Kasimir

Fair. Btw did you know balefire auto kills a Myderaal but not a Blademaster? I'm considering Aeo over Mat very slightly for the moment but this has to do with thoughts about the sort of team that would have Aet in this kind of position because I don't fully think Aet was actually screwed and I struggle to see Mat okay with this.

What do you make of Aeo pushing you this Turn? Do you suppose she's trying to get a Shield on you for tonight? Edit: I'll add an Illuminator also makes sense on an Elim team. One channeller, one role that can shut down weaves and physical actions. I don't feel it's hard and fast here and I suspect Aeo is actually an Illuminator which explains why she doesn't distinguish between weaveblocking and physicalblocking.

1. @Ashbringer 2. Kasimir 3. @xinoehp512 4. @The Unknown Ajah 5. @Elandera 6. You 7. @Stick. 8. @Aeoryi 9. @DrakeMarshall I skipped a few inactives here but they can yell at me if I miss them. I can't immediately answer if I have a ruleset ready to run. I need to get sleep first.

How does it do so? Edited to add: Specifically I don't see any role except Araris's as pointing me towards a two-Channeller team. Illuminator is a double-block, and I don't feel there's a Village-leaning excuse for not physicalblocking last Night. You also cited reservations about Mat's role. Fundamentally if you want me to get on board with a distro argument here, you need to be specific because this feels fishy. Edited to add 2: Be me. Have stats so cursed I can't actually channel any weave at all and yet somehow I'm still having to care about weave maths. Edited to add 3: I need to check the regex for Aeternum. It looks like Stick's vote doesn't count for some reason? I can't see her taking it back but it should be 4 on Aet AFAICT right now. No, it's 5 - Aeo's vote not reflected either. I think the regex doesn't accept Aeternum. I'll fix it in a bit. @Aeoryi Second question I suppose. In your theorised two channeller world, how do you propose to stop them from Compulsion-jacking the vote and hammering to kill anyone not Aet? Keep in mind I can't actually make any weaves. In your Stick/Aet world, one thing I see happening: Compulsion-hammer you -> 3/2 NK + Fireball, win. Alternatively: Compulsion-hammer you -> 3/2 NK (Fireball failed) -> 2/2 Compulsion-hammer Mat and Bee, win. I would still like more to go on than "trust me, my role which I can't talk about suggests two channellers" but I think a two channeller world presents immediate tactical problems when I can't do any weave, and when Compulsion beats Amrylin votejack each time. Edited to add X: My point of bringing this up isn't to not vote Aet. I firmly believe we have to vote Aet. It's to point to two things: first, are there countermeasures we can take in a two channeller world? If so, we should discuss them, as well as the reasons for thinking two channeller (I'm not convinced when it's just a 'trust me my role says so.') If not, and the game doesn't end with this exe, doesn't that indicate there's prima facie reason to think the two channeller world doesn't hold? In most worlds, Stick and Aet likely have the stats for Compulsion, meaning that simpliciter we cannot stop a hammer. So what do you propose we do then? If Aeo is a channeller, that's one thing. Mat and Bee have claimed non-channellers. If Stick is Village (my current line of thought), then obviously we have more room to block in a two-channeller world, e.g. / i.e. Stick Shielding Aet. Edited to add X+1: @The Unknown Ajah Tallybot is getting fixed, courtesy of Drake who is irrationally upset/wrathful and of the view that Aeo and Stick are E/E for murdering Tallybot in the exact same way This just in: the issue was that both Aeo and Stick had satanic votes that Tallybot thought was 'chocolate' rather than red. This raises all sorts of questions about Tallybot's culinary tastes but probably just means that Stick and Aeo have been corrupting poor innocent murderpuppy Tallybot with all sorts of vile blood-slathered candy. Actually I quote Drake:

Will do. Ask @Araris Valerian but at this stage I think it's possible to just fit your schedule rather than go through the whole cycle. We actually just doubled two QFs back to back.

