Arrae

Okay, time for actual analysis. First off, last cycle Alv voted for Joe by himself in this post here, that wasn't vote manipulation. In that case, the vote manipulations were from Joe to Gaea (Kidpen's vote), and from Gaea to Wilson (Fifth's vote). Chances are that they weren't both done by the elim team, because they effectively made the number of votes on Gaea the same as before, and kept the lynch on Joe. We know that Joe is village, and the elims benefit from a mislynch, so the manipulation off of Joe was probably by a villager. That leaves the manipulation off Gaea. Gaea is the only reliable way for elims to get daggers, and thus kills, so it's possible that the elims might have saved her even if she was village to keep the black market open. Assuming Gaea is village, the manipulation could have been done by both a villager or an elim, so the bribery is NAI. Assuming Gaea is elim, the elims have a lot more reason to keep her alive, so the bribery was probably done by an elim. I'm honestly tempted to kill off Gaea now, regardless of alignment. Yes, she has nice items for villagers too, but the village can still work without alignment scans and item seizures. Protects aren't needed if there's no kills, either. Comparatively, an elim team with no kills is crippled. The elim team gets hurt a lot more than we do if Gaea's dead.

Annie slumped into a messy desk, exhausted from the day. Onde hadn't given her any warning that he was going on vacation, and he'd had her running all around Elendel sending last-minute correspondence. By the time she had delivered the last of the letters, the sun had already fallen. And she still had to organize the Senator's desk. She groaned. Still, the Senator expected her to do her job. Annie picked up the haphazardly strewn papers around her. A bill on the proper size of water pipes in government buildings went into one pile, an invitation to a dinner party to another. Annie sorted all of it from most to least urgent, and took note of which ones required Onde's input. The notice of the special election to find a new governor went on top of the business pile. Annie would have to write to Onde to get his vote on that. But there was one thing that couldn't be forwarded to Onde, wherever he was going. That was the discussion on how to find Governor Shreeves's murderer, and it was labeled as top secret. It demanded a response within the next three days, and was labeled at such a high security clearance that it couldn't just be sent through the mail. Annie chewed on her lip worriedly. Maybe if she rented a horse...but no, Annie had no idea how to ride a horse. She didn't have an address, either, just the name of a province. And Onde might not have even gotten the news yet; Annie herself had only heard rumors of the murder circulating after midday. Fine, then. Annie picked up a pen, and began to write a response. Edit: Sorry for being late, I had a DnD session and didn't realize the game was up yet. I'll try to be more on time in the future.

Sign me up as Senator Mike Onde, known throughout the Senate for that one time he was caught napping during a vote his diligence and care. Mike is out for the week and will be represented by his beleaguered aid, Annie Botaneaux.

@Steeldancer, I really don't have much to say in defense of myself. I know I'm not a Mistborn, and that's about it. I'm not an elim either. All you can do at this point is wait and hope I do more things that hint at my alignment. I'll be available for analysis tomorrow, but I'm busy today.

Well, this is interesting. Looks like Kelsier/Joe can only contact Vin, Zane, Marsh (if he is in this game), and other people with spikes. Alternatively, this could mean that he can essentially send public messages to everybody as long as at least one of them is alive for writeup PoV. Kelsier wants Zane dead. He probably wants Vin alive. He wants Elend alive. He wants Jaskal Lekel, and probably by extension, his Subordinates, dead. Overall seems fairly village aligned, except for the Vin thing. @Fifth Scholar, what happens if Zane dies and Vin does not?

Just letting you all know, I'm kind of busy today and tomorrow, so my responses today might be perfunctory at best. The shop was open! Needa opened the door and flounced inside. Mommy walked in behind her at a more sedate pace. The shop was filled with quilts of all sorts of wonderful colors. Needa ran up to them and buried her fingers in a quilt with a star pattern, feeling the wonderful warmth of the cloth. Now to start her task. Needa turned to the man who looked like the storekeeper and asked, "Mister, what's this made of?"

SECRET HISTORY SPOILERS Because of that, I think Joe should not be lynched. In fact, I think proposing a lynch on him is kind of suspicious. Bard. On top of that, I don't like how he's going after Lum for her roleclaim. Tineye 2 can easily be tested by having Lum PM the role that she got from her vote to the person she voted on. She might not automatically be village, but she's probably not a Mistborn.

That makes sense. Araris.

General thoughts: Right now, I'd say that Lekal's Subordinates should be a higher priority than the Unstable Mistborn. The Subordinates want to get rid of all non-subordinates, whereas the Mistborn want to get rid of the Subordinates. I'd much rather get rid of people gunning for me than people gunning for a mutual enemy. Thus, we should keep discussion public because it's been proven in multiple games that it helps get rid of elims faster. Once we get a few Subordinates down, then Mistborn might start becoming a higher priority. The Mistborn win if at least one of them is still alive after all the Subordinates are dead. Essentially, they're vigilantes in a team who don't want to be caught. Based off of my experience, one of their tells could be that they will name suspicion of somebody, but not vote on them because they know that they've already sent in a kill order on that person, so there's no need to try to lynch them now. More specific thoughts: I'm conflicted on the Rand thing. I don't like his idea, and it's possible that it could be proposed by an elim who wants to be able to skate by and have less people analyze each of his stated suspicion. On the other hand, attempting to do things differently to compensate for added complexity does seem villagery. I haven't seen enough to decide either way. Moving on to others. Araris stated that somebody has to be lynched today. That's a statement that I'd like explained.

