 elims was better levels of swinginess.) Anyways well played o7 This game looked neat, I like things that experiment with voting like this.

"To verify, based on those reasons you believed me to be 'almost certainly spiked' last night?" "And do you still hold that belief today? If not, what has changed? If yes, then why not vote for me?" "Not that I want you to vote for me," Lord Pending said hastily. "But I'm honestly puzzled. If you are indeed a loyal member of Copper's Bend, changing your reads without showing your work makes it rather harder for me to tell, I suppose. And if you're spiked, then it follows that your votes are based more on convenience than on conviction, and your behavior more or less falls within the profile." "I have sent you a message containing the truth on the matter. You can share it with everyone if you want, or not." Lord Pending pinched his temples, feeling an immediate and dire headache. "Tha- That can't be true." He sounded uncertain and slightly angry. "If Onon did something like that, then his ploy ran significantly longer than mine did, likely inflicted greater amounts of derailment on Copper's Bend given it was half the reason we unjustly executed Sono, and... As far as I can tell, didn't have anything useful to show for it. At least I obtained a solid reason to trust Sirta out of my fake seeker mess." "It isn't even obvious to me how telling this lie even succeeds at directing the kill anywhere helpful, but supposing it did, that would still be a weak reason to sow such a damaging deception." "I really don't think he'd do that. You're lying." "Even just last night, he was proceeding with analysis about you on the assumption that you were a Lurcher. He was clearly grappling with it and rethinking things based on it. It's there in his notes." Lord Pending brandished a scrap of paper. "I'm not even sure Onon could have lied to Copper's Bend like that, even if he'd had a good reason to. And I don't see a reason that holds water." Lord Pending sighed. "You're lying through your teeth right now, I think. It takes a liar to know a liar, I suppose," Lord Pending made a crooked smile. "And the way I see it, the only fair reason to lie about this is because you're spiked, isn't it?" he mused. "You saw that you'd miscalculated and that we clearly didn't want to believe in two innocent Lurchers... So you just decided to change your claim." Lord Pending shook his head slowly. He would have prefered to hang a Thug, all else being equal. But it wasn't equal anymore. He was confident that Rem was spiked. Well, fairly confident. More confident than he was about Dasenk, in any case. It would have to be good enough. One thing was for certain and that was that Copper's Bend couldn't survive any waffling right now. His fingers turned white as he clutched his cane like a weapon. "Rem, let's settle this honorably, shall we?"

Lord Pending gestured at the list of red marks below Dasenk's name on the paper tacked to the wall. "I listed plenty of reasons last night," he said blandly. "Whereas as far as I can tell, you have no prior reasoning of your own against Rem. Maybe you agree with mine," Lord Pending said, pointing at the paper again and the red marks under Rem's name, "But you can't easily do that while ignoring your own section, I figure." "If your main reason for voting today is to make yourself look better and give me second thoughts..." Lord Pending sighed. "That's a pretty good reason to suspect you right there."

After a thoughtful pause, Lord Pending spoke up again. "Hrm. Let's review the numbers for a moment." "There are six of us left in Copper's Bend, excluding the mayor of course. I don't trust that the mayor will be of very much help," Lord Pending said loftily. "I am going to make explicit my assumption that there are two spiked. This assumption seems eminently reasonable to me. If there were three spiked, Copper's Bend would already be lost, no two ways about it. If there were one, well, then we'll likely have the chance to cross that bridge when we get to it. A lone spiked probably indicates that one of the Thugs is guilty. Or maybe Sirta, but I don't believe in it. But again, we'll likely have the chance to cross that bridge when we get to it." "So. Assuming four innocents and two spiked... If we hang the wrong person today, that puts us at three innocents and two spiked, at which point the spiked will probably kill another innocent, and our numbers will be evenly matched. Once that happens, Copper's Bend will be lost." "On the other hand, if we hang a Thug today, it stands to reason that if the rumors about such abilities are correct, the Thug will survive. We will still have four innocents and two spiked. At which point, the spiked will probably kill another innocent. At which point, we will at least still have three innocents against two spiked. We will still at least in theory have a fighting chance, if we can unanimously agree on who the spiked are and fight them." "Of course, that probably won't work if the spiked turn out to be tougher than expected. Say, if one of them was a Thug, and not the one we already hung. Thugs are said to fight with the ferocity of two regular people. I don't think three of us would be enough to face down two spiked, if the spiked had a Thug on their side and we didn't." Lord Pending tacked on some more paper below his outline of suspicions, drew a large plus-sign breaking the paper up into four sections, and started writing. "In conclusion, the most important thing at this juncture is obviously to hang a spiked." "That said, all else held equal, it may actually be safer to hang a Thug. The only way this dooms us is if one of the 2 Thugs is indeed spiked, but we get it wrong and hang the innocent one." "What do you all think?" EDIT: Lord Pending sighed. The spiked were killing all the loudest people. He didn't have much confidence that anyone who wasn't spiked would answer his question anytime soon. "Fine," he grunted. "I'll decide myself." "While I think that Rem looks very evil, it is technically safer for us to go after a suspicious Thug than a suspicious Lurcher. Even if the spiked don't have any Thugs, this is still the case, because at least it buys us some time." "Therefore, my vote is for Dasenk. Dasenk is almost equally suspicious as Rem, but has the distinction that Dasenk actually might well be a Thug."

