Amanuensis
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Everything posted by Amanuensis
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Young Bard: Is probably village due to Rath's inactivity, however, has no significant amount of content to analyze one way or another. Please post more Araris Valerian: Has known my role for a while, similar thought progressions to myself which suggests villager mindset. Hemalurgic Headshot: Deciding vote to kill Sart when the elims have known vote manipulation and didn't use it. Also had a PM with Striker before he died, which makes me believe he got a role and item claim to inform Striker's death. STINK: Has known my role for a very long time and despite not making him more items, I'm still alive and haven't been roleblocked by elim Pain Knife once. drakemarshmellow: Sart's repeated suspicion (unlikely to be distancing) and long bout of inactivity suggest villagerhood. Coda: Very good / pure D1, voted alongside El when the eliminators would have surely known she was the Shardbearer who attacked Sart (assuming that Sart used Alerter) Straw: Sart's D1 vote looks like distancing to me, hasn't provided enough content to significantly analyze. Lurking eliminator? These are my reads as of right now, in case I die. I stand by that the lynch order should be HH > Straw > Bard.
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I'm still suspicious of HH and Straw, and I think it's no coincidence they both voted for me. But I suppose that could just be confirmation bias. I would like to see more of Bard's thoughts, tho, since Rath wasnt active enough for me to get a good read on.
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While I am biased, I think the opposite is more likely. We know the Elims have a Pain Knife, but the vote manipulation here was a Reverser, which I claimed. If I were an elim I could have been using that Reverser from the very start of the game to mess with the village and even save Sart D2. I did none of those things because I didn't have a good enough reason to be the deciding vote for any lynch.
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Sorry El. I should let you know I'm the one responsible for your vote change. I began this game with a Reverser that I never had a reason to use until last turn. Had I known about the Order of Actions, I would have never submitted the order. I just hope that the Shardblade is still in village hands.
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I was hoping to have a reply to this before I went to bed tonight, but sadly everyone has had just as busy a day as me. Which means I have to be the one to make a decision, I guess. I've deliberated on this some more and feel no matter who survives this lynch is going to likely be the next target of the elims, and with what information I have, I believe that keeping my Artifabrian role alive for one more night is the better option for the village. So Amanuensis, Elbereth. Counting Straw's vote that brings us to... (4) Amanuensis: Elbereth, Hemalurgic Headshot, Coda, Straw, (3) Elbereth: STINK, Araris Valerian, Amanuensis,
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EVERYTHING I WROTE IS GONE. Edit incoming. ED1T: Ah, okay. Well I guess if we can't get out of this, we might as well try to make this fun. I'll do some RP later for my writing warm up and try to give Ularid some good characterization for the write up. I personally would be surprised if Sart didn't use his Alerter. Mostly because of this post: Given that the subject was items and it was 4 hours before turn over, I think it's more likely he used it. But I can accept the possibility he made a mistake. We all do, myself included (*flashbacks to Brass Rioter intensifies*). But okay. Assuming Sart didn't use it. At the point where I wondered if the Shardbearer should just claim, I was only tied in votes because of my self vote. I personally know I wouldn't openly fish like that if it meant putting my life at risk, especially with a teammate dead already. Knowing their identity could be a good reward, but I don't believe it'd be worth it. It's worth mentioning that while I've worked hard on becoming a more "relaxed" player in these games, I also care a lot about winning, or more importantly, doing right by my teammates. Voting for myself like I am would go against both of those things. I am still okay with dying, but I think it's worth pointing out in defense of myself. If people vote for me, I would rather it be because they think it's best for the village rather than thinking I'm something I'm not. I had more reasons for why I can't be partners with Sart, but I don't feel like typing it again unless it really matters haha. @Elbereth, I have a question for you. If you think there's a chance you're wrong about me, do you think letting the elims be the ones to kill me tonight while I get one last item made for a villager would be worth it? ED2T: (4) Amanuensis: Elbereth, Amanuensis, Hemalurgic Headshot, Coda, (2) Elbereth: STINK, Araris Valerian,
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Your guess is as good as mine. I'm just as confused xD
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Hm. I can confirm the Last Second thing, and that Striker said himself that he lost track of this game because of real life and splitting his attention between this and the MR. But with that in mind, it would be unlikely that Striker spied on Sart N2, both due to his lack of time / presence and because he never said he was suspicious of Sart (as far as I remember). If I were the Spy I would be investigating my top suspects
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I'd be voting for HH, but you bring up a good point about going straight for the Shardblade wielder. Striker targeting Sart is a good explanation for that, but I think it depends a lot on who the actual Shardbearer is. I'm honestly wondering if the person who attacked Sart should claim right now. Unless 3 people targeted him, the elims have whoever it is narrowed down for sure, and knowing their identity could help us clear an extra person.
