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Everything posted by Kasimir
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I'd argue softcleared for the moment due to disengagement. I never double down on a JNV meta clear until at least C3 or C4 which we're not going to get to see. I'd add the TKN kill IMO is a pretty bold kill because it does indicate a high level of confidence with the you, me, Stick, Illwei population this game. Well, or if you like, whichever of you/Aeo survived. This to me is indicative of the obvious: there's ast least one Spiked in this pool so they aren't going to shoot their cover. Given Stick shading TKN, killing him is a bold move and feels closer to something E!you might do. That being said, E!Stick is extremely, extremely versatile and I could see her doing something "no Elim would do" ("why kill someone you are just setting up for a ML?") to seem more Village here, cf. Toucan. My tldr; is we've backstage game-theorised together enough that I'm reluctant to give Stick easy passes here. Edited to add: Ah okay I see the Raven problem: -Either I believe, based on my current credences, E!Raven and one of E!<you, Stick, Illwei> or -E!Stick, E!Illwei or -E!you, E!<Stick, Illwei> The problem with the third situation is that Illwei and Stick cast a pretty risky vote on you. They could've gambled you were going to double but blowing up your double this early is kind of eh. I suppose the other issue is they didn't know if the other was going to double up or Aeo Soothe, but that feels within risk tolerance range. So it feels like I have to commit to Situation #1 or Situation #2 and just work out which is more insane. Honestly 2 is pretty comfortable, but that does mean that unless I think Situation #3 is coherent, it looks like I have to commit to V!you.
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Exactly my point!
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I'm curious why, despite JNV's extensively validated E v V meta disparity, you continue to insist on E!JNV here. It feels like you're pushing a FUD/paranoia exe line here and I don't like it. Hmm. Edited to add: At this point, I think anything and everything I do just validates your thoughts I'm Evil, so why waste my energy on it? If you want to flip me, you want to flip me. Sometimes Villagers just got to learn the hard way when they are wrong. I wanted a chill game and I'm not interested in fighting it. I do think the depth of this tunnel appears pretty genuine/Village to me, but I also don't care to play this game hardcore given my health issues. So in short: sure, tell that to someone who cares, because I don't Edited to add 2: To be clear: First, I'm too fast to vote. Then, I'm too convincing. Then, I'm too laize-faire. The criteria here keeps shifting and it reads to me as though you just have a deeply-entrenched belief I'm Evil and keep finding things to validate that belief. I am playing despite a wrist injury. So I ask myself - why take this engagement? Is it worth it? And I don't believe it is. I have my read of you, and I've shared it. That's enough for me.
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Have fun ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Long Game 98: A Tale of Mists and Metals
Kasimir replied to Araris Valerian's topic in Sanderson Elimination
"Again," Onon repeated, "No one here would kill a newcomer. Guest-right is a taboo so strong in most villages along this slice of the river that it would take a particularly depraved soul to violate it - or one thoroughly drunk. Dasenk was pretty clearly not Spiked. If Rilla were minded to shoot, she would've shot in Pending or Sono, if not withholding fire. The fact it was you is so bleedingly obvious only a baby would fail to see it."- 421 replies
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Long Game 98: A Tale of Mists and Metals
Kasimir replied to Araris Valerian's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Pending Onon had been waiting for this.- 421 replies
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I'm curious why you consider this a waste. In my view, a tie is a waste of time and tempo. Not looking at anyone in particular >>
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Stick - In answer to your question, lean negative. Unlike Aeo, I know better than to activity clear you, and have a healthy respect for your E play. In light of that, I don't feel comfortable with what looks like two LHF pushes on Raven and TKN. Agreed there's the danger of underestimating E!Raven but I still distrust that valence anyway. Potentially sus of Mat as well.
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Isn't the more likely answer that Mat did?
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Long Game 98: A Tale of Mists and Metals
Kasimir replied to Araris Valerian's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Everything else Onon would deal with when in less pain but this snapped him. "STOP BLAMING EVERYONE ELSE FOR YOUR BAD DECISIONS MAN!" He shouted. "Who the hell else would kill a newcomer to this very village???" It wasn't rocket bloody science. Onon had suspected if only because of that but held his peace.- 421 replies
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Can you talk me through it a bit more? Because my reflex was to ascribe TKN the charitable reading of that para and move on. I also think his status as LHF when V is causing me concern here when this currently feels like a stretch to me.
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To clarify, I was more curious about your views on the vote lock-in. I just decided to prod them for more since why not. Edit: @Stick. Also curious—how do you go from "intentional attempt at a derpclear" to "why did you phrase it in the most elimmy way possible"?
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It's different from what was going on in the thread. Curious why that wasn't the intuitive read here? Interesting. Interesting. Thank you. Mild here. Could you elaborate? Edited to add: @Stick. Sis, curious about your take now.