"My vote is for Rem," Lord Pending declared. "You've gambled your last, if I have anything to say about it. Surrender and face my lordly justice." Lord Pending could never be said to have cut an intimidating figure. He was slight of frame and didn't stand up straight most of the time. His silken clothes, while tattered and worn, gave him the air of a city-dwelling fop. But right now, his eyes were seething. "While I don't insist on there being a spiked Lurcher... There doesn't necessarily have to be one if, for instance, there's a spiked Thugs running around... There are reasons to suspect you of conspiring against Copper's Bend above and beyond the whims of the mists. As I have already enumerated," he gestures to the wall behind him, which still had the paper tacked onto it. Rem's name was crowded with red marks. "I've gone back and forth on you for a while, now. But eventually, the red marks pile up. A reckoning will not be postponed indefinitely." "Also, all else held equal, I'd rather we attempt to hang somebody who would actually die. Hanging a Thug is a commitment!" Lord Pending exclaimed. And if there's no avoiding it, I for one would rather commit to it as late as possible, when we have as much information as possible. Because if we get it wrong, it will cost us greatly."

"I allowed a tie because I didn't know ties didn't kill anyone and was at peace with risking a brush with death if you really thought that was your best suspicion." "The rest of you all who were around allowed a tie because you were stubborn and insisted it was somebody else's job to compromise." "Anyways, I" -- correctly, apparently! Lord Pending thought ruefully -- "believed in Sono's innocence at the time, and wasn't all that invested in guaranteeing the death of a potential village Lurcher as opposed to it being a coin toss." "In light of the fact that the first day's vote was a tie between two innocents" -- something they couldn't know for sure, but oh well -- "it seems worth considering that the spiked might not have cared about it all that much. Hasn't it been said that quite a few people were content to let it be? I'd say that supports this view. I don't think it's a particularly novel take to say that some of the people who weren't invested in intervening in that tie are very likely to be spiked. And I'd say a priori at least it looks worse for the people who weren't on the chopping block to not intervene." Lord Pending sighed. Clearly, ignoring the points against him and hoping they went away as people thought about it some more was the wrong take. A cynical person would say that this was evidence of complacency or malice amongst the people who wanted him dead, but... That was fundamentally an unproductive line of reasoning. Maybe they hadn't done enough work to actually examine the facts, or maybe Pending himself hadn't done enough work to inspire trust. Arguing about it wouldn't put them any closer to finding spiked. "Let's do a little exercise." "Quite a lot has been said about whether or not I am spiked. Quite a lot of volume." It was ironic that the man with an injured wrist was putting the rest of them to shame. "This is a trick employed by street vendors in Khlennium. They would prepare great clay vats of soup and have them on display. They would glaze and decorate the outside, and prepare all manner of appetizing fare to be seen floating on top. Nothing is better to warm you on a winter night," Lord Pending reminisced. "The thing is, sometimes the soup's mostly rainwater." It was more common in the days before Khlennium's ascent to power, granted. "It can be hard to tell exactly how much actual meat and flavor is in the soup, at a glance." "Of course, if you really wanted to know for sure, you could boil it down. If it's mostly water, then you won't be left with much after the boiling. If it's a rich and fortifying broth, on the other hand, you'll have an even thicker and meatier broth after the boiling. So... Boil your arguments down, if you want me to respond to them, that is. Show me that it isn't all rainwater. I'd say that if you have the time to make long arguments in the first place, you've probably got the time to summarize, because if you have a coherent point already the summarizing shouldn't take much time at all." "This doesn't just go for the points against me, mind. I find it's a useful exercise for anyone." "And I'll take my own advice." Lord Pending waved for his driver to fetch some butcher paper and some tacks. He pinned the paper up against the wall, next to the dried beer-stain, and started writing an outline.

