Jondesu

Kintas carried the bridge alongside his fellow Initiates, worried about the attention Dalinar was giving to this search. Granted, he didn't care for Kaladin so far, but at the same time, the man was one of a very few Knights Radiant who were available, and he knew they needed every man and woman in the upcoming days. The fact that Dalinar was concerned for Kaladin was telling, since the former slave was so formidable a fighter, and could fly straight through a highstorm and come out more energized than he started, from all accounts. If he could fall, then what that meant for the rest of them, Kintas didn't like to consider. He fell into the rhythm of marching, lowering, shoving the bridge across, then picking it up and repeating, with the extra steps used for Dalinar's bridges, but unlike some others, he knew he didn't have to worry about becoming worn out. An advantage of having died once. Stormlight would keep them all in good health and ready to move, though, so he doubted he would stand out too much for that. Several hours later, he was amending his initial observations. Yes, Stormlight was a great energy source and helped keep everyone in good physical condition during their exertion, but it took a toll long-term. They were all getting restless and there were more than a few complaints by the time one of Dalinar's scouts halted Bridge One's progress to send a party down to the chasm floor. They attached a rope ladder to the side of the plateau they were on and a few men made their way down to look into something they'd spotted. Kintas took a short rest in the shade as he waited to see what they had found. When they returned, the news was mixed. There were bodies down in the chasm, Voidbringers that were almost certainly from the group that attacked the Initiates the day before. That meant that they were on track and at least one of the paths they'd mapped out as likely for the flow of the water was correct, but there was no sign of Captain Kaladin. The scouts marked the location and their findings on a map, and one of the officers made the call as to which direction they would move to continue their search. Kintas shrugged the bridge back onto his shoulders along with the others, and settled in for an even longer day.

Because he posted it here and got several upvotes for it.

CS Lewis

Did any of the original Scadrians (the first generation created by Ati and Leras) have Feruchemical abilities?

Drake actually had the opportunity to seal the execution of Quiver, and the fact that he didn't worries me. Still, I suspect it's unlikely he's an Edgedancer, though possible if he bonds it this round. I definitely agreed that we have to execute Drake, or this will have been a waste of time. I'm fairly confident in my analysis anyway, though it's not based on hard info. Edit: Based on the ratios I usually see mention, we should have 5-6 Unjust since we started with 22 players, right? That still leaves up to 4 that could be bonded or forming bonds without issue, if they planned ahead already. I hope they screwed up and didn't put in Honor towards bonds right away so they could investigate instead and that we snapped up most of the spren, but I'm suspecting that of the 5 bonds currently formed, 1-2 is likely an Unjust. Hopefully nothing too devestating at least. Edit 2 since no one else has posted: @Amanuensis, does the writeup reveal the type of kill (Unjust faction kill vs Dustbringer) or will you intentionally not reveal that?

That was my point about the Stormfather. He was bonded before, to a Bondsmith presumably, but he wasn't the Cognitive Shadow (or bonded to) of Tanavast/Honor at that time, just a massive spren that very likely was of Adolnasium originally. The other figures in the storm could be similarly ancient spren.

Lol, that's what I get for not paying enough attention.

I'm beginning to wonder if they're not whoever the Bondsmith Spren originally were. After all, the Stormfather wasn't Tanavast's Cognitive Shadow before the Recreance, or at least before the shattering of Honor (which has been mostly confirmed to be after the Recreance), so the Rider of the Storms was bonded to a Bondsmith before that from what we know. What if there are three big spren that travel the highstorms, and they are who the Bondsmiths bonded? The Rider of the Storms may not have actually controlled the storm back then either, since Honor/Tanavast's Cognitive Shadow could have potentially allowed for more control over that, depending on the actual source of the storms.

Rust and Ruin, I thought it was you for so long, only to be convinced otherwise. I suspect it's too late or you wouldn't have revealed yourself, but Herwynbe.

So, sharing from the Bad News thread here, but my nail is basically normal looking now, over a week later (never turned black or anything like that, I kept a bandaid on it to keep it from getting messed up again, but that's off now). Very relieved about that.

From the writeup, I was assuming that this was just the Unjust's faction ability: investigating first, then sending two of their members to execute the person for the crimes they discovered. It was probably just luck on their part that they hit one of our Radiants. That does confirm that there was a Lightweaver (I found out just this morning from a PM that I had misunderstood and there was indeed a Lightweaver before, as we now know for sure, and that means there's only one unidentified spren bonded). EDIT: Also, the number of players with the maximum Honor possible (10) is shrinking a bit, as a number of people now have 9 or 8, instead of 10. Only four of us still have the max: Drake, Mage, Randuir, and myself. This is all assuming I haven't made mistakes or that Aman hasn't been calculating things differently, of course, but it's interesting to watch.

