Kasimir

Freakin' New Guy. It's the play where you lean into your newness and ask questions but don't do anything - you use it as a cover to avoid suspicion on the basis of being new and pure. You say you want to learn how to play mafia, but you simply show up, ask questions, and don't proactively contribute. You lurk in the thread a lot but don't say anything except to ask for terminology definitions. At this point, I'm questioning how much this is genuine, and how much this is meant to put us off our guard. Why not? Specifically, it's clear that Mat needs to be exed first in this landscape because there is a redcheck (again, I repeat, Skybreaker claimed a scan) on Mat that guarantees either Mat or the scanner is Evil. This is why we have to exe Mat, and then if Mat flips V, the Skybreaker. But you're not giving any reason to avoid exeing you at this point. Bro, I'm fine with that. I'm not asking you be on more times. I'm asking you be more present - don't lurk. Give thoughts. Vote. If you are a Villager, we need you voting. Use your role abilities. That sort of thing. Quality over quantity.

Elegant tbh. Would love to see this in action and play >:P So glad you finally made this sir!

Verily, this vichyssoise of verbiage veers most verbose, so let me simply add that it is my very good honor to meet you and you may call me V. Mat was roleblocked by a second Skybreaker. The claimant has come forward in PMs. The claimant purports to be a second Skybreaker, to have roleblocked Mat, and to have gained an extra Ideal. The only world in which a Skybreaker gains an extra Ideal is by roleblocking a kill. Since there was a successful DB kill, this more or less requires Mat to have been caught and stopped putting in the Elim kill. -I believe this claim is prima facie plausible. I think Archer has cased Mat already, but there's a few other points that can be made against Mat, including Mat's startling and visceral lack of WiM as compared to the late QF and LG. If STINK's behavioural shift is grounds for suspicion, then so too is Mat's behavioural shift. If Mat's post on tells is NAI, then it must be disregarded in favour of the raw evidence. Which means we cannot simply dismiss behavioural shifts, and question if the best explanation of them is simply E!Mat. SB#2 is in particular a pretty insane claim for a gambit - an Elim looking to frame Mat would go for EC, as we haven't had a single EC flip yet. -To be clear, there is definitely a world in which this is some form of gambit. We're currently 6/3 - if the Elim kill succeeds and we ML, we go on 4/3 next cycle. In fact, we lose if the Elim kill succeeds and if the DB misshoots this cycle. I'll come back to why in a short while. I just want to explain first that this situation does make a gambit more functionally possible than, say, if this were early game. However, because it's 6/3, it's an edgecase. In a V!Wit world, this is more possible simply because Wit is functionally - and I'm genuinely sorry to be saying this this bluntly to a new player - about as present as a damp rag. -However. Simply put, we cannot afford to pass this up. The play for a claim is always standard - exe the scan target, and then, if the scan target flips V, exe the scanner. I remind everyone that the Skybreaker's claim is straightforwardly damning because of the gained Ideal. Mat has separately claimed Edgedancer, backed up by another player who targeted Mat C1. In other words, there is no world in which both Mat and the Skybreaker are Village. Which means that lynching Mat, and then the Skybreaker if Mat is Village is the correct play. But we cannot pre-flip Mat. We have to flip Mat first, and then move on next cycle. -Here's the thing. Mat is definitely at least ED2. This follows from the fact I shot him an anon message C1 (as I did to everyone), and someone else targeted Mat C1 (call this the Back Up.) There is absolutely no world in which Mat - V or E - doesn't use Abrasion C1, and Progression C2, having received Progression. In the world the Skybreaker is truthful, which to be clear, is IMO the most plausible world, Mat and his team already knew, going into this cycle, that Mat was RBed, because Progression would have failed alongside the Elim kill. This leads me on to my next point. -Devo and Archer have both been aggressively lobbying me for Mat's Evil, and each other's guilt. Devo has been pushing for an Archer shot this cycle. I am hesitant. The fact that Devo and Archer are both sold on each other as Mat's E!partner makes me believe that this is part of Mat's team response to the known scan. I think what is going on is wolf theatre because there is no way in hell Mat's team knows Mat got scanned and the distancing or caution doesn't begin. In fact, I weakly think an Archer shot this cycle is a mistake, because in the world where we shoot V!Mat and this really is a gambit, a successful Elim kill and misshot on Archer costs us the game - we end up being 2/3 to the Elims, which is a loss. [Note: Ok tbh I did the maths wrong. I now think we end up 3/3 in a misshot world, but it's functionally 2/3 because Wit is, to put it bluntly, deadweight, if Village at all. But I just want to leave my original thoughts here so people can interact with them and we can consider this. There's no way E!Archer wouldn't be worried about a shot on him, so realistically, this is always an issue anyway.] -I will further add that if Mat flips Evil, I think both V!Archer and V!Devo need to understand that the Village just needs their flips. I'm cool with flipping the whole 3pool. I think staying alive never, ever beats dealing with the fact that there is no clarity on your slot, and your team just needs that clarity. The fact we are still quibbling on both Archer and Devo up to this point suggests this. And yes, this goes for me too. -If you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose this cycle, I would say I think V!Devo is more likely, but really, it's a stupid call to force me to make given the Village's strategic situation and I'd rather we exe Mat and open up some breathing room and place for Village roles to work their magic and give us a better C4, in the best possible world, while bracing for the wirst. Open to thoughts all around. -The Elims could be a 2 player team. But that's really optimistic and I don't buy it. As Village, we must always plan for the worst case scenario. -The fact that the kill was missed makes me believe that in the world where the Skybreaker is truthful, the Elims lack a Bondsmith. There's just no reason not to get the Bondsmith to bless your DK with Tension, if not make the BS just go out and do the kill anyway. Sorry Aeo, this isn't really your questions, but I think this is substantively more important to discuss. I will add I am considering if we want a second vote at all in this world. Here's my issue. 6/3 - if we have even one Village player who isn't voting, see: V!Wit world, we are functionally 5/3 at maximum voting strength. If the Elims have vote manip and vote together, they can easily hammer. It's risky for them, certainly, because it requires them to make a successful triple kill, but say if E!Archer stays alive, we could have an awkward next cycle at 3/3 versus vote manip, and the V!Wit problem. Unsure. Let's be clear, again, I'm strategising for a variety of worst case scenarios here. But I'd like everyone to think about this. Edited to add: To be clear, there is no way in hell Mat's team doesn't know Mat got scan/blocked. Apologies, double negatives are hard sometimes