Hold up. There's a bigger problem here IMO. Why would they Fireball CadCom specifically? That hypothesis suggests they know Araris was Lord of Luck. There's nothing particularly gained by Fireballing CadCom in particular. I'm willing to relook Stick with everyone else when considering potential partners but it just feels odd when Lord of Luck wasn't really on anyone's mind and Araris isn't the claim happy sort. I'm also wondering about the basis on which we say there's a asymmetry in stats? Like...the rules state: On paper my stats look fine—they block me from weaves because my 1 is in Air, which means my Fire and Water stats are irrelevant, and I got unlucky and had a 4 in Earth instead of 5 which locks me out of Earthquake. With a 1 in Spirit, my isolation from the magic system is complete I guess what I'm saying is cracked stats feels relative. Everyone has a megastat. Mine is unuseful and Aet, Stick, and CadCom all claim 5s in Spirit. We know CadCom's megastat was a Water 5. We don't have data on Wierdo. I think it's clear there aren't two Fire 5s to go around or we'd be seeing more fireballs IMO. I'm not sure therefore there's a strong distribution to be had. EDIT: And honestly if TUA allowed Elims to have two Fire 5s, we need to speak to the manager >> Edit 2: @Stick. Question for you. You said you were considering Healing or using Harden Air. When I asked you how you expected to do it with 1 Air, you said you expected to Link. How exactly did you expect to link when you claim to not have put in a PM order? @Aeoryi fwiw if your 2 Channeller theory is correct though we are probably in a tight spot unless you can channel because if they can both use Compulsion, we are looking at a bigger vote swing. Compulsion also beats my votejack.

You can always openwoof ig. Drake claims my opinion of being Elim will change when I openwoof for the first time I think his husky braincell strikes again.

To be honest if Aet was truthful, I'm slightly suspicious of Mat. It's an if yes but largely for reasons to do with the claimed Shield. Both Stick and Mat knew I was looking for partners to Heal CadCom. Shielding strikes me as just the sort of thing you do to try to block me from Healing CadCom, though I agree it is certainly possible the Elims just took the stab anyway. I think you would have to for instance. There's no point in linking btw. If you hypothesise a 2 Channeller world, then one of Stick/Aet must have busted stats. The only world in which they can link and Fireball CadCom is one in which one of them has 5 Fire. Anything less will objectively not allow the kill. A one stat increase also doesn't work because it affects your lowest stat which a 4 or 5 Fire will never be. Furthermore, linking only gets them to 40% success rate. 35% if one of them puts in the kill. If so why even link? Just concentrate and let the other guy stab. You still get 40%. But then this hypothesised scenario doesn't require Channeller #2 at all. But I also don't really believe Stick and Aet are teamed. I'm looking at the N1 bit where Stick calls out Aet's read inconsistency on them—that's not an E/E interaction at all. If it were, they would make more hay of it D1.

Sorry. I was just feeling increasingly frustrated and thinking aloud. EDIT: @Aeternum Your account has a three digit number of posts. I assumed it parlayed into multiple games. Long story can't say more for reasons but it wasn't me who brought it up. Essentially even disregarding MU, no one who tried the post reads in your D1 alone in Drake's game should be treated like a tyro is my view. If you can perform that sort of analysis, then you know enough about the game dynamics to know what the value play here is.

Is there really a point? With all due respect, I've just come off a game with V!Aet. This isn't his first rodeo and his analysis patterns and Aeo's link both indicate he has played extensively on MU. Extensively enough that: A. He knows exactly what the stakes are for the Village right now, B. Is therefore, with all due respect as I myself had 0 WiM early on, making a deliberate choice if Village to play like a Jester/Fool. I think by this point asking him to make a good Village case isn't really the point. He knows the score and the situation as well as we do. The sense that this is a deliberate choice is what hardens my perspective of this exe because I'm perfectly sure we all know what's at stake. I can respect Aet's decision to go to soft openwoofing here. I just don't feel requesting him to try just a bit more for the Village is helpful at this point. Edited to add: In a subset of players, I could see having to remind them my vote is never locked until EoD and that moreover if they are Village, I am open to persuasion and that they should leave us with the best positioning to go forwards. I'm trying to phrase this carefully because as I said, I had 0 WiM early on and I hate being E in general and you remember me in Striker's MR. Utter disaster. With all of that, maybe more than anything else, I cannot believe an experienced player who is aware of the tightness of the numbers needs to be cajoled and begged into being Village if Village, or reminded of the need to help the Village after death if they have accepted the misexe as inevitable. Perhaps it really is negative WiM. But it's a bridge too far for me.

