Kasimir

RIP my dude

I'm down for this. I'm always down for the chance to burn the sick and twisted in Heaven's purifying fire

Aight. For the record, if I'm somehow not dead tonight, my vote will be on Aeo, if it helps with this. Edited to add: Like ok in theory yes, play to the end at lylo, but also...tbh, if Stick is right and Aeo is openwolfing then I'm less convinced it's worth spending the emotional and mental energy trying to get it right.

Yeah. @The Unknown Ajah Any chance we can ask for a bit of an acceleration on the last two Turns, or doesn't work for your schedule? @Elandera as well. We'd definitely need everyone to agree, but feels weird sitting it out for two 48 hour cycles when faction lines are drawn at the moment.

I know, I was curious about whether you can do it for a Complexity 6 weave, but have my answer.

@The Unknown Ajah - Question for you: can the Forsaken cast Sever or does the Forsaken need to link to do this? I'm unsure if the autosuccess matters here.

RIP Bee Can we have a vc by the way? Edited to add: Were you Shielded?

No. Winter's Heart is 9, Crossroads is 10. I only know this because I read WoT around the time we thought Crossroads was going to be the last book ever, but also we should probably stop it since the Turn is over >>

@Stick. This backfired the last time so hoping it doesn't now Tfw u combine powers to fight Evil!!

Tfw you are the one Fighter in a party of arcane casters: Though tbf Bee's also rn like: "Yep I'm just going to stand right here, my Aes Sedai is Evil y'all gotta murder her that's just the way it's gonna be."

I didn't really consider them openwoofing but yeah the evidence is overwhelming your Honour The prosecution rests its case, having fulfilled both the standard of proof and the burden of proof. Edited to add: Obligatory

I gotchu sis o7 We can worry about the best cour Edited to add: Btw am curious why you said: I'm not sure 'both outed' is it in my head but yeah I'm quite sold on E!Aeo.

Technically what you are looking for is something like: P(Beat Aet) = P(Stick win Link & Shield works) + P(Kas wins Link & Shield works) = 0.5 x 0.6 + 0.5 x 0.55 = 0.3 + 0.275 =0.575 In the world I don't votejack, it's a straight-up 0.6 chance. You can argue that there's no real point in getting a 0.025 chance more of success, which is fair as that's kind of small. If Aet is voted out, there's a 50% chance you die, yes. I'm sorry, but Aet is Evil so we kind of need to do this. Edited to add: It's not the end of the world if we don't beat Aet honestly. If we don't beat Aet, we exe Aet, then hope you don't die. Aet Shields Stick. We go into the night at either 4/1 or 3/1. During the Night, P(Aeo dies) = P(I win Link & Balefire works) = 0.5 x 0.15 =0.075 It is overwhelmingly unlikely I can balefire Aeo in that world. So likely Aeo kills me, and you all go 3/1 or 2/1 into the Day. If Aeo has no votejack, then all you all need to do is to vote Aeo to win. If Aeo has a votejack, then we need Stick have broken the Shield at Night, then Compel Aeo to self-vote in the Day to win. Given my balefire odds are awful, I think Stick should break the Shield at Night instead. There's a whole bunch of cointosses here and there but basically we have a fairly decent chance of winning overall. Several key decision points to takeaway, i.e. tldr; DP1. If Stick and I Link, we have between a 0.575 to 0.6 chance of stopping Aet from Shielding Stick. If Stick Shields on her own, this goes down to her stats v. Aet's. We don't know enough about Aet's stats IMO, but Stick has three stats maxxed, so may stand a decent chance of beating Aet in a Shield duel. DP2. If Stick is Shielded, I can link with her for a 0.075 chance of killing Aeo, or she can take a 0.6 chance to break the Shield. She absolutely has the stats to use Compulsion in the Day. In my view, the choice at DP2 is clear - better to break the Shield. ( @The Unknown Ajah Can Stick Concentrate to break a Shield btw?) At DP1, less clear, as the difference between 0.575 and 0.6 is really minimal. I'm just correcting Stick in case she had the mistaken idea a link means both Shields go through - that's not how it works. To be clear, I currently have a link with Stick to Shield Aet order and a votejack order.

