Kasimir

Oh I see we've hit that stage of the game... Aman is brave and strong and wise and I am very proud of him.

I have thoughts about the foregoing posts but I'm tired and it's been one hell of a morning so I'll just drop this thought and engage more substantively later: Convergence on E!Aeo is concerning IMO. I think there are reasons to think E!Aeo partnered with E!Devo but given widespread commitment to E!Aeo, I'm struggling to see this as a sensible play for the Elims. In E!Aeo world, E!partner isn't theoretically letting Aeo go without a fight. Devo/Aeo should probably prefer a Devo exe to Aeo because E!Aeo is likely to still have one shot left, which could make a lethal difference here at semi lylo. If we all think E!Aeo, she's getting roleblocked. As long as one of Devo and Wit is V, we have a second roleblock in play. Hell any E!partner not Wit would probably prefer not Aeo so I think something is wrong here. Maybe. Potential distancing as well I think. I'll head off for more attempts at sleep with the observation Aman made to me at the very start of the game, which was to not underestimate Aeo because any player who substantively reads past games has significant WiM. He was concerned I was underestimating her E!range. Either way I've not made up my mind yet for obvious reasons. This is one step from lylo and if the Village has to defend at lylo, we should expect one of <STINK, me> and three in <Wit, TJ, Aeo, Devo> unless exed because the Elims will never narrow down the suspect pool for a F5. Our wincon as Village is optimally to prevent any losses by correct roleblocking. If we can't do that, our secondary wincon is to go into F5 forcing the Elims to kill within the suspect pool using our available protects and redirects. There's a world in which we can sort of tip things in our favour but this will require making a Rube Goldberg machine of actions and everyone following the plan. Even then I haven't managed to really make a tight circuit. So I don't feel it's worth going to that extent. Edited to add: I was half-asleep. Two points I alluded to but did not finish: A. Aman noted Aeo had substantial WiM and will to improve. These two combined are what makes lethal underestimation possible. B. Even at semi-lylo, we don't screw around. My vote is not locked in especially when it isn't even Rollovet yet [24 hour mark.]

Aman dead bro

What did you do C1, C2, C3? Yeah, imagine that. Archer was an Elim C1 through C3 but had the temerity to Transform into a Villager for the write-up. Damnit, Archer, show some commitment! Edited to add: This feels like a very weird exchange on two levels. Idk why this is the way to go because Wit should have way more content to analyse than me. -It's weird from TJ because this isn't remotely hung up on Devo. Aeo's post is like <everyone except Devo>, plus the throwaway line about unlikely TJ/Devo V/V. I'm not sure how TJ gets the opposite characterisation. Aeo actually really neglects Devo here. -It's weird from Aeo because Devo neglect (I'd argue if you're rethinking me even in a brief one-liner, and you're rethinking STINK, whose V credentials are fairly impeccable at this point), then rethinking Devo should be a reflex. But there's no Devo discussion at all in the post TJ quotes here: And then the section which TJ catches, but oddly enough, misses the thing that really matters: Aeo 1: Lynch Devo or TJ Aeo 2: Lynch Devo or TJ Aeo 3: It is very unlikely that TJ and Devo are V/V, and no E!Wit world unless TJ and Devo are V/V. Therefore, exe TJ then Wit. ???? If I think TJ and Devo are unlikely V/V, then the correct answer is: exe Devo if TJ flips V. If I think E!Wit is only likely in a V!TJ and V!Devo world, then I exe Wit after I exe them both. Aeo Edited to add 2: Right now, if you absolutely had to, who would you think is partnered with Aeo? Who is Evil together with her?

Bro I wanna get off Fifth and STINK's wild ride pls kthx

I did think there was a chance I'd get shot. Who was I kidding...the Elims ain't touching me because Stoneward ain't a priority I'm just a Tineye on stilts wielding a vacuum cleaner Hmm. @Fifth Scholar - Can I please confirm Mat's flip is correct, Mr GM sir >>

Let me introduce you to the rules, bhai Emphases mine. I was making art ok. So much wonderful art! Any particular other reasons why you think E!Wit? I notice you were on E!Wit C2 but that's arguably also LHF.