"What? This makes no sense! Surely we just haven't searched thoroughly enough for a spike on the body," Lord Pending blustered. "Surely we just need to check again." If Sonoluminescence wasn't spiked, then the number of mistakes Copper's Bend could afford to make had just gotten very small, particularly if one of the Thugs was spiked. The odds didn't look very good for Copper's Bend.

Wouldn't you like to know, weather boy

"That's LORD Pending thank you very much," Lord Pending sniffed. He checked his Khlenni pocket watch. "And it's about 10 hours. I don't see how that's relevant to this matter." "I'm not impressed by your arguments that I'm spiked, but you know that already, seeing as you already sent them all to me in a letter, and I already told you so." "I approve of fighting back, regardless of whether you're village or spiked, but I'm not the type to be baited into a brawl. Other people can decide for themselves if they think the spiked teams you've proposed seem to make sense."

"My reservation with suspecting Rilla first is mainly just that she argued somewhat forcefully that hanging a Seeker before the accused was out of order," Lord Pending admitted. "I feel like under the circumstances, this was almost the only sane response for a villager of Copper's Bend who didn't have any extra information. What's more, she had an ostensible reason to hesitate before weighing in. Rilla had been out of the loop, and she was catching up on what had been happening in Copper's Bend for the last few days." "On the other hand, I have to agree that the hesitation still looks bad. I believe it would have been fairly natural for the spiked to hesitate before doing anything. Indeed, a significant part of what I found suspect with Sono was the hesitance to actually take a stand and vote on the issue right away, despite seeming immediately certain that I was lying. I also believe it may have been fairly natural for the spiked to make some effort to differentiate their eventual responses as a way of distancing from each other and hedging their bets. Sono initially opposing my claim and Rilla initially supporting it is in line with this." EDIT: "Essentially, yes," Lord Pending nodded. "Well, in order to be maximally precise and rigorous, we ought acknowledge that the ability to protect others isn't the only ability the mists have bestowed on people that might counterbalance the ability to kill. It is possible that the Spiked were gifted the ability to survive situations that would kill an ordinary person." "Personally, I'm of the belief that a spiked with the ability to protect people makes more sense, though, for a number of reasons."

"Assuming Sono is spiked, I'd favor going after Dasenk next but could pretty easily be persuaded to go after Rilla first." "Assuming Sono is not spiked, I will be very surprised, honestly, but I think our next step would probably have to be to hang Rem. Unless you wanted to hang me, of course, but I can't really weigh in on that meaningfully." Lord Pending paused for breath. "Oh, also, if nothing else changes, it seems likely that Sono will switch onto me near the end of the day. Which currently will result in another tie, and thus a repetition of the first day. We have plenty of time to decide on a course of action before then, but... Just thought I should mention that."

Lord Pending ducked the beer with an undignified yelp. It shattered on the wall behind him. "I'm sorry!" "But hear me out! Please don't throw another beer at me," Lord Pending pleaded. "Last I checked, you very much were in the lead before I intervened, and the votes had fallen off of Sono. You can say that it might have switched back onto Sono, but the current trajectory was very much pointed towards you." "And there's not much actual reason for the spiked to go after you, unless you had at least 3 vials of steel at the beginning of all this, which is really quite a lot." "...And finally, the cat was already somewhat out of the bag. While it's possible that the spiked didn't know about your powers, they have the distinct advantage that they can communicate with each other and figure this stuff out. If multiple villagers could work it out, the chances that they might work it out seems... Well it's not a sure thing but it's fairly significant." "If I placed you in danger, I apologize. That was not the intent. I sincerely didn't believe I'd have been putting you in much additional danger if you turned out to be village, and honestly that is still my view, but... Sorry if I'm wrong about that." EDIT: Lord Pending started writing a new list. This one was also a list of the living townsfolk, but it had different colors. Surely they meant something. ED2T: ED3T: Lord Pending thought for a moment and erased Jorrick's name in grey markings and wrote it in the same light green as Rilla's. He remembered that Jorrick has a tell that was relevant here.