To be clear you understand how this works: 1. If we link, TUA flips a coin for who gets to use the link. 2. If you win, you have a 60% chance your Shield works. My Shield does not count. 3. If I win, I have a 55% chance my Shield works. Your Shield does not count. 4. As long as the Shield works, we beat Aet. This is in link world.

Np. It's under Housekeeping:

No you can't do that unless you can channel a weave. What you can do is just send in an order to create PMs. This is a physical action. When it goes through, next Turn, you can create any number of one on one PMs you like. Next Turn, would likely ask for a PM with you yeah, if you don't mind!

Yeah, sending in a PM order. If you don't die, which is what I'm hoping for, fingers crossed, burn something to RNGesus, then you can send PMs freely next Turn.

You called I came.

I'll confirm my stance after the weekend. There's a dueling cards MR ruleset Drake and I have bounced around but am not fully sure it's ready. Edited to add: I have a MR I'd forgotten existed and am willing to run it. However, it's a shogun meme MR that Drake and I came up with, is that okay? Alternatively I have a weird Secret Hitler MR.

Listen, you are doing a valuable contribution it's not your fault TUA has not understood the glory of dueling rules 1. In a world Stick and I don't link, if you Shield me, Stick's auto goes through, so that's a loss for you. 2. If Stick and I link and win the 60% flip, then essentially you lose. Stick and I have different max stats so it is pretty unlikely you are beating it unless Aeo is also Aes Sedai. If Aeo is also Aes Sedai, our odds at Night changes anyway so I don't particularly care to game out that world. So, my actual V!Stick thoughts in my GM PM I never put in thread: Tbh I've been lying about my stats hoping to catch Aet offguard with a quiet Shield, but TUA's ruling indicates that a three person chain might end up with both of you shielded, which is no bueno, so: Sent in link and Shield order. Dovie'andi se tovya sagain. @Stick. You want me to send in an Amrylin votejack also? I can but am just noting that if I do, Shield on my end drops to 55% success rate. (Edit: To be clear, Aet is not getting a Compulsion off unless we fail to shield, i.e. the 60% flip fails.) Edited to add 2: @Mat Yo btw did you put in a PM order last Turn? If not, can you do it this Turn? @RoyalBeeMage Feel free to join in if you want to.

Posting separately to everyone is aware: Tallybot has been fixed! Chocolate is now considered blood-red! The tally: @The Unknown Ajah