Any theoretical reason for Wit besides the obvious? Revising as well at this juncture. Points in favour were high energy thread engagement early in game (C1) - pretty excessive if you look at the 9 page cycle, and difficult to maintain across PMs, thread, and doc, and comfort with switching wagons at a point Elims might have gone wtf no. Also, DB and no C1 kill - expected to help Elims gun ideals IMO, since surviving a kill can very well elevate you an Ideal. So here's the thing. Mat died at 2ED, meaning that theoretically, this didn't happen. But, and here's the kicker: -We have Aeo's word for her not targeting anyone C1. If Aeo is in question, then this cannot be considered credible. -Devo targeted Mat C1 with a RB. I think this is prima facie plausible regardless of Mat's alignment due to Devo's claim to be 4EC now. I don't think this is too clear about Devo's alignment. -I targeted Mat C1 with my SW message spam. Minimally, two of these actions were necessary for Mat to have become 2ED. So what I'm saying is that we just don't really know if Aeo hit Mat C1 to help level him up or not, since Progression would be a real priority for that team. Compatible with an Aeo/Devo world. At this juncture, has to be in pool. But TJ bhai - you propose E!Wit. Who do you consider Wit's most likely E!partner?

Siiiiiiiiigh. Are we determined to make me a brokiller this game Must I Wyrm everyone. Have I become the true nemesis, my Dulabro, who STUCK FIVE KNIVES INTO MY BACK??? TJ bhai???? TJ and Wit both leave us with the same problem IMO. It's clear that a key assumption about Elim play fails with regard to either of them - with TJ, we have to explain the C2 RB, with Wit, we have to explain the C2 RB. With TJ, we have to explain his C1. With Wit, we have to explain him. Edited to add: Tbh I think this is a problem for most anyone. Aeo: Why no C1 Ideal gunning? Could easily give Mat Progression faster. (Tbf she may have targeted Mat - we'd just never know. If a kill hits Mat and no one sees it, did it happen?) TJ: Why no Tension Mat??? STINK: Why are we even considering him lmao Devo: Slight similar concerns IMO wrt vote manip, though maybe more avoidable. Tunnel areh??? Wit: Just why is Wit. Edited to add 3: - Just to be clear, the point of the section above this is sort of what Araris said in a different game. The fact that flipping Archer has landed us in this landscape implies that one of the Elims slipped past us by doing something unexpected. This can be a modelling failure or genuine Elim ingenuity, but either way, it implies a key assumption is false, so saying all these things should point to V/E is incorrect - we're in this predicament precisely because a modelling assumption is not true. Edited to add 2: @|TJ| @Devotary of Spontaneity @STINK @Aeoryi + emergency improvised Wit tag: @ΨιτιsτηεΒέsτ Hi all. 1. Action claims for each cycle, s'il vous plaît (if you've already done it, don't sweat it) 2. Who is your current, leading, speculated E!team? Please name both E!partners.

It's fine I've accepted I've cheated on TJ with all the bros I won't exe Okay more seriously - I guess there's the DeTess principle wrt Wit (anyone who seems like a null to you at endgame should be considered Evil) and Wit might not be a LW after all, but I still feel ??? about the whole set-up tbh. Our issue with C1 is Raven's intervention sort of took Wit out of danger, but I still feel...eh about how close Wit was to getting exed. Very risky place for an Elim to be, and the C2 problem all over again. Suppose, for the moment, V!TJ. How do you feel about a Devo-Aeo team?