Archer I don't like the feel of this cycle. It's too closed and discussion is dead and that train is too fast.

Thoughts about exeing Wit then 3pool guys?

That Wit's constant involvement in the game is at the level of terminology raises FNG questions all over again.

My main struggle with E!Mat, tbh, is I struggle to find an E!partner for him apart from Wit, who I lean V on, and the rest of 3pool, which...I then have to explain wtf Archer just dropped as though it's the next hottest album, much lest Devo's 'Mat delenda est, Archer delenda est' positions. I think anticipating and playing for a three Elim team is smart, so this is a real problem. I don't disagree with this. Ash's NKA did highlight <Devo, Mat, Wit.> This has awkward implications if I'm theorising you as Mat's E!partner. If you want to be cold, the correct reaction is that this is a reasonable response from Mat and is also NAI. If you want to be pragmatic, a significant chunk of my backing off and writing off my Mat suspicions came down to that moment, and I know the same was true for Aman. My previous Mat suspicions weren't about tells: just one very, highly specific shift of behaviour/sticking point I never got rid of. But this takes me back to the 'where tf E-partner' problem, which is a major problem for me when theorising E!Mat. I think Devo's observation of the E!TJ problem is reasonable.

Is there a reason you aren't remotely considering that? The case here isn't even 'they're all Village.' It's that you can't make a solid Elim team from all of them because it's absolutely only barely possible that the Elims are in all of them and didn't care to farm Ideals. That's just asking to lie down and have their throats cut. I joke about bro reads but this isn't about bro reads. This is about strategic priorities. They made one all-RP post yesterday. That's not gunning, that's 'you tried' STINK's RPed before, and 200 words is easy enough, across 48 hours. I note that in QF66, TJ showed up just often enough to try. He didn't even bother here. That's not really consistent with being on a faction that will be outnumbered by Second/Third Ideal Villagers if they don't actually exercise their advantage and shape up.