@The Unknown Ajah? (It just has no circle...) I see the OoA lists it as a Night Kill though: It's same OoA tier actually, but I think you may be right that weave beats RB? Let me recheck the rules. So this is the same priority order: Aeo RBs you, you beat her to Shielding Aet. So yeah that bit is not a worry. You and Aet hit each other with weaves of the same complexity, so whichever of you has the higher combined statblock wins. IMO you stand a decent chance of beating Aet or going into a coinflip, based off what I know of your stats. If not, yeah it's a coinflip as to who goes first. @The Unknown Ajah My personal read was that Shield should prevent one of you from Shielding the other based on whoever wins the Shield duel but it's possible that TUA just rules it's a mutual block, I guess, in which case both of you are Shielded. You do prevent Aet from using Compulsion in that world so it's not a wash. Basically you and I have to link at Night and I have to roll the dice with your Balefire and hope to win a 50% then 15% roll. I don't think it's the worst because if you break free during the Night, you should have the stats to use Compulsion to force Aeo to self-vote. Aeo might try to RB you - you don't have priority on that one, so if it's lylo, I'd suggest going Seal Against People and Compulsion as dual weaves to try to force her to fail but also get Mat onside. (Again, less complicated world IMO if either you or Mat are Evil since Aeo can sit on that so not interested in spending more time on it.) If Bee doesn't die, that's another good thing. Edited to add: @Stick. - One other possibility. We both link and we both Shield Aet. This reduces it to a complexity 2 weave, at 60%. This is A. if you want to take a chance your shield goes through, and B. guarantee overpowering Aet if TUA confirms that a Shield duel ends up with only one player shielded. ( @The Unknown Ajah?) It guarantees overpowering because we'll have a combined statblock of 5 Spirit 5 Fire 4 Earth. Ignoring all other stats, it's unlikely Aet beats this. Our combined Air stat increases to 2, which will beat Aet's lowest stat as well. But you offload the risk here to the risk the shield doesn't work. What I can say for how to assess chances: E.g. in my case. Lowest stat: I have an Air stat of 1 so that's the maximum in the lowest stat category. Aet can only equal me there, which would mean coinflip. Stat [2-3]: I have Fire and Water at 3/2, meaning the only way Aet beats this is by having 3/3 in his two [2-3] stats. Highest stat: I have Earth at 4, so easily beaten if Aet has 5 for highest stat. Spirit: 1. Pretty much anything from Aet beats or equals this. AFAICT, you have maxed out three stat categories, so odds are probably decent you can beat Aet. You can probably work out your odds here, even if I think you shouldn't say it aloud. My stats are cursed af and I can't channel so I don't particularly care

Fair. I'm hinging quite a bit on psych profile read tbh. Why so? Sis, have a question for you. This is in terms of how to proceed. I've entertained Aeo a bit on how I don't feel we can do very much in an E!you/E!Aet world. That being said, I want to entertain an E!Aeo world for the moment. If we take Mat at his word as BM, he can't interfere with this cycle. Here's my view of E!Aeo's PtV: This Day: we exe Aet. Aet shields you and Aeo RBs you. You auto-lose the war with Aet and are Shielded. This takes your balefire off the table. Aeo would obviously justify RBing you as fear of a two-channeller votejack play IMO, to still appear Village. Ideally for Aet/Aeo, Bee dies. We go 3/1 into the Night. N2: Aeo kills me and RBs me. You are Shielded so you would not be able to use balefire since your first chance to break free is that Night. Tbf I don't think RBing me does anything because balefire beats the RB so I'd have to go and use balefire in a link with you, hope to get the 50% coinflip, and shoot correctly (Aeo, not Mat.) On the assumption the balefire fails (50% coinflip and then 15% success rate for me), I die. 2/1 into the Day. Aeo aims to get Mat to exe you at lylo and then win. It's a bit more complicated if Bee doesn't die, so we hope for that. I don't know if it is worth us linking today. That's what I'm heading towards, as a hedge against E!Aeo. Part of it depends on TUA's ruling on Seal, but in general as a rule, weave beats physical action. The idea is: We link, and we both cast the following weaves: 1. Seal Against People = 85% - 10% = 75% - you cast it on yourself, I cast it on myself. We alter our action accordingly. This prevents Aeo from RBing us (I think) as Seal physicalblocks a player who targets you with non-lethal physical actions. It is also top on OoA. 2. Shield Aet = 60% - 10% = 50%. We both cast this on Aet. I'm not sure if stating this as a suggestion allows a hammer from them which is my one worry. (If Aet is Forsaken, Aet likely tries to votejack me because as Amrylin, I break the tie, so the vote splits 2/2 and they hammer you IMO since I can't do anything. If Aet isn't Forsaken, then they both shift their votes for 3/2. I could votejack Aet or Aeo to prevent this, but this reduces the efficacy of Seal and Shield by 5%.) ...I am willing to accept I am too paranoid But I feel Aeo's posts still sound tempo-driven which makes me wonder about agenda. Edited to add 2: I'm not as paranoid about E!Mat because if E!Mat, V!Aeo, she can sit on him. In any world you have Balefire at Night, you are Village, so it doesn't matter, and in an E!you world, any weave short of Balefire, Harden Air, and Seal, she can sit on.