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Personal level — I've had aggressive Village games where I'm fast to vote if I'm on at game start. No idea about maf games because I scrubbed them from memory. Sure they're usually couched in RP and less blatant but. Strategic level — Village always needs to get off arse and vote. I've written posts on this (we were all young and angry once) that have been embarrassingly cited way too many times which I don't fully agree with anymore but that lay out this reasoning in further detail and that’s one reason I don't want to get into it. Village cannot afford in general to sit and wait and players that do tend to do so indebted to the early flurry of activity and pressure. Tactical level — as you pointed out and it's a counterpoint to Raven, bad Elim tactics. Agreed that people can say whatever but Raven's not made the second move yet which is what people do matters more because it shows their tactical priorities. Doing lies less than saying. This is diluted by the fact that if E!me screwed up, then E!me screwed up, but it'd still be tactically bad to burn the vote that early. Why I didn't care to go into it: -Typing sucks -This is an early game for Raven and I don’t want to discourage him from exploring or committing to his suspicions -I don't want to talk meta at this stage, also see earlier point EDIT: I guess you could also point out there's the third level which is where you learn to compare what they do TO what they say but that's a new heuristic level I’m sparing my wrist from.
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Tbh that's pretty bad reasoning on at least two levels but I don't care to talk you out of it. If you really, genuinely feel I am Elim, go ahead and vote for me. That's the point of your vote - it's the 'no I want u dead' button that only you get to push. It's your biggest superpower so use it wisely, and part of it in my view does involve following your heart or your considerations rather than anyone else's. Obviously think it through etc. because Village discussion matters but if you think you are right, then go for it.
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Anyway that symbol (for Mat) was my very mild V read symbol. You can probably guess what tempted me there as we've talked about it before wrt reading Mat but I'm still holding out for certain other things I find more indicative etc. But also suggest you keep in mind this is Raven's second game - if we don't count the fact LG98 had a do-over, and he just got N1ed in the second run, so would suggest factoring that in when trying to read Raven. Ngl this game has been a succession of 'did not read the rules' fail from the forgetting about the votes, to the please @ whoever you are voting for, to do not repeatedly use red, to my now discovering for the first time what the Elim wincon is via your post. But in my defense I dgaf about the Elim wincon I just wanna find Elims and chill ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You're not wrong about my being more cautious about the rules if E, but that's a me-statement, and we know how far those go. Edited to add: Stick: "SE is a simple game" Stick: "You generally just talk to other players and share reads etc" Kas: "And in the end the Elims sweep the Village "
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The counterpoint here is that if I made a mistake, I made a mistake, and while I have my opinions on the odds of E!me not actually doublechecking the rules, they're strictly irrelevant here since this is me we're talking about, and from that perspective, it's possible even if not strictly speaking, equiplausible. FWIW I see why Illwei took that line of reasoning and why you are sympathetic to it - I'm just provoking Raven here and pushing some Mat buttons because some kels want to watch the world burn
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Do you want to guess before I award you one for no reason other than the fact I want to Cool, tell that to someone who cares
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@Ookla the Bald @Ookla the Destined Interested in your thoughts on this vote mechanic. How should it be used? Do you see it as V!leaning or E!leaning? I am explicitly banning @Stick. from answering because I don't want to hear from demons U_U (Sorry sis)
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Long Game 98: A Tale of Mists and Metals
Kasimir replied to Araris Valerian's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Onon had come to the awkward conclusion he'd zoned out and sped through Mayor Arwhin's morning announcements. For this reason, he'd mistakenly concluded that Rem'd been shot and Revir stabbed and murdered, having just seen the word 'coin' and making the (in)appropriate assumption. This changed the shape of things significantly: a Spiked assault on Rem was less unexpected than one on Revir. Though it raised itself a number of questions, which he dutifully scribbled: "I'm interested in the speed and strength of your conclusions, Sirta. And if you won't answer, then my accusation will speak for my thoughts on the matter."- 421 replies
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Long Game 98: A Tale of Mists and Metals
Kasimir replied to Araris Valerian's topic in Sanderson Elimination
That was the crux of it, wasn't it? Which really meant that one way or another, they probably had to flip someone, simply to get more information and peace of mind as to how this was working. There were complications as far as Onon could see when it came to triangulating on the Coinshot which meant the most likely move at this juncture was flipping one of Rem or Sono. And still, Onon wanted some pressure on Sirta, for Sirta felt like he was making a powerful set of assumptions here. And still Onon did not know what to think about Rilla either.- 421 replies
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A bit more so if Village pulls a me and locks votes early enough to be unable to avoid a hammer.
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I fully intend to continue indicating who I'd vote if I could, it just doesn't feel the saaaaame I miss my ability to radiate killing intent with a single vote and I haven't even finished C1 of this game yet ;-;