Bhai. Archer dead >> Very dead >> Sigh. I know bhai, that is the thing I am reconsidering. But you also know you are the one* player I never wanna exe. LG96, you almost got me to back down and consider E!Archer and that was with Archer scanning you. Edited to add: *Well Aman too. Edited to add 2: *Well, I exed Aman so I guess that aged like milk. And it hurt my heart to do it... Edited to add 3: *I guess Araris as well. Edited to add 4: *How could I forget my insistence on shielding the murderpuppy Edited to add 5: *Also Holy Ruin, Destroyer of Worlds and Elims, you can't ask me to exe my god and patron Edited to add 6: *...I think at this point it's easier to just state who I'd wanna exe tbh. Edited to add 7: *I swear it's just you bhai it's always been you! Aman never meant anything to me!!

C2, C3, C4? Did you target scan anyone? Recall you were at 3EC last cycle, but could be wrong. Could be used to avoid a scan as well, though clear enough that the action was redirected, according to Fifth. Results PM indicates this. FNG play is useless without biting - same issue as deepwolves. Same argument could be theoretically made of BS wrt RB but I think Wit has been more present than TJ, hence the problem. Then why not do it C1? This. Plus, could just claim EC, which opens more room for doubt on the RB claim. The fact it was a SB claim makes it indubitable Mat was caught killing - anything lesser could be fought off. Given V!you would now know the lead trains on C3 were both Villagers (you, Archer mentioned as a CW), am curious why you consider it more than a low probability world at this juncture. No theoretical reason to surrender this much leverage, and barring a rolescan, never illuminating us on the RBed kill would've just led to speculation Elims were gunning ideals IMO. On face of it, Village's problem rn is we're tanky as all crem but need more info - fully expect Elims to be willing to play to kill denial as three potential RBs, your quasiThuglife, target scan, and Abrasion etc all in play makes it hard for kills to stick but implies we're probably stuck trying to outlast each other.

We're 4/2, STINK. I'm sorry, but I think things are uncomfortably tight, and if you think Aeo is E, then she pretty much can work out you're the SB as Wit claimed LW to her and no way in hell it was gonna be TJ. It's not lylo but it's still pretty close, so I don't think there's much to be gained from secrecy anymore. Last cycle, yes, especially with Mat trying to kanly you. This cycle, we just need to know what everyone is doing or claims to have done. All info will help at this point. Edited to add: If JNV hadn't flipped, I would probably have used them to hide you and give you more cover (sorry Holy Ruin, Destroyer of Worlds and Elims ) but I don't feel it's workable in this landscape anymore, given the full-bore suspicion trigonometry. Edited to add 2: On a pragmatic note, sorry everyone - don't think we'll be seeing much from TJ bhai for the next bit. Diwali weekend.

Bro I'm at Fourth myself... Edited to add: @STINK - My main issue has always been fundamentally - we got 48hrs, y'all. We cannot afford to squander it. I'm not in support of any kneejerk onto TJ or Devo or anyone, simpliciter. We have to work things out. We got the time, so let's use it. I think the Elims know the distro now so let's put the cards on the table. Me = 4SW You = SB, hello, lock Village. Aeo = DB. Devo = EC Wit = LW2 TJ = BS Can everyone please claim your actions. Wit, please, this goes for you too. I have been sending y'all the pretty messages and last cycle, I used Tension on STINK.