"Alright, time to draw the curtains on this." "Another one of the traditional ways of celebrating Rollovet is by scamming people," Lord Pending stated pleasantly. "And I am ever a traditionalist to the bone." "You know how I said I was a Seeker? I'm nothing of the sort. Happy Rollovet!" "I apologize for giving you all a shock. But it has cleared up a few questions, I'd say. I hope it was worth it." "By his reaction, I'd say that I strongly doubt that Sirta is spiked. I think a real spiked coinshot who'd garnered votes and then had just been outed would've had a pretty hard time mounting such a fierce denial. Sure, he might've denied it, but the conviction just wouldn't be there. He'd know that even if he defended himself he was dead either way, and that undermining my credibility as a Seeker was unlikely to work. It takes a special kind of madness to keep fighting just as hard under those odds. Sirta's reaction feels quite genuine." "I am sorry about dragging you out into the open like that, but I had my reasons. There doesn't seem to be very much metal in Copper's Bend. How many vials did you start with? One? Two? Don't answer that. The point is, by all rights it probably isn't very many, and you've already burned one. Like I said, we're all on fairly even footing here, especially if you've already burned your one vial of metal. The need to hide and protect those with special powers is less pressing than it might otherwise be. And again, if I'm wrong, if you do have a remarkable hoard of metals squirreled away... Probably don't tell me that." "Not to mention, if I could figure it out, other people can too. I know for a fact that other people are working from a largely more complete picture than I am. If I can fill in the gaps then it figures that they quite probably can." "And for what it's worth, it also seems likely that you'd have had to have revealed yourself today anyway, due to leading in the vote." "I'll confess it wasn't very polite of me to force the issue rather than letting you choose to reveal in your own time. But I had my reasons." "In any case, this resolves one mystery that was vexing me today: it seems quite likely that the coinshot is on our side." "This is consistent with my second observation: namely that Sonoluminescence looks thoroughly spiked." "Given the abundance of persons with protective powers, and the presence of a killing power on the side of Copper's Bend, it seems pretty likely that some of those protective powers were bestowed upon the spiked. It could be Rem, but I don't buy it. If Rem were a spiked Lurcher then revealing himself as a Lurcher and then hanging Sono should be the last things he wants, as this would quite possibly ensure his death the next day. Whereas if Rem were a genuine village Lurcher then these actions make perfect sense. By process of elimination, Sono seems highly suspect." "There is also the way Sono reacted to my pretense towards being a Seeker. I think it's pretty apparent that Sono knew it was a lie from the start." "Sono compiled a list of powers that we've heard about. This included some uncomfirmed rumors of powers, such as the Thugs. And yet it had seemed perfectly natural to Sono to leave out that I had claimed to be a Seeker, without explaining why or even vocalizing that they didn't believe it was true." "Not very long after, when Sirta asks Sono to pick a side, Sono decides to vote for me. Again, with no explanation given, without so much as talking to me directly even once." "This is very strange behavior," Lord Pending says. "You'd think a townsperson would be more inclined to grapple with what both sides are saying, figure out which one is telling the truth, maybe get mad at the one who is lying. You'd figure there would be at least some evidence of them actually having to think about it, some evidence of showing their work. Or at least you'd think it would take longer for them to arrive at a definite conclusion on the subject." "But Sono didn't do any of that." "I think Sono knew I was lying from the beginning. Because Sono is spiked, and knows full well that Sirta isn't." "Instead, Sono voted for me. I imagine their thought process was that whether I hang or Sirta does, a villager would die, I would be outed as a liar, and Sono would look good in the aftermath for having disbelieved in the lie. It's a reasonable approach, if you don't think you're being tested." Lord Pending sighed, and looked to Sono. "I apologize, but I don't really see a way you can't be spiked. It would have probably been better if I'd voted for you yesterday."

“Rollovet is best celebrated in the interstitial times,” Lord Pending explained smugly. “The turning point between dawn and dusk, between life and death, between the correct view and the wrong one. It’s Terrisian tradition.”