You have an inactive priority slot. This means if you reactivate, you are at the top of the QF queue. @ me if you'd like to be reactivated!

So just to clarify, if Aet flips E, from your perspective, Aet's partner has to be in <Stick, Bee, me>? Edited to add: Tbh that commits you to Aet's partner in <Bee, me> I think — Aet's D1 read slippage on Stick isn't E/E.

That's how the Warder link works yes.

>Most powerful woman in the Tower >Cannot perform basic weaves without assistance Fair. I'll want to look in the morning. I recall Mat had a post casing Aet but also felt it arrived late after Aet looked sus as a result of D1. Feeling lazy is normal as this was me for the first chunk of the game + law class but I'd also done the work highlighting the meta difference for him but he sort of didn't want to touch it D1. Need to re-read. Tbf Bee may very well be self-resolving via Warder link.

How so? How tf do you, Stick, and CadCom all get 5 Spirit what is this blatant Kas erasure

You and Stick both I feel like a Sanderson character tbh. Can't weave without a damn link smh.

Yeah.

Yeah I'm just assuming V!Stick for the moment and lightly assuming E!Aet. Both Stick and I are Shield candidates. Aet can try to Shield me but the joke's on him as with a glorious 1 Spirit, 1 Air, I actually cannot do any weaves at all without a link. I have 4 Earth which doesn't do anything for me. He can still try me on the assumption I'm lying. The other route has him Shield Stick to take balefire off the table. I'm trying to reduce the problems for Village in that world — my solution is for her to Shield Aet this Turn, and if she loses the statblock war, link with me so we have a 50% chance her statblock returns to play. What's your view on the RBM claim? I remember you mentioned you feel Bee could be lying. Edit: I would sharpen this to say I don't understand the claimed action coming from a Village mindset and that I also think that if truthful, failure is likely from putting in the kill and using the physical slot.

In case I forget: in the world they try to Shield you, link with me tonight unless Aeo can link too. It's a 50% chance but I can use your statblock that way, which gets around the Shield. Edited to add: @Stick. I'd actually suggest you Shield Aet to try to prevent this. I don’t have enough Spirit to Shield unfortunately. Aet can probably try to countershield you but this becomes a statblock war between both of you, and since you can balefire, your statblock might be swole enough to win.

Village with a mechanically impossible failure But no, agreed. Edited to add: @Stick. Tell me the truth...you forgot to concentrate and TUA told you that and then you were like "oh yes I'm concentrating"...?

I heard that in a London accent. IDK why.

TUA has replied. He's claimed to have made a post in this thread but I can't see it. Possible it got eaten up by forum wyrms I guess. @The Unknown Ajah just to actually share the ruling. A. Balefire beats foxhead. RIP Araris. B. If you do not do other weaves or take a physical action, TUA assumes the player is concentrating. Aet

Can you say a bit more about that? IDK bro I get you have low WiM but at this point, it feels like pulling teeth to press each question. The. Disrespect Edited to add: Like. Ok. I don't know how to put it, but...where's the near-lylo urgency. I get it but if you are Village you are not helping. And that's a hard pill to swallow when every single piece of information has to be an interrogation. I'm raising an eyebrow at Aeo's "I didn't feel like putting in an action tbh" too. I'm pretty much halfway to this but about Stick rn: Just balefire the damn tower and start over again, it's the only way to be sure.

On the one hand I wanted to yell at the thought you decided to be spicy enough and not say you are concentrating and run with the 5% success chance. On the other hand, I also shouldn't be annoyed because this means that the balefire could've failed. On the third hand... You killing V!Araris without even concentrating is the ultimate disrespect Edited to add: So to be clear: A. If Stick is correct, Aet is lying. You are informed if you are Shielded. B. If I am correct, Stick is lying. And both of these are waiting for TUA to return from the war?

I mean there's an added layer of - sure it'd prove I'm Amrylin but that's the most pointless role confirmation ever because Amrylin can be of either alignment... Dragon is confV. If she's Dragon, then she's especially off limits.