-Someone is probably going to yell at me because this has been chronic sleep shortage I'm sorry. -Need more sleep tbh. -Going to sleep more. Brutal all-nighter, thanks Elim guilt FUD tactics. Be nice if y'all can make someone else the designated target for once. Been three games of this kraem and it Ain't Fun. -Thank the Force Mat was Evil. -Planning to use the flips to rework C1, C2 voting analysis. C3 will be a bit muffed because of Mat and bussing but we can try anyway. Thanks Archer, we'll carry your work on. -RIP Holy Ruin, Destroyer of Worlds and Elims. I'm sorry I didn't get to protecc you -We have all ostensible roleclaims now. I think we need to do some serious distro looking/diving. -BS case still feels strong but idk. Want to sleep on this as the TJ case may feel less robust given Mat. -Why must Wit repeatedly feel Evil and too obvious at the same time... -Personal theory is they suspected JNV was the SB or DB which might say something about who/where. I need to recheck Mat's calculus. Again after more sleep. EDIT: Given Archer. You know. The FUD was so brutal I thought I might need to step away if Mat was Village and panicked to people because of ML guilt resurging when I thought I'd killed it and it was a white hole of panic and guilt in my head and chest that stopped everything. And yet. It's odd. I come right up to it now and I find you can endure it after all. Or that it doesn't hurt as bad as I thought it did after all. I thought I got rid of ML guilt but it still recurs sometimes. What I'm saying is yeah sorry Archer, we'll kill them for you and use the flip. As a good Village should. EDIT2: Is there a reason why I'm saying this aloud? I guess I’m tired and my filter is shot to hell. But also because IDK, if I ever see this game again will I remember? I can and have done pretty kayana things because of ML guilt. Meerkat Tineye kraem was one of them. Getting guilted into spending the whole night rethinking an obvious play isn't the worst. And yet actually looking right at the worst scenario—what feels like a preventable Village death if only I'd been a bit better/smarter/whatever in the middle of active ML guilt and realising it can be endured feeld like a revelation or zen moment somehow. God I'm legit sending messages to my future self rn in thread I’m so sorry y'all I need more sleep. Edited to add 3: Sorry, sleep not happening at the moment due to other life things but will be fixed later on. Cycle One EoD voting: Cycle Two EoD voting: Anyway. I was looking over the EoD voting. Theoretically C1 is a quiet EoD - Mat's declining to get involved but staying present feels like a clear wish to stay off a 'bad' train cf. Aman. I don't feel it's easy to keep Wit off: Mat's side-train energy suggests low commitment, but we'll see. I struggle to believe the Aman train was entirely pure. We know there's at least one Elim on the C2 Ash train, but I'm curious about the Archer train. Here's my trouble in a nutshell: I think that TJ is exeable. I think if Devo is Evil, we're in bigger trouble because she's minimally Fourth Ideal today, if she didn't get the extra life from the Fifth Ideal. Not sorry about hammer risk worries, the numbers just suck y'all. Our DB is not going to have a kill again until Fourth Ideal IMO. And this assumes the DB is Village. I don't know. Let me think through this. I'd rather not fear exe. Anyway. Let's look at the roles. I think we have enough sight of the distro to start making some educated guesses. Village+: Windrunner (Soother, roleblocker) Willshaper (Thug on stilts, target scanner) Skybreaker 1 (Roleblocker, extra kill) Skybreaker 2 (Roleblocker, extra kill) Lightweaver 1 (Redirect, swiss army knife) Lightweaver 2 (Redirect, swiss army knife) Elsecaller (Swiss army knife, Thug on stilts) Stoneward (Tineye on stilts, redirect/roleblock protecc) Bondsmith (Redirect/roleblock protecc, vote manip) Truthwatcher (Protecc, redirect) Dustbringer (Kill, untargetable) Edgedancer (Untargetable, protecc) Evil: Edgedancer (Untargetable, protecc) I think I am not interested in considering a bus. SB2 never had to claim, and giving up the deepwolf hurts. They might not have known that Archer and I were already rethinking Mat C2 (does explain Mat's insistence he was V!read and we 180-ed lol) so that's even more 'why would you do this.' And the correct answer to rethinking Mat isn't bussing - our suspicions were probably survivable. The time Mat took to reply to my post suggests he probably expected an EC, not a second Skybreaker, which complicated things - it's easier to defend against a RB charge than it is a RB scan charge. But I'm not sure, just thinking aloud. So, suppose the Skybreaker 2 is Village. I think the issue we have here is that that's still a lot of potential screw-you power on the Village-side: -WR: roleblock at WR2 -SB1: roleblock -SB2: roleblock -LW1: redirect, roleblock at LW2 -LW2: redirect, roleblock at LW2 -EC: roleblock at EC1 If all these roles are Village, it's bonkers. I think we could argue that some of these roles might be Evil: possibly both, if not one of them (italicised.) But that's still an awful lot of redirects and RBs going on, and while you could count on that messing with the map where Elims are concerned, that's still rough. For that reason, E!BS does feel like the correct call I guess. But it's rough to role-exe. The issue is, what's the other Elim team option? E!DB? Theoretically possible - Elims get a few extra shots. TW would be necessary on Village side no matter what, just due to sheer DB existence. Might explain V!ED as well, and the odds of LW proteccs, which - are more rare, but still HMM. I lean against E!Wit still. Here's the thing. I think we can explain why TJ is not gunning due to being unavailable. But the problem here I think is we gotta explain why Wit isn't doing that. The point of FNG isn't to stay alive, it's, literally, to keep your team alive and power up behind the scenes. I can't see Wit being super available and just not doing that, and Mat not going 'bruh what.' So my effective pool is now <TJ, Devo, Aeo.> Or back to <Devo, Aeo> as I was thinking just now. Devo addresses some team comp issues in that she gives them more flexibility against the 6-7 extra kills flying around - she has an occasional protecc, a partial Thug life, and...hmm. You know. And vote manip. You know... Partial Thug life...and potential extra life at 5EC. And... Hmmm. >> Edited to add X with X being a number IDER anymore: @Devotary of Spontaneity - Why'd you RB Mat C1? Edited to add X+1: DB shot twice, out of Division. SB has one shot. It had better bloody well count, especially at our numbers. Don't feel any E!SB worlds are credible for reasons already laid out.