Do you feel the Socratic method is an effective tool, STINK?

Question for you, Archer. Does this mean your E!Devo read is essentially dependent on Mat flipping E?

@Fifth Scholar Sir can you give her an Ideal for sheer bloodyminded determination please >> Even if it does nothing

Possible but a narrow path, I think. In theory, requires the Elims to have a DB and TW/EC to pull this off. I guess it's theoretically possible they did a free ideal that way for the DB, but the EC would've been forced to RB and votejack at some point. IDK, thinking aloud. As these things aren't announced, it's possible I guess. But considering likelihood. Archer suggested Aeoryi as second, and I'm fine with that. I apologise but I do not remotely want anyone in 3pool to get second at this juncture, if it can be helped. I can sort of see a V!Archer world, but some other factors are an utter mess. Archer will get a free ideal at the end of this cycle one way or another, so I'd rather not boost that. As I've said earlier, I'm not exactly very helpful, so I don't see much utility in my getting any Ideal promotion. If TJ looks Village from most angles, I'd be cool with TJ too I guess.

Reasonable. Would point out that given the plausibility of Archer's WR claim, shooting Archer and exeing Mat appears to be the better option from your POV. Do you regard TJ as a potential Mat teammate? TJ's Archer push makes me feel he's less likely to be an Archer teammate. My restraining factor on JNV is the degree to which JNV isn't gunning ideals. I think it's fair to say the <STINK, TJ, Wit, JNV> pool may not be entirely clean but I would be very surprised if it was extremely populated with Elims. None of them are gunning ideals. JNV is theoretically but if you pay attention to the thread, they missed last cycle.

I realise this is an awkward question in the thread, but if you aren't already using it, would you be willing to shoot me a PM? Any chance of elaborating on this a bit, also?

Cool. So I presume your current theorised team isn't <Mat, Raven, Wit>, and you had more E!Archer credences than E!Ash. Where's it currently in? Are you currently viewing E!Mat as the more plausible option or E!Archer? Accepted this is an inclusive or question. Empty spaces, where others should have been. Keleran kept away the practice sword and went to tend to his duties. There was no death, in the night. No death they had feared, at the hands of traitors. Only the squad, turning on each other. Difficult enough to consider other Radiants potential traitors. Realising the weapon they were becoming, turned on themselves, rather than standing shoulder to shoulder against the relentless tide... It weighed on him, now, as the pressure once had. But the traitors were among them, and Keleran did not like the picture that was slowly coalescing. Perhaps it was Orotha who could have wielded the knife. Aradon had been seen in Orotha's company, shortly before he died, placing her among those who had the access with which to surprise and overwhelm the Lightweaver. And then there was Phil Swift. Something about Swift had never sat right with Keleran. He didn't trust the glib way the man talked, as though he was always trying to sell you something, the way his eyes darted about, as though searching for a vulnerability—or an exit. The man fought well enough, and he'd managed to bond with an honorspren, but even so. Then there was Shay. It led back to the three of them, one way or another. Keleran was determined not to be led astray by considerations of the one who styled himself a Wit. It was possible, he thought, that this 'Wit' was a turncoat too. But the way Keleran saw it, he figured the Radiant might be innocent after all. And if Wit's innocence or guilt led back to Orotha, back to Swift, and back to Shay... You did not deny the road because it was hard. It had to be walked, so you walked it. Better now, than when they were truly desperate. There was reasons to doubt all three of them. Reasons he stayed his hand and his tongue. "Are you going to watch all of them?" Ellu whispered. Keleran nodded shortly. "...There's just one of you." "Two," Keleran said. "I didn't volunteer! Someone has to watch you, Keleran!" Keleran rolled his eyes. "And why, exactly, do I need watching?" "Because you'll do something stupid, obviously," Ellu said, breezily. "Like forget to sleep, forget to eat, forget to take your rock buddies with you. You didn't think I'd forgotten that?" "Ellu, the rock buddies won't keep watch for me." "That's because it's good for you to do things for yourself," Ellu insisted, poking him with a finger. "But it's rude for you to ignore them!" Keleran sighed. "I'll find two other people," he said, trudging off. "And I'm coming along! Maybe their spren are up to gamble," Ellu cheered.