Agreed. Well, my objections to the Araris shot weren't the ones she raised. So yeah I could see that. Fundamentally I agree with the <Aeo, Mat> PoE here IMO. I think disqualifying Bee is something everyone else generally agrees on but the last interaction here alone doesn't look E/E. Tbh the main thing I have is it sometimes feels like Mat's just vibing but that's not a bad place to be when Aet was under pressure for two back-to-back Turns: in that sense, Aeo feels more like she has an agenda to push and I'm considering if her pushing you is less two channeller theory and more an attempt to get rid of balefire before it comes back on the table tonight since it can't be roleblocked. It's awkward when I'm more willing to read Mat positively because he's not trying to sell me anything, but it is what it is, I suppose Edited to add: Mat's Aet megapost here. Stuff I'm noticing: Notable since we now know E!Aet - this suggests high confidence but also little perceived threat from Aeo. I re-read Mat's link but don't actually see what he's referring to btw - @Mat, can you sort of walk me through your thinking? Also why you just went on Aet first thing today, please. What I'm seeing are non-interactions with surprisingly little contact IMO - in general, Aet backs down and Aet and Aeo seldom clash. Aet says this but still has Araris in nulls which is ? (not an Araris defense!) As a side comment, Aet has managed to avoid giving any negative reads at this juncture. My sense at this point is that Aet is more likely to avoid offering too quick a Village read of a teammate, especially given the high volume of more or less null/wash reads. This points me towards E!Aeo more than E!Mat or E!Stick as options. Aeo softballs Aet in her longpost IMO. I kind of feel like I'd expect E!Mat to point this out? This is all Aet gets: Non-comment. Keep in mind at this point Aeo is working with a theory of an Araris/me team. This means that she's got Aet as an extremely deprioritised E in phrasing: Araris/me > Aet. This really isn't much contact with Aet IMO. And on Aet's part, this is his response: Immediate response: joke. Consistent with LG99. Longer-term response: And...it's a non-response. For someone who likes Araris's reasoning, Aet isn't very interested in pushing back against Aeo's claim that this makes him E/E with Araris! So much of Aet's responses here are queries, or just backpedalling. There's this but it doesn't really go anywhere. Recap: at this point, Aet has put Stick as mildly Village and washed that read a little. Aet has also V!read Mat here for this post. @Stick. In your view, is this E/E? I have my thoughts on this but am bracketing for the moment. Recap: Mat mentions D1 interactions between Aet and Aeo but IMO they actually read more E/E-plausible than Mat thinks in my view. I think E!Aet tends to be less assertive and to play more defensively; he has ascribed explicit V reads to Stick and Mat, but sort of wishy-washy refrained from making an Aeo comment and softballed poked back at her Araris stance. I think N1!Mat's thought here was that E!Aet would do wolf theatre but I actually think that's the wrong take - I don't see E!Aet as the sort of E!player who is psychologically confident enough to go out (mentioned as well in Drake's QF when V!Aet admitted he has confidence issues in playing a dynamic driver role as an Elim and feels intimidated), and that's why we have that sort of half-hearted swipe from Aet while Aeo has him as a washed-down E read. And...this carries into N1. Aet's reaction to Mat's longpost is to say this: V!reading Mat again (when he already had Mat as Village anyway?) suggests a lack of caution around ascribing reads to Mat, particularly when Aet is thinking about being flipped, and as we know, of the view that he is likely to be flipped soon. In that world, I struggle to see E!Aet just throwing a V!read to E!Mat and rolling the dice. Current state of thoughts.

MU versus SE Well, add the level of FUD as well. Mat voted Aet before it was that foregone, whereas Aeo aggressively brawled you. IMO the movement here feels more like Aeo resisting the Aet exe than Mat because of that. But I'm waiting for TUA to reply as I may have a theory. Really I'm V!reading you on a few grounds, having re-read, and Bee blatantly wanting to save Aet doesn't feel staged imo.