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I too think El is probably village. The only way she isn't is if she is partners with HH, imo, given the circumstances of Sart's death and her continued defense of him. But I also think it's not very likely, hence why she is at the end of my lynch list. Are there any loopholes to keep either of us dying? Like no one voting and those who have already retracting their votes? Because while I am okay with dying, I would much rather it be at the elims hands than the lynch. I think it's undeniably better that no one die this turn rather than us losing a villager for effectively nothing.
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I'm not so sure that's a counterpoint haha. In fact, that reinforces why HH is evil. Only he could have known Striker's role, unless Araris had a PM with him too. And, like, if the elims didn't know Striker's role and item... then why would they kill him? I reviewed the turn Sart died and he had an Alerter. Which means he knows exactly who attacked him with the Shardblade. They would have killed the Shardbearer last night if they didn't know that Striker was both the Spy and had a Half-Shard, since it both prevents them from being discovered due to their number of items AND protects them from the same Shardbearer should they attack one of them again. Thanks for pointing that out I completely forgot about the Spy thing. I didn't participate in LG20 nor read/hear anything about it until now, so I can't comment on that, really. My question is how many of the players in this game are familiar with that one? Was Sart? Because if not, I don't think what happened then matters at all for this game.
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If you were an elim, I'm pretty sure you would have killed me last night. I made you the Spanreed N1 but then N2 you got nothing, which means you'd probably reach the conclusion that I made something for a villager. At that point you'd probably have decided it's not worth giving me the chance to make a Grandbow for a villager and removed me immediately. The fact the Striker died of all people makes me double down on my suspicion of HH. They were in PMs before Striker requested the group PM with me, and since I didn't trust a 3 person PM enough to share my role, he never shared his item with me. The PM HH and Striker had to themselves very likely contained that information, and a Half-Shard would do wonders for the eliminators after Sart's attack. What's wrong with using emojis Honestly I really don't want to duel. I think it's a waste of time, nifty flavor for the write up be burned {on Braize} And also only the challenger needs a Shardblade or Shardplate. I have neither, which means I'm borrowing them from King Elhokar. ED1T: Vote Count (2) Amanuensis: Elbereth, Amanuensis, (1) Elbereth: STINK,
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For the HH stuff, see the edit in my previous post. Well, just so you know I'm an Artifabrian N1 I made STINK a Spanreed, N2 I was inactive and never put in any orders, and N3 I made an item of Araris' choice.