Thanks, that doesn't sound like quite enough incentive to be why they haven't been killing, but it's possible. I forgot I hadn't yet, so I'm adding my vote to execute quiver. There doesn't seem to be any particular reason not to at this point, and it won't give us a bunch of information, but maybe we'll be lucky and he'll have been an Unjust. That leads me to the following vote tally: Interrogate: Alvron (3): Arinian, HH, Lopen Drake (2): Jondesu, Rae DA (1): Randuir Lopen (1): Mage Anarchist (0): Drake Rae (1): Drake Execute: Quiver (9): Alvron, HH, Mage, Assassin, Rae, Arinian, Lopen, Randuir, Jondesu We're one short on the vote to execute Quiver, so anyone that hasn't voted yet but intends to, please do. Otherwise, we'll leave him in jail to either sit and wait or be taken out by the Elims. Honestly, those options also might give us info, but I still don't see any reason not to just execute him ourselves this round. As for the interrogation vote, I don't really want to bandwagon on Alv, and I haven't seen anything that I felt was incentive to do so, so I'm going to leave my vote where it is. There's a lot of players who haven't voted, though, so we're going to be lacking in information a bit. Kintas tossed back his third lager of the night as he eyed the group around him. There were both Initiates and plenty of others joining in the fun, and some looking like they weren't having fun at all. Two men sat at a table, one gripping the other's wrist, locked in a very serious-looking conversation (was that the blind Initiate? Kintas decided he was sure it was), while others looked about ready to fight. Having seen enough fighting for one day, Kintas prepared to head out quietly, and thought of his opportunity to probe Ranatar's brain for the secrets of the Stormwardens. He pushed aside the desire, though, and instead decided to make his way to one of the balconies overlooking the mountains and simply spend some time stargazing. He'd always wanted to get another angle of the Red Rip, or as they called it here, Taln's Scar.

To revisit my list of the bonded spren: Lightweaver and Edgedancer are unbonded. Willshaper, Dustbringer, and Truthwatcher are bonded. That means that of Windrunner, Stoneward, and Elsecaller, two of those are also bonded, so we have two types that have never been bonded and one that was but the bond is now broken. Willshaper, of course just go ahead and use your ability as you see fit. We know you are out there, since we saw you change Quiver's vote, and I don't have any specific guidance for you. Dustbringer, I just really hope you're not an Unjust. I don't care if you decide to not even use your ability, just please don't be Unjust. If you do kill someone, try to be fairly sure, but don't lose that spren if at all possible, assuming you're not Unjust (did I mention that I hope you're not an Unjust?). Truthwatcher, if you find out anything important, let several people know via PM, but don't reveal yourself publicly. You can trust me, but I know you don't know you can trust me, so just make sure someone learns whatever you can find out. The other roles are all ones I don't have specific advice for either, except that it would be awesome if you somehow let us know what spren you have (without publicly identifying yourself). I don't know how exactly, but maybe if you perform an action, leave a coded message for whoever would have seen the effects of that here in the thread, or for someone else who would know what to look for. And whatever you do, let's keep those spren away from the Unjust if at all possible. That said, I think it's almost guaranteed that some of those bonds are with Unjust, between the statistical possibility and the fact that they'll have been trying hard to get one. They're probably much better coordinated too, so they don't put Honor into the same spren as other Unjust and end up wasting some of it. That doesn't account for the lack of a kill, so I'm going to look for an explanation, but I can't come up with a particularly convincing one right now. And no, @Drake Marshall, I don't have a specific third option that you omitted there. :-P Edit: @Amanuensis, does using the Unjust faction ability to attempt to execute a player delay or prevent an attempt by that Unjust player to bond a spren, or would it only be a problem for them after the bond is formed? The rules only mention that the spren will leave them if they interrogate or execute an Honorable, but implies it would affect them bonding too. That could explain the lack of Elim kills, since I doubt all the Elims are inactive, and I suspect they have enough information on enough of us to send a couple of the team to kill someone at least one of these nights.