Fair, I'm basically trying to understand what your thought process is/where you are now in the game. I am not fully convinced Devo is a hit but at the same time, late Devo reversal vote absurdly threw me. Edited to add: A few more comments on the lack of kill: -Deem it unlikely the kill hit a second ED. Raven likely only ED in this game, and presence of DB#2 seems unlikely, given just one kill. -Deem it unlikely a LW intercepted a kill with their hoover: no sign of further hoovering activity in this game. Potentially Araris as the only hoovering machine. -IMO, high likelihood EC RBed or protected against a kill. Potential of SB#2 or TW protecc. If you targeted someone, please claim. If you feel uncomfortable claiming in thread, please PM me or Aeo and claim, thank you. Will do best to ensure info goes to thread. -Judging it less likely Wit was the target. However, if you have reason to believe it was you, please PM me or Aeo. Edited to add 2: Village: SB / ED / WS / LW -Thirteen players, likely at least one of each Order (personal suspicion.) -We know there's at least one SW out there. -We know there's at most one DB out there. I base this off the DB's apparent restraint, and the fact there's only one DB shot this cycle. Also, given the SB's potential to gain Division, I expect Fifth wanted to be careful with how many DBs there are. -Unlikely to be a second ED. -Archer has claimed WR - at 4WR, he gains a fairly strong protecc. So what's the Village roster like? SB / ED / WS / LW / WR (assume) / DB (assume)??? Problem with this make-up IMO is Village team seems pretty jacked. -Ash was a target scanner and had a 50% chance of surviving the first kill against him. -Raven could become untargetable every other cycle, and could gain Progression, a protecc. -Aman had a roleblock and could get a kill that scanned you even if you survived it. -Araris had a hoover which in theory could function a bit as a redirect but also a swiss army knife power and the ability to switch off Abrasion users. -Assume for the moment Archer is Village. He has a Soothe but can pick up a RB and the ability to protecc from all kills. -Assume the DB is Village. I am sort of okay with this given the DB set-up but we'll see. Has Division, can pick up Abrasion, plus an unblockable, unredirectable kill. Wtf do you put on an Elim team against this? Protecc? EC? Another WS? I think we know enough to start making informed guesses about the distro, but this is just weird to me.

Mat Because somebody is probably going to light up Archer, judging from yesterday, and I want my pool of three set on fire with a Molotov cocktail, thank you. More seriously, pending ISO/re-read/desperate prayer to the spirit of deceased Aman for guidance. Edited to add: What does Raven's flip do to your calculus? Would like to know as well why you moved back to Archer, when you previously believed Archer to be the V one between <Archer, Mat.> If we don't make any significant progress after this cycle, especially if I'm dead, I'd like to request the Village start massclaiming and taking ownership of your actions. While the kills can't be mechsolved, being able to use abilities/figure out what happened might be helpful here. I'm currently of the belief that the kill was either roleblocked or protected. If you're unwilling to claim in thread, please consider PMing me, or Aeo. Unfortunately, I don't feel comfortable making more recommendations at this juncture given the state of my reads. Info might help us make more sense of what was going on here. Edited to add 2: @Matrim's Dice: On the supposition Devo flips V, are you then committed to a low activity/volume Elim team?