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Hm. So much for making today productive. There's a pretty big flaw in your case against me. I think this sentence summarizes it pretty well: I think this is your first game with me in a while so I can let it go. But this is definitely not my play style or my perspective. If I'm not confident that an active player is an elim, I will always pursue an inactive or low active first, because the long-term activity of a game is a lot more important to me than risking the death of a vocal villager. Also, that whole non-informational lynch thing is a bit subjective. I disagree that killing Sart D2 would have been more informative than killing HH. In fact, I am even more suspicious of HH after what happened last night. I'm actually really disappointed right now because between you and him, I figured you were the villager, and now you've ensured no eliminators can get lynched today. You should have at least talked to myself or other people about this first. The very least you can do before you thunderdome someone is give them a chance to speak for themselves. Amanuensis. My hands are clean of this. You can take the responsibility ED1T: Young Bard: Hard to say due to Rath's inactivity. Possible inactive teammate. Need content to evaluate. Araris Valerian: Very likely village. Similar mindset to me this game, PM'd me without ever trying to fish for info, no unreasonable votes. Also found out my role last night and didn't kill me. Hemalurgic Headshot: Sart could have been saved by Elandera's Pain Knife but wasn't. HH is the only reason Sart died in the end. It is very obvious to me that this was an attempt to gain credit. Not to mention the fact HH created a group PM with Striker and I, and now Striker is dead? In said PM Striker mentioned HH agreed to give his Spanreed to Striker, and yet that never happened. Now we can see Striker had a half-shard, however, which his killer clearly wanted for protection from the village Shardbearer. There is no world in which HH is village IMO. STINK: Undoubtedly village. Has known my role since N2 and I'm still alive. DrakeMarshallow: Very likely a villager. Sart was gunning for him too hard and he nearly died to the inactivity filter. Coda: My very first Village read this game, though I wish @Coda would get more involved again. Straw: No idea, but leaning as Sart and HH's next teammate. Since Sart's flip, I'm beginning to believe his vote D1 was distancing. Elbereth: Probably Village. I'm going to be pleasantly surprised if she is elims with HH though. If so, good job taking out your partner before the Shardblade wielder could attack him again. I'd have done the exact same thing. My recommended lynch order when I'm gone? HH > Straw > Bard > Elbereth. Game should be won before that reaches the end. Oh right. Both HH and Araris began with spanreeds. My theory from the get go was that eliminators had one. Between Araris and HH, HH had several questionable votes and was gathering information in PMs. This is why I've been on Araris' side and against HH.
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I can pass it along. I should probably pass along that I think STINK is probably village as well, for similar reasons. Being enigmatic is also fun, however...
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Suppose I can't argue there but I'm in the same boat as you, it seems. I know I'm good and have a relatively good feeling Araris is too, which is a conclusion I reached separate from D2's votes. I could definitely be wrong there - in fact, I've actually been more wrong than not in most games lately - but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and pursue other leads. Just so happens we're on opposite pages
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Ah. Now I'm reminded of conversations I've had with Fifth. It seems like we see things too differently, because I feel the complete opposite regarding the tied vote. If anything that is 100% better for HH if Drake died because it not only means he nearly saved a villager, but when Sart eventually did die, it would only further reinforce his position. As another example of our different perspectives, I'm wary of people trying to diminish suspects by disregarding people too easily (or, at least, not actively considering multiple possibilities or angles of a situation). I've been asking myself for a while now if you and HH are both the remaining Eliminators because Praise Braize, that would be quite the bus if Sart died only to his allies and they used it to carry themselves deeper into the game. TLDR; I dont know what to believe at this current moment, but the situation appears odd enough that something is most definitely afoot. Right now I'm trying to parse the ways Eliminators benefited from Sart's death enough to let it go. It could be a matter of inactivity, but aside from Drake and Rath, I think nearly everyone could have done something if they wanted.
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@STINK is here too. Hm. I find that wording a bit off, El. You can accept suspicion of you, but you can't accept suspicion of HH? I think it's a pretty valid strategy to come in last minute to guarantee an allies death like that. If I was on Sart's team after he lost his Shardplate to a vigilante I would definitely either do it myself or encourage another teammate for the exact reason you are pointing out. It makes really good cover when most eliminators would choose to do nothing.
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I'm not certain Araris is village, but generally it's a gut thing plus something I don't think I should share in thread, just in case. I guess I could be wrong there but I don't really feel it. Good point on HH. I never noted the time. My working theory with the Sart lynch, though, is that Sart wanted to die. Once the Shardbearer hit him he was as good as dead. If he survived yesterday, I bet the elims would assume the same Shardbearer would finish the job. This way getting him lynched could net a teammate some village credit instead of losing him the next night and having nothing to show for it. So yeah. That's why I'm not so sure your and HHs vote clear much.