It's 0831hrs. I've been up all night crunching through possibilities despite RL. You don't get to tell me when's enough and when's not. I'm not obligated to give you the threadbrawl you're demanding. I've considered it. My answer remains the same. Edited to add: Village—last post from me. Vote needs to remain on Mat. Mat's attempts to fearmonger all require us to be in a more dire situation than we are right now, though we are close. Nothing justifies his current insistences on kanly and his arguments are specious. We can't afford to cede the primary vote. Eyes on the goal. Anyone who tries to grab the Ideal is likely to be CWed by a late hammer. We don't have the numbers unfortunately. Remember: dead Elim >>> extra Ideal. Mat's insistence on a thunderdome should be outing in any normal Elim and he knows this. This is why he's trying to justify it by fearmongering. This is a necessary exe. Goodnight to all. See you on the other side.

We cannot afford second trains. Elims can hammer us. We have to give up second trains and just sus anyone who is not voting Mat. Please stop this. God am I glad I haven't slept yet. Edited to add: There's probably some world in which they hammer Archer into 5WR but we don't have the resources to do much about it. We have to pick our fights. @Devotary of Spontaneity - If you think the numbers support it, let people know, otherwise I'm really going to sleep because I'm done here.

-Sorry, back briefly as last set of thoughts before RL things. -Mat's aggressive phishing response doesn't strike me as intuitively Villager, actually. Reflex here for me if caught in this situation is not to ask for a democratic brawl but to A. convince I'm Village, and B. accept if not, job is to work with everyone to ensure that potential Elim pathways to profit from my death are blocked, as likelihood is there's a plan. h/t @Devotary of Spontaneity: Is this an E!slip? Edited to add: Pragmatically or otherwise, your entire argument here hinges on convincing me to drop their identity, because if not, I think the main other way you're getting it is via a mass claim. Remaining agnostic to how you or me might feel about this situation, and I will add I am quite frankly done with being the Villager that all Elims know they get to repeatedly hammer at and FUD until I crack (LG96, LG94...), I'd say convincing me pretty much matters if only because what you want done preferably needs me to comply. In fact, this entire argument hinges on constructing a convincing world in which the Elims will 'steamroll us here' if you don't know who the SB is. So...yeah.