Great, wonderful, thank you so much sir >> This time, we have a way of finding out. Edited to add: I want to update the pathwalking picture, before I try to look at last cycle. V!Wit World: In V!Wit world, we know two very important pieces of information: we know the Aman train and the Wit train have both exceptionally high purity. From my POV, this more or less implies one Elim in <Archer, Devo, Mat, JNV.> I don't think it as likely that both STINK and TJ are Evil. I'm semi okay with V!JNV, which means my main pool is in <Archer, Devo, Mat.> If STINK and TJ are both Village, then hitting within that pool is pretty much guaranteed to give a decent result. E!Wit World: As a side-note, in E!Wit world, I propose we have a hard time understanding why the Elims are so complacent. This is because we now know that Raven is V, and so was Ash. A significant amount of activity would've come from Village-side, in terms of who was online and voting late into the cycle. Devo was a late voter camped on Wit, and in an E!Wit world, could theoretically move off, however. STINK noted he was offline, so could not intervene. I note that STINK's last post came at about 0643hrs, with an assumed cut-off of 0700hrs, or 3 hours before rollover. The best we can say is that Wit wasn't on the radar at that time, so STINK can't be ruled out as an E!partner. However, E!STINK going off to sleep without so much as voting is a bit ? Main partners in <Archer, Mat, Devo>, with a <JNV, STINK, TJ> side. I'm ok with V!JNV I think. What's interesting for me is that just based on pure final vote analysis, regardless of Wit's alignment, I'm with a final pool of <Archer, Mat, Devo> for at least one Elim. Hard to see Devo and Archer teamed with the cross-voting from last cycle.

@Fifth Scholar- Are kills that fail for the following reasons publicly announced: A. Victim was untargetable. B. Killer was roleblocked. C. Target survived with Transportation. D. Victim was protected. Specifically, I'm asking about which types of survival cases are announced.

I've had it with the new forum update. I think it's clear it's staying as Chaos mentioned in the other thread that it's an anti-spam feature thing and we can't expect a forum update to take into account the needs of a subforum, which is fair. I think we need to adjust the "do not edit a vote in" rule or whatever or get GMs to realise that they need to refresh when looking at votes. My posts get merged and I'm sick to the back teeth of this kraem. I also think we kind of need to rely on player integrity to flag inadvertent edits, both in thread and in PM, because the merge makes new posts look as though they're part of the OG post, and that doesn't help given the no changing content rule. Or at least be aware it's a new feature. Thanks.

EDIT MAYBE LORD, SCREW THIS UPDATE I'M ABSURDLY TILTED BY IT: Is this remotely correct. YOU LEGIT V!READ ARCHER PREVIOUSLY WHY THE F IS A TIE SUDDENLY OKAY WITH YOU GUYS WHY IS THIS REPEATING AGAIN WILL SOMEONE JUST SMITE DEVO ALREADY WTH GUYS

BIG EDIT THING: If this goddamn forum update kraem puts this in my post, this section is new, guys. You theorising that the train was meant to protect Wit? Also Ash. If V!Raven world and I'm leaning towards V!Wit (maybe not sure sort of running off that impression from the C1 reread post thing), then the closest I can get to smiting a suspect is him. Can someone please post so I can put this vote somewhere new and not confuse Fifth. This bloody forum change is going to have to lead to a new rule tbh or some new way of handling the double vote rule because waiting for someone to post or getting this drek merged is absolutely not remotely feasible.

Care to give me a stronger reason than that? I can still switch trains It is, but I also don't have PC access for a decent chunk of today. I appreciate not needing to panic tbh. Current Thoughts: -Maybe V!Raven -Ngl Mat, Ash, and TJ concurring on Wit is ??? -K tryna Digimon on this com is rough so: Pretty V: Aeo Light V: Raven Null +: STINK, JNV, Wit Null: TJ, Ash OMFG I Give Up: Archer, Devo (but if Devo is Evil omfg guys I told y'all so I am done with questioning myself nonstop), Mat If there's anyone I forgot about, you're Evil because dear Lord I should not be forgetting about you at my tender young age >>

-Assuming SW would definitely message everyone. It's a free ideal. -Bracketing the weirdness with me as it seems to involve other SW madness and potential redirects. -Feel V!Raven is less likely to think through implications @Matrim's Dice. -Question was provocatively phrased. Agree with Devo unlikely actual lie, more likely ED who used Abrasion. -Do not feel is claim E!Raven would make so easily—Elims less likely to accidentally give role info and to be more careful about this, no real V cred to be gained from reply. -Wanted to ask Devo especially as Devo suggested Raven flip but imo on further reflection this looks V to me

@Devotary of Spontaneity Do you believe E!Raven makes an obviously false claim like not receiving any messages in thread?