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Double posting is generally bad, but no one has responded in 14 hours and I feel like more needs to be said. Unfortunately my day today has been just as busy as my weekend and this post is all I can manage before I go to sleep and do it all again tomorrow. I've expressed this in some PMs, but I find Sart's death very weird. I'm having trouble understanding why there was no votes manipulated to save him when we know the elims got a Pain Knife from Elandera on N1 (assuming she had no heirs, which I doubt. I only now decided to heir my item to someone. The Elandera kill was out of the blue enough that I don't think she'd have done it just in case, even though I think it's really smart for all villagers to heir their items immediately, just to make sure the elims don't snag them if they kill them). By that way, that's me suggesting any villager who hasn't heired their items to do it now. Even if you accidentally give it to an elim, the chance of giving it to a villager is better than giving it to the eliminators for sure. Honestly? I'm low-key hoping the eliminators kill me. I've had a rough couple weeks because of uni alone and I'm trying very hard not to relent on my writing goals for NaNoWriMo. I've already fallen behind so I'm in a desperate catch up mode right now. It would be a huge relief if I was targeted. I've left my thoughts on who I think are villagers, even if I haven't explained why. I want to remind everyone that confirmed-good does not mean confirmed-right, so if you have a good reason to believe anyone I've vouched for is evil, don't let it keep you from pursuing that lead. But I also want to say I feel pretty comfortable with my positions on everyone so far. As of right now, I feel relatively confident about Araris, Coda and Straw. I am pretty sure one of Elbereth or HH is 100% confirmed village based on the votes, but I'm also becoming increasingly convinced one of them is evil. Otherwise I'm not sure why Sart's partners didn't make an effort to save him, or guarantee his death. It seems way too fishy how easy that was. @Rathmaskal and @drakemarshallow appear to be literal dead weight at this point, so that will thankfully clear some things up. I'd bet money on Drake being village at this point, but Rath is still up in the air. His inactivity could be a part of why Sart wasn't saved. Regardless of how Rath flips, I think Striker and STINK are good candidates for investigation. I'm not saying lynch them immediately. I'm not so confident about my PoE this game that I can recommend they both die in good conscious. I just want to make sure they get some pressure / encouragement, should I no longer be around to do it myself. ED1T: Oh! I should comment on Straw. I said I'm leaning village for him, but that's mostly because of Sart's vote on him D1. I'm always suspicious when people go for Straw on the first day because of his play style, and I always try my best to discourage it. That said, both Sart and Straw should be aware of this fact, and may have planned for it accordingly, so it's definitely worth looking into.
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Now that's a really nice surprise. I had that feeling that something was off with Sart both D1 and D2, and now I wish I pursued it more. Sorry that I didn't end up getting back on yesterday, I had a big assignment for programming that took a lot longer than I anticipated, and by the time I was finished, my brain only had room for one word: bed. I can't recall what the grounds for Sart's suspicion on Drake was, and I'm actually posting this during a class right now so I can't go looking for it myself, but I'm not so sure it was a distancing attempt. Had Sart been voting for an elim when Araris joined in, he probably would have been around at the end of the cycle to make sure he didn't actually die. I believe it's more likely that Drake is just village. Speaking of, @drakemarshallow, @Rathmaskal, we really need you guys to start posting at least once a cycle. I'm just barely managing to do that much, but that's all we need to make sure the eliminators don't get any free extra kills. Disclaimer: Unless one of you two is actually an elim, than feel free to perish in silence <3 Elb and HH look good, assuming one of them didn't bus Sart. I think Araris is probably good, for reasons I can't really explain. I've previously mentioned I'm reading village for Coda and leaning village for Straw. That leaves Rath, Striker, and STINK as the top three players I want to figure out right now.
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I'm alive. Sorry for not being around much. I had a busy weekend not including NaNo, and I think I'm going to use night turns as a break from the game for NaNo anyways. I'm not sure why Fura was killed. When I get the chance, I'll isolate all his posts, track his votes, and other people's votes on him. Hopefully I'll turn up something worthwhile. Wait. Are the means of kill attempts (Shardblade, Grand Bow, or Elim Attack) specified to the survivor? Ah. I figured that was Soulcaster created too, but I just reviewed the rules. Soulcaster's are a redirect. Also that is unfortunate. I wonder if the Artifabrian realized it would be temporary. Seems to me like there's a lot of better things to create.
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I'll respond properly when I have more time. Unfortunately I have some obligations this weekend.
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Mid-Range Game 38: The Council of Elrond
Amanuensis replied to Elbereth's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I haven't really done enough analysis to say who I trust right now. But I think I'd be down to vote Striker, based on0 I'm of course happy to get elected this cycle. But I'm also happy to stick around and try to help us get the right people in. -
Yes.