Kintas couldn't believe his eyes. Veriq was glowing with Stormlight, yet with Petrik right next to him and ready to fall to his death, Veriq just... turned away. Left his fellow Initiate to die, for no reason that Kintas could see. In the instant he had to think, he formed the simple Command, hoping he was visualizing it well enough. "Grab Hold and Pull!" It drained him of a large number of Breaths, since it was somewhat poorly visualized, but the rope wrapped itself around Petrik's broken arm. Kintas winced as it yanked the injured man upwards, as he screamed in pain, but it brought him up alive. Petrik didn't breath in any Stormlight from the gems around, and fell down in shock as he reached safety, obviously in severe pain. As Veriq arrived at the top of the Spire himself, Kintas whirled on him, angrier than he'd ever been in his life, kicking him down to the ground. "What the Colors was that!" Back at Urithiru, Kintas felt his bad mood deepening. He still didn't understand how Veriq could have abandoned Petrik like that, but now Captain Kaladin hadn't returned with them and there was talk that no one had seen him after the battle at all. Kintas wasn't too worried for the man; he just wanted to smack some sense into him. He knew intellectually that such an encounter wouldn't work out well for himself, but he felt like he'd eaten a wrong flower today, and it was driving him up a wall. The chasmfiend had been dangerous on its down, but Kaladin should have kept a lookout for the Parshendi, and should have kept this closer to safety if there was danger. There was no excuse for the deadly conditions he'd placed the new Radiants in, even though they'd come through it without any fatalities yet. Actually, that was one of the other reasons for his bad mood. Ashetvl had been murdered in her cell, which the jailers had tried to keep quiet, but word got around. That meant despite her crimes, she was unlikely to have been behind Lomot's murder, and now people had been getting stirred up and pointing fingers at more people. Kintas wasn't opposed to pointing fingers, but he did like to make sure he didn't do it idly. Arionium had been locked up because of dark theories and wild accusations, and while it seemed to have hit home, Dalinar had told them he had escaped and was running free in the city. Kintas didn't know what the man was up to, and he wasn't sure what he'd do if he found him. Probably a toss-up between turning him back in and asking him to do some reconnaissance work for him. Finally, Kintas decided he'd join some of the others at Club Seb. Not being able to get drunk didn't really dampen his enjoyment of a good glass of wine, or ale. That Horneater lager he'd heard about sounded interesting, in fact.

No, my understanding is that there is one of each type of spren for the entire game. Whoever invests the most into that type first gets it, and then they keep it as long as they have 1 unspent Honor to give it each round, and don't do something else that would break the bond (like using an Unjust action). That means there will never be more than 8 people bonded to a spren at any given point in the game.

Okay, so we say with certainty that there is a Willshaper, a Dustbringer, a Truthwatcher, if the people involved are telling the truth (the Willshaper is confirmed of course), and I've learned that there is not currently a Lightweaver, unless I'm missing some details. That leaves two currently bonded spren we don't know for sure, and I'm guessing the Edgedancer spren hasn't been rebonded yet, though I'd still like to know if that's possible.

Yeah, I know, but anyone with a spren bonded at that time would have needed to have earned at least 5 Honor by now to have kept it. If two people invest in the same spren, the one with more invested into it gets it, too, which is why I'm leaning towards those with the most Honor also being the ones who have unbroken bonds, and since only one bond has been broken (by reasons we all know), we know that no one with less than 5 Honor could even possibly have a spren right now.

That's actually not good to hear, though hopefully it was at least an Honorable who got the Dustbringer spren. I was hoping it was more expensive, which means the ones that haven't been bonded probably aren't more expensive, but we haven't had enough people putting Honor towards them. If people are splitting their Honor instead of putting it all towards one spren, though, the ones that are less sought-after would probably be the unbounded ones, then. @Doc12, thanks for the reminder about Quiver's vote, I'd seen that but forgotten that we had that confirmation of the Willshaper bond. That's two confirmed of the 5 currently bonded spren, with one possible if the Edgedancer spren was already bonded again. @A Joe in the Bush, replying from the previous cycle I think, but Kintas never lied, he didn't claim to be from Roshar. Lastly, I completed my Honor count from last cycle (almost everyone got either 2 or none, so we're separating the active from the less or inactive even more when it comes to Honor count). 7 players have 8 Honor apiece, while another 4 have 7 Honor (some of that is already spent towards getting a spren or maintaining a bond, of course, but they've earned that much). Those are the most likely players to have a bond. Since this isn't exactly a secret nor information anyone else couldn't put together if they have the time, here's the players I believe have enough Honor to gain spren: 8 Honor (most likely candidates): Alvron, Doc, Drake, Magestar, randuir, Lopen, and myself. 7 Honor (decently likelihood): Joe, Rae, Ecth, and HH. Arinian had a spren, and he's earned a total of 6 Honor throughout the game (he'd have 8 if he hadn't been imprisoned that one cycle, I suspect), so we know that anyone with 6 could potentially be bonded too. Assassin and Silver could both have spren, in that case, while the rest of the players are much less likely to have one. I'm gonna guess that most of the players with spren are in the first two lists, though, since Arinian would also have been there if not for being imprisoned.