Lord Pending slurped down the last of the brew in his cup and set it down on the porch in front of the inn. He picked up his cane, which hadn't been stolen while he'd been eating. He frowned. He actually kind of missed the thief. "Gentlepersons, it is Rollovet." "For those of you not as cultured or as well-traveled as myself, Rollovet is a traditional Terrisian holiday. The timing of Rollovet is very important: it happens at precisely midday. The balance between dawn and dusk is symbolic, you see. It relates to Terrisian mythology," he says sagely. "I shan't bore you with all the details, but I think we should throw ourselves a little Rollovet celebration. To maintain positive morale and such. All of this doom and gloom and death is bad business, it’s important to create those moments of positivity." "There are several traditional ways to celebrate Rollovet, but one of the very most classical methods is to suddenly reveal midway through the vote that you've caught a spiked." "And, well, I’m a traditionalist to the bone,” Lord Pending declared. “So, Sirta." Lord Pending jabbed his cane in the man’s general direction with an accusatory air. "I’m afraid I have to confess to following you around last night. But I’m glad I did. The mists gave me a power, you see, different from all the other ones we’ve heard about so far. It lets me hear people burning metals. If I listen very closely… It lets me hear if they’re spiked. A suitable ability, for a Lord such as myself. It is a Lord’s duty to have sound judgement, and clearly the mists recognize that.” “And it turns out…” Lord Pending paused lengthily for dramatic effect before the reveal, “Sirta is a Spiked Coinshot!”

Lord Pending stood out in front of the inn, clutching a cup of something steaming in one hand and a very generously buttered slice of toast in the other. He leaned with his back against the wall, his cane resting unused against his leg. "Quite an eventful night, I hear." "We've been getting a lot of claims and rumors and possible sightings of strange things out in the mists." "More than the usual, that is. The mists have always been a tad mysterious, and some folks have gotten sick from them, but now they say the mists are giving people strange powers! Most curious, wouldn't you say? Most curious indeed." "I think we should at least entertain the possibility that such powers are real. Unlike psychics which everybody knows are obviously fake," Lord Pending scoffs. "But just because I'm willing to entertain the possibility of something vaguely mystical" -- or mistical as the case might be, but making such a pun out loud was beneath Lord Pending -- "doesn't mean I'm willing to take everything at face value or believe in every claim. We should be methodical about this. We should take inventory of what kinds of powers people have heard about. Perhaps there will be a pattern." Lord Pending took a long sip of his drink whilst preparing his thoughts. "So far, there has been evidence of several abilities." "There is definitely someone out there with the power of killing." "There is definitely someone out there who's been delivering all these messages." "There is definitely at least one person who is tougher than a regular person, and a second unverified claim of such abilities." "There is an unverified but broadly credible claim regarding the ability to protect persons from danger." "I am sensing a kind of balance present in these powers. Push and pull. Some of them threaten life, others preserve it. Perhaps this balance is somehow a core part of the mists identity. I think the mists would seek to protect those who are in particular danger of dying, and I do not think the mists would bestow the power to defy death on those who weren't in danger of it." "This is mere speculation, but... It makes you think." "Did Copper's Bend receive the power of killing, counterbalanced by the spiked receiving the power to survive?" "Or did the spiked receive the power of killing, counterbalanced by Copper's Bend receiving the power to survive?" "Food for thought," Lord Pending concluded, biting off a mouthful of toast and chewing annoyingly loudly.

"I applaud your decision to just say no to death. Bad for the skin," Lord Pending repeated sagely.

Mayor Arwhin

"Sorry," Lord Pending looked sheepish. "For what it's worth, thinking you're spiked does not preclude liking you." "But yes, with the timing, and with the fact that you didn't pick a new suspicion afterwords, that's basically correct."

"I think you're huffing firemoss but village." "I think you're not village."

Lord Pending started making a list of different residents of Copper's Bend. He wrote different names in different colors. What the colors meant nobody knows. Maybe he just didn't have enough ink in any one color so he had to use several different colors to finish his list.

"I don't believe in dying," Lord Pending sniffed. "Bad for the skin." Did they forget that a tie doesn't kill anyone? Pending mused. Not that I'm complaining. Any suggestion that Lord Pending himself had forgotten this fact was obviously preposterous.

"And how does this excuse it? This supports my point." Lord Pending looked bemused. "If you are indeed correct and Onon is somehow not prone to dying by execution due to some mumbo jumbo about past lives, then that would imply that most likely Onon would die to murder. In which case, it is doubly remarkable that Onon assumes he won't die to murder, and that if he dies, it will be to the execution." "The only person who knows they aren't going to be murdered by the spiked... Are the spiked. Am I making my point clear? At face value, somebody assuming that the execution is the only thing that can kill them means they're spiked." "Do I think Onon is actually spiked and not just putting his foot in his mouth? Well that's a more complex question. But I'd at least like to get clear about what I'm saying here." "If you're serious about saying any closing thoughts before potentially getting executed today, you should have already started saying them. Because you aren't going to get a chance to start on your last will and testament if the vote flips on you in the last twenty minutes." EDIT: Anyways, Revir. Final answer.