"Remember what you're going to do, Needa," Mommy said. She looked over Needa one last time. "Your buttons don't line up." Needa nodded as she rebuttoned her coat. Today Mommy wanted them to seem lower noble, so she had to look the part, coat, dress, and all. Nothing like those skaa rags yesterday, though not the fanciest she had ever worn. Once she finished, she took Mommy's hand and exited the door. They walked through the streets of Luthadel, passing by a few people. Luthadel was quieter these days, with the threat of multiple armies circling around them and the possibility of siege on the horizon. At least, that was what Mommy said. Needa waved at the merchants and lower nobles she recognized, taking careful note of who smiled and waved back, and who just kept going. Even if these people weren't part of the mission yet, she still felt that Mommy would be proud if she practiced. After going for a few blocks, they reached their location: Reap What You Sew. The door was closed, and one of the windows was broken. "That's Lerdar's work alright. Never had a sense of subtlety, did he," Mommy muttered, so quiet Needa could barely hear her. More loudly, she said, "Needa, you know what to do." Needa nodded and walked up to the door. @Snipexe, anyone inside?

Needa hung her head as she watched the lady go. Somehow, seeing her kind response, without a hint of any anger, had made Needa feel even worse. She blinked back tears. "I'm sorry! I didn't mean it!" Needa called. She brought her sleeve to her eyes, to wipe them, then remembered that she was in public. Mommy had told her never to wipe her nose in public, it made her look like a skaa. She hung her head even lower, for almost forgetting that. Hopefully she hadn't hurt the lady. Needa sat on her hands, to make sure that she couldn't throw any more rocks or use her blouse as a tissue. She resisted the urge to kick her feet, too, just in case it might disturb someone. Meanwhile the king droned on. Needa tried paying attention to him, but all his words seemed to slide out of understanding. It was just so boring. Needa hoped he would end his speech soon, since she was starting to get hungry,

Needa sat at the fountain, kicking her feet. To be honest, she didn't want to be here. Mommy had said that the King was going to do something, but Needa didn't see anything much. He was just talking. He'd mentioned something about an army and Needa had perked up at that, but then he had gone on talking about boring stuff and Needa had lost interest again. Needa gave up on watching the king and turned her attention to the sky. Clouds drifted westward, forming and reforming various shapes. In the distance, she thought she could see two dark spots streaking across the sky. A pair of Mistborn? But friends or enemies? Needa drummed her fingers as she thought. Maybe they could be old enemies that had become friends. Like Mommy and the skaa informant! Mommy was always talking about how unreliable he was and how he wasn't worth the money, but then one day she'd started being a lot nicer to him. Needa hadn't actually seen what had happened, of course. All she knew was that Mommy said that because of the revolution, they had to be friends with all the skaa now. She picked up a rock and idly threw it into the water, pretending that it was a coin and that she was Steelpushing it. It made a satisfying splash. Needa bent down to pick up to pick up a few more rocks, and threw one further. This one landed on the far edge of the fountain. It, too, made a good splash. Needa threw her third rock -- --and winced when it went too far and hit a pretty lady on the opposite side of the fountain. Oops. @Mailliw73

But what if I think watching him his Lordship be dissed is amusing?

Is the name of the elims a jab against our esteemed Lord Orlok here?

This is fascinating. First two games I come back, I express suspicion of an eliminator and vote on them early game, and I'm still considered suspicious. Joe, point of order: I rant-rambled that it was much harder for me to muster the energy to pay attention to the game than usual. I did not say I was ignoring the other players. These two things might have similar effects, but imply very different things. Elandera, please consider this: I did not consider Lum's post to be an automatic elim flag on Cadcom. It only made him into a person of interest who might be elim. So I brought up Lum's comment. Later I looked further into Cadcom's posts, and found his behavior to seem out of place for a villager, and voted on him.

Now, why would you say that, Snip?

Cadcom has had two posts so far, both which don't have much content. What he said in his first post sticks out a lot: This was D1, about 1 to 2 pages in. Cadcom should not be lost with that little content. While I understand that he might've missed a lot in LG53, that still seems like he was trying to seem overwhelmed and out of time, which is more an elim thing to do. I can accept that he might be posting less due to being in LG53 and a new job, but that doesn't explain the tone of his post. Cadcom.

Bah, I forgot this game existed >.> I didn't submit an action last turn. Going to try to take a lantern this turn. Based off of last cycle, Xino and Devotary are probably village. Lum voted on Xino with poor reasoning 4 hours before rollover, probably to save herself. Devotary put a vote on Lum right before rollover. Seems pretty village. I'd also like to point out this post, here: It seems odd that Lum would announce that she'd PM Cadcom about this, because she could just do so quietly. Not quite sure what to think of this. My initial thought is distancing, to try to make it seem like scary, evil Lum was manipulating poor, village Cadcom.

Two months, one week, and three days in, Kally regretted enlisting. Every day, she looked out among the desolate wilds of Nebrask, watching for a single hint of white that could be a wild chalking. Every day, she traced over lines, circles, and more lines. It always left a white stain on her fingerprints, and after the fifth day, she'd stopped bothering to wash it off. For the past two months, one week, and two days, she'd been dreaming of going on the one week leave granted to soldiers every three months. But now, she had to deal with this. She would be excited by this break in the tedium, if not for how terrifying it was. Kally paced back and forth in camp, trying to think of what to do next. Xino, are you here?

Hello. Can't say much today because I have a pile of homework I should be doing, but I can definitely post more tomorrow. I'm not sure how much I like Joe's plan of announcing what items we're taking are. That basically tells the elims what our plans are. More thoughts on this to come tomorrow so I don't procrastinate any further today.

When will this game start?

Sign me up as Kally

I would like to note that on Friday (which I believe was D1), Lum PMed me saying that she had an extra win condition to convert players toward her goals. Most notably, she said that this alliance could involve spammers. Thus, I do not believe that she is nearly as village-aligned as she has claimed, though I do not believe her to be a spammer.