Good enough explanation. I set up a text shortcut on my phone to do the code, btw, which makes it pretty easy. I'll follow up and go ahead and vote for Araris like I said, based mostly on the reasoning in my earlier post.

I'm awake and semi-conscious, so here's some discussion, and RP will be edited in or in a new post depending on if others post before I figure it out. I started going back through the early cycles to see if any suspicions stood out, and while I wasn't able to keep myself focused enough to go through everyone's posts the whole way through (even if I ignored the RP, which I'm hoping to be able to do for game analysis purposes, although having some people mixing it means I'll have to pay attention to each post no matter what), I did notice something that stood out to me. I'd be mostly trying to not get annoyed at @Drake Marshall for tunneling on me, since I don't think that's a reason to be suspicious of someone, but when I started reading over his posts, I realized there was a trend. He's being very helpful in presenting strategies the Elims might use, and ways for us to consider finding them (like watching to see who breaks spren bonds, if we can identify who has them), and is often bringing up things before others say them when it comes to strategies. That's a good thing for the village usually, but the things he's coming up with sound to me like strategies the Unjust may have discussed in their doc and then dismissed, but that let him get a chance to present those as things we can use, in an attempt to gain trust. He also switched his vote to Sheep late, which isn't too suspicious, and then put it on quiver as the other inactive, before switching it back to me. I've also been getting suspicious of how he's pushing Rae, and the questions he's asked of Aman, so I'm going to vote this cycle we interrogate Teresh (Drake Marshall). I don't have any other specific suspicions yet, but I'm going to continue trying to analyze the previous cycles as well as trying to keep myself up to date so I can see other patterns. I haven't updated my Honor tracking for Day 4 yet since I was gone, but we know Arinian lost his bond, and someone else bonded a spren. @Amanuensis, can a spren be bonded again the same cycle it's bond was broken with someone else? If so, that Edgedancer spren is probably the bond that was formed, but if not, it could be just about any other spren. That means of the 8 types of spren, 5-6 have been bonded (depending on that answer), and my guess is that most people went for the more high-profile spren. If I had to guess, and I like to, I'd say the following spren are bonded by now: Truthwatcher, Edgedancer (possibly unbonded for this round at least), Lightweaver, and Windrunner. I'm sure people are going for Dustbringer, but if there's one spren that requires a higher threshold of Honor, I'd almost guarantee that would be one. The other bond or two that has been formed would have to be Willshaper (probably an easier one to get), Stoneward, or Elsecaller. Stoneward is one of the nice roles for the village to have and to keep from the Elims, so if that hasn't been bonded, hopefully one of us will get it soon. No one has more than 8 Honor yet, though there should be a number that do (once I run the numbers for last cycle I'll know), so there's a decent chance that some spren require more than that. There should be enough people with 8 Honor that didn't all go for the same spren to have likely bonded the more difficult ones, and those with less Honor may have gone for spren they figured would require less Honor, so I'm a little surprised we don't have more bonds. Dustbringer, Truthwatcher, and maybe Stoneward actually probably are the three that haven't been bonded yet, I'm guessing, since they're among the most valuable and likely are the most expensive, but I'm still reevaluating my guesses on that (as shown by the differences in the last paragraph and this one). If anyone has bonded a spren, please make sure someone else knows, preferably a few other people that you at least somewhat trust, just so information isn't lost if you're killed. That's something I've decided from previous games almost always makes sense. Ok, that's it for now, I'll put some time into writing RP and will be back at least once more today before the cycle ends.

Horrible movies

I could get behind that, but I notice you didn't actually vote for him. Is there a reason for that?

I am thoroughly exhausted and will not be able to do analysis or RP today like I had hoped, but with the cycle extended, I think I'll still get in a good bit tomorrow. @randuir, if Ranatar would like Kintas to come by and talk about Stormwardens, feel free. Otherwise, he might end up at Club Seb or else just wander and explore Urithiru.

Ok...Hero, I'm not certain I should trust you, but I think we're short on options, so I'm choosing to. With your list, the remaining possibilities for Elims (not counting myself, since I know I'm innocent) are Wyrm, Stink, Araris, and Conquestor. You brought up Orlok, but he's out of the game now, and while he could have been a Spiked (dropping the game didn't reveal his alignment), we can't really know. Of that list, I had been thinking I was relatively trusting of Wyrm, and equally suspicious of the rest, though of course lately I had been gunning for Stink. I think my trust of Wyrm was entirely unfounded though, just a gut feeling, so I would support lynching any of those four, but I'd be less likely to push for Stink right now probably.

BTW, I'm really trying not to give up on this game even though the odds are dwindling, but I won't get time to do any real analysis attempt until tomorrow at the earliest.