I'm not exactly long on time this evening, so I'm allocating my time to get the most out of it, though I expect to be back several hours before EoD. Edited to add: I apologise if you feel ignored - I simply don't have the RL bandwidth at this juncture to produce pathwalking analysis in response and to deal with the ensuing back-and-forth. If you're Evil, you're obligated to go down fighting. If you're Village, the same, with the bonus of helping us make sure this isn't wasted. Unfortunately or otherwise, RL exists for me too, and I have to deal with some fires tonight so I can't give this the attention and space it deserves. Fundamentally my silence clearly indicates I'm not really convinced by this calculus. Edited to add 2: Adding one pathwalking analysis here, which isn't mine, but summarising for @Devotary of Spontaneity's benefit due to her device issues. LMK privately @Fifth Scholar et al if this violates summarising rules because it isn't sufficiently so. Or IDK if it's problematic either way but look I'm trying ok, I gtg soon. Tiring/rush night. Noting the analysis is Devo's, so it fundamentally assumes E!Archer and V!Devo. Sorry @Archer, can't control this element. I want to flag that Devo would also theoretically be close to Fourth, depending on how aggressively she does RP, so Fifth Ideal concerns are just as real for both of them. -If SB2, then hard max of four kills this cycle (exe, DB, SB2, Elim kill.) We're 6/3 - raw numbers wise, this is a loss for Village if all four occur successfully and target Villagers. -At least one of DB, SB2 are Village. -E!Mat's Progression a problem here wrt successfully taking out any suspected teammates. World A: -SB2 and DB double kill Archer to get around Progression. -Worst case in this world: V!DB, V!Mat, V!Archer, E!SB2 - 6/3 -> 3/3 Elims win by killing 2 Villagers other than Archer. [Likelihood of extra shot off-target? (Not Devo's, my thoughts.)] -Moderately bad case: E!Mat, V!Archer, E!DB, V!SB2 - 6/3 -> 3/2. Theoretically can exe E!DB to bring this back to normal levels, but difficult to distinguish this world from e!Mat, v!Archer, v!Dust, bussing e!SB2. [Odds of a bus?] Sub-World A2: -Similar but if E!Mat, E!Archer, better result. -If either e!DB or e!SB2, plausible Archer kill fails -> 5/2 -Potential also for RB/Progression to save Archer, in V!DB, V!SB2 sub-world. -Double-shot next cycle, regard as equivalent to world in which no one does anything this cycle. Exe + tension required. World B: -Don't go after Archer for fear of miskill. -Strongly unlikely Mat and SB2 both Village, therefore guaranteed a shot on an Elim either way. -If V!Mat, SB2 and Elim kill will hit Villagers anyway, so 3/3, but most of Elim team outed [Not following this - requires credences on other players other than SB2 I think. Also genuine concerns about Village voting power IMO.] Further Thoughts: -Leaning E on Mat's response here. Feel Elim reflex is to counteraccuse than search for possibilities, but also acknowledge this has been defeated by others, e.g. TJ. -Believe that all of this also still ignores fundamental plausibility of Archer's case, + visceral WiM differences. -Weak thought that E!SB2 should have RBed C1 - if so, they get an extra free kill with the difference of an effective arson C1, and an extra Ideal bump. -Weakly willing to see world in which Archer and Devo are insane. Would require me to commit to an E!Wit/E!TJ team, and IDK how likely I find that. -Feel refusal to vote here maybe a good look - bussing team would probably ask Wit to just sheep and it's an understandable case in which to do it. (Potentially withheld for hammer?) Right, goodnight everyone, have to go clear those things.

I forgot - the Araris thing does lean me against the Araris kill coming from you, TBH. We can't edit it in but that's a + point for me on you as well. Will you revote if the exe is tight? Rephrasing as a question of appearing Village v. doing the Village thing, though that's of course a loaded framing.

Do you mean this ideally

Current Thoughts: -Mat's STINK jabs make me feel alright with my V-sided STINK read. -Similar for my read of JNV, but that's also backed by JNV's player meta, tbh. I'm alright with V-sided JNV here. -I go back and forth on TJ, but think there are reasons to V!read. Mat's TJ jabs make me feel alright with V-sided TJ for now. -Not rethinking Aeo. Aeo V. -Wit...some of the things he says makes me lean V. But I agree Mat's defense isn't a good look. At the same time, again, IDK. I don't think there's a clear-cut place to go here, but slightly more inclined to think V. -The <Archer/Devo> mess I honestly don't want to touch with a stick, but. Like there's only so many times you can rethink/relook players before you just want to set them all on fire. Or is it just me? (i) The Case for E!Archer -PMed me at the start of this cycle immediately speculating about an EC WGG. Felt as though it came out of nowhere, and potentially preparing ground to try to doubt an RB claim. (Note that Elims would have known there was an RB, but not what kind of RB it was.) -Mat case felt a bit like wolf theatre. Agreed Archer put a lot of effort into it (QF59 E!Kas / E!Orlok brawl anyone?) but I didn't feel there was significant commitment there in terms of clashing with Mat. It made me question whether it was distancing. A point in Archer's favour is that Archer was discussing Mat suspicions with me prior to this cycle, so it's not like it came out of nowhere. -I still go back to Archer's opening C1 and view on ties being odd. I still think the visceral Villager reaction to ties isn't 'oh dear no roles', it's 'Oh God, no flips/info.' And I do still believe V!Archer is more provocative in a way Archer isn't being, e.g. I'd've expected V!Archer to do what Araris did that got him his V!read from me off the bat - Araris PMed me and was like "hey s'up wanna coordinate Ideals?" V!Archer did something similar in LG96 by setting up a group and my view is that proactiveness is a good look and generally more V!sided than E. I think it came really late from Archer. I'm not fond of that. -Vibe from Archer's C1 counterpush against Aman. Didn't like that. Feel V!Archer tends to have more acknowledgement of pushes against him. And the Aman push was in fact to save Mat - agreed that V!Archer who V!read E!Mat might wanna do that, but at the same time, if we are currently working on the operative assumption of E!Mat, then that's still not a good look. -Wit push as a way of pushing a LHF CW to prevent getting pushed? Devo CW not taking so wagoning Wit? Keep in mind that Archer started this cycle voting Devo, and so did Mat, in the 3pool three-cornered fight. This implies a preference for Devo over Mat. Has borne out in voting preferences so far. -Archer's insistence on E!Devo - unsure where it came from. He voiced it initially as his RPer theory but that doesn't feel like the sort of thing you build a hard suspect from. As much as I do Devo meta-reads, I personally struggle to say she's decisively in her E!meta here, which is why I have been backing off. -I think Archer's E!Devo lobbying/push is potentially part of an E!reaction to the Mat RB. -I am not sure the Aman train is entirely pure. At this point, for me, the E!candidates on the Aman train are purely <Archer, Wit.> As train instigator, there's reason to look to Archer here. +I did like Archer's C2 play better - the call to contact him and coordinate seemed more out of V!Archer. +...you know when I write it like this...what am I even working with o_O (ii) The Case for E!Devo -I feel her engagement with the cycles has been less organic than V!Devo's. It's not strikingly so as Devo is difficult to read, but this is something that I did notice. I feel Devo here has been less willing to spontaneously engage and does so more when @. -I am not sure I believe the Wit train was entirely pure, and Aeo and Ash being V means the last chance for E presence on the Wit train is Devo. I'll note though a pure Wit train is easier to believe than a pure Aman train. -Hard lobbying against Archer feels like it could be part of an E!reaction to the Mat RB. +I still liked Devo's C1 opening post. It felt very proactive, and contra-Archer, I wonder if E!Devo would really put that on the table. She's less a control player. Archer asserts it was to control the conversation but it doesn't make sense on a team without a control player IMO. +Devo's play currently and in PMs reminds me strongly of MR61 where she had built an azbantium tunnel out of multiple dead Bothans on Fifth and Drake. I think that's a point in her favour as I don't recall E!Devo having this much strength in her convictions, and if I'm honest, is the main factor that sways me in the 'gun-to-my-head' V!Devo read of the two of them in 3pool. Edited to add: -Araris kill squarely in E!Devo's kill MO. Edited to add 2: Both Archer and Devo have claimed they will stop at Fourth Ideal. I think it's worth noting, at the very least.

Tbf at Wit's experience level it's just really hard to tell ;_; K. Agreeing with Aeo here that it's just really something that I'd argue comes more from an Elim headspace, as @|TJ| found out during LG96 when he got scanned. Which brings me back to my uncertainty about how to read Wit, and basically the Archer v. Devo feud because part of me is legit wondering if they're doing a way better job of distancing than say, Archer and Mat are. Basically at the point where I don't care if I'm Elim killed because at least wrangling Archer and Devo will stop being my problem and be someone else's problem >> But yes. First problem: if SB2 is truthful, and recall, we have prima facie reason to believe so, and moreover, we have to play under this operating assumption for now, then Mat's team already knew. This means so much of this cycle has to be read through the lens of 'Is this FUD/wolf theatre meant to confuse us and convince us these players cannot possibly be teamed.' To me, that complicates how to read Wit. Wit, and this is directly at you, on the assumption this is a genuine question: you demonstrate or argue that you are Village by doing Village things. Really, by doing the same sorts of things that you yourself took into account when trying to decide what you thought of anyone else. No one else 'proved' themselves Village to you. You can never 'prove' you are Village, only make it more probable you are so. I don't think this is just wordplay because being a Villager means, fundamentally, living with uncertainty and having to simply work for the most likely options and discard farfetched ones. This comes back to what I said in my previous message: I don't care about being on thread 80% of the time. I am fine if you're here 20% or 10%. What helps me read you is my your setting down thoughts and contributions that seem Village, e.g. you appear to be trying to solve the game and taking a genuine interest in it rather than lurking, I don't have to keep @ing you, that you are, I hope but don't want to publicly know, using your role actions to help us out, that you are voting, and that if you have intel to pass along based on your role actions, pass it along. All these little things add together and help us build a picture of you and a case for you being Village. When you don't do any of that but lurk, at best, you get a null read, or even worse, are then left at the mercy of everyone squabbling about how to read you based on how Mat reacted to you. That's really unideal. Also, at the end of the day, sometimes dying is the best thing you can do for your team. It's how it is. It's rough, and not everyone is ok with this, but sometimes that gives your team the info they need ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I mention this because Aeo said earlier in one cycle that a good Villager always fights, and...eh, yes and no. Aman made the call y'all needed his flip more than y'all needed him alive and went into the good night. We can argue about whether that was the right call or not in his case, but there are times and I think this shouldn't be very controversial, where the best thing you can do is flip the player, stop arguing nonstop about it, and move on using that information. Staying alive for the purposes of staying alive isn't the point in this game, which is where all of us are in the business of balancing personal fun versus team good. No definite yardstick on when to go for which, but it's always trade-offs. Sometimes your team really doesn't need you dead, they just needed to think harder/get over themselves. At this juncture, I can't in good conscience, given the amount of wolf theatre going on, promote Wit above null, but I also just really want the damn 3pool cleared. Sorry, I'm the 3pool delenda est guy, I guess.

Ah right. No that wasn't serious, or rather, I was hoping to phish for reactions as Mat and team would already be on the alert for any sign the Village knew so I wondered if I could get a reaction by pushing for you and then 3pool first. In any cycle not lylo [i.e. when one wrong exe means we lose], there's only one response (in general) to a scan and that's to vote the scan target. If the target is wrong, vote the scanner. (This avoids the trouble that came down in the game you spectated, where Exp faked a scan during lylo.) I would absolutely not propose in any serious world going for you without a Mat flip first, and Mat flipping maf specifically. Appreciated, thank you for pitching in and stepping up You're aware Raven died already, right? Raven was Village.

Sounds like crypto fevermeme sir >:P